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一國兩制下香港政治的變遷

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(1)

i

The Political Changes in Hong Kong Under

”One Country, Two Systems”

(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

i

/

(6)

ii

The Political Changes in Hong Kong Under

”One Country, Two Systems”

Abstract

Many democratic theories implicit an assumption: the fierce electoral competition helps the formation of the democratic system. However, the experiment of Hong Kong's political development in recent years does not comply. In fact, "One country"

and "two systems" has produced conflicting political results. This article will answer these questions:

First, with regard to Hong Kong's political structure: how does "Basic law" form a system of restrictions? What is the main structure of the system? What kind of institutional control does it produce?

Second, on the “Executive Dominance” of the HK Government: what are the characteristics of the governance model? What are the changes occur on the relationship between the executive and the legislature? Hong Kong has many social conflicts, is “Executive Dominance " able to solve the problem?

Third, the role of political parties and party system: the periodic and frequent competitive elections have brought opportunities as well as conflicts for the political parties. What are the specific changes occur on the composition, ideology, and the number of political parties in Hong Kong, as well as their interaction?

Finally, the relationship between the government and the society: Since HK reunified to China, "one country" system has been gradually emerging contradictions. Due to Beijing repeatedly delayed elections, Hong Kong people gradually feel disappointment and anger, people hope democratic reforms. This conflict and confrontation will be more severe in the future.

In summary, the article would like to make an integrated theoretical perspective and provide a comprehensive analysis on the changes of the political system in Hong Kong.

Key word: One country, Two system, Political Parties in Hong Kong, the Basic Law, Institutionalism, Electoral Authoritarian.

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iii

... xi

... xii

... 1

... 1

... 5

... 5

... 5

... 6

... 8

... 8

... 10

... 13

... 15

... 17

Schedler ... 19

... 23

... 23

... 28

... 33

... 34

... 43

(8)

iv

... 47

... 47

... 48

... 50

1920-1980 ... 56

... 57

... 57

... 58

... 62

... 62

... 65

! ... 65

... 69

... 69

... 74

... 74

... 75

... 77

... 80

... 80

... 85

... 85

... 86

... 88

(9)

v

... 89

... 89

... 91

... 92

... 97

... 97

... 97

... 99

... 111

... 111

... 113

... 114

... 115

... 115

... 116

... 117

... 117

... 117

... 118

... 120

... 122

... 122

... 123

... 124

(10)

vi

... 125

1997~2003 ... 129

... 129

... 130

... 130

... 132

... 133

... 133

... 135

... 136

... 137

... 137

... 137

... 138

... 140

... 142

... 142

... 143

2002 ... 143

1998 2000 ... 144

... 146

... 146

... 146

... 147

(11)

vii

... 148

... 150

... 150

... 151

2003 ... 155

... 155

2003 ... 156

... 158

... 159

2003~2010) ... 163

... 164

... 164

... 164

... 165

... 167

... 167

... 168

... 169

... 172

... 173

... 173

... 174

... 176

... 176

(12)

viii

... 176

... 178

... 182

... 178

... 184

... 186

... 188

... 188

2005 2007 ... 188

... 190

... 192

... 192

... 192

... 193

2012 ... 194

... 194

... 195

... 196

2010~ ... 201

... 201

... 201

... 205

... 206

... 207

(13)

ix

... 208

... 209

... 217

... 218

... 218

... 218

689 ... 220

... 221

... 221

... 223

... 224

... 224

2011 ... 225

... 226

... 227

... 230

... 230

... 230

... 231

... 233

... 236

... 236

... 238

... 240

(14)

x

... 242

... 245

... 245

... 251

... 252

... 255

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!

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!

!

!

!

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!

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!

