Further Study

only produces during the day, we may see a massive glut of power during the day, with no generation at night. Taiwan’s extremely limited energy storage facilities ensure that much of this power will be wasted.

Additionally, solar PV will mean that conventional sources to generate at night will become much more expensive as their capacity factors are reduced. Currently, Taiwan’s thermal plants are comparatively cheap to operate because they have such high capacity factors. If they go unused, however, their price per kwh could rise substantially as their capital costs become harder to defer through continuous generation.

4.7 Further Study

There are a number of ways this technique could be improved upon. First and foremost, it relies on only a single year of Taiwan's availability data. Though compensating for unusual nuclear dropouts can alleviate some of this disparity, Taipower has data going back many years. Those should be explored to get a more robust analysis.

Additionally, these calculations have relied on simple probability. A more advanced study could rely on frequentist statistics to better describe day-to-day availability and the likelihood of losing capacity. When combined with historical data, this would give a much more holistic projection.

Additional research is also needed to better understand Taiwan’s cogeneration system. Its installed capacity cannot be derived from any conventional source. The MOEA and bureau of energy data conflict, particularly about 2014-2015 years, as do the Taipower reports. It is clear from the capacity factors at least that Cogeneration in NERC regions and cogeneration in Taiwan operate very differently.

‧

Taiwan Power Company Report

The report emphasizes the dangers of reckless reforms, and raises concerns about Taipower’s rights and its ability to provide services to every citizen. The report highlighted that given the extreme levels of uncertainty caused by the current political situation, it is extremely difficult for the company to make long term plans and investments.

The report suggests that the population does not seem to understand the difference between total installed capacity and available capacity. The way that co-gen is being

reported makes it appear as though it is a reliable source of power that can be mustered on demand, rather than the reality of surplus wholesale available at inconsistent times. This is evident by examining the civil society discourse (Fang, Jay, 2016), and that even reputable newspapers are unable to make the distinction suggests that electricity statistics need to be written more clearly. Even this researcher was originally stumped by this conundrum. The only recent official document where this issue has been clarified seems to be in Taipower’s own report (Taiwan Power Company, 2016), and is not addressed in the Bureau of Energy’s Handbook or long term power outlook. Inquisitive citizens do not have an easy means to check this themselves, and combined with current incentives, are not irrational in suspecting Taipower of bad faith. When combined with the lack of credibility that the KMT brings - Taipower’s most vocal political supporter - it sheds further concern.

4.9 Taipower’s Double Edged Sword

Taipower was created in 1946 by the ROC government, and then operated

continuously during the martial law period. Though there have been incremental changes in

‧

the Investor-Owned-Power plant regulations and co-gen availability, Taipower is

fundamentally governed the same way it always has been.

This is one area where Taiwan’s democracy works against it. Taiwan has democratized, and its citizens are eager to find “social enemies” to protest against. The current ruling party - the DPP - was born as a protest party, and won the last election in a landslide. Taipower’s configuration as a state-owned industry under the direct control of the legislature, then makes it extremely politically vulnerable. It does not have the power to set prices in attempts to curb demand generally, nor does it have any means of setting off-peak pricing to level the demand curve encourage shifting of consumption to times when power is cheaper to produce.

What has made Taipower so effective over the years under martial law, or post-democratization with a sympathetic legislature, has now made it intensely vulnerable to the DPP-controlled legislature. Civil society groups who are extremely suspicious of monopolies, and value the noble ideas of conservation, may vote against what is ultimately their own interests, and the DPP will let them. It takes years, even decades to change the composition of a country’s energy and electrical systems. The fourth nuclear power plant was originally proposed in 1978 (Lassen, 2000) Construction did not begin until the late 90’s, and were it not for the mothballed project, only the first reactor would be operational today - 38 years after the initial proposal. These cycles are much longer than the careers of many politicians, let alone an electoral cycle.

DPP politicians will continue to embrace potentially unfeasible renewable energy initiatives at the hands of their constituents because they will be electorally rewarded, and though potential losses will be economically devastating, it is unlikely that today’s politicians will have to pay the political or economic price.

Moreover, the current system for rationing electricity prioritizes both essential public services and residential users. As mentioned in the background section, an overwhelming majority of Taiwan’s electricity usage is industrial, and while this does indeed support much of Taiwan’s economy, it is unlikely that a majority of the voting public would immediately

‧

notice a change. In the event of sudden, large scale cutbacks, factories would close or reduce production - but voters would be unlikely to notice and immediate change in their quality of life. Their air conditioners would still work, electrified public transit such as the Metro (MRT), Taiwan Rail Administration (TRA), and High Speed Rail (HSR)would still function. Smartphones would charge. The consumer side of life in Taiwan would continue unabated, initially. Environmental groups would say “Look at all of this scaremongering! The KMT and the large corporations want to put us under martial law, destroy our beautiful island with belching smokestacks, and harm our health with vile nuclear waste for their own profit!”

This line of reasoning is compelling and well circulated. Populism is brewing all over the world, and Taiwan’s version of it is a strange form of eco-populism tied into to modern Taiwanese identity.

And so even as the Taiwanese electrical crisis worsened, even as its export oriented economy is undermined, the voters would continue to doubt the voices of restraint.

Taipower is constrained by the legislature, the legislature is constrained by voters.

Voters do not have a direct, immediate stake in the system. Taiwan’s democracy, in this case, is working against itself because the institutions governing energy are still configured for a country under martial law. A dictatorship in a developed or semi-developed has an incentive to ensure steady supply of electricity over the long term if it wants to avoid a coup, and by nature cannot be punished electorally. It is therefore free to make long term

investments in infrastructure. This has long been a strategy followed by the Communist Party of China.

