中國對柬埔寨的影響：新現實主義的看法 - 政大學術集成

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(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi University. 立. 治政碩士論文大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Master’s Thesis. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 中國對柬埔寨的影響：新現實主義的看法 China’s Influences in Cambodia: The Neorealist Point of View. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Student: Boris Freso, B.C. Advisor: Chien-min Chao, Ph.D.. 中華民國 105 年 8 月.

(2) 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(3) August 2016. 中國對柬埔寨的影響：新現實主義的看法. China’s Influences in Cambodia: The Neorealist Point of View. 研究生：. Boris Freso, B.C.. Chien-min Chao, Ph.D. 政治大. 指導教授：. 學. ‧ 國. 立. 國立政治大學. n. al. 碩士論文. Ch. engchi. er. io. sit. y. ‧. Nat. 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程. i n U. v. A Thesis Submitted to International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies National Chengchi University In partial fulfillment of the Requirement For the degree of Master in China Studies.

(4) 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. I do hereby solemnly declare that this Master thesis is a result of my independent work. All sources of information and bibliographical references used in the thesis have been cited accordingly in the text and in the bibliography. Boris Freso.

(5) ~i~ Acknowledgments First and foremost I would like to express my deepest sense of gratitude to my thesis advisor Professor Chien-min Chao, who assisted me during the course of writing. He offered me new perspectives and showed a deep knowledge of the subject matter. I would also like to express gratitude to my thesis committee members Professor Calvin Lin and Professor Alan Hao Yang, who gave me relevant and valuable remarks during my thesis proposal defense. Also, I would like to honestly thank all professors for the patience they have with me and kind attitude in finding the new date for my thesis defense.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(6) ~ ii ~ Abbreviations: - Association of Chinese in Cambodia - ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement - Asian Development Bank - Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank - Association of Southeast Asian Nations - Build-Operate-Transfer - Economic Land Concessions - Confucius Classroom - Cambodian Chinese Chamber of Commerce - Confucius Institute - Development Assistance Committee - Council for the Development of Cambodia - Greater Mekong Sub-region - Government of Cambodia - Energy Information Administration - Foreign Direct Investment - Free Trade Agreement - International Court of Justice - International Monetary Fund - Japanese International Cooperation Agency - Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia - Lower Mekong Region - Lower Sesan II - Memorandum of Understanding - Mekong River Commission - Non Government Organizations - One Belt One Road - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Outward Foreign Direct Investment - People’s Republic of China - Chinese Yuan - Southeast Asia - South China Sea - State-owned Enterprises - United Nations Development Program - World Bank - World Trade Organization. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. ACC ACFTA ADB AIIB ASEAN BOT ELC CC CCCC CI DAC DOC GMS GOC EIA FDI FTA ICJ IMF JICA LMC LMR LS2 MOU MRC NGO OBOR OECD OFDI PRC RMB SEA SCS SOE UNDP WB WTO. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(7) ~ iii ~. List of Figures:. Figure 1: Map of Greater Mekong Sub-region ........................................................................................... viii Figure 2 Framework .................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3: China's share in total trade in goods of Cambodia (%) ................................................................ 22 Figure 4: Trade surplus with Cambodia over year (US$ millions) ............................................................... 24 Figure 5: Number of visitors to Cambodia for purpose of business (number of visitors, share of visitors with business motives) ............................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 6: Share of Infrastructure Projects in Cambodia (%) ....................................................................... 33 Figure 7: Flows of ODA to Cambodia by year of approval (US$ millions) .................................................. 35 Figure 8: Share of Cambodia's actual amount of unpaid debt by creditors (%) ......................................... 36 Source: ASEAN Investment Report 2015 (10). Figure 9: Chinese OFDI in GMS region over time (US$ millions) ....................................................................................................................................................... 40 Figure 10: Share of all China’s temporary labor migrants among GMS 2011-2014 (%) ............................. 44 Figure 11: CI budget over time (US$ thousands) ........................................................................................ 49 Figure 12: ELC by ownership in 2012 (Ha) .................................................................................................. 54. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 sit. y. Nat. List of Tables:. 政治大. n. al. er. io. Table 1: Framework of Theory of Influence ............................................................................................... 13 Table 2: Number of Chinese Visitors in GMS (number of visitors in thousands)........................................ 26 Table 3: Aid from DAC donors and China.................................................................................................... 29 Table 4: ODA to Cambodia by source in 2000 -2016 (total budget in US$ millions) .................................. 31 Table 5: Top 10 biggest projects in transportation (Disbursement) ........................................................... 33 Table 6: The top 10 investors in Cambodia (US$ millions) ......................................................................... 40 Table 7: Distribution of Ethnicity in population of Cambodia in 2004-2013 (%) ........................................ 43 Table 8: China’s Education Aid Expenses 2009-2012 (US$ million) ............................................................ 47 Table 9: Education indicators in GMS region (units in table) ..................................................................... 48 Table 10: Corruption Index in GMS countries and Rule of Law score comparison .................................... 52 Table 11: China Strategic Partnership Diplomacy and China's interests in Cambodia ............................... 60 Table 12: Mekong River drainage share by countries (sq. km, %) .............................................................. 66 Table 13: BOT hydropower projects in Cambodia in operation and under construction .......................... 69. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(8) ~ iv ~. Table of Contents. Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................................... i Abbreviations: ............................................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures: .............................................................................................................................................. iii List of Tables: .............................................................................................................................................. iii Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ vi Key Words: ................................................................................................................................................... vi 摘要: ........................................................................................................................................................... vii. 政治大 Chapter one Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 立 1.2. Hypothesis: ........................................................................................................................................ 4 關鍵詞: ....................................................................................................................................................... vii. ‧ 國. 學. 1.3. Research questions: ............................................................................................................................ 4 Chapter Two Theoretical Framework .......................................................................................................... 5. ‧. 2.1. Relevant Theories: ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1.1. China’s strategy – Peaceful Rise 2.0. .......................................................................................... 5. sit. y. Nat. 2.1.2. Tools ........................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.3. Introduction to Neorealism ......................................................................................................... 8. io. al. er. 2.1.4. Goh............................................................................................................................................ 12. n. iv n C hengchi U 2.2.1. Thesis Outline ........................................................................................................................... 17. 2.2. Methodology: ................................................................................................................................... 15 2.3. Literature Review............................................................................................................................. 18 2.4. Thesis Limits:................................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter Three China’s Strategies to Project its Power .............................................................................. 21 3.1. Chinese Economic Statecraft ........................................................................................................... 21 3.1.1. Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 22 3.1.2. Tourism ..................................................................................................................................... 25 3.1.3. Chinese Foreign Assistance ....................................................................................................... 27 3.1.4. Public Debt ................................................................................................................................ 35 3.1.5. Outward Foreign Direct Investments........................................................................................ 36 3.2. Territorialization .............................................................................................................................. 41.

