CHAPTER 4 SCOTLAND’S SEPARATISM IN THE CONTEXT OF
4.1 Argumentations Presented by SNP
4.1.3 The Social Case
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barrel of North Sea oil is nearly five times more expensive than it was in 2002.252 If the oil runs out in the next few years, then the economy of Scotland could really be in trouble if another banking crisis hits as there will not be that insulation provided by the wealth produced through the oil.253
The figures produced for the argumentations by the SNP need to be measured for preciseness and accuracy because, if the figures are not exact enough, it will be difficult to sustain the Scottish economy in the future. However, if the North Sea oil does persist then the SNP would have an unparalleled argument on their hands.
4.1.3 The Social Case
The social problems emanating from Scotland are well known and plentiful. Scotland has a history of poverty and social crisis. Scotland suffers from rates of relative poverty and ill health, disability and mental illnesses, violent crime and inequalities of life expectancy.254 On many aspects of social health, when compared to the UK, Scotland has compared poorly and is below the UK average.255 The SNP vows to change the whole scene by creating an improved welfare state for Scotland if Scotland became independent.
The values which SNP promised to achieved was to transform childcare services, abolition of the “bedroom tax,” pensioners’ incomes protected, and a guarantee that the
252 “Running on Fumes,” The Economist, March 1st 2014, http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21597890-scottish-nationalists-are-right-charge-britain-has-mismanaged-north-sea-oil-unionists [Last Accessed: November 30th 2015]
253 Pagnamenta, R., “Oil Price Collapse Costs 65,000 North Sea Jobs,” The Times, September 9th 2015,
https://www.google.com.tw/search?q=North+Sea+oil+crisis&rlz=2C1SAVS_enUS0538US0538&oq=North+Sea+oi l+crisis&aqs=chrome..69i57.4346j0j4&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8 [Last Accessed: November 30th 2015]
254 Maxwell, S. (2012), Evidence, Risk and the Wicked Issues: Arguing for Independence, Edinburgh: Luath Press (Viewpoint), p. 99
255 Maxwell, S. (2007), ‘A Poor Response’ in R. Brown (ed.), Nation In a State, Dunfermline: Dunfermline Press
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minimum wage will rise in line with inflation. Extension of childcare services will not only allow children to have a better quality of life at the start of their adolescence but also, parents will be able to return to work thus, delivering new job opportunities and income for the parents.
Abolition of the “bedroom tax” will save 82,500 households in Scotland an average of 50 pounds per month, with the inclusion of 63,500 households with a disabled adult and 15,500 households with children. A triple lock is promised on pensioners’ incomes, which means that pensioners’
incomes are protected and will increase either by inflation, earnings, or 2.5 per cent, which is the highest and this will provide pensioners’ with more security. In addition to this, minimum wage will rise in line with inflation, if this had been put in place for the last five years – argue the SNP – then this would have improved the earnings of the lowest paid Scots by an equivalent of 675 pounds.256
Nevertheless, there is little evidence to suggest that implementing these social policies will lead to a success in overturning the social problems entrenched in Scotland. Even though it has been argued by the SNP that the North Sea oil will provide increased revenue for Scotland and with it will come an improved rate of economic growth, thus benefiting not only the economy of Scotland but also, the social problems will be tackled with the extra revenue created.
This is the trickle-down theory of economic growth which argues that if a society increased their economic wealth, that revenue can eventually be percolated throughout society.257 However, the history of Scotland has discredited the trickle-down theory as poverty persisted258 and there was an increase in inequality through the two decades of economic growth between the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s. The Labour Governments of 1997-2005 only achieved limited success in recouping the social losses left by the preceding Conservative Governments. The success that they attained was through redistributing income from higher to lower income groups through tax credits, this resulted in a 25% drop in child poverty rates in Scotland by 2005. However, by 2006, progress of this policy had stalled and with recession around the corner, it was about to go into
256 White Paper, Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland, p. xii
257 Maxwell, S. (2012), Evidence, Risk and the Wicked Issues: Arguing for Independence, Edinburgh: Luath Press (Viewpoint), p. 107
258 Leef, G., “’Trickle-Down Economics’ – The Most Destructive Phrase of All Time?” Forbes, December 6th 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeleef/2013/12/06/trickle-down-economics-the-most-destructive-phrase-of-all-time/ [Last Accessed: November 30th 2015]
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reverse. In 2008-09, one in five Scots continued to live in poverty including just over one in five Scottish children.259 Opponents of independence would not be quelled by the precedent set by the governments before the SNP, therefore, there are major doubts about whether the SNP would be able to succeed these goals that they have aimed and promised to accomplish.
Furthermore, three challenges are highlighted when discussing the reality of completing the objectives set by the SNP. The first, is the one described above about Scotland’s past social letdowns, but also, the budget of Scotland could be put under immense pressure since there will be a cost of ‘failure demand.’ Failure demand is the demand caused by a failure to do right by the individual and by the community.260 The Independent Budget Report illustrates that Scotland could lose 39 billion pounds over the next fifteen years due to the failure demand absorbing around 40% of Scottish local authorities’ service budgets.261 The second challenge lies in the ageing population of Scotland and those who remain dependent on public services. As the population is growing to an older age, the problem of an ageing population is inevitable. It is estimated that around 27 billion pounds will be spent on additional health and social care by the Christie Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services.262 The last challenge lies with the overall debt accrued by the UK and Scotland’s increased cost of paying the national debt bills.
The Office of Budget Responsibility estimates that the UK Government’s annual debt interest payments will increase from 48 billion pounds in 2010-11 to 66 billion pounds in 2015-16.263 If Scotland became independent, they may still inherit their portion of the national debt and the figure inherited may become a huge burden for an independent Scotland. Even though advocates for independence can argue that if Scotland became independent, they will have free reign to set their own budget and control the revenue from oil, thus allowing an independent Scotland to be more financially stable than the rest of the UK. This could happen, however, an independent Scotland will be exposed to fluctuating oil prices and with this unpredictability, Scotland will not
259 McKendrick, J., et al. (2011), “Is Poverty Falling?” in McKendrick, J., et al. (eds), Poverty in Scotland 2011, London: CPAG
260 Maxwell, S. (2012), Evidence, Risk and the Wicked Issues: Arguing for Independence, Edinburgh: Luath Press (Viewpoint), p. 111
261 Mair, C., et al. (2011), Making Better Places: Making Places Better, Scottish Government Improvement Service Edinburgh; Independent Budget Report (2011), Scottish Government, Edinburgh
262 Scottish Government (2011), The Commission on the Future Delivery of Public Services, Edinburgh
263 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, (March 2011), Office of Budget Responsibility, HM Treasury
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have anyone else to fall back on if their oil were not sold; they would not have the solid base of the UK backing them.