MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

(1)

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

This is a joint publication of the Macao Economic Services (DSE), the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). DSE prepares the analysis of the World Economy and External Merchandise Trade, as well as data on tables I.1, I.2, II.7 and II.8. AMCM prepares the analysis of Money and Finance and data on tables VIII.1 to VIII.7. DSEC prepares the analysis and data on the remaining sections.

Further information can be obtained from the Documentation and Information Centre of DSEC.

ġ ġ

Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.

2

^{n d}

Quarter

2 0 1 4

(2)

Editor: DSEC

Macao, October 2014

Typesetting and design: DSEC Printing: DSEC

(3)

THE WORLD ECONOMY

(8)

白頁

(9)

Global economic recovery remained sluggish in the second quarter of 2014. Albeit the economic rebound in the US and mild pickup in exports in the Asian region, the Euro area posted only feeble growth and the tension between Europe and Russia might be influential to the global recovery. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2014 indicated that global growth could be weaker for longer, given the lack of robust momentum in advanced economies despite very low interest rates and the easing of other brakes to the recovery; meanwhile, the negative growth effects in emerging market economies could be more protracted; thus, downside risks remain a concern. The world economy is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2014, down by 0.3 percentage points from the April forecast; the growth projection for 2015 remains at 4.0%.

The US economy saw satisfactory growth in the second quarter, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 2.5% year-on-year and 4.2% quarter-to-quarter. The expansion was mainly spurred by the increase in private consumption expenditure and inventory, contributing 1.7 and 1.4 percentage points to growth when exports and fixed investment also contributed 1.3 percentage points each; however, rising imports tapered off 1.7 percentage points of growth. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 6.1% amid the economic rebound; the seasonal adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.2%.

The German and French economies slowed down again, and the Euro area posted only feeble growth; the second quarter GDP rising modestly by 0.7% year-on-year and zero growth quarter-to-quarter. Consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions, as well as exports contributed 0.2 percentage points each to growth; however, inventory and gross fixed capital formation dragged down the increase by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point respectively. The unemployment rate dropped to 11.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points quarter-to-quarter.

The UK^a economy saw favourable growth, while GDP for the second quarter increased by 3.2% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-to-quarter. Service and manufacturing sectors expanded continuously by 1.0% and 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, but construction sector stayed unchanged. Service sector was the main driver of growth, adding 0.8 percentage points, whereas manufacturing and construction sectors failed to contribute.

Given the economic upturn, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points quarter-to-quarter, at 6.4%.

Despite slow recovery in advanced economies, exports in Asian economies showed

a In UK, expenditure-based GDP for the second quarter is not released due de the revision of GDP-related data.

(10)

general improvement. The July WEO Update of IMF indicated that the ASEAN 5^b economies are projected to expand by 4.6% in 2014; the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan by 3.1%; China and India by 7.4% and 5.4% respectively.

Economic forecast for these economies is marked down compared with the April forecast, except India that is projected to stay unchanged.

In Japan, GDP for the second quarter decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 1.7%

quarter-to-quarter, after the record high increase in the first quarter. Negative impact of the consumption tax hike emerged as spending shrank rapidly; domestic demand dragged down economic growth by 2.8 percentage points, while exports failed to contribute as well.

Yet the unemployment rate was unaffected by the economic contraction and held stable at 3.7% quarter-to-quarter; the seasonal adjusted rate was 3.6%.

The Republic of Korea maintained steady growth, with the second quarter GDP rising by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-to-quarter. The main economic driver was exports that contributed 1.0 percentage point to growth whereas final consumption expenditure dwindled 0.1 percentage point. The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 3.7% amid stable economic growth.

In Mainland China, GDP for the second quarter expanded by 7.5% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter. In the first half year of 2014, value added of the above-scale industries rose by 8.8% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage point compared with the first quarter; fixed asset investment increased by 17.3% year-on-year, down by 0.3 percentage points. Retail of consumer goods rose by 12.1% year-on-year, up by 0.1 percentage point, of which sales of communication equipment increased by 22.1%, furniture by 14.9%, and construction & decoration materials by 14.8%. Total value of external trade for the first half year increased by 1.2% year-on-year and the trade surplus amounted to USD103.3 billion. Inflation rate was stable as Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter increased by 2.3%, for which CPI for June rose by 2.3% year-on-year.