(9) ~v~. 3.2.1. Migration................................................................................................................................... 42 3.2.2. Education .................................................................................................................................. 46 3.2.3. Land Concessions ...................................................................................................................... 50 3.2.3. Diplomacy ................................................................................................................................. 55 Chapter Four Effectiveness of China’s strategy: The Case Study of Chinese Hydro-energy Dams Construction in Cambodia .......................................................................................................................... 64 4.1. China’s hydropower strategy: modernization trough hydro-politics .............................................. 64 4.2. Situation in Cambodia ...................................................................................................................... 68 4.3. Discussion on power, influence, and realism................................................................................... 74 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 79. 治政大 Electronic Resources: .............................................................................................................................. 87 立. Bibliography: .............................................................................................................................................. 84. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(10) ~ vi ~. 中華民國 105 年 8 月 August 2016. Abstract The thesis seeks to evaluate China’s influences in Cambodia by relying on the neorealist account. The first goal is to examine the China’s foreign policy of ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’, as the tool of gaining political power. The second target is to find out whether China is capable of transferring such power into actual influence by adopting the theory of influence by Emily Goh. Research on such ability is tested in the case study of China’s involvement in construction of hydro-power facilities in Cambodia. In addition, findings are examined through the optics of several neorealist theories, to find out the relevancy of this discourse on this topic. The results prove the existence of China’s effective leverage on Cambodia, and also the capability to yield this kind of impact from the outcomes of the China’s foreign policy. Also, realist accounts proved their merits; however, also their shortcomings regarding the dynamics of Chinese-Cambodian interaction.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Key Words:. i n U. v. China, Cambodia, Influence, Peaceful Rise 2.0., Goh, Neorealism, Economic Statecraft, Territorialization, Hydro-energy. Ch. engchi.

(11) ~ vii ~. 摘要:. 第一個目標是檢視中國為了增強政治實力而建立對外政策—和平發展計畫 2.0。第二個目標是試圖釐清中國是否可以藉由『Emily Goh』的理論轉化成實質影響。以中國於柬埔寨建設的水力工程為考察目標。除此之外，調查結果是以一些新現實主義的論點來找出兩者之間的相關性。結論證明了中國對柬埔寨確實有相當的影響力，且此樣的外交政策是有效用的。此外，現實主義者也藉此證明了自己的價值；然而，也彰顯了中國與柬埔寨雙方互動的缺點。. 關鍵詞:. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. 中國, 柬埔寨, 影響, 和平發展計畫 2.0, Goh, 新現實主義, 經濟治國綱領, 領域化, 水力能源. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(12) ~ viii ~. Figure 1: Map of Greater Mekong Sub-region. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Source: Available online: https://sovanmonni.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/mekong_region_map.png, [Accessed 31st-Aug-2016 ]..

(13) ~1~ Chapter one Introduction. D. espite the economic slowdown, the world has been continuously foreseeing that China might eventually become another important player, who will pull the strings on global matters. After the British Empire of 19th century, the American hegemony in the 20th, 21st century is supposed to belong to Asia and its emerging markets lead by the Chinese dragon. In fact, the process of China’s rise has already begun. For instance, we could take into account its assertive behavior in South China Sea (SCS), establishing the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), plans to rebuild the Silk Road both on land and sea (strategy also called One Belt One Road) 1, or even IMF approval of RMB to become a new world reserve currency. All of these matters are part of the dynamics, where, according to Beijing, China is retaking its rightful place in the world. To achieve this goal China has adopted a new proactive policy which still promotes the peaceful rise, however, at the same time it has started to demonstrate the increasing China’s influence. 2 This thesis intends to track the road of China’s strategy, and aims to understand the given development from the perspective of one of the most significant theories of International Relations – theory of neorealism. To frame this plan it is necessary to observe all the accompaniments of this course of events. In my research I would like to look into the Chinese active engagement in emerging markets of Southeast Asia region, and observe the effects of such strategy in terms of Beijing’s accumulated influence.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. v. n. Among many reasons why to study China’s presence in South East Asia (SEA), the most tangible one is that China simply needs SEA. In recent decades the situation has proven an enormous Beijing's interest in that region. In fact, with rising economic power, China has been in a certain way present in all of the countries, which belong to SEA. China is heavily reliant on energy, but its own natural resources are not sufficient, therefore it needs to import it. The maritime domain of South China Sea is one of the busiest sea lines of communication, which is among other things also used for shipment of crude oil. According to EIA, China is the largest importer of oil in the world. SEA is also one of the fastest growing regions, which accounts the population of about 620 million. This fact makes it an attractive destination for expansion of its commodities, not to mention the largest free trade zone in the world between China and ASEAN (ACFTA). Hence, naturally it is in China’s geopolitical and national interest to spread its influence upon this area, mainly if we take into account that China is not the only power paying 1. Ch. engchi. i n U. Officially it is the development strategy consisting of Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road, which are supposed to create the transfer corridors in order to connect Asia, Africa and Europe by developing and modernizing infrastructure, and also by improving political and economic relations between countries in these regions. 2 So-called China’s ‘Peaceful Rise No 2.0.’, which will be introduced in the next chapter..

(14) ~2~. attention to SEA. The same as China, Japan also expresses serious concerns about the security of its sea lines through the SCS to feed its hunger for natural resources. Likewise, we all know that Japan is always backed by the US, which has also voiced its intentions to rebalance Asia in socalled ‘Asian Pivot’. However, examining the whole region would definitely overcome the boundaries of Master thesis; therefore I tried to find one good case, which would speak for all. The choice was given to Cambodia. It is the special position of Cambodia in the SEA, which has gained my attention. It is the state, which throughout the history has always had problems with its neighbors and often found itself in the clash between Thailand and Vietnam. For instance, the recent border disputes with Thailand over the Preah Vihear temple area actually escalated in 2008 and caused casualties on both sides. 3 Therefore, Cambodia has always had to rely on strong powers such as China in order to secure its sovereignty. On the other hand, closer ties to Beijing are also a double-edged sword. First of all, from historical perspective there is a huge, and perhaps in some way still unhealed wound in Cambodia’s trust to China, because of the Beijing’s support of the Khmer Rouge regime some 40 years ago 4 . That is actually more complicated if we consider the involvement of Vietnam, which helped to overturn the cruel regime against China’s will, but at the same time it did not pull out from the country for another decade. On the top of that, current Cambodian PM – Hun Sen – has been ruling since 1985, as the Vietnamese puppet. However, last two decades have also brought him closer to China’s door thanks to enormous sums of money, which are flowing from Beijing.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. y. Nat. sit. n. al. er. io. Secondly, being dependent on Chinese aid and foreign investments pushes Cambodia into the dangerous relation, where its freedom might be absolutely contained by China. If we borrow some figures collected by Mr. Heng Pheakdey, we can clearly see that the economic involvement of China is tremendous. 5 Based on those numbers China invested USD 9.17 billion between 1994 and 2012 to Cambodia, and in the same year China’s loans and grants, estimating USD 2.7 billion, reached the second place after Japan. Cambodia is one of the poorest countries in the world with terrible freedom, corruption and governance record. It seems that such conditions, for the record, same as in African countries, pose the best requirements for China to enter this area. Some experts are already suspicious that Phnom Penh does not act independently, mainly in ASEAN 6, where serious doubts about the Cambodia’s servility to Beijing have been raised. For example, the ASEAN meeting hosted in Phnom Penh in 2012 was quite controversial. At that time Cambodia refused to support a strong stance against China’s demonstration of power in. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 3 According to International Court of Justice judgment from 1962 the temple belongs to Cambodia, but the surrounding area is still claimed by Thailand. After the conflict in 2008-2011 the ICJ revised the sentence in 2013, where it claims that the territory (except Phnom Trap) also belongs to Cambodia. 4 Maoist regime supported by North Vietnam and China, ruled the country in 1975-1979, which caused life of 2 million people, notably almost the whole intelligence. The relations between these two countries were restored in 1997. 5 Available online from: https://dinmerican.wordpress.com/2015/07/18/cambodia-and-china-chinese-investment-and-aid/. [Accessed:15st-Mar-2016] 6 Cambodia has entered the ASEAN group in 1999..

