Scenario Field Analysis

As described earlier in this study, megatrends will be used as key factors. The reason is that megatrends are more or less influencing the world, behavior and thinking – they influence people, societies, politics, economies and cultures (Gatter, Schuldt, Varga,

2014, p. 6). But megatrends are, on the other hand, influenced and created by people, societies, politics, economies and cultures. Megatrends don’t need to be predicted because they are already there. They mark the change, that has been, is and will happen.

Megatrends embrace several decades and influence people and the society. (Müller, 2017) Müller (2017) further stated that megatrends are not dependent on technologies or tech trends. According to Horx (2007, p. 1), megatrends are the ambassadors of change. Horx (2007, p. 1) defined four general conditions of megatrends:

• Impact: A megatrend should last at least for 30 years

• Ubiquity: A megatrend creates signals in all areas of life, is omnipresent, and develops factors in the economy, living environment, consumption, etc.

• Universality: A megatrend has an underlying global character, even when its outcome is different in different cultures and religions

• Robustness: A megatrend tolerates backlashes, without losing its dynamic

As the Zukunftsinstitut GmbH (2016a) stated, megatrends change the world, they influence people and embrace all areas of the society. For that reason, certain megatrends are chosen as key factors. There are many different compilations of megatrends. Each institute for futurology naming and defining megatrends is naming and focusing on different megatrends. Most of these outcomes are similar but differ in their definition or the number of megatrends listed. In this work, single megatrends were chosen from Z_punkt GmbH and Zukunftsinstitut GmbH. Out of the bunch of megatrends, digital transformation, urbanization, individualization and anthropogenic impact on environment were chosen as key factors, that have the biggest and direct influence on mobility. Z_punkt GmbH actually defines the last megatrend differently – the right designation would be “anthropogenic damage of environment”.

Nevertheless, since this already has a negative implication it was changed to

“anthropogenic impact on environment” by the author. Though this change, this megatrend can be observed more objectively. These megatrends also influence each other in a certain way – but this is not the focus of this work. Megatrends that were not taken into account were, for example, globalization, healthcare, or mobility. In the eyes of the author, mobility is not a megatrend but includes different megatrends that influence and shape it. For example, there are different sources that state, that mobility is influenced by megatrends, such as urbanization or digital transformation (Z_punkt

GmbH, 2018; Jung, Kraft, 2017, p. 227; Reinz-Zettler, Kirchbeck, 2017). In the following, the attributes of the development potentialities of the four chosen megatrends will be explained in detail and their current situation presented.

Digital Transformation (Z_punkt GmbH, 2018)

What is digital transformation? It is digital connectivity, big data, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, robotic, etc. (Z_punkt GmbH, 2018). It is not possible to pinpoint one all-embracing definition of digital transformation. It is more that each stakeholder has its own definition of it. But generally, it can be said that digital transformation is the implementation of digital technology into peoples’ lives, businesses, societies, etc. (The Enterprisers Project, 2018).

But what kind of impact does digital transformation have on mobility and automotives?

“The digital transformation of the automotive industry is, in effect, the innovative reassembly of customer and company resources, and of products and services, in order to grow value, revenue and efficiency via digital technologies” (World Economic Forum 2016, p. 7). Commuters increasingly tend to use smartphone apps to buy their bus ticket or check the weather before leaving the house or check the traffic of their daily route to work. This somehow seamless mobility where the user can spontaneously decide which vehicle to take or how to connect different types of transportation with each other is becoming of increasing importance (VCD Verkehrsclub Deutschland e.V., 2018). Currently, thanks to digital connectivity, it is possible to use a more flexible and cheaper version of taxis in big cities all over the world – for instance, Uber or a similar provider. Via smartphone app, people can call an Uber driver, track their current position, get a price for their ride and pay the trip.

(Uber Technologies Inc., 2018) Besides this way of traveling, the number of alternatives to taxi driving is increasing in the past few months and years; without the digital transformation this would not have been possible. A similar example of the use of digital services is carsharing. Carsharing, as people know it, is almost impossible without a digitized world, including smartphones and internet connectivity everywhere and at every time. Available cars from carsharing provider get visible through a specific smartphone app, which each provider furnishes their customers. Similar to Uber, the user can book, pay, open and close the shared car with his smartphone.