The Hong Kong economy slowed down in the second quarter of 2014, expanding by 1.8% year-on-year but down by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, which was mainly weighed down by a decrease in visitor spending and moderation in domestic demand. Gross fixed capital formation shrank by 5.6% year-on-year, and private consumption expenditure weakened to rise marginally by 1.2%. Modest improvement in merchandise exports was insufficient to offset the decreasing exports of services and slowing domestic demand. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and the seasonal adjusted rate stood at 3.2%.

b Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

(11)

GDP of major economies (Year-on-year change)

-1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

USA Euro Area Japan Mainland

China

United Kingdom

Hong Kong

%

Q1/2014 Q2/2014

(12)

白頁

(13)

ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY

(14)

白頁

(15)

I. Overview

In the second quarter of 2014, economic growth of Macao, affected by the reversal in exports of gaming services, decelerated to 8.1% year-on-year in real terms, lower than the 12.4% rise in the first quarter. The impetus for economic growth shifted from exports of gaming services in the first quarter to investment and exports of other tourism services. In terms of external demand, total spending of visitors increased; however, decrease in exports of gaming services greatly dragged down the growth in exports of services. As regards domestic demand, gross fixed capital formation increased substantially to become the main driver for economic growth; private consumption expenditure grew amid stable employment conditions. In the first half year of 2014, the economy expanded by 10.2%

year-on-year.

The following highlights year-on-year comparisons of major segments of the local economy in the second quarter and the first half year of 2014:

1. Merchandise exports and imports increased. Despite stagnant domestic exports, robust growth of re-exports drove total value of merchandise exports up by 13.0% in the second quarter, of which exports of machines, apparatus & parts and clocks &

watches rose substantially by 34.9% and 1.7 times respectively. Total value of merchandise imports increased by 10.4%, with imports of consumer goods, which took up a significant share of the total, rising by 10.3%; imports of raw materials &

semi-manufactures and capital goods increased by 18.5% and 15.1% respectively, reflecting strong domestic demand. A visible trade deficit of MOP19.03 billion was recorded. For the first half year of 2014, total external trade increased by 13.2%;

merchandise exports and imports grew by 9.4% and 13.6% respectively, with the visible trade deficit amounting to MOP38.28 billion.

2. The tourism and gaming industry exhibited mixed performance. Visitor arrivals and total spending of visitors increased by 7.5% and 16.7% respectively in the second quarter; however, growth of the gaming industry showed signs of slowing down, with gross gaming revenue rising merely by 5.6%. After adjusting for price changes, exports of gaming services decreased by 0.5%, ending six consecutive quarters of increase, and lowered the growth in exports of services to 1.3%; meanwhile, imports of services declined by 11.1%. For the first half year, gross gaming revenue increased by 12.6%, visitor arrivals grew by 8.1%, and guests of the hotel sector rose by 1.4%, causing exports of services to expand by 6.6% in real terms; imports of services posted a decrease of 3.9% in real terms.

3. Unemployment went down while manpower and inflation shot up. The unemployment

(16)

rate stayed extremely low at 1.7% for a long time amid stable employment conditions;

median monthly employment earnings increased by 8.3%; non-resident workers rose by 28.1% year-on-year to 155,310 at the end of the second quarter owing to strong demand for human resources. Inflation sped up with the Composite Consumer Price Index (Composite CPI) rising by 6.2%, higher than the growth in the previous four quarters. Private consumption expenditure increased by 7.0% and government final consumption expenditure expanded by 4.8%. For the first half year of 2014, the Composite CPI grew by 6.1%; private consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure went up by 5.9% and 6.5% respectively.

4. Private investment increased substantially. With the commencement of construction for large-scale tourism and entertainment facilities, overall investment surged by 52.7% in the second quarter, of which investment by the private sector and the public sector rose by 56.4% and 9.6% respectively. Total construction investment expanded by 54.4%, with construction by the private sector and the public sector rising by 58.3%

and 10.4% respectively. Total equipment investment increased by 44.1%, in which investment of the private sector and the public sector rose by 46.9% and 4.0%

respectively. Number of new incorporations increased by 26.9%, and the value of registered capital went up by 5.6 times. Overall investment in the first half year of 2014 increased by 42.5%; number of new incorporations rose by 20.9% while the value of registered capital went up by 3.1 times.

5. Property market activity turned vigorous. Number and value of building units purchased and sold increased by 8.1% and 28.6% over the first quarter of 2014. The average transaction price of residential units went up by 25.4% quarter-to-quarter.

6. Government revenue and expenditure remained sound. Total government revenue increased by 5.0% to MOP41.30 billion in the second quarter, with tax revenue from gaming rising by 10.9% to MOP37.38 billion. Total expenditure increased by 49.0% to MOP15.95 billion on account of a 75.4% increase in current transfer. Fiscal surplus for the second quarter stood at MOP25.36 billion. For the first half year, public revenue and expenditure expanded by 13.0% and 34.8% respectively, resulting in a fiscal surplus of MOP60.44 billion.

II. Major Segments of the Economy

Note: Unless otherwise specified, the rates of change refer to year-on-year change in nominal terms.

A. External Merchandise Trade

(17)

Overview

External merchandise trade sustained growth, with the total trade value rising by 10.7% to MOP24.12 billion in the second quarter of 2014. Merchandise imports increased by 10.4% to MOP21.57 billion, and merchandise exports rose by 13.0% to MOP2.55 billion.

The exports-imports ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 11.8%.