(15) ~3~. South China Sea (SCS) proposed by Vietnam and Philippines. This situation made other members of this group skeptic about Cambodia’s independent vote. All in all, considering the fact that China is Cambodia’s top foreign investor, a major donor and strategic trading partner, one cannot be so surprised that Cambodia seems to be lured so deeply into China’s cave. Nevertheless, since my main motivation is to investigate the China’s influence on Cambodia’s decision-making from the perspective of neorealism, we also have to look closer to reasons why I decided to study the situation in this particular country. I have chosen these two states mainly in order to examine how smaller countries put up with the pressure of regional power, which is expected to grow even further in the international hierarchy. Cambodia is located on the lower Mekong basin, which flows through the closest periphery, right from the Chinese borders. It is geopolitically very important area, because it connects Indian Ocean to inner China and SCS. China needs to strengthen its presence in this region to protect its military access to those waters, including Gulf of Thailand and Malacca Strait. Moreover, this region has been always important for China historically. During the Chinese empire the former state-structures used to be in a tributary relation under the Chinese influence. Secondly, China needs Cambodia as its opened door towards ASEAN. China has territorial disputes with most of the ASEAN countries, therefore getting somebody, who would support China’s claims and provide a little sabotage within the ASEAN community is beneficial. Last but not least, it is also for China’s sake to invest into development of this region and link it to Yunnan and Guangxi provinces, which are part of the poorer western Chinese region, given their landlocked position. Therefore, there is no wonder that the new reemerging China puts this region as one of its main priority, and Cambodia has become a benchmark of China’s foreign strategy.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. io. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. This process has already begun in the previous decade, when China has kicked off its Peaceful Development Strategy. The goal of this thesis is to look into the efficiency of soft tools of China’s influence, which are supposed to carry small states back to China’s orbit. Has China gained enough political clout to shape the direction of Cambodia? The crucial effort of this paper will lie in the quest of finding the correlation between China and Cambodia mutual development relations as the result of Beijing’s foreign policies in terms of its bilateral and multilateral behavior. Also, it aims to prove that China’s engagement in this area carries side interests and has serious implications on smaller states like Cambodia. The main premise of this work is that by building of infrastructure, providing the necessary aid, and by increasing the trade relations China accumulates its political power in Cambodia. Main reason to think that this kind of engagement is in line with the Beijing's strategy is that majority of any constructing projects coming from China are persuaded by state-lead enterprises, or private companies, which have direct connection to the top Chinese leadership. Therefore, we could address it as the outwards development with Chinese characteristics. The second aim of this thesis is to examine, whether China’s power has raised enough to achieve the real influence and shape Cambodia’s decisions. All in all, if we intend to discuss the China’s foreign policy, according to Professor Goldstain (In. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(16) ~4~. Hanami 2003, 4), “[…] the question is not ‘whether’ neorealism explains China’s foreign policy, but rather ‘how much’.”. 1.2. Hypothesis: The recent Chinese engagement in Cambodia proves the unequal nature of their mutual relation. While China, as a regional power, tries to increase its political influence by adopting its strategy of Peaceful Rise 2.0., Cambodia loses the ground under its feet, and progressively has been lured back on the China’s orbit. Such dynamics is a proof that the Beijing’s policy is successful in accumulating its influence.. 1.3. Research questions:. 立. 政治大. 1. How is China’s strategy projecting its regional power towards Cambodia?. ‧ 國. 學. 2. Does this strategy threaten Cambodia’s security/ sovereignty?. ‧. 3. Is china capable of influencing Cambodia’s preference and behavior?. sit. y. Nat. 4. What are the challenges to China’s ‘Peaceful rise 2.0.’ in Cambodia?. io. n. al. er. 5. Is the Chinese activity on Mekong river part of the Chinese political strategy?. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(17) ~5~. Chapter Two Theoretical Framework. 2.1. Relevant Theories: 2.1.1. China’s strategy – Peaceful Rise 2.0.. I. n order to understand the Beijing’s actions in the given region, one must firstly get familiar with the current strategy of China’s foreign relations. This thesis will work with the strategy introduced by Jian Zhang 7, who tries to address the present shift in China’s foreign policy. This shift could be noticed after Xi Jinping has taken the office. As I stated above, China has obviously adjusted the lower-profile attitude, which was very significant for its interaction with other countries. Before China’s position used to be described as ‘hiding’s one’s’ capabilities and biding one’s time’ (taoguang yanghui). However now it seems that China has accumulated enough political clout to start to demonstrate its national interests and to shape the international politics in order to regain its rightful position. Zhang calls this strategy a new phase of a Peaceful Rise – Peaceful Rise 2.0. The main difference between the two versions lies in the, “[…] more purposeful and even assertive pursuit of China’s national interests whilst vigorously seeking to maintain a peaceful external environment” (6-7). This means that China still promotes the mutual development interaction, because China needs peaceful and stable external environment. However, it also asserts that times, when China would band on a knee under any circumstances are long gone, albeit China’s strategic and economic power has not reached the top level.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. i n U. v. Zhang divides the China’s main objectives into two parts. Firstly, it is the China’s strategy towards USA called a ‘new type of great power relationship’ (xinxing daguo guanxi), which implies that until now the negotiations with the world strongest country lacked any specific tactics of mutual approach. It has always been the US, which has been initiative in the mutual relations. Zhang assumes that in order to assure the new China’s position, it is necessary to draft its own policy towards Washington. In theory, it means that Beijing is aware of the fact that stable mutual cooperation is the main priority in managing the Sino-US relationship. Hence, Beijing will promote the following features in mutual engagement: ‘non-conflict and nonconfrontation’, ‘mutual respect of each other’s different political systems and core interests’, and finally ‘win-win cooperation’ (Yang in Zhang 2015, 14). In fact, this approach is still more in a theoretical level, but what is for sure, by this strategy China definitely seeks for more equal treatment from the US.. 7. engchi. The following chapter is a brief summary of Zhang’s analysis..

(18) ~6~. Second notable objective of the new China’s strategy is the concept called ‘community of a common destiny’ (mingyun gongtongti). The goal of this initiative is to promote the mutual development, and strengthen ties with neighbors and other countries, which support the One China Policy. This is also supposed to be the answer to the current globalized world, where economic interdependency phenomena does not take preferences on the nature of political systems of countries or their level of development. This is not anything new, and we can recognize such China’s position since Hu Jintao leadership. Although Xi Jinping adopted this idea, he has incorporated certain changes, which are mainly visible in facilitation of relations in SEA. According to Xi, it is necessary to build a closer economic community between China and ASEAN in order to achieve a stable and favorable external environment. In other words, Beijing seeks to create a China-centric regional order, where it would play the role of leader. Unlike the previous objective, this one has been already taking shape by establishing initiative of the AIIB and ODOR.. 政治大. The process of regional integration is not as simple, quite contrary; it offers a whole new dynamics into the demonstration of China’s foreign policy. Some scholars even assume that the national-building is actually to the high degree connected with tran-snationalization strategy of Chinese politics, which aims to foster a positive national sentiment towards China on its borders and create a strategic buffer zone of support by nationalizing the periphery areas. Through this policy China “[…] not only effectively influences local (and national) economies of the host countries, but also actively asserts its symbolic and ideological presence in the region” (Santasombat 2015, 5-6). To create such supportive environment China mobilizes the old Chinese communities, which have been living there for centuries, and also it encourages new waves of migration (xin yimin) to these countries. The truth is that such process is much more effective in poor countries of Mekong region, where are signs of insufficient governance, corruption, nepotism, wealth gap, inequality under law and other flaws of a week state. Santasombat (2015, 7) further elaborates that this mechanism consists of free interconnected phases:. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 1. The expansion of trade, investment, and foreign aid 2. Increasing territorialization through large-scale concessions and megaprojects 3. The expansion of Chinese economic and political influence that goes hand in hand with the increasing flows of new Chinese migrants All of these steps can be observed in Cambodia, which will be later supported in the main body of the thesis..

(19) ~7~. 2.1.2. Tools. For the sake of this thesis, the second part of the ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ strategy is crucial. China wants to shape this region as the center, but in order to achieve such strong influence it needs to adopt certain techniques. Firstly, if we are to discuss the effect of China’s techniques in Cambodia, we have to understand the true motives behind attempts to gain the influence. According to Song (In Santasombat 2015, 27), China’s strategy has these general objectives: 1. 2. 3. 4.. Territorial integrity: restore lost territories and maintain current territories Prevent external powers from dominating Asia; increase Chinese influence in the region Encourage economic growth Shape the global order toward Chinese preferences. 政治大. Further, how exactly is China planning to do that, since there are many tools in international relations to achieve one’s goals? Since the last decade Beijing has been adopting the so-called charm strategy, which resembles the famous soft power theory by J. Nye. Nathan and Scobell (2012, 318) observe that soft power is “[the] ability to exert influence beyond what a country wields through the use of force and money because of the appeal of its cultural values, its ideas, and perceived success of its way of doing things.” However, these means are not the only tools for Beijing to regain its historical position in the region. Charm strategy consists of many categories, for instance, according to Kurlantzick 8 , based on China’s experience we firstly recognize the tools of Culture, which includes: new public diplomacy, expansion of Chinese media, scholarships, language programs and mobilizing the Chinese diaspora. Second set of tools are under the category of tools of Business. Those include outward investments, aid, low interests loans and grants.. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. i n U. v. This leads us to another question: How is the charm strategy related to China Peaceful Rise 2.0? In fact, Xi Jinping has not abandoned these techniques; he has just adjusted them so they do not symbolize harmonious relationship as much as it used to be in times of his predecessor. China still tries to win the hearts of its weaker neighbors, but this time it does not say that it will be for free. Even Cambodia’s PM used to calm the situation by saying that the Chinese help comes with no strings attached, which was rather doubtful. Zhang observes that China does not hesitate anymore to emphasize that Chinese help comes with expectation of reciprocity (2015, 10, 14). That means that China still intends to promote the mutual development, but by saying mutual it literally means that there are expectations that the host countries will assure their commitments and support the ‘common destiny’ with Beijing. This shift sheds the whole new light on the nature of relations with countries of Mekong Region. To my understanding, before it was just in a way of suspicions, allegations and predictions of Beijing’s lure-effects; now, even Beijing admits that in order to reassure its rightful position it needs the countries on its orbit to cooperate. 8. Ch. engchi. Look for more in Kurlantzick, J. (2008) China’s Growing Influence in Southeast Asia..

(20) ~8~. Notwithstanding, I will refer to another categorization of China’s tools of strategy, because there are certain important pieces of puzzle missing in Kurlantzick’s definition. I would divide these techniques into two main categories, according to Santasombat procedure mentioned above: china’s economic statecraft, and China’s territorialization. The economic statecraft is defined by China’s money, which is continuously flowing into Cambodia. The category of territoriality includes the process of trans-nationalization, which is spreading the Chinese values in terms of culture, language, diaspora and controlled migration. Additionally, this category will also discuss diplomacy, which will further elaborate on ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ in practice, and also it will tackle the China’s balance between unilateralism, bilateralism and multilateralism. All these subcategories will be further introduced in analytical framework. Collected data will be crucial in order to prove the rising involvement of China in Cambodia’s matters, because the trend will reflect the higher or lower power that China has already gained. To test China’s ability to translate power into influence, I will use the theory of Professor Goh, who introduced her own framework, which studies to what degree a certain country can control another one.. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. 2.1.3. Introduction to Neorealism. ‧. In this thesis I will rely mostly on the theories that help to expand the main source of the school of neo-realism. In my viewpoint, the current international system is based on the material motivation, which is the true essence of the mutual engagement between various actors in the international arena. I am inclining to the ideas of realism, in which state, as the main actor in the international relations, seeks for the power in order to project its influence. Based on the classical realism, the international dynamics does not come from actions of individuals, or other organizations. It is the hunger of states for power which keeps the wheel spinning. Moreover, power is the tool which helps to keep the state’s population secure. With security comes the ability to survive, because, given the premise of realism from the beginning of the 20th century, human nature is rather egocentric and men never act in accordance with moral and ethical priorities. The international system is driven by anarchy, because there is no real authority above states. However, their actions are rational, since they act so as to accumulate more power. Therefore, realism absolutely objects any sources of moral behavior elements in international politics, in contrary to the former school of idealism. 9. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. However, in this work we will pay attention to the more recent theories of realism. The key foundation of the realist revival is the book by the author Kenneth Waltz called Theory of International Politics (1979), which introduces the so-called structural realism, which is an interchangeable term with neorealism. The new way of realism rather builds on premise of international system than on the human nature itself. The core of this theory is the relation 9 The main works of classical realism as the opposition to school of idealism are by the authors of Carl von Clausewitz, Hans Morgenthau, E.H. Carr, and Reinhold Niebuhr. The foundation of realism was built upon works of Niccolo Machiavelli, Thomas Hobbes..

(21) ~9~. between international system and the dominant structure (anarchy), “[…] defined by the interplay between its component units (states seeking survival) which are characterized by particular distributions of power (the capabilities of units)” (Booth 2011, 5). Therefore, other factors that shape the foreign policies are neglected at the expense of the real significance of the international system and its anarchic nature. In other words, the structural constraints of the system are decisive upon the state’s behavior. States have to face the pressure of international system which is self-led by its anarchic structure. Waltz in his work builds upon the classical realism, but also contributes to the theory with whole new motives such as polarity, balancing, alliances, security dilemma relative and absolute gains, and the grand strategy (2011, 17). Similarly, another significant author from the school of realism is Stephan M. Walt with his theory of Balance of Threat. Professor Walt enlarges the discussion of neorealism into its defensive merits, and explains the position of countries that have to carefully react on the threat from a larger and more powerful entity. That is in my opinion very important tool in order to understand the nature of interaction between China, as a regional power, and Cambodia as a small state. In that case, it is important to clarify and define the terms of regional power and a small state. 10 As for the small state, according to Handel (1990, 10), “[The] main characteristic of weak states is, indeed, their lack of power or strength, and hence they are continuously preoccupied with the question of survival.” He further elaborates that the question of size of the state should not be decisive, unlike its relative strength. However, the best criteria for a small state should be the small territory and lack of strength. Small state should be interchangeable with the term of a weak state, because weak states do not possess the necessary capacity to protect, maintain, or further their national interests (11). Furthermore, the definition of a small state is in a negative correlation towards to definition of the powers. That means what does not meet the criteria of a great power, for instance, goes lower in the hierarchy.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. i n U. v. As for the definition of regional power – which at that time was not sufficiently introduced in Handel’s research yet – we will adopt the formulation from the viewpoint of Stefan Schirm. Before, however, it is firstly necessary to distinguish the meaning between ‘middle powers’ and ‘regional powers’, since these two concepts are easily misinterpreted. According to Keohane (1969, 293), “[A] great power is a state whose leaders consider that it can alone exercise a large, perhaps decisive impact on the international system.” The weaker the state is, the less capacity for projecting its influence on the international system it has, and simultaneously the greater impact of the great powers has to be confronted. That means the middle power does not achieve such an influence on the global matters, because it lacks the political, economic and military resources. Despite their position, they are considered to stand right by the side of great powers and super powers, since they have certain abilities to impact the international system on the. engchi. According to distribution of international power hierarchy we recognize super powers, great powers, middle powers, weak states, and mini-states. For further elaboration see more in HANDEL (1990), The Inequality of States: a Study of Small Power in International Relations.. 10.

(22) ~ 10 ~. ground of international institutions.. On the other hand, the ‘regional powers’ concept plays its part on the whole new playground, because it is incorporated in the different context. The determinant in this case is a certain geographic region and interaction between the states within this region. A status of regional power belongs to the state, which is capable of projecting its influence in regional affairs the most in comparison with other states, which geographically belongs to the given region. Likewise, such a state is able to defend its position against any coalition of states in the region. Last but not least, it belongs to a state which, unlike ‘middle power’, might be able to occupy higher ranks on the hierarchic scale in addition to its regional standing (Osterud in Neumann in Nolte 2010, 889). Therefore, regional power also can be at the same time a super power, or a great power, because then we are talking about different level of analysis. For the regional power the main goal is to keep the region in stability, which also goes in line with responsibilities towards this region.. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. To draw the better picture of such power I will introduce the definition by Professor Schirm (In Nolte 2010, 892), who helps us to recognize the regional power in general by combination of power resources with the perception of the regional power by other states. Regional power has: The articulated claim for leadership as rule maker, which is part of the state’s own role definition and is communicated to other actors/states.. •. The material and organizational resources for regional and international power projection (power over resources).. •. Activities to honor the claim of leadership and to mobilize power resources.. •. The recognition and acceptance of leadership status by other actors/states in the region and outside of the region.. •. Real political influence in the region (power over outcomes).. ‧. •. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. To put it simply, “[…] any distinctiveness in small state behavior arises not from any qualitative difference between small states and others, but from the limitations their smallness places upon their capacity to implement significant decisions in foreign policy” (Handle 1990, 38). Though, being weak does not necessarily mean to give up of any attempts to shape the global order, and it is in these countries national interest to adopt such foreign policies, which eventually lead to improvement of their global position..

(23) ~ 11 ~. That is why Professor Walt’s defensive theory of balance of threat is so significant. Mr. Walt studies the reaction of smaller countries on the rising regional power. These countries in order to secure their self-existence either chose to balance this threat, or they cooperate with obedience – so called ‘bandwagonning’. Moreover, Walt brings up new definition of threat to the neorealist discourse. We distinguish between four factors, which determine the level of threat to a certain weaker state. Those factors are aggregate power (total resources of a state like population, technological advance, and military), proximity (nearby states pose a greater threat than states far away), offensive power (large offensive capabilities are more likely to provoke opposition), and offensive intensions (the state’s ambitions might also provoke an alliance). For instance, if we take the case of Cambodia, the nearest threat might be posed by Thailand or Vietnam, since it is clashed between them and the historical experience suggests that Cambodia must be cautious in the future. Hence, it bends to China. Problem with such explanation might be the power capability of China, since according to Walt’s theory; the weaker states should align against the bigger power. Though, China in this case cannot be taken as a weaker state, since it is considered to be the regional power.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Therefore, as for the situation in Asia security, the theory of balancing threat is not sufficient enough. According to Kai, neorealism is often criticized for its intentional neglecting of the role of multilateral institutions. Moreover, the balancing is explained in its hard nature, or military terms. For neorealist institutions represent a secondary phenomenon, out of the main discourse. National security in Asia is the case of “configuration” in the larger regional and global system (2009, 4). To challenge this notion, Kai He introduces the whole new framework called institutional realism. This theory suggests that (9):. io. sit. y. Nat. High economic interdependence makes states choose a new realist balancing strategy – institutional balancing – rather than traditional military alliances to cope with threats or pressures from the system, The distribution of capabilities in the regional system indicates how states conduct institutional balancing, either inclusively or exclusively.. n. al. er. •. •. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. If we look on the case of Sino-Cambodia relations, questions would stand how Cambodia chooses institutions to seek security. The good example is ASEAN, which is the primary choice of countries in this region. It can be understood either as inclusive balancing, where Cambodia deals with the pressure against Thailand and Vietnam, who also are the members, or it can be exclusive where Cambodia deals with the pressure from outer threat, for instance, from China or USA. What is good about this theory is that it takes into account the economic interdependence variable, which reflects the plan for SEA according to China’s strategy. In such set up the hard power is the least possible way of handling security issues, therefore it must seek for influence by adopting different means. According to Kai, the distribution of power and economic interdependence are the main guidelines policies of China in Asia Pacific to gain the influence at.

(24) the expense of other regional powers.. ~ 12 ~. 2.1.4. Goh. In the previous part I have already discussed the Nye’s soft policy, and China’s charm strategy as the tool of gaining influence. However, if we want to approach the distribution of power sufficiently, we might encounter a problem with analyzing the efficiency of China’s influence. E. Goh tries to solve this problem in her research about The Modes of China's Influence: Cases from SEA. In fact, this is a concrete case study, where Ms. Goh tackles the question whether China is, or it is not capable to persuade other nations to take actions against their will. According to Goh, this ability is decisive in measuring the country's influence. This work will help me in the final examination, whether China's influence on Cambodia even exists or not.. 政治大 Professor Goh in her case study analyses the real capabilities of China today. The purpose of 立 this paper is to discuss whether Beijing really possesses sufficient amount of power to get what it 11. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. wants. Firstly, it is necessary to distinguish between the term ‘power’ and ‘influence’. Goh defines power as “[…] resources and latent capability, and influence, defined as the effective exercise of this power” (826). As for the influence, it is divided into three innovative categories: ‘preference multiplier’, which basically means the coherence of preferences among states; ‘persuasion’, which guarantees that preferences will be negotiated; and ‘ability to prevail’, which is actually the real evidence of influence, because with this ability countries can make others to do what they normally would not. Mode of persuasion was further expanded in another work by Goh, where she distinguishes between shaping the decisions by founding or getting influence over institutions – Institutional Shaping; and creating aligned preferences through promotion and emphasis on superior or advanced nature of certain agenda – Discursive Persuasion. So, is China’s political clout efficient enough to shape international relations? Professor Goh observes, that first the levels of influence have been already achieved by China, however, the last one is still lacking. For the purpose of this thesis the most valuable part is the phase of ‘preference multiplier’, which will help us to examine the current capabilities of China to shape the Cambodia’s decision-making.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Naturally, influence has been subject of numerous studies in various scientific approaches. For instance, there are other three commonly known categories: coercion – threat of costly consequences in case of other person disobedience; inducement – enforcement by a reward, and persuasion – make the other person to believe that what we want is for his own good as well (Martin in Goh 2014, 828). At this point Goh criticizes the current academic discourse for focusing just on certain parts of the theory of influence in China’s case, and hence introduces her 11 The following part is a brief summary of GOH, E. (2014), The Modes of China’s Influence: Cases from Southeast Asia..

(25) ~ 13 ~. own analytical framework. As Goh puts it, the goal of this framework is to find the distinction between power, understood as the rising economic resources, and influence, which is supposed to be defined as the effective exercise of power. If we seek to distinct between these two aspects, how can we investigate the efficiency of China’s influence to shape other states’ preference and behavior? Goh aims to answer this question using the following framework: Table 1: Framework of Theory of Influence. Ch. Structural positioning, inducement, persuasion, bargaining. Coercion, inducement, persuasion. y. Mixed. sit. Argumentation , inducement, demonstration, persuasion. engchi U. To ensure that selfinterest and preferences are protected by altering other actors’ preferences and behavior. Ideal. ‧. al. (Structural) intensification, inducement, persuasion. 學. Opposed. To set the agenda, make or change norms to constrain others. n. Ability to Prevail. Mixed/ either. io. Institutional Shaping. Debated/ Undecided. To tell the better story, to assure and convince. Nat. Discursive Persuasion. 立. Aligned. 政治大. To exploit structural position for mutual benefit using policies to generate deliberate collective outcomes. er. Preference Multiplier. Tools of Influence. Aim. ‧ 國. Mode of Influence. Extant Preferen ces. Potential for Goal Attainment. Diffused v i n. Unpredictable. Cases 12. Economic regionalis m. Peaceful Rise 2.0. Trade, tourism, foreign aid, indebtedne ss, OFDI , land concession s. Counterin g the ‘China Threat’ discourse, joint developm ent. Foreign aid, Education, Migration, Strategic Partnership diplomacy. Economic Institution s, United Nations. ACFTA, AIIB, ASEAN, GMS,. South China Sea territorial disputes. Strategic partnership diplomacy, core national interests. Source: adopted from GOH, E (2016), 12 expanded with ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ implications... In order to analyze the accumulated influence in Cambodia from Chinese perspective, we have to examine the target actor’s reactions and decisions in order to find out to what extent this 12 Goh applies her framework on situation in South-China Sea. That part of her research is a good example of correct procedure of the research..

(26) ~ 14 ~. behavior is enforced by China. Secondly, it is necessary to study the range of contexts, which connect divergent and convergent preferences (2014, 830). To put it simply, the best situation for China is, when the goals of all sides are aligned, since then it does not have to step to the more complicated tools of influence. However, to prove that China has accumulated a complete set of powers, it will be necessary to show the ability to force other actors into such actions that absolutely do not go in line with their preferences. According to Goh, this kind of influence is yet not possessed by Beijing. In my opinion China has already reached this level, when it can prevail and change the divergent direction of a certain country, but this country must be weak. For instance, it could be the case of Cambodia’s sabotage in ASEAN meeting against the joint communiqué regarding the South China See. If we agree on the point that ASEAN, as an institution, is crucial for Cambodia’s survival, then one must definitely wonder, what made Cambodia to go against its allies and support the stance of an outer element – China. The huge injection of money from Beijing coming after this meeting only supports the idea that Cambodia had done something, which without China’s pressure wouldn’t have done.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. On the other hand, I agree with Goh, that China’s ability of influence is most of the time in a mode of finding the ‘Multiplier Preference’. That implies taking advantage of structural power (economic means, etc.) to make the other side believe for the common good. That is the room, where I could implement the ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ discourse into the Goh’s framework. As I said, this work will approach the discourse in two categories – economic statecraft and territorialization. These tools bear the signs of influence projection across the whole spectrum of Gog’s study. The former one generates power thanks to the rising mutual economic involvement, which most likely works out as the platform for aligned preferences between wielder and its target. The latter one is more sophisticated, and mainly in weaker countries, besides the first mode of influence, it also reaches out to other categories like persuasion and ability to prevail. To my notion, the case of China’s engagement in Mekong region is a perfect opportunity to study the China’s influencing capabilities, since there it has succeeded to promote the regional integration as the win-win situation. In other words, it has been projecting its influence in a noncompulsive way. For instance, building of the infrastructure helps China to develop its poorer western regions and connects them with new markets, and at the same time it helps to develop these countries as well, because without the solid infrastructure network they will never be able to stand up from the ground of poverty. This goes in line with the Goh’s perspective, which says that Beijing only has to identify the common goals, initiate the action and provide the necessary resources.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(27) ~ 15 ~. 2.2. Methodology:. In order to find the direct coherence between increasing investments and China's influence in Cambodia, the thesis will use the descriptive analysis based on available data, and an explanatory case study to examine China’s effectiveness to influence Cambodia’s decision-making. According to Odell (2004), the case study uses the theory as a guideline for a qualitative research, and then it tests this theory in a specific phenomenon, which it has not been applied before. In this case, it will be the phenomena of China's increasing involvement in Cambodia by projecting its full variety of tools in order to shape the environment. The data will be collected in particular period of time from 2003 to 2015. The year 2003 was chosen mainly as the beginning of the new China's strategy of the Peaceful Rice, which was announced by Zhen Bijian. As I have already mentioned, the new policy of ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ is following the former strategy and adheres it to China’s new position, when it can stand for its national interests.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(28) ~ 16 ~ Figure 2 Framework. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Source: By author.. 政治大. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. The thesis is thus divided into two parts. The first part intends to collect the data of territoriality and economic statecraft, as the means of China’s strategy to project its power on Cambodia. This is the core of the China’s foreign strategy of ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’; so, throughout the text the thesis will further elaborate on this strategy. The data will be collected from the primary and secondary sources from Chinese, Cambodian, ASEAN and other statistics, depending on the availability. Mostly the work will attempt to compare China’s engagement in Cambodia with other GMS countries, in order to emphasize the notable aspects. Usually, this is the point, where most of the studies come to the end, and do not offer any further discussion on correlation between power and influence, or even worse, they mistakenly unify the power with influence. That is why this thesis here adapts the Professor Goh’s framework, who does not think that the factual economic values automatically equal the influence abilities. To put it simply, escalation of economic and diplomatic engagement helps to produce the power. However, to use the power, as the tool to shape the decisions, that is the whole new playground. That is why the work will attempt to find some intersections with Goh’s theory of influences. The data are also crucial for the thesis, so as to draw the whole picture of the grand China’s strategy in Cambodia, where the goal of interdependence and regional integration is significant from the perspective of the ‘Peaceful Raise 2.0.’.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The second part of the thesis consists of the case study, where I will be testing the effectiveness.

(29) ~ 17 ~. of the Goh’s tools of influence in Cambodia. By the simple relation suggesting that with rising structural power the ability to shape the environment rises as well. Such correlation might meet with problems, since for instance; the rising amount of dollar reserves held by China does not bring about the ability to control the USA. However, China adopts different techniques to deal with its stronger counterpart. This is the specific case, where regional power lures the small developing state back into its orbit, which means that here the proposed cohesion might work. To test this hypothesis, I will specifically describe the case of China’s involvement in hydro-power projects development in Cambodia. In my opinion this is the perfect case, where Goh’s framework is useful in order to prove the efficiency of China’s influence. These projects are often encountered with huge negative consequences towards population, living conditions, and natural protection. However, unlike in Myanmar, Cambodia’s leadership ignores the voice of its people and cooperates with China’s state-owned enterprises. Therefore, it will be very informative to observe the Beijing’s ability to create the common goods objective, despite the negative moods among Cambodia’s society.. 立. 2.2.1. Thesis Outline. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. The outline of the thesis will follow the order of framework stated above. The third chapter will introduce the adaptation of China’s strategy of ‘Peacful Raise 2.0.’ and its tools of influence in the region. It will try to find out how China has managed to win the heart of leadership, and why the business conditions pose often as an advantage for entrepreneurs coming from China. I will look into the current situation around the China’s economic statecraft and its strategy of forming the regional economic interdependence. I will explain the forms of China’s aid, trade, and foreign direct investments in Cambodia. Secondly, I will introduce the term of territorialization, as the soft tool of cultural influence, political interaction, and pulsing migration in the context of China’s foreign strategy. In other words, in this chapter I will evaluate the regional integration phase of ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ strategy from theory to practice. The fourth chapter will bring up the construction of dam-infrastructure in Cambodia committed by Chinese firms. I will explain the background of hydropower projects in Mekong basin, the motivation of Beijing to build them, and the positive and negative consequences behind such construction. Last but not least, I will demonstrate the China’s influence efficiency according to Goh’s theory in terms of hydropower energy involvement. In conclusion I will offer the brief summary by addressing the research questions.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(30) ~ 18 ~. 2.3. Literature Review. According to thesis’s guideline, the first part will be the quantitative research conducted on the data of China’s engagement in Cambodia. Primary data will be collected from websites of commonly known global organizations such as OECD, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, UNCTAD. These associations regularly issue publications and analysis of investments, and also track the amounts of ODA to various countries, including Cambodia. Secondly, we will search in the official government statements on strategic partnership provided by official news agencies such as Xinhua. As for Cambodian sources, we will use the published articles and monographs by Council for the Development for Cambodia, Open Development of Cambodia, Cambodian Institute of Cooperation and Peace, and Cooperation Committee of Cambodia. As for the secondary literature, the review is divided into two blocks. First of all, we need to look into the background of China’s rise, its politics, including its strategy in SEA and its motives. Secondly, we will need to approach the comprehensive situation in the region as a whole.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Publication China’s Quiet Rise: Peace Through Integration, edited by Baogang Guo and Chungchian Teng sheds the light on the recent rapidly changing environment of the People’s Republic of China from the backward weak socialist economy towards the regional leader, which has accumulated enough leverage to pull the strings in Asia, and also in the world. For the purpose of this thesis the most interesting chapter of this Book is ‘China`s Rising Military Power and Its Impacts by Tieh-shang Lee. Besides the hard power, it is not a secret that Beijing has been tremendously investing in its image policy, also referred as the soft power. This is discussed in the article by Yu-nu Lu ‘The representation of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games: The Rise of China’s Soft Power.’ The third article in the publication, which deserves our attention is the ‘China’s FTA Negotiations and Its Regional Implication for Asia’ by Wei Lang. The rising popularity of FTA throughout the last decade does not need to be introduced; however, this article tackles the situation around FTA in East and Southeast Asia, discussing the China’s approach.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The topic rising attempts of Beijing’s engagement in Asia in terms of power balance vs. integration is studied in China’s Rise and Regional Integration in East Asia, edited by Yong Wook Lee and Key-young Son. For our research the most essential article in this collection talks about the historical perspective of China’s behavior with its neighbors. This might have serious implications in the present course of events, as it was already mentioned in the introduction. Secondly, the book offers the insight into the undergoing competition between the two hegemons of Asia – China and USA. Although the work aims to focus primarily on East Asia, we believe that understanding the rivalry between these two powers will be also very helpful in studying the Cambodia’s foreign policy. The interaction of these two powers is also the main topic in the China, the United States, and Southeast Asia edited by Evelyn Goh and Sheldon W. Simon. This publication’s main advantage is that it studies the implication of China’s rise on the region of SEA from three different perspectives – Economics, Politics and Military. The book includes.

(31) ~ 19 ~. articles which illustrate the Beijing’s commitments in ASEAN in contrast of the Washington’s Asian Pivot. To better understand the tools of soft power it is necessary to look closer into the mechanisms of Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Foreign Direct Foreign Investments (FDI). Iain Watson from Department of International Development and Cooperation at Ajou University introduces the tool of Foreign Aid in relation with Emerging Powers. Foreign Aid and Emerging Powers will lead us on the right track of general understanding of the agenda of foreign aid in Asia, and its implications on geopolitics. As we know, throughout the last decades the biggest donor title has always belonged to Japan. However, in recent years China has also entered the prestigious club and tries to gain the reputation of charity sponsor. This trend is observed in another publication named A Study of China’s Foreign Aid edited by Yasutami Shimomura and Hideo Ohashi. This book presents a new point of view of China’s ODA as the strategic tool of gaining the influence in Asia, using the recent data which are eventually compared with other donors. Importantly, authors also focus on the Mekong region, which is the core area for this thesis regarding the situation in Cambodia.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. As for the FDI mechanisms, the general picture along with current trends in Asia will be drawn according to study of Expansion of Trade and FDI in Asia, by editors Julien Chaisse and Philippe Gugler. This book firstly approaches new trade perspectives as the strategy of emerging Asian firms. Secondly, it describes initiatives affecting investment in Asia, where it does not omit the rising China’s influence as the result of adopting the FDI strategy. There is also a chapter dedicated to economic impact of investment provisions in Asian Regional Trade Agreements. Moreover, it also provides a closer look on the multilateral rules on trade and investment with regards to Asia. Another compilation paying attention to China’s emergence is called The Rise of China: The Impact on Semi-Periphery and Periphery Countries edited by team of authors Li Xing and Steen F. Christensen. This work broadens the notion about the rapid advancing position of China in its region. Although to book demonstrate the Beijing’s impact in Africa and Latin America, we might be able to adopt these incentives to SEA to certain level, mainly because all of these stories inform about China’s economic might in the global economy.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. The aspect that economies of SEA are mutually interdependent is proposed by Kai He in his research called Institutional Balancing in Asia Pacific. The main goal of this book is to apply the new theory of institutional realism on the Asian environment, bringing up ASEAN and other institutions in order to understand the implications of institutional balancing policy projected by China, Japan and USA. According to author, connections by multilateral organizations prevent the major powers to adopt the harder profile on weaker actors. The same area, however, from different approach is explored in Assessing China's Impact on Poverty in the Greater Mekong Subregion by Hossein Jalilian. Among other discussed issues author also pays attention to benefits of poverty reduction support in the GMS in form of gaining the political leverage in these poor countries. The main protagonist in this case is, not surprisingly, PRC and its capital outlaws detailed in one of the chapters. The third publication attempting to get under the surface.

(32) ~ 20 ~. of situation in GMS is Hydropower Development in the Mekong Region by Nathanial Matthews and Kim Geheb. The book follows the track of political, socio-economic and ecologic consequences of hydropower policies among countries in this region. This book will be essential, since huge parts of China’s investments belong to dam construction projects.. 2.4. Thesis Limits: I estimate that the main limits to be encountered might be in dealing with China’s OFDI in terms of difference between the private capital and state-owned capital. The matter with China’s investment, in my opinion, primarily lies in the grey area between the privatized firms and state controlled business. For instance, the recently announced deals in Central Europe, where supposedly private Chinese firm is bailing out numerous properties has met with controversy, since it was revealed that the top ranks of the firm maintain close connection to the high officials of Chinese military circles. 13 Therefore, if we aim to examine the development investments in Cambodia, determining the extent of state involvement as a part of the complex foreign strategy will not be an easy task. Secondly, it will be the ongoing reform and privatization in China’s market economy transition, which might also cause certain misconception. Last but not least, I might meet with difficulties in availability of sources on China’s foreign aid, since those are still more or less classified. There are sufficient amounts of analysis on official government’s websites, however question is that to what extent these sources are complete, disclosed and translated.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Issue was cover among most of the relevant press in Czech Republic during the official state visit of Chinese president Xi Jinping in Prague. [Online] Available from: http://hlidacipes.org/cefc-stahla-z-webu-informacipotvrzujici-napojeni-sveho-sefa-na-politicke-oddeleni-cinske-armady. [Accessed: 3rd Match 2016] 13.

(33) ~ 21 ~. Chapter Three China’s Strategies to Project its Power. 3.1. Chinese Economic Statecraft. A. ccording to Santosombat (2015, 7), the rising presence of China in the Mekong region has been facilitated mainly through three channels: 1.expansion of trade, investment and aid; 2.increasing territorialization through land concessions, and megaprojects; and 3.the increasing encouragement of temporary migration, and building connections with the Chinese diaspora. In the following paragraphs I will present the data from Cambodia and discuss the first channel – also called the Chinese Economic Statecraft. During the second half of the 20th century China was perceived as the major threat due to the rivalry between eastern and western block, and the political isolation of China caused by Beijing’s international isolation after Tiananmen events. However, the new millennia (the first sparkle of change occurred in 1997 in the wake of the Asian Crisis) 14 has brought about the new peaceful China, promoting the friendship and peaceful neighborhood. Therefore, the main goal of this part is to bring a closer look into this shift and describe the increasing trend of Chinese economic presence in Cambodia which subsequently results in rising power of Beijing in this country. To follow the logical order, at first I will look into the mutual trade and tourism. Further, I will tackle another important tool which helps accumulating the China’s influence in Cambodia – the development foreign assistance, along with consequent public debt. Lastly, I will evaluate on inflows of rising Chinese outward FDI.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. i n U. v. However, before we move on, we should firstly take into account why it is necessary to include economic statecraft as the tool of China’s rising power in the first place. Hideo Ohashi (2013, 98) in his study introduces a so-called ‘Quaternity Model’ of China’s foreign development aid. Such model consists of following elements: trade; investment; assistance, and foreign economic cooperation. Most importantly, these are elements directly or indirectly linked to the China’s foreign strategy, including components, which at the first glance might not belong there. This conception might be also addressed as a state capitalism – “[…] an economic system in which commercial (i.e., for profit) economic activity is undertaken by state” (Santosombat 2015, 26). This manifests that Chinese government has a direct impact over commercial structures and therefore it is capable of adjusting these structures in accordance to its goals and strategies. This is possible within the state, but also in engagement with other countries. In China the government is solely linked with the Party and furthermore with SOE. These strategic companies deploy the economic statecraft; therefore, everything is interconnected. The biggest SOEs then 14. engchi. China rejects to devalue its currency to protect the South Asian countries facing the tremendous economic turmoil..