MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

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MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

This is a joint publication of the Macao Economic Services (DSE), the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). DSE prepares the analysis of the World Economy and External Merchandise Trade, as well as data on tables I.1, I.2, II.7 and II.8. AMCM prepares the analysis of Money and Finance and data on tables VIII.1 to VIII.7. DSEC prepares the analysis and data on the remaining sections.

Further information can be obtained from the Documentation and Information Centre of DSEC.

Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.

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Editor: DSEC Macao, October 2018

Typesetting and design: DSEC Printing: DSEC

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THE WORLD ECONOMY

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In the second quarter of 2018, the global economy maintained positive growth momentum, but encountered increasing risks and difficulties due to rising inflation, slower economic growth and the start of monetary policy tightening cycle in the major economies.

At the same time, the recovery of the global economy was hindered by the escalating trade tensions between regions caused by trade protectionism. Moreover, the Sino-US trade talks following their trade disputes are of concern; if the situation deteriorates or expands, it will be a significant blow to global trade and economy, including direct impacts on resource allocation and productivity, as well as growing uncertainty and a shock to investment. In addition, factors such as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the US sanctions on Iran and Turkey’s currency crisis have added vulnerability to the global economy.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July 2018 maintained the projections of the global economy at 3.9% for both 2018 and 2019, but indicated that the expansion is becoming less even and risks to the outlook are mounting. For some major economies, the expansion rates have reached a peak and growth has become less synchronized. Growth projections have been revised down for the Euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom as economic activity in early 2018 was weaker than expected. Among emerging markets and developing economies, growth prospects are also becoming more uneven, amid rising oil prices which adversely affected domestic demand, heightened trade tensions, and market pressures on the currencies of some economies with weaker fundamentals. Growth projections have been revised down for Argentina, Brazil and India, while the outlook for some oil exporters has strengthened.

The US economy accelerated, with the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising by 2.9% year-on-year and 4.2% quarter-to-quarter. Private consumption expenditure added 2.6 percentage points to economic growth and both fixed investment and exports contributed 1.1 percentage points. Government expenditure added 0.4 percentage points to the growth. Economic development was steady and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 3.8%; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 3.9%.

The economy of the Euro area continued to grow. The GDP of the Euro area in the second quarter expanded by 2.1% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-to-quarter, with the economic growth of Germany recovering by 2.3% year-on-year, while that of France slowing to 1.7%. Gross fixed capital formation and exports of the Euro area added 0.3 percentage points each to the increase. Final consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions and government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.1 percentage point each. Employment situation improved, with the unemployment rate

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dropping by 0.7 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 8.2%.

The UK economy remained stable, with the GDP in the second quarter growing by 1.3% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-to-quarter. Gross capital formation and service industry contributed 0.9 and 0.4 percentage points to the increase respectively, and household and government final consumption expenditure drove up the growth by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively; meanwhile, net exports dragged down the growth by 0.8 percentage points. Economic growth remained modest, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter to 4.0%.

Economies in the Asian region showed sustained growth. The WEO Update of IMF in July 2018 indicated that the projected growth rates for China, India and the ASEAN-5 economies^a in 2018 were 6.6%, 7.3% and 5.3% respectively. Growth projections for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been revised up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5% as compared to the projections in April 2018.

The economy of Japan recovered, with the annualised growth rate of the second-quarter GDP rising by 3.0% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-to-quarter Domestic demand improved, with private demand contributing 0.8 percentage points to the growth.

Investment of enterprises increased, with fixed capital formation driving up the growth by 0.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, net exports of goods and services dragged down the growth by 0.1 percentage point. Employment situation was stable, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 2.5%; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%.

The second-quarter GDP of the Republic of Korea increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-to-quarter. Exports and final consumption expenditure added 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to the growth respectively, while fixed capital formation dragged down the growth by 0.8 percentage points. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter to 3.9% amid continued economic growth.

The economy of Mainland China maintained rapid growth, with the GDP for the second quarter expanding by 6.7% year-on-year and 6.8% for the first half year of 2018. In the first half year of 2018, value added of the above-scale industries grew by 6.7%

year-on-year in real terms; fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) rose by 6.0%

year-on-year; total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 9.4%, with sales of cosmetics, daily necessities, petroleum & related products and household appliances &

audio-visual equipment rising by 14.2%, 12.6%, 11.9% and 10.6% respectively. As

a Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

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regards external trade, total value of external trade for the first half year of 2018 grew by 7.9% year-on-year. Inflation rose, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first half year of 2018 increasing by 2.0% year-on-year.

The Hong Kong economy showed sustained growth in the second quarter, rising by 3.5% year-on-year yet declining by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter. Domestic demand stayed sound. Private consumption expenditure and government consumption expenditure increased by 6.1% and 4.4% respectively year-on-year, and gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.4%. Exports of goods and services continued to strengthen, up by 4.6% and 6.1% respectively year-on-year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched down to 2.8%.