(15)

xi

1-1 EA ... 23

1-2 ... 27

1-3 Mahoney ... 31

1-4 ... 32

1-5 ... 35

2-1 ... 49

2-2 ... 52

3-1 ... 100

3-2 ... 118

3-3 ... 128

4-1 ... 133

4-2 ... 133

4-3 1997.7~2003.10 ... 158

4-4 1997~2002 ... 158

5-1 ... 171

6-1 ... 235

6-2 ... 236

6-3 ... 239

7-1 ... 250

(16)

xii

1-1 ... 18

1-2 ... 41

1-3 ... 44

1-4 ... 44

2-1 1841-2011 ... 73

2-2 ... 75

2-3 ... 79

2-4 1984 1995 ... 84

3-1 ... 108

3-2 ... 119

5-1 1998 2012 ... 175

5-2 1997-2012 ... 180

6-1 ... 209

6-2 2003-2012 ... 212

6-3 2008-2012 ... 212

6-4 2011 ... 215

6-5 2012 ... 219

6-6 (1) ... 228

6-6 (2) ... 229

6-7 ... 230

6-8 2001~2010 ... 234

(17)

xiii

6-9 ... 238 7-1 ... 246

7-2 ... 248

(18)

1

( ) 12

1842 1997 7 1

155 1

2

2010 64

3

1987 68-71

(19)

2

Lan

and Kuan, 2003:239 Tien, 2003 2010 68-9

4

5

6 3,500

2012

(20)

3

7

8

80 90

9

10

borrowed place, borrowed time 11

2003

2010

2012

(21)

4

2009

/

/

(22)

5

(23)

6

2001 2011

1993

2007 12

1997

2012

2001 1841-1997

1996

1990

2001

1997

1998

(24)

7

2012

2008 :

2012

(25)

8

James Bryce

Bryce, 1921:

119 Elmer Eric Schattschneider

Schattschneider, 1942:1

Ranny & Kendall, 1956: 8513 1996 9

Giovanni Sartori faction

Channels of expression

A party is a part of a whole attempting to serve the purposes of the whole, whereas a faction is only a part for itself. Sartori, 1976: 24-9

party system

Maurice Duverger

the one party system 14 the two-

party system the multiparty system Duverger, 1955

Douglas W. Rae

90 70

(26)

9

70

70% 90 Rae, 1971

Giovanni Sartori 1976 Parties

and Party System competitiveness

ideological distance

(predominant party system) (two-party systems)

(moderate multipartism) (polarized pluralism)

predominant party system

two-party systems

moderate multipartism 3-5

centripetal competition 15

polarized pluralism 5-8

anti-system party

(27)

10

ideological distance ideological intensity

2005

2010

2010

2012 17

Duverger Duverger's Law

Duverger, 1967

Sartori

(28)

11

Sartori, 1976: 57-8 Sartori

likely outcome frequent effect

tendency law 1.

2. Sartori, 1976: 64

Duverger

Duverger, 1986: 69-71

1986

1989 1994

1995 1980

97 1996

1997

(29)

12

1995

206 91

95 98

2003 1995 1998 2000

(1) (2)

95

2003 125

2003 212-6 2011

2011 124

97

(30)

13

2011 124

1999 1998

1999 126-7

16

2003

2003

(31)

14

180

50

2010 93 2012

17 18

(32)

15

(1)

(2)

19

Lau and Kuan, 2007: 716-8 20

invisible hand

21

Potter, 2003:18-20

Huntington 1968

(33)

16

Lipset 1960 R. Dahl 1992

Huntington

80

Philippe Schmitter transitology

the levels of analysis 22

generalization Schmitter, 1995:11-44

(34)

17

/

nondemocratic

regimes hybrid regimes Diamond, 2002

23 procedural democracy

(35)

18

24

Samuel Huntington Arend Lijphart Larry Diamond Steven Levitsky Lucan Way Andreas Schedler

Larry Diamond 2002

competitive authoritarian uncompetitive authoritarian

hegemonic electoral authoritarian) Diamond, 2002: 25

Steven Levitsky Lucan A. Way 2002 36 90

competitive authoritarianism Levitsky and Way, 2002: 51-65.

