4. Evidence of impacts in the Western Indian Ocean
4.2 Impacts in Mozambique
13 Global Facility for Disaster Risk Reduction country profile for Mozambique https://www.gfdrr.org/en/mozambique 14 https://www.africanews.com/2019/04/16/cyclone-idai-s-death-toll-stands-at-847-thousands-need-food-water-and-shelter/
The key national disaster risk policy in Mozambique is the Master Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction 2017-2030, which his aligned with National Development Plan, the National Agenda 2025: Visão Estratégica de Nação, the National Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy 2013–2025, as well as the Sustainable Development Objectives.
(UNDRR, 2019). Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) have been mainstreamed into district planning and budgeting systems in the eight key sectors of agriculture, health, water, social protection, roads, the environment, meteorology and energy (UNDRR, 2019).
Extreme weather events - Mozambique
The coastline of Mozambique spans 2,700 km, and houses over 60% of the population (over 13 million people). Mozambique suffers from multiple extreme weather events including periodic cyclones, droughts and floods13. Droughts occur in the southern region, seven out of every 10 years, while floods occur on average every two to three years. On average the country loses 1.1%
of its GDP due to the impacts of droughts and floods on economic resources and activity (Irish Aid, 2018). The costs of one-off extreme events, in terms of lives lost and economic losses can be devastating. One example of this is Cyclone Idai, which hit in 2019. The cyclone triggered a deadly storm surge that killed over 1,000 people, affected 3 million more and caused US$ 2 billion worth of damage14. In some cities (e.g. Beira) >90% of infrastructure was lost.
Climate change predictions are severe for Mozambique’s low-lying coast. Beach erosion, short-term sea-level rise, and seawater intrusion all have serious implications for coastal agriculture and fisheries. Estimates suggest that parts of the coastline could be eroded 500 metres inland, posing a serious threat to the densely populated areas (MER, 2015). Rising sea levels could cause losses of up to 4,850 km2 (0.6% of the national land area) by 2040 (World Bank, 2010). Total annual damage losses in low-lying provinces such as Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala and Maputo are estimated to reach US$ 103 million yr-1 in 2040 with forced migration accounting for a large contribution of this cost (World Bank, 2010).
In terms of the cost of adaptation, the World Bank estimates the total investment required is approximately US$ 890 million yr-1 under a high sea-level rise scenario (World Bank, 2010).
More economically viable adaptation options vary from US$ 190 million to US$ 470 million yr-1 depending on the climate change scenario used (World Bank, 2010).
Cyclone Idai hits the Mozambique coastline.
Source: Shutterstock / lavizzara
Coral bleaching - Mozambique
Reef monitoring at the national level only began in Mozambique in 1999, after the first major coral bleaching event. In 1999, reefs covered 30-60% of Mozambique’s coastline. In 2017, this figure had dropped to just 20-30% (Obura et al., 2017). Half of Mozambique’s observed reefs exhibited medium to high levels of bleaching (>10%) during the global bleaching event in 2016 but mortality was low (< 10%) (Obura et al., 2017). The threats that climate change poses to reefs (e.g. increased seawater temperatures and terrestrial runoff after cyclones) is deemed to outweigh the impact of local communities (e.g. fishing) in Mozambique (McClanahan and Muthiga, 2017). Coral-reef related tourism is still relatively low in Mozambique, representing 0.47% of the country’s GDP (Spalding et al., 2017). The benefits of coastal protection are also considered to be low in Mozambique (Beck et al., 2018). However, these statements could also reflect the paucity of data available. Substantial investment is needed in monitoring programmes in Mozambique in order to fully appreciate the economic costs and benefits provided by their reefs (Obura et al., 2017).
Fringing coral reefs dominate Mozambique’s Quirimbas archipelago.
Source: Shutterstock / BlueOrange Studio
Harmful algal blooms - Mozambique
Nearshore coastal and pelagic marine surveys conducted in Mozambique have identified a variety of microalgal species that have the potential to cause HABs. These include including Pseudo-nitzschia spp. (the cause of Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning), Alexandrium spp. and Gymnodinium spp. (the cause of Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning), Protoceratium spp. and Prorocentrum triestinum (that produce red tides), and Ostreopsis spp. (the source of palytoxins associated with clupeotoxism, which causes gastrointestinal symptoms, and in severe cases, death) (Sá et al., 2013). However, few data exist about HAB occurrence, magnitude and/or frequency15.
Mozambique does not currently have a public repository of the number of intoxications from seafood, nor does it identify the costs of illness, misdiagnosis or death (Tamele et al., 2019).
Identifying such information will be paramount to managing the risks posed by climate change. In general, increases in coastal flooding events and/or the number of cyclones that hit the region increases nutrients levels, which together with increasing sea temperature are associated with increased HAB outbreaks in tropical areas.
15 Harmful Algae Event Database entry for Mozambique http://haedat.iode.org/eventSearch.php?searchtext[countryID]=105
Food security via fisheries and aquaculture - Mozambique
Mozambique’s fisheries are of critical importance to national food security as about 50% of the population’s protein comes from fish. The fisheries sector in Mozambique contributes an estimated 4% towards GDP, and represents 28% of foreign exports (Irish Aid, 2018). The value of Mozambique fishery exports was estimated to be worth US$ 60 million in 2014 (UNCTAD, 2017). The sector employs 95,000 people, with three to four times this number employed in the processing industry (Irish Aid, 2018).
Artisanal fishing typically contributes more to Mozambique’s fishing sector than commercial fishing, with 85% of the country’s fish catch being made up of small-scale fishermen (Irish Aid, 2018). Other segments in the sector include industrial and semi-industrial fishing. The latter, comprises mainly small trawlers involved in the domestic coastal shrimp fisheries.
Semi-industrial fishing accounts for 2% of annual marine catches and 6% of the total value (Souto, 2014). Industrial fishing includes large vessels flagged in Mozambique and other countries, mostly targeting crustaceans such as coastal and deep-sea shrimp, which are usually processed at sea for export to Japan and Europe. This latter segment accounts for 7%
of annual marine capture and 52% of total value (Oceanic Développement, 2014); 99.68% of the production is by capture. Despite Mozambique’s aquaculture potential and the Government’s efforts to promote the sector, it remains underdeveloped (Benkenstein, 2013).
Human health and diseases - Mozambique
Very little research work and surveillance of seafood-borne diseases has been conducted in Mozambique. Like for Kenya, the incidence of seafood diseases is difficult to estimate as most cases are reported and recorded as general diarrhoeal diseases, with little to no information about the specific pathogen responsible for the disease. Several infectious and diarrhoeal diseases are prevalent in Mozambique, including those resulting from Vibrio spp., Campylobacteriosis jejuni, Clostridium spp. (identified in Mozambique tilapia; Nol et al., 2004), Giardiasis, Rotavirus, Adenovirus, Hepatitis A/E, Salmonella and Shigella (Berger, 2018;
Nhampossa et al., 2015).
Of the marine- and waterborne human infections that have been distinguished in the literature, cholera has received the most attention. In recent years, cholera outbreaks have been occurring almost every year, and have been reported in: Cabo Delgado, Gaza, Inhambane, Maputu City, Maputo, Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia (Berger, 2018).
For example, the outbreak in 2017 resulted in 2,129 cases and four deaths16. Shortage of clean water and contamination of household drinking water further propagated the disease to other provinces. Severe flooding can also exacerbate the risk of cholera by displacing people and damaging infrastructure, including health facilities, which contributes to the spread of outbreaks. The projected increases in temperature and aridity forecast for Mozambique are likely to increase the spread of cholera in the future.
16 https://www.who.int/csr/don/19-february-2018-cholera-mozambique/en/