To deal with this problem, the United States and other democracies have relied on politically independent energy agencies to manage and recommend policies, along with liberalized electricity markets to provide incentives to guarantee many participants in the electricity sector. The United States does this by having separate regional actors. Different regions have different policies. Some are completely privatized electrical markets, while others are public-private partnerships, and the Tennessee Valley Authority is a Federal monopoly. In the Northwest, a federally-owned power transmission company which owns

‧

some generating capacity is required to provide transmission to anyone who wants it at a reasonable fee, and they then resell it to municipalities or rural electric corporations, who are responsible for distribution. Thus, policy, generation, transmission, and distribution are all managed separately by politically independent actors, some of whom are regulated private companies, or even entirely private. This has the advantage of ensuring that so many actors are more difficult to be targeted for pure political opportunism. Though the American model has many disadvantages, as Banks notes on numerous occasions in his critiques about the dangers of privatization (Banks, 2007), it has the unintended side effect of making the power industry as a whole more politically robust.

However, partial or complete liberalism are not the only solution to this problem. The Tennessee Valley Authority in the US is entirely publicly owned, and most of its generating capacity is also public. While it is publically owned and the subject of periodic political

upheaval, it is shielded from direct operational interference from the political sphere, with the ability to control prices.

Taipower is a serious victim of the horns effect. The Horns Effect, referencing the appearance of a western demon, is a well-documented cognitive bias that causes one’s judgement to seriously impaired by a first impression. All subsequent judgements of a subject, being colored by an initial first impression that creates a snowball effect. Thus, it becomes easier and easier to scapegoat a single subject.

4.10 Resolving political deadlock:

Due to the massive amount of misinformation and misunderstanding surrounding Taiwan’s power system, it is imperative that Taiwan create a credible, politically independent energy body to advise on energy policy and educate the public. Much of the political

deadlock that does exist is there because of lack of information, which is exacerbated by the tense political climate. The KMT’s continued defense of Taipower is harming Taipower’s own interests, as Taipower is being contaminated by the KMT’s perceived political illegitimacy.

There is nothing inherently wrong with a state owned monopoly on power generation,

‧

transmission, and distribution - although liberalization could potentially provide a means of depoliticization, it is not the only means.

For the time being, there is a feedback effect going on in Taiwan’s social institutions.

The energy intensity of the Taiwanese economy means that energy, and electricity in particular, drive Taiwan’s economy as long as it remains dependent on exports. The

economy is part of what drives political action. President Tsai In-wen’s inauguration speech was most about economic issues, and even as she hopes to bolster Taiwan’s economy, her party continues to pursue a potentially unstable destabilizing energy agenda. Because neither the legislature, and more importantly, their constituents, have access to good information about electrical policy from trusted, independent authorities, their meddling makes the problem worse.

When Taipower protests, they are rebuked. (Liu, Lier, 2016) The DPP appointed representative to Japan has claimed that Taipower uses numbers to perpetuate lies at public expense, and this sentiment is echoed in Taiwan’s civil society. Yet this thesis’s analysis clearly shows that Taipower’s and the MOEA long term projections may actually be too optimistic.

To resolve this feedback loop, Taiwan must improve the quality of information, and that requires a degree of political autonomy that is not currently possible. Liberalizing and privatizing Taipower will not solve this underlying problem, and this is the only way to start to solve the problems.

Taipower, and its defenders the KMT, have repeatedly failed to educate the public on their policies or on power system management. This author’s own experience with

Taipower’s nuclear facilities showed a staff that was so desperate to cover its political futures that it failed to provide useful information. In most American children’s textbooks, nuclear reactors are diagrammed beginning in the third grade, when children are eight years old. Activists informally interviewed in Taiwan’s anti-nuclear movement don’t even

understand the difference between LNG and Coal plants, believing that thermal power plants (火力 in Chinese) are powered by some form of fire that is not tied to fossil fuels, let alone

‧ 國

立 政 治 大 學

‧

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

58 high carbon sources. Given this level of ignorance, it is no surprise the population is so vehemently opposed to nuclear power.

The World Nuclear Association provides overwhelming evidence that nuclear power is the safest source of power per kwh among all conventional sources, and that the primary dangers lie not in the technology, but in the institutions and practices that manage it. (“Safety of Nuclear Reactors - World Nuclear Association,” May 2016). And yet even though a gas explosion killed dozens and injured hundreds, Taiwan continues to pin its energy future on a fossil fuel based power source. This problem is fundamentally a political one, which would be solved by effective and trustworthy information, which neither Taipower nor the KMT have been willing or able to provide. Until an autonomous energy agency is formed, the excessive politicization of energy will continue to stunt development of an effective electricity policy in Taiwan.

‧

Given available historical data on Taiwan’s generating reliability, what

operating reserve would be required to maintain reliability for a feasible, worst-case scenario?

We have established that, during 2015, the less than 12% reserve ratio was barely enough. During July, the loss of a single plant or two large generators would have caused power rationing. This must be treated with several caveats.

The first caveat is the nuclear issue. With some of Taiwan’s nuclear fleet out of commission during that year, largely due to political issues, the reserve ratio could be considered artificially inflated. These offline facilities still contribute to Taiwan’s “Installed Generating Capacity” figures, but since they don’t generate, they are essentially dead weight.

Even so, Nuclear Power Plant 1 Unit 1, with a capacity of 636 MW, was the only facility out all year, with the second reactor going down during December only. Those two facilities combined contribute less than 2% to the operating reserve.

The second caveat is that the concept of operating reserve is tied to only two

variables - peak demand and installed capacity. That means that low capacity factor sources like solar and wind could dramatically skew the operating reserve calculation as a measure of reliability. The current legal mandate of 15% operating reserve is only useful in so far as the energy mix is mostly high capacity factor sources.

The third is that, even with high capacity factor sources, this may not adequately account for economic growth. We have established that Taiwan’s GDP growth and growth in electricity consumption are linked, and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. With 12% operating reserve, or effectively 11% due to political constraints on the first nuclear

‧

power plant, Taiwan was on the edge of an electrical shortage in July. The legal limit of 15%

would probably be sufficient for the time being if the energy mix were mainly high capacity sources, but it leaves neither room for growth nor room for investment in lower capacity sources.

In summary, operating reserve is essentially a “rule of thumb” that will have to be adjusted relative the capacity and availability of different sources in an electricity mix. A fixed number may not be appropriate because operating reserve is based on installed capacity, not on the ability to deliver power. Calculating a specific operating reserve figure to use as a baseline would require foreknowledge of the composition of the energy mix, and the

approximate capacity factors needed. If the government continues to invest in renewables, particular on a large scale, the use of operating reserve as a means of power system

planning must be reevaluated, and a new metric should be used. Though Average Individual Generation and Average Individual availability are good candidates, it is not clear that they are sufficient on their own for long term planning, and more studies should be conducted.

Based on current stakeholders in Taiwan’s electricity policy, what policy changes would be need to be implemented to guarantee supply?

As outlined in the analysis, it is the opinion of this author that the single most important change is institutional. Taiwan currently lacks a politically autonomous energy authority, and given the direct control of the legislature over Taipower coupled with the relatively short tenure of elected officials, there is nothing to stop the electrical system from being used as a political football. This setup is not conducive to long term planning and investment. Full scale liberalization will not solve this problem entirely, as market economics do not apply in the traditional sense to power infrastructure. While some liberalization may correct some of the incentive problems, the lack of a coordinated government body for energy policy is a critical flaw in a system that is otherwise so centralized.

From the analysis, Taipower generally outperforms US and Canadian power

companies in all areas except nuclear - where they faced unusual political constraints in the

‧

year analyzed. Privatizing or dismantling Taipower seems unlikely to increase reliability or reduce costs in terms of generation, as much of the NERC data comes from semi-private generators. However, this study did not evaluate transmission or distribution, which would need to be evaluated in any serious discussion of liberalization of the Taiwanese electrical market.

Final Remarks

This thesis has demonstrated Taiwan does indeed have an electricity shortage, though it is not immediately catastrophic. Taiwan’s electricity generation reliability compares favorably with North American sources. This thesis has established that the existing models for projecting generation availability and up-time are too optimistic, and has highlighted the dangers that unrealistic projections may have on long term planning. Most importantly, it highlights the consequences of overly politicized decision making in the context of an electrical system. It is indeed possible to have a stable electrical grid while also reducing carbon footprint of electricity generation, but it will require either heavy investment in nuclear power (which is politically unfeasible) or a substantial overhaul of Taiwan’s electricity

industry and power system. Currently, Taipower is a helpless member part of a feedback loop that may lead to poor decision making due to a lack of independent analysis of available generation. The current energy institutions in Taiwan were designed to function under martial law or with a friendly government. Without independent policy advising and studies, Taiwan’s electricity system becomes a pawn of politics, which prevents investment in long term solutions. While liberalization and marketization may solve some of these problems, it will ultimately require an energy agency with higher degree of political independence and legitimacy.

‧

1% GDP growth in Taiwan “unlikely.” (n.d.). Retrieved July 4, 2016, from

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2016/05/02/464933/1-GDP.htm

2.16.886.101.20003. (2015, January 23). New electricity pricing formula to promote industry’s sustainable growth [text/html]. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://www.ey.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=1C6028CA080A27B3&s=A76600DB893A D52E

Allcott, H., Collard-Wexler, A., & O’Connell, S. D. (2014). How Do Electricity Shortages Affect

Industry? Evidence from India (Working Paper No. 19977). National Bureau of Economic

Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w19977

Banks, F. E. (2007). The political economy of world energy : an introductory textbook. Singapore;

Hackensack, N.J.: World Scientific.

Cai, Minchun. (2016, June 22). 台政府公布再生能源目標，太陽能定調 20GW_集邦光伏網.

Retrieved June 28, 2016, from http://pv.energytrend.com.tw/news/20160622-14063.html Chen, Wei-han. (2016, June 14). Reactor restart chance “virtually zero” - Taipei Times. Taipei

Times. Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/06/14/2003648582

Ela, E., Milligan, M. R., & Kirby, B. (2011). Operating Reserves and Variable Generation: A

comprehensive review of current strategies, studies, and fundamental research on the impact that increased penetration of variable renewable generation has on power system operating reserves. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Electricity consumption per capita - Country Comparison - TOP 100. (n.d.). Retrieved July 25, 2016, from http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=100&v=81000&l=en

Electricity rates cut by 9.56% from April 1: MOEA. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2016/03/16/460907/Electricity-rates.htm

‧

Energy Statistics Handbook 2015. (n.d.). Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs.

Europe’s dirty secret the unwelcome renaissance. (2013). Economist Economist (United Kingdom),

406(8817). Retrieved from

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21569039-europes-energy-policy-delivers-worst-all-possible-worlds-unwelcome-renaissance

Fang, Jay. (2016, June 10). Taipower’s “power shortage” myth - Taipei Times. Taipei Times.

Taipei. Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2016/06/10/2003648267 Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Germany. (2014, June 27). Infografik:

Aufwind für Strom aus Erneuerbaren. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.bmwi- energiewende.de/EWD/Redaktion/Newsletter/2014/20/Meldung/infografik-aufwind-fuer-strom-aus-erneuerbaren.html

Ferry, T. (2015, September 15). Taiwan’s Energy Dilemma: Emission Reductions vs. Dwindling Supply. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from

http://topics.amcham.com.tw/2015/09/carbon-abatement-and-energy-supply/

Ferry, T. (n.d.). Is Renewable Energy the Way Forward for Taiwan? - Taiwan Business TOPICS.

Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://topics.amcham.com.tw/2015/09/is-renewable-energy-the-way-forward-for-taiwan/

Fisher-Vanden, K., Mansur, E. T., & Wang, Q. (Juliana). (2015). Electricity shortages and firm productivity: Evidence from China’s industrial firms. Journal of Development Economics,

114, 172–188. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.01.002

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. (n.d.). Electricity production in Germany | Energy Charts. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm

GADS Data Reporting Instructions – January 2015. (2015).

Generating Availability Data System (GADS). (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2016, from

http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/gads/Pages/default.aspx

‧ Hsu, E. (2014, December 29). FEATURE: Taiwan regressing in biofuel, waste oil policy - Taipei

Times. Taipei Times. Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/12/29/2003607855/2

Hsu, Y.-Y., Lee, Y.-S., Jien, J.-D., Liang, C. C., Chen, K.-K., Lai, T.-S., & Lee, T.-E. (1990).

Operating reserve and reliability analysis of the Taiwan power system. IEE Proceedings C

Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 137(5), 349.

http://doi.org/10.1049/ip-c.1990.0048

Huang, Y., Bor, Y. J., & Peng, C.-Y. (2011). The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6790–6803.

http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.023

Impacts of Solar Power on Operating Reserve Requirements (Fact Sheet). (2012). Washington,

D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ; Installed power in Germany | Energy Charts. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm

Institute for 21st Century Energy. (2012). International index of energy security risk : assessing risk in a global energy market. International Index of Energy Security Risk : Assessing Risk in

a Global Energy Market.

Kuomintang News Network. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://www1.kmt.org.tw/english/page.aspx?type=article&mnum=112&anum=17837&kw=ele ctricity

Lassen, J. (2000, September 10). Power play - Taipei Times. Retrieved July 17, 2016, from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2000/09/10/0000052791/1

Laws & Regulations Database and The Republic of China. (n.d.). Retrieved June 15, 2016, from

http://law.moj.gov.tw/Eng/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=J0130002

‧ Li, L. (n.d.). Taipower to cut electricity price 7.34% on average - Taipei Times. Retrieved June 16,

2016, from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2015/03/21/2003614014

Liao, H.-C., & Jhou, S. T. (n.d.). Taiwan’s Severe Energy Security Challenges. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/09/12-taiwan-energy-security-liao

Liu, Lier. (2016, June 22). 【民報劉黎兒專欄】全民一起踢爆台灣最大的黑箱─電力黑箱 | 即 時新聞 | 20160622. Retrieved July 28, 2016, from

http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20160622/892006/

Maintaining natural-gas fired baseload plants. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-117/issue-10/departments1/gas-generation/maintaining-natural-gas-fired-baseload-plants.html

Matthews, J. A. (n.d.). Concentrating Solar Power – China’s New Solar Frontier —(CSP) | The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. Retrieved July 5, 2016, from http://apjjf.org/-John_A_-Mathews/3946

Mei-Chih Hu. (n.d.). Renewable Energy vs. Nuclear Power: Taiwan’s energy future in light of Chinese, German and Japanese experience since 3.11 —3.11 | The Asia-Pacific Journal:

Japan Focus. Retrieved July 5, 2016, from http://apjjf.org/-John_A_-Mathews/3954

Ministry of Economic Affairs 經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy. (2012, March 22). 2. 台電電廠 現況 [文字]. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from

http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ecw/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=997 NERC Short-Term Special Assessment Gas Electric_Final.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from

http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC%20Short-Term%20Special%20Assessment%20Gas%20Electric_Final.pdf

North American Electric Reliability Corporation. (n.d.). Generating Unit Statistical Brochure 1.

‧ Nunez, C. (2014, September 25). Switch to Natural Gas Won’t Reduce Carbon Emissions Much,

Study Finds. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/09/140924-natural-gas-impact-on-emissions/

Oil expected from Chad as Taiwan strives for energy self-sufficiency | Economics | FOCUS TAIWAN - CNA ENGLISH NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201510250017.aspx

operating reserve management guideline - 20130718.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from

http://www.nerc.com/comm/oc/reliability%20guideline%20dl/operating%20reserve%20mana gement%20guideline%20-%2020130718.pdf

Operating_Reserve_Management_Guideline_20131018_Final.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from

http://www.nerc.com/comm/OC/Reliability%20Guideline%20DL/Operating_Reserve_Mana gement_Guideline_20131018_Final.pdf

Pao, H., & Lee, T. (2004). Forecasting the Consumption for Electricity in Taiwan. In ICEB (pp.

1143–1146). Retrieved from http://iceb.nccu.edu.tw/proceedings/2004/Paper/EN139-paper.pdf

PJM - Monthly Equivalent Forced Outage Rates. (n.d.). Retrieved July 5, 2016, from

http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/energy/real-time/historical-bid-data/eford.aspx Planning Reserve Margin. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2016, from

http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/PlanningReserveMargin.aspx Snapshot. (n.d.-a). Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/12/29/2003607855/2 Snapshot. (n.d.-b). Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2000/09/10/0000052791/1

‧ Snapshot. (n.d.-c). Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/06/14/2003648582 Snapshot. (n.d.-d). Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2016/06/10/2003648267/1 Snapshot. (n.d.-e). Retrieved from

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2015/03/21/2003614014

Taipower cautions that electricity supplies low due to recent heat wave. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2016, from

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2016/06/02/468058/Taipower-cautions.htm

Taiwan cancels biogas-from-food waste project due to lack of technology : Biofuels Digest. (n.d.).

Retrieved from http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2014/09/22/taiwan-cancels-biogas-from-food-waste-project-due-to-lack-of-technology/

Taiwan electricity rates to fall almost 10% this year | Economics | FOCUS TAIWAN - CNA ENGLISH NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201509090011.aspx

Taiwan Power Company. (2016). 105 年長期電源開發方案 . Retrieved from

http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/images/105%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B9%E6

%A1%88%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A.pdf

Taiwan wastes electricity because it is cheap: minister. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2013/08/31/387796/Taiwan-wastes.htm Turton, M. (2013, September 2). The View from Taiwan: Electricity price woes continue.

Retrieved from http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2013/09/electricity-price-woes-continue.html

Turton, M. (n.d.). U.S. Exports to Taiwan of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels). Retrieved June 21,

2016, from

‧

US Energy Information Administration. (n.d.). Taiwan Exports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by Destination. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_dc_NUS-NTW_mbbl_a.htm

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-a). Reserve electric generating capacity helps keep the lights on - Today in Energy -. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6510

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-b). South China Sea - International - Analysis -. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=SCS

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-c). World Oil Transit Chokepoints -

International - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=WOTC

World Nuclear Association. (2016, May). Safety of Nuclear Reactors. Retrieved July 17, 2016, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/safety-of-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx

World Nuclear Association. (n.d.). Nuclear Power in Germany. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from

http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx

Yao, J.-H. (2001). 2-5_YaoJuiHsiang.pdf. Bangkok. Retrieved from

http://www.egcfe.ewg.apec.org/publications/proceedings/ESI/ESI_Bangkok_2001/2-5_YaoJuiHsiang.pdf

‧ 可靠度指標資訊系統. (n.d.). Retrieved June 18, 2016, from

https://fmaw.itri.org.tw/PGSRAIS/4-3-1.html

台灣能源: 免費核能電子書及洪秀柱謝函. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2015/07/blog-post.html

台灣電力公司_太陽光電購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32986

台灣電力公司_汽電共生購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32985

台灣電力公司_風力購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32987

台灣電力股份有限公司. (2012a, October 25). 台灣電力股份有限公司 [網頁]. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info_in.aspx?LinkID=27 台灣電力股份有限公司. (2012b, October 25). 各種發電方式之發電成本 [網頁]. Retrieved July

28, 2016, from 台灣電力股份有限公司. (n.d.-b). 台灣電力股份有限公司 Historical Operating Reserve.

Retrieved June 21, 2016, from

http://data.taipower.com.tw/opendata/apply/file/d003002/001.txt

‧ 國

立 政 治 大 學

‧

N a tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

70

台灣電力股份有限公司(first). (2012c, October 25). 台灣電力股份有限公司 [網頁]. Retrieved

June 16, 2016, from

http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info_in.aspx?LinkID=27

吳象元. (n.d.). 和平電廠跳機 台電表示進入「限電警戒」 - The News Lens 關鍵評論網.

Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.thenewslens.com/article/19616

政策綱領 - 中國國民黨全球資訊網 KMT Official Webstie. (n.d.). Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.kmt.org.tw/p/blog-page_3.html

經濟部工業局. (2008, May 19). 電動機車產業網--車輛維修資訊. Retrieved June 20, 2016, from http://www.lev.org.tw/subsidy/default.aspx

經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy, M. of E. A. (2012a, January 18). 全國長期負載預測與電源開 發規劃摘要報告 [文字]. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from

http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ECW/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=65

經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy, M. of E. A. (2012b, March 22). 2. 台電電廠現況 [文字].

Retrieved June 16, 2016, from

http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ecw/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=997 財團法人新境界文教基金會. (2014). 民進黨的新能源政策. Retrieved from

http://dppnff.tw/uploads/20140306011032_4976.pdf

資料資源 | 政府資料開放平臺. (n.d.). Retrieved June 21, 2016, from

http://data.gov.tw/node/gov/resource/2522

AVG Inv Avl IPP/Cogen 7,952,424.90 8,329,200 Thermal 20,545,807.51 21,519,240 Wind 273,802.91 663,900 Solar 729,000 729,000 Nuclear 4,508,000 5,144,000 IPP-Coal 3097100 Hydro 3,951,790.06 4,691,300 IPP LNG 4610000 37,960,825.38 41,076,640 Co-Gen 622100 Peak Load: 8329200 35,560,000 Pumped Storag 2,602,000 Conv hydro 2,089,300 4,691,300 Installed Capacity Yellow = Taipower Realtime data PUrple: Extrapolation from Taipower Figures Red: Unknown, assume 100%

71 Appendices:

Appendix 1 June Preliminary Analysis

‧

國

立 政 治 大

學

‧

N a

tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecYearend averag Hydro (Conventional)1,899,457.00Conv Hydro1,417,511.501,481,771.471,385,203.731,379,021.101,554,310.111,581,973.261,696,761.461,835,968.071,729,757.751,757,995.551,756,364.251,523,076.601,591,642.90 Hydro (Pumped Storage)2,602,000.00Pump Stor2,602,000.002,485,000.602,262,786.202,061,672.102,316,577.002,369,816.802,529,482.802,602,000.002,602,000.001,915,808.501,845,723.501,861,908.802,287,898.03 Nuclear5,144,000.00Nuclear4,508,000.004,508,000.004,264,734.203,422,574.132,264,041.552,264,041.552,264,041.552,223,677.782,223,410.062,223,410.061,881,010.611,218,455.382,772,116.41 OIL Net Availability2,750,000.00Oil-Taipower1,828,462.502,661,850.002,638,587.502,749,800.002,747,200.002,604,300.002,599,350.002,662,400.002,708,250.002,702,900.002,747,600.002,357,787.502,584,040.63 GasNet Avail10,634,950.00LNG-Taipower9,098,374.308,524,730.939,256,247.719,016,496.419,219,014.2810,173,263.3910,525,638.0810,412,819.6810,084,170.869,727,379.349,498,899.269,181,010.729,559,837.08 Coal Net Avail7,600,000.00Coal-Taipower6,691,260.006,493,850.006,634,245.006,870,485.006,300,440.007,251,315.007,344,375.007,412,305.007,072,410.006,223,590.007,027,370.006,968,850.006,857,541.25 DIESEL Avil254,290.00Diesel-Taipower224,805.76240,047.35231,979.61215,959.98221,606.52236,929.12246,428.03248,204.73242,632.16238,842.68233,446.76226,414.36233,941.42 Cogen MOEA8,108,500.00CoGen AIG906,567.20875,529.76992,790.32772,104.17772,064.521,180,812.501,208,342.741,146,610.211,186,636.11952,383.06979,722.221,015,014.79999,048.13 Coal-IPP3,097,100.00Coal-IPP2,757,109.552,629,159.932,689,417.672,825,569.692,548,379.242,962,174.783,003,138.583,038,448.812,883,822.532,528,501.992,862,823.542,836,952.362,797,124.89 LNG-IPP4,610,000.00LNG-IPP3,837,610.323,759,516.874,033,398.613,857,389.213,951,306.644,395,900.724,564,018.164,530,875.984,420,005.274,258,244.464,106,459.893,880,171.924,132,908.17 Wind-Taipower AIG284,560.00Wind-TP AIG142,561.26105,031.3489,889.7981,345.6441,810.2242,359.6761,955.5732,233.6951,502.5589,705.1584,753.54137,875.9480,085.36 Solar-Taipower AIG7,013.94Solar-TP AIG1,058.751,012.95985.181,274.22991.621,376.521,158.23911.381,095.801,061.301,033.53803.001,063.54 Solar-IPP AIG796,000.00Solar-IPP AIG56,728.4963,031.2572,770.1693,091.67107,983.87108,559.72116,630.3898,127.6997,365.2899,649.1991,576.3983,654.5790,764.06 Wind-IPP AIG362,140.00Wind-IPP AIG155,994.6299,892.8690,455.6582,123.6150,768.8261,654.1766,166.6752,512.1064,409.72107,861.5686,175.00152,470.4389,207.10 Total48,150,010.94Total (Wind CF)34,228,044.2833,928,425.3034,643,491.3333,428,906.9132,096,494.3935,234,477.2036,227,487.2436,297,095.1135,367,468.1032,827,332.8433,202,958.4931,444,446.3634,077,218.96

Monthly AIA (KW) - Calculated by Author Installed Capacity (KW)

72 Appendix 2 Combined AIA/AIG Results from all sources

‧

國

立 政 治 大

學

‧

N a

tio na

l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y

JanFebMarAprilMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec 裝置容可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率 (kW)（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%） 協一500,00010050000010050000010050000010050000099.6349815081.3540675082.2241110010050000010050000098.7549375010050000080.73403650 汽協二500,00012.96450082.4541225010050000010050000010050000089.8449000100500000100500000100500000100500000100500000100500000 協三500,00010050000010050000010050000010050000010050000099.8949945088.1944095086.5643280097.5348765010050000099.6349815089.77448850 力協四500,00072.2236110099.9249960077.8638930099.9649980099.9349965099.8249910099.5849790095.9247960094.1247060099.9349965099.8949945099.86499300 協和合計2,000,0070.29140580095.44190880094.27188540099.99199980099.9199800093.11186220092.85185700095.47190940097.84195680099.7199400099.881997600931860000 汽林一000000000000000001000100000 林二000000000000000001000100000 力合計000000000000000001000100000 大潭複一742,70099.63739952.089.13661968.599.42738392.310074270010074270010074270010074270096.45716334.175.15558139.062.16461662.396.73718413.799.8741214.6 複大潭複二742,70072.92541576.80078.39582202.599.75740843.299.77740991.787.06646594.697.79726286.398.54731856.510074270099.77740991.710074270097.58724726.6 循大潭複三724,70099.83723468.089.47648389.039.11283430.13.9328480.7135.81259515.085.2617444.4100724700100724700100724700100724700100724700100724700 環大潭複四724,70083.42604544.789.47648389.098.51713901.998.82716148.598.88716583.310072470010072470010072470096.45698973.161.06442501.875.78549177.6100724700 大潭複五724,70080.35582296.489.47648389.098.37712887.384.96615705.110072470010072470099.74722815.799.84723540.410072470010072470045.83332130.000 大潭複六724,70056.7410904.969.72505260.898.98717308.010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470097.87709263.8100724700 潭複合計4,384,2082.163602058.71.063115412.85.483747614.81.353566546.89.143908075.95.374181211.99.584365786.99.134346057.95.224174635.87.133819953.86.113775234.82.993638447. 通複一258,50092.03237897.598.97255837.499.69257698.694.56244437.699.58257414.398.91255682.399.43257026.598.45254493.296.04248263.496.28248883.899.84258086.497.33251598.0 複通複二258,50084.02217191.710025850099.94258344.991.19235726.196.32248987.297.9253071.598.21253872.894.58244489.395.14245936.999.425694999.77257905.498.76255294.6 通複三246,80081.68201586.210024680010024680010024680098.67243517.597.47240555.998.07242036.797.15239766.291.27225254.310024680089.01219676.696.74238754.3 循通複四386,00092.37356548.295.536863069.626865691.27352302.292.79358169.410038600095.54368784.499.49384031.482.48318372.899.52384147.296.11370984.6100386000 通複五386,00099.36383529.698.73381097.810038600026.54102444.40080.87312158.298.99382101.496.51372528.697.92377971.289.57345740.273.78284790.883.98324162.8 環通複六321,20099.48319529.799.29318919.499.8320557.698.35315900.272.41232580.910032120099.21318662.596.8310921.610032120098.7317024.499.29318919.482.77265857.2 通複合計1,857,0092.421716239.98.531829702.93.6173815280.651497670.72.191340568.95.241768606.98.141822459.97.271806303.93.541737037.96.9179943392.1171029792.711721624. 中一550,00096.7753223599.4454692010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9754983510055000010055000085.03467665100550000100550000 中二550,00010055000095.5352541510055000099.9754983510055000010055000097.9553872510055000010055000010055000020.8511467565.13358215 汽中三550,00010055000040.072203850055.0330266591.4250281099.63547965100550000100550000100550000100550000100550000100550000 中四550,00093.8951639581.6744918510055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9854989082.27452485100550000100550000 中五550,00010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9954994599.9154950510055000010055000050.782792900091.0850094099.85549175 中六550,00010.415725570.8638973010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9549450 中七550,00099.8854934010055000010055000097.953845010055000010055000010055000010055000097.7953784510055000010055000086.01473055 中八550,00010055000010055000099.8154895510055000010055000076.9142300599.1154510598.854340098.8254351010055000098.04539220100550000 力中九550,00096.9853339010055000010055000057.433158650080.0544027593.3251326010055000010055000095.3524150100550000100550000 中十550,00081.4544797510055000010055000099.8454912094.3551892510055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000049.31271205 合計5,500,0087.98483890088.62487410089.79493845090.95500225088.61487355095.67526185099.04544720099.88549340094.76521180086.28474540091.04500720090.074953850 氣渦輪# 1～ #4280,00093.4926177289.6925113296.627048099.2427787297.827384010028000010028000010028000010028000010028000078.3521938093.81262668 興一500,00051.2425620084.1442070084.0742035055.6227810081.8840940084.0442020083.7641880078.5339265084.1442070085.842900085.5342765085.83429150 興二500,00099.9849990010050000010050000099.3849690087.1443570099.149550076.538250088.144050069.53475006.693345010050000098.16490800 興三550,00099.9354961599.9254956099.9554972599.015445556.153382599.154505099.9554972599.5454747098.9554422598.6554257599.0754488599.92549560 興四550,00099.8154895525.8114195539.1321521599.0954499599.9754983596.3352981599.3554642597.8753828599.954945086.2347426510055000099.68548240 合計2,100,0088.33185493076.75161175080.24168504088.8186480068.02142842094.79199059090.37189777091.38191898088.67186207070.47147987096.32202272096.092017890 興複一445,19083.63372312.391.6407794.092.37411222.010044519097.44433793.110044519096.87431255.599.33442207.294.5420704.592.04409752.884.15374627.398.29437577.2 興複二445,19088.26392924.610044519010044519071.46318132.771.99320492.280.61358867.610044519099.95444967.410044519096.99431789.7100445190100445190 興複三445,19095.97427248.898.11436775.998.69439358.099.43442652.494.68421505.897.69434906.199.91444789.310044519099.9444744.810044519083.48371644.671.07316396.5 興複四445,1900029.09129505.740.4179856.788.61394482.899.86444566.799.01440782.610044519099.94444922.896.88431300.093.49416208.196.62430142.5100445190 興複五445,19097.32433258.999.82444388.692.57412112.398.34437799.810044519093.94418211.494.36420081.299.58443320.298.32437710.899.78444210.510044519047.31210619.3 合計2,225,9573.041625833.83.721863565.84.811887828.91.572038302.92.792065459.94.252097957.98.232186550.99.762220607.97.922179650.96.462147151.92.852066794.83.331854884. 南複一288,80010028880099.15286345.290.28260728.699.63287731.499.78288164.610028880098.93285709.875.83218997.079.98230982.210028880096.2527797099.76288106.8 南複二288,80099.68287875.810028880090.73262028.299.53287442.696.527869299.87288424.599.46287240.479.97230953.386.15248801.210028880095.37275428.5100288800 南複三288,80010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880084.14242996.336.63105787.436.63105787.451.05147432.4

JanFebMarAprilMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec 裝置容可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率可用率 (kW)（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%）（%） 協一500,00010050000010050000010050000010050000099.6349815081.3540675082.2241110010050000010050000098.7549375010050000080.73403650 汽協二500,00012.96450082.4541225010050000010050000010050000089.8449000100500000100500000100500000100500000100500000100500000 協三500,00010050000010050000010050000010050000010050000099.8949945088.1944095086.5643280097.5348765010050000099.6349815089.77448850 力協四500,00072.2236110099.9249960077.8638930099.9649980099.9349965099.8249910099.5849790095.9247960094.1247060099.9349965099.8949945099.86499300 協和合計2,000,0070.29140580095.44190880094.27188540099.99199980099.9199800093.11186220092.85185700095.47190940097.84195680099.7199400099.881997600931860000 汽林一000000000000000001000100000 林二000000000000000001000100000 力合計000000000000000001000100000 大潭複一742,70099.63739952.089.13661968.599.42738392.310074270010074270010074270010074270096.45716334.175.15558139.062.16461662.396.73718413.799.8741214.6 複大潭複二742,70072.92541576.80078.39582202.599.75740843.299.77740991.787.06646594.697.79726286.398.54731856.510074270099.77740991.710074270097.58724726.6 循大潭複三724,70099.83723468.089.47648389.039.11283430.13.9328480.7135.81259515.085.2617444.4100724700100724700100724700100724700100724700100724700 環大潭複四724,70083.42604544.789.47648389.098.51713901.998.82716148.598.88716583.310072470010072470010072470096.45698973.161.06442501.875.78549177.6100724700 大潭複五724,70080.35582296.489.47648389.098.37712887.384.96615705.110072470010072470099.74722815.799.84723540.410072470010072470045.83332130.000 大潭複六724,70056.7410904.969.72505260.898.98717308.010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470010072470097.87709263.8100724700 潭複合計4,384,2082.163602058.71.063115412.85.483747614.81.353566546.89.143908075.95.374181211.99.584365786.99.134346057.95.224174635.87.133819953.86.113775234.82.993638447. 通複一258,50092.03237897.598.97255837.499.69257698.694.56244437.699.58257414.398.91255682.399.43257026.598.45254493.296.04248263.496.28248883.899.84258086.497.33251598.0 複通複二258,50084.02217191.710025850099.94258344.991.19235726.196.32248987.297.9253071.598.21253872.894.58244489.395.14245936.999.425694999.77257905.498.76255294.6 通複三246,80081.68201586.210024680010024680010024680098.67243517.597.47240555.998.07242036.797.15239766.291.27225254.310024680089.01219676.696.74238754.3 循通複四386,00092.37356548.295.536863069.626865691.27352302.292.79358169.410038600095.54368784.499.49384031.482.48318372.899.52384147.296.11370984.6100386000 通複五386,00099.36383529.698.73381097.810038600026.54102444.40080.87312158.298.99382101.496.51372528.697.92377971.289.57345740.273.78284790.883.98324162.8 環通複六321,20099.48319529.799.29318919.499.8320557.698.35315900.272.41232580.910032120099.21318662.596.8310921.610032120098.7317024.499.29318919.482.77265857.2 通複合計1,857,0092.421716239.98.531829702.93.6173815280.651497670.72.191340568.95.241768606.98.141822459.97.271806303.93.541737037.96.9179943392.1171029792.711721624. 中一550,00096.7753223599.4454692010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9754983510055000010055000085.03467665100550000100550000 中二550,00010055000095.5352541510055000099.9754983510055000010055000097.9553872510055000010055000010055000020.8511467565.13358215 汽中三550,00010055000040.072203850055.0330266591.4250281099.63547965100550000100550000100550000100550000100550000100550000 中四550,00093.8951639581.6744918510055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9854989082.27452485100550000100550000 中五550,00010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9954994599.9154950510055000010055000050.782792900091.0850094099.85549175 中六550,00010.415725570.8638973010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000099.9549450 中七550,00099.8854934010055000010055000097.953845010055000010055000010055000010055000097.7953784510055000010055000086.01473055 中八550,00010055000010055000099.8154895510055000010055000076.9142300599.1154510598.854340098.8254351010055000098.04539220100550000 力中九550,00096.9853339010055000010055000057.433158650080.0544027593.3251326010055000010055000095.3524150100550000100550000 中十550,00081.4544797510055000010055000099.8454912094.3551892510055000010055000010055000010055000010055000010055000049.31271205 合計5,500,0087.98483890088.62487410089.79493845090.95500225088.61487355095.67526185099.04544720099.88549340094.76521180086.28474540091.04500720090.074953850 氣渦輪# 1～ #4280,00093.4926177289.6925113296.627048099.2427787297.827384010028000010028000010028000010028000010028000078.3521938093.81262668 興一500,00051.2425620084.1442070084.0742035055.6227810081.8840940084.0442020083.7641880078.5339265084.1442070085.842900085.5342765085.83429150 興二500,00099.9849990010050000010050000099.3849690087.1443570099.149550076.538250088.144050069.53475006.693345010050000098.16490800 興三550,00099.9354961599.9254956099.9554972599.015445556.153382599.154505099.9554972599.5454747098.9554422598.6554257599.0754488599.92549560 興四550,00099.8154895525.8114195539.1321521599.0954499599.9754983596.3352981599.3554642597.8753828599.954945086.2347426510055000099.68548240 合計2,100,0088.33185493076.75161175080.24168504088.8186480068.02142842094.79199059090.37189777091.38191898088.67186207070.47147987096.32202272096.092017890 興複一445,19083.63372312.391.6407794.092.37411222.010044519097.44433793.110044519096.87431255.599.33442207.294.5420704.592.04409752.884.15374627.398.29437577.2 興複二445,19088.26392924.610044519010044519071.46318132.771.99320492.280.61358867.610044519099.95444967.410044519096.99431789.7100445190100445190 興複三445,19095.97427248.898.11436775.998.69439358.099.43442652.494.68421505.897.69434906.199.91444789.310044519099.9444744.810044519083.48371644.671.07316396.5 興複四445,1900029.09129505.740.4179856.788.61394482.899.86444566.799.01440782.610044519099.94444922.896.88431300.093.49416208.196.62430142.5100445190 興複五445,19097.32433258.999.82444388.692.57412112.398.34437799.810044519093.94418211.494.36420081.299.58443320.298.32437710.899.78444210.510044519047.31210619.3 合計2,225,9573.041625833.83.721863565.84.811887828.91.572038302.92.792065459.94.252097957.98.232186550.99.762220607.97.922179650.96.462147151.92.852066794.83.331854884. 南複一288,80010028880099.15286345.290.28260728.699.63287731.499.78288164.610028880098.93285709.875.83218997.079.98230982.210028880096.2527797099.76288106.8 南複二288,80099.68287875.810028880090.73262028.299.53287442.696.527869299.87288424.599.46287240.479.97230953.386.15248801.210028880095.37275428.5100288800 南複三288,80010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880010028880084.14242996.336.63105787.436.63105787.451.05147432.4

在文檔中 台灣供電系統可靠度分析： 跨國比較 - 政大學術集成 (頁 59-0)