MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

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MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

This is a joint publication of the Macao Economic Services (DSE), the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). DSE prepares the analysis of the World Economy and External Merchandise Trade, as well as data on tables I.1, I.2, II.7 and II.8. AMCM prepares the analysis of Money and Finance and data on tables VIII.1 to VIII.7. DSEC prepares the analysis and data on the remaining sections.

Further information can be obtained from the Documentation and Information Centre of DSEC.

Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.

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Editor: DSEC

Macao, January 2016

Typesetting and design: DSEC Printing: DSEC

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THE WORLD ECONOMY

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Global economy saw moderate growth in the third quarter of 2015. The US economy maintained steady growth, the Euro area showed modest recovery while growth in Japan slowed. With weakening demand for global imports, declines in commodity prices, lower capital flows to emerging markets, emerging market currencies under pressure and volatility of the financial markets, downside risks to global economic activity appeared more pronounced. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2015 indicated that recovery in advanced economies picked up slightly while emerging market and developing economies continued to slow down. The world economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2015, down by 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast; the growth projection for 2016 also dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%.

The US economy maintained steady growth in the third quarter, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising by 2.2% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-to-quarter. Private consumption expenditure was the major impetus for growth, contributing 2.1 percentage points to the economic expansion; fixed investment and government expenditure contributed 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively to the increase and exports added 0.1 percentage point; meanwhile, rising imports lowered the growth rate by 0.3 percentage points. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter to 5.2%; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.2%.

The Euro area showed moderate growth, with steady increase in the German and French economies. The third quarter GDP increased by 1.6% year-on-year and 0.3%

quarter-to-quarter. Inventory and consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions contributed 0.2 percentage points each to the economic growth; exports and government final consumption expenditure added 0.1 percentage point each to the increase, while imports dragged down the growth by 0.4 percentage points. The unemployment rate declined further by 0.6 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 10.3%.

The UK economy saw steady growth, with the third quarter GDP rising by 2.3%

year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-to-quarter. Gross fixed capital formation was the main driver of economic growth, contributing 1.2 percentage points to the increase. Household final consumption expenditure and government expenditure added 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively to the economic growth, while net exports dragged down the increase by 1.5 percentage points. The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 5.3%.

Due to the growth slowdown and changing demand structure in China, emerging markets and developing economies in the Asian region showed slower growth. The

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October 2015 WEO of IMF indicated that the ASEAN 5 economies^a are projected to expand by 4.6% in 2015, down by 0.1 percentage point from the July forecast; the projection for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan is revised downward by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5%, and that for India is lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%; China is projected to grow by 6.8%, same as the July forecast.

The third quarter GDP of Japan rose by 1.0% year-on-year but contracted by 0.2%

quarter-to-quarter, representing two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Stable exports contributed 0.5 percentage points to the economic growth, while domestic demand lowered the increase by 0.3 percentage points. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%; the seasonally adjusted rate was also 3.4%.

The economy of the Republic of Korea picked up the pace as the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemic gradually subsided. GDP for the third quarter increased by 2.6% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-to-quarter, a 4-fold increase from 0.3%

in the previous quarter and the biggest growth since the second quarter of 2010. Stimulus measures of the government drove up domestic demand. Gross capital formation and final consumption expenditure contributed 1.0 and 0.9 percentage points to the economic growth while sluggish exports dragged down the increase by 0.1 percentage point. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 3.4%.

In Mainland China, GDP for the third quarter expanded by 6.9% year-on-year, down by 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter. In the first three quarters of 2015, value added of the above-scale industries rose by 6.2% year-on-year, down by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first half year of 2015; fixed asset investment increased by 10.3%

year-on-year, down by 1.1 percentage points; retail sales of consumer goods rose by 10.5% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage point, of which sales of communication equipment increased by 35.8%, construction and decoration materials by 18.6% and furniture by 16.7%. Total value of external trade for the first three quarters of 2015 decreased by 8.2% year-on-year and the trade surplus amounted to USD423.3 billion.

Inflation was stable as Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter increased by 1.4%, with the CPI for September rising by 1.6% year-on-year.

The economy of Hong Kong grew at a slower pace of 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015, and rose by 0.9% quarter-to-quarter. Domestic demand remained the major driving force of economic growth but the rate of increase slowed. Amid the unstable external environment, gross fixed capital formation decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, where machinery and equipment acquisition declined notably while building and

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construction works saw slower growth. Private consumption expenditure and government consumption expenditure maintained steady growth, rising by 4.3% and 2.6% respectively year-on-year. Unsteady global economy continued to be a drag on the trade performance of Hong Kong. Merchandise exports contracted for two consecutive quarters, down by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter; meanwhile, exports of services slackened again, falling by 1.3%. The unemployment rate edged up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, and the seasonally adjusted rate was 3.3%.

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ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY

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I. Overview

In the third quarter of 2015, the economy of Macao continued to undergo adjustment, shrinking by 24.2% year-on-year in real terms, a slowdown from the 26.4% drop in the second quarter. The decline was mainly due to continuous decrease in exports of services.

In terms of external demand, exports of services were dragged down by the declines in exports of gaming services and other tourism services. As regards domestic demand, private consumption expenditure remained steady, government final consumption expenditure rose, while private investment dropped slightly.

The following highlights year-on-year comparisons of major segments of the local economy in the third quarter of 2015:

1. Total external merchandise trade (exports plus imports) continued to decline amid economic adjustment. Total value of merchandise exports increased by 18.6%;

meanwhile, total value of merchandise imports decreased by 4.8% as imports of consumer goods, which took up a significant share of the total, dropped by 6.4% upon declining visitor arrivals and visitor spending; nevertheless, imports of raw materials &

semi-manufactures increased by 24.3%. Total merchandise trade shrank by 2.6%, with a visible trade deficit of MOP18.28 billion.

2. Decline in exports of gaming and tourism services continued. With the gaming sector undergoing a profound adjustment, gross gaming revenue dropped by 34.3%, and together with the effect of inflation, exports of gaming services declined further by 37.4%. Visitor arrivals dropped by 1.8% and exports of other tourism services fell by 15.3%. Exports of services contracted further by 32.4% upon the simultaneous decline in exports of gaming and tourism services; meanwhile, imports of services dropped by 30.8%.

3. Full employment was maintained with inflation showing signs of slowing. Labour market remained stable. The unemployment rate, albeit rising slightly, remained extremely low at 1.9%; median monthly employment earnings increased by 15.4%.

High manpower demand drove non-resident workers up by 11.0% year-on-year to 180,751 at the end of the third quarter. The Composite Consumer Price Index (Composite CPI) rose by 4.5%, with price increase slowing and inflationary pressures easing. Private consumption expenditure remained stable while government final consumption expenditure expanded by 6.2%.

4. Private investment decreased. Due to a slowdown in construction of some large-scale

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tourism and entertainment facilities, as well as the relatively large base of comparison in the third quarter of 2014, private investment decreased by 1.6%, of which construction investment and equipment investment dropped by 0.7% and 8.2%

respectively. Public investment grew by 17.1%. Number of new incorporations decreased by 10.8% and the value of registered capital rose notably by 87.4%.

5. Property transactions went down with prices generally lower than the second quarter.

Number and value of building units purchased and sold decreased by 24.7% and 30.7% respectively quarter-to-quarter. The average transaction price of residential units dropped by 11.5% quarter-to-quarter.

6. The fiscal balance remained in surplus. Total government revenue and expenditure amounted to MOP27.81 billion and MOP21.17 billion respectively in the third quarter.

Fiscal surplus for the third quarter stood at MOP6.63 billion, down by 66.4%

year-on-year and 23.2% quarter-to-quarter owing to a 35.1% drop in tax revenue from gaming (74.5% of total revenue).

II. Major Segments of the Economy

A. External Merchandise Trade

Overview

External merchandise trade totalled MOP23.66 billion in the third quarter of 2015, down by 2.6% year-on-year. Merchandise imports decreased by 4.8% to MOP20.97 billion, while merchandise exports rose by 18.6% to MOP2.69 billion. The exports-imports ratio increased by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to 12.8%. Merchandise trade deficit narrowed from MOP19.77 billion in the third quarter of 2014 to MOP18.28 billion.

Total Exports

Merchandise exports increased by 18.6% year-on-year to MOP2.69 billion in the third quarter of 2015, of which domestic exports dropped by 19.8% to MOP413.9 million while re-exports rose by 29.9% to MOP2.28 billion.

Analysed by destination, value of merchandise exports to Vietnam (MOP7.8 million), Taiwan (MOP15.5 million), Singapore (MOP18.1 million), Japan (MOP68.5 million), Hong

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Kong (MOP1.57 billion) and Mainland China (MOP491.4 million) increased by 289.0%, 145.2%, 112.2%, 59.3%, 26.5% and 18.6% respectively; meanwhile, exports to the EU (MOP39.3 million) and the USA (MOP52.2 million) decreased by 36.7% and 34.7%

respectively.

Exports of electronic components, the leading export commodity, increased by 49.3%

to MOP280.0 million, accounting for 10.4% of total exports. Exports of clocks & watches, diamond & diamond jewellery, garment & textile products, copper & articles thereof and other products increased by 208.5%, 194.0%, 9.7%, 4.3% and 18.7% respectively;

Meanwhile, exports of tobacco & wine and machines, apparatus & parts decreased by 31.1% and 26.9% respectively.

Domestic Exports

Domestic exports amounted to MOP413.9 million (15.4% of total exports) in the third quarter, down by 19.8% year-on-year and 2.2% quarter-to-quarter. Hong Kong continued to be the largest market of Macao’s domestic exports (37.9% of total domestic exports), but the value of exports declined by 29.8% year-on-year; moreover, domestic exports to the USA and the EU decreased by 34.6% and 37.7% respectively. Analysed by principal commodities, exports of garment (3.5% of total domestic exports) decreased further by 76.9%, of which exports to the USA (21.2% of total domestic exports of garment) tumbled by 87.5% and exports to the EU (71.0%) dropped by 54.9%; meanwhile, exports of tobacco & wine (25.1% of total domestic exports) declined by 25.6% and exports of other products (71.4%) also dropped by 5.7%.

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Nevertheless, domestic exports to Mainland China rose by 15.2% to MOP80.2 million (19.4% of total domestic exports), of which tariff-free merchandise exports under the Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) increased by 36.8% to MOP19.7 million, consisting mainly of copper-clad boards (70.3% of total) and stamps (17.7%); the amount of tariff saved totalled MOP1.1 million.

In addition, results of the Industrial Exports Survey for the third quarter of 2015 indicated that the average length of time of orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers was 2.2 months, down by 11.8% from 2.5 months in the same quarter of 2014. Meanwhile, 5.2% of the enterprises expressed optimism about the domestic industrial exports in the coming six months, down by 15.2 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 24.1 percentage points year-on-year, with 0.3% anticipating a substantial increase and 4.9% expecting a modest rise. However, 34.6% expected less promising prospects of exports, up by 22.2 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 13.6 percentage points year-on-year; moreover, 59.2% expected the outlook of exports remained stagnant, down by 8.0 percentage points quarter-to-quarter but up by 9.4 percentage points year-on-year. The findings showed that the manufacturers were generally cautious about the outlook of exports.

Re-exports

Total value of re-exports rose by 29.9% to MOP2.28 billion (84.6% of total exports) in the third quarter of 2015. Hong Kong was the largest market of Macao’s re-exports (62.2%

of total), which was followed by Mainland China (18.1%). Value of re-exports to Hong Kong and Mainland China increased by 38.8% and 19.3% respectively. In terms of the types of commodities, re-exports of consumer goods (50.9% of total) and raw materials &

semi-manufactures (8.7%) increased by 77.8% and 55.1% respectively, whereas re-exports of other products (40.4%) declined by 5.5%.

Imports

Value of merchandise imports decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to MOP20.97 billion in the third quarter of 2015. Mainland China was the main supplier of goods imported to Macao and the value of imports rose by 6.1% to MOP7.70 billion (36.7% of total). As regards other places of origin, value of imports from Hong Kong (10.8%) and Taiwan (1.7%) expanded by 9.3% and 7.9% respectively, while imports from Switzerland (7.4%), the EU (21.8%), the USA (5.5%) and Japan (6.2%) dropped by 20.2%, 17.2%, 12.9% and 3.6%.

Regarding the types of commodities, imports of raw materials & semi-manufactures

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(13.7% of total) increased by 24.3%; however, imports of fuels & lubricants (8.9%), capital goods (15.4%) and consumer goods (62.0%) decreased by 15.6%, 10.7% and 6.4%

respectively.

Imports of consumer goods declined further, of which light passenger cars &

motorcycles (3.2% of total imports), handbags & wallets (3.1%), watches (7.3%), gold jewellery (9.5%), clothing & footwear (7.8%) and food & beverages (14.3%) dropped by 25.9%, 24.2%, 22.2%, 11.5%, 1.7% and 1.3% respectively.

B. Tourism, Gaming and MICE

Due to the continuous adjustment of the gaming and tourism sector, exports of services declined by 32.4%. Gross gaming revenue decreased with exports of gaming services dropping by 37.4% in real terms. Visitor arrivals went down and total spending of visitors declined by 19.5%; after removing the factor of tourist price decrease, exports of other tourism services decreased by 15.3% in real terms. Meanwhile, number of MICE events increased by 17.7% year-on-year, the number of participants and attendees rose by 40.8%.

Gaming

Gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP54.60 billion in the third quarter of 2015, down by 34.3% year-on-year. Gross revenue of game of chance, which took up 99.6% of the total, decreased by 34.4% to MOP54.37 billion. VIP Baccarat revenue tumbled by 38.0% to account for 53% of the gross revenue of game of chance. Gross revenue of

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pari-mutuels and lotteries dropped by 19.6% to MOP231.3 million.

Number of casinos remained unchanged at 35 in the third quarter, with 5,819 gaming tables, up by 2.1% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-to-quarter; number of slot machines totalled 14,213, up by 12.9% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.

Visitor Arrivals

Visitor arrivals decreased by 1.8% to 8,097,474 in the third quarter, owing to a 3.1%

drop in Mainland visitors (5,425,048). Mainland visitors travelling to Macao under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) decreased by 2.0% to 2,535,314, constituting 46.7% of the total visitors from Mainland China. Meanwhile, visitors from Hong Kong and Taiwan increased by 4.2% and 2.9% respectively. Average length of stay of visitors was 1.1 days, up by 0.1 day year-on-year. Same-day visitors accounted for 51.9% of the total, down by 1.8 percentage points quarter-to-quarter. Package tour visitors decreased by 22.5% to 2,445,641.

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Hotels

Hotels and guesthouses had 29,977 available guest rooms in the third quarter, an increase of 7.4%; five-star hotels accounted for 66.3% of the total supply. Number of guests checking into hotels and guesthouses increased by 1.0% to 2,780,019, constituting 67.2% of the total overnight visitors. The average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses decreased by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to 82.5%. The average length of stay of guests held stable at 1.5 nights, with five-star hotel guests staying the longest at 1.6 nights.

Visitor Spending

Total spending of visitors amounted to MOP12.47 billion in the third quarter, down by 19.5% from MOP15.49 billion in the same quarter of 2014. Per-capita spending of overnight visitors decreased by 23.9% to MOP2,519, while that of same-day visitors increased by 5.6% to MOP632.

Per-capita spending of visitors dropped by 18.0% to MOP1,540, a smaller decrease compared with the previous quarter. Mainland visitors spent an average of MOP1,776, down by 20.0%, with IVS visitors spending MOP2,057. Per-capita spending of visitors from Thailand (MOP1,076), Japan (MOP1,620), Singapore (MOP1,632), Taiwan (MOP1,402) and Hong Kong (MOP913) decreased by 26.3%, 17.1%, 15.3%, 15.2% and 0.7%

respectively. Visitors from the USA had relatively high per-capita spending among the long-haul visitors, at MOP1,353.

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Analysed by expenditure structure, visitors spent mainly on Shopping (44%), Accommodation (26%) and Food & Beverage (22%). Structure of shopping spending showed significant changes since the beginning of 2015, in which the share of luxury consumption such as Jewellery & Watches shrank notably and was overtaken by Local Food Products, Clothing, Cosmetics and Perfume. Compared with the second quarter, the share of Local Food Products rose to 33% while that of Handbags & Shoes dropped to 9%.

MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions)

A total of 213 MICE events were held in the third quarter, up by 32 year-on-year;

number of participants and attendees rose by 40.8% to 1,009,794 on account of a 42.9%

increase in exhibition attendees (993,848). Meanwhile, 184 meetings and conferences were held, drawing 15,946 participants.

C. Consumption and Prices

Private Consumption

Private consumption expenditure remained steady in real terms in the third quarter of 2015. Household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market increased by 0.1%

but that abroad dropped by 0.3%.

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Retail Sales

Value of retail sales amounted to MOP14.61 billion in the third quarter, down by 7.7%

year-on-year but up by 1.3% quarter-to-quarter. Value of retail sales of Watches, clocks &

jewellery (23.4% of total), Goods in department stores (15.1%), Leather goods (9.1%) and Motor vehicles (5.2%) decreased by 17.5%, 12.0%, 21.0% and 18.2% respectively year-on-year. Retail sales of Adults’ clothing saw satisfactory growth, rising by 12.1%

year-on-year and 16.0% quarter-to-quarter; value of retail sales of Goods in pharmacies dropped by 8.5% year-on-year but rose slightly by 2.3% quarter-to-quarter.

After removing the effect of prices, volume of retail sales decreased by 5.6%

year-on-year, with marked decrease being observed in the sales volume of Motor vehicles (-19.5%), Leather goods (-16.3%), Goods in department stores (-11.4%) and Watches, clocks & jewellery (-10.8%). Volume of retail sales increased slightly by 0.9%

quarter-to-quarter, of which sales volume of Adults’ clothing (+21.8%), and Watches, clocks & jewellery (+16.9%) rose notably, but that of Communication equipment dropped by 29.2%.

Prices

The average Composite CPI rose by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter. With the CPI growth decelerating, inflationary pressures eased slightly. Notable increase was observed in the price indices of Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+34.4%), Housing &

fuels (+7.3%) and Health (+6.2%). In addition, implicit deflator of GDP that measures changes in overall prices rose by 4.2% year-on-year.

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D. Employment

Demand for labour remained strong, leading to an increase in employment, non-resident workers and employment earnings. Economically active population (labour force) totalled 403,000 in the third quarter, with an employed population of 395,000, up by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively year-on-year. Employment in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming

& Other Services reached 95,000, of which 84,000 were working in Gaming & Junket Activities, accounting for 21.3% of the total; employment in Domestic Work and Public Administration & Social Security saw notable growth, at 9.7% and 18.5% respectively.

Non-resident workers rose by 11.0% year-on-year to 180,751 at the end of the third quarter, with 25.2% working in Construction and 26.1% in Hotels, Restaurants & Similar Activities.

Job market remained stable. The unemployment rate was 1.9%, up by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter; the underemployment rate was 0.5%. Total number of unemployed was about 7,600, with 14.6% being fresh labour force entrants searching for their first job. Analysed by the previous industry engaged of the unemployed, 35.9% had worked in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services and 18.5% in Hotels, Restaurants & Similar Activities. In terms of educational attainment, 34.3% had tertiary education; 27.1% had senior secondary education and 26.6% had junior secondary education.

Median monthly employment earnings of the employed held stable as the previous quarter at MOP15,000 in the third quarter, up by 15.4% year-on-year. Median earnings of

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the employed residents increased by 2.9% quarter-to-quarter, at MOP18,000. Analysed by industry, median employment earnings in Wholesale and Retail Trade logged the highest year-on-year increase of 16.5%. For Gaming & Junket Activities that accounted for the largest share of total employment, median employment earnings increased by 11.8%

year-on-year.

E. Investment

Investment in Construction and Equipment

In the third quarter of 2015, construction investment rose slightly by 0.6%

year-on-year but equipment investment decreased by 7.8% in real terms, causing overall investment to edge down by 0.4%. Investment by the private sector dropped by 1.6% but that by the public sector grew by 17.1%.

For the investment by the private sector, number of construction of new buildings and units increased by 17.4% and 2,993.4% respectively in the third quarter; meanwhile, number of building completions, units and gross floor area soared by 125.0%, 1,210.0%

and 1,315.6% respectively. As the major large-scale residential projects approached completion at the end of 2014 or early 2015, and the successive commencement of new large residential projects were unable to compensate the reduction in construction value, construction investment in residential buildings registered year-on-year decrease in the third quarter. In addition, construction of most major tourism and entertainment facilities slowed down and real estate developers’ margin declined. As a result, construction investment by the private sector dropped slightly by 0.7% in real terms in the third quarter,

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and equipment investment decreased by 8.2% in real terms.

As regards investment by the public sector, construction investment increased by 20.0% but equipment investment decreased by 2.4% in the third quarter.

Transactions on Real Estate

Real estate transactions declined once again in the third quarter, with 2,323 building units and parking spaces being purchased and sold at MOP12.49 billion, down by 24.7%

and 30.7% respectively quarter-to-quarter.

A total of 1,537 residential units (comprising 246 pre-sale units and 1,291 existing units) were purchased and sold at MOP8.62 billion in the third quarter, accounting for 66.2% and 69.0% of the respective total.

As regards status of the buyers, 2,224 units (95.7% of total) were purchased by Macao residents; value of transaction amounted to MOP11.85 billion, with its share in total value going down from 96.2% in the previous quarter to 94.8%. Meanwhile, 82 units were purchased by non-residents, and the value amounted to MOP478.6 million.

The average transaction price of residential units decreased by 11.5%

quarter-to-quarter to MOP84,342 per square metre of usable area in the third quarter. The average price of those in the Macao Peninsula decreased by 5.1% quarter-to-quarter to MOP80,486 per square metre, and the average price of those in Taipa decreased by 22.5% to MOP90,409 per square metre. The average price of office units dropped by

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13.0% quarter-to-quarter to MOP102,967 per square metre. The average price of industrial units declined by 9.1% quarter-to-quarter to MOP50,205 per square metre.

Business Investment

Number of new incorporations decreased by 10.8% to 1,226 in the third quarter of 2015; total value of registered capital rose substantially by 87.4% to MOP376.7 million.

Among the new incorporations, 36.5% were operating in Wholesale & Retail Trade, 24.6%

in Business Services and 14.8% in Construction. In terms of registered capital, Business Services predominated with 77.7% of the total, while Wholesale & Retail Trade and Construction accounted for 12.3% and 3.1% respectively. As regards origin of capital, capital from Mainland China shared 48.1% of the total at MOP181.3 million, and that from British Virgin Island and Macao took up 20.8% and 20.3% respectively.

Number of companies in dissolution totalled 150 in the third quarter, up by 40.2%

year-on-year, with 51 engaging in Wholesale & Retail Trade (34.0% of total), 43 in Business Services (28.7%), 12 in Real Estate (8.0%) and 9 in Construction (6.0%).

F. Public Accounts

In the third quarter of 2015, total government revenue decreased by 25.9% to MOP27.81 billion owing to a decrease in direct taxes, of which tax revenue from gaming dropped by 35.1% to MOP20.72 billion.

Meanwhile, total government expenditure rose by 18.9% to MOP21.17 billion, on

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account of a 21.0% increase in current transfer. Fiscal surplus stood at MOP6.63 billion in the third quarter, far lower than the MOP19.74 billion surplus in the same quarter of 2014.

G. Money and Finance

At the end of September 2015, narrow money supply M1 remained virtually the same compared with a year earlier, of which currency in circulation increased by 16.1% but demand deposits decreased by 3.3%. Meanwhile, broad money supply M2 (including M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities) dropped by 1.0%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the Macao pataca (MOP) in M1 increased by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year to 53.6%, and its share in M2 rose by 3.3 percentage points to 28.5%. The share of the Hong Kong dollar was 44.2% in M1 and 49.2% in M2.

Resident deposits dropped by 1.4% year-on-year to MOP470.62 billion, of which deposits in the MOP grew by 11.7% to MOP125.83 billion, while deposits in the Hong Kong dollar and other foreign currencies dropped by 1.7% and 12.8% respectively to MOP237.37 billion and MOP107.42 billion. Meanwhile, public sector deposits with the banking sector increased by 44.2% to MOP126.95 billion.

Domestic loans extended to the private sector rose by 18.7% year-on-year to MOP390.28 billion, of which outstanding value of mortgage loans extended to residents went up by 21.8% year-on-year to MOP296.12 billion. Within domestic loans to the private sector, the MOP accounted for 26.9%, valued at MOP105.04 billion, and the Hong Kong dollar took up 65.5%, valued at MOP255.48 billion.

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The loan-to-deposit ratio of the banking sector for the resident sector was 65.3%, up by 7.1 percentage points from a year earlier, while that for both the resident and non-resident sectors increased by 5.4 percentage points to 89.8%.

As the MOP is indirectly pegged to the US dollar, interest rates in Macao are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US. In the third quarter, the US Federal Reserve maintained the range for the Fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25%. Meanwhile, Macao’s savings deposit rate was held stable at 0.01%.

As the US dollar remained strong in the third quarter of 2015, the exchange rates of the MOP against major currencies increased. The average exchange rates of the MOP against the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar and the Malaysian ringgit went up by 22.7%, 21.4% and 20.8%. The effective exchange rate index for the MOP, a gauge of exchange rates of the MOP against currencies of Macao’s major trading partners, rose by 7.44 points year-on-year to 105.39.

H. Other Economic Indicators

Transport and Communications

In the third quarter of 2015, gross weight of seaborne containerized cargo (66,274 tonnes) and air cargo (7,445 tonnes) increased by 17.2% and 12.0% respectively, while gross weight of containerized cargo by land (7,986 tonnes) decreased by 15.6%.

As regards local transport, new registration of motor vehicles decreased by 11.2% in

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the third quarter, with that of motorcycles and cars falling by 9.0% and 13.7% respectively.

At the end of September 2015, number of licensed motor vehicles increased by 4.3% to 246,452, comprising 118,346 cars and 128,106 motorcycles.

At the end of September 2015, number of Internet subscribers went up by 10.2% to 325,920; mobile phone subscribers increased by 7.6% to 1,816,020; meanwhile, number of fixed telephone lines dropped by 4.1% to 148,307.

Water and Energy Consumption

Consumption of electricity increased by 2.3% to 1.53 billion kWh in the third quarter of 2015, and that of water rose by 1.2% to 22.6 million cubic meters. Consumption of liquid fuel (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil & diesel, and fuel oil) totalled 103.3 million litres, up by 13.6%; consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose by 2.6% to 9,583 tonnes;

consumption of natural gas totalled 440 thousand cubic meters.

III. Concluding Remarks

In the third quarter of 2015, the economy of Macao contracted by 24.2% year-on-year in real terms, a slowdown from the 26.4% drop in the second quarter. The decline was mainly due to the continuous decrease in exports of services. Amid economic adjustment, private consumption expenditure stayed stable while investment dropped modestly;

nonetheless, the employment situation was still favourable and the public accounts remained in surplus. Meanwhile, economic adjustment slightly pulled down the CPI growth, which is conducive to a sound and steady economic growth.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2015, domestic demand is expected to stay steady but may continue to decline; private consumption may see a slight increase;

government final consumption expenditure and public investment are expected to remain stable but private investment may decrease. As regards external demand, despite an increase in merchandise exports in November, exports of services is likely to drop further in the fourth quarter as visitor arrivals decreased in October and November while gross gaming revenue tumbled by 30.2% year-on-year. Taking into consideration these factors, the tourism and gaming industries will continue to undergo adjustment, and domestic demand may hardly reduce the magnitude of economic contraction. As a result, the economy of Macao is likely to continue its downward trend; nevertheless, as the economic adjustment started in the fourth quarter of 2014, the rate of economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 is expected to slow down.

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SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS

.. Not applicable r Revised figures

- Absolute value equals zero

# Confidential data

~ No figure provided

0^# Magnitude less than half of the unit employed p Provisional figures

@ Figures are subject to revision later on

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)

Note: Due to rounding, total may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.

Figures are subject to regular revisions when required.

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I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)

%

2014 2014 2015 2015 2015

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

USA

　Gross Domestic Product 2.2 1.5 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2

　Exports of goods 4.4 2.1 2.7 4.1 0.9 -4.8 -5.5 -7.7

　Imports of goods 3.1 -0.3 3.5 3.7 3.3 -1.9 -4.8^r -4.9

　Consumer Price Index 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.2 -0.1 - 0.1

　Unemployment rate 8.1 7.4 6.2 6.2 5.5 5.8 5.3 5.2

Euro area ^a

　Gross Domestic Product -0.9^r -0.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.3^r 1.6^r 1.6

　Exports of goods 7.6^r 1.2^r 2.0^r 2.6^r 4.1^r 5.6^r 8.2^r 4.4

　Imports of goods 1.7^r -2.8^r 0.5^r 0.9^r 0.1^r 1.8^r 3.9^r 0.7

　Consumer Price Index 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1

Germany

　Exports of goods 3.0^r -0.4^r 3.3^r 5.0^r 4.7^r 6.3^r 9.1^r 5.8

　Imports of goods -0.3^r -1.0^r 2.2^r 2.4^r 2.4^r 2.7^r 4.8^r 5.1

　Consumer Price Index 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 - 0.5 0.1

French

　Gross Domestic Product 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.1^r 0.1 0.9 1.1^r 1.2

　Exports of goods 3.9^r -1.6 0.2 -0.8^r 2.8 2.6^r 7.1^r 4.1

　Imports of goods 2.0^r -2.4 -0.7^r -0.3^r -0.9^r -0.2^r 1.8^r -0.9

　Consumer Price Index 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1

　Unemployment rate 9.8 10.3 10.3 9.9 10.8 10.9^r 10.1^r 10.2

United Kingdom

　Gross Domestic Product 1.2^r 2.2^r 2.9^r 2.9^r 3.0^r 2.7^r 2.4^r 2.3

　Exports of goods -1.3 0.6^r -3.5^r -6.9 0.9^r -2.2^r 1.4^r -3.1

　Imports of goods 2.3^r 2.6^r -0.6^r -1.2^r 2.2^r 2.2^r -0.8^r -1.7

　Consumer Price Index 2.8 2.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 - -

a Consists 19 member states since 2015.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Eurostat

Federal Statistical Office of Germany

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies of France; French Customs Office for National Statistics of United Kingdom

2012 2013 2014

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1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON) (Cont'd)

%

2014 2014 2015 2015 2015

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Mainland China

　Exports of goods 7.9 7.8 6.0 13.0 8.6 4.5^r -2.9^r -6.2

　Imports of goods 4.3 7.3 0.5 1.0 -1.9 -17.8^r -13.8^r -14.5

　Consumer Price Index ^a 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.4

Hong Kong

　Exports of goods 2.9 3.6 3.2 5.8 1.2 2.3 -1.9 -4.1

　Imports of goods 3.9 3.8 3.9 5.7 3.2 1.4 -3.2 -6.7

　Consumer Price Index 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.4 3.0 2.3

Taiwan

　Gross Domestic Product 2.1 2.2 3.9^r 4.3 3.6^r 4.0^r 0.6^r -0.6

　Exports of goods -2.3 1.4 2.7 6.6 0.4 -4.2 -9.8 -13.9

　Imports of goods -3.9 -0.2 1.5 7.5 -3.3 -15.0 -14.9 -19.4

　Consumer Price Index 1.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3

Japan

　Gross Domestic Product 1.7 1.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.9^r -0.8 1.0^r 1.0

　Exports of goods -2.7 9.5 4.8 3.2 9.1 9.0 6.7 3.7

　Imports of goods 3.8 14.9 5.7 2.4 1.2 -9.3 -5.1 -5.8

　Consumer Price Index - 0.3 2.8 3.4 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.2

Republic of Korea

　Exports of goods -1.3 2.1 2.3 3.6 0.9 -3.0 -7.2 -9.4

　Imports of goods -0.9 -0.8 1.9 5.4 -2.8 -15.5 -15.6 -18.4

　Consumer Price Index 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.7

Singapore

　Gross Domestic Product 3.4 4.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.7^r 2.0^r 1.9

　Exports of goods -0.9 0.6 1.1 -1.4 -3.8 -5.4 -8.7^r -8.0

　Imports of goods 3.2 -1.6 -0.6 -5.7 -6.0 -16.1 -13.0^r -9.1

　Consumer Price Index 4.6 2.4 1.0 1.0 - -0.3 -0.4 -0.6

a Accumulated year-on-year comparison.

Source : China National Bureau of Statistics

Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department

Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, Taiwan; Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan

National Statistics Office of Republic of Korea; Bank of Korea

2012 2013 2014

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2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (QUARTER-TO-QUARTER COMPARISON)

%

2014 2014 2015 2015 2015

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

USA

　Gross Domestic Product 2.2 1.5 2.4 4.3 2.1 0.6 3.9^r 2.1

　Exports of goods 4.4 2.1 2.7 1.2 -0.9 -6.5 0.5 -1.1

　Imports of goods 3.1 -0.3 3.5 -0.2 -0.1 -3.8 -0.5 -0.1

　Consumer Price Index 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 0.7 0.4

　Unemployment rate^a 8.1 7.4 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2

Japan

　Gross Domestic Product 1.7 1.6 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.2^r -0.2

　Exports of goods -3.0^r 9.6 4.6 4.2^r 5.9^r - -2.9^r 0.1

　Imports of goods 3.3 15.2 5.6 3.0^r 2.1^r -6.0^r -3.7 1.7

　Consumer Price Index - 0.3 2.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -

Hong Kong

　Exports of goods 2.9 3.6 3.2 2.0 -3.2 -0.6 -1.3 -

　Imports of goods 3.9 3.8 3.9 1.8 -0.4 -2.0 -2.5 -1.8

　Consumer Price Index 4.1 4.3 4.4 0.5 2.9 0.3 -0.6 -0.2

a After seasonal adjustment.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department

3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO

2014 2014 2015 2015 2015

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3^@

At current prices:

GDP (Million MOP) 343 499 409 959 443 298 108 682 105 116 91 901 88 233 85 795

GDP per capita ('000 MOP) 603.6 691.6 713.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Chain volume measures in chained (2013) dollars:

GDP (Million MOP) 370 476 409 959 408 509 99 022 94 528 82 797 77 485 75 047

Year-on-Year change in real terms (%)

GDP 9.2 10.7 -0.4 -2.3 -17.2 -24.5 -26.4 -24.2

Private consumption expenditure 8.7 6.6 5.9 7.7 4.6 6.7 2.0 0^#

In the domestic market 8.1 7.2 6.0 7.3 4.3 4.7 1.3 0.1

Abroad 11.6 3.5 6.0 11.9 6.6 10.6 7.2 -0.3

Government final consumption expenditure 6.2 5.1 7.1 8.0 5.9 6.8 5.7 6.2

Gross fixed capital formation 19.9 8.9 35.2 37.6 27.7 32.2 3.2 -0.4

Private sector 9.3 33.3 41.6 41.6 33.7 28.1 1.6 -1.6

Government 51.8 -47.9 -6.0 -2.7 7.3 208.7 36.0 17.1

Exports of goods 30.2 7.8 20.7 13.1 42.7 32.5 25.6 5.4

Exports of services 6.5 11.9 -6.3 -9.9 -26.0 -35.6 -35.9 -32.4

Imports of goods 12.4 19.7 16.7 14.2 15.3 10.4 1.3 -0.1

Imports of services 1.3 0.1 -13.8 -18.1 -26.5 -37.9 -35.5 -30.8

2014

2012

2012 2013

2013 2014

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN