Chapter 4 Empirical Results
4.2 Comparative Simulation Analyses
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preferences. The predicted probabilities suggest that left-leaning has less probability of perceiving corruption (75.29%) compare to those in the right-leaning (77.77%) and center (81.11%).
Finally, the simulation results show that a female respondent has less probability (77.71%) than male respondents (80.64%) to perceive corruption. Simulations using key variables of Model 1 different situations can create a difference in the likelihood that an individual perceives corruption. Overall, Table 3 and Table 4 demonstrate that the presence of the government’s anti-corruption efforts, education attainment, and economic outlook serve as important determinants for explaining the likelihood of corruption perception in Guatemala.
4.2 Comparative Simulation Analyses
Based on the results in Model 1 and Model 2, I created a series of simulations for different scenarios of corruption perception. Figure 1, compares the predicted probabilities of corruption perception for educational attainment and total number of CICIG’s investigations.
Figure 2 compares the predicted probabilities of corruption perception for the number of charged investigations and the number of uncharged investigations. In addition to Figure 1 and Figure 2, I also conducted simulations of the likelihood of corruption perception under different scenarios for political ideology, media exposure, and economic outlook.
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Figure 2 Comparative Simulation Analyses for Total Number of CICIG’s Investigations, Education Attainment, and Corruption Perception in Model 1
Figure 1 shows that both the number of CICIG’s investigations and the educational attainment level have positive effects on increasing the likelihood of perceived corruption.
However, the simulation shows that higher educational attainment has a more substantial effect on increasing the likelihood of corruption perception than the total number of CICIG’s investigation. The calculated arc elasticities shown in Table 5 suggest that a change of 1% in the total number of CICIG’s investigations creates an increase of the perception of corruption ranging from 5.43% to 15.35%. Moreover, a change of 1% in educational attainment creates an increase in the perception of corruption ranging from 6.79% to 19.60%.
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Table 5 Elasticities Intervals for Perception of Corruption
Figure 3 Comparative Simulation Analyses for the Number of Uncharged Investigations, Charged Investigations, and Corruption Perception in Model 2
The simulation results in Figure 2 show that both the number of uncharged investigations and the number of charged investigations increase the likelihood of perceived corruption.
However, the result shows that the number of charged investigations has a more substantial effect on increasing the likelihood of corruption perception than the number of uncharged investigations. The calculated arc elasticities shown in Table 5 suggests that a change of 1%
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corruption ranging from 0.66% to 4.67%. Moreover, a change of 1% in the number of CICIG’s charged investigations creates an increase in the perception of corruption ranging from 4.28% to 9.44%.
Table 6 shows the simulation results for predicted probabilities of perceiving corruption under different scenarios of political ideologies. On average, an individual with left-leaning characteristics has a percentage of perceiving corruption of 75.89% in Model 1 and 76.07%
in Model 2. An individual with right-leaning characteristics has a 78.37% percentage of perceived corruption in Model 1 and 78.47% in Model 2. Overall, the simulation shows that leftist leaning individuals perceive less corruption than rightist leaning individuals.
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Table 6 Predicted Probabilities of Corruption Perception for Individuals with Different Political Ideologies
Variables Model 1 Model 2
Leftist 75.89% 76.07%
Rightist 78.37% 78.47%
Table 7 Predicted Probabilities of Corruption Perception for Individuals with Different Frequency of Watching News
Variables Model 1 Model 2
Day 80.95% 80.96%
Week 81.13% 81.07%
Month 74.02% 74.00%
Rarely 76.28% 76.05%
The predicted possibility of perceiving corruption related to media exposure can be seen in Table 7. The results show that an individual that follows news daily or weekly are more likely to perceive corruption. Finally, simulations on individuals’ sociotropic evaluation confirmed that a negative economic outlook increases the perception of corruption.
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Table 8 Predicted Probabilities of Corruption Perception for Individuals with Different Sociotropic Evaluations
Variables Model 1 Model 2
Worst 80.97% 80.98%
Same 78.21% 78.24%
Better 75.23% 75.26%
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As the section 2.7 state, CICIG implemented modern investigatory instruments and promoted essential reforms to achieve its three main objectives. CICIG, in coordination with the MP, was able to identify more than sixty criminal organizations(CICIG 2019, 11). This section will include a case study of the cases of illicit electoral finance and the control over the magistrates.
These two aspects are the common denominator that facilitated CIACS operations and the co-optation of the state. The subsequent section illustrates the response of the public after CICIG cases revealed.
The CICIG was an anti-corruption agency with reliable investigative faculties and different cooperation agreements. By the time CICIG was established in Guatemala, controversial cases were already ongoing (CICIG 2009). The international commission’s responsibility was to show results, capacity, and adequate use of its hybrid model for institution prosecution(Trejo and Matiz 2019).
Overall, controversial cases related to corruption include; a well-known ex-military official Byron Lima Oliva, associated with money laundry and drug trafficking. Oliva was accused of conducting a series of criminal activities, including purchases of weapons and falsifying documents. Lima controlled a criminal organization from jail and had exclusive benefits like access to the internet. CICIG exposes pictures of Lima with public figures, including Taiwanese ambassador Adolfo Sun when Lima already syndicated of murder(WOLA 2015, 8).
Controversial cases are related to a period before the establishment of CICIG. During 2004-2007, an organization that operated in the Ministry of the Interior and National Civilian Police syndicated to murder prisoners that disobeyed orders, involved Erwin Sperisen, with swiss nationality, Carlos Vielman with Spanish nationality and Javier Figueroa went to Australia, and the others escaped to the European countries. CICIG and Public Prosecutor’s