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ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY

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I. Overview

In the second quarter of 2018, the economy of Macao expanded by 6.0%

year-on-year in real terms, lower than the 9.2% growth in the previous quarter, on account of a smaller increase in exports of services and a notable decline in private investment.

For external demand, exports of services rose by 13.0% year-on-year, of which exports of gaming services and exports of other tourism services grew by 13.7% and 13.0%

respectively; exports of goods went up by 30.0%. Meanwhile, domestic demand slowed down owing to an 11.9% decrease in gross fixed capital formation, whereas private consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure went up by 5.3%

and 5.1% respectively year-on-year. For the first half year of 2018, the economy grew by 7.6% year-on-year in real terms.

The following highlights year-on-year comparisons of major segments of the local economy in the second quarter and the first half year of 2018:

1. Total external merchandise trade (exports plus imports) increased by 22.8%, with total merchandise exports and total merchandise imports rising by 20.5% and 23.2%

respectively; visible trade deficit amounted to MOP17.74 billion. For the first half year of 2018, total merchandise trade went up by 22.5%, of which merchandise exports and merchandise imports grew by 10.2% and 24.5% respectively; visible trade deficit totalled MOP37.16 billion.

2. Exports of gaming services and tourism services registered continued growth. Total exports of services expanded by 13.0% year-on-year in real terms due to increases in gross gaming revenue (+17.4%), visitor arrivals (+7.5%) and total spending of visitors (+20.0%). Exports of gaming services and exports of other tourism services rose by 13.7% and 13.0% respectively. Meanwhile, imports of services went up by 19.3%. For the first half year of 2018, exports of services expanded by 14.5% in real terms attributable to an 18.9% rise in gross gaming revenue. Imports of services swelled by 26.5% in real terms.

3. Private consumption expenditure showed steady growth and inflation remained stable.

Employment situation was satisfactory, with an unemployment rate of 1.8%. Median monthly employment earnings increased; non-resident workers went up by 1.6%

year-on-year. Private consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure recorded respective growth of 5.3% and 5.1% year-on-year. The Composite Consumer Price Index (Composite CPI) grew by 3.0%, with moderate price increase and modest growth in inflation. For the first half year of 2018, the

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Composite CPI went up by 2.7%. Private consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure rose by 5.1% and 3.7% respectively.

4. Investment declined. Private investment decreased by 18.9%, of which construction investment dropped by 22.0% while equipment investment increased by 7.4%.

Meanwhile, public investment recorded growth of 28.9%. Number of newly incorporated companies went up by 491, but the value of registered capital shrank by 97.0%. For the first half year of 2018, private investment slid by 17.7%. Number of newly incorporated companies went up by 17.5%, while the value of registered capital dropped by 93.9%.

5. Volume and value of property transactions reduced. Number of building units purchased and sold decreased by 25.5% quarter-to-quarter, with the total value falling by 24.4%. The average transaction price per square metre of residential units went down by 4.2% quarter-to-quarter.

6. Public finance remained sound and recorded a fiscal surplus. Total government revenue and expenditure amounted to MOP33.28 billion and MOP18.45 billion respectively in the second quarter. A fiscal surplus of MOP14.84 billion was registered attributable to a 20.2% rise in tax revenue from gaming. For the first half year of 2018, total government revenue increased by 17.5% while government expenditure decreased by 2.6%, with a fiscal surplus of MOP30.76 billion.

II. Major Segments of the Economy

Note: Unless otherwise specified, the rates of change refer to year-on-year change in nominal terms.

A. External Merchandise Trade

Overview

External merchandise trade of Macao increased by 22.8% from MOP19.70 billion in the second quarter of 2017 to MOP24.19 billion in the same quarter of 2018. Merchandise imports rose by 23.2% to MOP20.97 billion, and merchandise exports went up by 20.5% to MOP3.22 billion. The exports-imports ratio was 15.4%, down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. Merchandise trade deficit expanded from MOP14.35 billion in the second quarter of 2017 to MOP17.74 billion.

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Total Exports

Total merchandise exports increased by 20.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, with domestic exports declining by 8.4% while re-exports rising by 26.3%.

Analysed by destination, merchandise exports to Vietnam (MOP66.7 million) soared by 1,025.3%, whereas those to Singapore (MOP14.6 million), the EU (MOP67.2 million), Hong Kong (MOP2.00 billion) and Mainland China (MOP533.7 million) increased by 43.2%, 33.2%, 28.2% and 4.9% respectively. Meanwhile, exports to Japan (MOP11.5 million), the USA (MOP32.8 million) and Taiwan (MOP4.7 million) decreased by 77.7%, 36.6% and 20.2% respectively.

Exports of machines, apparatus & parts, the leading export commodity, increased by 96.7% to MOP771.0 million, accounting for 23.9% of the total exports. Exports of watches, textiles & garments, and diamond & diamond jewellery registered respective growth of 54.5%, 7.8% and 2.7%, whereas exports of electronic components, copper & articles thereof, and tobacco & wine fell by 44.7%, 11.4% and 6.1% respectively.