(DriveNow Gmbh & Co. KG, 2018) Beside those public examples, also

privately-owned cars are becoming more digitized. The number of cars connected to the Internet for traffic updates and parking lot availability (BMW AG, 2018) or the navigation system and even messaging services as WhatsApp is increasing permanently (Apple Inc., 2018). Additionally, as mentioned earlier, autonomous driving, if in public buses or private cars, is gaining more importance and Germany is strengthen its position in the autonomous driving field (IMO Institut, 2017; Roland Berger GmbH, 2017, p. 7).

Currently, totally autonomous driving is not allowed in Germany; however, German cars already have several semi-autonomous driving assistant features that were not possible without digital transformation (Roland Berger GmbH, 2017, p. 7 & 9). First examples are parking assistances, that autonomously park the car, active lane assists, that allow an autonomous lane change on highways or even a stop & go assist for traffic jams, that autonomously drives up to a certain speed (BMW AG, 2018). All those examples demonstrate, that the digital transformation is boosting but also changing peoples’ every day convenience.

Urbanization (Zukunftsinstitut GmbH, 2016a)

Urbanization is the description of people living in cities instead of rural areas. It is the additional dimensioning and extension of cities, in terms of quantity, population and area size (Bähr, 2011, p. 1). According to Z_punkt (2018), 54 % of the population currently live in cities. In Germany, 76 % of the population in 2016 lived in cities, as it can be seen in figure 8. As Z_punkt (2018) further mentions, the worldwide percentage of people living in cities will rise up to 60 % by 2030. As a consequence of this development, the infrastructure in cities needs to be adapted and further improved.

Figure 8: Degree of Urbanization in Germany from 2006 until 2016 (World Bank, UN DESA, 2018)

This development can be done through more efficiency in the use of resources and space. Cities will need to build resource and space-efficient buildings with a reduced use of scarce materials and the increased use of renewable energies (Riedel, 2016).

This automatically leads, among other things, to the previous aspects of digital transformation and the use of, for instance, electric cars and carsharing instead of privately-owned diesel or gas cars. There is an ever-increasing number of urban dwellers that want to move and live freely – especially when thinking about the third megatrend, individualization, which will be talked about in greater detail in the next paragraph. But how will companies and cities prepare themselves for this constantly increasing number of urbanites?

Urbanization is, in the eyes of the author, one of the main influencing factors on mobility and urban life. For that reason, urbanization was chosen as one out of four key factors for the creation of future scenarios regarding the development of mobility.

It is necessary to prepare cities’ infrastructures for the steadily increasing number of citizens. Cities become more crowded and in addition people want to be more flexible and get from one point to another faster and easier – they strive to increase their individuality (Proff et al., 2012, p. 7, 12).

Individualization (Zukunftsinstitut GmbH, 2016b):

As already mentioned in the previous paragraph, the number of people living in big cities is increasing steadily, and with it the need and the desire for more flexibility and

freedom. Individualization is the opportunity to freely choose where and how to live or which profession to practice. It is the process of an increase of freedom in each individuals’ personal development (Zukunftsinstitut GmbH, 2016b). As the Zukunftsinstitut GmbH (2016b) further states, the value of individuality that each single person gives to it has evolved. People are looking for individuality, they want to wear individual clothes that no one else is wearing, buy products that perfectly fits them (especially since the introduction of mass production) and want to go wherever they want to go anytime they want (Zukunftsinstitut GmbH, 2017, p. 6).

Individualization as well as urbanization are causing some shifts within the behavior of consumers. These two megatrends extend the circle of consumers and the range of goods (Ewinger, Ternès, Koerbel, Towers, 2016, p. 6). Consumers have the desire to create their own product or want to be part in the process of the product designing (Buttkus, 2016, p. 3). Moreover, almost everyone has an individual digital identity these days on social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook or on online shops, where the shop recognizes each persons’ shopping habits and recommends new or other products according to these habits and interests (Müller, 2017).

Mayer (2017) suggests that individualization is one of the main influencing factors of town planning – and with that also of mobility. The formation of public spaces is impacted among others, by individualization (ibid.) – and individualization is, on the other hand, influencing the development of mobility and its demand (Zukunftsinstitut GmbH, 2017, p. 6; Köth, 2014). Nowadays, to be mobile is a prerequisite for social participation, self-fulfillment and individual success as citizens. Mobility determines if people become successful in private and professionally and each individual’s quality of life. The individuality of mobility is that people can freely choose which vehicle to use for which route or part of their route. Users of mobility have the desire to self-decide when, where and how they want to go somewhere (ibid.) Today, the individualization of mobility is already happening. Through digitalization, it becomes possible to plan and create the travel via smartphone. Digital platforms enable the user to connect all different kinds of transportation with each other and choose the most suitable route, the basis of intermodal mobility. (Knie, n.d.) But as in Figure 6 can be seen, nowadays, 25 % of the people use their private car on a daily basis. Intermodal mobility is increasing its importance, but with 25 %, the privately-owned car is still

the main transportation vehicle in Germany (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., n.d.).

Anthropogenic impact on the environment (TRENDONE GmbH, 2018)

The natural environment is suffering subsequently from the actual development of the human way of life (Z_punkt GmbH 2018). Z_punkt GmbH also states that power stations, industrial plants, traffic systems and agriculture are the main reasons for this damage and all are caused by humans. The increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and with it the greenhouse effect are caused in particular by human activity (Sumantran et al., 2017, p. 46). Sumantran et al. explain, that “the accumulation of CO2 acts as a thermal blanket, causing the Earth to retrain more heat from the sun” (2017, p. 46).

This leads to an increase of the average global temperature that “is expected to seriously disrupt agriculture and food supplies and lead to sea level increases that would inundate many coastal cities” (ibid.). According to Tim Schröder from Siemens AG (2009, p. 4), 80 % of the greenhouse gas – of which CO2 accounts for a main part – comes from cities. He further stated that cities consume 75 % of the energy. Due to this situation, cities account for climate change the most (Schröder, 2009, p. 4).

Nevertheless, under the assumption of urbanization, cities will continuously grow in the future, further increasing those numbers – unless some arrangements are made.

Moreover, scarcity of resources caused, for example, by industrial production, growing population, growing of wealth in certain countries and globalization, needs to be observed as well (Bretschger, 2008, p. 1 ff.). Currently, resources are used and consumed faster than they can grow again – the world has a resource deficit (Bartoschek, 2017).

As Figure 9 shows, for 55 % of the participants of this specific survey, the privately-owned vehicle is important. Compared to that, 25 % of the participants said that driving a car is bad for the environment. Figure 9 also shows that about 50 % of the asked persons said that a car stand for independence and freedom. These two are directly connected to the previous paragraph, where the megatrend individualization was introduced. It can be seen that – at least for German people and its culture – cars are still important, despite emissions being a common issue regarding the environment (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit, 2017).

Figure 9: Survey in Germany Regarding Attitude Towards Mobility (Statista, 2018a)

Anthropogenic impact on the environment is one of the main influence factors on mobility, because transportation is one of the premises for economic and social development. Furthermore, the need of mobility will increase, and the importance of cars will remain high for the German population (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit, 2017). However, the available resources are limited, and the damage is high. As Sumantran et al. (2017, p. 49) said, “the current mobility architecture imposes an unacceptably high cost on the environment, health, and the global economy.” In the past, even with some ups and downs, energy was affordable. This affordability was one of the main drivers of growth of the global economy (ibid.). According to Sumantran et al. (2017, p. 49), 40 % of the global energy source is crude oil and, among others, the fuel-powered car as it is common these days depends on crude oil. For that reason, different new technologies and energy sources need to be identified and implemented (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit, 2017). For example, the German city Munich has set a goal to reduce its CO2 emission about 50 % by 2030 compared to 1990, Schröder says (2009, p. 4 f.).