Merchandise trade deficit widened from MOP17.29 billion in the second quarter of 2013 to MOP19.03 billion.

Total Exports

In the second quarter of 2014, value of merchandise exports increased by 13.0%

year-on-year to MOP2.55 billion on account of an increase in re-exports.

Analysed by destination, value of merchandise exports to Taiwan (MOP38.8 million), Hong Kong (MOP1.52 billion) and the USA (MOP78.0 million) increased by 433.1%, 29.2% and 4.7% respectively; meanwhile, exports to Vietnam (MOP2.3 million), the EU (MOP70.3 million), Mainland China (MOP403.7 million) and Japan (MOP41.2 million) decreased by 96.5%, 11.0%, 7.0% and 3.8% respectively.

Merchandise exports (Year-on-year change)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014

%

Total exports USA EU

As the major merchandise of exports, value of machines, apparatus & parts (MOP519.9 million) increased by 34.9% to take up 20.4% of the total exports. Besides, exports of clocks & watches, other products, diamond & diamond jewellery and copper &

articles thereof increased by 168.7%, 19.1%, 13.3% and 9.2% respectively; on the contrary, exports of electronic components, tobacco & wine and garment & textile products

(18)

dropped by 34.5%, 33.2% and 24.5% respectively.

Domestic Exports

Domestic exports amounted to MOP509.9 million (20.0% of total exports) in the second quarter, down by 7.4% year-on-year but up by 10.3% quarter-to-quarter. Hong Kong continued to be the largest market of Macao’s domestic exports (41.0% of total domestic exports), and the value of exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year; meanwhile, domestic exports to the USA and the EU declined by 0.9% and 13.2% respectively.

Analysed by principal commodity, exports of garment (12.6% of total domestic exports) declined further by 32.0%, of which exports to the USA (24.6% of total exports of garment) fell sharply by 48.0% and exports to the EU (49.8%) dropped by 17.7%; meanwhile, exports of tobacco & wine (21.7%) decreased significantly by 36.8% but that of other products (65.6%) increased by 19.2%.

Domestic exports to Mainland China increased by 4.4% to MOP68.8 million (13.5% of total), of which tariff-free merchandise exports under the Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) increased by 37.6% to MOP28.1 million, consisting mainly of copper-clad boards (65.1% of total) and stamps (20.5%); the amount of tariff saved totalled MOP1.7 million.

In addition, results of the Industrial Exports Survey for the second quarter of 2014 indicated that the average length of time of orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers stood at 2.4 months, up by 14.3% from 2.1 months in the same quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, 20.6% of the enterprises expressed optimism about the domestic industrial exports in the coming six months, down by 2.7 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 7.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 0.7% anticipating a substantial increase and 19.9% expecting a modest rise. However, 19.4% expected less promising prospects of exports, up by 4.8 percentage points quarter-to-quarter but down by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year; moreover, 60.0% expected the outlook of exports remained stagnant, down by 2.1 percentage points quarter-to-quarter but up by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year. The findings showed that the manufacturers were generally cautious about the outlook of exports.

Re-exports

Total value of re-exports rose by 19.7% to MOP2.04 billion (80.0% of total exports) in the second quarter of 2014. Hong Kong was the largest market of Macao’s re-exports (64.3% of total), which was followed by Mainland China (16.4%). Value of re-exports to Hong Kong increased by 33.9%, while that to Mainland China decreased by 9.0%. In

(19)

terms of the types of merchandise, re-exports of consumer goods (41.8% of total) and other products (52.2%) increased by 52.0% and 8.6% respectively, whereas re-exports of raw materials & semi-manufactures (6.0%) declined by 24.9%.

Imports

Value of merchandise imports increased by 10.4% year-on-year to MOP21.57 billion in the second quarter. Mainland China continued to be the main supplier of goods imported to Macao and the value of imports rose by 9.5% to MOP6.97 billion (32.3% of total). Value of imports from Switzerland (9.9%), the USA (5.3%), the EU (25.4%) and Japan (6.0%) expanded by 34.0%, 33.0%, 30.6% and 11.7% respectively; however, value of imports from Hong Kong (9.7%) and Taiwan (1.5%) decreased by 29.7% and 12.3%

respectively.

Regarding the types of merchandise, imports of raw materials & semi-manufactures (10.9% of total), capital goods (16.3%) and consumer goods (63.8%) increased by 18.5%, 15.1% and 10.3% respectively, while imports of fuels & lubricants (9.0%) decreased by 3.7%.

Growth rate of consumer goods, which accounted for the largest proportion (63.8%) of imports, eased from 21.3% in the first quarter to 10.3% in the second quarter, of which value of watches (9.8% of total imports) and gold jewellery (10.9%) increased by 41.6%

and 13.4% respectively, far lower than the 88.1% and 58.5% rise in the first quarter;

however, imports of light passenger cars & motorcycles (4.9%), food & beverages (12.9%) and clothing & footwear (5.5%) increased by 39.5%, 26.4% and 16.7% respectively, higher than the growth in the first quarter.

Merchandise imports and the main components (Year-on-year change)

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014

%

Total imports Consumer goods

Capital goods Raw materials and semi-manufactures

(20)

B. Tourism, Gaming and MICE

The gaming sector slackened notably compared with the first quarter of 2014, showing signs of slowing down, with exports of gaming services edging down by 0.5% in real terms. Nevertheless, sustained growth in visitor arrivals and per-capita spending of visitors drove total spending of visitors up by 16.7%, causing exports of services to rise slightly by 1.3%. Meanwhile, despite a 0.4% decrease in number of MICE events, the number of participants and attendees surged by 139.0% year-on-year.

Gaming

Gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP91.24 billion in the second quarter of 2014, up by 5.6% year-on-year. Gross revenue of game of chance increased by 5.5% to MOP90.89 billion (99.6% of total). The mass market segment fared well; however, VIP Baccarat revenue decreased by 5.8%, with its share in gross revenue of game of chance dropping to around 60%. Gross revenue of pari-mutuels and lotteries grew by 36.5% to MOP348.9 million. For the first half year of 2014, gross gaming revenue went up by 12.6%

year-on-year to MOP193.73 billion.

Number of casinos remained unchanged at 35 in the second quarter, with 5,710 gaming tables, down by 0.6%. Number of slot machines continued to decrease, down by 15.8% to 12,895.

Gross gaming revenue

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 Billion MOP

0 5 10 15 20 25

%

Gross gaming revenue Year-on-year change

(21)

Visitor Arrivals

The tourism industry performed well. Visitor arrivals increased by 7.5% to 7,593,681 in the second quarter, attributable to the rise in visitors from Mainland China at 5,040,843, with 2,106,846 travelling to Macao under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), up by 16.0%.

Visitors from Japan, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Australia and the USA registered year-on-year increase, whereas those from Malaysia, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom decreased. Average length of stay of visitors was 1.0 day, same as that in the second quarter of 2013. Same-day visitors accounted for 53.7% of the total, up slightly by 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter. Visitor arrivals in package tour increased by 21.2% to 2,817,446.

For the first half year of 2014, visitor arrivals increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 15,283,847; visitor arrivals in package tours rose by 16.2% to 5,387,659.

Principal visitor markets

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 Million

Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Republic of Korea

Hotels

Hotels and guesthouses had 27,892 available guest rooms in the second quarter, a decrease of 0.7%; five-star hotels accounted for 65.9% of the total supply. Number of guests checking into hotels and guesthouses decreased by 2.2% to 2,646,570, constituting 70.7% of the total overnight visitors. Despite a slight decrease in number of guests, the average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses increased by 5.1 percentage points year-on-year to 85.1%. Furthermore, the average length of stay of guests held stable at 1.4 nights, with those of the five-star hotels staying the longest at 1.6 nights. All of the above factors contributed to the sustained development of the hotel

(22)

industry.

For the first half year of 2014, guests of the hotel sector increased by 1.4%

year-on-year to 5,307,746, accounting for 70.2% of the total overnight visitors. The average occupancy rate grew by 6.0 percentage points to 85.9%. The average length of stay of guests held stable at 1.4 nights.

Visitor Spending

Total spending of visitors amounted to MOP16.26 billion in the second quarter, up by 16.7% from MOP13.94 billion in the same quarter of 2013, higher than the 10.1% rise in the first quarter. Per-capita spending of overnight visitors increased by 15.3% to MOP3,915, but that of same-day visitors decreased by 0.6% to MOP610.

Per-capita spending of visitors increased by 8.5% to MOP2,141, higher than the 1.4%

rise in the previous quarter. Mainland visitors spent an average of MOP2,659, and spending of those travelling under IVS was MOP2,973; per-capita spending of visitors from Japan registered the highest growth of 41.4%, at MOP2,029, while that of visitors from Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong amounted to MOP1,866, MOP1,606 and MOP881 respectively. Visitors from Australia had relatively high per-capita spending among the long-haul visitors, at MOP1,609.

Analysed by expenditure structure, visitors spent mainly on Shopping (49%), Accommodation (26%) and Food & Beverage (19%). Structure of shopping spending showed significant changes, in which the share of Jewellery & Watches decreased from 27% in the first quarter to 18% in the second quarter, while that of Clothing, Handbags &

Shoes and Cosmetics & Perfume increased from 15%, 16% and 11% to 20%, 19% and 14% respectively.

(23)

Per-capita spending of visitors from selected markets

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 MOP

Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore Japan

MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions)

A total of 227 MICE events were held in the second quarter, down by 1 year-on-year;

however, number of participants and attendees soared by 139.0% to 522,285 due to a 157.5% surge in exhibition attendees, at 500,496. Meanwhile, 209 meetings and conferences were held, drawing 21,789 participants.