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

%

座標軸標題

Merchandise exports (Year-on-year change)

Total exports USA Mainland China Hong Kong

Domestic Exports

Domestic exports amounted to MOP406.0 million (12.6% of total exports), down by 8.4% year-on-year but up by 2.2% quarter-to-quarter. Hong Kong remained the largest market of Macao’s domestic exports (45.3% of total domestic exports), despite a 0.8%

decrease in the value of exports. Domestic exports to the USA declined by 33.6% while those to the EU rose by 18.0%. Analysed by types of commodities, exports of garments

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(3.3% of total domestic exports) were on the rise, up by 51.2%, of which exports to the USA (47.8% of total domestic exports of garments) soared by 1,512.9% while those to the EU (20.4%) slid by 45.7%. Meanwhile, exports of tobacco (20.2% of total domestic exports) rose by 13.6%, but exports of other products (49.5%) fell by 15.6%.

Domestic exports to Mainland China rose by 16.7% to MOP96.9 million (23.9% of total domestic exports), of which tariff-free merchandise exports under the Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) increased by 20.2% to MOP27.4 million, consisting mainly of copper-clad boards (65.6% of total). The amount of tariff saved totalled MOP1,654 thousand.

In addition, results of the Industrial Exports Survey for the second quarter of 2018 indicated that the average length of time of orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers was 3.1 months, up by 29.2% from 2.4 months in the same quarter of 2017.

Meanwhile, 3.5% of the enterprises expressed optimism about the domestic industrial exports in the coming six months, down by 9.6 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 8.9 percentage points year-on-year; among them, 2.5% anticipated a substantial increase and 1.0% expected a modest rise. There were 38.9% of the enterprises predicting less promising prospects of exports, up by 34.1 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 33.9 percentage points year-on-year; 57.6% expected the outlook of exports to remain stagnant, down by 23.9 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 24.4 percentage points year-on-year. The findings showed that the manufacturers generally took an uncertain attitude towards the outlook of exports.

Re-exports

Total value of re-exports rose by 26.3% to MOP2.82 billion (87.4% of total exports) in the second quarter of 2018. Hong Kong was the largest market of Macao’s re-exports (64.4% of total re-exports), followed by Mainland China (15.5%). Value of re-exports to Hong Kong and Mainland China increased by 32.1% and 2.6% respectively. In terms of the types of commodities, re-exports of other products (50.3% of total re-exports), raw materials & semi-manufactures (3.4%) and consumer goods (46.3%) showed respective growth of 39.4%, 36.1% and 14.0%.

Imports

Total value of merchandise imports increased by 23.2% year-on-year to MOP20.96 billion in the second quarter of 2018. Mainland China was the main supplier of goods imported to Macao (34.8% of total imports), and the value of imports totalled MOP7.30 billion, up by 30.9%. As regards other places of origin, value of imports from Japan (8.5%),

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Switzerland (8.4%) and the EU (24.7%) went up by 49.8%, 33.7% and 19.5% respectively;

moreover, value of imports from the USA (3.9%) and Taiwan (1.8%) registered respective growth of 18.4% and 6.7%, whereas value of imports from Hong Kong (7.1%) saw a decline of 5.1%.

Regarding the types of commodities, imports of consumer goods (64.1% of total imports), capital goods (17.2%), raw materials & semi-manufactures (9.9%) and fuels &

lubricants (8.8%) rose by 18.4%, 62.4%, 14.7% and 12.4% respectively.

Imports of consumer goods showed steady growth, with imports of watches (7.7% of total), motor cars & motorcycles (2.5%) and clothing & footwear (7.8%) rising by 32.6%, 31.0% and 25.1% respectively; moreover, imports of handbags & wallets (4.3%) and other consumer goods (19.2%) grew by 23.7% and 21.6% respectively, and those of gold jewellery (8.3%) and food & beverages (14.3%) increased by 12.4% and 5.5%.

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Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

%

Merchandise imports and the main components (Year-on-year change)

Total imports Consumer goods

Capital goods Raw materials and semi-manufactures

B. Gaming, Tourism and MICE

Exports of gaming services rose by 13.7% in real terms on account of a growth in gross gaming revenue; meanwhile, exports of other tourism services increased by 13.0%

in real terms ascribable to a 20.0% growth in total spending of visitors. Both were the major impetus to the 13.0% rise in total exports of services. As regards MICE events, a total of 327 meetings/conferences and exhibitions were held, attracting 411,213 participants and attendees.

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Gaming

Gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP74.04 billion in the second quarter of 2018, up by 17.4% year-on-year. Gross revenue of game of chance, which took up 99.6% of the total, increased by 17.2% to MOP73.71 billion, of which VIP Baccarat revenue rose by 14.4% to account for 56%. Gross revenue of the mass market also registered growth, which was higher than the increase in VIP Baccarat revenue. Meanwhile, gross revenue of pari-mutuels and lotteries totalled MOP329.4 million, up by 73.9%. For the first half year of 2018, gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP150.79 billion, representing a growth of 18.9% year-on-year.

There were 41 casinos operating in the second quarter of 2018, up by 2 year-on-year while remaining unchanged quarter-to-quarter. Gaming tables totalled 6,588, up by 2.7%

year-on-year but holding steady quarter-to-quarter. Number of slot machines was 17,296, up by 6.7% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-to-quarter.

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 Billion MOP %

Gross gaming revenue

Gross gaming revenue Year-on-year change

Visitor Arrivals

Visitor arrivals reached 8,268,477 in the second quarter of 2018, up by 7.5%, with Mainland visitors rising by 13.1% to 5,673,790. Mainland visitors travelling to Macao under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS) totalled 2,627,022, up by 13.4%, constituting 46.3% of the total visitors from Mainland China. Visitors from Japan and Taiwan increased by 5.0%

and 2.5% respectively year-on-year, while those from the Republic of Korea and Hong Kong went down by 9.8% and 4.6% respectively. Meanwhile, overnight visitors went up by 6.5% to 4,436,633, albeit a decrease of 0.5 percentage points in its proportion in the total to 53.7%. Same-day visitors rose by 8.7% to 3,831,844. The average length of stay of

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visitors was 1.3 days, up by 0.1 day year-on-year. Package tour visitors increased by 5.8%

to 2,141,237.

For the first half year of 2018, visitor arrivals totalled 16,814,190, up by 8.0%; package tour visitors went up by 13.6% to 4,268,597.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

Million Principal visitor markets

Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Republic of Korea

Hotels and Guesthouses

There were 116 hotels and guesthouses operating in Macao at the end of the second quarter of 2018, up by 8.4% year-on-year and 0.9% quarter-to-quarter. A total of 39,428 guest rooms were available, up by 2,849 (+7.8%) year-on-year; five-star hotel rooms accounted for 62.1% of the total. Number of guests of hotels and guesthouses rose by 6.2% to 3,504,259, taking up 74.5% of the total overnight visitors. The average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses grew by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year to 88.0%. The average length of stay of guests was 1.5 nights, up by 0.1 night year-on-year.

For the first half year of 2018, guests of hotels and guesthouses increased by 7.8%

year-on-year to 6,868,784, comprising 73.9% of the total overnight visitors. The average occupancy rate climbed by 4.0 percentage points to 88.6%. The average length of stay of guests was 1.5 nights, up by0.1 night year-on-year.

Visitor Spending

Total spending of visitors amounted to MOP16.50 billion, up by 20.0% year-on-year.

Total spending of overnight and same-day visitors increased by 17.4% and 32.7%

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respectively year-on-year.

Per-capita spending of visitors was MOP1,996, up by 11.6% year-on-year. Per-capita spending of overnight visitors rose by 10.2% to MOP3,012, and that of same-day visitors went up by 22.1% to MOP819. Mainland visitors spent an average of MOP2,367, up by 9.5%, with IVS visitors spending MOP2,851, up by 20.7%. Per-capita spending of visitors from Hong Kong (MOP1,021), Japan (MOP1,681) and Taiwan (MOP1,510) grew by 16.5%, 9.0% and 4.8% respectively. Visitors from Australia had relatively high per-capita spending among the long-haul visitors, at MOP1,461.

Analysed by structure of spending, visitors spent mainly on Shopping (46.3% of total), Accommodation (27.8%) and Food & Beverage (18.7%). Per-capita shopping spending went up by 20.2% year-on-year, of which spending on Cosmetics & Perfume had the highest increase of 50.2%, followed by that on Jewellery & watches with a rise of 45.9%.

Cosmetics & Perfume and Local Food Products accounted for relatively large shares of shopping spending, at 31.1% and 25.0% respectively.

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 MOP

Per-capita spending of visitors from selected markets

Mainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore Japan

MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions)

A total of 327 MICE events were held in the second quarter of 2018, drawing 411,213 participants and attendees. Among them, 316 were meetings and conferences, up by 2.6% year-on-year, and number of participants surged by 121.0% to 97,985; meetings and conferences with a duration of 4 hours or more totalled 220, with 90,272 participants.

Concurrently, 9 exhibitions were held, down by 18.2% year-on-year; number of exhibition attendees decreased by 12.4% to 307,848.

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For the first half year of 2018, a total of 655 MICE events were held, attracting 688,775 participants and attendees. There were 630 meetings and conferences, down by 3.4% year-on-year, and number of participants rose by 71.8% to 169,292; meetings and conferences with a duration of 4 hours or more totalled 444, with 154,834 participants.

Meanwhile, 19 exhibitions were held, up by 5.6% year-on-year; number of exhibition attendees decreased by 2.7% to 500,570.

C. Consumption and Prices

Private Consumption

Private consumption expenditure increased by 5.3% in real terms, with household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market and abroad rising by 4.9% and 3.3%

respectively. Consumption of durable goods registered continued growth, up by 26.9%.

Private consumption expenditure for the first half year of 2018 recorded a growth of 5.1%.

Retail Sales

Value of retail sales totalled MOP18.00 billion, up by 23.7% year-on-year but down by 13.4% quarter-to-quarter. Value of retail sales of Communication equipment (2.8% of total) registered notable growth, up by 65.3% year-on-year. In addition, sales value of Leather goods (13.4%), Goods in department stores (15.8%), Adults’ clothing (12.4%) and Motor vehicles (3.2%) grew by 36.9%, 34.2%, 26.7% and 24.7% respectively year-on-year; retail sales value of Watches, clocks & jewellery (21.1% of total) increased by 18.9%. Total value of retail sales for the first half year of 2018 amounted to MOP38.79 billion, up by 24.9% year-on-year, with sales of Watches, clocks & jewellery topping at MOP8.18 billion.

After removing the effect of prices, volume of retail sales rose by 21.3% year-on-year, with marked increases being observed in the sales volume of Communication equipment (+70.0%), Leather goods (+36.3%) and Goods in department stores (+29.3%). However, volume of retail sales declined by 14.2% quarter-to-quarter, of which sales volume of Communication equipment (-42.5%) recorded a notable decrease, but that of Automotive fuels went up by 8.0%. For the first half year of 2018, volume of retail sales increased by 22.4% year-on-year, with that of Communication equipment having the highest growth, at 104.4%.

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0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

MOP million Value of selected retail sales

Adults' clothing Motor vehicles Leather goods

Goods in department stores Watches, clocks & jewellery

Prices

The average Composite CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the 2.5% growth in the previous quarter. Inflation edged up with moderate growth in prices. Price indices of Clothing & footwear (+6.9%), Transport (+5.8%) and Health (+5.1%) saw relatively high increases. In addition, implicit deflator of GDP that measures changes in overall prices went up by 3.5% year-on-year and inched up by 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter.

For the first half year of 2018, the average Composite CPI increased by 2.7%

year-on-year, with notable rise in the price indices of Clothing & footwear (+6.5%) and Health (+4.9%); meanwhile, price index of Communication dropped by 9.6%. Implicit deflator of GDP rose by 3.4% in the first half year.

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0 1 2 3 4

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

%

Composite CPI and Implicit Deflator of GDP (Year-on-year change)

Composite CPI Implicit Deflator of GDP

D. Employment

The general labour force participation rate was 71.0% in the second quarter, up by 0.4 percentage points quarter-to-quarter; the labour force participation rate of local residents was 65.0%, up by 0.6 percentage points. Economically active population (labour force) increased by 0.5% year-on-year to 392,300 and employed population went up by 0.8% to 385,400, attributable to the growth in the employed population in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services and Public Administration & Social Security. Employment in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services reached 97,300, with 85,100 working in Gaming & Junket Activities, accounting for 22.1% of the total employment. Employment in Public Administration & Social Security and Domestic Work saw notable growth, up by 10.2% and 5.7% respectively. Non-resident workers totalled 181,499 at the end of the quarter, up by 1.6% year-on-year; among them, 28.1% were working in Hotels, Restaurants & Similar Activities and 16.2% in Construction.

Job market remained stable. The general unemployment rate was 1.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter; the unemployment rate of local residents was 2.4%, down by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points quarter-to-quarter. The underemployment rate was 0.5%. Total number of the unemployed was about 6,900, with 10.8% being fresh labour force entrants searching for their first job. Analysed by the previous industry engaged of the unemployed, 26.6% had worked in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services and 24.3% in Construction. In terms of educational attainment, 31.5% had tertiary education, 22.5% had junior secondary education and 20.4% had senior secondary education.

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Median monthly employment earnings of the employed was MOP16,000, up by 6.7%

year-on-year while holding steady quarter-to-quarter. Median earnings of the employed residents was MOP20,000, up by 11.1% year-on-year but remaining unchanged quarter-to-quarter. Analysed by industry, median employment earnings in Financial Intermediation logged the highest year-on-year increase of 12.5%. For Gaming & Junket Activities that accounted for the largest share of total employment, median employment earnings grew by 5.3% year-on-year.

1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1

375 380 385 390 395

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 Thousand persons %

Employed population and unemployment rate

Employed population Unemployment rate

E. Investment

Investment in Construction and Equipment

Overall investment decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, of which construction investment dropped by 15.2% in real terms while equipment investment grew by 19.5% in real terms. Private investment in fixed assets declined by 18.9%, whereas government investment in fixed assets rose by 28.9% due to the huge investment in several infrastructure projects. For the first half year of 2018, overall investment went down by 7.1%, with construction investment falling by 10.5% in real terms whereas equipment investment rising by 24.0%; investment by the private sector decreased by 17.7% while that by the public sector increased by 68.6%.

For the investment by the private sector, number of units of buildings with licence of use issued in the second quarter declined by 65.3%, whereas gross floor area of these buildings edged down by 0.1%; meanwhile, number of units and gross floor area of

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buildings with construction permit issued leapt by 219.6% and 278.4% respectively.

Construction investment by the private sector dropped by 22.0% in real terms in the second quarter, due mainly to the successive completion of large-scale tourism and entertainment facilities and residential buildings. On the other hand, equipment investment by the private sector rose by 7.4%. For the first half year, number of units and gross floor area of buildings with construction permit issued recorded decline of 67.3% and 29.1%

respectively; meanwhile, number of units of buildings with licence of use issued fell by 63.1%, whereas gross floor area of these buildings rose by 28.0%. Construction investment by the private sector decreased by 21.5% but equipment investment by the private sector rose by 14.2%.

As regards investment by the public sector, construction investment rose by 21.8%

and equipment investment surged by 154.7% in the second quarter.

0 100 200 300 400 500

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 Thousand m²

Gross floor area of buildings with construction permit issued and licence of use issued

Buildings with construction permit issued Buildings with licence of use issued

Transactions on Real Estate

Real estate transactions in the second quarter dropped as compared with the previous quarter, with 4,100 building units and parking spaces being purchased and sold, down by 25.5% quarter-to-quarter; total value of transactions decreased by 24.4%

quarter-to-quarter to MOP24.79 billion. For the first half year of 2018, a total of 9,601 building units were transacted at MOP57.59 billion.

A total of 3,056 residential units (comprising 496 pre-sale units and 2,560 existing units) were purchased and sold at MOP19.26 billion in the second quarter, accounting for 74.5% and 77.7% of the respective total.

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As regards status of the buyers, 3,880 units were purchased by Macao residents, constituting 94.6% of the total; value of transactions amounted to MOP23.04 billion, taking up 92.9% of the total value, up from 81.7% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, 84 units were purchased by non-residents, and the value totalled MOP900.4 million. For the first half year, a total of 8,439 units were purchased by Macao residents and the value of transaction totalled MOP49.83 billion, accounting for 87.9% and 86.5% of the respective total; on the other hand, 986 units were purchased by non-residents at MOP6.65 billion.

The average transaction price of residential units decreased by 4.2%

quarter-to-quarter to MOP107,571 per square metre of usable area in the second quarter.

The average price of those in the Macao Peninsula went up by 4.0% quarter-to-quarter to MOP103,326 per square metre, whereas the average price of those in Taipa fell by 1.2%

to MOP115,926 per square metre. Meanwhile, the average price of office units dropped by 40.0% quarter-to-quarter to MOP116,523 per square metre, while that of industrial units rose by 22.3% to MOP63,889 per square metre.

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000

0 10 20 30 40

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018

Number MOP billion

Total number and value of building units purchased and sold

Number of building units transacted Value of building units transacted

Business Investment

Number of newly incorporated companies increased by 491 year-on-year to 1,720 in the second quarter, whereas total value of registered capital declined by 97.0% to MOP220.7 million. Among the new companies, 32.3% were operating in Wholesale &

Retail Trade, 29.4% in Business Services and 12.4% in Construction. In terms of registered capital, Business Services (34.7%) predominated, followed by Wholesale &

Retail Trade (20.7%) and Transport, Storage & Communications (16.2%). As regards

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origin of capital, capital from Macao constituted 47.6% of the total, at MOP105.1 million, and that from Mainland China and Hong Kong took up 28.9% and 14.2% respectively. For the first half year, total number of newly incorporated companies increased by 17.5%

year-on-year to 3,173 and the value of registered capital shrank by 93.9% to MOP455.8 million.

Number of companies in dissolution totalled 169 in the second quarter, down by 26 year-on-year, with 68 engaging in Wholesale & Retail Trade (40.2% of total), 43 in Business Services (25.4%), 32 in Construction (18.9%) and 6 in Real Estate (3.6%). Total number of companies in dissolution for the first half year increased by 3.6% year-on-year to 433.

F. Public Accounts

In the second quarter of 2018, total government revenue rose by 17.3% to MOP33.28 billion owing to an increase in direct taxes. Tax revenue from gaming grew by 20.2% to MOP29.23 billion.

Meanwhile, total government expenditure went down by 12.8% to MOP18.45 billion due to a decrease of MOP1.86 billion in investments. Fiscal surplus stood at MOP14.84 billion in the second quarter, higher than the MOP7.22 billion surplus in the same quarter of 2017.

For the first half year of 2018, total government revenue amounted to MOP64.61 billion, up by 17.5% year-on-year, with gaming tax revenue rising by 19.0% to MOP57.17 billion; total government expenditure decreased by 2.6% to MOP33.85 billion; fiscal surplus totalled MOP30.76 billion.

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 MOP billion

Total government revenue and expenditure

Total revenue Total expenditure Fiscal surplus/deficit

G. Money and Finance

At the end of June 2018, narrow money supply M1 went up by 13.2% year-on-year, of which currency in circulation and demand deposits increased by 10.5% and 13.9%

respectively. Meanwhile, broad money supply M2 (including M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities) rose by 8.6%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the Macao pataca (MOP) in M1 fell by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 55.5%, whereas its share in M2 held steady at 31.7%. Besides, the shares of the Hong Kong dollar, the Chinese renminbi and the US dollar in M2 were 52.6%, 4.3% and 9.3% respectively.

Resident deposits increased by 8.6% year-on-year to MOP589.14 billion. In terms of type of currency, the shares of the MOP, the Hong Kong dollar, the Chinese renminbi and the US dollar were 29.8% (MOP175.84 billion), 54.0% (MOP317.90 billion), 4.4%

(MOP26.05 billion) and 9.6% (MOP56.51 billion) respectively. Meanwhile, public sector deposits with the banking sector grew by 4.7% to MOP198.96 billion.

Domestic loans extended to the private sector rose by 10.5% year-on-year to MOP478.49 billion, of which the outstanding value of credit to individuals for housing loans reached MOP154.95 billion, up by 7.5%. Within domestic loans to the private sector, those denominated in the MOP and the Hong Kong dollar accounted for 30.5% and 65.1%

respectively, at MOP145.92 billion and MOP311.30 billion.

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2017 2018 MOP billion (value at

the end of the period)

Resident deposits and loans

Resident deposits Credit to individuals for housing loans Other domestic loans to the private sector

The loan-to-deposit ratio of the banking sector for residents was 60.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points from a year earlier, and that for both resident and non-resident sectors increased by 7.1 percentage points to 94.1%.

As the MOP is indirectly pegged to the US dollar, interest rates in Macao are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US. In the second quarter of 2018, the US Federal Reserve raised the range for the Fed funds rate to 1.75% - 2.00% in light of the economic situation and labour market conditions. The Base Rate of the Monetary Authority of Macao was also correspondingly raised to 2.25%.

In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar was generally weak against major currencies in the second quarter of 2018, leading to a fall in the exchange rate of the MOP.

The average exchange rates of the MOP against the Malaysian ringgit, the euro and the Chinese renminbi went down year-on-year by 9.4%, 8.3% and 7.7% respectively. The effective exchange rate index for the MOP, a gauge of exchange rates of the MOP against currencies of Macao’s major trading partners, fell by 5.38 points year-on-year to 102.11 in the second quarter.

H. Other Economic Indicators

Transport and Communications

Gross weight of air cargo (10,146 tonnes) and seaborne containerised cargo (42,232 tonnes) increased by 5.7% and 4.6% respectively, while gross weight of containerised cargo by land (4,127 tonnes) decreased by 14.0%. For the first half year, gross weight of

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air cargo (18,948 tonnes) rose by 9.3%, but that of containerised cargo by land (7,254 tonnes) and seaborne containerised cargo (80,524 tonnes) dropped by 13.2% and 3.7%

respectively.

As regards local transport, new registration of motor vehicles decreased by 4.4%, with that of motorcycles declining by 21.6% while that of automobiles rising by 27.2%. At the end of June 2018, number of licensed motor vehicles dropped by 2.3% to 238,006, comprising 114,229 automobiles and 123,368 motorcycles. For the first half year of 2018, new registration of motor vehicles went up by 3.3%, with that of automobiles rising by 33.7% while that of motorcycles decreasing by 12.6%.

At the end of June 2018, number of Internet subscribers was 411,147, up by 9.2%;

total duration of internet usage reached 307.2 million hours in the second quarter, down by 1.1% year-on-year; mobile phone subscribers rose by 18.1% to 2,383,285; meanwhile, number of fixed telephone lines dropped by 5.0% to 128,464.

Water and Energy Consumption

Consumption of electricity increased by 5.0% to 1.51 billion kWh in the second quarter, and that of water rose by 2.6% to 22.2 million cubic metres. Consumption of liquid fuel (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil & diesel, and fuel oil) totalled 73.2 million litres, down by 15.5%; meanwhile, consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was 9,883 tonnes, down by 2.7%; consumption of natural gas totalled 9.9 million cubic metres. For the first half year, consumption of electricity went up by 3.9% to 2.60 billion kWh, and that of water rose by 1.6% to 43.3 million cubic metres; consumption of liquid fuel was 127.6 million litres, down by 28.9%; consumption of LPG edged up by 0.1% to 22,189 tonnes and that of natural gas totalled 16.5 million cubic metres.

III. Concluding Remarks

In the second quarter of 2018, exports of gaming and tourism services experienced a slowdown in growth but remained as the major impetus for the economic growth of Macao.

The economy of Macao, underpinned by the increases in exports of gaming and tourism services and private consumption expenditure, expanded by 6.0% year-on-year in real terms. Moreover, the satisfactory employment situation, the relatively low unemployment rate, the surplus in the public accounts and the modest rise in the CPI are all conducive to sustainable economic growth.

Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2018, private consumption and government final

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consumption expenditure are expected to remain stable; public investment is likely to increase, while investment will decrease owing to the successive completion of large-scale tourism and entertainment facilities and residential buildings; as a result, growth in domestic demand is projected to slow down. As regards external demand, merchandise exports dropped by 17.6% in July; meanwhile, exports of services are anticipated to maintain growth, yet at a slower pace, in the third quarter, attributable to the increase in visitor arrivals and a year-on-year rise of 13.7% in gross gaming revenue in July and August, which was smaller than the 24.5% rise in the same period of last year. Taking these factors into consideration, the economy of Macao in the third quarter is expected to maintain continued growth, albeit at a lower rate, as economic growth was hampered by the decelerated growth in domestic and external demand and a relatively high base of comparison in the third quarter of 2017.

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SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS

.. Not applicable r Revised figures

- Absolute value equals zero

# Confidential data

0^# Magnitude less than half of the unit employed p Provisional figures

p.p. Percentage point

@ Figures are subject to revision later on

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)

MOP Macao pataca

Note: Due to rounding, total may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.

Figures are subject to regular revisions when required.

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I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)

%

2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

USA

　Gross Domestic Product 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6^r 2.9

　Exports of goods -7.3 -3.5 6.6 5.8^r 5.2^r 7.9^r 8.0^r 11.2

　Imports of goods -4.6 -2.7 7.1 7.1^r 4.8 9.2^r 9.1^r 8.4

　Consumer Price Index 0.1 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.7

　Unemployment rate 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.3 3.8

Euro area ^a

　Gross Domestic Product 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7^r 2.4^r 2.1

　Exports of goods 5.3 0.3 7.1 5.4 6.0 6.1 2.1^r 4.2

　Imports of goods 2.6 -1.1 10.0 10.1^r 8.0^r 7.7^r 1.9^r 5.7

　Consumer Price Index - 0.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.7

Germany

　Gross Domestic Product 1.7 2.2^r 2.2 1.0 2.2 2.2^r 1.4^r 2.3

　Exports of goods 6.2 0.9 6.2 3.8 6.4 6.2 2.8 5.1

　Imports of goods 4.3 0.6 8.3 8.3 7.8 7.2 3.2^r 6.5

France

　Gross Domestic Product 1.0 1.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.7

　Exports of goods 4.3 -0.5 4.5 5.1 6.3 4.7 4.3 4.4

　Imports of goods 1.1 0.2 7.0 8.0 7.0 4.8 1.2 6.0

　Unemployment rate 10.4 10.1 9.4 9.1 9.3 9.2^r 9.6^r 8.7

United Kingdom

　Gross Domestic Product 2.3 1.8^r 1.7^r 1.8^r 1.7^r 1.3^r 1.2 1.3

　Exports of goods -2.2^r 4.3^r 13.3^r 14.3^r 15.9^r 6.1^r 4.9^r -0.5

　Imports of goods -2.6^r 6.7^r 10.3^r 13.4^r 6.4^r 6.4^r 0.6^r 1.9

a Consists 19 member states since 2015.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Eurostat

Federal Statistical Office of Germany

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies of France; French Customs Office for National Statistics of United Kingdom

2015 2016 2017

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I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON) (Cont'd)

%

2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Mainland China

　Exports of goods -3.0 -7.7 7.9 8.2 6.4 9.7 14.2 11.8

　Imports of goods -14.3 -5.5 15.9 14.1 14.6 12.5 19.0 20.5

　Consumer Price Index^a 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.0

Hong Kong

　Exports of goods -1.8 -0.5 8.0 7.4 8.0 6.8 9.7 9.0

　Imports of goods -4.1 -0.9 8.7 8.2 7.7 8.5 10.6 10.4

Taiwan

　Exports of goods^b -10.9 -1.8 13.2 10.2 17.4 10.4 10.6 11.2

　Imports of goods^b -15.8 -2.8 12.4 11.9 11.3 6.9 11.0 10.7

　Consumer Price Index -0.3 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.6 1.7

Japan

　Gross Domestic Product^c 1.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.9 -0.9 3.0

　Exports of goods 3.4 -7.4 11.8 10.5 15.1 13.0 4.9 7.5

　Imports of goods -8.7 -15.8 14.1 16.2 14.8 17.0 7.5 7.5

　Consumer Price Index 0.8 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.3 0.6

Republic of Korea

　Exports of goods -8.0 -5.9 15.8 16.7 24.0 8.4 10.1 3.5

　Imports of goods -16.9 -6.9 17.8 18.6 17.9^r 11.6 13.6^r 12.7

Singapore

　Exports of goods -6.5 -5.1 10.3 8.3 10.1 6.6 2.3 9.4

　Imports of goods -11.5 -4.7 12.1 11.0 13.4 9.1 2.8 11.1

　Consumer Price Index -0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3

a Accumulated year-on-year comparison.

b Imports and exports of goods are compiled according to the general trade system.

c Refer to annualised growth rates.

Source : National Bureau of Statistics of China

Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong SAR

Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, Taiwan; Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan

National Statistics Office of Republic of Korea; Bank of Korea The Singapore Department of Statistics

2015 2016 2017

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN