中國大陸財政支出與經濟成長--因果關係的驗證

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(8) .MJ~*~ •• 'Dffir~¥~aJ.$*am~n~.~.~$ID.~~~~~ $r~$'~$am~.~~~$~~~~$~boo*~~z~m~~$*Ma~~ ~~j]r~i'lJr~J!~. f:t4~**. '. 0. $00' r .~~~xtf:l J -lfL~$;!:tMaxtf:lf.ii r ~¥~a J f~/fIlTF~ , ftSIJlt.~$;!:tam~ rm~.~~. ~M5j~xt±PiH3. {f!;!'t.l:t;f7IJ~. •• fim.+~D.'ili~.~~§~nj]WM.r~' r~~8"MM xtf:lJ~ttfi~r~¥~aJ.~~M~~D'i'lJJ! ••• ~mm*~tl.~~.~ ~J~~O. g~*B~~~$;!:tMa~~-~~~j]o.m~.~~I. ltf91H± r ~¥~aJ Zm~,~.,. f~-~M€M~ 1.80-2.2. rfia~gxtf:lJ@m~. %zFJ1 ' DJ!*M!1'1a~*~~ii ••. Maxtf:l~§~~A~mm •• ,&~ti •• ~.~~-~Z.oo $~~o. ~ -lilfifM. ( 1953-1957) =liWijIU~1fif M. ( 1958-1965). '=:lilfifWl. ( 1966-1970 ). LmlilfifM. ( 1971-1975 ). lililfifM. ( 1976-1980). 1\lilfifM. ( 1981-1985 ). -l::;lilfifM ( 1986-1990). J\liIfifM ( 1991-1995) . itlilfifWl ( 1996-2000). ..'.N.. r;!'t~8.MMxtf:lJ.rfia~gxtf:lJM~xtf:l~~~ti;!'t~. ~'R:Wtjg1iliji&. ti!l1iM i&1<:tI:I i&1<:tI:I Jt 17IJ Jt 17IJ ~'R:1ij. 1iji&1<:tl:lf~ GDP. ~~it. U\tX. ~1tO. ~1<:tI:I. ~1<:tI:I. 1<:tI:I. .It!!! ( % ). :jI;ffuft fTi&1f 1!!1<:tI:I "tm~li 1<:tI:I. GDP lJS~. R>t~. 1flJSj$). ~** ( %). 73.40. 26.60. 14.17. 4.06. 6.83. 2.40. 0.67. 28.13. 9.34. 52.11. 47.89. 19.23. 4.41. 4.54. 1.92. 0.92. 31.03. 5.30. 61.07. 38.93. 14.53. 2.94. 5.70. 1.40. 1.50. 26.06. 7.44. 54.32. 45.68. 16.84. 3.15. 5.64. 1.47. 2.11. 29.21. 5.94. 49.26. 50.74. 17.20. 4.12. 4.73. 1.52. 1.16. 28.73. 6.62. 50.81. 49.19. 13.04. 4.58. 2.89. 1.80. 0.99. 23.29. 10.82. .fJ 34.66. 65.34. 8.89. 4.16. 1.65. 2.08. 1.33. 18.11. 7.94. 30.26. 69.74. 5.59. 3.44. 1.29. 1.80. 1.32. 13.43. 11.58. 29.93. 70.07. 5.52. 3.89. 1.20. 2.23. 1.50. 14.34. '8.34. fItf~ $~. ~~. tf:ll ~ffi. ~~. ti@ ~l!ICPIiiIIJl:tJXSF. 2002 i'fJ:iE.. I. r fji5(1fJll!)ttfl. J P<I~1!!.M. : fji5(1fJll!AlJ)ttfl •:f;mtIllMMiWJ1itfl •. ~~xtfl·~~~~xtfl·~~xtfl·~~xtfl·~~~xtfl~~~~m~.mMiWJ·.

(9) ~. ~~*~M8~m. AH~. , fXrHI~q:r~i&Jff EI-iL1£= - =0 0. •• ~ ••-~.~.~~m. O~BJ~Mi&~JL\3ttlHrS. 1~. GDP i¥JJ:t. ~. .·Mi&~3tW~GDPi¥J~.~&3~i¥J • • ~.*~fi~~.~~(.B~~·. it6 It. 111£) ,mltfj['. Pli lIZ. IrS. -a fi'iJ. q:r~Mi&~JL\3tW{rS. GDP J:t.~jWj , zp:~ GDP ~.*1ZffiJf§f.t iIiHJ&' Mi&~JL\3tW/GDP i¥J~.w • • ~.*ra'~J.->¥fftE~mt!£~ (trade off) IUH* ' H fJ;J.->¥q:r~Mi&~JL\3tW/GDP i¥JJ:t.tE 7- 8 %zra'lIif1tfi*~ GDP~. *~f-f.,aji¥J7Jd~ /F~ , ttJ:i¥Jt!£~rmf*tEMi&~3tW/GDP w GDP ~.*rdJ. /Fmi1fo 0. ~=. f&. I'. 035 n... n Fl. I. 0.30 0.25. ~. ~~M~*~m~GDPft~. II."" ... - .. -~. ~. fifiPli~m. DfT8"r~ ~m. 0.20. o. Fi!l[fjj~m. 0.15 III t±~nt~ ~m. 0.10. III .~it~ ~m. 0.05 0.00 ~. ~. J h~. ~. ~. h~. ~. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~. ~. ~. ~. ~.. ~. ~. ~ ~ ~. ~.. ~1i~[t.IlifM. B.~~q:r~*~Mi&3tWW• • ~.~i¥Jrm~.,mltm~~~M~w~~M 1~~-:!frm!M. :. ( - ) B.q:r~*~Mi&~JL\3tW • Mi&~3tW • q:r9\!:Mi&3tW • :tt!!1JMi&3tW • • • • ~3tW·tl1t~ft3tW·~&~W3tW.~nttMi&3tWz~.m • •->¥w• • ~.zm.-~'M->¥mi~Mi&3tWfi~ • • ~.~~-~i¥JK~~W'~~~tE q:r~*~ GDP /FD~ft~~.i¥Jm15l~ , JtMi&3tWfrS GDP J:t.W/FiT~~ , llP ~~1fJtMi&~3tW~*~a • • ~.ffiJW~~.'.ffiJ'~@~~i¥J~nttMi&3t W'~~fii&ft~3tW&Jtf&8"MM3tWz~.W/F.1Z~,mM~Mi&3tW- • • aQA~m~8"~~W • • ~.i¥J~n'fi~ • • ~ • • /FAr~.ttJW • • ~§~n,mz~~N~Mi& • • ~./F~*i¥J~~'M~~-:!fr~~o (=) B.q:r~*~Mi&~JL\3tW • Mi&~3tWWGDP~.*i¥Jt!£~rmf* ' m~ fj[/FfRBq:r~*~i¥J GDP~mWMi&3tW~m*/J\ , Mi&3tWfrS GDP i¥J~~ • • ~. J:t.~~tE 7-9 %Zra' , i£§f;t~~~D*Mi&3tWfrS GDP J:t.~jWjllif ' lZmfi~1t~~. ,I . i. I. I. :1. 'I.

