• 沒有找到結果。

5. A Comparative Analysis

6.2 Predictions

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belief that this scheme would work out smoothly in the long term, mostly on the assumption that the economic instances were isolated from the social context.

Evidence showed that this was not the case, and some corrections to the immigration policy were later introduced towards a more welcoming attitude that in some cases also allowed settlement, family reunion, integration programs, and generally longer stay periods for the immigrant worker. (Nonetheless, the

‘sedentary bias’ still persists in the Taiwanese policy towards immigrant manpower, as evidenced by the main way of settlement used by foreigners, namely, through marriage with Taiwanese nationals.) Whether this perceived shift of policy is due more to humanitarian considerations from the authorities of a still democratic country or rather a practical response to the perpetuation of labour shortage in the domestic manufacturing and care sectors is hard to tell;

however, economic and social factors signal that the need of foreign labour will grow in the future for the island. The only problem for Taiwan will be how to appeal to potential migrants. Low economic growth and lower wages in comparison to other Asian immigrant countries will make Taiwan a less attractive destination for migration flows, with the result that policy-makers will have to explore new avenues to find the necessary labour supply. One of these is to go towards a multicultural society by allowing even low-skilled and semi-skilled foreign workers to settle down in Taiwan and enjoy its high living standards and social benefits. The other is to agree with more formal ties with PRC and make use of its still huge labour surplus by relaxing regulations for the access of Mainlanders to the island. A good guess would be that Taiwan will follow a middle path whose width nobody knows yet, not even its policy-makers.

6.2 Predictions

Schematically we can sum up Italy’s attitude towards immigration policy as follows:

o EU-oriented o Soft-centred

o Bottom-up (illegal practices from the periphery) o Unplanned/Solidarist/Multiculturalis (laissez faire) o Regularisation (as a main way of settlement)

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o Self-oriented o Strong-centred

o Top-down

o Planned/Functionalist/Security-related o Marriage (as a main way of settlement)

Based on the above features elaborated in this study, we can attempt to draw a future scenario for both countries.

Italy’s international labour migration is quickly turning into internal migration, since at present most foreign labour comes from Eastern European countries, which have recently joined EU or are in the process of doing so. The progressive reduction of non-EU labour is consistent with the end of immigrant legislation and regularisation on the domestic front; and with the erection of walls to exclude the access of migrants from Africa and Asia, along the “Fortress Europe” view worked out at political level, on the European front. The southern coasts of Italy now constitute a port of entry (less of a barrier) for the multitude of refugees fleeing from poverty- and war-ridden areas in the Middle East and Africa, whose number is growing due to the instability of the region.

Taiwan’s traditional labour sources from Southeast Asia are drying up due to the combined effects of two events: first, the political decision to progressively limit exportation of labour on the part of sending countries (especially the Philippines and Indonesia) in order to sustain domestic growth; second, the constant erosion of wage differentials between Taiwan and the sending countries, which makes the island less economically attractive in the eyes of potential migrants. Now, solutions are many but uncertain. Taiwan’s authorities could sign up bilateral agreements with culturally more distant countries in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh) or with Burma, to remain in Southeast Asia. Another solution would be to retain its present labour sources by raising minimum wages and improving conditions (such as the lifting of the ‘sedentary bias’). A final, daring option would be the opening of its borders to PRC workers, which probably could only happen in the presence of a massive political change across the Strait, of the same magnitude as the one occurred in Europe in the late 1980s.

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