行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫 成果報告
中共十六大人事變化對梯隊接班制度化的影響
計畫類別： 個別型計畫
計畫編號： NSC91-2414-H-004-052-
執行期間： 91 年 08 月 01 日至 93 年 04 月 30 日
執行單位： 國立政治大學國際關係研究中心
計畫主持人： 寇健文
報告類型： 精簡報告
報告附件： 赴大陸地區研究心得報告
處理方式： 本計畫可公開查詢
中 華 民 國 93 年 5 月 20 日
一、中英文摘要
中文摘要
依照中共建政以後的重大歷史發展，中共菁英政治的相關文獻大致分成四個
類別，分別是「極權主義」途徑、
「派系政治」途徑、「世代政治」途徑、
「技術
專家治國」途徑。最後，我們把上述四類文獻的觀點放在當今的時空背景下，凸
顯它們的侷限性。我們同時指出，由於中共高層的權力來源已出顯轉變，制度化
應成為未來研究的新方向。
關鍵詞：政治繼承、中共、菁英政治、研究途徑
Abstract
The literature on Chinese elite politics can be fitted into four types of approaches.
They are totalitarianism, factional politics, generational politics, and technocracy. The
author claims that these approaches are insufficient to provide a complete explanation
of the dynamics of contemporary Chinese elite politics. Due to the change of the
source of power in Chinese politics, institutionalization should be a new direction of
research in the future study of Chinese elite politics.
Keywords: political succession, China, elite politics, research approach
二、計劃緣由與目的
中共十六大人事變化對梯隊接班制度化的影響。本研究計畫的主要目的是分
析中共十六大人事變化對「梯隊接班」制度化的影響，並評估「梯對接班」制度
化對中共政權穩定性與重要政策路線的影響。絕大多數共黨政權都因為缺乏權力
轉移的機制，政治繼承經常透過血腥鬥爭的方式完成，造成政局動盪。一九八○
年代初期以後，中共開始大量拔擢中青代幹部，成為領導階層的人才庫，並且嘗
試將這種甄補人才的過程制度化，使得領導班子的年齡呈現梯形分佈。目前省部
級以下職務的年齡限制已經確立，但最高領導職務的年齡限制與任期限制仍不夠
完善，如總書記、軍委正副主席、政治局常委等，成為政局不穩定的一大來源。
十六大中共高層人事變化的結果對「梯對接班」的制度化將產生重大影響，而後
者是否繼續進一步制度化將影響中共的決策過程與政策延續性，對政府了解大陸
局勢極為重要。
三、結果與討論
本研究研判中共權力轉移法制化的趨勢將會持續下去。中共高層政治雖然仍
是一個黑盒子，但會有越來越多的成文規定或不成文慣例約束權力鬥爭的激烈程
度與進行方式。十六大人事異動結果顯示，目前雖然總書記、軍委主席等最重要
職務的規範仍不夠明確，但以較十五大更進一步發展。其關鍵原因就是中共領導
人的主要權力來源已從「魅力權力」轉為「職務權力」
。從長期來看，
「梯隊接班」
制度化的範圍應該會擴及這一層次的職務。
綜觀過去一年來的中共政局發展來看，胡錦濤正處於權力快速增加，但尚未
鞏固的階段。江澤民的權力雖然正在流失當中，但仍然具有某種程度的影響力。
當前胡錦濤的首要之務是維持大陸社會穩定，確保經濟發展，無需急於接掌軍委
主席。只要他能妥善處理這兩個問題，便能在十七大前坐穩總書記寶座。十七大
時，江澤民年過八十，很難續任軍委主席。而曾慶紅的政治前途又因年齡因素受
到擠壓，就算出任軍委副主席，也很難再與胡錦濤爭鋒。從這裡不難了解十六屆
三中全會的議題中，為什麼既沒有人事議題，也沒有政改議題。
四、計劃成果自評
由於權力來源與權力格局的轉變，未來中共很難出現一位集大權於一身的強
人領袖。只要沒又外在因素破壞中共高層集體領導的統治型態，造成總書記與其
他常委間的權力關係失調。政治局常委們之間就必須不斷進行折衝妥協，而他們
對權力交替所達成的協議將會成為前例，影響未來的權力競賽。在這種情形下，
過去外界使用的研究途徑已無法充分解釋中共菁英政治的演變。未來外界應多探
討中共菁英政治制度化的問題，分析制度規範如何影響中共高層互動。
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