Appendix 3 Source Raw Data and Individual AIA/AIG Calculations
3.7 IPP Wind
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風站名稱Installed Capacity KW1月2月3月4月5月 容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW) 石門風力396045.471800.61298.4526.31041.4899.630.641213.34497.3521.7859.3298.612.98514.008 林口風力60053.19319.1497.2334.96209.7699.9735.21211.2699.2928.88173.2899.8819.15114.9 蘆竹風力720047.383411.3699.132.32325.699.9434.512484.7299.4225.471833.8499.3915.971149.84 觀園風力3000058.251747597.244.721341698.8642.311269397.8333.821014697.925.397617 大潭風力450052.982384.193.5733.621512.997.335.651604.2599.2128.751293.7599.3727.071218.15 大潭二風力460046.822153.7298.8127.761276.9698.5630.871420.0299.7424.051106.399.6323.941101.24 大潭二之二風力600058.033481.899.438.85233199.1139.9239499.7233.342000.499.9430.871852.2 香山風力1200037.794534.895.8923.6283297.1422.442692.897.8421.792614.896.6616.121934.4 中港風力3600035.4712769.288.7229.1110479.693.9924.998996.495.7519.116879.689.279.933574.8 中火風力600041.362481.698.0129.55177397.1426.311578.698.3722.221333.298.398.83529.8 彰工風力6200053.9633455.290.7439.8224688.488.333.7820943.684.9731.6619629.294.0113.888605.6 王功風力2300056.5513006.599.1841.999657.798.9432.027364.699.6532.267419.899.8512.832950.9 麥寮風力4600046.2212529234.851603194.0723.3910759.482.527.31255896.99.474356.2 四湖風力2800046.0212885.697.6135.029805.696.5529.278195.698.8127.187610.499.4511.33164 恆春風力450058.752643.7599.1638.11714.599.1533.31498.597.9529.131310.8599.3725.941167.3 中屯風力480063.453045.681.7646.992255.5285.2747.592284.3292.5439.131878.2495.9813.12629.76 湖西風力540069.123732.4899.8348.282607.1299.5642.872314.9896.1633.991835.4699.469.98538.92 金門風力400043.221728.899.9526.831073.296.4431.011240.497.3121.58863.299.9919.78791.2 Total284560142561.262105031.3489889.79481345.6441810.218 0.50098841020.36910085750.31589047650.28586463310.1469293576 961024.366 Yearly AIG (KW80085.36383 Yearly AIG Rat0.2814357739
Capacity Factors Installed capacity from taipower realtime datasystem
82 3.8 Taipower Wind
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6月7月8月9月10月11月 可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率容量因數AIG (KW)可用率 82.349.44373.82481.6915.62618.55289.573.03119.98821.800000010.17402.73223.05 98.7219.35116.198.119.76118.5694.9419.02114.1294.1519.74118.4494.0746.49278.9499.5242.82256.9299.84 97.4915.931146.9699.1516.621196.6497.2716.081157.7698.5319.871430.6498.5442.493059.2898.7337.842724.4898.4 96.2226.23786990.3926.39791793.5110.81324350.7323.68710485.4251.21536094.444.811344397.02 97.9834.161537.298.2928.581286.197.922.6101789.0224.471101.1598.5347.6214296.9127.761249.268.98 97.4428.371305.0296.3821.63994.9895.5522.211021.6693.1620.63948.9897.7844.962068.1699.934.751598.599.81 97.5842.85257198.6434.182050.899.830.431825.897.9527.491649.498.5453.873232.296.4342.982578.897.4 87.6825.763091.275.7423.062767.282.9513.281593.660.8613.071568.460.8722.282673.663.6117.782133.678.96 96.49.783520.897.8315.125443.2971.83658.821.731.1541430.699.863549.647.713.6489652.29 97.877.29437.497.791484095.13.58214.847.2113.8583190.8424.021441.296.4822.391343.495.69 96.0412.317632.298.7723.31444697.8812.45771994.5522.0413664.894.6531.5719573.490.1632.9820447.687.86 97.8712.182801.499.2121.985055.499.4314.443321.295.4925.245805.299.1736.138309.999.2734.227870.699.67 96.459.784498.896.9419.538983.896.658.673988.279.8817.1786693.728.4313077.894.0427.41260491.83 97.5411.013082.899.3721.746087.298.3711.7327692.6916.134516.491.6224.336812.492.8424.796941.289.6 96.4115.69706.0596.423.081038.693.1417.62792.987.2121.295495.9938.391727.5589.6527.891255.0575.25 90.068.73419.0495.9622.711090.0891.0611.89570.7254.123.821143.3676.6538.891866.7275.2429.631422.2478.16 97.477.52406.0899.2219.191036.2689.9113.91751.1473.2127.971510.3894.5852280894.7842.132275.0284.81 98.8121.12844.899.7624.63985.299.721.284899.1721.91876.499.9643.111724.498.0932.781311.299.94 42359.67461955.57232233.68851502.5589705.1584753.542 0.14886025440.21772410740.11327554120.18099012510.31524160110.2978406733
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12月 容量因數AIG (KW)可用率 26.261039.89647.11 48.38290.2898.01 55.023961.4499.04 65.541966298.26 38.31723.565.72 50.222310.1299.88 61.723703.299.33 29.493538.876.72 21.847862.451.54 36.572194.292.56 53.4333126.688.26 56.9413096.299.6 49.2222641.296.21 42.1611804.890.07 51.72326.597.42 61.812966.8883.07 70.283795.1297.19 45.821832.899.94 137875.936 0.4845232499
84
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July0.96636510.94521810.96908260.98972140.4401324 年 (民國)Yearlong0.90230800.40354770.91997880.89890750.5389028TOTAL RenewableCoalOilYearlongJuly AIADieselYearlongJuly AIALNGYearlongJuly AIANukesYearlongJuly AIAYearlongJULY AIATaipower Net 104*2Yearly CFJuly CFYearly AIJuly AIG662.51069.7YearlongJuly AIA332.5300.01742321.31640001524.51375.56861473.2236514.4464.14726497.098223,407.723,622.754103.6 1058072.18464477.309210-75-67.67310-72.4773800-76.4-68.93633-73.8302900-64.42479-68.99847 000000000000 000000000000 -64.42479-68.99847 3343.29713553.75024032.2 106Wind0.28143570.21772410.42215360.32658611.58072.18464477.309210-100-90.23080-96.636510089.380.57610986.2964060062.95210267.295689 000000000000 000000000000 62.95210267.295689 3406.24923621.04594103 107Wind0.28143570.21772410.50658430.39190331.8160144.36928154.618420000-50-45.11540-48.31825-63.6-57.38679-61.4608242.37367845.231245 000000000000 42.37367845.231245 3448.62283666.27714151.2 108Solar0.15163200.16513200.27293760.29723771.88072.18464477.309210002.11.89484692.029366700-63.6-57.38679-61.4608216.96563618.174992 Solar0.15163200.16513201.45566761.58526789.600000000001.45566761.5852678 18.42130419.760260 3467.04413686.03744181.1 109Wind0.28143570.21772411.54789671.19748255.50000-14-12.63231-13.52911178.5161.06198172.4961700149.97757160.16454 Geotherma0.50.50.10.10.200000000000.10.1 Conv Hyrd0.83794620.89328760.33517850.35731500.4000000-77.2-69.65818-74.6033800-69.32300-74.24607 Wind0.28143570.21772410.50658430.39190331.800000000000.50658430.3919033 Solar0.15163200.16513201.60729971.750399910.600000000001.60729971.7503999 82.86845288.160776 3549.91263774.19824286.9 110Wind0.28143570.21772411.54789671.19748255.500000000-98.5-88.87734-95.18696-87.32944-93.98948 Conv Hyrd0.83794620.89328760.16758920.17865750.200000000000.16758920.1786575 Wind0.28143570.21772410.64730220.50076542.300000000000.64730220.5007654 -86.51455-93.31005 3463.39803680.88814196.4 111Hydro0.83794620.89328760.58656230.62530130.700000079.271.46279876.5361180072.04936077.161419 Wind0.28143570.21772410.64730220.50076542.300000000000.64730220.5007654 Solar0.15163200.16513200.75816020.8256603500000000000.75816020.8256603 73.45482378.487845 3536.85293759.37604283.6 112Geotherma0.50.50.50.5100000079.271.46279876.536118-98.5-88.87734-95.18696-16.91454-18.15084 Wind0.28143570.21772410.64730220.50076542.300000000000.64730220.5007654 Solar0.15163200.16513201.51632041.65132061000000000001.51632041.6513206 Wind0.28143570.21772415.91015124.57220622100000000005.91015124.5722062 -8.840771-11.42655 3528.01213747.94944298.6 113Wind0.28143570.21772410.56287150.4354482200000079.271.46279876.536118-95.1-85.80949-91.90132-13.78382-14.92975 Geotherma0.50.5112000000140126.32312135.2911100127.32312136.29111 Solar0.15163200.16513200.75816020.82566035000000-222.6-200.8537-215.112800-200.0956-214.2872
85 Appendix 4 Projections
4.1 Taipower Projections
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Wind0.28143570.21772415.91015124.57220622100000000005.91015124.5722062 -80.64616-88.35365 3447.36593659.59584230.1 114Geotherma0.50.50.90.91.86054.13848357.98190700-14-12.63231-13.5291179.271.46279876.536118-95.1-85.80949-91.9013228.05947229.987590 Wind0.28143570.21772410.56287150.43544822000000180162.41545173.9457200162.97832174.38117 Wind0.28143570.21772415.91015124.57220622100000000005.91015124.5722062 0000009081.20772586.9728610081.20772586.972861 0000009081.20772586.9728610081.20772586.972861 000000000000 00-100-90.23080-96.63651000000-90.23080-96.63651 269.13259286.25017 3716.49853945.84594545 115Wind0.28143570.21772410.84430730.65317233-100-90.23080-96.6365100009081.20772586.97286100-8.178773-9.010478 Solar0.15163200.16513200.75816020.8256603500000000000.75816020.8256603 Wind0.28143570.21772413.94010083.0481375146054.13848357.9819070000000058.07858461.030045 Wind0.28143570.21772415.12213103.962578718.2000000180162.41545173.9457200167.53758177.90830 000000180162.41545173.9457200162.41545173.94572 380.61100404.69925 4097.10954350.54524995.2 116Solar0.15163200.16513200.15163200.16513201-110-99.25388-106.300100009081.20772586.97286100-17.89452-19.16217 Solar0.15163200.16513201.51632041.65132061000000000001.51632041.6513206 -16.37820-17.51084 4080.73134333.03434986.2 5012.18521379.757.52722.90
Net Increase (all sources)
86 4.2 Taipower Projections - 100% Nuclear Availability Scenario
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July0.96636513160.94521818180.96908264740.98972144451 年 (民國)Yearlong0.90230805920.40354772730.91997885060.89890757161TOTAL Renewables煤OilYearlong AIAJuly AIADieselYearlong AIAJuly AIA氣Yearlong AIAJuly AIANukesYearlong AIAJuly AIAYearlong AIAJULY AIA 104*2Yearly CFJuly CFYearly AIGJuly AIG662.51069.7Yearlong AIAJuly AIA332.5300.0174297321.3164063001524.51375.5686361473.223643514.4464.1472657497.09822373,910.743,622.754103.6 1058072.1846447477.30921053-75-67.67310444-72.4773848700-76.4-68.93633572-73.8302960500-64.42479543-68.9984704 000000000000 000000000000 -64.42479543-68.9984704 3846.3197743553.7502544032.2 106Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.42215366090.32658616111.58072.1846447477.30921053-100-90.23080592-96.636513160089.380.5761096986.296406250062.9521021667.29568978 000000000000 000000000000 62.9521021667.29568978 3909.2718763621.0459434103 107Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.5065843930.39190339331.8160144.3692895154.61842110000-50-45.11540296-48.31825658-63.6-57.38679257-61.4608223742.3736783445.2312455 000000000000 42.3736783445.2312455 3951.6455543666.2771894151.2 108Solar0.15163204950.16513206610.27293768910.2972377191.88072.1846447477.30921053002.11.8948469242.02936677600-63.6-57.38679257-61.4608223716.9656367818.17499265 Solar0.15163204950.16513206611.4556676751.5852678359.600000000001.4556676751.585267835 18.4213044619.76026049 3970.0668593686.0374494181.1 109Wind0.28143577390.21772410741.5478967561.1974825915.50000-14-12.63231283-13.52911184178.5161.0619886172.49617600149.9775725160.1645467 Geothermal0.50.50.10.10.200000000000.10.1 Conv Hyrdro0.83794626780.89328763960.33517850710.35731505580.4000000-77.2-69.65818217-74.6033881600-69.32300366-74.2460731 Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.5065843930.39190339331.800000000000.5065843930.3919033933 Solar0.15163204950.16513206611.6072997251.75039990110.600000000001.6072997251.750399901 82.8684529588.16077693 4052.9353113774.1982264286.9 110Wind0.28143577390.21772410741.5478967561.1974825915.500000000-98.5-88.87734383-95.18696546-87.32944707-93.98948287 Conv Hyrdro0.83794626780.89328763960.16758925360.17865752790.200000000000.16758925360.1786575279 Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.647302280.5007654472.300000000000.647302280.500765447 -86.51455554-93.3100599 3966.4207563680.8881664196.4 111Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.58656238750.62530134770.700000079.271.4627982976.536118420072.0493606877.16141977 Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.647302280.5007654472.300000000000.647302280.500765447 Solar0.15163204950.16513206610.75816024750.8256603305500000000000.75816024750.8256603305 73.454823278.48784555 4039.8755793759.3760124283.6 112Geothermal0.50.50.50.5100000079.271.4627982976.53611842-98.5-88.87734383-95.18696546-16.91454554-18.15084704 Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.647302280.5007654472.300000000000.647302280.500765447 Solar0.15163204950.16513206611.5163204951.6513206611000000000001.5163204951.651320661 Wind0.28143577390.21772410745.9101512524.5722062552100000000005.9101512524.572206255 -8.840771516-11.42655468 4031.0348083747.9494574298.6 113Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.56287154780.4354482148200000079.271.4627982976.53611842-95.1-85.80949643-91.90132402-13.78382659-14.92975738 Geothermal0.50.5112000000140126.3231283135.291118400127.3231283136.2911184 Solar0.15163204950.16513206610.75816024750.82566033055000000-222.6-200.853774-215.112878300-200.0956137-214.287218 Wind0.28143577390.21772410745.9101512524.5722062552100000000005.9101512524.572206255 -80.64616078-88.35365066 3950.3886473659.5958074230.1 114Geothermal0.50.50.90.91.86054.1384835557.981907900-14-12.63231283-13.5291118479.271.4627982976.53611842-95.1-85.80949643-91.9013240228.0594725829.98759046 Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.56287154780.43544821482000000180162.4154507173.945723700162.9783222174.3811719 Wind0.28143577390.21772410745.9101512524.5722062552100000000005.9101512524.572206255 0000009081.2077253386.972861840081.2077253386.97286184 0000009081.2077253386.972861840081.2077253386.97286184 000000000000 00-100-90.23080592-96.63651316000000-90.23080592-96.63651316
87
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269.1325908286.2501791 4219.5212383945.8459864545 115Wind0.28143577390.21772410740.84430732170.65317232223-100-90.23080592-96.6365131600009081.2077253386.9728618400-8.17877327-9.010478994 Solar0.15163204950.16513206610.75816024750.8256603305500000000000.75816024750.8256603305 Wind0.28143577390.21772410743.9401008353.048137504146054.1384835557.98190790000000058.0785843961.0300454 Wind0.28143577390.21772410745.1221310853.96257875518.2000000180162.4154507173.945723700167.5375817177.9083024 000000180162.4154507173.945723700162.4154507173.9457237 380.6110038404.6992529 4600.1322414350.5452394995.2 116Solar0.15163204950.16513206610.15163204950.16513206611-110-99.25388651-106.300164500009081.2077253386.9728618400-17.89452913-19.16217057 Solar0.15163204950.16513206611.5163204951.6513206611000000000001.5163204951.651320661 -16.37820864-17.5108499 4583.7540334333.0343894986.2 Net Total:5012.18521379.757.52722.90
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單位：萬瓩 年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別Specific SourceYearly AF (CF fJuly AF (CF)裝置容量淨尖峰能力YEARLY AJULY備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計Effect on yeEffect on JulyAIA/AIG calcu 1023,395.704,118.203,990.9017.50% 1033,482.10外購太陽光電(民)1~7Renewable EneSolar IPP0.1140251948Solar IPP8.54,092.201.73,995.1014.70% 台中#3 增加出力1CoalCoal0.90230805920.966365131601.29 苗栗通苑、竹威風力(民)27Renewable EneWind IPP0.2463331851Wind IPP1.840.11 通霄 CCGT#4 增加出力6LNGLNG0.89890757160.98972144452.82.74 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen0-1.32 (林口#1,#2 退休)9CoalCoal0.90230805920.9663651316-60-48.2 太陽光電一期(龍井 I 等)12Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206610.50.1 再生能源規劃增量12Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ener13.11.27 再生能源規劃增量1112Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ener2.71.05 1043,602.60陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,051.400.63,975.003,407.7210.30% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.21772410741.50.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661244.8 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.20.1 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.150.1 核二提升出力 3.6*10MW1NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.440132494503.63,622.75 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen06.816.81 (台東蘭嶼#3~4 退休)10DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.1-0.08-0.10 (通霄 cc#1~#3 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-76.38-74.85-75.59 (東引#4 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.03-0.01-0.03 (南竿#5 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.11-0.06-0.11 -69.023,553.73 1053,732.20陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,122.000.63,982.302.812.186.70% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.165132066124.84.963.764.10 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal0.30.150.150.15 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.20.10.100.10 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 林口新#11CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 青山復建容量調整1Renewable EneHydro (Adjustm0.83794626780.83794626780.836.80.670.67 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen08.618.618.61 (大林#3~4 退休)7OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-75-71.12-30.27-70.89 (大林#5 退休)7LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-50-48.3-44.95-49.49 大林新#17CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 東引#6 新增12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 85.5350.323,493.253,604.05 1063,846.00陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,309.100.64,144.402.812.187.80% 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.10.050.080.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206612553.794.13 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal0.40.20.200.20 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 林口新#21CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 東引#7 新增6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 台東蘭嶼#3~4 更新6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.30.260.280.29 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen05.025.025.02 大林新#27CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 (台東綠島#3~4 退休)10DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.1-0.08-0.09-0.10 通霄新 cc#110LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 (協和#1~2 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-100-97-40.35-94.52 (西莒#5 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.05-0.04-0.05-0.05 南竿珠山#5~6 新增12OilOil0.40354772730.94521818180.770.650.310.73 197.01161.333,690.263,765.38 單位：萬瓩
Original Spreadsheet taken from MOEA National long-term load forecasting and Power Development Plan Summary Report AIA/AIG calculated by author 表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案 AIA/AIG (JULY) (10MW) 11欲達 103 年再生能源目標，則當年度陸域風力需新增 100MW、太陽光電 210MW、地熱能發電 1MW、及生質物發電 1MW，由於台電 10302 無核四案無說明 7 月新增之再生能源規劃種類及容量， 故本研究於僅於表中 103 年 12 月補足剩餘之裝置容量與淨尖峰能力。 表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案（續 1）
89 4.3 MOEA Projections
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年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別能源類別能源類別能源類別裝置容量淨尖峰能力#VALUE!備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計#VALUE! 1073,943.50陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107484,280.700.484,145.702.251.745.10% 慣常水力增量1Renewable Ene0.25470970710.83794626780.25470970710.20.10.170.05 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206612553.794.13 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.50.750.750.75 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ener0.20.130.130.13 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.73.703.70 (核一#1 退休)12NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-63.6-61.89-34.27-27.99 (核一#1 全黑氣渦輪退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.820.000.00 -23.35-17.363,666.913,748.02 1084,017.70陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107474,531.400.424,189.001.971.524.30% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107420.51.235.774.46 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.40.190.340.36 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661265.23.944.29 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.30.650.650.65 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 通霄新 cc#24LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 台東綠島#3~4 更新6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.20.170.180.19 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen04.054.054.05 (核一#2 退休)7NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-63.6-61.99-34.27-27.99 (核一#2 全黑氣渦輪退休)7DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.820.000.00 林口新#37CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 通霄新 cc#310LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 215.54241.793,882.453,989.82 1094,084.80陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.21772410743.64,478.500.224,289.701.010.785.00% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074100.62.812.18 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.40.190.340.36 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661275.44.094.46 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal31.51.501.50 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen04.964.964.96 (尖山#1~3 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.13-2.4-1.26-2.96 (塔山#1~4 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.16-2.48-1.28-2.99 (台中氣渦輪#1,4 退休)11DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-14-13.94-12.88-13.57 (通霄 cc#4~#5 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-77.2-75.65-69.40-76.41 -69.77-81.353,882.453,908.46 1104,148.20離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,968.000.64,738.602.812.1814.20% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206613575.315.78 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.40.70.700.70 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 新複循環機組#1~6(北*5+南*1)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445540529.2485.41534.45 塔山#9 新增4OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 塔山#10 新增7OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.833.833.83 (尖山#4 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-1.04-0.8-0.42-0.98 (核二#1 退休)12NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-98.5-98.84-53.08-43.35 (核二#1 全黑氣渦輪退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.92-3.92-3.92 441.81500.934,324.264,409.39 單位：萬瓩 年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別能源類別能源類別能源類別裝置容量淨尖峰能力#VALUE!備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計#VALUE! 1114,209.10離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074205,202.701.24,826.205.634.3514.70% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661377.45.616.11 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.60.80.800.80 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.40.260.260.26 新複循環機組#7~8(北*1+南*1)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445180176.4161.80178.15
表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案（續 2）
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塔山#11 新增4OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 塔山#12 新增7OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.223.223.22 (尖山#5~10 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-6.6-5.92-2.66-6.24 175.63188.714,499.884,598.10 1124,264.80金門發電機組新增1OilOil0.40354772730.94521818184.95,297.604.174,912.601.984.6315.20% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074301.88.446.53 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.10.050.080.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661397.85.916.44 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.90.950.950.95 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 新複循環機組#9~10(北*2)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445180176.4161.80178.15 (核二#2 退休)3NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-98.5-98.92-53.08-43.35 (核二#2 全黑氣渦輪退休)3DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.920.000.00 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.673.673.67 (尖山#5~10 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-2.2-1.97-0.89-2.08 (塔山#5~8 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.3-2.59-1.33-3.12 (南部 cc#1~2 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-57.76-54.6-51.92-57.17 東引#8 新增12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 76.1295.254,576.004,693.35 資料來源：台電公司電源開發處及本研究整理。
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單位：萬瓩 年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別Specific SourceYearly AF (CF)July AF (CF)裝置容量淨尖峰能力YEARLY AJULY備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計Effect on yeEffect on JulyAIA/AIG calcu 1023,395.704,118.203,990.9017.50% 1033,482.10外購太陽光電(民)1~7Renewable EneSolar IPP0.11402519480.14652057338.54,092.201.73,995.1014.70% 台中#3 增加出力1CoalCoal0.90230805920.966365131601.29 苗栗通苑、竹威風力(民)27Renewable EneWind IPP0.24633318510.18271018571.840.11 通霄 CCGT#4 增加出力6LNGLNG0.89890757160.98972144452.82.74 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen0-1.32 (林口#1,#2 退休)9CoalCoal0.90230805920.9663651316-60-48.2 太陽光電一期(龍井 I 等)12Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206610.50.1 再生能源規劃增量12Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ene13.11.27 再生能源規劃增量1112Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ene2.71.05 1043,602.60陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,051.400.63,975.003,407.7210.30% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.21772410741.50.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661244.8 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.20.1 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.150.1 核二提升出力 3.6*10MW1NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.440132494503.63,622.75 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen06.816.81 (台東蘭嶼#3~4 退休)10DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.1-0.08-0.10 (通霄 cc#1~#3 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-76.38-74.85-75.59 (東引#4 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.03-0.01-0.03 (南竿#5 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.11-0.06-0.11 -69.023,553.73 1053,732.20陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,122.000.63,982.302.812.186.70% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.165132066124.84.963.764.10 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal0.30.150.150.15 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.20.10.100.10 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 林口新#11CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 青山復建容量調整1Renewable EneHydro (Adjustm0.83794626780.83794626780.836.80.670.67 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen08.618.618.61 (大林#3~4 退休)7OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-75-71.12-30.27-70.89 (大林#5 退休)7LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-50-48.3-44.95-49.49 大林新#17CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 東引#6 新增12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 85.5350.323,493.253,604.05 1063,846.00陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,309.100.64,144.402.812.187.80% 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.10.050.080.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206612553.794.13 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal0.40.20.200.20 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 林口新#21CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 東引#7 新增6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 台東蘭嶼#3~4 更新6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.30.260.280.29 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen05.025.025.02 大林新#27CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 (台東綠島#3~4 退休)10DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.1-0.08-0.09-0.10 通霄新 cc#110LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 (協和#1~2 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-100-97-40.35-94.52 (西莒#5 退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-0.05-0.04-0.05-0.05 南竿珠山#5~6 新增12OilOil0.40354772730.94521818180.770.650.310.73 197.01161.333,690.263,765.38 單位：萬瓩 年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別能源類別能源類別能源類別裝置容量淨尖峰能力#VALUE!備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計#VALUE! 1073,943.50陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107484,280.700.484,145.702.251.745.10% 慣常水力增量1Renewable Ene0.25470970710.83794626780.25470970710.20.10.170.05
表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案 AIA/AIG (JULY) (10MW) 11欲達 103 年再生能源目標，則當年度陸域風力需新增 100MW、太陽光電 210MW、地熱能發電 1MW、及生質物發電 1MW，由於台電 10302 無核四案無說明 7 月新增之再生能源規劃種類及容量， 故本研究於僅於表中 103 年 12 月補足剩餘之裝置容量與淨尖峰能力。 表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案（續 1）
92 MOEA Projecitons - 100% Nuclear Availability Scenario
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太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206612553.794.13 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.50.750.750.75 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneRenewable EneRenewable EneRenewable Ene0.20.130.130.13 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.73.703.70 (核一#1 退休)12NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-63.6-61.89-34.27-27.99 (核一#1 全黑氣渦輪退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.820.000.00 -23.35-17.363,666.913,748.02 1084,017.70陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107474,531.400.424,189.001.971.524.30% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.217724107420.51.235.774.46 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.40.190.340.36 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661265.23.944.29 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.30.650.650.65 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.20.130.130.13 通霄新 cc#24LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 台東綠島#3~4 更新6DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.20.170.180.19 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen04.054.054.05 (核一#2 退休)7NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-63.6-61.99-34.27-27.99 (核一#2 全黑氣渦輪退休)7DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.820.000.00 林口新#37CoalCoal0.90230805920.96636513168075.272.1877.31 通霄新 cc#310LNGLNG0.89890757160.989721444589.2687.4780.2488.34 215.54241.793,882.453,989.82 1094,084.80陸域風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.21772410743.64,478.500.224,289.701.010.785.00% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074100.62.812.18 慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.40.190.340.36 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661275.44.094.46 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal31.51.501.50 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.250.130.130.13 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen04.964.964.96 (尖山#1~3 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.13-2.4-1.26-2.96 (塔山#1~4 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.16-2.48-1.28-2.99 (台中氣渦輪#1,4 退休)11DieselDiesel0.91997885060.9690826474-14-13.94-12.88-13.57 (通霄 cc#4~#5 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-77.2-75.65-69.40-76.41 -69.77-81.353,882.453,908.46 1104,148.20離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074104,968.000.64,738.602.812.1814.20% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.16513206613575.315.78 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.40.70.700.70 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 新複循環機組#1~6(北*5+南*1)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445540529.2485.41534.45 塔山#9 新增4OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 塔山#10 新增7OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.833.833.83 (尖山#4 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-1.04-0.8-0.42-0.98 (核二#1 退休)12NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-98.5-98.84-53.08-43.35 (核二#1 全黑氣渦輪退休)12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.92-3.92-3.92 441.81500.934,324.264,409.39 單位：萬瓩 年尖峰負載計畫名稱商轉月 (月初)能源類別能源類別能源類別能源類別裝置容量淨尖峰能力#VALUE!備用容量率 (%) 增減年底合計增減七月初合計#VALUE! 1114,209.10離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074205,202.701.24,826.205.634.3514.70% 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661377.45.616.11 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.60.80.800.80 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.40.260.260.26 新複循環機組#7~8(北*1+南*1)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445180176.4161.80178.15 塔山#11 新增4OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 塔山#12 新增7OilOil0.40354772730.945218181810.850.400.95 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.223.223.22 (尖山#5~10 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-6.6-5.92-2.66-6.24 175.63188.714,499.884,598.10 1124,264.80金門發電機組新增1OilOil0.40354772730.94521818184.95,297.604.174,912.601.984.6315.20% 離岸風力增量1Renewable EneWind0.28143577390.2177241074301.88.446.53
表 3-7 民國 102～112 年情境二長期電源開發方案（續 2）
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慣常水力增量1Renewable EneConv Hydro0.83794626780.89328763960.10.050.080.09 太陽光電增量1Renewable EneSolar0.15163204950.1651320661397.85.916.44 地熱能增量1Renewable EneGeothermalGeothermalGeothermal1.90.950.950.95 生質物發電增量1Renewable EneBiomassBiomassBiomass0.310.160.160.16 廢棄物發電增量1Renewable EneWasteWasteWaste0.30.20.200.20 新複循環機組#9~10(北*2)1LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445180176.4161.80178.15 (核二#2 退休)3NuclearNuclear0.53890287840.4401324945-98.5-98.92-53.08-43.35 (核二#2 全黑氣渦輪退休)3DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740-3.920.000.00 汽電共生尖峰保證容量增量7CoalCogenCogenCogen03.673.673.67 (尖山#5~10 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-2.2-1.97-0.89-2.08 (塔山#5~8 退休)11OilOil0.40354772730.9452181818-3.3-2.59-1.33-3.12 (南部 cc#1~2 退休)11LNGLNG0.89890757160.9897214445-57.76-54.6-51.92-57.17 東引#8 新增12DieselDiesel0.91997885060.96908264740.150.130.140.15 76.1295.254,576.004,693.35 201520162017201820192020202120222023 MOEA Peak De3,602.603,732.203,846.003,943.504,017.704,084.804,148.204,209.104,264.80 MOEA Installed4,051.404,122.004,309.104,280.704,531.404,478.504,968.005,202.705,297.60 AIA Yearly3,407.723,493.253,690.263,666.913,882.453,882.454,324.264,499.884,576.00 AIA July3,553.733,604.053,765.383,748.023,989.823,908.464,409.394,598.104,693.35 MOEA July Pea3,975.003,982.304,144.404,145.704,189.004,289.704,738.604,826.204,912.60
資料來源：台電公司電源開發處及本研究整理。