1-1

1 1

Levitsky and Way 2006: 81

halfway house

(36)

19

25

Schedler

Andreas Schedler

electoral authoritarianism EA Schedler

2002

illusion of multi-party democracy Schedler

Schedler, 2002b:

12

EA

”none of these institutions are meant to constitute countervailing powers, all of them represent potential sites of dissidence and conflict" Schedler, 2002b: 12

Schedler

2009: 324-5

(37)

20

1. institutional imperatives

2. institutional landscapes

3. institutional containment

4. institutional ambivalence

Schedler

1. institutional imperatives

Schedler, 2009:

325

Schedler

2. institutional landscapes

Schedler, 2009: 328-9

3. institutional containment Schedler, 2009: 331-6

(38)

21

1

a. disempowerment

b. agent control

c. fragmentation

2

a. disempowerment

b. supply restrictions

c. demand restrictions

(39)

22

d. suffrage restrictions

e. preference distortions

f. vote distortions

4. institutional ambivalence Schedler: 337-8

Schedler

(40)

23

EA 1-1

Schedler

Schedler

1 1 EA

macro micro

institution

(intervening variable) institutionalism

(41)

24

meso-theory

26

Douglass North

North, 1990: 3-4 Adam Przeworski 1986: 59-60

specific institutions

27

28

uncertainty

29

(42)

25

Hall & Taylor 1996 60-70

(1) rational choice institutionalism 30(2)

sociological institutionalism 31 (3) historical

institutionalism Hall Taylor 1996: 930-40 calculus approach

(cultural approach)

32

historical legacies

context

Pierson, 2000: 251-

67 Pierson Skocpol

Pierson & Skocpol, 2002

(43)

26

asymmetry

real-world puzzles

small-N

how

descriptive

casual process pattern

2010 147-51

1-2

(44)

27

/

1-2

2010 150

150

/

(45)

28

small-n

how why

path dependence

history matters

Levi, 1997: 19-41 Steinmo

Steinmo, 2008: 164-5

inertia Pierson

2000 increasing returns

sunk cost self-reinforcing positive

feedback

(46)

29

33Pierson

lock in

Pierson, 2000: 263

Stephen D. Krasner 1984: 240-2 punctuated

equilibrium

Krasner, 1984: 242

critical juncture Mahoney, 2001:

112-3

(47)

30

institutional reproduction Mahoney, 2001: 114

contingency

Mahoney

Mahoney, 2001: 113

34

unpredictability Mahoney, 2000: 20-1

contextualizing casual mechanisms 35

(48)

31

reactive sequence Mahoney

Mahoney, 2000: 526-7

Mahoney, 2001: 114-5

Mahoney

Mahoney 1-3

Mahoney 2001: 113

(49)

32

/

displacement

conversion layering drift

2010 166-7

(1) displacement

(2) conversion

(3) layering

(4) drift

1-4

1-4

2010 167

(50)

33

Schedler

(51)

34

Schedler

Schedler

Schedler Mahoney

1-5

(52)

35

1 5

Mahoney(2001: 113) Schedler EA

(53)

36

( ) initiative condition

institutional

imperatives institutional landscapes

historical legacies

1985-1997

( ) institutional inertia and containment

36

A.

37

B.

(54)

37

C.

a.

b.

c. 3

D.

E. 38

F.

G.

H

( ) reactive sequence

conflict sets

(1)

(55)

38

(2)

1999

392003

(3)

legitimacy 40

(4)

(56)

39

(5)

in-between

2003

(6) /

2002 SARS

( ) critical juncture

Mahoney

2001 111-2

16

(57)

40

1997~2013

(1) 1985-1997 (2)

1997-2003 (3) 2004-2010 (4)

2010- 1985

1997 2003

2010

1-2 1985-1997

1985 5 27

7 1

1997

1997 7 1

1997-2003

1997 150

2002

2002

2003 7 1 50

(58)

41

1 2

(59)

42

2003-2010 2003

2003

2012 2003

2007 2008

2010

2010 2012

2010-2012 2008

2010

( )

(60)

43

/

/

/

macro-level research approach

(61)

44

41

1-3

1 3

http://www.hmo.gov.cn/

http://www.locpg.hk/big5/default_310.asp http://www.cmab.gov.hk/tc/about/welcome.htm http://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/tc/index/index.html

http://www.reo.gov.hk/ch/about/ceo_msg.htm

http://www.gld.gov.hk/egazette/tc_chi/gazette/toc.php?Submit=accept http://www.legco.gov.hk/general/chinese/sec/reports/arpt.htm http://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/2013/chi/index.html

http://www.yearbook.gov.hk/2011/tc/index.html

Roundtable Institute and its Network http://www.roundtablecommunity.org.hk/about/index.html

http://www.octs.org.hk/

http://www.procommons.org.hk/about-us?lang=zh http://www.ncforum.org.hk/index.asp

http://www.synergynet.org.hk/b5_index.php http://www.hkpri.org.hk

http://www.savantas.org/b5_index.php http://www.lionrockinstitute.org/chinese/

Civic Exchange http://www.civic-exchange.org/wp/

http://www.hkddn.org/index.htm http://hkupop.hku.hk/

NGO

http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/

http://forum2.hkgolden.com/topics.aspx?type=CA :http://news.discuss.com.hk/index.php?gid=150 http://hkreporter.loved.hk/

