MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

(1)

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN

This is a joint publication of the Macao Economic Services (DSE), the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM) and the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). DSE prepares the analysis of the World Economy and External Merchandise Trade, as well as data on tables I.1, I.2, II.7 and II.8.

AMCM prepares the analysis of Money and Finance and data on tables VIII.1 to VIII.7. DSEC prepares the analysis and data on the remaining sections.

Further information can be obtained from the Documentation and Information Centre of DSEC.!

ġ ġ

Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.

1

^{s t}

Quarter

2 0 1 4

(2)

Editor: DSEC Macao, July 2014

Typesetting and design: DSEC Printing: DSEC

(3)

THE WORLD ECONOMY

(8)

白頁

(9)

The global economic recovery remained fragile in the first quarter of 2014. Slowdown in economic growth and scaling back of the quantitative easing measures in the US, weak recovery in the Euro area, and softened exports growth in the Asia area contributed to the slow revival of the World economy. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2014 indicated that global activity has broadly strengthened, with the impetus coming from advanced economies, while activity in emerging market economies was disappointing. Overall, the balance of risks remained on the downside. The world economy is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015, both down by 0.1 percentage point from the January forecast.

In the US, economic growth for the first quarter slowed down due to severe cold weather;

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 2.0% year-on-year but contracted by 1.0%

quarter-to-quarter. Decrease in inventory and exports tapered off the economic growth by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points; fixed investment also dragged down the increase by 0.4 percentage points;

however, rising private consumption expenditure contributed 2.1 percentage points to the rate of increase. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 6.9% amid slow economic recovery; the seasonal adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.7%.

The growth momentum strengthened in the German economy and stable in France, yet recovery in the Euro area was still weak, with the first quarter GDP rising by 0.9% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter. Inventory contributed 0.2 percentage points to economic growth;

consumption expenditure of households and non-profit institutions, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and exports added 0.1 percentage point each to the increase. The unemployment rate remained high at 12.3%, up by 0.4 percentage points quarter-to-quarter.

The UK economy maintained steady growth up continuous rise in services, as well as the manufacturing and construction sectors. The first quarter GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-to-quarter. Household final consumption expenditure and gross capital formation added 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively to growth, while net exports failed to contribute the same. Economic growth accelerated, the unemployment rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, at 6.8%.

In view of the slow recovery in advanced economies, exports softened broadly in most Asian economies. The April WEO of IMF indicated that the ASEAN 5^a economies are projected to expand by 4.9%, and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan by 3.2% in 2014, lower than the January forecast; forecast for China and India held stable at 7.5% and 5.4%

respectively.

a Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam

(10)

In Japan, the first quarter GDP growth posted record high in recent years, rising by 3.0%

year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-to-quarter. In anticipation of the April consumption tax hike, advance consumption spending spurred strong domestic demand that contributed 1.7 percentage points to economic growth; exports added another 1.0 percentage point to the increase. The unemployment rate held stable as the previous quarter at 3.7% amid continuous growth, and the seasonal adjusted rate stood at 3.6%.

Economic growth of the Republic of Korea reached three-year high as the first quarter GDP expanded by 3.9% year-on-year and 0.9% quarter-to-quarter. Exports and final consumption expenditure contributed 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points to growth, while gross capital formation dragged down the increase by 0.3 percentage points. Despite steady growth, the unemployment rate increased by 1.2 percentage points quarter-to-quarter to 4.0%.

The first quarter GDP of Mainland China expanded by 7.4% year-on-year, down by 0.3 percentage points compared with the increase quarter-to-quarter. In the first quarter of 2014, value added of the above-scale industries rose by 8.7% year-on-year, lower by 0.8 percentage points compared with the increase a year earlier; fixed asset investment increased by 17.6% year-on-year, down by 3.3 percentage points; retail sales of consumer goods rose by 12.0% year-on-year, down by 0.4 percentage points, with sales of Chinese and Western medicine rising by 16.8%, communication equipment by 14.7% and furniture by 14.2%. Total value of external trade for the first quarter decreased by 1.0% year-on-year and the trade surplus amounted to USD16.7 billion.

Inflation eased back as Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first quarter increased by 2.3%, for which the March CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year.

The economy of Hong Kong maintained moderate growth in the first quarter of 2014, rising by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-to-quarter. Domestic demand showed signs of slowdown, of which gross fixed capital formation increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and both government final consumption expenditure and private consumption expenditure rose by 2.4% and 2.0% respectively.

External trade performance was sluggish; merchandise imports and exports increased by 2.1% and 0.7% year-on-year, but fell by 3.2% and 4.9% quarter-to-quarter. The unemployment rate held stable at 3.1%, and the seasonal adjusted rate was also 3.1%.

(11)

GDP of major economies (Year-on-year change)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

USA Euro Area Japan M ainland

China

United Kingdom

Hong Kong

%

Q4/2013 Q1/2014

(12)

白頁

(13)

ANALYSIS OF THE MACAO ECONOMY

(14)

白頁

(15)

I. Overview

In the first quarter of 2014, the economy of Macao expanded by 12.4% year-on-year in real terms. Economic growth was mainly spurred by the increase in exports of services and investment.

In terms of external demand, increase in exports of gaming services and total visitor spending supported sustained rise in exports of services. As regards domestic demand, gross fixed capital formation increased substantially, and private consumption expenditure grew upon favourable employment situation and rising incomes.

The following highlights year-on-year comparisons of major segments of the local economy:

1. Total value of merchandise exports increased by 6.2%; exports of machines, apparatus & parts and clocks & watches rose by 36.3% and 38.1% respectively. Total value of merchandise imports increased by 17.7%, with imports of consumer goods, which took up a significant share of the total, rising by 22.2%. A visible trade deficit of MOP19.37 billion was recorded.

2. Visitor arrivals increased by 8.7%; gross gaming revenue expanded by 19.7%; guests of hotels and guesthouses rose by 4.9%, and total spending of visitors went up by 10.1%. After adjusting for price changes, exports of services increased by 11.9%, while imports of services rose by 3.2%.

3. Unemployment rate was 1.7% amid stable employment situation; median monthly employment earnings increased by 8.3%. Inflation sped up with the Composite Consumer Price Index (Composite CPI) rising by 6.1%. Private consumption expenditure increased by 4.7% and government final consumption expenditure expanded by 8.6%.

4. Overall investment increased by 30.9%, of which investment by the private sector rose by 39.8% but that of public sector dropped by 49.2%. Total construction investment expanded by 33.6%, with construction by the private sector rising by 44.9% but that of the public sector falling by 49.1%. Total equipment investment increased by 18.6%, in which investment of the private sector rose by 19.4% but that of the public sector dropped by 53.1%. Number of new incorporations increased by 14.0%, and the value of registered capital went up by 23.7%.

5. Number of building units purchased and sold decreased by 6.4% quarter-to-quarter, while the total value remained similar to the previous quarter. The average transaction price of residential units went up by 3.5% quarter-to-quarter.

6. Total government revenue increased by 22.1% to MOP42.15 billion, with tax revenue from gaming rising by 21.7% to MOP37.98 billion. Total expenditure increased by 10.9% to MOP7.06 billion, with current expenditure growing by 5.4% to MOP6.69 billion. Fiscal

(16)

surplus for the first quarter stood at MOP35.08 billion.

II. Major Segments of the Economy

Note: Unless otherwise specified, the rates of change refer to year-on-year change in nominal terms.

A. External Merchandise Trade

Overview

External merchandise trade sustained growth, with total value of merchandise imports and exports rising by 16.4% to MOP24.34 billion in the first quarter of 2014. Merchandise imports increased by 17.7% to MOP21.86 billion, and merchandise exports rose by 6.2% to MOP2.48 billion. The exports-imports ratio dropped by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 11.4%.

Merchandise trade deficit widened from MOP16.23 billion in the first quarter of 2013 to MOP19.37 billion.

Total Exports

In the first quarter of 2014, value of merchandise exports increased by 6.2% year-on-year to MOP2.48 billion on account of increase in domestic exports and re-exports.

Analysed by destination, value of merchandise exports to the EU (MOP85.50 million), Hong Kong (MOP1.53 billion), Japan (MOP40.97 million) and Taiwan (MOP16.51 million) increased by 28.6%, 11.7%, 10.2% and 5.4% respectively; meanwhile, exports to the USA (MOP86.12 million) and Mainland China (MOP311.1 million) decreased by 18.7% and 4.6% respectively.

Merchandise exports (Year-on-year change)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014

%

Total exports USA EU

(17)

As the major merchandise of exports, value of machines, apparatus & parts (MOP414.5 million) increased by 36.3% to take up 16.7% of the total exports. Besides, exports of clocks &

watches, copper & articles thereof and other products increased by 38.1%, 28.5% and 11.3%

respectively; on the contrary, exports of tobacco & wine, electronic components, diamond &

diamond jewellery and garment & textile products dropped by 36.1%, 26.6%, 16.7% and 8.0%, respectively.

Domestic Exports

In the first quarter of 2014, domestic exports amounted to MOP465.4 million (18.7% of total exports), up by 1.4% year-on-year but down by 8.8% quarter-to-quarter. Hong Kong continued to be the largest market of Macao’s domestic exports (31.8% of total domestic exports), but the value of exports decreased by 1.3% year-on-year; besides, domestic exports to the USA declined by 14.9% but domestic exports to the EU increased by 24.2%. Analysed by principal commodity, exports of garment (13.9% of total domestic exports) declined further by 40.1%, of which exports to the USA (38.3% of total exports of garment) fell sharply by 46.4% and exports to the EU (41.2%) dropped by 25.6%; meanwhile, exports of tobacco & wine (13.2%) decreased by 37.5% but that of other products (72.9%) increased by 34.4%.

Domestic exports to Mainland China increased by 22.6% to MOP72.66 million (15.6% of total), of which tariff-free merchandise exports under the Mainland and Macao Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) decreased by 10.8% to MOP29.55 million, consisting mainly of copper-clad boards (80.2%) and garment (14.5% of total); the amount of tariff saved totalled MOP1.81 million.

In addition, results of the Industrial Exports Survey for the first quarter of 2014 indicated that the average length of time of orders on hand of the interviewed manufacturers stood at 3.1 months, up by 14.2% from 2.7 months in the same quarter of 2013. Meanwhile, 23.3% of the enterprises expressed optimism about the domestic industrial exports in the coming six months, up by 8.8 percentage points quarter-to-quarter but down by 16.6 percentage points year-on-year, with 1.2%

anticipating a substantial increase and 22.1% expecting a modest rise. However, 14.6% expected less promising prospects of exports, down by 4.8 percentage points quarter-to-quarter and 17.0 percentage points year-on-year; moreover, 62.1% expected the outlook of exports remained stagnant, down by 4.0 percentage points quarter-to-quarter but up by 33.6 percentage points year-on-year. The findings showed that the manufacturers were generally cautious about the outlook of exports.

Re-exports

Total value of re-exports rose by 7.3% to MOP2.02 billion (81.3% of total exports) in the first

(18)

quarter of 2014. Hong Kong was the largest market of Macao’s re-exports (68.7% of total), which was followed by Mainland China (11.8%). Value of re-exports to Hong Kong increased by 13.3%, while that to Mainland China decreased by 10.7%. In terms of the types of merchandise, re-exports of consumer goods (47.7% of total) and other products (47.0%) increased by 12.4% and 7.2%

respectively, whereas re-exports of raw materials & semi-manufactures (5.3%) declined by 23.1%.

Imports

Value of merchandise imports increased by 17.7% year-on-year to MOP21.86 billion in the first quarter of 2014, on account of a 22.2% increase in imports of consumer goods that took up 64.9% of the total imports. Mainland China continued to be the main supplier of goods imported to Macao and the value of imports rose by 11.3% to MOP6.92 billion (31.7% of total). Value of imports from Switzerland (10.2%), the EU (25.4%), the USA (4.7%), Hong Kong (11.6%) and Japan (4.9%) expanded by 83.0%, 21.0%, 12.8%, 11.5% and 1.5% respectively; however, value of imports from Taiwan (1.5%) decreased by 1.4%.

Regarding the types of merchandise, imports of raw materials & semi-manufactures (9.9% of total), consumer goods (64.9%) and capital goods (16.6%) increased by 24.5%, 22.2% and 10.5%

respectively, while imports of fuels & lubricants (8.6%) decreased by 3.4%.

Imports of consumer goods saw faster growth, of which value of watches (9.9% of total imports), gold jewellery (13.0%), food & beverages (12.4%), light passenger cars & motorcycles (4.0%), clothing & footwear (6.7%) and handbags & wallets (4.8%) increased by 94.9%, 60.0%, 15.4%, 9.3%, 8.0% and 2.5% respectively.

Merchandise imports and the main components (Year-on-year change)

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014

%

Total imports Consumer goods

Capital goods Raw materials and semi-manufactures

(19)

B. Tourism, Gaming and MICE

In the first quarter of 2014, visitor arrivals increased by 8.7%; total spending of visitors grew by 10.1%; exports of gaming services rose by 13.0% in real terms; guests of hotels and guesthouses went up by 4.9%; number of MICE events and number of participants and attendees increased by 20.0% and 49.5% year-on-year respectively.

Gaming

Gross gaming revenue amounted to MOP102.49 billion, up by 19.7% year-on-year. Gross revenue of game of chance increased by 19.8% to MOP102.20 billion (99.7% of total), while that of pari-mutuels and lotteries dropped by 7.5% to MOP291.9 million.

Number of casinos remained at 35 in the first quarter, with 5,700 gaming tables (-0.9%) and 13,232 slot machines (-19.3%).

Gross gaming revenue

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 Billion M OP

0 5 10 15 20 25

%

Gross gaming revenue Year-on-year change

Visitor Arrivals

Visitor arrivals increased by 8.7% to 7,690,166, attributable to the rise in visitors from Mainland China at 5,173,461, with 2,392,512 travelling to Macao under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), up by 22.5%. Visitors from Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the USA registered year-on-year increase, whereas visitors from Taiwan, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Australia decreased. Average length of stay of visitors was 1.0 day, same as that in the first quarter of 2013. Same-day visitors accounted for 53.6% of the total, up by 1.6 percentage points quarter-to-quarter. Visitor arrivals in package tour increased by 10.9% to 2,564,295.

(20)

Principal visitor markets

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 M illion

M ainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Republic of Korea

Hotels

Hotels and guesthouses had 27,870 available guest rooms, a decrease of 255 rooms; the five-star hotels accounted for 65.9% of the total supply. Number of guests checking into hotels and guesthouses increased by 4.9% to 2,649,437, constituting 69.4% of the total overnight visitors. Due to an increase in number of guests, the average occupancy rate of hotels and guesthouses increased by 7.0 percentage points year-on-year to 86.7%.

Average length of stay of guests held stable at 1.4 nights, with guests of the five-star hotels staying the longest, at 1.6 nights.

Visitor Spending

Total spending of visitors amounted to MOP15.95 billion, up by 10.1% year-on-year.

Per-capita spending of visitors increased by 1.4% to MOP2,074, lower than the growth rate of 9.0% in the previous quarter. Mainland visitors spent an average of MOP2,534, and spending of those travelling under IVS was MOP2,660; per-capita spending of visitors from Singapore, Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong amounted to MOP1,836, MOP1,701, MOP1,688 and MOP883 respectively.

Per-capita spending of overnight visitors increased by 3.3% to MOP3,691, and that of same-day visitors rose by 6.5% to MOP673.

Analysed by expenditure structure, visitors spent mainly on Shopping (51%), Accommodation (25%) and Food & Beverage (18%). Shopping items included Jewellery & watches (27%), Local food products (21%), Shoes, handbags & wallets (16%) and Clothing (15%).

(21)

Per-capita spending of visitors from selected markets

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 M OP

M ainland China Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore Japan

MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions)

A total of 276 MICE events were held, up by 46 year-on-year; number of participants and attendees increased significantly by 49.5% to 304,272. There were 13 exhibitions, and number of attendees rose notably by 51.2% to 263,926. Meanwhile, 263 meetings and conferences were held, drawing 40,346 participants.

C. Consumption and Prices

Private Consumption

Private consumption expenditure expanded by 4.7% in real terms, lower than the 6.5% rise in the previous quarter. Household final consumption expenditure in the domestic market increased by 4.8% and that abroad went up by 2.3%.

Retail Sales

Value of retail sales amounted to MOP18.31 billion, up by 15.3% year-on-year but down by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter. Value of retail sales of Watches, clocks & jewellery (29.4% of total), Goods in department stores (17.1%), Leather goods (10.2%) and Adults’ clothing (9.7%) increased by 15.4%, 21.9%, 8.6% and 19.4% respectively year-on-year.

After removing the effect of prices, volume of retail sales increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with marked increase being observed in the sales volume of Watches, clocks & jewellery (+32.0%), Goods in supermarkets (+21.9%), Goods in department stores (+19.6%) and Adults’ clothing

(22)

(+17.7%). Volume of retail sales edged up by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, of which sales volume of Goods in supermarkets and Goods in department stores went up by 11.7% and 4.9% respectively, but that of Motor vehicles and Communication equipment fell by 15.5% and 10.4% respectively.

Value of selected retail sales

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 M OP million

Adults' clothing M otor vehicles Leather goods

Goods in department stores Watches, clocks & jewellery

Prices

The average Composite CPI rose by 6.1% year-on-year, higher than the growth in the previous four quarters, indicating that inflation was heating up. Notable increase was observed in the price indices of Housing & fuels (+12.0%), Household goods and furnishing (+7.0%) and Food &

non-alcoholic beverages (+6.7%); meanwhile, index of Communication decreased further by 1.1%.

In addition, implicit deflator of GDP that measures changes in overall prices rose by 8.5%

year-on-year.

Composite CPI and Implicit Deflator of GDP (Year-on-year change)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014

%

Comp osite CPI Imp licit Deflator of GDP

(23)

D. Employment

Employment and employment earnings was promising. Economically active population (labour force) totalled 384,000, with an employed population of 378,000, up by 7.2% and 7.4%

respectively year-on-year. Employment in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services reached 96,000, of which 86,000 were working in the Gaming Sector, accounting for 22.6% of the total; employment in Construction and Transport, storage and communications saw notable growth, at 45.4% and 23.6% respectively. Non-resident workers rose by 27.0% year-on-year to 145,692, with 27.2% working in Hotels & Restaurants and 21.3% in Construction.

Unemployment rate was 1.7%, down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage point quarter-to-quarter; underemployment rate was 0.4%. Total number of unemployed was 6,400, with 7.6% being fresh labour force entrants searching for their first job. Analysed by the previous industry engaged, 28.7% had worked in Construction, and 25.2% in Recreational, Cultural, Gaming

& Other Services. In terms of educational attainment, 25.6% had senior secondary education;

25.3% had tertiary education and 22.8% had junior secondary education.

Median monthly employment earnings of the employed stood at MOP13,000, up by 8.3%

year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-to-quarter. Median earnings of the employed residents held stable as the previous quarter, at MOP15,000. Analysed by industry, median employment earnings of Recreational, Cultural, Gaming & Other Services logged the highest year-on-year increase of 13.3%.

For the Gaming Sector that accounted for the largest share of total employment, median employment earnings rose by 6.3% year-on-year.

Employed population and unemployment rate

350 360 370 380

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 Thousand persons

1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

%

Employed population Unemployment rate

(24)

E. Investment

Investment in Construction and Equipment

Overall investment expanded by 30.9% year-on-year, with construction and equipment investment rising by 33.6% and 18.6% in real terms respectively. Investment by the private sector grew by 39.8%, but that by the public sector went down by 49.2%.

For the investment by the private sector, number of building completions, units and gross floor area decreased significantly by 41.7%, 61.5% and 95.7% respectively in the first quarter;

meanwhile, number of construction of new buildings, units and area soared by 1.5 times, 4.2 times and 39.1 times respectively. Due to the commencement of construction for large-scale tourism facilities, together with increase in investment in building construction, property transfer fees and real estate developers’ margin, construction investment by the private sector expanded by 44.9% in real terms in the first quarter; meanwhile, equipment investment also increased by 19.4% in real terms.

As regards investment by the public sector, construction and equipment investment dropped substantially by 49.1% and 53.1% respectively due to the completion of the Hengqin Campus of the University of Macau and the absence of new major construction projects in the first quarter.

Gross floor area of buildings started and completed

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 Thousand m²

Buildings started Buildings completed

Transactions on Real Estate

Number of building units purchased and sold in the first quarter totalled 3,846, down by 29.1%

year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-to-quarter; total value amounted to MOP22.52 billion, down by

(25)

12.3% year-on-year but held stable as the previous quarter.

Analysed by end-use, 1,980 residential units were purchased and sold at MOP12.19 billion, accounting for 51.5% and 54.1% of the respective total.

As regards status of the buyers, 3,656 units (95.1% of total) were purchased by Macao residents; value of transaction amounted to MOP20.85 billion, with its share in total value going down from 94.5% in the previous quarter to 92.6%. Meanwhile, 155 units were purchased by non-residents, with the total value amounting to MOP1.49 billion.

The average transaction price of residential units increased by 3.5% quarter-to-quarter to MOP88,958 per square metre of usable area in the first quarter. The average price of those in the Macao Peninsula increased by 4.5% quarter-to-quarter to MOP82,593 per square metre, and the average price of those in Taipa went up by 4.3% to MOP100,148 per square metre. The average price of office units increased by 22.9% quarter-to-quarter to MOP113,824 per square metre. The average price of industrial units rose by 22.0% quarter-to-quarter to MOP46,577 per square metre.

Total value of building units purchased and sold

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 M OP billion

Business Investment

Number of new incorporations increased by 14.0% to 1,126 in the first quarter of 2014; total value of registered capital increased by 23.7% to MOP190.7 million. Among the new incorporations, 37.6% were operating in Wholesale & Retail Trade, 21.0% in Business Services and 13.1% in Construction. In terms of registered capital, Wholesale & Retail Trade predominated with 32.5% of the total, while Transport, Storage and Communications and Business Services accounted for 17.9% and 17.1% respectively. As regards origin of capital, capital from Macao shared 61.7% of the total, and that from Mainland China and Hong Kong took up 27.6% and 5.6% respectively.

(26)

Number of companies in dissolution was 155 in the first quarter, up by 20.2% year-on-year, with 59 engaging in Wholesale & Retail Trade (38.1% of total), 24 in Construction (15.5%), 23 in Business Services (14.8%) and 18 in Real Estate (11.6%).

F. Public Accounts

In the first quarter of 2014, total government revenue expanded by 22.1% to MOP42.15 billion owing to an increase in direct taxes, of which tax revenue from gaming rose by 21.7% to MOP37.98 billion.

Meanwhile, total government expenditure increased by 10.9% to MOP7.06 billion, on account of a 155.5% increase in other current expenditure due to the 2012 salaries tax rebate scheme. Fiscal surplus stood at MOP35.08 billion in the first quarter, higher than the MOP28.15 billion surplus in the same quarter of 2013.

Total government revenue and expenditure

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 M OP billion

Total revenue Total expenditure Fiscal surplus

G. Money and Finance

At the end of March 2014, narrow money supply M1 went up by 12.0% year-on-year, of which currency in circulation increased by 16.6% and demand deposits rose by 11.1%. Meanwhile, broad money supply M2 (including M1 and quasi-monetary liabilities) swelled by 16.4%. In terms of currency structure, the share of the Macao pataca (MOP) in M1 increased by 3.7 percentage points to 46.6%, and its share in M2 dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 24.6%. The share of the Hong Kong dollar was 51.8% in M1 and 49.7% in M2.

Resident deposits rose by 16.4% year-on-year to MOP445.82 billion, of which deposits in the MOP, the Hong Kong dollar and other foreign currencies grew by 15.7%, 6.4% and 43.4%

(27)

respectively to MOP102.63 billion, MOP226.40 billion and MOP116.79 billion. Meanwhile, public sector deposits in banks increased by 58.9% to MOP85.41 billion.

Domestic loans extended to the private sector rose by 34.7% year-on-year to MOP283.92 billion, of which outstanding value of mortgage loans extended to residents went up by 27.5%

year-on-year to MOP206.58 billion. Within the domestic loans to the private sector, the MOP accounted for 28.7%, valued at MOP81.60 billion, and the Hong Kong dollar took up 62.4%, valued at MOP177.25 billion.

Resident deposits and loans

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 MOP billion (value at

the end of the period)

Resident deposits M ortgage loans to residents Other loans to the private sector

The loan-to-deposit ratio for the resident sector at the end of March was 53.4%, up by 5.2 percentage points from a year earlier, while that for both the resident and non-resident sectors decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 79.7%.

As the MOP is indirectly pegged to the US dollar, interest rates in Macao are normally adjusted to be in line with those in the US. In the first quarter, the US Federal Reserve maintained the range for the Fed funds rate at 0% to 0.25%. Meanwhile, Macao’s savings deposit rate was held stable at 0.01%.

!

The changes in the exchange rates of the MOP basically reflect the changes in those of the US dollar. In the first quarter of 2014, the exchange rates of the MOP exhibited a mixed performance against major currencies. The average exchange rates of the MOP against the British pound, the Swiss franc and the euro decreased by 6.7%, 4.3% and 3.9% respectively year-on-year, whereas the respective rates against the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar increased by 13.6%, 10.4% and 8.6%. The effective exchange rate index for the MOP, a gauge of exchange rates of the MOP against currencies of Macao’s major trading partners, dropped by 0.76 points to 96.74.

(28)

H. Other Economic Indicators

Transport and Communications

Containerized cargo by land (4,985 tonnes), seaborne containerized cargo (57,275 tonnes) and air cargo (6,174 tonnes) increased by 13.0%, 30.1% and 3.2% respectively.

As regards local transport, new registration of motor vehicles rose by 2.0%; new registration of motorcycles increased by 20.9%, but that of cars decreased by 11.2%. At the end of March 2014, number of licensed motor vehicles totalled 229,999, comprising 110,086 cars and 119,913 motorcycles.

At the end of March, number of Internet subscribers went up by 16.4% to 275,221; mobile phone users increased by 7.2% to 1,662,547; fixed-line telephone users dropped by 2.6% to 157,155.

Water and Energy Consumption

Consumption of electricity held stable from a year earlier at 873.5 million kWh in the first quarter of 2014, while that of water rose by 7.9% to 19.32 million cubic meters. Consumption of liquid fuel (gasoline, kerosene, gas oil & diesel, and fuel oil) decreased by 3.2% to 76.74 million litres due to a decrease in consumption of fuel oil; consumption of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) went up by 5.5% to 13,077 tonnes.

III. Concluding Remarks

In the first quarter of 2014, the economy of Macao expanded by 12.4% year-on-year in real terms, which was spurred by the increase in exports of services and investment.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, domestic demand is expected to rise further; private consumption expenditure is likely to pick-up well due to solid employment situation, rising total employment and working income, and persistently low unemployment rate. Private investment is expected to increase upon construction of major tourism and gaming facilities in full swing. As regards external demand, despite increases were observed in merchandise exports, visitor arrivals (+8.9%) and gross gaming revenue (+10.0%) in April and May, the second quarter increment in exports of services is likely to narrow due to high comparison base in the second quarter of 2013 and the decelerating growth in total spending of visitors. Taking into consideration these factors, the pace of increase is expected to decelerate further, the rate of economic growth is projected to be lower than the first quarter.

(29)

SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS

.. Not applicable r Revised figures - Absolute value equals zero

# Confidential data

~ No figure provided

0^# Magnitude less than half of the unit employed p Provisional figures

@ Figures are subject to revision later on

TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (20 feet × 8 feet × 8 feet)

Note: Due to rounding, total may not correspond to the sum of the partial figures.

Figures are subject to regular revisions when required.

(30)

白頁

(31)

I. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD AND MACAO

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON)

%

2013 2013 2013 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

USA

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.6^r 2.0

ˢExports of goods 15.8 4.4 2.2^r 0.5 1.6 2.8 3.8^r 2.6

ˢImports of goods 15.4 3.0 -0.3 -2.8 -1.3 1.7 1.0 1.8

ˢConsumer Price Index 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4

ˢUnemployment rate 8.9 8.1 7.4 8.1 7.4 7.3 6.7 6.9

Euro area ^a

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.6 -0.7 -0.4^r -1.1^r -0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.9

ˢExports of goods 13.0 7.6^r 1.0^r 1.0^r 1.8^r 0.3^r 1.0^r 1.0

ˢImports of goods 13.3 1.9 -3.3^r -5.4^r -3.2^r -2.0^r -2.6 -0.1

ˢConsumer Price Index 2.7 2.5 1.3^r 1.9 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6

ˢUnemployment rate 10.1 11.3^r 12.0^r 12.5^r 11.9 11.6^r 11.9^r 12.3

Germany

ˢGross Domestic Product 3.3 0.7 0.4 -1.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.5

ˢExports of goods 11.5 3.3 -0.2 -1.9 0.2 -0.8 1.9 3.1

ˢImports of goods 13.2 0.4 -1.1 -3.7 -0.1 -0.5 - 4.4

French

ˢGross Domestic Product 2.1^r 0.4^r 0.4^r -0.2^r 0.7^r 0.3 0.8 0.8

ˢExports of goods 9.1^r 4.0^r -1.6 -1.5^r -0.4 -2.4 -1.9^r 0.2

ˢImports of goods 13.0^r 1.9 -2.5^r -3.2 -2.9^r -2.2^r -1.5 -0.8

ˢUnemployment rate 9.2^r 9.8^r 10.3^r 10.8^r 10.1^r 9.8^r 10.5^r 10.9

United Kingdom

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.1 0.3 1.7^r 0.5^r 1.7^r 1.8^r 2.7 3.1

ˢExports of goods 12.5 0.7 1.4^r -0.4 6.2^r -0.2^r 0.2^r -5.4

ˢImports of goods 9.5 2.7 0.8 -0.5^r 2.0 3.0^r -1.1^r -3.3

a Consists 17 member states since 2011.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Eurostat

Federal Statistical Office of Germany

National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies of France; French Customs Office for National Statistics of United Kingdom

2011 2012 2013

(32)

1. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (YEAR-ON-YEAR COMPARISON) (Cont'd)

%

2013 2013 2013 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Mainland China

ˢGross Domestic Product 9.2 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.8 7.7 7.4

ˢExports of goods 20.3 7.9 7.9 18.3 3.8 3.9 7.4 -3.4

ˢImports of goods 25.0 4.3 7.3 8.6 4.8 8.5 7.2 1.7

ˢConsumer Price Index ^a 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3

Hong Kong

ˢGross Domestic Product 4.9 1.5 2.9 2.9 3.0^r 3.0^r 2.9^r 2.5

ˢExports of goods 10.1 2.9 3.6 4.0 2.4 3.3 4.8 0.7

ˢImports of goods 11.9 3.9 3.8 4.9 3.5 2.6 4.3 2.1

ˢUnemployment rate 3.4 3.3 3.4^r 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.1

Taiwan

ˢGross Domestic Product 4.2 1.5 2.1 1.4 2.7 1.3 2.9^r 3.1

ˢExports of goods 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.4 2.4 -0.8 1.8 1.0

ˢImports of goods 12.0 -3.9 -0.2^r 4.4 -3.6^r -3.4^r 2.1^r -1.6

ˢConsumer Price Index 1.4 1.9 0.8 1.8 0.8 - 0.6 0.8

Japan

ˢGross Domestic Product -0.5 1.4 1.6 0.1^r 1.3^r 2.4^r 2.5^r 3.0

ˢExports of goods -2.7 -2.7 9.5 1.2 7.0^r 12.7 17.4 6.6

ˢImports of goods 12.1 3.8 14.9^r 8.0^r 10.3^r 17.5 24.1^r 17.6

ˢConsumer Price Index -0.3 - 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5

Republic of Korea

ˢGross Domestic Product 3.7 2.3^r 3.0^r 2.1^r 2.7^r 3.4^r 3.7^r 3.9

ˢExports of goods 19.0 -1.3 2.1 0.3^r 0.7 2.8^r 4.7 1.7

ˢImports of goods 23.3 -0.9 -0.8 -2.9^r -2.8 0.3 2.5 2.1

Singapore

ˢGross Domestic Product 6.1^r 2.5^r 3.9^r 1.5^r 4.0^r 5.0^r 4.9^r 4.9

ˢExports of goods 7.5 -0.9 0.6 -8.7 -0.2 5.8 6.0 7.6

ˢImports of goods 8.6 3.2 -1.6 -9.3 -4.0 5.9 1.4 6.8

a Accumulated year-on-year comparison.

Source : China National Bureau of Statistics

Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department

Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, Taiwan; Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan

National Statistics Office of Republic of Korea; Bank of Korea

2011 2012 2013

(33)

2. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE WORLD (QUARTER-TO-QUARTER COMPARISON)

%

2013 2013 2013 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

USA

ˢGross Domestic Product 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.1 2.5 4.1 2.6^r -1.0

ˢExports of goods 15.8 4.4 2.2^r 0.5 1.0 0.5 2.0 -1.4

ˢImports of goods 15.4 3.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.1^r 0.6

ˢUnemployment rate^a 8.9 8.1 7.4 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 6.7

Japan

ˢGross Domestic Product -0.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.9^r 0.3 0.1^r 1.5

ˢExports of goods -2.6^r -2.9^r 9.6 7.9^r 5.0^r 1.1^r 2.1 -1.2

ˢImports of goods 12.3^r 3.3^r 15.2^r 9.1^r 2.9^r 4.8^r 5.4^r 2.6

ˢConsumer Price Index -0.3 - 0.3 - 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1

ˢUnemployment rate^a 4.6 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6

Hong Kong

ˢGross Domestic Product 4.9 1.5 2.9 0.5 0.5^r 0.8^r 0.9^r 0.2

ˢExports of goods 10.1 2.9 3.6 -1.9 -1.2 2.2 3.6 -4.9

ˢImports of goods 11.9 3.9 3.8 -1.1 -0.6 1.9 3.6 -3.2

ˢConsumer Price Index 5.3 4.1 4.3 1.1 1.3 -0.8 2.7 1.0

ˢUnemployment rate^a 3.4 3.3 3.4^r 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1

a After seasonal adjustment.

Source : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan; Ministry of Finance of Japan; Statistics Bureau of Japan Hong Kong SAR Census and Statistics Department

3. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF MACAO

2013 2013 2013 2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1^@

At current prices:

GDP (Million MOP) 293 745 343 416 413 471 94 606 96 900 102 746 119 219 115 394

GDP per capita ('000 MOP) 534.7 603.5 697.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Chain volume measures in chained (2012) dollars:

GDP (Million MOP) 314 658 313 416 384 242 90 674 91 092 94 794 107 683 101 928

Year-on-Year change in real terms (%)

GDP 21.3 9.1 11.9 11.9 9.8 11.2 14.3 12.4

Private consumption expenditure 11.0 8.7 6.3 9.1 3.4 6.4 6.5 4.7

In the domestic market 10.6 8.1 6.5 8.8 5.3 5.9 6.2 4.8

Abroad 10.5 12.1 4.9 5.7 1.7 3.4 8.4 2.3

Government final consumption expenditure 5.8 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.1 6.4 6.1 8.6

Gross fixed capital formation 16.9 19.9 4.7 8.2 -1.6 1.4 9.5 30.9

Private sector 7.1 9.3 27.3 19.0 14.7 17.8 58.1 39.8

Government 62.1 51.8 -48.1 -38.6 -61.0 -55.0 -43.8 -49.2

Exports of goods -0.6 30.2 11.4 16.2 9.9 3.7 15.9 13.4

Exports of services 29.5 6.5 12.0 8.4 11.1 12.2 16.0 11.9

Imports of goods 27.3 12.4 15.1 7.9 13.8 15.0 22.8 22.1

Imports of services 32.2 1.4 0^# -2.4 -0.1 0.6 1.9 3.2

2013

2011

2011 2012

2012 2013

MACAO ECONOMIC BULLETIN