Chapter 1. Introduction
1.3 Framework
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1.2 Research Question
The aim of this study is to understand what Russian people who study or teach Chinese think about the Confucius Institutes, and how this organization operates in general in Russia. So the main research question is:
RQ: What attitude do Russians, who study or teach Chinese language, have towards the CI?
This particular target group was chosen because these people are to a great extent connected with the sinological circles of Russia. They could have better understanding of Confucius Institute than those who are not studying or teaching Chinese language. That is why I decided to focus my research on them. Through getting answers to this question we could receive more comprehensive vision on the development of the CIs in Russia, on the example of Moscow.
1.3 Framework
This study aims at defining the attitude of Russian people (on the example of Moscow) towards the development of the Confucius Institute in Russia. Taking into account the current relations between Russia and China which are described as “the best in history”4, the number of Russians who are studying Chinese either at home or in China or Taiwan it could be assumed that general impression of people towards the Confucius Institute is positive. The independent and dependent variables which will bring us to the hypothesis should be defined. The dependent variables for this study are the following:
1.3.1. Dependent Variables
1. Attitude towards the People’s Republic of China
It is very important to understand the attitude of people towards China. If they have a positive image of the country, then it might be assumed that they are also positive towards its initiatives, like the Confucius Institute, for example. However, if they do not like China, they might have negative impression about the CI.
4『 中 俄 美 三 國 博 弈 重 塑 國 際 格 局 』 ， 中 時 電 子 報 ， 2015 年 04 月 14 日 ，
http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20150414001052-260310
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If we look closely at the results published in November, 2014, by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM)5, we will see that the general attitude of Russian people towards China tends to be positive. 49% of the respondents view the PRC as a strategic and economic partner, 36% - as a friend and ally, and only 1% - as a threat.
Speaking about future, 43% of people see China as Russia’s friend in the 21st century and 36% as a close partner. 60% of the respondents state that cooperation between the RF and the PRC is mutually beneficial for both of them6 (VCIOM, 2014). As we can see, the major part of the respondents has favorable perception towards China and Sino-Russian relation in general. Thus, it might be assumed that they welcome the initiatives that the PRC is offering all over the world, like the Confucius Institute, for example.
2. Attitude towards Chinese Language
Although it might feel natural that people who study or teach Chinese language like it, it does not necessary have to be this way. They might do it out of need or other purposes. Thus, if they like Chinese language, they are likely to feel positive about the well-known institution which provides Chinese courses. However, if they do not like Chinese, it will not necessarily mean that they also have a negative attitude towards the CI.
This dependent variable is an outcome of the first independent variable which the author of this study is going to describe in the next paragraph.
1.3.2 Independent Variables
1. Incentive and Interest
When people start learning any foreign language, there is always a reason that stands behind their decision. Sometimes they can be very simple: e.g. when child in a non-English speaking country starts to go to school, it is likely that English will be already included into the compulsory curriculum, thus leaving the kid with no other choice than to start learning it. However, in the modern world people decide to learn this or that language or parents want their children to know this or that language due to several reasons. Among the most common reasons are the following: business, education, family, friends, and common interest towards any language. If we take learning any
5 It is the oldest and the leading marketing and opinion research company in the post-Soviet space.
6 Россия-Китай: от вражды и конкуренции – к дружбе и сотрудничеству [Электронный ресурс]. – Режим доступа: http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=115042. – ВЦИОМ.
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foreign language in Russia as an example, we will see that among the most popular reasons for doing it are the following: communication with foreigners, work, going abroad, broaden the background knowledge7. Thus, all these factors are the driving motive for people to begin learning any foreign language.
As it has been mentioned before, attitude towards any language is formed by people’s interest in this or that language. If someone is interested in learning Chinese for this or that reason, his/her attitude towards it would be positive. If someone is not interested, it is very likely that he/she just would not continue or even start learning it.
2. The Degree of Development of Soft Power in Russia
If people know what soft power is and see their own country’s performance in that sphere it might be assumed that they would be more friendly towards other countries’ soft power initiatives.
Unfortunately, not many people in Russia are aware of what soft power is.
Moscow is a relatively new player in this field. Besides Russian rich cultural heritage, the country does not have something special to offer to the world. On the other hand, even when there is something important and meaningful that Russia wants to share with the others, they are not ready to accept it due to the circumstances. The bright example which could be used here are the Olympics. In 1980, Moscow held the Summer Olympics.
These Games were the first to be staged in Eastern Europe and promised to be exciting, a bright instrument of Communist regime’s soft power. However, just a year before, in 1979, the USSR deployed its troops in Afghanistan. As a result 65 countries leading by the USA boycotted the Olympics. Pretty much the same happened in 2014. Russia’s southern city Sochi hosted the XXII Olympic Winter Games. Though the Games were successful, and Russia had a chance to show the world its spiritual wealth and mightiness, a lot of controversy surrounded the Games: e.g. corruption, LGBT rights etc. The events that happened in Ukraine in February, which were followed by the Russian annexation of Crimea in March, 2014 added to the ruining of Moscow’s image on the international arena, thus making the Sochi Olympiad less remarkable event.
To sum it up, even though the concept of soft power is not very developed in Russia yet, it does not necessarily mean that Russian people are unaware of it, or even if
7 Uchit inostrannye yazyki: Dlya chego i pochemu (Why to learn foreign languages). (2014, November 13).
Russian Public Opinion Research Center. Retrieved June 26, 2015, from http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=115051
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they are, it does not imply that they will have negative attitude towards other countries’
soft power initiatives. Later in this study we will see how the land lies in reality.
3. Sino-Russian Relations
This independent variable is closely connected with the first dependent variable of this study (Attitude towards China). As it has been already mentioned, the current state of relations between these two countries is more than good, if both countries’ leaders are constantly repeating that their relations now are “the best in history”. Such state of things is likely to influence people’s attitude towards China. As long as China is a friend of Russia, the majority of people might have a positive influence towards it. However, if this changes, people’s attitude is also likely to change. As an example to prove this statement we can use the changes in the Russian-American relations and how these changes influenced the perception of Russians towards the U.S.
In 2014 the relations between Russia and the West have declined due to the Ukrainian crisis. Many countries imposed various sanctions against Moscow, which along with the declining oil prices undermined the country’s economic situation. According to VCIOM (2014), the attitude of Russians towards the U.S. during this time has changed towards the worst. In February, 2013 only 2% of the respondents had very negative attitude towards the U.S., in November, 2014 this number increased up to 27%8. Thus, we can see that the state of relations between countries cannot but influence people’s opinion.
Taking into account all dependent and independent variables described above, the general hypothesis of this study could be formulated. We can see that many Russian people have positive attitude towards China. The bilateral relations between Russia and the PRC are currently at the relatively high level. Thus, it may be assumed that while Sino-Russian relations are good, the general attitude of people towards China and Chinese initiatives, like Confucius Institute, will remain positive.
All dependent and independent variables, as well as the hypothesis stated above could be described using the macro, micro, meso level of analysis and summed up with the following scheme:
8 Rossiya i SSHA: Otnosheniya v tochke zamerzaniya (Russia and the U.S.: Relations at the freezing point).
(2014, December 3). Russian Public Opinion Research Center. Retrieved June 26, 2015, from http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=115075
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Figure 1
Source: author
In this case the smallest unit of analysis - micro level – is responsible for identifying the reasons why people want to study Chinese, while the largest one – macro level – deals with Sino-Russian relations in general and their influence on the Confucius Institute. The intermediate level between the above mentioned two – meso level – serves as a mediator between micro and macro, and deals with Russian national soft power policy and people’s awareness of this concept. The meso level can be regarded as the most important one in this case, as it is closely connected both to the two other levels. In Chapter 2, 4 and 5 we will look closer on three of these levels.