(10) tJFm~~JJ!fffft1. GDP ~~~ 0000.. ' Mi5("~ttHr5 GDP J:tj!~fg;~ , ili"6Jfjg~~jiiJilt. A~~~~~-W~~~~~~'ffffM~~ili*§M~~A'~~~*"6J@~M~~. A~. •• '~~ffff.*M~~ili~"6J~~jiiJ'~4.~fi~~~~S~$~*~~·. ~~M~~ili~~~~*~ffiR~W'~&M~~~~~~~*~M,~t1~~~~. ~*~~M~~~~~*~~fi~*~~~o (=)~~r~~~~J~~'~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~.M~~ili~. ~~~~~-'ffff~*.~$~M~~~'-$OO"6J.~~$~~~*'-$oomili ~~~*M~~.~*,~*t1~~M~~ili.ilt~~~~~·~~~~~~~·~ ~~~~&~~§ • • m.~~~~.~~~'~~~~~M.~.~~~~*~~ ~M~~ili~mmW~m,~~.t1.~~*~~~n~mno. (~)~~*~~~~.~~~~~"6J.*M~m~,m~~~~~.*~tl.. ~~~.~~*·A~t1~~m. •• *~~~~'ili~ ••• M~~W~.~'@~. ~L~~~"6J~~m'~~*~M~~ili~GDP~J:t~~~~~'ili~~~~~~ ~~~~~~M~.fiM~~.~~~,~~w~n.~~iltA~~.~Nilin~~. .~.~~.~.~?~.~~~*~~~~*~.~~~t1&.M~~W~~~~. * ' ~ili~~~~ Wagner's Law ~~~.~~~. 0. £~~L~mm~~'.~.~~~~*~Ma.~~~~.~~.~~~.M. .~~'~~.~~* •• ~~*~&.Ma~ili~.~~~~~*R~~~+~~ ~'~m"6J~~~~~~~W~R~~.'~"6J~~~Ma~W~m~~~o*X~ M~-W~@~mmfi~M~~W~m~~.~x~o. ~~. ~~*~M~.~~Wmm~GDPS~.. ~ ~-------------------.-------------~. 20. 1--------. 15. ~-------------. 10 1 - - - - .

(11) t:p ~ *~J!;ti&Jt tI1 ~U!l! ~ ~~-[t;Bli!lRf*tJ9.m. ~n 1jI~ GDP ~*~. ~~. 147. ~~*~M~~~Wm.~GDP~~~. (% ). -----==-------.. 1-1. 6 4 2. o <7. 7-8. 8-9. ~1O. >10. Mi&~/L'. ~. Xtfj/GDP ( % ). , x.1t lm ~Ji. ~~Mft~WW.~~*~~~~~.R~+ft~~~OOBR~'.~.~.* ~m~. (AdolphWagner) ~+ft~*c~' ~~~~~~*, ~~fDB*Mi&~WW~~. ' WJ~ItAtfJH~f~Wr51 ~t±Wri1t$ , ffijt±Wri1t$£,~~3&i&JfJ$jfJ~~* ' ~I~f~W~~~*Wr1l!i&JfJJ)]~~W$jfJ1'IT.* ' iHt~WOOWr1'IT~* ' :£~m ~*~~f*. ~~m~?:tH!IJ. (Wagner's Law) @ Peacock and Wiseman' Peacock and Shaw ~~m~~~~~~L 0. ~~WW.~~*~.R,mwrMi&~A~*~3&~J. ' )HJT~~0. ,~~mWM~~W~*~. ~~*~~M~~A1'IT~*~~'~~~.:~~~.~~~~~.#T'.~~ *1l!GDpm~,mm*~L*,~m$1'.~.#T,m~lliWrL*'~~JfJ~W~ *WrWGDpm~ra'§UJU~~~f*. ; Yi-~~.~Ij~t~~~w:~~~~mHtif$ •. .l:f.~. ,. ~. JfJ~m~m~m$W:M*m~*~~m~~~M~~WZ~.'0mWr~m.~m~ ~~'@~$OOf$~.m~~,m$Wmm~~1'Wr~o/'~JfJM~~. •• ~~~~. ~M~~W*~'~M~~WWr1'lTm~@o 1i+:® /n]li0. a®. o. ~ Jil.Alan. T. Peacock and Jack Wiseman, The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961). Alan T. Peacock and G. K. Shaw, The Economic. Theory of Fiscal Policy (London: G. Allen and Unwin, 1976)..

(12) ----=:::::::-=--. m:f\:~~. Musgrave. --. ~@~Oj:J*~rA'~MfP&~fnii*~~MjI)C;UiFfllT~ftl¥JJJj(~. 0. •• rA'~M.mtl.~~~.~ •• rA'~M~.~' ~Ma~W~tl.~~.~I¥J~M.~; •• rA'~M~A~M~,a~~.R~~~ .rA'$r~l¥Jfm1E ' ~~~.~mjjf~~.~:}' , f§.EE~m~flJi~f9(1¥fJJ:f¥~~~g , ~JlW1 .rA'~M,~.~a~l¥J~m'fJJm~~a~I¥J~~; •• rA'~M~A~~M~'M ~.rA'~MmM'~~$M~m. a~WRW~~~.Dm~~ft.M~·tl.~~W.~~~w,[email protected]~WI¥J. ~ft*RMU~;ttftt!.Ma~WJ]i§I¥J~ft. ' tB.'I*~ GDP l¥J~ft. 0. ~.~X*nOO'~~~~~Ma~WW.~~ft~~I¥J.~x*~m~~'* m~.R~~·*B·~&~.¥~I¥J.~xC~g*fi~.:. ' AbizadehandYousefi~~J¥j~Ma~WW.~~ftl¥JfUH* ' .. mM*mW,·J¥j~a~I¥JMa~Wfi~.~~ft.~ •• C,m~~$Mmm~ft~ ~~~¥~nOO. ~Ma~W~ft~~rr~~.'~~X~.J¥j~a~~~a.~m~~I¥J~~RB~ ~f~@. 0. Kolluri, Panik and Wahab .~~Ma~WW.~~ftl¥J~*~f* ' f.lH'-tL"O --tLtL~~t*I.~(~:~~·~**·~~·.~·B*·.*~·~~) I¥Jltjrfl'1¥~U.fj.. , ~f1~§~ (cointeg:-ation) *trT '. .~f.i'i*~m. ' iittftMffil. 3~Ma~WW.~~ft~~.I¥J~OO~~'~M.MM~~I¥J~fnii'~.~I¥J. •. ~3&Ma~W~ml¥Jf§fi.M®. § ,. ••. 0. ~~.~~I¥J.~~~nOO:.~B~~a~~Ww.~~ft*~~~,~~. j:~m-tLll-- -tLJ\Il9~I¥J.fj.1fE$ GrangerCausality~JE. ' ~~f.i'i5fH~t±l ~.j:~. mGDPWMa~W~~~~~~*~f*' .§.-~am, ~IV5Wftf4x~tbWGDP~. ~~~~~*~~,@pfitl.~W~~.~~*~~'.D~BDH~W~GDP ~~.~tzg*~f*@. 0. .D~~m~~Maa.W.rA'~ftMI¥J~*~~,~m*B-tLll---tLA. tL~I¥J.rA'~ft'~IV5~W·~~IV5~W·Ma~A'Ma~~&.~~~fi~~~. ~.~'D~-@VAAm~'~JEMa~~~.rA'~ft~MI¥J~~~*~~,.mM *~m~IV5~W·~~IV5~W·Ma~A·Ma~~~Maa.~~~w.~~ft' ;ttjjf~JJj(~~~~~.I¥J~m.~*'~3&ra~.I.J. '. r~. ••tl.J. ,a~. ~~.~~~.~'~~.~*~ •• '~.~.~f.i'i.tt~~.3&.~I¥JMaa. it@. ~Jl. Richard A. Musgrave and Peggy B. Musgrave, Public Finance in Theory and Practice (New. York: McGraw-Hili Book Co., 1989); Richard A. Musgrave, The Foundations of Taxation and. Expenditure, Northampton (MA.: Edward Elgar., 2000). it@. S. Abizadeh and Y. Mahmood, • An Empirical Analysis of South Korea's Economic Development and Public Expenditure's Growth,· Journal ofSocia-Economics, vo!' 27 (December 1998), pp. 687 -700.. it@. B. R. Kolluri, M. J. Panik, and M. S. Wahab, "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Countries: Applied Economics, vo!. 32(2000), pp. 1059- 68.. tt~. m~R'. r !JJ~m~J!i&R'u::H:lr.llf1il!Jl!;IHI{Kizliff~ J. iF=J1 • Jr;\O - f1.=. 0. '~.~fU. ( a~t) ,mf1.~m=WI· ~!.l1ltH!l.

(13) *~*~M.~ffi~~~~.-~.~.~.m. j. 0. ~~~~~~~I¥J~.~*~R~@o. i ,. tfL. Hi M. jl¥J. *. .. at. ~~~~~~IM~llifim~ •• ~~tl~I¥J*M~.~*'~~§~~@~~~ ~.:~1!I·B*·m.·~~.'.fi.m~fi'.~I¥JM~mlli'~IM$M~m ~~I¥J~lli (utility-type government expenditure ). " ; ffij~lM$r~~~~~I¥J~lli. ~ ~. ) ,. tljk ~1!1 ~tm )~. ~DP. jftvo ' ~~~~~~~~~flJl¥J~. (productive-typegovernmentexpenditure) ~~~~. •• *$ffij~@o * if * ~ ~ ~ 1M $ r~ ~ lli ~. ~ ~ ~. 7f.: ~ M~ ~ I¥J ~. ' ~ j:J pg ~ ~ ~ (endogenousgrowth) .~~~1!IttjHI .• ~& B*.j:J.m~filiff~ .~M*f1. *1¥J~.~*,~mM~~lli~.~N.~. 0. m'~IM~lli~.(~IM~~lli~~pg~~~&~~)jft~.~~~~~~~~AI¥J. ~W. '. ( :t=j:J~*~~~~*.*m §f'-I¥J. RJ!JIt=~Z~IM$r~~.~J..IJL~J}tJJ;Dl. ~) '~~.lMm.tt~lli~*a*,~a~~~~~~~*l¥Jm.@o. 3~. ,0. l~. ~~~·~*~m.-hAli--hh~~§~~a.~*~.(~.·B*· .m·~~.·.~) ·~~~~.(~*~§·.~·$rn·~ ~. (r:p~*~. . ~m). •• ) '~~Ett. ~~I¥J~~.*4 (paneldata) 'I!!mpg~fl:;~~.~~fi.. lM~lli~.~~~I¥J~.oliff~M*mlli'A~.ttI¥JM~~lli~~~~*AfrOO.. •• M~~lli~~~~~I¥J.*.~,~:t=~IM~lli~.a~ •• ~~.,~.mmm~,~~~~~~~~~OOOO.@o. ~,m.ttM~~lli~. ~~~·*~R·#~$~.-hli=--hhh~~.~al¥J~.*4'l!!m. M~~~~.~~fiM.~lli~~~~*I¥J~.'.m~*~m~.M~~~lli~ ~ 1. %. '. ~~~~~~~-O.l1 %1¥J~OOOOtl:. .~~~~~-0.3 %I¥J~OOOO.. OOtl:®. ; ~.M~~/L\3tlli~1Jo 1 %. ' Jf. ' ~~IW~lliW~~~,*~llit1~~~*W:fj~OOI¥J. 0. *ft.·*~R·*~$m.-hAA--fthh~~.~al¥J~.*4'l!!m. 1/\ ~~. Ui1f ~. ,. ~IM ~m. , j:J1?d!~'~~llif~ GDP I¥J. .~., .mM*~fJ!~.M~~/L'~lliW GDP ra'#tE~J u ~IUH~' ~M.~{J''3t llif~GDP 1¥J ••ltf71Jm 3.08 % ' {g § iWM.~llif~ GDP l¥J~f7IJWa~JIt •• ~. '. Armey Curve .~~fi~.M~~lliW GDP ~*I¥JIlfH~. {§~1!IM.~'3tlliW GDP ra'JtIJ~#tE~J ~.. ~~~'M~~.~@~~A2~.U~:. U ~lUJf~®. 0. •• *~~~2~~(#~:~.~~~~~'~~A+A. if:) 0 New. ii1@ #;tJIIHIl'. ~JR:lttfHjIUij@~~.2~~. ( #~t : ~1liJ3(ll;*~~~~~mm±~)( , ~~J\ +-if:). 0. tt@. *#~'~JR:ltwmm~@~~&-•• ~.m~m(#~t:~1liJ3(ll;*~~~~.~~mm±~x'. nent ,700.. ~@. j!t1F.--'l'. Iwth:. ~®. 1IIf¥3}:'. and . :+lZ9. ~~J\+=if:). 0. ~*J:'. r iJ3(Jf.J:sttllW~~~*1!lJJ.l~52:t:jt!nll;: J. '~.!if:flj. ( #~t) ,m=+-ffHnlZ9Jt1j'. ~~A+tif:lZ9~'Rh~--O~o. *~i!f'. #ta;c;,. r!lt~iJ3(Jf.Jf$(Jc.·xtllW~~~*Z~~J. ' •• Ufi!if:flj (#~t) ,m1i+. =.mlZ9Jt1j'~~h+if:lZ9H'R-A-~lZ90. ii1® *.~·*.fi·#ta;c;, r~.iJ3(Jf.J~m.mw~~~*Z~~J ' •• ~~~M~~(#~t) ' . ~+A.mlZ9Jt1j'~~h+-~lZ9~'R1i~-~ho.

(14) ~$~*~.~~.mm~noo@:~~.·~~~m$~*~-hAO--h ht~~~.'~M~~.~~~*~Ma~W~GDP~M.*.~~#~~tt~. •• tl.~~H.~~·tl.~.~WM. •• ~·fia.~~W~Ma~ ••• ·mm.M~W~.m., ~~$~Ma~W~GDP~M*~~ •• ~.~ffi~•• 'H~~M.~Ma~* ~;~~M*mW,~~#~ttm~~~. ~~·ft.~W~. F"Uli@. 0. *~~~~~$~*~Ma~W~GDP~.~~W'~~OO~~~~~~~~ *~-htA--ftftA~~.~'.m*~Ma~W~GDP~.~~~¥,mM a~W~.~~GDP~~.~~~~~.@o. •••• ~T~~*~Ma~W~~a,~m$~*~-fttA--ftftft~~ Ma~WM~~.~'~~OO~~~~.~~fiMa~W •••~WM~~~a~~, m~M*.m'~~~~~M~~3M~'*~Ma~~W· •• ~H~W·~&fi a.~~W.~~GDP~.~~~OO~W,tl.~ft~W·~~~W·~&~~.. M~W~~GDP~.~~~OO~W'~~$*Ma~W~~.~~.~.~*~~ tmnMa~W~~,**~. 0. ••• ~~affi~~~.~.~$~*~-fttA--ftftft~Ma~~·.~ ~ •• L~Ma~W.~~fl~Ma~W~~.'~~~M*.m'$~*~Ma~ W•• ~.~~Ma~~.L~Ma~W~~~'.~~.~~$~*~Ma~W~ ~.'$UJ\~. 0. m•• ~T~~$~*~~~Ma~Wfl~.~~.~~W'~-hn=-=O OO~~.~,~m~~.~~~$~*~Ma~W.~~~Ma~W~~$~*~. .~~.~~w'.m~*.m'$~*~Ma~W.~~~Ma~Wfl~.~~. ~~~~rEJ~W®. 0. •• ·~M~.~*~Ma~W~.~~~~.'~.~~.~~~$~*~ fttA-=OOO~~~.'m~M*.mtl.~*~~·am ••• *~GDP~ ~.~ •• $~*~Ma~W~.~~.~.'H$~*~Ma~Wmff~~.~. R@ . ~m*~_HM.~W~%~+9~~·~r~~M~mJ.M~.~·.~*%rr«~.H·e-h h~~~=OO=~~*~.tt·OOfl~A~.~~%~·~ •• ~~~·~~n$~~~mtt~~~·. *%~m~.~.m%~.~X.m~Hm~~$~~mH.9fi«.~o. ~®. R@ . ••• ·a~·. *.~.. r~amM.~W~.m~~~~tt~.~&X~.J 'MXft~(~*). rM.~Wm~~~~.~mtt9fiJ. · •• Mft*~~fi(~*). '=000. ·=OO-~mhM·. =OO-~hF.l·n.li-t;o. R~ ~~.Ii· .IIIMJ1!:~l±Il&iiiJf~ (~~* ~~. : ~mH"JW~tt· =OO-~). ~~ •. rM.~!p.~~~'!H~I}.~*a9Jrm9fi. J .••Mft*~~fi. 0. (~tJl) • =oo-~m+.

(15) .~~~~~~W*.~«~~.'~~~m*$~. •• ~•• $~~~~~M. a~*W~a.M~~~~*~W~~~'~«~Ma~WW.~~*M~~*H%. , H~Yi-~«~~~*~~lI!Ma~ffifB~~. (17lJtzo : Wagner's Law ~~.) , fffi ~ ~ W*.~ •• ~lUW~~lI!Mi&~ W~.~ ~*~W~rr;l:~;fJT ' ~~Mi&~ ~~. W~~~~*~~~~KOO~R.'~~a~~~.W~M.~~~~'~.-B~. JEffifBo ~~'~$~*.Ma~wa~~~.~ •• ~.nOO'*$~~m=@moo* ~~*.Ma~WW.~~*~g.:-~~rr;l:m~~B.~~*~~'~Ma~ w~mmW~*$'~fiMi&~W~~~~*~~W(M~*~.·~~.~·~~ .·~~.·m.w~w~·~&~mw~~«Z~~o) ;=~~~m~~~ft~, ~;fJTMa~W~ml:t17lJ~{l:&jj;~jj;@:~ (17lJtzo~~.WJ1t~z~~. -~ Granger Causality ~*~JE (17lJtzOII'jUt'fJZ~~. 0. ). 0. 0. ). ;. =jj!~fT. =fimOO$i~~flJl*.M. a~ww~~~*g.Z-$~,@m~~T~~-~~H~~~: (-).~~~. *g{*~JE.1!7'C.~~E!Jj*.Ma~WW~~~*~1ijj;H{*. ' fffi Granger Causality. ~*~JE~rr.n1!~ff~~~tt~~~~,~m~~-~~rrrr.n1!®;. (=). ' 17lJtzO.~*Pi1!JW (Wagner's Law) ~~.; (=) fE!gl'l"J~~*iiji7'C.~Ma~W~m ' 1!l.tJ5~lJi ~nftMa~WW$*W~nMa~W'~~'~*m~$~*.Ma~W •• ~~ rrD~(JE~)~~-mft~~,~m~H$~*.Mi&~W~ •• ~~~~~f~ lI!~-fttA~~.~~M@'ff~ •• ~~~~,m~~mN~~~rr.n1!~~ *fmfi1flj(01!!~.fE!HMa~ffifB~$~*.~~~jZJt?bfj$~~mtE. (. ). •• ,. Ma~WW~Mm~~~$~*.~~~*~~~~K~~~W@o. ~. 1-. ~mW~$~*.-ftAO--ftftft~Ma~W·.~~$W~Mm~~. 0. ~~Mm~~~~=~~m~~~.~~$~*.~~~*~~W'~~~*~m,. ). ~. 151. ~1lI~oo. f. {. tjJ ~ *~IttJI&5i: t±:l~~~hlt*-ItSI*IUl{*i¥J~[l'f. I. ffQSJ. fUll, 'HPJ?!:;' r rpi!UMj6c5ttl\!f!t~i¥JJ!~7Hrr J. 'l:.;S~ii!tiJf~ (~tg) ,=OO=if:i5B:hJtlj '=0. o=if::h,El'Ji-=--1:;o. tt@ JIlt-Mtf, r "~flJ$ , ilr~(:!l;R! ' if:+-,El , JiJ\:::: - J$i]. Mi6c5ttf:lW~jJ!f!{Y*. j. 'ilUtiJf~ ( ~tJj$. ,m=1i -Jtlj , =00=. 0. tt® t!llUlr,,'mi~W~ ~ Zapata and Rambaldi ' Gujarati j:).:& Toda and Yamamoto ~)(~ , f$~i¥Jjt~fl7t m:15$ff1f~*1t:ri'iJ",jWil~i¥Jr,,~mi ' .§.Jt F-test *1t:llt:l:.ilft1'il,1f~tt ' &::,m1JDW~lEaJ(~ , RamDaldi and Doran tE IIH±:l3Kif.J Granger No-Causality Testl~l:ll!~)E)j$llJflflEj:J.J:i¥Jr,,'mi j:).l:.~ ~ H. O. Zapata 0. and Rambaldi, A. N., • Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of. Economics and Statistics, vol. 59, no. 2 (1997), pp. 258-98; D. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1995); Toda and Yamamoto, op. cit., pp. 225- 50 W Rambaldi and Doran, op.. cit.. tt® rp ~*l!ifUi6<:*1t:lltfll1:/JfE:(ftpraJMjEj(~. 2002 rp 7'G~f1flE ' ~Jrilffi6<:5ttf:lfll1:/Jf:(f)E~J:~m-i&tt. ff@. JqJtt®z~B,~. ' 1'ff1fMi¥Jr,,~mi. 0. 1l!m~JriMjFJc~H:lfll1~ El. 1950- 2001 if:i¥J. ~U!lif.J~BJHW~~*3t*. 2 rpH:f.@Z~A)j. 0. 0. \ 1.

(16) ~.'lli~*7~.~~*~Ma~WW.~~ • • M§D~~~~.o~~'.7 ~ • • M~®~fi~~*~Ma~WW.~~.~®.MD~~.~~'~7.~~. *~aJfJf1.f.t~.~~.®~.. '. *)(j:)Il~~,Iji~. Granger No-Causality Test ~. .~~~$'*M.~~fi~~*~Ma~WW.~~.~D~~.~~'~~.M afJE~fiIFff~~*~~~!'Hi. 0. .7B~*)(~~~§~'*)(~~.M.~~fi*.Ma~WW.~~.®D. .~*~~'&~.MafJE~~*~®~ffltt'~~.ffi~~.~$®M.tt,~~ *)(~~ ~f*. Granger No-Causality Test ~$*~fiMa3Z:WW.~~.~.MD.~*. 0. S7~.~~*~Ma3Z:WW.~~.~®~.~~,ft~~ • • ~.~*~~ ~lH-.m~. ,. j&j*~ • • ~~-~iflHi!j:)~~~. ftrfl'~~.~f* (~J~O. (cointegration) ~fi15$*~.~ Kolluri, Panik and Wahab' f*51il ' WI{J~JilltJ~*~~*. ~) 'ill~~~~~~~mw'. •• ®~~~~fi~$.~~.~~~.®~.'fi. ;ft F·test .lH-.~~~~~tt@ , jI&*~~1*ffllli~~ Toda and Yamamoto Pff~,ljial!: j,t© ' .83 Rambaldi and Doran ®j;fi,ljiW*® Granger No-Causality Test ~$ , ~ MWALD .lH-.*.Wdm~i¥J~~tE ' "6J~~i¥J.~~.tt~.i¥Jr",~. ' ~~.~ft rfl'~foJfj~.~f* ' ~~lli"6Jj:)~M~ftrfl'i¥Ja~~~ (time lagged) ~* 1.1Hf Toda and Yamamoto ~~~ , t~~~*~m~~~o~~ : 0. k. v: = Au + L. AJ V:-J + e t. 1=1. ~ ( 1) A~. , Vt~UF-fJl~ft~~ ,. ' :Ef~~ al(~) , aii) , al~) ... ai;) ~.~~JJl~ft~ 1 ' 2 oo~ft~Mi¥Jf*ftfi ' ~~.m 1 ' 200 ~ftrf'l'~~.~f*. Ho '• a 12(1). '. ;ftl;WA!l€f1~. a 12(2). -. -. -. -. a 12(3). -. -. "6Jfj~5't~UWi-M~fJl VH~ft~~1l. Ho. :. a 12(n). -. ••• -. . -. 0. (2). :Ef:tE*@Ho ' JW1VF~-~i¥Jf8IL\*~T ' ~t~~i¥J Modified Wald test ( MWald ) .lH-.SDif ' m 2 oo~ftf.tm 1 oo~ftJl~ Granger Causality ~f* ;ft~~~ftrf'l' 0. i¥JGrangerCausality~f*f1X~~iHtE. fJl VAR (k). m~. lit@ [i1Jit@ lit@. 0. ~m@o. 0. ~~$~83TodaandYamamotoPff~,Iji, f.t~. , R!ffl-oo Modified Wald test (MWald) *fElH- '. ;ft~. k .~m~.

(17) $~*~llH)Cli':I±lW~~~~-ltsB~1III1*B9lijm. 153. ~~I¥JIJ~Ha'~~*Jjf. , ffiJ Granger No-Causality Test J'l1JJ:j-*Jlf.tffl}(t-J-t15Jtru:; (chi-square) *fl!!rr VAR (k + dmax) ,;ttq:t~~~~~Mf& (lag length used in the system) 'dmaxm~~q:tm.g-(t-J:ijf*~ (maximumorderofintegrationinthesystem) @ 0 lit1J1*~E13 Rambaldi and Doran ~~ Granger No-Causality Test (t-J MWald ~rriillJE13 *OO...t~~tnl (Seemingly Unrelated Regression, SUR) 151*gf1Hll*@ 0 *Uff~~~ Rambaldi and Doran I¥JfRA~rr ' )'GJ:jrriitxa Eviews m¥;flHiRJE ' J:j&~~~~ Mf& ' ~~ J:j SAS *{I!!gf Granger No-Causality Test (t-J MWald ~rrii 0 Granger No-Causality Test fl!!rrfRrFtl01~ : )'GJ:j Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) m¥;flHiRJEWIitHie VAR ( k) ~ ~ (t-J k ( IIif ra' ~ ~ * ll) ,_~tttj(; tfj d max ( ~ ~ q:t If .g- (t-J :ijf * ~J§) , IIif ra' ~ ~*Jjf(t-J~JEJ'lIJ:;tf!ft. 1 %(t-JmIL'7l<$TJ:j Akaike Information Criteria (AlC) {Wi:**U JE ' t~lf J:j VAR (k + dmax) f~~ , JJ!ffl Rambaldi and Doran pJTUff~(t-JIZ9*~JE1J1* *{I!!. Granger No-Causality Test (t-J MWald ~rrii ' *{l!!rr~J)(ra'(t-JIZ9*ruJ{* 0 ~.*Xm=wwm~w(t-JJt~,q:t~*~(t-J~~M~~tfj(~Jt~M~~~tfj WM~.~~tfj). ·q:t~M~~tfj·~15M~~tfj·~&~~~~ttM~~tfj~W.. ~~*Ma~ffi.(t-Jli~~W,~~m(l)A(t-J~*~.'*X~.~.~~JE~ 1~. :. V, = (GDp, TG, CG, GEe, GEL, GEE, GES, GED, GEp, GEO) (t=1953-2001) (3) JLtm~ffl*~~q:tl!m*~M~~tfjW~fJ!f~*ra':;tf!1~Ht~. q:t : GDP. mq:t~*~~A.'«l!mpq1:ii:=5mi. (GDP) ; TG. Granger Causality o;tt. mq:tl!m*~§jA.'lffM~. ~~tfj;CGmq:t~*~~A.'lffM~.~~tfj;G~mq:tl!m*~§jA.'lffq:t~M~. ~tfj. ; GEL mq:t~*~§jA.'lfft1!!15M~5ttfj ; GEE ~q:t ~*~§jA.'lff~fJ!f~~ 5ttfj ; GES mq:t~*~§jA.'lfft±itX~5ttfj ; GED mq:t~*~§jA.'lff~ItJj~:w: 5ttfj;G~mq:t~*~§jA.'lfffi~Wg~tfj;GEO~q:t~*~§jA.,«;tt~M~ ~tfj@. 0. mT~~~~(t-JrriiJt~~*,~f.tm(3)A~~J)(WG~~f.tJ)(~(~). 0*. Uff~.~m~.~MMWm-nn~-=OO-~(t-J~.~'~~-nnA/-nn. n~m~M~.,~~~J)(~~W.~*.~~~*=,m~~J)((t-J~*~rrii~~ ~miJ\o. itt@ Ii'iUt@o. itt@ ~Mtl° [-t.@ . ffl n!H!J!A D ~*~f,(f.t~~~ ~~i¥JOJfmj!;W • iI&;f:)(I¥T~}EZ~f,(-\;'j' j:)'A!O!ilifi ( per capita ) J1I!o. ~.

(18) ~ A~. IX:. IDt .'It GDPIKmA D. GDP (GDP). ~A.'ItMi&3!:"3Z1±l (TG ). 1t'ItMi&3!:"3Z I±l/~A D. ~A.'ItMi&~{.\3Z1±l. (CG). .'ItMi&~JL\3ZI±l/~AD. ~A.'Ittj:l9:!:Mi5t3Z1±l. (GEC). .'Ittj:l9:!:Mi5t3ZI±l/~A D. ~A.'It:tt!r;fjMi5t3Z1±l. (GEL). 1t'It~1iMi5t3Z I±l/~A D. ~A.'It*!l1rJnt~3Z1±l. (GEE). .'It*!l!rJnt~3Z I±l/~A D. ~A.'Itt±~)(~3Z1±l (GES). .'Itt±tf)(~3ZI±l/~AD. ~A'.'Itji!lgll/.i~~3Z1±l. (GED). .'Itji!lgll/.i~~3Z I±l/~A D. ~A.'Itfii&'i'J!3Z1±l (GEP). J('Itfri&'i'J!3Z I±l/~A D. ~ A .'It~ft!!1ili~.!i3Z I±l (GEO). .'It~ft!!1ili~.!i3Z I±l/~A D. iti*4*i1l :. 1t:J(iJ*1fIt~.. BJl. 2002 '. It:J(iJMJS1~.. 2002. 0. itt : 1. *::tzA~GDP'tiM*ElIt:J(iJ*1fIt~. 2002 • ~r:p~*~Z~.r;;*!l!~~JJ!Ii!JLtif';]l!ii~JfU!E:::WlI!\H.li • m i!W~.m-tl.1i= - -tl.J\[9{f • l*mmfi~o'1ZFlti~ftI~ (Material Product System. Mm MPS) ; ~= m~.m-tl.J\1i - -tl.:h={f . J1t-mf)t.mMPSa~W~.r;;mf.-'h~jff-a~ (System of National Accounts· .mSNA)~~z~Lti!W~;~~mf)t.m-tl.tl.~{f£~·*!l!~-:h:h={fif';].jff-o~(~ft)~¥.·~. MPS if';] r ~.r;;J&A J .mtJi.L,mtll'! .. ))).}iU).. SNA if';] r Fl1lpg1:~~iOO: J. .mfliJL,jl1ltll'!if';]~~U~.jffl. • M~ 7 r:p. Fl1l*~~~fliJJ."if';]ffik • • ~Mo.r:pFl1l*~if';].jff-.fl*g~~-tl.:h={fM.~.jff-~ftif';]~~~ ~fl'ti" r Di~ J if';]r,,~M • {EU.lH'It:J(iJ*1fIt~.. ••••. 2002. if';]~1lA • *~Fl1l*.1ITf,'ij et!H'-tl.:h1i1f:if';]i1i~~. ~r:p~*~if';]GDP~~~~.7~~·~~ • • • -.tt·.r:p~*~-tl.1i=-=OO-{fif';]. GDP~.e.~~ttw-.tto~~~M• • A~*R1ITf,'ijFl1l.r;;*!l!~fli.~~·It:J(iJ*M(iJ~~~.~It.. 15;! ( ~tJ?: : r:pFl1lRlItlliMift . -:h:h-t;{f) ; ))).&Fl1l*RlIt.ml • It:JJII*1fIt~. 2002 ( ~tJ?: : r:pFl1lRWH Mift'=OO={f) .:f{[9:h o 2. *::tZ~~1i'jlt.fil&JtlliitiM* ElIt:J(iJMJS1~. 2002 • t&~It:J(iJMJS1~. 2002 if';]~1lA • *~lttil&g~lttil&Jt lliWr:p*lttil&Jtlliif';]RlftO~. (iEfl). 'Jffi*~-:htl.[9{f))).ilij~.t~Fl1lpg?j.JR~g~·. 13 -:htl.[9{fit9~§. M~pg?j.m~g~·*~lttil&.~It:JJIIM~~.2002r:pe~~-tl.1iO-=OO-{fif';]lttil&~lliWr:p*lt.f il&Jtlliif';]RlItO~(iEfl). ·~-.~~.m~SM~pg?j.m~.~·.if';]RlIto~~~~m·.r:pFl1l*~~. .lttaJtlliWr:p*lttil&Jtmif';].MiEfle~.-.tt·*::tMl*mIt:JJIIMJS1~.2002r:p-:h1i=-=OO -1f:if';]~~fi~.'1iM ~.ft·=OO={f). 0. ))).~r,{JM~~. Ar:p~lttil&{f&~~~ Jl *~ 'R~[9A-~[9:h'~1i-t;-~frOo. . It:JJIIMi1l~. 2002 ( ~tJf( : r:p~lt.fil&.

(19) ~~*~M~~ffi • • M~.-~.~~~.m. ~=. 1~. ~~i\I1fft. rtlt'L:A~~7G. ~. ZP:;t$Jfl. ~$~. A;t$J GDP ( GDP ). 1435.57. 2129.96. ~A.flfM~~~ffi (TG). 197.95. 230.12. ~A.flfM~~iLi~ffi. 158.55. 187.77. ~A.fIf~~M~3tffi (GEC). 90.19. 95.45. ~A.fIf:ti!l1JM~~t±l. (GEL). 159.38. 231.32. ~A.fIf.M~~~ffi. (GEE). 107.58. 115.22. ~A.flft±tot~3tffi (GES). 58.\3. 91.69. ~A.fIf~/fjj~~~ffi. (GED). 25.63. 23.96. ~A.flfIT~fl'~~ffi (GEP). 32.21. 56.92. ~A.fIf:Jt:ftM'mPJi~ffi (GEO). 21.62. 37.47. lnt*~. fl. : *~~~Jll!. (CG). 6. .E. " 1f~Jt*~~Jf~-tt1~ *~~.a.~M*~.~m~'~~%~~~*~T,a.MC.*~~mF .~.MMm~~W.~~~O*~~.M~~.~~.~~.m,.~a~~*.. (k) ~ k (.rfl'Mm~f:l) m 2' MI: VAR order = 2 + 1 = 3 ' ~~ Granger No-CausalityTest ' ~flMjlilc5ttHW~P9~;t:=BtEi (GDP) 1Z9*I"H*~. mM*•• ~.lio~.li~m'~~~~~M.~tHti~.~~~ •• ~ •• *~ IID ' M••• j!j~.*~ 3 ~ , ~AM.~~tB ' ~AM • .ftH.\~tB ' ~A~:9cMj[j( $Xaft.tH~dvt. VAR. ~tB'~A~~M.~tH'~A~~~~~tH'~Atl~~~~lli'~A~~~~~. tH·.Afi•• ~~tH·~&~A~~MM~tH~ti~.~~WA~D¥~IZ9*H {* ' ~~M.~JC.,~tH ' ~:9cM.~tH ' :ti!rjjM.~tH ' t±~~~~tH . t@~~~~ tH'~&~~MM~tH~~.3~~~ •• *m~~~W'~~M.~~tB,~~~ ~~tH'~&fi •• ~~tH~W~~~~W;~~.~~~.M.~tH~.*nOO' A~GDP •• ~Afi •• ~~tHW~~MM~tHa~lZ9*n~'~~'~~~.~ ~tT • • ~~tHa~~5~~~~~W ' ~~~~ti~~ftBM~5~tH.flIjRa~~~~~ ~.*o. •• ~~*~M.~tHW~.~~M~~~IZ9*H~:M .~~tH ' M.~JC.,~tH ' ~:9cM.~tH . :t~~M.~tH~W~.~~rfl'Ra~!Jl-~ ~1Z9.n~,~.~.ti~M.~tH~~~ •• ~D¥'D~~t@*~M.~tHW • • ~.M~n~~~M •• ~~.flIj,~~t@*~~M_~tH •• ~~~~¥~~~~ ~~~L.mM*,m.

(20) ®.*'~$~*~M~~~lli~~~~~*~~.~~oo~,~w*xm=w~-, ~~*~M~~lli~GDP~M~.~.~. •• M*-.'~$M~~lli~•• ~*. ~rr~~~*~~'lliW*xm=W~*~M~~~&.$~$~W~~.~~$~ fJt~fljtsMm1li-.o. ADF ( Constant and Trend). AIC ( Constant and Trend). A!'J) GDP ( GDP ). -4.312121 ( 1 ). -2.550724. 4iA.1tMiI&~sttB (TG). -6.175195 (2). -1.095943. 4iA.1tMiI&tHlsttB (CG). -6.580628 ( 2 ). -0.894878. 4iA.1t,*,*MiI&sttB (GEC). -5.701171 (3). -1.020021. 4iA.1t:t1!l1JMiI&sttB (GEL). -4.242741 (4). -0.380914. 4iA.1t~~~~sttB (GEE). -5.904676 ( 2 ). -0.372358. 4iA.1tf±tnt~sttB (GES). -4.580280 ( 2 ). -1.200747. 4iA.1t~Ilfj~~sttB. (GED). -4.894545 ( 1 ). -1.468388. 4iA.1tfiil&ff~sttB (GEP). -6.032809 ( 2 ). -1.445907. 4iA.1t::ltfI!HIliMsttB (GEO). -4.220222 ( 3 ). -0.054845. ~. f{.. jt*f*i1JJt:*IVf~~JJl!·. at: 1. mfll"1r,,'~~IJjIf*fz~irJ!l1ifA~ I ( 1) • t£ 99 %l¥Jfg'L'71d~r· at : 2. ( ) 1'-3~l"1r,,'~~l¥JlIJlfA •. •• $~*~~.M~6~ntt~lliw •• ~*~~*~~$OO'~fi~.~~ lliW~~M~~lliW •• ~*~a~w~~*~~'~$fi~.~~lli~.~~~~ aw~~oo •• o~.*Xm=w~-'~~$fi~.~~lli~GDP~M~~$~ ~m~~mm,~m*xm=W*~fi~~*~~m~~•• ~*~~~~~~OOOO. .0. ~~~L~.mM*,*x~~~~Wm1li: (-)M~~~lli~~. •• ~*a~~~D~~~'~W~~¥~*~~~~M. *-.'W*~~·M~.·W.W~.~~~~M*ffi&'@M~.~~lli~~~ .~*a~lE~D~~.. ' D7F~M~5Zlli~rg~i'J7t~~5ZlliW.{.'~lli~~&\~ ,. ~~m~~~7t~~M~~lli~~~.~*~~.'~~~$~~W~~~~m~M. ~.~5Zlli~.m(~~.*~*.m~lli·~m&~.~~M~~~.ffl~5Zlli). ,. ( {§lJ~o.fi&~m'IiMftti5Zlli . ~tIfn~ •• ~~~$,a-~m ••• ~*$o. .Mz~~tIJfgM~~5Zlli$;jFM~.'L\5Zlli~tm7t tl~.~ • • • ~5Zlli). ,~a. (=)~~W~$M~~lli~~.~~*~a~rr~D~~~'~~$M~5Zlli. •• ~*~~.' •• ~*~~$M~~lli~~~~ , @~~*:fD~ , ~Wf~~.~.~~~~M*-. ' {!~!lItW Wong ~~~~*. ~rr~~**~$~M~~lli~ ~.

(21) $i*.Ma~W.~M~.-~.n~~~. ~~ffi~~.'*~~~.~fiM*~~".m·. l~. •• ~5.~~ft~'~~M~~. lli~~~~~~~~K~~**~$~~~M~~lli~~.'~ili~~~$~*~$ ~M~.~~~~fi~~mo. ~li ~. fx. BJA.1tMa~~W. (TG) BJA.1tMa~,(,,~w. (CG). *~M~~lli~~~~~~~~~.~ -1H!lMa~W. ~7'A'~.~~. ~~~M~.. ~tlMa~W. 1i~~.lUIf* ( -0.189950*** ). ( -0.307683 ). 1ii]~H~.lUIf* ( 1.080564*** ). 1!!€ ~.IUI f* ( -0.347798 ). 1m~.IUI{*. ~ r<u~¥ [tl] [~B!! IUl {*. J¥lr<u J¥lr<u. BJA.1t$~Ma~W. 1ii]~~.rul{*. 1m~.IUI{*. (GEC). ( 0.289803*** ). (0.721031 ). BJA.'IIf:lt!l1JMa~W. 1i~~.lUlf* ( 1.083373*** ). 1m~.rulf* (-0.841591). ¥[tl]. 1i~~.rul{* ( -0.190276*** ). 1m~.rulf* ( -0.046021 ). ¥r<u. 1ii]~~.lUIf* ( 1.408011 *** ). 1m~.rulf* ( 0.144103 ). J¥lr<u. 1ii]~~.lUIf* ( 1.479705*** ). 1!!€ ~. rul f* (-0.612131 ). ¥r<u. (GEL) BJA.'IIf~M9l~~W. (GEE) BJA.1ttt~x~~W. (GES) BJA.1t~IW~~~W. (GED) BJA.'Ilfrrai'3ll!~W. 1ii]~~.IUl{*. 1ii]~~.rulf*. (GEP). ( -0.569177*** ). ( -0.293275*** ). 1i~~.rul{* (0.137582*** ). 1i~~.rulf* ( l.l69952* ). @jA 1f1t:J't ftH fill ~2i ~ W (GEO). ¥rPJ I. ~rPJ. ~rtl]. jf*'1*~:*liIf~mJlllo ~ : 1. ( ) ~m~rdllnH*fxfO ~ ~. 0. : 2. ***. **W*~Btlft~ 1 %. 5 %W 10 %t'f(JlIIi~*~ : 3. VAR order- VAR ( ) = 1 + 2 = 3. (=)~~~M~~lli$'~~~~~lli'~&fi~~~~lli5~~GDP~~~ ~ftOO~W,tl.~~~lli'~~~lli·~&~~MM~lli~~GDP~~~~~OO~. .'~W~~.5.~~~~M*+~-B,mW.~~~~~M*ffi&'.~~~ ~~~~M~~~~'M~~lli~~~.~W-B·&~.~$L~~~'~~B~. %~gm.~~~M*o.~tt.~~~~MM~lliW~~~~A~~~OO~.'. ~~~MM~lli~.~§M~~.~*g.~~~~~. •• ,m*g~~~~m.~. .~.~AAMM~lli~.~'$~~W~~AAMM~llim~m+~~.,~w*~m.

(22) =~.-~~MM~W~GDPtt~~ili~~&m.~~*-B;~~'.~~Wfi. .~~*z~*mft~~.'~~*~M~~W~.~.~~~WftB~Rff~.' .BM~$*~.*'~~~M$Mm.~&0~.a'&~m •• ~.~~$'fi *il!~~*ffJ~ftjijZOOf$. 0. *~M~~$~*~M~~WW.~~.M~~*~~'%@~T$~*~M~ ~Wft.~RmM~Rm.m,~.g~~~~M~~Wft.~~*~~~. •• ~~,. m~*~~~ •• ~*'~~r±~~~Rm:. (-). $~*~M~~~W. ~Uil!~~.rf'!',R$Ut!~~*~1*. ' '. M~~IL'~W. '. $:9cM~~W. ~$*~M~~IL'~W. '. '. J:)&:t~::1JM~~W. $:9cM~~W. '. J:)&:t~::1J. M~~Wfi.~~.~tt~~~'$~*~M~~~Wfi.~~*~ft~~~o. (=)~OO~~~ttM~~W::1Jjij'$~*~.~.m~W,tl*~ft~W'~. &~~.~~Wft.~~.M~¥~~*~~'~$tl*~ft~W,~~.m~Wfi .~~*~~tt~~w'@.~.m~Wfi.~~.~~ftjij~~;*~ff~~g~. Wft.~~*MA.~ftjij~*~~;*~~~MM~Wft.~~.M~.~ttjij~ *~~o*~~~~~*'~M~~Wfi.~~*~~W$~,ft~~~~~~~~ ~~*+~-Bo (~)$~*~~M~~Wft.~~.M~~~M~mM$aU'~$~*~.~ ~M~~*~*.B~M~~Wffifi.~ ••. o. ~~~~~~~Rm'*~~~~r~~mtt.~ft. •• ~~ •• :. (-)$~*~M~~~w'.~.m~Wfi~.~~*~ftjij~*'~~*~ ~*M~~ •• ~A~~.~~$~~~'$~~m~.~~~~~~ill+~~~' ~~~M~~mfi.~~*~~~~'.~~~.M~~W~m(~~ ••• ~.m ~W~GDP~~~)ftM~~A~m(~~~-wm.WD~m$'.~~~.~. ~.::1J~~~m$"·"·~. ) ~ZP:{ij1'Fffl ' :Ji1g:fr$.MZP:{ij~0~M~~m. 0. (=)M~~W~~.D.'$~M~~W$'ff~~g~Wft~~.~ftMM. ~W~M~~W~tt~~.&~,mfi~$~*~.~~ •• ~~ttjij~~'&~~. ~~mff~~*B.'~m.~tt~WB~.*~m.'fi~$~~m®~,~.~. ~.~' ~mHtlJ. ••• ~~ffl~~'~k=~'~&~~tl*~~~~~.~~~~.~M. atlJ::1J ~. 0. (=)~~$~*~~.~M •• ~RR~.m$'tl.~~~ffi~~W.*B ~~~'M~~W~.~~.&.w~m.~~~~'~W~E.~.tt~m~~~'. •••mm.~.~,.*~wm~,m •• ~.mfttlM~ft~M~~W$~tt~, .~$~~W~M~a~~¥$~~.~m~.~z-o. *~.~~~$~*~M~~Wft.~~*~*M~.~*~~'@~~~.::1J.

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(24) Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Mainland China Ai Wei & Sheng-wen Tseng Abstract The purpose of this paper is to analyze the causality between China's government expenditure and economic growth and to examine Wagner's Law of public expenditure with the time-series data of 1953 to 2001. The Granger No-Causality procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) in a vector autoregression (VAR) model is applied to test the causal link between government expenditures with different definitions and economic growth. The empirical results show the following. First, the causality between the total, core, central, and local government expenditures and economic growth are a one-way causal link. The core, central, and local government expenditures have positive effects on economic growth. Where as total government expenditure has a negative effect. Secondly, the causality between government expenditure and economic growth in Mainland China does not support Wagner's law.. Keywords: China; Government Expenditure; Economic Growth; Granger No-Causality; Wagner's Law.

(25) *1\!l1J*~MiJ)(sttl:l~~~Jjl(;~-lt5L"lHIf*rfJ.m. 161. *~),(lt *~.(~m). ,. rM~~W~ • •m• • ~mft~~J. '. ($*M.*•• ~) ,. 9 ' 5-7 0. , t.l1Ji (2000) , r~t~J!ltlM~~W • •m~;J.F~J.!I!tt~nlGlZ9&:jtf;H~ J ' (M 1i.~) , 2' 77-78 0 ~3&$ , .=E.~ (1994) , r ~JfJ~WW.j1!~*"MlI- ii't1tZ.~UJf~ J ' (.m ~~~. ~X). *w~. , 22 : 2 ' 175-209 0. , *~tf ' f;f'~~ (2002). , r itt1t~J{f~w:mmw.~nlG.zUJf~ J ' (it t1t.~~iI!F3 fU) , 38 : 4' 53-69 0 (1993) , (~IfJ~t±HJ[mW.~nlG.-ii'tJ!II~.~~~) , ~j'[~til*. = ~. *tt.. :±~UJf~pfTm±~X f.!tlffM~. 0. (~IfJ~Wfi~W.~nlG.zUJf~). ( 1992) ,. ,. ~.ll:~til* • • ~UJf~pfTm. ±~Xo. , rM~~W~J.!I!:mm • • ~.~.~~~J ' ($*M.*•• ~) , 11 ' 1-5 ' 29 f*.~~ (2001) , ($~M~~W~f.itUJf~) , ~tJ?: : $~rrIIjW~:f± 0 ~.~ (2002) , rlX~M~~W&:jt~.1If~~~ J ' (.~fHlilflJa.IC~) '4' 19-220 m~fj)3 (1985) , ($#M~~W~~.W~Jm) , ii'~t: $~.~UJf~lI5Go f*'R:ft(1985)' r~~pfT~W~IfJ~Wra'~*Im{*zUJf~J' (it~IHfofU) '9: 2' 80-92 0 ~.~(2001). 0. iaHi. (1986) , 1 ' 45-58. jif1ff1f '. rlX~~J{f~WtjFm~*ZUJf~J. '. , 22:. (ii'tJ!II.~~iI!F3flj). 0. ~*~. (1998). , r ~J{f~WW*~~nlG.JJ!m~5..2::t)tgl& J '. (it~N*fU). ,. 21: 4' 93-106 , r .~flJ$ , ~~#f;JJ! ' M~~WW.~ • • J ' (itij~UJf~) , 251 ' 83-84' ¥13~. (2001a) , r$~M~fHljjjU (1949-1979) ~3I~~$fD15rtuJ ' (o9Ji'i) , 0. ¥l3mtt (2002). 0. 2' 80-86 ¥I3~1JI ( 2001b) , r $ ~ M~fHlilflJ (1979-2000) ~3I~~$fD15 rtu J ' (a9:1fi) , 4' 65-70 1f*~1b ( 1991) , (M~~*W.mnlG.zlZ9*Im{*: $~*~@J~zUJf~) , it~t : 0. 0. $~*~mUJf~1I5G !i!~1E~~. 0. ( 1931) ,. (][m~M~.tIi!~). , Adolph Wagner ( 1883 ). W-~. , l:fflj :. ~fj)30. ( 1994) , ($~M~fHlilflJa9:1fi) , ~tJ?: : $~M~.~W~1± 1it:1t ' Ilx~ ( 1997) , ($#a9:1fi11fllit~~M~Wl3~) 'ii'~t: ~~.rni. JJj!HJ~~. 0. 0.

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