The first paragraph shall give the reader the necessary information about the intention of elaborating this study as well as the used structure. The first subphase of this chapter introduces to the identified problem and is explaining the relevance of this topic. The second subphase is defining the overall target of this work and is presenting the research questions that this work is trying to answer. The last subphase will constitute the structure which will be applied for answering the research questions from paragraph 1.2.
1.1 Relevance and Problem
The world is facing an environmental crisis (Vester, 1990, p. 15) and ongoing urbanization (UN DESA, 2018). According to the UN DESA (2018), more than 75 % of the German population currently lives in cities – and the population density of cities is further increasing. This permanent growth of cities is causing air and water pollution, the extinction of flora and fauna, soil erosion, etc. (Vester, 1990, p. 15). Cities and municipalities already face different challenges as housing shortage and overloaded infrastructure resulting from these problems as well as an ongoing lack of space in urban areas (Siemens AG, 2017). These problems arose not least because of the automobile (Sumantran, Fine, Gonsalvez, 2017, p. X and 49). According to Sumantran et al., cities have been designed for cars, whereby they actually should have been designed for people (2017, p. X). And even though society is aware of cars being one of the main causes of environmental problems, they still possess a high value and status in society due to their high flexibility – especially in Germany (Kirchbeck, 2017).
To maintain and increase the quality of life in cities, the auto industry, governments, cities and municipalities have already started to identify and implement certain strategies (Siemens AG, 2017). City administrations and politicians, in collaboration with the automobile industry, have started to enact certain regulations for “(a) reducing toxic and harmful pollutants by lowering tailpipe emissions; (b) improving fuel efficiency, thereby reducing dependence on fossil fuels and lowering CO2 emissions, and (c) improving the reuse and recycling of materials used in cars […]” (Sumantran et al., 2017, p. 50). Hence, new mobility concepts already were invented – such as car or bike sharing – that are partially electric (Brúch, 2015; Jaekel, 2013, p. 5; Verband der Automobilindustrie e. V., 2018). Due to the situation, holistic solutions that are
able to increase the efficiency of existing infrastructures by using modern technologies need to be further developed and implemented (ADL & eco, 2017, p. 6).
Through the interaction of smartphones or digital infrastructure and mobility, traveling already has become more flexible and individual by providing a multimodal range of different means of transportation. Business models are changing from the focus of producing transportation modes or providing one specific transportation system for interaction between industries, communities and users (Verband der Automobilindustrie e. V., 2018).
1.2 Target and Research Questions
The primary objective of this scientific paper is the elaboration and demonstration of potential future developments in urban mobility. By applying the scenario technique from Gausemeier, Fink and Schlake, three different future scenarios will be created that form the basis of the ensuing recommendations for two parties – on the one hand the car manufacturers, and on the other cities, communes and governments. In the elaboration of this work the focus is on individual movement in large cities in Germany.
According to the Federal Republic of Germany, a large city is a condensed settlement with more than 100,000 inhabitants (Gabler, 2011). Distribution and transportation of goods and other objects than people are not part of this work. In addition to these distinctions, the time horizon of the research has been determined at ten years from 2018.
For conducting this work, the following research questions were formulated as a basis:
• What will mobility in Germany look like in ten years?
• How will people living in large German cities travel in ten years?
• Which technologies will be state of the art in ten years?
• What do cities need to change in order to be prepared for future urban mobility developments?
• What changes do providers of transportation need to undertake?
• Will the traditional automobile still play a central role in urban mobility?
• Which concrete recommendations for cities and manufacturer or traditional cars can be derived from future scenarios?
1.3 Structure
This paper is divided into five chapters. The second chapter provides terminological definitions that need to be clearly defined to meet the actual objective. In this chapter, the knowledge required to set the right frame of understanding will be defined.
After the definition of certain terminologies, the methodology, the structure and concept of this scientific work will be presented. First, the scenario technique in general will be presented and its historical background provided, followed by an explanation of the scenario funnel. In the last part of the third chapter, different approaches of scenario techniques will be shown and their different steps explained in detail. Following the introduction of different scenario techniques, one approach will be chosen. This chapter also argues for certain modifications of the approach of the scenario technique that were done by the author. Amongst other adjustments, this section also explains the procedure of focus group discussions that were conducted as one part of the scenario creation.
The fourth chapter deals with the actual performance of the scenario technique, resulting in different recommendations basing on the identified scenarios. This section executes each single step that was predefined. An additional part of this phrase is the identification of key factors that influence mobility the most, as well as presenting of their current situation. The current situation sets the starting point for the research thereafter. Afterwards, each key factors’ future development along specific characteristics will be elaborated upon. These elaborations form the basis of each scenario.
In the fifth and last chapter, this work will be reflected upon and a conclusion resulting from the elaborated recommendations formulated. Finally, the author will draw up a potential outlook on urban mobility.