(62)

45

structured interviews semistructured

interviews unstructured interviews

information/data gathering

jack, 1998:137-40 moral language

meta-statement

(1) (2)

(3)

15 1-4

(63)

46

42

1-4

D001 45~50 2012.6.27

D002 40~45 2012.6.27

D003 20~25 2012.7.1

D004 30~35 2012.7.10

D005 15~20 2012.7.11

D006 15~20 2012.7.11

D007 30~35 2012.7.20

D008 30~35 2012.7.20

D009 40~45 2012.7.28

D010 45~50 2012.11.9

D011 55~60 2013.4.21

D012 45~50 2013.6.21

D013 55-60 2013.6.22

D014 40~45 2013.6.22

D015 55~60 2013.6.28

(64)

47

“The fundamental political problem of the British Colony of Hong Kong is its relationship with China and not the advancement to self-government and independence as is the case with most British colonies. ”

· Alexander Grantham

Richard Hughes

49

43

155

political landscape

(65)

48

1840

1841 1

1992 12-3

Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston a barren island with hardly a house upon it

44

1842 8 29

Sir Henry Pottinger

230

45 2-1

46

(66)

49

2 1

http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hkcolonyprocess.jpg

1843

47

48 indirect

(67)

50

1865

1905

……1900

17,247,023

16,797,700 16,000,527 16,087,673 11,677,708

Ireland, 1905: 15

150 96%

2012

crown colonies

letters patent royal instructions

colonial regulations 2

(68)

51

legislative council

49

2001 19-22

governor 50 Her

Majesty’s representative 1971

51 52

1985 11 2-2

(69)

52

( )

2 2

Sir John Francis Davis 1844-1848

53

1848 1849 1

1985 11

Sir Samuel George Bonham 1848 1854

1850

1880 1888

1 19

(70)

53

1941 12 25

1993

1945 8 15

5 Sir Mark Aitchison

Young, 1886 6 30 1974 5 12

8 28

1997 1984 15-21

10

municipal council 48

32 16 16

30 20

1 30

1947 5

1949

7 25

Via Ports: From Hong Kong to Hong Kong 1965

(71)

54

Grantham, 1965:105

1984 146 1950

1952 10

54

1997

25-8 300

government by

discussion administrative

absorption of politics

synarchy

1896

1926 55 1985

(72)

55

1940

1980 1947 1 1951 6

16 9 7 1951 7

1964 6 18 10 8

1964 7 13

1850

2001 31 1967

2012

70 25 Crawford Murray MacLehose, Baron

MacLehose of Beoch 1971 1982

ICAC

MacLehose Years

1972 11 30 15 15

(73)

56

1976 8 23

4 23

1977 25 1980 27 1983 29 1984

32 29

1980 155

1920-1980

150

(74)

57

1921 7 1 8

56

1925 57

1946

1949 2

(75)

58

58

1945

1996 278-82 1946 12

1996

1947 5 1

15

1950 1 6

1947 1984

1999 14-5 15 50

(76)

59

59

1950

……

(77)

60

1956

(1)

(2)

(3)

4 28

1984 353-5

1984 355

(78)

61

60

1967

1967

7

9 15

8 20

3000

400 1997

1997 37-42 1999

(79)

62

61 1977

62 1978 8 13

2004 56-7

631981 9 30

1981 12

(80)

63

1982 12 31

1983

(1)

(2)

(3) 1983 4 22

1988 6

1993 39

1987 1993 35

(81)

64

……

1993 36-7

(82)

65

1982

1984 6

22 23

(83)

66

1984 10 3

( 1993 13)

2011 —

living basic law

2009

(84)

67

1950

Wong, 1997

1983 7 1

(85)

68

1978 1981

1983

2010

1987 97

(86)

69

1997 7 1

97 7

1979 3

(1) 1982.9~1983.6

(2) 1983.7~1984.9

1984 12 19

22 1982.9~1983.6

1982 9 Margareta Thatcher

1898

1992 28 9

24 1997

(87)

70

1992 28-9

1983.7~1984.9

1983 7

1984 9 22

64

1983

1993a 83

1993a 83

65

1984 12 19

1997 6 30

(88)

71

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

Chalmers Johnson 1984: 897-8 Asian Survey

(89)

72

(1) (2) (3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

2012

D011

(90)

73

1981 1986 2 1989

6 1841-2011

2-1

1841 5000-7,500

1848 24,000

1851 33,000

1855 72,000

1901 283,978

1912 467,777

1931 849,800

1941 1,600,000

1945 500,000

1950 2,200,000

1960 3,000,000

1970 3,995,400

1980 5,145,100

1984 1991 1996

5 397 900 5,674,114

6,270,000

1984 1997

54 1/12

2001 2012

6,864,346 7,173,900

2013 2 19

1982 7

(91)

74

1985

6

59

23 36

(1) (2) (3)

66 67

1991 36-7

2-2 12

180

(92)

75

2 2

36

15

11 10

23

1991 68-70

(93)

76

1986 8

600

1997

1988 4

1988 11 68

400 800

30%

2012

(94)

77

1989 1

4 15

4 20

5 23

1978

5 27

12 1,200

6

3 6 4

69

1997

2011

(95)

78

2011

6 22

8

97

1990

(96)

79

70

2- 3

1990 2

2 3

1986 1997

1986

1988

800 2012

1989 97

1989

2

(97)

80

1982

18 132 1984 7 18

Sir Edward Youde, 1982-1986

1997 1984 49-58

1984

1985 24

12

(98)

81

……

1985 6

97 2003

1995

1985 11

1993a 174-5

1988 91 1986

12 1988

1987 5 1987

1988

9

(99)

82

11 15

1988

1997 1989 5

1991

20 1995 2003

88

1990 1 2

1991

18 1997

20 1992 9 18

21 21 3

18

1991

1247 2000

1997

2012

1992 4

1995

(100)

83

71

(1)

(2)

(3) 21 18

(4) 21 30

270

(5)

1993 4 12 1994 95

17

1993

2 1994

1995 9 60

(101)

84

20 30 10

2-4

2 4 1984 1995

1984 1985 1988 1991 1995

16 10 10 3

30 22 20 18

12 14 21 30

18 20

12 12

10

* 46 56 56 60 60

1993 2

1997

1994 7

1994

(102)

85

/ /

72

1948

1923 1967

1980

1983 1 2

11 1985

73

(103)

86

74

1989

1978

5 21 100

75

6 3 6 4

1997

2011

(104)

87

76

D001

1991

D002

D002

(105)

88

1990 4 23

1991

18 12

1992

1993 1994 77

1994 The

(106)

89

Democratic Party

1949

50

in- between

(107)

90

78 1970

– 1971 1972

1973-1974 1978

(108)

91

1920

1956 1960

1966

1968

1967

1967 Public Order Ordinance 80 3

1980 30

20

1971 7 7

21 81

5

1980 30 20

(109)

92

1995

7

1991

1995

39 1991

1996

2 3 3 4 82

policy legacy initiative condition

150

initiative condition

(110)

93

49

Schedler institutional imperatives

83

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

83

(111)

94

1980

(1)

political tutelage

(2)

(112)

95

rule of law

(3)

(113)

96

(114)

97

……

1993 220)

historical legacies

(115)

98

(a) 160

(b) (c) (d)

1990 3 28

2004 79

2004 79

(116)

99

2008

70 80

2002 462

2013/4/5 A16

3-1

(117)

100

3-1

(118)

101

A

22

(1) (2)

(3) (4) (5)

(6) 84

158

(119)

102

159 B

22 85

( )

(1)

151

” ”

” ”

152 (2)

73

(3)

(120)

103

82 85

86 87

95 96

(4) 5

105

109 112 114 116

111

115 (5)

1 2

3 1 2

4

(121)

104

5 4

21

6 1 5

24

44

24 4

25 26 28

27 38

39

C

16

17 19

(122)

105

64

48

(1)

(2)

48 (3)

86

87

72 2

D

(1) 40 (2)

20 (3) (4)

44

(123)

106

31

88

45 (1).

(2) (3)

400 800 1600

(124)

107

E.

48

(1)

(2)

(3)

1/4

2/3

(125)

108

F

2-4

3-1

60 30

24 6

30 30

35 35

G

(126)

109

rule of law common law

presumed

innocence beyond reasonable doubt

(1)

(2)

(3)

17 49

(127)

110

H

45

68

1 7 2007

2 3 2007

89

(1) 2007

(128)

111

(2) 45

1990 29-63

70 80

1991

(129)

112

2010 85-9

90

(1) (2)

(3)

1985 80

1997 25

2004 4

2004

(130)

113

91

2005

92

93

1999 126-8 (1)

(2)

74

(3)

79 7

(131)

114

94

1996 216-9

Ghai, 1999 Hong Kong's New Constitutional Order

legitimacy

1999:292-302

2000 21

2000 9-27 constitutional hard power

political soft

(132)

115

power

95

political

body (1) (2)

(133)

116

151

31

31 (2) political party —

(a) (b)

political affiliation

2012

(1) (2) (3)

(4) 2012 4-

10

(134)

117

2012 11 2009

91

96 95

98

1991

(135)

118

97 1995

1995

42% 20 12

1996 1

largest remainder method

3-2 3-2

3 2

2 2012

(136)

119

3 2

1998 2000 2004

4 5 6

3 4 5

3 4 4

5 5 7

5 6 8

20 24 30

quota 98

1996

97

(137)

120

2011 124

(138)

121

opened list method closed list

method

1998

2004

3

(139)

122

1984 7 18

24 12

11

1995

2(1) 25

26 99

1992 1995

1991

(140)

123

1997

30 30

30

1 23

plurality voting system 1 3

3 3

4

preferential elimination system

1 1

(141)

124

50

270 115 2003

43 106

100

D001

(142)

125

2004 10 2005 11 2006 11

/

2008-09

(143)

126

3-3

(144)

127

mandate

(145)

128

3-3

(146)

129

1997~2003

1997 8

Schedler

(147)

130

1995

1995

1999 12 28 24 2000

1 18

2001 5 8

10

1 7 1 22

4-1

(148)

131

4-1

101 (1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(149)

132

102

1998 7 1

1998 1 4-1 4-2

1998 4 2 —

— 1998

(150)

133

(http://hkupop.hku.hk/chinese/)

(http://hkupop.hku.hk/chinese/)

1997

7 1

1994 95

103

(151)

134

94

1994 38- 41

1995

1995 25-8

20

18 14 2

1 21

104 95

96 1 26

(1) ;

(2)

(3)

(152)

135

150 56 94

1996 11 2 340

34 26 400

1996 12 11

1992

105

106

(153)

136

107

108

95

60

1996

1997 7 1

1997 1 6 13

1997-1998

1997

6 30

1997 6 23 1997 6 28 80 30

24

16 63

(154)

137

109 110

1997 7 2

1997

8 5 10

6 3

1997 10 19 1999

3 2003 8 24 5 10

(155)

138

111

16

(156)

139

Policy Group

2000

1999

1999 7

2000 4

2001

(157)

140

2001 4 30

2001 2

2003 10

2003/10/14

2003 SARS

2001 10 2002

(158)

141

2007 7 1

12

(159)

142

112

113

2002

800 714

100

(160)

143

1998

43 13

2000 60 12

1995

2 4 1996

1998

1998 9

2000 10

2002

1997 7 1 400

2002

2007 6 30

2005 3

6 21 6 24

(161)

144

1998 2000

1998 5 24

149 53.29

1998/5/27 43

1998/5/26

1998/5/27 1998/5/27

1998/5/28

1998 1995

proportional

representation PR Hare largest

remainder method 20 1998 175

60 10 16.7%

800

30 50%

3 ;

1998 174-5 20

33.3%

2000

60 6

(162)

