Corruption is a critical attribution for governance failure. When the mass media exposed severe corruption scandals, the democratic process and regime legitimacy would be undermined (Ehrlich and Lui 1999; Park 2003; Seligson 2002). Guatemala is one of the countries that suffer corruption the most in the world. In Guatemala, politicians and public servants used to utilize state institutions to commit corruption and seek impunity. As the international community, civil society, and government agencies increasingly make efforts to fight against corruption, Guatemala also made a significant move to establish anti-corruption agencies to address various issues about corruption. The United Nations and the Guatemala government signed an agreement in 2007 to create the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG). Since 2008, the CICIG had, investigated criminal acts of bribery, money laundry, and illegal electoral finances. In 2015, CICIG’s investigation of corruption scandals contribute to the resignation of former President Pérez Molina.
Despite remarkable performance on identifying, reporting, and prosecution, CICIG only lasted for 11 years (2008-2018). CICIG's presence in Guatemala created a controversial debate toward national sovereignty. As a result, a series of political obstacles became evident for the CICIG (Althoff 2019; Brannum; 2018; Maihold 2016; Luiña, 2011). Surrounded by corruption scandals, president Jimmy Morales decided to terminate the UN's agreement for CICIG in January 2019. Still, the efforts and efficiency of the CICIG have made this agency a role model for anti-corruption agencies in other countries (O’Boyle 2019).
Why do some people perceive more corruption than others? Previous studies have argued that personal traits and political ideologies matter for explaining the perception of corruption.
However, few studies have taken into account the contextual factors that might affect citizens’ perception of corruption. This thesis aims to join the debate about the perception of corruption by highlighting the importance of anti-corruption agency performance. Focusing on the case of Guatemala, I argue that the performance of CICIG is an important contextual factor that influences the perception of corruption. My hypothesis suggests that when CICIG
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a better performance for fighting against corruption might make people more aware of the corruption problems.
Using the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) data for 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018, this thesis examines the impact of CICIG’s performances on the perception of corruption in Guatemala. LAPOP data shows that corruption is one of the main concerns for most Guatemalans. As a result, CICIG performance combined with confidence on the Ministerium Público, facilitate Guatemalans’ understanding of corruption issues in the country.
1.2 Why Study Corruption?
Previous studies have found that corruption has negative impacts for a country’s national development. For instance, a higher level of corruption might be correlated with more military spending (Gupta, de Mello, and Sharan 2000). Moreover, more corruption might reduce public spending on health care and education (Mauro 1998; Gupta, Davoodi, and Terme 1998; Gupta, Davoodi, and Tiongson 2001), and reduce investment in human capital ( Ehrlich and Lui 1999). In a political environment where corruption is prevalent, government agencies are likely to perform as “independent rent-seeking, monopolist providers of complementary goods and services because of corrupt and extortionist tax inspectors”
(Gupta, Davoodi, and Tiongson 2001, 133). Corruption undermines the government’s ability to effectively manage public sources (Bearse, Glomm, and Janeba 2000). For instance, corruption reduces spending on medicine and textbooks (Tanzi and Davoodi 1997).
Why does the perception of corruption matter? First of all, when corruption problems are widely perceived by the citizens, there will be more distrust of institutions, and thus political legitimacy will be eroded (Canache and Allison 2005; Davis, Camp, and Coleman 2004;
Gomez and Vilchis 2012; Sole and Sorribas 2018; Williams 1999). A higher level of corruption perception might lead to less participation in government activities such as tax paying (Birdsall, Kenny, and Diofasi 2018).
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High levels of corruption perception affect political culture. Specifically, when corruption problems are widely perceived, citizens tend to generate strong distrust towards certain political institutions, and interpersonal trust would be undermined (Seligson 2002). Rampant corruption might create a cultural tradition that emphasizes gift giving and ignores accountability, which lead to more corruption (Melgar, Rossi, and Smith 2010). Moreover, the perception of corruption might affect the dynamics of party politics. When people perceive more corruption, new parties with an anti-corruption platform might be more likely to enter the political arena, and existing parties might split because of the scandals (Sole and Sorribas 2018).
Given that studying corruption matters for understanding the political process of a country, it is also essential to study why some citizens perceive more corruption than others in a country.
The perception of corruption indicates the level of citizens’ awareness of this issue. A lower level of corruption perception does not necessarily mean that the government is less corrupt.
In fact, it is possible that citizens might perceive less corruption in a country that is identified with serious corruption by international organizations. When citizens perceive more corruption, it is expected that there will be higher popular pressure for demanding the government to tackle the issues of corruption. In this sense, it is important to examine what determines various levels of corruption perceptions among citizens.
This thesis is organized as follows. In Chapter 2, I will provide an overview of the development of the CICIG. Chapter 3 will discuss important theoretical explanations of corruption perception and present the research design for the empirical analyses. In Chapter 4, I test the hypothesis about the relationship between CICIG’s performance and corruption perception and present the statistical results. Chapter 5 provides qualitative analyses by focusing on important cases of illicit electoral financing and controlling over the magistrate elections. Chapter 6 concludes and provides some policy implications based on the finding of this thesis.