Impacts in Kenya

The key national disaster risk policies in Kenya are the National Disaster Risk Management Policy, approved in 2018, and is supported by the Kenya Vision 2030 Sector Plan for Drought Risk Management and Ending Drought Emergencies (UNDRR, 2019). These two documents do not specifically address

several ocean risks, including coral bleaching, harmful algal blooms, fisheries and aquaculture or marine-related disease. However, local development plans, particularly at the county level, represent an opportunity for ocean risk management.

Extreme weather events - Kenya

Climate change is a very real threat to Kenya. Mean seasonal temperatures have increased for the past 50 years; while average rainfall has dropped (Field et al., 2012; Funk, 2010). The rising flood and drought risks threaten coastal zones via sea-level rise with Mombasa - the region’s largest seaport - at particular risk. They also increase health costs and place energy, infrastructure, water resources and ecosystem services at risk.⁹

Several notable extreme weather events have affected Kenya in the last 25 years. Severe floods in 1997-98 impacted 1 million people and caused US$ 0.8-1.2 billion worth of damage (Downing et al., 2009). Droughts hit the region in the years that followed (1998-2000), costing US$ 2.8 billion worth of losses in crops and livestock, forest fires, damage to fisheries, reduced hydro-power generation, reduced industrial production as well as reduced water supply (Downing et al., 2009). Droughts also hit the region in 2004-05, 2009 and 2011. Since 2014, an ongoing drought warning has been in place. The annual burden of extreme weather events is thought to be as high as US$ 0.5 billion per year, or 2 % of Kenya’s GDP (Downing et al., 2009).

Tourism is Kenya’s third largest economic sector after tea and coffee exports; generating US$

6.7 billion in 2016, or 14 % of GDP (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2017). Sea-level rise is of threat to low-lying coastal tourist destinations such as Mombasa. The economic cost of sea-level rise is estimated to be US$ 7-58 million per year by 2030; a value that could rise to US$31-313 million per year by 2050 (Downing et al., 2009).

Coral bleaching - Kenya

Kenya’s coastline spans some 650 km and is home to over 3.3 million people (2009); some 15 % of the total population (Payet and Obura, 2004). The majority of the coastline is covered with fringing coral reefs (Obura, 2002), which are among the most valuable in East Africa (Spalding et al., 2017). Estimates suggest coral reefs generate profits for the tourism industry worth US$

356,000 per year, per km² (Spalding et al., 2017). In total, reefs could be worth US$ 2.5 billion per year or 4% of the Kenya GDP (Gudka et al., 2018).

The global mass bleaching events in 1998 and 2016 hit Kenyan reefs hard. 80% of all coral in the region are estimated to have died during the 1998 event (Obura, 2002), costing the diving industry in Mombasa alone an estimated US$ 13-20 million in lost revenue (Westmacot et al., 2000). The bleaching event of 2016 further

decimated reefs, reducing hard coral cover by 20% and increasing fleshy algae coverage by almost 35%. No data are available on the economic costs incurred by the 2016 event in Kenya.

Figure 8. The economic value of coral reefs for tourism. Values range from high in red

(> US$ 356,000 yr^-1 km^-2) to low in dark blue (< US$ 8,000 yr^-1 km^-2). (Spalding et al., 2017).

9 Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction country profile for Kenya https://www.gfdrr.org/en/kenya

Harmful algal blooms - Kenya

On the Kenyan coast, HAB data are limited in relation to location rather than impact (Kiteresi et al., 2013; Munga et al., 1992; Mwaluma et al., 2003; Wawiye et al., 1999)¹⁰. By contrast, fish kills, livestock deaths and massive wildlife deaths (e.g. flamingos) have been documented for HABs in inland lakes (HAEDAT, 2019). Marine HABS from 39 taxa have been identified in coastal waters, with particularly high densities of species associated with costly HABs such as Pseudo-nitzschia sp. (Kiteresi et al., 2013). HAB risks identified include cyanoHABs in salt production ponds (Ogello et al., 2014), toxic HABs where aquaculture has been proposed (Ochieng, 2015), and HAB species where dredging for port development could trigger a toxic bloom or increase the risks of HABs in ship ballast water (Adala, 2007).

In 2001, a bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi caused mass fish mortalities on the Somali and northern Kenyan Coast (Church and Obura, 2006). Hundreds of kilometres of coastline were affected including in Kiunga National Marine Reserve (Church and Obura, 2006; Samoilys and Kanyange, 2008). Concerns about seafood safety disrupted fishing activity and reduced income as officials closed affected fishing grounds and advised the public not to consume locally caught fish. The ban on filter feeding organisms lasted several weeks. The coastal upwelling of waters, low in dissolved oxygen and high in nutrients, enhanced plankton productivity triggering the bloom, which lasted 10 days (Church and Obura, 2006). To date, no economic or other effects of marine HABs in Kenya have been quantified.

Food security via fisheries and aquaculture - Kenya

In 2004, Kenya’s fishery sector was estimated to contribute 5% to the GDP, and employ 40,000 people (Fondo, 2004). By 2008, 80,000 people were directly engaged as fishers and fish farmers while the sector provided livelihoods for about 2.3 million Kenyans involved in fish processing and trade. More recent figures from the FAO highlight the continued growth of the fisheries sector, with production reaching 150,000 tonnes in 2010, and 190,000 tonnes in 2014. The market value of the latter exceeded US$ 250 million (FAO, 2016).

Approximately 80% of the marine catches in Kenya originate from shallow coastal waters and reefs, with only 20% fished offshore. Around 10,000 artisanal fishers work in Kenya (Ochiewo, 2004), using simple fishing vessels and gears such as gillnets, shark nets, beach seines, spear gun and traditional traps (McClanahan and Mangi, 2004). The value of artisanal fishing is not usually reported in official fish landings, but the 7,754 tonnes of reef-associated fin-fish that were recorded in 2006 (captured by 8,682 fishers) are estimated to have a value of US$ 9.69 million per year highlighting the importance of this industry to local economies (Samoilys et al., 2017). The impacts of climate change on Kenya’s fisheries have not yet been fully analysed, but the rising number of fishers entering the fishery each year, combined with the effects of climate change, suggest that the artisanal coral reef fisheries of Kenya may be approaching their tipping point (Samoilys et al., 2017).

Kenya’s maricultural industry remains undeveloped, despite it possessing 1.14 million hectares of potential farming area. If this resource were to be used, it could produce 11 million tonnes of fish a year, with an estimated worth of US$ 7.3 billion per annum¹¹.

10 Harmful Algae Event Database entry for Kenya http://haedat.iode.org/eventSearch.php?searchtext[countryID]=77 11 http://www.fao.org/fishery/facp/KEN/en

Human health and diseases - Kenya

The state of human health and disease prevalence along the coast of Kenya is influenced and exacerbated by high levels of poverty, low education levels, high cost of health care, a low doctor/patient ratio, lack or poor state of health infrastructure and the poor state of the environment (ASCLME, 2012a). Generally, the impact of ocean and climate change on the health of Kenya’s coastal populations remains poorly documented. Shigella bacteria have been identified in edible fish in Kenya (David et al., 2009), but it is not clear how many confirmed cases of shigellosis (which is particularly prevalent in children aged between 6 months and 5 years) are linked to the consumption of contaminated seafood.

Organisms that produce biotoxins and seafood poisoning have been documented in Kenyan waters (Wawiye et al., 1999), but to date, there are no records of associated health problems or diseases. In the case of Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP), there are travel advisories for tourists against this disease (which suggests CFP illnesses are a potential source of concern for human health) but again there are no reported incidences.

In general, the biggest threat to human health remains flooding (Okaka and Odhiambo, 2018).

Flooding events often result in outbreaks of cholera, nonspecific diarrhoea, cryptosporidiosis, rotavirus, and typhoid and paratyphoid (Stoltzfus et al., 2014). These diseases make it difficult to differentiate marine-borne pathogens from those arising from other sources¹². Setting up monitoring programmes should be a priority for risk mitigation in the region.

An aid worker collects health and nutrition data in Kenya.

Source: Shutterstock / marlenefrancia

12 https://www.who.int/cholera/countries/KenyaCountryProfile2010.pdf?ua=1