The depopulation trend and possible impact on the urban housing choices of young professionals in Taiwan
Assistant Professor, T.Y. Chao Master Student, Y.C. Tsai Department of Urban Planning National Cheng Kung University
E: hiranger2003@gmail.com
Paper Presented in Track 3 (Housing and Community Development) at the 3rd World Planning Schools Congress, Perth (WA), 4-8 July 2011
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The depopulation trend and possible impact on the urban housing choices of young professionals in Taiwan
Abstract: The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious. According to the 2009 Statistics Bulletin from the Ministry of the Interior, there were a total 198,733 newborns, which indicated that the first time the population was less than 20 million people was in 2008. In 2009, the total fertility rate was down to 1.10 people in Taiwan, compared to neighboring countries (1.13 people in South Korea, 1.32 people in Japan), and Taiwan had become the first low TFR in the world. The phenomenon of depopulation could derive from low fertility rates and result in consequences such as labor shortages and population aging that most developed countries have encountered. The "depopulation" phenomenon will change population structure and will not only impact national economic performance and competitiveness, but also will have an impact on land use and urban development. Therefore, in this study, we assume that intention toward fertility is a relatively important factor for young couples’ housing choices in urban areas.
The main causes of "depopulation" are believed to be caused by low total fertility rates that result from modern people’s fertility intentions. This phenomenon has in turn led to changes in family structure. These changes will affect family housing preferences and choices and will further affect urban living space. Therefore, this study will be divided into two phases. First, in order to verify "depopulation" in Taiwan and to assume "depopulation" is a continuous process, there will be an investigation of the major groups who have been estimated to have led to "depopulation", these being individuals 20 to 30 years old with high levels of education. Next, there will be an observation as to whether intentions toward family fertility affect housing preferences and choices in order to derive possible factors describing the face of urban living in the future.
Key words: TFR (total fertility rate)、depopulation、housing choices、fertility
intention
Introduction
The phenomenon of depopulation in Taiwan is very serious, according to the 2009 Statistics Bulletin from Ministry of the interior, there were total 198,733 newborns that is the first time less than 20 million people in 2008.In 2009, the total fertility rate was down to 1.10 people in Taiwan, compared to neighboring countries (1.13 people in South Korea, 1.32 people in Japan), Taiwan had become the first low TFR in the world. The phenomenon of depopulation could derive from low fertility
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rate and result in consequences such as labor shortage and population aging that most developed countries encountered. The "depopulation" phenomenon will change population structure, and will not only impact on national economic performance and competitiveness, but also on the land use and urban development. Therefore, in this study, we assume that the intention of fertility is a relatively important factor for young couples‟ housing choices in urban area.
The main causes of "depopulation" are believed to cause by low total fertility rate that result from modern people‟s fertility intention. And this phenomenon led to change family structure. These changes will affect the family‟s housing preferences and choices, and further affect urban living space. Therefore, this study will be divided into two phases. First , investigate the major groups who was estimated to led to "Depopulation" , and were 20 to 30 years old and have high education to verify "Depopulation" in Taiwan ,and assume "Depopulation" is a continuous process. Next, observed whether the family fertility intention affect housing preferences and choices, and derive possible face of urban living space in the future.
Literature Review
Depopulation
The general definition of "depopulation" is a decline in total fertility rate
resulting in a constant decline in the juvenile population. Many studies have indicated that when the total fertility rate is lower than 1.3 people, a country has entered the lowest-low fertility stage (Kohler, Billari and Ortega, 2002). According to the United Nations, in the past three decades, the world average fertility rate (AFR) of women has dropped 48 percent, from 5.0 children in the period from 1965 to 1970 to 2.6 in the period from 2005 to 2010. Japan is the first country that entered the
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"depopulation" era in Asia. Taiwan is also entering the phase very soon. According to MOI statistics, the number of newborns has been decreasing annually, and the AFR of women in Taiwan has dropped dramatically, from 7.04 in 1951 to less than 2.1 in 1985, below the "replacement level". Since 2002, Taiwan has officially entered its lowest-low fertility era. Furthermore, in 2009, the AFR even dropped to less than 1.0., and Taiwan became the country having the lowest fertility rate in the world.
