2.1. Relevant Theories:
2.1.4. Goh
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the expense of other regional powers.
2.1.4. Goh
In the previous part I have already discussed the Nye’s soft policy, and China’s charm strategy as the tool of gaining influence. However, if we want to approach the distribution of power sufficiently, we might encounter a problem with analyzing the efficiency of China’s influence. E.
Goh tries to solve this problem in her research about The Modes of China's Influence: Cases from SEA. In fact, this is a concrete case study, where Ms. Goh tackles the question whether China is, or it is not capable to persuade other nations to take actions against their will.
According to Goh, this ability is decisive in measuring the country's influence. This work will help me in the final examination, whether China's influence on Cambodia even exists or not.
Professor Goh in her case study analyses the real capabilities of China today.11 The purpose of this paper is to discuss whether Beijing really possesses sufficient amount of power to get what it wants. Firstly, it is necessary to distinguish between the term ‘power’ and ‘influence’. Goh defines power as “[…] resources and latent capability, and influence, defined as the effective exercise of this power” (826). As for the influence, it is divided into three innovative categories:
‘preference multiplier’, which basically means the coherence of preferences among states;
‘persuasion’, which guarantees that preferences will be negotiated; and ‘ability to prevail’, which is actually the real evidence of influence, because with this ability countries can make others to do what they normally would not. Mode of persuasion was further expanded in another work by Goh, where she distinguishes between shaping the decisions by founding or getting influence over institutions – Institutional Shaping; and creating aligned preferences through promotion and emphasis on superior or advanced nature of certain agenda – Discursive Persuasion. So, is China’s political clout efficient enough to shape international relations? Professor Goh observes, that first the levels of influence have been already achieved by China, however, the last one is still lacking. For the purpose of this thesis the most valuable part is the phase of ‘preference multiplier’, which will help us to examine the current capabilities of China to shape the Cambodia’s decision-making.
Naturally, influence has been subject of numerous studies in various scientific approaches. For instance, there are other three commonly known categories: coercion – threat of costly consequences in case of other person disobedience; inducement – enforcement by a reward, and persuasion – make the other person to believe that what we want is for his own good as well (Martin in Goh 2014, 828). At this point Goh criticizes the current academic discourse for focusing just on certain parts of the theory of influence in China’s case, and hence introduces her
11 The following part is a brief summary of GOH, E. (2014), The Modes of China’s Influence:
Cases from Southeast Asia.
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own analytical framework. As Goh puts it, the goal of this framework is to find the distinction between power, understood as the rising economic resources, and influence, which is supposed to be defined as the effective exercise of power. If we seek to distinct between these two aspects, how can we investigate the efficiency of China’s influence to shape other states’ preference and behavior? Goh aims to answer this question using the following framework:
Table 1: Framework of Theory of Influence
Mode of
Source: adopted from GOH, E (2016), 12 expanded with ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ implications..
In order to analyze the accumulated influence in Cambodia from Chinese perspective, we have to examine the target actor’s reactions and decisions in order to find out to what extent this
12 Goh applies her framework on situation in South-China Sea. That part of her research is a good example of correct procedure of the research.
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behavior is enforced by China. Secondly, it is necessary to study the range of contexts, which connect divergent and convergent preferences (2014, 830). To put it simply, the best situation for China is, when the goals of all sides are aligned, since then it does not have to step to the more complicated tools of influence. However, to prove that China has accumulated a complete set of powers, it will be necessary to show the ability to force other actors into such actions that absolutely do not go in line with their preferences. According to Goh, this kind of influence is yet not possessed by Beijing. In my opinion China has already reached this level, when it can prevail and change the divergent direction of a certain country, but this country must be weak.
For instance, it could be the case of Cambodia’s sabotage in ASEAN meeting against the joint communiqué regarding the South China See. If we agree on the point that ASEAN, as an institution, is crucial for Cambodia’s survival, then one must definitely wonder, what made Cambodia to go against its allies and support the stance of an outer element – China. The huge injection of money from Beijing coming after this meeting only supports the idea that Cambodia had done something, which without China’s pressure wouldn’t have done.
On the other hand, I agree with Goh, that China’s ability of influence is most of the time in a mode of finding the ‘Multiplier Preference’. That implies taking advantage of structural power (economic means, etc.) to make the other side believe for the common good. That is the room, where I could implement the ‘Peaceful Rise 2.0.’ discourse into the Goh’s framework. As I said, this work will approach the discourse in two categories – economic statecraft and territorialization. These tools bear the signs of influence projection across the whole spectrum of Gog’s study. The former one generates power thanks to the rising mutual economic involvement, which most likely works out as the platform for aligned preferences between wielder and its target. The latter one is more sophisticated, and mainly in weaker countries, besides the first mode of influence, it also reaches out to other categories like persuasion and ability to prevail.
To my notion, the case of China’s engagement in Mekong region is a perfect opportunity to study the China’s influencing capabilities, since there it has succeeded to promote the regional integration as the win-win situation. In other words, it has been projecting its influence in a non-compulsive way. For instance, building of the infrastructure helps China to develop its poorer western regions and connects them with new markets, and at the same time it helps to develop these countries as well, because without the solid infrastructure network they will never be able to stand up from the ground of poverty. This goes in line with the Goh’s perspective, which says that Beijing only has to identify the common goals, initiate the action and provide the necessary resources.
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