145

10% 30 50%

24 40% 24 5

4 4 5 6

2007

20

30 10 800

24 30

2003

2007

(163)

146

1997 7 3 500

200

2002 2002/7/2

1997 7 24

1997 3

24 “

” “ ”

1999

(164)

147

114 1997

3 24

6 26

22 4 24 2 3

158

24 22

158

1999

158

(165)

148

1991 17

27

1151991

1997

50 500

116

(166)

149

117

118

2005 7 public order

right of interest of other

2007

1999

2002 16

1999

2000 4

(167)

150

5 31

1988 4

73,000

1989 2

(168)

151

1990 4 4

1192002

9 24 120

(169)

152

2002 3

3

27 39 39

(1)

(170)

153

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(171)

154

(6)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(172)

155

121

122

2002

2003

1997 2002

7 1

800 2,300

(173)

156

4,000 3,000

2,000

2003

2002 12 15

7 1

50

123

6

124

22 8 1~2

(174)

157

9 5

1997

SARS 125

126

SARS

2003 6 44.1 100 4-3

4-4

(175)

158

4 3 1997.7~2003.10

http://hkupop.hku.hk/

4 4 1997~2002

http://hkupop.hku.hk/

(176)

159

11 23

2004 14

2004/8/23 2004

(177)

160

institutional landscapes

1997 2003 SARS

D010

(178)

161

2003

(179)

162

(180)

163

2003~2010)

……

OK K

50

OK OK

Feel Good

OK 2004

89 2003

50

127

2003

(181)

164

1978 8

2003

129

2004

2003

2003 9 12

2004

(182)

165

2003

2004/3/14

(1) (2)

(3)

(4)

(183)

166

(5)

(1) (2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(1) (2) (3) (4)

(5)

(184)

167

2004 2

2004

(1)

(2) (3)

(4)

130

2004

1994 2

(1) (2)

(185)

168

1997 7 1

1997 (3)

” (4)

104

2003

2004

2004

2003 50

1982

(186)

169

2003

2003

3000~5000

2012 2003

1970

1980

(187)

170

1970

78

1988 56% 1989 60.7%

1

2003 1

24 2003 6 29

Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Agreement CEPA

CEPA

SARS

CEPA CEPA

CEPA

2003 7

131 2003

(188)

171

2004 6

:

2004 6 1 3

10

2004 5-1

5 1

(189)

172

2006

2011

2009 12

2010 1 669

2011 2015

2008 157

2004 2005

2007

(190)

173

2011

2009 7 28

1988 11

2012

……

2004 12

2005 3 10

(191)

174

5 5

2005 4 27

53 2

46 5

2005 5 25

2005 6 16

2005

2007 3 25 800

649 123

(192)

175

2006 8

69 173 100%

6.14%

5-1

74

5 1 (1998 2012)

(1998 2005) (2005 2012) (1998 2012)

a. 298 142 440

b. 97 43 140

c. 201 99 300

d. 170 85 255

e. 31 0 31

f. 0 14 14

(b/a) 32.55% 30.28% 31.82%

(d/a) 57.05% 59.86% 57.98%

(193)

176

2008

80

semi-democratic regime

2004

The Link

(194)

177

2004 12 25

2004 12 30 30

2006 10 1

League of Social Democrats, LSD

(195)

178

132 2003

2010

126 0.53

07 08

2003

2005 2006

2007 3 18

(196)

179

2008 10 15

70

D003

1997-2012 5-2

(197)

180

5 2 1997 2012

1997 3,000 4,000

1998 40

1999 500

2000 3,700

2001 700

2002 350

2003133 23 >500,000 429,000 502,000 350,000

2004 07 08 530,000 180,000 207,000 200,000

2005 21,000 20,000 24,000 11,000

2006 58,000 33,000 39,000 28,000

2007 68,000 30,000 34,000 20,000

2008 47,000 16,000 19,000 15,500

2009 76,000 32,000 37,000 26,000

2010 52,000 22,000 26,000 20,000

2011 2012

218,000 59,000 67,000 54,000

2012 >400,000 98,000 112,000 63,000

2012/7/2

2006 D001

(198)

181

OK OK

OK ——

banner

OK OK

2004

OK

D001

(199)

182

2003

1342004

6 300

135

(200)

183

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