Figure 1 Major national total fertility rate of women
Source: United Nations, the Ministry of the Interior and the Council for Economic Planning. The fundamental reasons for "depopulation" are believed to be a low total
fertility rate that is direct impacted by family fertility intention. Therefore, exploring the reasons for "depopulation" is actually like exploring the impact or reasons for family fertility intention. A family's fertility decision is affected by social pressure and marriage as well as by personal and economic factors. In other words, it is not fixed. However, we can summarize the reasons for a declining fertility rate. There are two explanations now, and they include “the adjustment process” and “the innovation diffusion process”. (Sun and Ting 1988)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960-1965 1970-1975 1980-1985 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015 年 人 非洲 全球 日本 南韓 美國 中華民國(高推計) South Koreal Global Africa Japan United States Taiwan year people
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A. The Adjustment Process (a change in socio-economic structure)
This theory holds that changes in social structures (from a traditional agricultural society into a business or social services society) resulting from such things as
increases in educational levels, income increases, feminism, an increase in women's labor participation rates, and other changes in the fabric of the social and economic structure are the main reasons that have led to a declining fertility rate.
1. Large divisions in the social and economic environment have led to poor families fearing having children and to rich families not having time to feed children. Salary reductions, complex professional technology, and an unhealthy state of national welfare make raising a child a burden on individuals and families, so the phenomenon of depopulation will surely appear in social environments with large separations between the rich and the poor. (Thurow, 1999).
2. Global capitalism has brought about fierce market competition, and success in a personal career relies on work performance, forcing young people to spend a lot of time in the workplace and causing them to choose
cohabitation or delayed fertility (McDonald, 2006), (Beck, 2004). 3. In order to maintain a standard of living and face the financial hardships
inherent in daily life, young people often feel that parenting is a burden, and they have negative attitudes about having children. Moreover, there is a correlation between higher socioeconomic status and a lower ideal number of children (Hoffman, 1979; Shek, 1996). The high costs involved in
compulsory education result in the cost of having children being higher than their perceived reproductive value (the contribution of an individual to the future generations) and this in turn leads to a reduction in the fertility number. Beckman, 1977).
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4. Female educational advancements: Chang Shu-Ching (2004) pointed out that the higher the education of Taiwanese women, the lower the ideal number of children they have.
5. Increase in the female labor ratio: Mincer (1963) first proposed the concept of opportunity cost of having children and pointed out that if women are able to work and lose a job because of having children, then their costs of fertility are greater than for women who are unable to work.
6. Poor parenting environment: A lack of adequate or acceptable day care environments and the high costs of having children in general contribute to a lower rate of fertility.
7. Family Planning: Developing countries have developed effective means of family planning to control population growth in the past, and the promotion of knowledge about contraception has led to effective control of fertility (Lapham and Parker, (1985).
8. Individualism: Single-parent families, cohabitation, gay families, families without children and other diversified forms of family units has been
accepted along with the development of individualism in Taiwan. Therefore, this phenomenon has led to a reduction in the proportional size of the
traditional family, and the number of children in the families has decreased. (Lin, Song-Ling, (1999).
9. Religion: Different religious beliefs can affect fertility motivations and change people's ideal number of children and gender preferences for their offspring. Lin Peggy (2003) found that in the case of Taoist and Buddhist women in Taiwan, the ideal number of children and a gender preference for boys is greater than is the case for women without such religious beliefs.
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10. The tempo effect, meaning an advance or delay in the period of fertility, will distort the TFR, and a delayed tempo effect has the effect of decreasing the total fertility rate (Bongaarts and Feeney, (1998). Bongaarts et al (1998) pointed out that the total fertility rate will be underestimated because of the fertility tempo effect.
11. Legalized abortion: The number of abortions is inversely related to the number of births.
B. The innovation diffusion process (Internal factors: Fertility concept changed) This theory holds that the main reason for the spread of depopulation is a change in attitudes toward fertility. The fertility attitude in Taiwan has changed as follows:
1. The rise of Feminism: Modern women have gotten rid of the shackles of traditional propriety, and they have a sense of autonomy with regard to fertility. In addition, women have begun to enter the workplace, so rearing children has become a burden.
2. The concept of fertility has changed:
The traditional concept of "raising of children to take care of us in our old age" has declined.
The focus of personal life processes has changed: Traditional social values express a belief that fertility is a process that women must go through in their lives.
Continue to fertility situation for partial male preferences has reduced. 3. Attitudes toward marriage have changed: People are choosing to marry
younger, at an older age or not at all because of extending their education or due to other factors.
4. The concept of parenting has changed: Becker (1976, 1981) suggested that couples will choose to reduce the number of children they have in order to
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improve the quality of life and extend their resources for the children they choose to have.
5. Dissemination: As the concepts that affect attitudes toward fertility pass through various forms of communication, these concepts gain popularity. As the number of individuals adopting them increases, these new concepts will gradually lead to a consensus and ultimately will lead to an overall decline in fertility.
We can find from the above literature review that the causes of depopulation have a wide range and that the main reasons for it come from external factors such as social and economic changes in the environment that lead to internal factors such as changes in concepts about marriage, fertility and parenting, thus promoting intentions toward family fertility to be reduced.
The depopulation trend’s impact
The "depopulation" trend could derive from a low fertility rate and result in consequences such as labor shortages and the aging population that most developed countries have already encountered. The "depopulation" phenomenon will change population structure and will not only have an impact on national economic
performance and competitiveness, but also on land use and urban development (CIA World Factbook, (2007). Because different types of people have different life style and needs, urban planning must be based on changes in population structure, and those engaged in population analysis must consider public facilities, residential needs, schools, and other related needs. Urban planners believe that the study of
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and also demands for public facilities. Therefore, the phenomenon of depopulation will affect the appearance of urban living spaces.
Most previous studies on depopulation are about the causes of depopulation in Taiwan or the impact of depopulation with a focus on educational systems. Few studies of depopulation have made observations about urban living space. Therefore, this study is expected to observe the relationship between the major causes of
depopulation, fertility intention and family housing preferences, to further validate its impact on housing choice.
Housing choice
Housing choice means residential consumer choice. According to consumption patterns, we can distinguish between the housing market and the rental market, and families will consider their needs and affordability or other factors and will choose one of these two residential consumption patterns. Based on the purpose of this study, we will only investigate behavior regarding housing consumption decisions.
A. Behavioral theory regarding housing choice (consumer behavior theory) Housing choice in this context means a residential consumer choice. According to consumption patterns, we can distinguish between the housing market and the rental market, and families will consider their needs and affordability or other factors and will choose one of these two residential consumption patterns. Based on the purpose of this study, we will only investigate behavior regarding housing consumption decisions.
9 B. The variables affecting housing choice
Summarized by the relevant literature, the variables affecting housing choice can be divided into internal and external factors. Internal factors consist of such things as household attributes, the lifestyles of the individuals or households concerned and personal backgrounds, among other factors of this nature; external factors consist of such things as the living environment itself, convenience of location and residential properties, etc., and factors related to housing and living conditions, which are summarized as follows:
Internal factors
1. Family and personal characteristics such as education, home purchase experience, occupation, household size (family structure), and so on. 2. Major events in the life process including householder‟s age, marital situation, fertility situation, residence time, immigration times, future career planning, and so on.
3. Economic capacity and affordability including total family income, housing prices, the loan interest rate, amount and duration of loans, government subsidies, the possibility of value-added housing, and so on. External factors
1. Housing types including building age, community management, building structure, indoor residential density, indoor ventilation, lighting, and so on. 2. Living environment including such things as mixed land use or pure
residential use, number of floors, noise situation, neighborhood relations situation, building maintenance and management, and so on.
3. Convenience of location such as distance or convenience to go to school, work, shop, the quality of the school district, and so on.
10 Method
According to the literature review, we can determine that the factors associated with life course and family structure are a series of depopulation and housing choices and that the factors regarding life course and family structure are affected by fertility intention. Therefore, it is assumed for the purposes of this study that family fertility intention is based on rational choice, and in order to derive the possible face of urban living spaces in the future, factor analysis is conducted to explore whether family fertility intention affects housing preferences and choices. However, this assumption must also be based on an assumption that the population is continuing to grow, so this study will be discussing these issues in two stages. First, we hypothesize that
depopulation will only be a short term situation in the demographic cycle and that it will not continue. Therefore, we investigate the major groups, 20 to 30 year olds with high education levels, who are believed to have led to "depopulation in order to verify "depopulation" in Taiwan and to analyze it. Based on the conclusions from this
hypothesis, we discuss how life course and family structure affect housing choice and explore whether family fertility intention and housing choice are significantly
correlated.
The main sources of information in this study are questionnaires, and the subjects are young professionals who attend National Cheng Kung University.
Analysis
According to the results of the literature review, this study is an attempt to further explore the impact of depopulation and the possibility of changing young marriageable group‟s housing preferences. The causes of depopulation include internal factors on the part of the decision makers (the innovation diffusion process) and changes in the external environment (social and economic structural adjustments)
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which have led to the observed changes in family fertility and fertility behavior, thus creating the depopulation phenomenon. Housing choice factors have influences including housing types, convenience of location, living environment, economic capacity and household characteristics, among which household characteristics can be represented by family structure and family life course; From Figure 2, we can
determine an important factor that links depopulation and housing choice, that is, household characteristics. Household characteristics include life course and family structure. In this study, we firstly analyze the young professional groups which are regarded as the main factor that cause the phenomenon of depopulation. The results are as follows:
Figure 2 The relationship between depopulation and housing choice
Analysis of samples
We select samples who are Msater students of National Cheng Kung University and investigate 20~30 year old young professionals. From this sample, we have a
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total of 88 questionnaires, 38 of which were determined to be invalid, giving a total of 50 valid questionnaires. The investigation includes the depopulation and housing choice factors referenced above.
The preliminary analysis from the survey indicates that the sample‟s education and occupations are all similar; 39% respondents were male; 61% were female, and all were unmarried and without children, had not left their original families, and the average family size was 3.64 people, with most living in nuclear families. In addition, 74% were individuals 20 to 25 years old, mostly without social experience, and the remaining 26% were 26 to 30 years old, of which most had working experience.
The factors contributing to young professionals’ fertility intention
1. As seen in Table I, in the innovation diffusion process (Internal factors: fertility concept changed), a focus on the concept of fertility has already changed, and traditional concepts such as "People raise children to take care of them when they get old."," No descendants would be considered as the worse sin in the Chinese Family Culture." and "A larger number of children indicates a high level of prosperity." were disputed by the young
professionals in this study. However, it can be seen that there were still 55% respondents who agreed that "Life would not be complete without a child.", and the concepts leading to infertility such as “I would prefer to pursue personal freedom rather than becoming a parent,” were not significant. While most of respondents chose neutral comments, we could still infer that the concept of fertility has changed from the protection of personal needs and family into a choice of lifestyle. The concepts of marriage, late marriage or not marrying had universal acceptance. In the area of parenting ideas, they were receptive to the idea of having significantly fewer children in
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order to give their children a better education and environment. Finally, in the area of effects from the media, 50% of the young professionals
expressed a belief that government policies will encourage people fertility, and 60% said that peers and friends‟ marital status and parental attitudes affect their attitudes toward having children, and more than 40% thought that their attitudes toward having children are a result of outside pressure and expectation of others.
2. As can be seen in Table I, in the adjustment process (socio-economic structure changed), 50% young professionals, because of "a sense of
insecurity about the future” (ex: unemployment, etc.) might lose their desire for offspring, and the high cost of parenting children also led to reduced fertility intention; however, the result for "Kids will be a burden." was not significant. In addition, over 40% of the respondents expressed the belief that maintaining their life standard is more important than having children, and 55% respondents also worried about the cost of raising children affecting the quality of their family life, showing that the improvement in living standards has reduced fertility intention.
When focusing on factors concerning feminism, we determined that young professionals not only recognized the idea that “Women should have the freedom to choose whether or not they wish to have children.” but also emphasized the idea that economic independence for women is more important than having children. Traditional concepts such as “It is women's responsibility and obligation to have children.” and “Husbands should go out and support the family, and the wife is responsible for taking care of children and families.‟‟ that marked the social position of women declined.
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Moreover, the results indicated that young professionals have accepted cohabitation, families with no children, and so on, showing that
individualism has had an impact on fertility behavior.
With regard to educational factors, although the analysis showed that respondents don‟t care about their partner's education level, indicating that educational attainment level does not affect marriage behavior, but highly educated women believe that the cost of raising children is really high, showing that women and men have different feelings in this regard. Over 55% of the women in this sample expressed the opinion that the cost of having children is too high, and they feel that if a woman who has a high education stays at home and raises children, it is a waste of her education. In contrast, only 18% of men shared this belief.
