Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
42 © 2004 3
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
44 © 2004 3
Robert Michels
1962:342-56 the iron law of oligarchy
Michels
Michels
Michels
institutionalization
1996 Chu and Lin, 1996; Mainwaring and Scully, 1995:4-5; Dawisha, 1997:40-65
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
46 © 2004 3 1977 1977 1986 1986 1994 1994 2001:93-97 1977 1977 1986 1986 1996 1996 1977 1949 1977 19491977 1986 1970 1977 1977 1977 1978 1960 9 4 1989:1-82
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
48 © 2004 3 1999:185-86 1986 1972 1990 1986 1996 1991 3 8 8 % 1977:60 1991 1977:95-1021991 1992 1996 1996 1996 1996 1997 2000 1992
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
50 © 2004 3
30%
35% 25%
1990
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
52 © 2004 3
2003 1. 2. 3. 4. 2003
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
54 © 2004 3 2001:171-72 1977 1980 1986 1986 1990 2001:174-75 2000 20011995
1997
2001:182-86
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
56 © 2004 3 1 2 3 4 1992 NSC82-0301-H-004-034 1995 NSC84-2414-H004-053-B2 19981990
2000 6%
1990
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
58 © 2004 3
1995
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 2003 / http://www.kmt.org.tw/AboutUs/Aboutus-2-1.html 2003/12/27 2001 2003 / http://www.tsu.org.tw/tsa01b.html 2003/12/28 2003 / http:www.dpp.org.tw/history/pub/LIT_6.asp 2003/12/27 1998 23-44 2002 1998 9 1 81-111 1977 1989 1996 251-73 1999 2001 2003 / http://www.pfp.org.tw/platform/assert.php?id=3&pid=02 2003/12/27
Chu, Yun-han and Tse-min Lin (1996). In Tien, Hung-mao (Ed.) Taiwan’s Electoral Politics and
Taiwan Democracy Quarterly
62 ' 2004 3
Mainwaring, Scott and Timothy R. Scully (Eds.), (1995). Building Democratic Institutions: Party
Systems in Latin America. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press.
Michels, Robert (1962). Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of
Modern Democracy. New York: The Free Press.
I-chou Liu
National Chengchi University