Threats and Opportunities:
The Belt and Road Initiative
有危亦有機：「一帶一路」項目
What is the “Belt and Road Initiative”?
The “Belt and Road Initiative” is a global-scale undertaking by the Chinese government. The term “Belt” refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt, while “Road” refers to the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. These areas show China’s evolving role in the global economy. The geographical coverage of the Belt and the Road Initiative is widespread, creating a family of 65 nations in harmonious co-existence, many of which are in Europe and Asia. The initiative encourages Chinese enterprises to “go out”, or - in other words - go abroad in search for new commercial opportunities and strengthen regional economic partnerships. This will bring about significant trade expansion, economic prosperity, cultural exchange, technological innovation and infrastructural development. Examples of infrastructure development include railways, roads, ports, power plants and gas pipelines, an example of new technology being developed is financial technology. The total investment in the projects of this initiative is at least USD $1 trillion, and many of the funds are controlled from Hong Kong.
With the growth of protectionism and nationalism, many countries are becoming less willing to engage in trade or integrate with other countries, reducing trade and exchange across the world. The Belt and Road Initiative will be a good multi-faceted stimulus for international collaboration and connectivity, encompassing economic, cultural and social aspects. This way, the benefits of globalization will be maximized. aspects. This way, the benefits of globalization will be maximized.
甚麼是「一帶一路」項目？
「一帶一路」是中國政府倡議的一個大型計劃。「一帶」是指絲 綢之路經濟帶，「一路」則是21世紀海上絲綢之路。中國在 些地域展現出其在全球經濟中日漸重要的地位。「一帶」和「一 路」在地域上分 很廣，覆蓋逾65個國家，當中不少為歐亞國 家。 些國家融洽共存，共同構成一個大家庭。 個計劃鼓勵 中國公司「走出去」──前往海外尋找新的商機，以及加強地 區經濟合作。 將會催生大規模的貿易擴張、經濟發展、文化 交流、科技創新及基建發展。基建發展的例子包括大量興建鐵 路、道路、港口、發電廠和燃氣管道，創新科技發展的例子則 包括金融科技等。此計劃的投資總額至少達1萬億美元，當中 許多資金均在香港操作。 在當今保護主義和民族主義盛行的環境下，很多國家並不太 願意與其他國家貿易或融合，從而引致全球的貿易和交流減 少。「一帶一路」項目將會從經濟、文化和社會等多方面促進國 際合作及聯繫，從而令全球化的優勢得到充分發揮。June 2018 Issue 14
風險薈訊
RMBI Newsletter
What will be our Focus?
As glamourous as it may seem, there are various potential risks in the Belt and Road Initiative. This newsletter will focus mainly on six regions - namely East Asia, South Asia, South-east Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe - to investigate the embedded risks. Relevant examples and lessons learnt from interviews will also be presented.
我們將主力探討甚麼議題？
雖然「一帶一路」項目備受矚目，但當中也涉及各種潛在風險。 本通 將主力討論六個地區：東亞、南亞、東南亞、中東、非洲 及東歐，並研究當中的風險，以及匯報相關的例子及專訪成果。
Financial Risks in China
It is commonly believed that China will become the main beneficiary of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, China could also find itself at the center of the risk vortex as it is the dominant power in this initiative and its main source of capital. The initiative aims to build a connection between more than 60 countries across three continents. Therefore, both physical and digital infrastructure are critical for its success.
To fund the construction of such infrastructure, including railways and ports in Africa and Asia, China has to amass funds in the hundreds of billions of dollars from both domestic and offshore investors. The Chinese government has announced that it will commit USD$900 billion to the Initiative and state-owned banks in China will be playing a key role. China Construction Bank, the second largest bank in China and also the second largest bank in the world by assets, has raised more than 100 billion Chinese Yuan. Other state-owned banks are also raising enormous sums for the initiative.
Although such funding is supported by the Chinese government, the loans are by no means “fail-proof”. When looking at government-to-government lending, it goes beyond simply managing investing risk and looking for high returns. Intergovernmental relations are complicated. Unlike private investment where money flows into products with a higher return and lower risk, intergovernmental investment might, for political reasons, choose to fund risky projects in risky countries.
The countries receiving investment funds are mainly risky countries suffering from under development, some are politically unstable and under the threat of terrorism. If the infrastructure built fails to boost the local economy as expected, or worse, the construction project stalls and fails to complete, these loans of hundreds of billions of dollars would become nonperforming. Banks in China are running a major risk by holding such debts. These state-owned banks are often said to be “too big to fail” but if they do fail, China’s economy will certainly be devastated by a major financial crisis.
中國的金融風險
人們普遍認為，中國會成為「一帶一路」的主要受益國家。但作 為 項新倡議的主導力量以及主要資金來源，中國實際上也將 自身置於風險的中心。「一帶一路」的目的是在超過60個國家之 間建立合作與聯繫，而 些國家在地理上分 遼闊，橫跨亞、歐 、非三大洲。因此，實體和數碼基建無疑是決定「一帶一路」成敗 的關 因素。 些基礎設施包括實體的交通設施，如港口及鐵路，以及電信 通 網絡等數碼基建。為了資助 一系列的基礎設施建設，中 國必須向海內外投資者募集數千億美元計的資金。中國政府已 承諾將為「一帶一路」建設投資逾9000億美元。中國的國有銀 行將在資金募集中扮演重要角色。資產總量同時位列世界第二 和中國第二的中國建設銀行就已單獨募集了逾1000億人民幣 的資金。其他的中國國有銀行也已為此項倡議募集了巨額資金 。 儘管此類資金的募集是為中國政府所支持和倡導的， 些巨額 的貸款也 非零風險投資。資金的募集涉及到政府與政府間的 互相借貸時，它們就不再是單純的控制風險、尋求資本回報的 投資行為，而是不可避免地增加了政府間關係的複雜性。 所 週知，私人投資往往會尋求低風險高回報的投資產品，但政府 間投資則不然。 些資金極有可能會因為外交需要而流向一些 高風險國家的高風險項目。 獲得資金注入的 些國家之中，有相當一部分是飽受貧窮和發 展落後困擾的高風險國家，有一些國家甚至仍處於政局動蕩或 備受恐怖主義威脅的局面。如若 些新建設的基礎設施未能如 預期般振興當地的經濟發展，或甚 些基礎設施項目在建設的 中途爛尾收場，那麼 些數以千億計的貸款就會成為不良貸款 。提供 些巨額貸款的中國國有銀行無疑承擔着巨大的風險。 而 些銀行的體量十分龐大，並維繫着中國經濟發展的命脈， 因此被稱為「大到不能倒下」。假如 些大銀行落入破產的局面 ，中國無疑會遭受一場巨大的金融海嘯。Region 1: East Asia
地區一：東亞
Unfortunately, it is not only China’s financial system that will suffer, China’s big four state-owned commercial banks are simultaneously the four largest banks in the world. “Risks in China’s banking system is, by default, a risk to the global banking system”, said Bjorn Conrad, a longtime China observer.
In a nutshell, the major risk of the Belt and Road Initiative in East Asia is the financial risk in China as it has the potential to severely damage both China’s and the world’s economy.
而且，如因此觸發金融大海嘯，中國 不是唯一受害者。中國 的四大國有銀行同時亦是全球首四大銀行，它們憑着巨大體 量而在全球經濟中有着舉足輕重的地位。一名資深的中國研 究學者稱，中國銀行系統所面臨的風險亦是全球銀行業共同 面臨的風險。 簡言之，「一帶一路」在東亞的主要風險之一便是中國的金融 風險，它有可能對中國和全球經濟造成重大損失。
Economic-political Risk to China
China may also be subject to unfair treatment from devel-oped countries. For example, countries like the United Kingdom and United States may bar Chinese enterprises from acquiring their high technology due to protectionism and anti-dumping mindset. Other European nations or countries in North America may also enact unfair policies that target Chinese enterprises due to differences in political ideology, preventing China from acquiring the resources they need for expansion easily. For instance, non-Chinese foreign enterprises can acquire medical equipment from other countries while Chinese enterprises cannot do this easily. These unfair treatments due to political or economic considerations may make it difficult for China to promote its Belt and Road Initiative effectively.
中國的經濟政治風險
另一方面，中國也有可能遭到發達國家的不公平對待。例如， 英美等發達國家有可能出於貿易保護主義和反傾銷主義思維 而阻撓中國企業獲取發達國家的高新技術，其他歐美國家也 有可能會因為不同的政治意識形態而對中資企業施行不公平 的待遇，使中資企業無法獲得 些國家的資源，從而阻礙發展 步伐。其中一個常見的不公平待遇是，中資企業無法像於外資 企業一樣，可輕易地購買其他國家的醫療設備。 些針對中國 的不公平待遇有可能會導致「一帶一路」倡議不能達到預期效 果，因而可能成為東亞的風險點之一。Cultural Risk to China
China has a language that is different from those of other countries. For example, Central Asia consists of many former Soviet Republics and thus the population mainly speaks Russian. With a lack of language experts, misinterpretation or inaccurate translation could result, causing difficulties in communication between China and those nations. Moreover, Chinese dialects and writing styles differ in Chinese-speaking countries, posing obstacles in promoting the Belt and Road Initiative in these countries.
In terms of culture and lifestyle, there are significant differences between China and Belt and Road countries. For instance, Kazakhs like drinking camel milk and are gregarious Chinese are relatively conservative and have mild manners. Indians nod their head to signify “no” while shake their head to indicate “yes”, which is the exact opposite to Chinese cultural norms. These inter-cultural differences could easily lead to misunderstanding when China promotes itself abroad.
It is thus important for China to promote cultural inclusiveness, meaning that it has to be patient and show respect and a willingness to accommodate others’ cultures. To secure economic cooperation and promote exchange, China should foster mutual learning and cultural exchange with foreign countries. Chinese enterprises should also liaise with the local Chinese consulates in Belt and Road countries to learn more about the local culture, people and society. This will lower the risk of cultural conflict under the Belt and Road Initiative.
中國的文化風險
中國與「一帶一路」沿線的大部分國家都使用不同的語言，為 中國和其他國家的交流帶來語言障礙。如果缺乏精通有關國 家語言的專家，那麼就很容易出現錯誤或不準確的翻譯，從而 阻礙中國和其他國家之間的交流。此外，即使是說中文的國家 ，他們使用的方言或是語言習慣亦各不相同， 也為「一帶一 路」國家間的交流造成了障礙。 中國的文化與人民的生活習慣跟其他國家都有顯著差異。例 如：哈 克人習慣飲用駱駝 ， 種習俗在中國並不存在；哈 克人性格熱情奔放，而中國人卻相對更溫和以及保守；印度 人點頭表示否認，搖頭表示肯定，與中國的情況截然相反。 些文化間的差異有可能會導致中國在海外國家進行宣傳時產 生文化上的誤解。 因此，中國作為「一帶一路」的倡導國，向外國宣揚其文化包容 性就顯得十分重要了。 意味着中國要耐心對待文化上的差 異，並且展示出尊重、接納和適應彼此文化的意願。中國可以 通過促進雙邊文化交流和互相學習來鞏固經濟上的合作與交 流。中資企業應當和合作國家的領事館保持更加緊密的聯繫， 以此加深認識當地的風土人情和社會現狀。 樣才能減低「一 帶一路」的文化衝突風險。The Ambitious Global Giant
South Asian countries are mainly developing countries and are relatively backwards in terms of economic development. The Belt and Road Initiative is an opportunity for China to promote economic cooperation in order to achieve a win-win situation with these countries, and a chance to gain their trust and admiration. However, this strategy of leveraging economic power to develop geopolitical soft power has raised eyebrows in countries like India, which are worried about the risks that the Belt and Road Initiative may bring: loss of territorial sovereignty, or succumbing to certain actions that encroach on their sovereignty.
充滿野心的國際巨人
相對發達國家而言， 大多數南亞國家的經濟發展都比較落 後。「一帶一路」倡議為中國與 些國家達成互惠共贏提供了 一個契機，也為中國贏得 些國家的欣賞與信任提供了一個 機會。然而 種試圖以經濟利益發展政治外交軟實力的行為 卻讓一些國家感到憂慮，作為南亞第一大國的印度便是其中 之一。他們擔憂「一帶一路」會帶來一定程度的風險，例如領土 主權受損，或是屈服於某些侵犯主權的行為。Economic Aid
Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to provide $8.7 billion in economic relief to developing countries represented in the Shanghai Summit, and this has raised concerns that China is using the Belt and Road Initiative to engage in expansionism and consolidate its authority. India boycotted the summit and issued an official statement expressing that it cannot “accept a project that ignores its core concerns on sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Obviously, India is concerned about the influence China might exert on its territory, it fears that China’s real motive is to expand and increase its power internationally rather than assisting weaker economies.
經濟支援
習近平主席在上海峰會上承諾將為發展中國家提供87億美元 經濟援助，此舉令國際社會疑慮中國是否在利用「一帶一路」 來實現國際擴張和鞏固政權。印度抵制「一帶一路」峰會並發 表官方聲明稱：「印度無法接受一個不把領土主權和領土完整 性作為核心考量的項目。」顯然，印度十分擔憂中國在其領土 上的影響力，他們憂慮此類經濟援助的真正目的並不是幫助 經濟落後的國家，而是試圖擴張和加強中國的國際力量。Development of Ports
China has financed the development of a port in Gwadar, a city in the southwestern coast of Pakistan. Originally managed by the Maritime and Ports Authority of Singapore, the deep-water port was taken over by a Chinese state-owned enterprise in 2012. The performance of the company in developing port-related infrastructural facilities had been mediocre, which led to claims that China was merely using the port as a gateway to a new China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Critics believe that China’s intention was to establish economic linkages with countries in the Indian Ocean and control the maritime trade in the region. Suppose the accusations were true, it would lower navigation freedom in the Indian Ocean, which may threaten the oil import trade from the Middle East to India. India is thus quite suspicious about China’s $55 billion investment in the CPEC.
Apart from its actions in Pakistan, China’s port development works in Sri Lanka also stoke Indian fear. In 2010, China provided capital for establishing a port and an associated airport near its southern coastline in Hambantota, Sri Lanka.
港口的發展
中國資助了巴基斯坦西南部的城市瓜達爾的港口建設。此港 口起初由新加坡港務局管理，但其後在2012年，一家中國國營 企業獲得了 個深水港口的管理權。由於該企業在港口相關 的基礎設施建設上表現平平，因此引來中國只是想將此港口 變成「中巴經濟走廊」大門的指責。批評者認為中國想通過 個港口來建立與印度洋國家的經濟聯繫，並且試圖操縱印度 洋的貿易活動。假設 種批評實際發生了，那麼印度洋上的航 行自由度將會降低，印度從中東地區進口石油的貿易活動也 會受到威脅。因此印度對中國對「中巴經濟走廊」提供550億美 元投資的行為甚有戒心。 除了巴基斯坦外，中國在斯里蘭卡的港口建設也引起了印度 的恐慌。在2010年，中國資助了斯里蘭卡南部海岸線城市汗班 托塔的港口和配套機場的建設。港口的停泊區域都劃分給了 中國籍船隻，港口本身也由中國企業營運，使得 個港口無法 成為理想的南印度船運中心。倫敦國王學院一位國際關係專 家稱，中國與印度的陸地領土互相接壤，兩國已有陸路相連， 因而「海上絲綢之路」的印度部分的發展會加深印度對於中國 P. 4Region 2: South Asia
地區二：南亞
Probability of Political Instability
The negative perception of China in less developed countries may cause the population to disagree with their governments taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative; they may put pressure on their governments through protest or other means. All things considered, the China threat could induce cultural clashes, hampering local governments’ rule, in the end leading to instability in the South Asian region. The instability will be especially pronounced in countries with a strong ideology, such as India.
可能導致政局動盪
發展中國家的平民對中國的負面印象有可能會導致他們不滿 本國政府同意加入「一帶一路」倡議。他們可能會採取抗議或 是其他方式來向政府施壓。總而言之，「中國威脅論」有可能引 發衝突，妨礙當地政府的統治，最終導致南亞地區政局不穩定 的局面。 種動蕩局面在印度等有着強烈意識形態的國家會 表現得更為明顯。Indiaʼs Risk Management Strategy
For the sake of risk mitigation, India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member. Established in Shanghai, the SCO is a Eurasian economic, political and military organization aimed at promoting collaboration between member nations in addressing security concerns. Taking part in the SCO gives India a larger voice on the security issues on its land, and a chance to participate in large Central Asian oil and gas exploration projects, which allows it to deal with potential threats to its oil supplies. India’s membership of the SCO allows her to counter China’s influence and raise its political clout in the region.
印度的風險應對策略
為了規避風險，印度以正式會員的身分加入了上海合作組織。 上海合作組織成立於上海，是一個歐亞地區政治、經濟與軍事 合作組織，旨在促進成員國之間的合作來保衛國家安全。加入 個組織意味着印度在保護其國土安全方面有更大的話語權 ，以及有機會加入中東地區大型油氣開採項目，從而能 應對 在能源供應方面受到的潛在威脅。印度加入上海合作組織 一行為在一定程度上可以抵消中國的影響力，並增強印度在 區域政治上的勢力。Chinaʼs Risk Management Strategy
In order to reduce the negative influence of opposition from South Asian countries such as India, China has to maintain the Belt and Road’s positive image to make participating countries ‘fall for’ the projects and develop a sense of belonging. In fact, China will provide Belt and Road countries with better terms than those offered to other countries, including a higher technology and capital input. China should appropriately emphasize how the initiative would benefit those countries and how this could help develop their economies to create a positive image.
中國的風險應對策略
為了減輕南亞國家反對聲音帶來的不利影響，中國應當維持「 一帶一路」倡議的正面形象，使項目參與者「買帳」並產生歸屬 感。事實上，中國會為「一帶一路」國家提供一些其他國家所不 能享有的優惠政策，比如更大力的科技和資本輸出。中國應當 適當地強調「一帶一路」倡議將為其他國家帶來怎樣的益處、 將會如何促進其他國家的發展，以此來建立正面的形象。 However, the berthing spaces were all assigned to Chineseshippers and the port was to be operated by a Chinese enterprise, the port could not become an ideal shipping hub for southern India. Harsh V Pant, an international relations professor from King’s College London, pointed out that India already shares a land border with China, and thus the Indian part of the Maritime Silk Road development would further amplify India’s concerns about China’s political aggression. With facilities shared by both China and India, and the former playing the dominating role, it would become increasingly difficult for India to manage its territorial integrity and security.
在政治侵犯方面的疑慮。中國與印度共享許多設施，而中國在 其中佔主導地位，因此印度對其領土完整性和領土安全的維 護可能會 發艱難。
中國資助了巴基斯坦西南部的城市瓜達爾的港口建設。此港 口起初由新加坡港務局管理，但其後在2012年，一家中國國營 企業獲得了 個深水港口的管理權。由於該企業在港口相關 的基礎設施建設上表現平平，因此引來中國只是想將此港口 變成「中巴經濟走廊」大門的指責。批評者認為中國想通過 個港口來建立與印度洋國家的經濟聯繫，並且試圖操縱印度 洋的貿易活動。假設 種批評實際發生了，那麼印度洋上的航 行自由度將會降低，印度從中東地區進口石油的貿易活動也 會受到威脅。因此印度對中國對「中巴經濟走廊」提供550億美 元投資的行為甚有戒心。 除了巴基斯坦外，中國在斯里蘭卡的港口建設也引起了印度 的恐慌。在2010年，中國資助了斯里蘭卡南部海岸線城市汗班 托塔的港口和配套機場的建設。港口的停泊區域都劃分給了 中國籍船隻，港口本身也由中國企業營運，使得 個港口無法 成為理想的南印度船運中心。倫敦國王學院一位國際關係專 家稱，中國與印度的陸地領土互相接壤，兩國已有陸路相連， 因而「海上絲綢之路」的印度部分的發展會加深印度對於中國
Background of Southeast Asian Countries
There are nine Southeast Asian countries covered by the Belt and Road Initiative and they are: Indonesia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. These countries are also members of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations). China has had close relationships with ASEAN countries both geographically and historically. Since China shares a border with Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos, they have had a long history of contact and interaction. The largest ethnic group in Singapore is Chinese and large numbers of Chinese immigrants have settled in Malaysia and Indonesia since the Ming period in the 15th Century. Hence, it is only natural that the ASEAN region was chosen as the region for initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative.
背景資料
「一帶一路」所涉及的東南亞國家共有九個：印尼、緬甸、柬埔 寨、老撾、馬來西亞、新加坡、越南、泰國，以及菲律賓。 些國 家都是東南亞國家聯盟（東盟）的成員國。無論是從地理還是 歷史角度，中國都和東盟成員國有着緊密的聯繫。中國的國土 與越南、緬甸及老撾接壤，因此有着長期的交往史。新加坡的 主要人種為華人，馬來西亞和印尼也居住著大量自明代起移 居的華人。顯然，中國與東南亞地區息息相關，因此「一帶一路 」選在東南亞地區開始試行是順理成章之舉。Conflict
Having close contact does not mean the Belt and Road Initiative is smooth sailing. On the contrary, contradictions have surfaced since China first began to promote the Initiative. China’s border war with Vietnam in 1979, Indonesia’s large-scale anti-Chinese movement, ongoing conflict between ethnic Chinese and the local populations in Malaysia and Indonesia, border clashes between the Chinese and Myanmar army and disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam and other ASEAN countries over the South China Sea are all unfavorable to the development of the Belt and Road Initiative. The friction in this area is a risk factor that cannot be ignored.
仍存在衝突
緊密聯繫並不意味着「一帶一路」的發展可以順風順水。實際 上，中國在推行 項倡議的過程中存在諸多矛盾。越南在 1979年與中國交戰、印尼曾發生大規模的排華運動、馬來西 亞和印尼華人與當地人屢屢發生衝突、緬甸軍隊和中國軍隊 曾有過摩擦，中國與菲律賓、越南等國家都存在領海權爭端等 等，都是不利「一帶一路」倡議的因素， 些地區間的摩擦亦是 不可忽視的風險元素。Overcoming Risks
The biggest threat to ASEAN countries is incomplete infrastructure which needs to be addressed to sustain economic growth in the long term. Hence, the Chinese led infrastructure building program will be decisive to the success of the Belt and Road Initiative. There are over 130 infrastructure development projects planned for this region requiring investments of over USD 250 billion. The most important projects include building a railway connecting China and Southeast Asian countries which will eventually allow China to connect directly and establish direct economic links with the main economies of the region. This will be beneficial for all countries involved.
One recently completed project is the highway system connecting Laos’ capital, Vientiane, to China. Estimated to have cost USD 6 billion, this is equivalent to more than 40% of the GDP of Laos. A similar project is also being initiated in Indonesia. These infrastructural projects will help manage the risks in these countries.
應對風險
東南亞國家面對的最大風險是基礎設施不完備。要維持長期 的經濟發展， 些基礎設施必須予以改善。因此，中國所主導 的基礎設施建設對於「一帶一路」計劃的成果有着決定性的作 用。中國在東南亞地區計劃了超過130個基礎設施建設項目， 需要的資金總額超過2500億美元。其中，最重要的項目包括建 設貫通中國和東南亞國家的鐵路運輸系統。鐵路建成後，中國 可以與東南亞核心國家進行直接的經濟來往， 對雙方國家 都大有裨益。 最近落成的一項「一帶一路」項目是貫通老撾首都萬象和中國 的高速公路系統。 個項目估價60億美元，耗資規模超過老撾 國內生產總值的40%。印尼也在開展類似的項目。 些改善基 礎設施的項目都有助於應對區內風險。 P. 6Region 3: Southeast Asia
地區三：東南亞
Background
Eleven countries in the Middle East are covered by the Belt and Road Initiative: Iran, UAE, Egypt, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan and Bahrain. Each has its own government structure and economic development, some are involved in armed conflict and some even embroiled in civil war.
背景資料
被納入「一帶一路」計劃的中東國家共有十一個：伊朗、阿聯 、埃及、以色列、伊拉克、卡塔爾、科威特沙特阿拉伯、阿曼、約 旦以及巴林。各個中東國家的政府架構、經濟發展狀況、武裝 衝突和內戰狀況都不盡相同。
Risks in the Middle East
Iraq is in a continuous state of internal strife due to armed conflict between extremist terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and other armed groups and is thus a high security risk. Another country with a high security risk is Egypt where there have been social disorder and anti-government protests; the new government is currently working hard to stabilize the country.
Government effectiveness is another important risk factor for countries in the Middle East. Government efficiency risk assessment takes into account policy formulation, bureaucratic competence, degree of bureaucracy, level of corruption, credibility of the government, ability to protect human rights, etc.
Iran and Iraq urgently need improvement in their infrastructure as they both suffered from devastating wars and economic recessions. In January 2006, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Iran and signed more than 17 agreements starting 25 years of economic, political and military cooperation. China and Iran had been working together in several areas since 2009, building a strong foundation for the Belt and Road Initiative.
中東地區的風險
伊拉克的武裝衝突不斷，聖戰分子所組成的極端恐怖組織使 安全風險 增。埃及是另一個高危國家，社會騷亂和反政府抗 議使國內動蕩不安，新政府仍在努力穩定政局。 中東地區所面臨的另一個風險是政府效率低下。政府效率風 險的衡量考慮了政策制定、政府部門運作、官僚主義嚴重度、 腐敗程度，政府公信力以及人權保護能力等因素。 伊朗和伊拉克長期被戰爭和經濟衰退所摧殘，因此兩國急需 改善國內的基礎設施。習近平主席於2006年訪問伊朗，兩國 簽訂超過17項協議，並確定長達25年的政治、經濟和軍事合 作關係。從2009年起，中國和伊朗展開多方面合作，為「一帶 一路」倡議打下堅實的基礎。Risk of Culture Clash
The religions and cultures of the Middle East are not so well known to other countries. Moreover, many Chinese companies lack knowledge of the complex legal and administrative framework in the region. Islamic law is widely practiced in the region while companies usually follow international business rules, their differences could lead to legal clashes. China lacks legal experts in the local laws of the Middle East, compelling Chinese firms to frequently seek help from foreign law firms. This is an unhealthy situation as companies should have sufficient legal knowledge to guide them to cautiously deal with their legal matters. Over reliance on foreign lawyers shows they have a low legal knowledge which poses a serious institutional risk. If these firms understand local laws, they would be able to handle the legal risks should the local government be overthrown or displaced.
文化衝突風險
中東國家的文化和宗教信仰並不為其他國家所熟知。此外，許 多中國公司對該地區複雜的法律系統和監管系統都缺乏了解 。中東國家普遍採用伊斯蘭法，而外國公司普遍遵從國際商業 法則，兩者的差異會導致法律上的衝突。中國欠缺熟悉中東地 區法律的專家，因此常常需要求助於外資律師事務所。 並不 是一個健康的局面，因為企業理應擁有完備的法律知識來指 導企業自身謹慎處理法律事務。過分依賴於外資律師事務所 顯示 些企業法律知識薄弱，因此令自身承受着極大的風險。 若 些企業了解當地法律，那麼即使當地政府被推翻或是被 取代，他們亦更能應對法律風險。Region 4: The Middle East
地區四：中東地區
Relationship Between Africa and China
The close relationship between China and Africa began long before the “One Belt, One Road” initiative was first proposed in 2013. As early as in 2009, China had surpassed the United States to become Africa’s largest trading partner. Other than trading, China has invested heavily in infrastructure in Africa in the past four years. Thus, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative is just another program binding China and Africa tighter together.
非洲與中國的關係
中國和非洲的緊密聯繫，遠早於在2013年提出的「一帶一路」 倡議。早於2009年，中國就已超越美國，成為非洲的最大貿易 夥伴。除了貿易外，中國也在過去四年大幅投資於非洲的基礎 建設，所以「一帶一路」項目只是中非之間另一項更緊密的聯 繫。Risks in Africa
China’s generosity has been treated with suspicion. Critics have pointed out that such generous investments might not be economically rational, and rather than looking for financial returns, they are for fulfilling the goal of political control. They believe those construction projects and capital injection are part of the Chinese government’s effort to gain diplomatic support and to take control over oil resources. Whether China is pushing for a new form of colonialism remains to be seen, but we can be sure that these projects contain great political risks.
Another major risk that companies face when doing business in African countries is security risk. China is definitely not the first to see value in Africa’s potential. Since the beginning of the 21st century, many Western companies have tried to expand their business in Africa but many fell victim to political instability and security hazards. The standard of medical care in Africa is suboptimal, causing many employees to shun postings to African countries. Currently, many companies operating in Africa have to set up their own army to protect their property and employees. The enormous spending in security and shortage of man power make it difficult to build a successful business in Africa.
在非洲萌生的風險
中國的慷慨投資惹人猜疑。有評論家指出 樣的投資在經濟 層面而言可能並不理智，因此有關投資並非為了錢財回報，而 是為了滿足政治操控的目的。他們相信那些建設項目及所注 資本是中國政府的政治工具，旨在贏取外交上的支持及掌控 石油資源。中國是否在推行新殖民主義仍有待觀察，但我們可 以肯定， 些項目帶有巨大的政治風險。 安全風險是非洲國家面對的另一重大風險。中國必然不是首 個留意到非洲潛在價值的國家。21世紀初以來，很多西方的私 人公司嘗試在非洲國家拓展他們的商業版圖，但是很多公司 都成了政局不穩或安全危險的受害者。非洲的醫療狀況未如 理想，令很多 員不願被派駐非洲國家。現在，很多在非洲經 營的公司都要自組軍隊，以保護自身的財產和 員。在安全方 面的龐大支出，以及勞工短缺問題，均導致在非洲經營的企業 面對重重困難。Expected Path of OBOR in Africa
Political and security risks have led to uncertainties in the future development of African countries. If foreign compa-nies or domestic compacompa-nies cannot boost the local econo-my, infrastructure projects would be doomed to fail. In conclusion, the major threat to Africa is growth risk—what will happen if the infrastructure projects fail to grow the economy?
「一帶一路」在非洲的預料路向
政治及安全風險為非洲國家的未來發展帶來不確定性。 若 外來或本地公司不能振興本地經濟，基建項目便會注定失敗。 總的來說，非洲的最大風險是增長風險──若基礎建設不能 讓經濟增長，會有甚麼後果？ P. 8Region 5: Africa
地區五：非洲
Risk of Disintegration of the European
Given the large number of countries in Eastern Europe, division is a serious concern. In 2016, as the “Belt and Road” projects brought 35 billion euros of direct investment into the European Union (EU), many EU countries were keen to take a share, some even engaged in transactions with China that might have been opposite to the EU’s foreign policy initiatives. The EU lacks a unified policy towards China, and this has encouraged some EU countries to establish their own bilateral ties independently with Beijing. This phenomenon may accelerate the fragmentation of Eastern Europe and possibly erode EU’s core values: cooperation in good faith and ensuring fair trade.
歐盟分裂的風險
東歐國家 多，因此分化較為嚴重。在2016年，由於「一帶一路 」項目為歐盟帶來350億歐羅的直接投資，所以不少歐盟國家 積極加入競爭，有些國家更與中國作出可能與歐盟的對外政 策背道而馳的交易。歐盟缺乏一套對中國的統一政策，因此變 相鼓勵各國獨自與北京建立雙邊關係。 些現象有可能加速 東歐國家的分化，更可能破壞歐盟的核心價值：在互信中合作 及確保公平貿易。Region 6: Eastern Europe
地區六：東歐
Rivalry between European Nations
Rivalry within Europe are commonplace since each country wants to compete for China’s resources. For example, while Poland was hesitating on whether to accept Chinese investment due to concerns about security, its neighbors have swiftly entered the competition. Moreover, the “16 + 1” mechanism brought forward by China in 2012, where the Chinese Prime Minister would meet with the leaders of 16 EU members annually, has also led to division among them.
歐洲國家之間的競爭
歐洲內的競爭很常見，因為各國都要爭奪中國的資源。以波蘭 為例，當它還在為安全考慮而猶豫應否接受中國的投資時，鄰 國已迅速加入競爭。另外，在2012年中國推出的「16 + 1」合作 計劃中，中國國務院總理每年會會晤16個國家的領導人，例如 歐盟成員。 也會令歐盟國家分裂的問題浮現。A Disunited Europe
The political gestures of EU countries have led to increased hostility between them. Take the United Kingdom as an example: it announced in public that it was joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) backed by Beijing, propelling other members to rush forward to embrace it amid much disagreement and criticism. In Hungary, President Viktor Orban publicly supported the view that China should be considered a market economy, which was against the EU’s core values, tarnishing its image in the European and international community. These gestures have widened the ideological gap between countries and hurt their unity. It is noteworthy that many EU member states
歐洲並不團結
歐盟國家的政治姿勢增加了彼此的敵意。例如，英國公開宣 其加入了由北京運作的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，導致其他成 員一面發出批評及反對聲音，一面又忙不迭投懷送抱。在匈 利，總統奧班 維克多公開支持中國應被視為市場經濟。 與 歐盟的核心價值相違背，令匈 利在歐洲國際社群中的形象 受損。 些政治姿勢擴大了國家之間的意識形態差異，並損害 了彼此的團結。Implications of Development in Eastern
Europe for China
Moreover, China can utilize the global Chinese network. Many Chinese went to Eastern Europe to work after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s at a time when the Eastern European and Chinese economies were in ruins. Not only did they learn much, but they also built good connections across the globe. Since the early 2000s, Chinese enterprises have been expanding overseas and those Chinese interpersonal networks have been put to good use, allowing China to cooperate with other countries successfully. It has also lowered the risk of being a threat to foreign entities.
東歐發展對中國的意義
另外，中國也可以充分利用全球的華人網絡。在1990年代初期 ，蘇聯瓦解後，東歐和中國的經濟都千瘡百孔，很多中國人前 往東歐國家工作。他們不但從中學到了很多東西，更在全球建 立了良好的人際關係。自2000年代初期開始，中國企業開始往 海外發展，那些華人原本建立的人際網絡便派上用場，讓中國 能順利展開跟其他國家的合作，亦減低了其對外國構成威脅 的風險。General Economic Risks in
Less Developed Countries
If a project in a developing nation is delayed, the country must compensate the contractors and agree to pay more in interest expense. This disregard for time and lack of time management is especially prevalent in countries like India; this significantly increases the time costs. With rapidly falling exchange rates and many restrictions on foreign currencies, many less-developed countries face financial risks that exceed their expectations. They could end up with not having sufficient funds to repay their debts incurred in infrastructure projects.
In response, the government provides many policy-related bank loans to support Chinese enterprises in carrying out ‘Belt and Road’ projects. This helps to shift the commercial risk to the government, which can leverage its huge financial resources to help reduce the economic risk.
發展中國家的一般經濟風險
若發展中國家的發展項目延誤，他們便須向承包商作出賠償 及承擔更多利息開支。缺乏時間觀念的狀況在印度等國家尤 其嚴重， 會大大增加時間成本。在匯率急跌及外匯限制 多 的情況下，很多發展中國家面對着超出預期的財務風險，最終 可能沒有足 資金來償還用於基建的貸款。 為此，政府提供了很多政策性銀行貸款，以支持中國企業推行 「一帶一路」項目。 樣有助把商業風險轉移到政府，而政府可 提供龐大的財務支援，可有助減輕經濟風險。 have been quite welcoming to Chinese investment becauseof the benefits it brings. Countries like Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic have received much economic support from China, which has allowed them to develop their telecommunication, energy and real estate sectors. Therefore, they generally are less resistive towards Chinese investors compared with others which are wary of China’s pursuit of its geopolitical interests. If European countries treat China in different ways and not with a united front, the EU’s mechanism could be damaged, leading to a divided Europe.
It is of paramount importance that European countries maintain their unity through total cooperation, otherwise the EU could face disintegration.
值得留意的是，很多歐盟成員對於中國的投資者是頗為歡迎 的，因為它能為各國帶來好處。羅馬尼亞、匈 利和捷克共和 國等國家從中國獲得了很多經濟支持，藉此發展電信、能源 及房地產。相比於其他擔心中國擴張地緣政治的國家，它們 對中國投資者顯得並不那麼抗拒。若多個歐盟成員以不同的 方式對待中國，歐盟的運作就很容易受阻，歐洲內部也會因 而分化。 歐盟國家透過通力合作維持其團結非常重要，否則，歐洲就 有可能分裂。 P. 10
Conclusion
The Belt and Road Initiative is a complex and multi-faceted global issue, encompassing social, political, economic and cultural aspects. We cannot simply look at this enormous undertaking solely from an economic viewpoint and neglect the others. It has been observed that many projects under the Belt and Road Initiative are loss making or offer no economic benefit, but they foster development and integration between China and other nations. Despite the risks, China can use it as political capital in exchange for trade opportunities in the future.
There is no doubt that there are risks in any venture. The core question is whether the outcomes brought about by the Initiative override the expected risks, or vice versa. It is vital that China strikes a balance between risk control and profit maximization. Take Chinese firm China Resources (CRC) as an example, the company has for many years helped numerous Chinese state-owned enterprises conduct risk assessment for their overseas investment. The assessed areas include cultural, capital and others, and they clearly lay out what can or cannot be done within the investment projects. These assessments are helpful for China to manage the risks as it promotes development overseas.
總結
「一帶一路」項目是一個複雜的全球性議題，它涉及社會、政 治、經濟及文化等 多不同的領域。我們不可只從經濟層面 看待 個大型項目，而忽略其他角度。我們可以看到，很多在「 一帶一路」下的項目都涉及金錢損失，或並不帶有任何經濟 利益，但是它們能促進中國和其他國家的發展及融合。雖然「 一帶一路」會帶來風險，但中國可把它用作一個政治資源，以 換取未來的經濟貿易機會。 無疑，凡事皆有風險。我們討論的核心問題是：究竟「一帶一 路」帶來的機遇是否大於預期的風險，或者正好相反？中國必 須在風險管制及利潤最大化間取得適當的平衡。以中資企業 華潤集團為例，它多年來曾幫助不少中國國營企業為海外投 資作出風險評估。評估範疇包括文化、資金及其他方面，並清 楚列明了在投資項目中可做及不可做的事項。 些評估有助 於中國在向海外發展的同時，妥善管理風險。 Mr Lee Ho YenConsultant and Belt and Road Initiative expert China Resources (CRC)
李浩然，華潤集團顧問及「一帶一路」的專家
Professor Chan Ka Ki 陳嘉琪教授
Former Deputy Secretary for Education, Education Bureau HKSAR Government 已退休前教育局副秘書長
Professor of Practice, Faculty of Education, HKU 香港大學教育學院實務教授
Text 撰文
YUNG Chun Nok, Jorge 翁俊諾 (Year 1 一年級學生)
PARK JooYoung, Benjamin (Year 2 二年級學生)
WEN Xin, Cody 溫馨 (Year 3 三年級學生)
Students of Risk Management & Business Intelligence Program
風險管理及商業智能學課程學生
Advisors 顧問
Prof. Raymond WONG (Program Director) 黃智榮教授 Prof. Lancelot JAMES (Program Co-director) 在林壽教授 Prof. Kani CHEN (Program Co-director) 陳卡你教授
Dr. Jiying WANG (Undergraduate Program Coordinator) 王繼英博士
Risk Management and Business Intelligence Program The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Phone: 3469 2399 Fax: 3104 0026
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://www.rmbi.ust.hk
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General references:
- http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=One-Belt-One-Road-an-economic-roadmap-(Sep).pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=OBORSept2016 - https://www.iffo.org.hk/docs/default-source/Default/ge-one-belt-one-road-report-engversion_economist.pdf?sfvrsn=2
- http://406wgw3346mpao4bj1jjj3q1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/CEO_Newsletter_September2016.pdf
About East Asia:
- https://globalriskinsights.com/2017/06/three-domestic-challenges-chinas-one-belt-one-road-initiative/ -
http://china-trade-research.hktdc.com/business-news/arti-cle/The-Belt-and-Road-Initiative/The-G-C-C-and-China-s-One-Belt-One-Road-Risk-or-Opportunity/obor/en/1/1X000000/1X0AA9ZA.htm - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-could-be-the-next-risk-to-the-global-financial-system.html
About South Asia:
- Jean-Marc F. Blanchard China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative and South Asia: A Political Economic Analysis of its Purposes, Perils, and Promise - http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/india-challenges-chinas-intentions-one-belt-one-road-initiative
- http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/what-does-shanghai-cooperation-organisation-membership-mean-for-india/article18825646.ece - http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-become-full-members-of-shanghai-cooperation-organisation-sco/article18912600.ece
About Southeast Asia:
- http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=One-Belt-One-Road-an-economic-roadmap-(Sep).pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=OBORSept2016
About the Middle East:
- http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=One-Belt-One-Road-an-economic-roadmap-(Sep).pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=OBORSept2016
About Africa:
- http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2093410/can-china-score-new-win-africa-xi-jinpings-belt-and - https://theconversation.com/where-africa-fits-into-chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative-78016
About Eastern Europe:
- http://www.brinknews.com/does-chinas-one-belt-one-road-threaten-an-east-west-rift-within-europe/
- https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/05/23/europes-mixed-views-on-chinas-one-belt-one-road-initiative/ - http://europarlamentti.info/en/values-and-objectives/principles/