3. Table 2 shows the ideal number of children, and it can be seen that, among this sample, the average ideal number of children is 1.95. The desired for boys is lower than that for girls, indicating that this traditional concept has changed.
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Table I Reasons for Depopulation
Factor Level of Agreement Score
Males Females Total
Fertility
“Raising children to take care of us when we get old” is a
great idea. 20% 26% 24% 2.58
Attitude towards traditional thinking: "t No descendants would be considered as the worse sin in the Chinese Family Culture." and "More children indicate more prosperity."
27% 30% 29% 2.84
Attitude towards childbearing: Life won‟t be complete
without a child. 40% 65% 55% 3.47
Attitude towards family: Pursue "personal freedom"
rather than a family. 40% 26% 32% 2.97
Marriage
Attitude towards marriage: "It is good to marry late or not at all." Or "Life purpose does not necessarily include marriage."
53% 61% 58% 3.37
Parenting ideas
Have fewer children could result in our children having a
better education and environment. 93% 74% 82% 4.03
Money is better spent on other life purposes then on
raising children. 20% 17% 8% 2.66
Media effects
Government policies will encourage you to have children. 53% 43% 47% 3.21 Peers and friends‟ marital status and parental attitudes will
affect your attitudes toward having children. 60% 57% 59% 3.43 If you have not had children yet, there will be pressure or
expectations from families to do so. 47% 39% 42% 3.18 The media has successfully conveyed the concept of birth
control. 29% 39% 34% 2.89
Social-economic competition
A "sense of insecurity about the future” (ex:
unemployment, etc. ) might cause a change in the desire for offspring.
60% 43% 50% 3.18
The higher cost of a good education for children might
result in people being afraid to have more children. 73% 48% 58% 3.39
Kids will be a burden. 27% 39% 34% 2.84
There is no time to take care of children because of long
working hours. 47% 48% 47% 2.97
Living Standard
The priority should be to maintain the standard of living
instead of to have children. 53% 39% 45% 3.18
Worry about the cost of raising children affects the quality
of life. 67% 48% 55% 3.39
Feminism Women should have the freedom to choose whether they
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Factor Level of Agreement Score
Males Females Total
It is women's responsibility and obligation to have
children. 13% 22% 18% 2.61
Husbands should go out and support the family, and the wife is responsible for taking care of children and families.
7% 9% 8% 2.29
Women in the labor force
The economic independence of women is more important
than having children. 53% 43% 47% 3.32
The mother remains the major caretaker of the children. 7% 35% 24% 2.53
Education Level
You are willing to get married to a woman / man who has
a higher level of education than you. 80% 91% 87% 4.08 It is ok to marry someone with a lower level of education. 67% 57% 61% 3.53 It is a pity that women with higher educational levels stay
at home as fulltime mothers. 20% 52% 39% 2.82
Individualism
It is ok to move in together without being married. 60% 48% 53% 3.26 Families with no children are an acceptable lifestyle
choice. 73% 52% 61% 3.47
Work could bring higher sense of self-accomplishment
than having children. 7% 9% 8% 2.71
Religious beliefs
Because of religious beliefs, you will choose to have
formal marriage relationship and to welcome children. 7% 13% 11% 2.18 Childcare
environment
Taiwan's social environment is not suitable for raising
children. 40% 26% 32% 3.06
Legal abortion You might choose to have abortion if the timing and
environment is not right for you. 33% 57% 47% 3.16
Housing choice
1. As seen in Figure 3, with regard to housing motivation, the first priority motivation is to pursue an independent life and leave the original family, the second is requiring a better living environment, and the third is for work convenience. Overall, requiring the demand for a better living environment is highest, and reasons such as buying houses to accommodate children, because family and friends live nearby, or for good school districts were not in the top three motivations. Therefore, buying houses in order to have children or for a good school district are not the most important factor for
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young professionals who are on this particular life course. However, overall, they still expect to move to a better living environment.
2. As seen in Table 4, with regard to economic burden because houses can increase in value over time, this factor is less important than housing price, mortgage interest rates, amount, time limit and government subsidies; in regard to living environment, parking was not demonstrated to be a factor most likely because the respondents in this study were part of a population who mostly use motorcycles. With regard to convenience of location, the traffic situation and needs of consumers (consumer convenience) were the most important reasons for their choice, and the distance between houses to the workplace was less important probably because in this investigation, the respondents were students. With regard to housing type, indoor and
neighborhood living environment is very important for young professionals. Because of the geological conditions in Taiwan, the structural safety of houses is still an important factor when it comes to housing choice. Community management (security management, etc.) was shown to have little effect on housing choice. Finally, with regard to household
characteristics, the relationship between size of family and space was found to be very important, and future career plans were also found to be
important factors contributing to housing choice.
Table 3 Expectations /Actual Living Situation Table
Item Living form Level
Expected living situation
Residential district 53%
Mixed residential and commercial district 29%
Other 18%
Actual living situation
Residential district 47%
Mixed residential and commercial district 50%
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Table 4 Housing Preference Factor Table
Factor Level Score Total level
Economic burden
The level of housing price 97% 4.43
90% Mortgage interest rates, amount, time limit 98% 4.41
Government subsidies 90% 4.19
Housing value has the possibility to increase 73% 3.95
Living environment
Indoor residential density (per capita) 82% 4.00
87%
Whether there is attached parking 61% 3.81
Comfort of the living environment (noise pollution, etc.) 100% 4.62 Residential location in the security situation 97% 4.65
Neighborhood (the quality of residents) 95% 4.49
Building maintenance and management 89% 4.24
Convenience of location
environment
The distance between houses to the workplace 74% 3.92
74%
Better school district 64% 3.76
The traffic situation 92% 4.19
Convenience (consumer convenience) 95% 4.38
Service quality for municipal equipment 43% 3.49
Housing Type
Community management (security management, etc.) 58% 3.81
77% Function of the community (ex:swimming pools, etc.) 57% 3.73
The structural safety of houses (earthquake, etc.) 100% 4.59
Newly finished house 68% 3.86
Indoor ventilation, lighting, structure, orientation 100% 4.70 Household
characteristics
Future career plans (ex: marriage, children, work, etc.) 86% 4.08
90% The relationship between size of family and space 94% 4.19
Table 5 Expectations /Actual Architectural Structure Table
Item Architectural forms Level
Expected Architectural structure
High-rise apartments(5F above, with elevator) 44% Apartments (5F below, no elevator) 5%
Townhouse (3rd floor above) 13%
Deatched house 8%
Villas 31%
Other 0%
Actual Architectural structure
High-rise apartments(5F above, with elevator) 47% Apartments (5F below, no elevator) 21%
Townhouse (3rd floor above) 3%
Deatched house 26%
Villas 3%
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Figure 3 priority housing motivation
Results
Summarizing the analysis above, external factors such as social competition, standard of living, the rise of feminism, and individualism could have significant impacts on decision makers‟ more internal factors such as the changing concepts about childbearing, marriage and parenting. All of these results could lead to
depopulation. However, in this study, we investigate the ideal number of children and find that the average ideal number of children is 1.95, which is higher than the current total fertility rate of women in Taiwan. This result shows that the trend of
depopulation is not significant within young professionals. However, 11% of the respondents plan to not have any children in the future. This result shows the gap between the ideal number of children and the actual number of children planned. In
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these results, we can infer depopulation in Taiwan will not worsen but that this phenomenon will remain for a long time. In this context, the family structure of these young professionals will change to nuclear families and families without children, which means a smaller family scale, delays in family lives reflecting the tempo effect ( marriage or having children), and results in extensions status of singles and couples without children. All of these changes have an impact on the characteristics of households.
Economic burden was determined to be the most significant factor impacting housing choice, and the second significant factor was found to be household
characteristics which include family size, living space and future career plans. As for convenience of location, the traffic conditions and proximity to consumer-related needs (consumer convenience) were found to be the most important reasons determining housing choices. The first priority motivation for housing choice was found to be leaving the house with its original occupants, the second was a need for a better living environment, and the third was for work convenience. Buying houses in order to have space for children, because family and friends live nearby, or for good school districts were not in the top three motivational factors for young professionals, and this result shows how household characteristics affect housing choice. In the future, we hope analysts consider the impact of household characteristics on housing preferences in order to explore how the "depopulation" trend affects urban space in Taiwan.
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