地緣經濟稟賦與經濟威壓：俄國對烏克蘭兩次天然氣制裁事件之比較 - 政大學術集成

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(1)U. U. R. E 0 0 6. 2. 9 2 0 6. 6. S. G 06. :2: 1. AC. 6 ::2 6 6. 6. 2. 09 2 6. 6 2 6: 6 39 260 26.

(2) ................................................................................................................ 1 ........................................................................................ 3 .................................................................................................... 5 ........................................................................................ 7 .................................................................................................. 11. 治政 ...................................................................................................... 13 大立下. ‧ 國. 學. .................................................................................. 13. ‧. Nat. 發. .......................................................................................... 28. y. sit er. io. .......................................................................................... 36. al. n. 發. .................................................................. 35. Ch. i Un. v. e...................................................................... ngchi 50 ...................................................................... 65. 發. ...................................................................... 76 發. .............................................................. 77 .................................................................................. 88 ...................................................................... 98. i.

(3) 下. ........................................................................................ 106. 1993. 下................................................................................... 106. 2006. 下................................................................................... 116 ........................................................................................ 122. ............................................................................................................ 131 .................................................................................................................... 145. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. Ch. engchi. ii. i Un. v.

(4) 4.1. 1993-2006 .......................................... 91. 6.1. .............................................................................. 132. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. Ch. engchi. iii. i Un. v.

(5) 1.1 發. GDP. 3.2. 發. 3.3. 發. 4.2. 發. 1991-2006 .................................................. 48. 發. 1991-2009 .............................. 64. 立. 1994-2012 ...................................................... 82 1991-2012 .............................. 83. Nat. 發. io. y. al. 4.6. 6.1. 1991-2012 .................................................. 86. n. 4.5. ........................................................ 85. sit. 4.4. 5.1. 治政 1994-2012 .......................................................... 81 大. ‧. 發. 意 1991-2012 ........... 46. 學. 發. ⽂發 /. GNP. 說. Gazprom. 4.1. 4.3. GDP. er. 3.4. 1991-2012 ........................................ 45. ‧ 國. 3.1. .................................................................................................... 11. 發. Ch. i Un. v. e n g 1991-2006 c h i ........................................100. 1992-2012 ................................................................ 126 樂. ⽂BCM意. ................................. 141. 6.2. .................................................................. 142. 6.3. 2010-2016 ........................................................ 143. iv.

(6) 間. 發. 於間. 發. 間間. 發. 間. 間於發. 政治大發. 知間. 立樂. 意間. 發. 間. 於. 發於. y sit. n. al. 間. 會. Ch. e n g發c h i. 間. 於. 於. er. io. 間. 間發. ‧. 在. Nat 間發. 間. 學. ‧ 國. ⽂. 間. i Un. v. 1991. 於. 間. 間. 於. 間. 間間間. 間. 發. 發. 1. 於. 間.

(7) 間發. 於. 間. 間. 間 1993. 發. 發. 2006. 間. 於. 機⽂Boris Yeltsin意. 發. ⽂Vladimir Putin意. 於. 間發發. 間. 學. 於. 樂. ‧. 於. y. Nat io. sit. 間. 間. 政治大於發. ‧ 國. 立. 間. n. al. er. 間. 發. Ch. engchi. 2. i Un. v. 樂.

(8) 間. 間. 於. 間於. 發. 發. 間. 發. 樂. 於. ‧ 國. 間發. 政治大間. 於. 發. sit. n. al. Ch. 於發. 有. engchi. er. io. 於. i Un. v. 間於發. 樂. 樂. 間下樂. 樂. 於於⽂endowment意. 間. y. Nat ⾃. 間. 間. ‧. 發. 間. 學. 間. 有. 立樂. 40. 間. 間間. 於. 天 3. 樂.

(9) 樂. ⽂. 意間. 間. 間於1. 1993. 發. 2006. 間. 間發. 1993. 樂. 政發治大間. 間. y. 2006. sit. Gazprom. n. al. Ch. e n點g c h會i. 於. i n 發 U. 間. v. 間. 發. 間. 間. ⽂Naftogaz Unrainy意果於. 1. 於. Sevastopol. er. io 間. 發. ‧. Nat 國. Gazprom意. 發. 於1993. 間. ⽂. 學. ‧ 國. 立間. 1993. 樂Sevastopol. 國. 2006. 間. 於. 2006. 於. 間於. NAK 得. 發間. 於. Robert D. Blackwill and Jeniffer M. Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (London: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2016), p. 10. 4.

(10) 發. 1993. 得. 2006. 間. 間. 於. 發. 間. 間於. 發 Gazprom. 於發. ‧ 國. 2005. 機. 發. Gazprom 間. al. n Gazprom 於. 間間. Gazprom 間他. 於. Gazprom. 發. er. io. 間. 間. y. Nat. 發. 1990. 1993. ‧. 間. 發. 立. 政治大得. 學. 間. 2005. 發. sit. 發. 於. Ch. 間. engchi. i Un. v. Gazprom. 得. 1993 機. 發. 2000 於. Gazprom 樂. Gazprom. 間於. 5. 樂 Gazprom.

(11) 間發. 1993. 間. 於2005. Gazprom. 發. 間於. NAK 1990. 間. 間. 2000. 間發. 2000 間. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. 間發. 間. n. 間 1993. Ch. engchi 間. 於. 2006. 6. sit. 於去. er. io. a下l. Gazprom. 去. y. 下. 2006. 於. ‧. 於. Nat. 1993. 發. i Un. v. 下.

(12) 發. 1993. 間. 2006 於. 間. 發. 間於. 增. John Gerring. 於. ‧ 國. ‧. 於. Nat io. sit. y. 於2 Gerring. n. a間l. er. 間. 間. 學. 間. 立. 政治大樂. Ch. e間n g c h i U. v ni. 間. 於3. 間. Arend Lijphart 間間. 2 3. 間於. 間. 快於. John Gerring, Case Study Research: Principles and Practices, 2 ed., Strategies for Social Inquiry (Cambridge University Press, 2016), pp. 29-30. Gerring, Case Study Research: Principles and Practices, pp. 53-55. 7.

(13) 樂. 於. 間. 間. 間. 間. 間於. 間. 間. 間. 於. 間. 政治於大 4. 立. ‧ 國. 間. n. er. io. 於. 間. Ch. e n g樂c h i. 發間. v. 於. 間去樂. 發. 於. 發. 5. i n U發. 樂發. 間. 4. sit. y. 間. al. 於. 於5. ‧. 得. Nat. 間. 增. 學. 間. Robert Blackwill. 於. 間. Jennifer Harris 樂. Arend Lijphart, "Comparative Politics and Comparative Method," The American Political Science Review 65, no. 3 (1971): pp. 688-690. Gerring, Case Study Research: Principles and Practices, p. 131. 8.

(14) 樂. 間. 間於. 下於6. 間. 間於. 間. William Norris. 間. Gazprom. 發的. 發. ‧ 國. 間. 間發. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat 於. 發. C間h. engchi. 間發. 於. i n U. v於. 間. 發間. 間. 發. 發. 間. 間發於. 間2009. Sevastopol 會. Gazprom. 間. 6. ⼒. ‧. 發. Gazprom. 學. 發. 間. 政治大. 立. 於. 間. 於. Blackwill and Harris, War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, pp. 87-90. 9.

(15) 間. 間. 於. 於. 間. 於. 間發. 間. 機. 只. 於發. 間. 間. al. n. 間. 下. Ch. 下. 下. 下. 間. 下. engchi 於. 下間. 發. 得. i Un. v. 間間下於. 10. 發. sit. 樣間. er. 發. io. 於. 於. y. 間. 次間. ‧. ‧ 國. 間. Nat. 間. 學. 間. 政治大於間1990. 立. 發. 間. 間間.

(16) 1.1 GNP & GDP. Gazprom. Gazprom. 政治大 Gazprom. 學. ‧ 國. 立. Gazprom. ‧. 於. 間. al. n 2006. 發. 樂. Ch. 樂. 下樂1993. 間. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 1.1. 1993. engchi. 樂. i於v n U. 於下. 2006 間. 間. 發. 於 1991. 個. 2000 機. Gazprom. 於. 個. 發. 間間. 11. 發.

(17) 發發. ⼤. 個. 於. 1993. 間. 2006. 下. 立. 於. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. Ch. engchi. 12. i Un. v. 下於.

(18) 間下. 2006. 下. 間. 於. 下. ⽇間. 於下. 間. 間. 下於. 政治大下. 學. ‧ 國. 立. ⽂Economic Statecraft意於7. 個. 間. ‧. 增. 1993. y. Nat. 於. 樂. n. al. 間. 樂. 樂. Ch. 間. er. io. sit. 於David Baldwin. e n8 g c h i 於. 於. 發. i n U. v. 樂. 1992. 間 Baldwin. 間發. 間於. 1992 下間. 7 8. 下. David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft (Princeton University Press, 1985), p. 32. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, pp. 32-33. 13. 樂.

(19) 過樂. 樂. 樂. 於9. 間Robert Pape. Baldwin. 下增. 間⽂coerce意間. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 下樂. Pape. Baldwin. n. al. 間. 下. y. 間. sit. io. 間. ⽇. 間. ‧. Nat. 得. 間發. Pape. 於10 Baldwin. 間. 間Baldwin. 於11. 下. 學. Pape. 於. Ch. 下. Pape. er. 間. 下. n U i engch 次. iv. 間. 個. 於. 於. 間. 間. 下下. 間. 間. 9. 間. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, pp. 40-42. Robert A. Pape, "Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work?," International Security 22, no. 2 (1997): pp. 93-94. 11 David A. Baldwin and Robert A. Pape, "Evaluating Economic Sanctions," ibid.23 (1998): p. 191. 10. 14.

(20) 下. 於12 Baldwin. 增. Pape. 間. 間增. Pape. 樂增. 間. 間. 間. 樂增. 間. 間. 於Baldwin. 下. 間. 間間發. 13. 立. 政下治大. 得間. 於. 間1994. 樂2006. n. al. Baldwin. C 間1994 h. 間. sit. Pape. 2006. er. io. 於. 發. 發. y. 間發. Nat. 下. 1994. 間. 2006 間. 間. ‧. ‧ 國. Baldwin. 於. 學. 間. i n U. v. e n g c h i 樂2006 下. 間. 於. 間. 於Clifton Morgan 18. 於. 下間. 於14. 12 13 14. Robert A. Pape, "Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work?," ibid.22 (1997): p. 97. David A. Baldwin and Robert A. Pape, "Evaluating Economic Sanctions," ibid.23 (1998): pp. 192193. Navin A. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," International Interactions 39, no. 1 (2013): p. 84. 15.

(21) 下樂. 下. 於說. 下. 2. 下. 下. 2. 立. 政下治大. ‧ 國. 下. 9. sit 間. n. al. Ch. 下. 間增. 增間. 間. 增. 下. 樂增下. 樂增. 間. 於. 17. 於. v ni. e於n g cDavid hi U Lektzian. 間下於17 Morgan. 下. er. io. 下. 6. y. Nat. Morgan 16. 3. 於. ‧. 於15. 下. 學. 下. 間. 13 下間. 間. 於. 3. 下. 16. 間. 9 下間. 下間. 7. 下. 15. 下. 下. 於. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," pp. 89-90, p. 93. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," p. 89. David Lektzian & Mark Souva, "An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success," Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 6 (2007): p. 849. 16.

(22) 增. 增. 樂. 於. Navin Bapat間. and Imposition of Economic Sanctions意下間. 立. 於18 Adrian Ang. 政下治大次. ‧ 國. 下間. 間. 下. n. 下. Ch. y. 下. Irfan Nooruddin. e n g間c h i U 於21. sit. io. al. 下. er. Nat. 間. 於20 Jaleh Dashti-Gibson. 間. ‧. 於19 Lektzian樂Mark Souva樂Susan Allen. 間. 間. 學. ⽂perception意次於. TIES⽂Threat. 下. 得. 下. 下. 於. v ni. 間間增. Morgan 間. 18 19 20. 21. Navin A. Bapat and Clifton T. Morgan, "Multilateral Versus Unilateral Sanctions Reconsidered: A Test Using New Data," International Studies Quarterly 53, no. 4 (2009): p. 1090. Adrian U-Jin Ang and Dursun Peksen, "When Do Economic Sanctions Work? Asymmetric Perceptions, Issue Salience, and Outcomes," Political Research Quarterly 60, no. 1 (2007): p. 143. Souva, "An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success," p. 866; Susan Hannah Allen, "Political Institutions and Constrained Response to Economic Sanctions," Foreign Policy Analysis 31, no. 2 (2008): p. 266; Anne Miers and Clifton T. Morgan, "Multilateral Sanctions and Foreign Policy Success: Can Too Many Cooks Spoil the Broth?," International Interactions 28, no. 2 (2002): p. 129. Jaleh Dashti-Gibson, Patricia Davis, and Benjamin Radcliff, "On the Determinants of the Success of Economic Sanctions: An Empirical Analysis," American Journal of Political Science 41, no. 2 (1997): p. 616; Irfan Nooruddin, "Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy," International Interactions 28, no. 1 (2002): p. 63. 17.

(23) 間. 間得. 間. 下. 間. 於22. 下. 於. 間. 間. 間. 間. 於. 下下. 間. 下. 於. 間. Nat 間. 能. 間. Ch. 22 23 24. 間間增下. 間. 下. v ni. Morgan. 間下. sit. e n g c下間 hi U. 於24. 下. 於23 Elena Mclean 於. n. a下l. ⾃⽂winning. y. 間. io. 下. 於. er. 下間. 樂增. 間. ‧. coalition意間下. 下. 學. Lektzian. 增. 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 於. 間. 間. 下下. 增下. Navin A. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," ibid.39 (2013): pp. 89-90, p. 93. Souva, "An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success," p. 863. Elena V. McLean and Taehee Whang, "Friends or Foes? Major Trading Partners and the Success of Economic Sanctions," International Studies Quarterly 52, no. 2 (2010): pp. 440-441. 18.

(24) 間. 下間. 間. 下. 立. 增. y 間. al. n. 下. 於28. Ch. 26. 27 28. 29 30. engchi. 間Chao Jing. 間29 Morgan. sit. io. 於27. 下. 於26 Dashti-Gibson. 下. 下. 間. ‧. 間下. Nat. 間. 於. 下間. ⽂GNP意. 下. 學. 於. 樂增政治大. 增. ‧ 國. 間. 25. 下. 於. 間. 30. 間. er. 下. 下. 於25. 增. 下. 間增. i U n下. v. GNP. 下. 間下. 下於間得. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," pp. 89-90, p. 93. Cooper Drury, "Revisiting Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 4 (1998): p. 849; Allen, "Political Institutions and Constrained Response to Economic Sanctions," p. 265; San Ling Lam, "Economic Sanctions and and the Success of Foreign Policy Goals: A Critical Evaluation," Japan and the World Economy 2, no. 3 (1990): p. 245. Dashti-Gibson, Davis, and Radcliff, "On the Determinants of the Success of Economic Sanctions: An Empirical Analysis," p. 612. Chao Jing, William H. Kaempfer, and Anton D. Lowenberg, "Instrument Choice and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 5 (2003): p. 532. Jing, Kaempfer, and Lowenberg, "Instrument Choice and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," pp. 531-532. McLean and Whang, "Friends or Foes? Major Trading Partners and the Success of Economic Sanctions," p. 441; Drury, "Revisiting Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," p. 508. 19.

(25) 下. 於增. 下. 下. 間. 於31. 間. 間. 下. 下. 於. 下. 間. 下樂增. 下間. 下. ‧ 國. 於Baldwin. 間. ‧. 間. 下⽂smart. 下增. 學. 下於32 Daniel Drezner. Nat io. 於. 間. ⽂transaction costs意33. n. al. sit. y. 間. 於. 間. er. 增. 下. 增⽂positive 治 sanctions意樂增政大. 間. 立. sanction意樂增. 間. Ch. 下. 得. engchi. i n U. v. 下. ⽂international regime意間. 間. 間. 31 32 33. ⽂future conflict expectation意間. 下. 於34. Morgan. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," pp. 89-90, p. 93. David A. Baldwin, "The Power of Positive Sanctions," World Politics 24, no. 1 (1971): p. 23. ⽂transaction costs意樂. 34. 於. 間. 間間. 每. 於. 於. Daniel W. Drezner, "The Trouble with Carrots: Transaction Costs, Conflict Expectations, and Economic Inducements," Security Studies 9, no. 1-2 (1999): pp. 216-217. 20.

(26) 間增. 下. 間. 間. 下. 下. 下. 間. 下間. 下. 於. 間下. 36. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 間. ⽂micro-foundation意. io. ⽂cost-benefit calculus意樂37. n. Ch. 想. i n U. e n g c h i於. 下. 36. 37. 於. 下. 間. 間下. 下. 間間. Drezner. 間. 下. 間. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," pp. 89-90, p. 93. Dashti-Gibson, Davis, and Radcliff, "On the Determinants of the Success of Economic Sanctions: An Empirical Analysis," pp. 613-614; Daniel W. Drezner, "Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice," International Studies Review 13, no. 1 (2011): p. 96. 下. 間間. 38. v. 想. 得. 35. y. 下. sit. 間. al. 樂. 於38. 下. er. Nat. 於. 間. ‧. 間樂. ⽂unitary actor意間. 學. 得. Jonathan Kirshner. 下. 於35. 下. 下於. 下. Lam, "Economic Sanctions and. and the Success of Foreign Policy Goals: A Critical Evaluation," p. 260. Jonathan Kirshner, "The microfoundations of economic sanctions," Security Studies 6, no. 3 (1997): p. 42. 21.

(27) 下. 樂. ⽂regime change意樂. 下. 下. 樂樂下. 下於39 William Lowenberg. 下. 間於40. 立. 間. 下. ‧ 國. 下. 間. 下. n. al. 間. er. io. 樂. Ch. Allen. 39 40 41 42 43 44. v. 於44 Dashti-Gibson 下. 下. 於 43 A.. 間下. 間間. i n 下 U. engchi. 下. Cooper Drury. sit. y. Nat 42. 樂. HSE⽂Hufbauer, Schott, and Elliot意. 樂. 間. 於41. ‧. 於San Ling Lam 下. 下. 學. 下得. 間. Morgan 政治大. 間. 間下. 下. 下. Drezner, "Sanctions Sometimes Smart: Targeted Sanctions in Theory and Practice," p. 102. William H. Kaempfer and Anton D. Lowenberg, "The Theory of International Economic Sanctions: A Public Choice Approach," The American Economic Review 78, no. 4 (1988): p. 792. Bapat et al., "Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data," pp. 89-90, p. 93. Lam, "Economic Sanctions and and the Success of Foreign Policy Goals: A Critical Evaluation," p. 244. Allen, "Political Institutions and Constrained Response to Economic Sanctions," p. 266. Drury, "Revisiting Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," p. 507. 22.

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(84) 間. 於. 間. 間. 了 A. 間. B 間. 增. io. ⼤. 間. al. n. 間. B 間. A 於. y. 間. 發. A. ‧. 間. Nat. 發. 間. ⽂strategic goods意間134 B. 於135. B. 於. B. 間B. 學. ‧ 國. 政治大. 立. A. B. sit. 間. A. 於. er. 得. 於. Ch. 發. engchi. i n U. v. 發. 於. 間發. 於. 間. 134. 於. Baldwin. 間於. 間. 於間. 間. 得. 到沒. 於. 間增. 於於. 間. 於 135. 得. 間. 間間. 間. 間發. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft, pp. 214-215.. Edward Mansfield and Brian Pollins, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate (University of Michigan Press, 2003), pp. 12-13; Jeffrey Hart, "Three Approaches to the Measurement of Power in International Relations," International Organization 30, no. 2 (1976): p. 295. 79.

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(86) 20%間發間1994 發. 發. 25% 20%. 33.8%. 19.8%. 立. ‧ 國. 23.9%. io. al. GDP. /. n. 發間發. 18.9%. y. Nat. /. Ch. engchi. GDP. i Un. 間1994. 47%間間. 間1994. v. 發. 4.2. 於發 6%於. 25.8%. 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 3.7% 3.1% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%. 於的. 21.1%. 4.1%. COW Project⽂trading dyads意. 1994. 19.8%. ‧. 0%. 21.4%. 學. 5%. 26.0%. 25.7% 25.2% 23.6% 22.5%. 2.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 2.6%. 29.8% 26.6%. 28.1%. 政治大. 24.6%. 15% 10%. 30.3%. 29.5%. sit. 30%. 1994-2012. er. 35%. 間發. 2006. 於 4.1. 40%. 間. 5%於. 1994. 10%. 發 2005. 81. 2005 的. 間. 間 2006. 25%間. 發. 2005.

(87) 間. 發間發. 25% 間. 發於發. 4.2 60%. 50.4%. 50%. 40.4%. 37.7%. 30%. 10.2%. 10%. 34.6%. 11.7% 8.6%. 0%. 29.6%. 立. 8.0%. 6.9%. 32.3%. 27.7%. 政治大. 7.9%. 9.0%. 29.9% 27.3%. 23.4%. 26.9% 29.4%. 27.6%. 6.9%. 5.5%. 6.2%. 6.1%. 7.7%. 5.4%. /. Nat. 於發間增. 6.1%. 5.4%. y sit. n 間. 1993. 間. al. 間. Ch. 發. er. io. 發. 6.1%. ‧. /. 29.6%. 32.2%. 5.0%. 4.9%. COW Project⽂trading dyads意. 1993. 26.0%. 學. 11.5%. 33.2%. ‧ 國. 20%. 1994-2012. 47.1% 37.7%. 40%. 於. n U eng 發c h i. 發. iv. 發. 間間發. 間. 国. 於發樂增. 樂增發. 間. 於下. 82. 間.

(88) 發. 間. 發. 發. 於發. 4.3. 100% 94.8% 94.3%. 91.9%. 91.1%. 93.7%. 90.6%. 83.0% 82.2% 79.2%. 90.3%. 95.0% 91.0%. 80%. 80.4%. 70%. 77.3%. 76.4% 74.0%. 79.2%. 政治大. 70.7% 72.8%. 立. 60%. 58.0%. ‧ 國. ‧. (%). 1991-1992. Stern, Jonathan P. The Future of Russian Gas and. sit. Nat. Gazprom. 67.3%. 學. 50%. 68.8%. y. 90%. 1991-2012. Balmaceda, Margarita. er. io. Gazprom. New Yotk: Oxford University Press, 2005, p. 110 1993-2009. M. The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania between Domestic. n. al. Ch. i n U. v. Oligarchs and Russian Pressure. University of Toronto Press, 2013, p. 64 2010-2012. engchi. Naftogaz. http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/75/108576/presentation-press-conf-2017-06-06-en.pdf 1991-2010. Balmaceda, Margarita M. The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus,. and Lithuania between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, p. 124 2011-2012. Naftogaz. https://naftogaz-europe.com/article/en/NaturalGasTransitviaUkraine於. 發. 於Hirschman 於136. ⼤. 136. 間. Gazprom Gazprom. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade, p. 33. 83. 間.

(89) 於137 發. 4.4. 間發. Novopskov. 於. 樂. 4.3. 1990. 立. 發. io 2006. 137. al 下. 間間94% 於. 78% 於. n. 間. 發. 2005. Nat. 間2005. 90%. ‧. ‧ 國. 於1993. 間. 間. 學. 90. 樂. 政治大間發. 的. 2000. Brotherhood. Ivano Frankivsk. 發. 間. Ch. 增. er. 於間. 發. Ivano Frankivsk. Northern Lights. Ivano Frankivsk. y. Yelets. Kiev. sit. 於. 間發. engchi. i n U. v. 間. 於. Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, pp. 142-144. 84.

(90) 發. 4.4. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 118, 153; Pirani, Russian and CIS Gas Markets and Their Impact on Europe, p. xxii, xxiii, 94, 272, 317.. 85.

(91) 4.5 90%. 80%. 1991-2012. 82.8%. 79.3%. 77.5% 77.4% 77.6% 78.6%. 70%. 79.3%. 76.9%. 80.8% 81.7%. 76.8%. 74.7%. 80.8%. 80.7%. 84.2%. 78.1% 77.1%. 63.5%. 70.9%. 60% 52.0%. 50%. 75.5%. 60.0%. 政治大. 立. (%). ‧ 國. 學. Naftogaz Ukrainy website(https://naftogaz-europe.com/article/en/ naturalgasconsumption19912016). 4.5. sit al. n 於. er. io. 間. ni Ch 間 U engchi. 於. v. 間. 發於1994. 間Gazprom. ITERA. 15. y. Nat 於. 70%. 開. ‧. 於. 間間. Gazprom 間於於發. 1994 Gazprom. 間. ITERA Ukrgazprom 86. Gazprom樂ITERA. 發.

(92) 間. Ukrgazprom 於. 間1993. 間. Gazprom. Gazprom. 間. 間於. Gazprom間. ITERA. 立. 間於. Gazprom. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. Ch. engchi. 87. i Un. v.

(93) 發. 發. 間. 發. 間增. 樂增. 於. 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 學. ⽂shipper意間. ‧. ⽂whole scale trader意於. 於. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 間. 發. 下. 2006. 間. 於. Ch. 間於. n U e n g增c h i. NAK 間. iv. 增. Gaz Ukrainy 於. 樂. 於. 樂發. 間樂發. 於. 88. 間. 間. 1998. 間間間.

(94) 於間. Ukrgazprom. 1996 於1996. Gazprom 間. Ukrgazprom. 間. 間間. 於. 治政 Ukrgazprom 大. 立. ‧ 國. 會. io. 来覺. 於1998. n. 間樂. Ch. e n gNAK chi. 間. i n U. v. 樂. 樂. 於138. 樂. 1993 Ukrgazprom. 發. Gazprom. 間1992. 138. 間. y. Nat. 間. al. 間. ‧. 間. Ukrgazprom. 来覺. 来覺. 學. 發. 於. sit. 間. er. Ukrgazprom. 於. 間間. Simon Pirani, "Introduction: Political and Economic Factors in the Russian and CIS Gas Trade," in Russian and CIS Gas Markets and Their Impact on Europe, ed. Simon Pirani (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 96; Margarita M. Balmaceda, "Gas, Oil and the Linkages between Domestic and Foreign Policies: The Case of Ukraine," Europe-Asia Studies 50, no. 2 (1998): pp. 270-271. 89.

(95) 樂. 間. 間. 於發. Ukrgazprom. 間. 得. 間在. 得. 在. 間. 於. 間. 微. 樂. 間. 得. 天. 於139. 間. Ukrgazprom. ‧ 國. 學. 1996. 間. 政治得大. Ukrgazprom. 立. 於. io. al. n. 於. 来覺⼜間. sit. Nat 間. 間. ‧. 間. Pavlo Lazarenko間. Ch. 1998. n U i engch 樂. 信. NAK. iv. 樂来覺. Kuchma. NAK 1999. 間. y. 得. 於1994. er. 樂. 會. 1998. 於140. 139. Balmaceda, "Gas, Oil and the Linkages between Domestic and Foreign Policies: The Case of Ukraine," pp. 270-274. 140 Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, 113. 90. 間樂.

(96) 1993. Gazprom. Ukrgazprom. 1994. ITERA. Ukrgazprom. 1995. ITERA. Ukrgazprom. 1996. ITERA. 1997. ITERA. 1998. ITERA. Naftogaz Ukrainy. ITERA. 1999. ITERA. 治 Ukrainy 政 Naftogaz 大. ITERA. 2000. ITERA. Naftogaz Ukrainy. ITERA. 2001. ITERA. Naftogaz Ukrainy. 2002. ITERA. Naftogaz Ukrainy. 2003. ETG⽂Eural Trans Gas意. Gaz Ukrainy. 2004. ETG. 2005. RUE. 2006. RUE. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 ITERA. n. Ch. er. io. al. sit. y. Nat. ITERA. i Un. Gaz Ukrainy. v. i e n gGaz c hUkrainy. UkrGaz-Energo. 4.1. 1993-2006 Pirani, Simon. "Ukraine: A Gas Dependent State." In Russian and CIS Gas Markets and. Their Impact on Europe, edited by Simon Pirani, p. 118, pp. 24-25; Hedlund, Stefan. Putin's Energy Agenda: The Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, pp. 108-109.. 91.

(97) 發. 微. 1994. 間發. ITERA. 於141 Gazprom. Gazprom 間. 間. 發. 間. 發. 間. 間. 政於治間大Gazprom. Gazprom Gazprom 於. 間. sit. n. al. 於Gazprom. er. io. 間. Ch. e n g c間h i. 間. y. 間. Nat. 於. ‧. 間. ‧ 國. 1990. 學. 間. 立. 發. i n U. 2005. v. 間. Gazprom. 於. 間Gazprom 於. 間於Gazprom. 樂發. 間. 間 141 142. 果. 於142. Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 67. Pirani, "Introduction: Political and Economic Factors in the Russian and CIS Gas Trade," p. 8; Hedlund, Putin's Energy Agenda: the Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, p. 108. 92.

(98) 1994. 發. 2003. ⽂independent company意ITERA 間. 於143 1998 間. 間. Gazprom. 間發. Gazprom. io. n. v i n C h Saparmyrat A.U e n g c h i Niyazov 於間. Gazprom. 間. Gazprom. 於. ITERA. 143. Gazprom Gazprom. 於Makarov. Gazprom. ITERA. 於. Gazprom. 間間. 間. sit. Nat Igor Makarov間. 發. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. 樂於. al. 於1994. Gazprom. 樂. 間. ITERA 感. 於治政大. 發. 間. NAK. 間的. ITERA. 立. 90. 90. y. 間. Gazprom. ITERA. 間. ITERA. er. 於. Gazprom. 間. 間. Gazprom. 間 100% Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, pp. 19-20. 93. Gazprom. 於.

(99) 来覺. ITERA. 間. Gazprom. 間. 41. ITERA. 間. 100 BCM⽂billion cubic meters意間. 主. 間. 41 BCM 於ITERA. 政於治大 1998. 立. ‧ 國 n. Ch. ITERA. engchi. 間. 會 Miller. y. sit. i n U 於. Gazprom 間. Gazprom. Gazprom. er. io. 過間. al. Gazprom 間. Gazprom. 發. 於. Gazprom. 間ITERA. 發. ‧. Nat. ITERA. 1999. 學. 間. Gazprom 於144. 1994. 間. ITERA. Gazprom. 間. Gazprom. 於145 Gazprom. 144. v. 間. 發. ITERA. Gazprom 學. Gazprom 1990. 間. ITERA ITERA. 於. Goldman, Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia, p. 104, 106; Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 22, 69; Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, pp. 120-121. 145 Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, pp. 74-75. 94.

(100) 於. Gazprom Vyakhirev. 樂. Chernomyrdin. 於Miller. 間間. Gazprom. 間ITERA 感於. 機. 立. ‧ 國. 政治大. Gazprom. 間. 種. y. n. ITERA. C h間 engchi 間. NAK Gazprom 57%間. 間. iv n U ITERA 於. Gazprom. 果. sit. io. al. 間. 146. 間. ‧. ITERA. Nat Gazprom. ITERA. 發. 於146. ETG. 於. 間. 2003. Gazprom. ETG. 2003. ITERA. 2004 Dmitry Firtash. Goldman, Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia, pp. 104-105; Hedlund, Putin's Energy Agenda: the Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, pp. 105-106. 95. 間. 學. 間. 来覺. 間ITERA. Vyakhirev. 間Miller. 52%. 間ITERA. er. 微. 間Gazprom. 来覺. 来. Vyakhirev. 中. Miller.

(101) 於ETG Boiko. ITERA 間Kuchma. NAK. ETG. 間. Kuchma. 間. ITERA. ⼦. ETG. RUE. ETG於ETG 間. NAK 得. 間. ‧ 國. 間. y. Nat. 間2004. Yushchenko. sit. io. 能發. RUE. 間發. a l ⾃間 v發 i n Ch engchi U. n. 間. 於. er. 於148. Gazprom. ‧. 間. 發. 2003. 學. ETG. 於147. NAK 得. 政治大⽂2004 意間 RUE ETG 立. 間. 果. Gazprom. Yurii. ITERA. 間. 間. 於. 2002. 發. 間ETG. Gazprom 間. Gazprom 間. 間. 間Gazprom. 間 147. Pirani, "Introduction: Political and Economic Factors in the Russian and CIS Gas Trade," p. 97; Vladmir Milov, "Ups and downs of the Russia: Turkmenistan relationship," in Russian Energy Security and Foreign Policy, ed. A. and Gomart Dellecker, T. (Taylor & Francis, 2011), p. 103; Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, p. 101, 121. 148 Hedlund, Putin's Energy Agenda: the Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, pp. 109-110. 96.

(102) 於149. 間. 發. 發. 間. 於間. Gazprom. 2006. 下. 發. 發. 間NAK. 於. RUE. Nat. Gazprom. al. 50%間. Ch. 於151 Gazprom. 間. 間發. sit. 果. n. 果. 間. er. io 間. Gazprom. 於150. Firtash RUE. UkrGaz-. y. Gazprom. 間. ‧. ‧ 國. ETG. 間. 2006. 學. Gazprom 得. RUE. 政治大. 立. 發. 間 UkrGaz-Energo. 間2007 Energo. 於. engchi. i n U. v. 間. 間果. Firtash. 45. RUE間Gazprom. 於. 149. Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, pp. 93-96; Pirani, "Ukraine: a gas dependent state," p. 99; Hedlund, Putin's Energy Agenda: the Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, p. 106. 150 Pirani, "Ukraine: a gas dependent state," p. 97, pp. 99-101; Hedlund, Putin's Energy Agenda: the Contradictions of Russia's Resource Wealth, p. 110. 151 Goldman, Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia, pp. 145-146. 97.

(103) 樂不. 這是. 間. 於. 間樂樂發. ⽂. 樂發 4.4意於. 間. 政間治大. 立這是. sit. y. 間間. n. al. er. io. 間. 於. 20%間. ‧. 樂. 於1996. 這是. Nat. 發. 間. 學. 間. 2007. ‧ 國. 間. Ch. i n U. v. e n g c h80i BCM間. 發. 於1990 間時. 回間. 間. 間. 間1990. 152. 於152. 於 73%⽂. 發. "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," in Russian and CIS Gas Markets and Their Impact on Europe, ed. Simon Pirani (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 272, pp. 288-290. 98.

(104) 32%意於間. 間. 說. 間. 20 BCM 於153. 間. 間. 樂. 樂發. 間. 間. 樂發. 發間. 微. 治政間大. ‧ 國. 1993. 26.5 BCM間. 1998. 間 55.7 BCM間1994. 學. 於90. 立. 於. Gazprom. 還. 2.4 BCM間2000. ‧. 間. n 1989. Ch. e n g間c h i. 155. v. 於155. 間於. 154. i n U. 間. 2006. 間. 153. 間. er. io. al. sit. y. Nat. 於154 90 間. 30 BCM. "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," p. 290. "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," p. 275. "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," p. 292. 99.

(105) 4.6. 1991-2006. 政治大. 立. "Turkmenistan: An Exporter in Transition." Chap. 9 In Russian and CIS Gas Markets and. ITERA. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Their Impact on Europe, edited by Simon Pirani, p. 275, 286.. 11. Turkmenrosgaz. a50% l C h. n. 4%樂. 間 ITERA 1997. 3. i n U. Gazprom. v. 間⽂barter意間Gazprom. 間. 於. ITERA. Turkmenrosgaz於 36. 156. 於. engchi. Gazprom. 間. 46%樂ITERA. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 間Gazprom. 發 20 BCM. 1999 發. 間. 2000. 間. 發. 於156 . Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, pp. 171-172; Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 72. 100.

(106) 1999. 於. 2000 間. 間Gazprom. 發. 間. 間Gazprom. 間發. 於. 間Gazprom. 的. 發. 間種. 於157. 立. 間. 信. 間Gazprom 2000 政治大. ‧ 國間. 間. n. al. 發. er. 間. io. 1999. sit. y. Nat. 於. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 間發. 2000 間. 微. 間. 信. 於1999 ⽔. 間Gazprom 於2000. 間發. 157. 間. ‧. 於間Gazprom. 信. 發. 學. 於. 在. 間Gazprom樂ITERA 30. Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, p. 65, 77. 101. 50.

(107) 間. BCM間於. 間. 間發. 間. 於2003. 間. 25. 158. 2004. 60 間. 80 BCM Gazprom. n. a l 間Gazprom iv n Ch engchi U. 發. 間Gazprom. 間 2005. er. io 間. 6-7 BCM. ‧. 間2006. 2006. 於159. 於. 4-6 BCM 2005. Nat. 於. 間Gazprom. 50% 間50% 政治大. 間發. 10 BCM. 2006. 學. 2006. ‧ 國. 立. 2004. y. 間. 44. 2003. 間. sit. 發. 4. 間. 發. 間於160. ITERA. ETG. 間. 158. 於. 樂. 樂. 樂. 發. 於 159. Nygren, The Rebuilding of Greater Russia: Putin's Foreign Policy Towards the CIS Countries, p. 205; Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 73. 160 "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," p. 290; Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 74, pp. 76-77. 102.

(108) 於2003. 間Gazprom. 於. 間2000. 間. 8 間. 20 BCM 於. 2001 間. 42 Kuchma. 立 10. 於2000. 樂50%. 50%. 著. 間. ITERA 2001. 間. sit. y. 700. n. er. io. al. C h間 engchi. i n U. 161. 2003. 2005. 間. 4. 發. 2001. 42. 2002 間. 於161 於. v. 於. 間. 250 BCM. 能間. 30 BCM間. ‧. ‧ 國. 5 BCM. Nat. 2006. 於. 間政治大. 間. 5. 2010. 學. 40 於. 50 BCM. 2005 發 25. 間. Stern, The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom, p. 75; "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," p. 289. 103.

(109) 間發. 間. 發. 發. 間. 間. 2005. 間發. 2005. 立. 間. 政2006 治大. ‧ 國. 於. ‧. 間Gazprom. ITETA. sit. io. al. n. 會. ITERA. 間. iv. n U engchi Gazprom 間. 間. Ch. 發間. Miller. 2004. 信. 来. ITERA 於. 樂. 在. 於2000 Gazprom. ITERA間. Yanukovych. 於. 2006. Nat. Gazprom. 2006. 發. 2006. 2006. 間2003. 1993. 學. 發. 於. 2005. 於. y. 間. 發. er. 間. 發. 間. 104. 後發. 間. 間發.

(110) 發 RUE. 於162 2005. 間. 發. 立. 能. 於. 間. 間 2005. 發. 發. 之. 發. 樂. 信. 政治大. 間. 於. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 y sit. n. er. io. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Simon Pirani, "Ukraine: a gas dependent state," ibid., p. 93; "Turkmenistan: an exporter in transition," ibid., pp. 289-290. 105. 樂. 間發. Nat. 162. 50%. 間. ETG 間. 於2000. Gazprom.

(111) 下發. 1993. 間. 2006. 發. 下. 於發間. 間. 1993. ‧ 國. 發. 間發於. y. sit. io. Ch. engchi. 於1991. 間. 163. 9.3. i n U 發. Vitold Shokin. 1992. 下. 1993. n. al. 發. 2. 間發. ‧. 間. 於2006. Nat. 去. 立. 學. 間. 下. 間. 發 1993 政治大. 間間. 發. er. 於. 發 1993. 間1992. 間 0.25. 49.8. 於. v. 於163. 的. 間發. Balmaceda, The Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania Between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure, p. 104. 106.

(112) 間 1993. Massandra. 1993. 發. 於於. 間於1993. Sevastopol 間. 發. Kuchma. Chernomyrdin. 間. 立. 於發. 3. sit. y. n. al. 間Massandra 間. 間. Ch. engchi. i n U. 於. v. 於165 Gazprom. 間間. 於發. er. 間. io. Kravchuk. 1994. 間. Sevastopol. Nat. 機. 間. ‧. 樂. 60 情. 學. 25%. 1994. 9 Massandra 政治大. 間Gazprom. ‧ 國. 於164. 166. 8. 樂. 發. 於間發. currency意樂發. 間. 164. ⽂hard Gazprom. Pifer, The Trilateral Process: The United States, Ukraine, Russia and Nuclear Weapons, 6, p. 15. Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, p. 200. 166 Margarita M. Balmaceda, Energy Dependency, Politics and Corruption in the Former Soviet Union: Russia's Power, Oligarchs' Profits and Ukraine's Missing Energy Policy, 1995-2006, vol. 37, BASEES Routledge Series on Russian and East European Studies (The United States: Routledge, 2008), p. 26; D'Anieri, Economic Interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian Relations, p. 79.. 165. 107.

(113) 於間. 4. 間. Landyk. Gazprom. 於167. Ukrhazprom 間. 於168 發. 30%. 間間. 1993 間 7. 1994 間. Kuchma. ‧ 國. 間. 樂Sevastopol. 活. 1993 樂. 間. 發. 下. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 於. 樂. 於169 說. ‧. 發. 間. 政治發大. 學. 發. 立. 發. Ch. engchi. 間. 間間. i n U. v. 於發. 間. 間間. 發. 間. 167. 於170. D'Anieri, Economic Interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian Relations, pp. 81-82. Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations, pp. 205-206. 169 D'Anieri, Economic Interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian Relations, p. 92. 170 Morrison, "Pereyaslav and after: The Russian-Ukrainian Relationship," p. 697; D'Anieri, Economic Interdependence in Ukrainian-Russian Relations, p. 149. 168. 108.