For the first half year, a total of 503 MICE events were held, up by 45 year-on-year;

total number of participants and attendees increased by 95.8% to 826,557.

C. Consumption and Prices

Private Consumption

Private consumption expenditure expanded by 7.0% in real terms, higher than the 4.7% rise in the first quarter of 2014. Household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market increased by 7.3% and that abroad went up by 6.6%. Private consumption expenditure for the first half year of 2014 registered an increase of 5.9%.

Retail Sales

Value of retail sales amounted to MOP16.37 billion in the second quarter, up by 3.1%

year-on-year but down by 10.9% quarter-to-quarter. Value of retail sales of Goods in department stores (16.6% of total), Leather goods (10.4%) and Adults’ clothing (10.3%) increased by 16.2%, 4.9% and 24.7% respectively year-on-year, while that of Watches,

(24)

clocks & jewellery (25.7%) decreased by 21.9%. Total value of retail sales for the first half year of 2014 rose by 9.4% year-on-year to MOP34.74 billion, of which sales of Watches, clocks & jewellery topped at MOP9.58 billion.

After removing the effect of prices, volume of retail sales increased by 4.1%

year-on-year in the second quarter, with marked increase being observed in the sales volume of Adults’ clothing (+22.7%), Motor vehicles (+20.4%), Goods in department stores (+14.3%) and Communication equipment (+9.7%). Volume of retail sales decreased by 11.5% quarter-to-quarter, of which sales volume of Watches, clocks & jewellery and Goods in department stores fell notably by 24.1% and 14.7% respectively, but that of Motor vehicles and Automotive fuels went up by 7.6% and 4.5% respectively. For the first half year, volume of retail sales increased by 11.1% year-on-year, with the sales volume of Adults’ clothing rising the most by 20.2%.

Value of selected retail sales

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 MOP million

Adults' clothing Motor vehicles

Leather goods Goods in department stores

Watches, clocks & jewellery

Prices

Inflationary pressures continued to build up. The average Composite CPI rose by 6.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, higher than the growth in the previous four quarters. Notable increase was observed in the price indices of Housing & fuels (+11.9%), Recreation and culture (+6.1%) and Food & non-alcoholic beverages (+5.9%); meanwhile, index of Communication rebounded slightly. In addition, implicit deflator of GDP that measures changes in overall prices rose by 9.8% year-on-year.

For the first half year of 2014, the average Composite CPI increased by 6.1%

year-on-year, with notable increase being observed in the price indices of Housing & fuels

(25)

(+11.9%) and Household goods & furnishings (+6.4%); however, price index of Communication decreased by 0.5%. Implicit deflator of GDP rose by 9.1% in the first half year.

Composite CPI and Implicit Deflator of GDP (Year-on-year change)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014

%

Composite CPI Implicit Deflator of GDP

D. Employment

Intense demand for manpower drove up employment, non-resident workers and employment earnings. Economically active population (labour force) totalled 390,000 in the second quarter, with an employed population of 384,000, up by 7.2% and 7.3%

respectively year-on-year. Employment in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services reached 90,000, of which 80,000 were working in the Gaming Sector, accounting for 20.9% of the total; employment in Construction and Transport, Storage and Communications saw notable growth, at 58.4% and 19.3% respectively. Non-resident workers rose by 28.1% year-on-year to 155,310 at the end of the second quarter, with 25.9% working in Hotels & Restaurants and 24.9% in Construction.

Job market remained stable. The unemployment rate fell to 1.7%, down by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year but held stable as the previous quarter; the underemployment rate was 0.4%. Total number of unemployed was about 6,500, with 15.0% being fresh labour force entrants searching for their first job. Analysed by the previous industry engaged, 32.4% had worked in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services and 22.1% in Wholesale and Retail Trade. In terms of educational attainment, 33.6% had tertiary education; 24.5% had senior secondary education and 22.2% had junior secondary education.

(26)

Median monthly employment earnings of the employed stood at MOP13,000 in the second quarter, up by 8.3% year-on-year but stayed unchanged from the previous quarter.

Median earnings of the employed residents held stable as the previous quarter, at MOP15,000. Analysed by industry, median employment earnings in the Construction Sector logged the highest year-on-year increase of 19.7%. For the Gaming Sector that accounted for the largest share of total employment, median employment earnings stayed unchanged year-on-year.

Employed population and unemployment rate

350 360 370 380 390

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 Thousand persons

1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

%

Employed population Unemployment rate

E. Investment

Investment in Construction and Equipment

In the second quarter of 2014, construction and equipment investment increased by 54.4% and 44.1% year-on-year in real terms, causing overall investment to expand by 52.7%, making it the major driving force for economic growth. Investment by the private sector and the public sector grew by 56.4% and 9.6% respectively. For the first half year, overall investment increased by 42.5%, with construction and equipment investment rising by 44.8% and 31.5% respectively; investment by the private sector increased by 48.8%

but that by the public sector decreased by 21.2%.

For the investment by the private sector, number of construction of new buildings, units and gross floor area decreased significantly by 47.1%, 90.5% and 93.9% respectively in the second quarter; meanwhile, number of building completions, units and area soared by 1.1 times, 1.8 times and 2.1 times respectively. Due to the commencement of construction for large-scale tourism facilities, together with increase in investment in

(27)

building construction and real estate developers’ margin, construction investment by the private sector expanded by 58.3% in real terms in the second quarter; meanwhile, equipment investment also increased by 46.9% in real terms. For the first half year, total number of construction of new buildings and area increased by 25.9% and 103.4%

respectively; number of building completions and units also went up by 20.0% and 101.6%

respectively. Construction and equipment investment by the private sector increased by 52.3% and 32.9% respectively.

As regards investment by the public sector, construction and equipment investment increased by 10.4% and 4.0% respectively in the second quarter.

Gross floor area of buildings started and completed

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 Thousand m²

Buildings started Buildings completed

Transactions on Real Estate

Property transactions were more active compared with the first quarter of 2014, with number of building units purchased and sold in the second quarter rising by 8.1%

quarter-to-quarter to 4,158; total value amounted to MOP28.97 billion, up by 28.6%

quarter-to-quarter. For the first half year of 2014, a total of 8,004 building units were purchased and sold at MOP51.48 billion.

A total of 2,462 residential units (comprising 587 pre-sale units and 1,875 existing units) were purchased and sold at MOP17.62 billion in the second quarter, accounting for 59.2% and 60.8% of the respective total.

As regards status of the buyers, 3,782 units (91.0% of total) were purchased by Macao residents; value of transaction amounted to MOP26.65 billion, with its share in total

(28)

value going down from 92.6% in the previous quarter to 92.0%. Meanwhile, 343 units were purchased by non-residents, with the total value amounting to MOP1.96 billion. For the first half year, number of units purchased by resident buyers (7,438) and the value of transaction (MOP47.50 billion) accounted for 92.9% and 92.3% of the respective total;

number of units purchased by non-resident buyers totalled 498 and the value of transaction amounted to MOP3.45 billion.

Real estate prices continued to rise. The average transaction price of residential units increased by 25.4% quarter-to-quarter to MOP111,542 per square metre of usable area in the second quarter. The average price of those in the Macao Peninsula increased by 35.6% quarter-to-quarter to MOP112,009 per square metre, and the average price of those in Taipa went up by 5.5% to MOP105,645 per square metre. The average price of office units increased by 5.1% quarter-to-quarter to MOP119,576 per square metre. The average price of industrial units rose by 25.7% quarter-to-quarter to MOP58,555 per square metre.

Total number and value of building units purchased and sold

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 MOP billion

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Number

Number of building units transacted Value of building units transacted

Business Investment

Number of new incorporations increased by 26.9% to 1,454 in the second quarter of 2014; total value of registered capital soared by 5.6 times to MOP1.14 billion. Among the new incorporations, 37.4% were operating in Wholesale & Retail Trade, 21.7% in Business Services and 14.2% in Construction. In terms of registered capital, Wholesale & Retail Trade predominated with 6.8% of the total, while Transport, Storage and Communications and Business Services accounted for 5.3% and 2.2% respectively. As regards origin of capital, capital from Mainland China shared 79.1% of the total at MOP902.2 million, and

(29)

that from Macao and Hong Kong took up 18.6% and 1.2% respectively. For the first half year, total number of new incorporations increased by 20.9% to 2,580 and the registered capital increased by 3.1 times to MOP1.33 billion.

Number of companies in dissolution was 130 in the second quarter, down by 9.7%

year-on-year, with 40 engaging in Wholesale & Retail Trade (30.8% of total), 27 in Construction (20.8%), 21 in Business Services (16.2%) and 18 in Real Estate (13.8%).

Total number of companies in dissolution for the first half year increased by 4.4%

year-on-year to 285.

F. Public Accounts

In the second quarter of 2014, total government revenue expanded by 5.0% to MOP41.30 billion owing to an increase in direct taxes, of which tax revenue from gaming rose by 10.9% to MOP37.38 billion.

Meanwhile, total government expenditure increased by 49.0% to MOP15.95 billion, on account of a 75.4% increase in current transfer due to the allocation of funds to Provident Fund Individual Accounts and the transfers to Social Security Fund. Fiscal surplus stood at MOP25.36 billion in the second quarter, lower than the MOP28.63 billion surplus in the same quarter of 2013.

For the first half year of 2014, total government revenue amounted to MOP83.45 billion, up by 13.0% year-on-year, with gaming tax revenue rising by 16.1% to MOP75.35 billion; total government expenditure increased by 34.8% to MOP23.01 billion; fiscal surplus amounted to MOP60.44 billion.

Total government revenue and expenditure

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 MOP billion

Total revenue Total expenditure Fiscal surplus

(30)

G. Money and Finance

At the end of June 2014, narrow money supply M1 went up by 14.4% year-on-year, of which currency in circulation increased by 16.6% and demand deposits rose by 14.0%.

Meanwhile, broad money supply M2 (including M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities) swelled by 22.0%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the Macao pataca (MOP) in M1 increased by 3.1 percentage points to 46.2%, and its share in M2 dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 24.0%. The share of the Hong Kong dollar was 51.5% in M1 and 49.4% in M2.

Resident deposits rose by 22.1% year-on-year to MOP473.90 billion, of which deposits in the MOP, the Hong Kong dollar and other foreign currencies grew by 19.3%, 12.3% and 49.1% respectively to MOP106.48 billion, MOP238.67 billion and MOP128.75 billion. Meanwhile, public sector deposits in banks increased by 55.2% to MOP88.04 billion.

Domestic loans extended to the private sector rose by 36.3% year-on-year to MOP308.53 billion, of which outstanding value of mortgage loans extended to residents went up by 31.4% year-on-year to MOP226.16 billion. Within the domestic loans to the private sector, the MOP accounted for 28.0%, valued at MOP86.39 billion, and the Hong Kong dollar took up 63.7%, valued at MOP196.38 billion.

Resident deposits and loans

0 100 200 300 400 500

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2013 2014 MOP billion (value at

the end of the period)

Resident deposits Mortgage loans to residents

Other loans to the private sector

The loan-to-deposit ratio for the resident sector at the end of June was 54.9%, up by 4.0 percentage points from a year earlier, while that for both the resident and non-resident

(31)

sectors increased by 0.5 percentage points to 81.9%.

As the MOP is indirectly pegged to the US dollar, interest rates in Macao are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US. In the second quarter, the US Federal Reserve maintained the range for the Fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25%. Meanwhile, Macao’s savings deposit rate was held stable at 0.01%.

The changes in the exchange rates of the MOP basically reflect the changes in those of the US dollar. In the second quarter of 2014, the exchange rates of the MOP exhibited a mixed performance against major currencies. The average exchange rates of the MOP against the British pound, the Korean won and the Swiss franc decreased by 9.5%, 8.9%

and 5.9% respectively year-on-year, whereas the respective rates against the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar and the Malaysian ringgit increased by 6.2%, 6.0% and 5.3%.

The effective exchange rate index for the MOP, a gauge of exchange rates of the MOP against currencies of Macao’s major trading partners, dropped by 0.83 points to 97.27.

H. Other Economic Indicators

Transport and Communications

In the second quarter of 2014, containerized cargo by land (7,096 tonnes), seaborne containerized cargo (65,876 tonnes) and air cargo (6,791 tonnes) increased by 8.4%, 49.8% and 4.2% respectively. For the first half year, containerized cargo by land, seaborne containerized cargo and air cargo increased by 9.9%, 39.8% and 3.7% year-on-year.

As regards local transport, new registration of motor vehicles rose by 17.7% in the second quarter; new registration of motorcycles and cars increased by 26.8% and 10.7%

respectively. For the first half year of 2014, new registration of vehicles increased by 9.2%, with that of motorcycles rising by 23.7% but that of cars falling by 1.3%. At the end of June 2014, number of licensed motor vehicles increased by 5.3% to 232,586, comprising 111,701 cars and 120,885 motorcycles.

At the end of June, number of Internet subscribers went up by 18.2% to 284,830;

mobile phone users increased by 10.2% to 1,688,231; fixed-line telephone users dropped by 2.6% to 156,169.

Water and Energy Consumption

Consumption of electricity increased by 5.5% to 1.22 billion kWh in the second quarter of 2014, and that of water rose by 5.6% to 19.9 million cubic meters. Consumption of liquid

(32)

fuel (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil & diesel, and fuel oil) totalled 68.4 million litres;

consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) edged up by 0.2% to 10,654 tonnes, consumption of natural gas totalled 20.4 million cubic meters. For the first half year, consumption of electricity increased by 3.2% to 2.09 billion kWh and that of water rose by 6.7% to 39.2 million cubic meters; consumption of liquid fuel was 127.1 million litres, consumption of LPG went up by 3.0% to 23,731 tonnes and that of natural gas totalled 20.7 million cubic meters.

III. Concluding Remarks

In the second quarter of 2014, the economy expanded by 8.1% year-on-year in real terms; the second quarter growth was attributable to the increase in investment and exports of other tourism services. For the first half year of 2014, the economy increased by 10.2% year-on-year.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, domestic demand is expected to expand further;

private consumption expenditure is likely to register steady growth upon increase in total employment and working income; private investment is expected to sustain continuous growth with the construction of major tourism and gaming facilities. As regards external demand, although merchandise exports and visitor arrivals posted increase in July and August, gross gaming revenue decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, coupled with deceleration in total visitors spending, exports of services is likely to see negative growth in the third quarter. Taking into consideration these factors, as tourism and gaming are the leading industries of the local economy, the expanding domestic demand maybe unable to compensate the effect triggered by the declining exports of services; therefore, economic growth for the third quarter is projected to stay level year-on-year, even negative growth is also probable.

(33)

SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS

.. Not applicable

r Revised figures

- Absolute value equals zero

# Confidential data

~ No figure provided

0^# Magnitude less than half of the unit employed p Provisional figures

@ Figures are subject to revision later on

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)

Note: Due to rounding, total may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.

Figures are subject to regular revisions when required.

(34)

白頁

(35)

I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)

%

2013 2013 2013 2014 2014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

USA

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.6^r 2.3^r 2.2^r 1.8^r 2.3^r 3.1^r 1.9^r 2.5

ˢExports of goods 15.8 4.4 2.2 1.6 2.7^r 4.0^r 2.5^r 3.3

ˢImports of goods 15.4 3.1^r -0.4^r -1.3 1.6^r 1.0 1.9^r 4.5

ˢConsumer Price Index 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 2.1

ˢUnemployment rate 8.9 8.1 7.4 7.4 7.3 6.7 6.9 6.1

Euro area ^a

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.0^r 0.7

ˢExports of goods 13.0 7.6 1.0 1.8 0.2^r 1.1^r 1.2^r 0.6

ˢImports of goods 13.3 1.8^r -3.1^r -3.0^r -1.8^r -2.2^r 0.2^r -

Germany

ˢGross Domestic Product 3.6^r 0.4^r 0.1^r 0.5^r 0.8^r 1.0^r 2.5 0.8

ˢExports of goods 11.5 3.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.8 1.9 3.1 1.7

ˢImports of goods 13.2 0.4 -1.1 -0.1 -0.5 - 4.4 0.8

French

ˢGross Domestic Product 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1

ˢExports of goods 9.1 3.9^r -1.6 -0.5^r -2.4 -2.1^r 0.4^r -1.4

ˢImports of goods 13.1^r 1.8^r -2.3^r -2.6^r -2.0^r -1.5 -0.9^r -1.2

ˢUnemployment rate 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.0^r 9.7^r 10.4^r 10.6^r 9.9

United Kingdom

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.1 0.3 1.7 1.8^r 1.8 2.7 3.0^r 3.2

ˢExports of goods 12.5 0.7 1.4 6.5^r -0.4^r -0.1^r -6.0^r -9.3

ˢImports of goods 9.5 2.7 0.9^r 2.1^r 2.8^r -1.3^r -4.0^r -5.2

a Consists 17 member states since 2011.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Eurostat

Federal Statistical Office of Germany

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies of France; French Customs Office for National Statistics of United Kingdom

2011 2012 2013

(36)

I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON) (Cont'd)

%

2013 2013 2013 2014 2014

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Mainland China

ˢExports of goods 20.3 7.9 7.8^r 3.8 3.8^r 7.3^r -3.4 5.0

ˢImports of goods 25.0 4.3 7.3 4.8 8.5 7.2 1.6^r 1.5

ˢConsumer Price Index ^a 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3

Hong Kong

ˢGross Domestic Product 4.9 1.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6^r 1.8

ˢExports of goods 10.1 2.9 3.6 2.4 3.3 4.8 0.7 4.8

ˢImports of goods 11.9 3.9 3.8 3.5 2.6 4.3 2.1 4.5

Taiwan

ˢExports of goods 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.4 -0.8 1.8 1.0 2.9

ˢImports of goods 12.0 -3.9 -0.2 -3.6 -3.4 2.1 -1.6 3.8

ˢConsumer Price Index 1.4 1.9 0.8 0.8 - 0.6 0.8 1.6

Japan

ˢGross Domestic Product -0.5 1.5^r 1.5^r 1.2^r 2.3^r 2.5 3.0 -0.1

ˢExports of goods -2.7 -2.7 9.5 7.0 12.7 17.4 6.6 0.1

ˢImports of goods 12.1 3.8 14.9 10.3 17.5 24.1 17.6 2.6

ˢConsumer Price Index -0.3 - 0.3 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 3.6

Republic of Korea

ˢExports of goods 19.0 -1.3 2.1 0.7 2.8 4.7 1.7 3.3

ˢImports of goods 23.3 -0.9 -0.8 -2.8 0.3 2.5 2.0^r 3.2

Singapore

ˢExports of goods 7.5 -0.9 0.6 -0.2 5.8 6.0 7.6 2.7

ˢImports of goods 8.6 3.2 -1.6 -4.0 5.9 1.4 6.8 3.0

ˢUnemployment rate 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.9^r 2.6

a Accumulated year-on-year comparison.

Source : China National Bureau of Statistics

Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department

Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, Taiwan; Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan

National Statistics Office of Republic of Korea; Bank of Korea

2011 2012 2013

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN