第五章 結論與建議
第二節、 對後續研究者的建議
本研究旨在探討期貨與現貨投資人行為偏誤的相互關係,並利用台灣股市與 期貨市場 2009 年 1 月 1 日至 2019 年 6 月 30 日的日資料進行實證分析並且獲得 相關的研究結果與結論。然而本研究在實證上仍然遇到一些限制,後續的研究者 可以藉由下列的方向來擴大此議題的研究貢獻:
1. 本研究只使用部分的投資人行為偏誤代理變數,後續的研究著可尋找更多行 為偏誤的合理代理變數進行實證研究。
2. 本研究只能以近 11 年台灣金融市場投資人的行為偏誤作為研究期間,後續 的研究著應可分析更長時間的投資人行為偏誤的變化。
3. 本研究只以台灣股市與期貨市場為研究對象,後續的研究者可擴大至不同市 場成熟度的期貨市場投資人行為偏誤與股票市場投資人行為偏誤之相互關 係的影響。
4. 關於行為偏誤代理變數的計算,本研究是使用成交量進行分析,後續的研究 者如能獲得委買量與委賣量的資料,也可用委買量與委賣量來取代成交量來 計算行為偏誤的代理變數後進行實證分析。
33
參考文獻
張志向,2018。處分效果、私房錢效果與股票特徵之關係的實證研究:來自臺灣、
香港與中國的證據,106 年科技部專題研究計畫期末報告。
Akinkoye, E. Y. and O. E. Bankole, 2020. Effect of emotional biases on investor’s decision making in Nigeria. International Journal of Business and Management Future, 4(1), 33-39.
Alzahrani, M., Masih, M., and O. Al-Titi, 2014. Linear and non-linear Granger causality between oil spot and futures prices: A wavelet based test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48(November), 175-201.
Barber, B. M. and T. Odean, 2001. Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Barber, B. M., Lee, Y. T., Liu, Y. J., and T. Odean, 2007. Is the aggregate investor reluctant to realise losses? Evidence from Taiwan. European Financial Management, 13(3), 423-447.
Booth, G. G., So, R. W., and Y. Tse, 1999. Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 19(6), 619-643.
Boujedra, F., and F. Ismaliia, 2019. Overconfidence and trading volume: The case of the Tunisian stock market. Journal of Accounting and Finance, 19(2), 11-16.
Chan, K., 1992. A further analysis of the lead–lag relationship between the cash market and stock index futures market. Review of Financial Studies, 5(1), 123-152.
Chan, K., Y. P. Chung, and H. Johnson, 1993. Why option prices lag stock prices: A trading-based explanation. Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1957-1967.
Chang, C.-H. and S.-J. Lin, 2015. The effects of national culture and behavioral pitfalls on investors' decision-making: Herding behavior in international stock
34
markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 37(May), 380-392.
Chang, C.-H., S.-S. Chen, and S.-L. Hsieh, 2017. Asymmetric reinforcement learning and conditioned responses during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis:
Evidence from Taiwan. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 20(2), 1750010(1)-1750010(44).
Chen, G., K. A. Kim, J. R. Nofsinger, and O. M. Rui, 2007. Trading performance, disposition effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias, and experience of emerging market investors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20(4), 425-451.
Chen, S. Y., C. C. Lin, P. H. Chou, and D. Y. Hwang, 2002. A comparison of hedge effectiveness and price discovery between TAIFEX TAIEX index futures and SGX MSCI Taiwan index futures. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 5(2), 277-300.
Chen, W. K., C. T. Lin, and C. Y. Shiu, 2019. Price discovery and price leadership of various investor types: Evidence from Taiwan futures markets. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 53(2), 601-631.
Chen, Y. L. and Y. F. Gau, 2010. News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(7), 1628-1636.
Cheng, P. Y., 2007. The trader interaction effect on the impact of overconfidence on trading performance: An empirical study. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 8(2), 59-69.
Chiang, R. and W. M. Fong, 2001. Relative informational efficiency of cash, futures and options markets: The case of emerging market. Journal of Banking and Finance, 25(2), 355-375.
Choe, H., and Y. Eom, 2009. The disposition effect and investment performance in the
35
futures market. Journal of Futures Markets, 29(6), 496-522.
Chu, Q. C., W. L. G. Hsieh, and Y. Tse, 1999. Price discovery on the S&P 500 index markets: An analysis of spot index, index futures, and SPDRs. International Review of Financial Analysis, 8(1), 21-34.
Chuang, W. -I. and R. Susmel, 2011. Who is the more overconfident trader?
Individual vs. institutional investors. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(7), 1626-1644.
Chui, A. C., S. Titman, and K. J. Wei, 2010. Individualism and momentum around the world. Journal of Finance, 65(1), 361-392.
Da Costa Jr, N., M. Goulart, C. Cupertino, J. Macedo Jr., and S. Da Silva, 2013. The disposition effect and investor experience. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(5), 1669-1675.
Demir, M., T. F. Martell, and J. Wang, 2019. The trilogy of China cotton markets: The lead–lag relationship among spot, forward, and futures markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 39(4), 522-534.
Eom, Y., 2019. Intraday disposition effect of day traders and its relationship with investment performance: Evidence from the KOSPI 200 futures market. Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1676374.
Floros, C., 2009. Price discovery in the South African stock index futures market. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 34(December), 148-159.
Garvey, R. and A. Murphy, 2004. Are professional traders too slow to realize their losses? Financial Analysts Journal, 60(4), 35-43.
Granger, C. W. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
Gwilym, O. A. and M. Buckle, 2001. The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100
36
stock index and its derivative contracts. Applied Financial Economics, 11(4), 385-393.
Hou, Y. G. and S. Li, 2020. Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 66(March), 166-188.
Huang, C.-F., C.-H. Chang, L.-M. Kuo, and T.-N. Hsieh, 2017. The disposition effect, price performance, and fundamentals of IPOs: Evidence from Taiwan.
Investment Analysts Journal, 46(4), 263-278.
Hung, J. C., Y. H. Liu, I. M. Jiang, and S. Liang, 2020. Price discovery and trading activity in Taiwan stock and futures markets. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(5), 963-976.
Judge, A. and T. Reancharoen, 2014. An empirical examination of the lead–lag relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from Thailand.
Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 29(September), 335-358.
Kang, S. H. and S. M. Yoon, 2019. Financial crises and dynamic spillovers among Chinese stock and commodity futures markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 531(October), DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.121776.
Karabiyik, H., P. K. Narayan,, D. H. B. Phan, and J. Westerlund, 2018. Islamic spot and index futures markets: Where is the price discovery? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 52(December), 123-133.
Kaur, K., 2019. Causality relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from India. IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, 16(1), 50-58.
Kawaller, I. G., P. D. Koch, and T. W. Koch, 1987. The temporal price relationship between S&P 500 futures and the S&P 500 index. Journal of Finance, 42(5), 1309-1329.
37
Kuo, W. Y. and T. C. Lin, 2013. Overconfident individual day traders: Evidence from the Taiwan futures market. Journal of banking & Finance, 37(9), 3548-3561.
Lin, C. C., S. Y. Chen, D. Y. Hwang, and C. F. Lin, 2002. Does index futures dominate index spot? Evidence from Taiwan market. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 5(2), 255-275.
Miao, H., S. Ramchander, T. Wang, and D. Yang, 2017. Role of index futures on China's stock markets: Evidence from price discovery and volatility spillover. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 44(September), 13-26.
Odean, T., 1998. Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775-1798.
Pan, M. S. and L. P. Hsueh, 1998. Transmission of stock returns and volatility between the US and Japan: Evidence from the stock index futures markets. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 5(3), 211-225.
Pikulina, E., L. Renneboog, and P. N. Tobler, 2017. Overconfidence and investment:
An experimental approach. Journal of Corporate Finance, 43(April), 175-192.
Qin, J., 2020. Regret-based capital asset pricing model. Journal of Banking &
Finance, 114(May), DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105784.
Schwarz, G., 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464.
Shefrin, H. and M. Statman, 1985. The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance, 40(3), 777-790.
Shyy, G., V. Vijayraghavan, and B. Scott-Quinn, 1996. A further investigation of the lead-lag relationship between the cash market and stock index futures market with the use of bid/ask quotes: The case of France. Journal of Futures Markets, 16(4), 405-420.
Strahilevitz, M. A., T. Odean, and B. M. Barber, 2011. Once burned, twice shy: How
38
naive learning, counterfactuals, and regret affect the repurchase of stocks previously sold. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(Special Interdisciplinary Issue), S102-S120.
Tse, Y., 1999. Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 19(8), 911-930.
Von Beschwitz, B. and M. Massa, 2020. Biased short: Short sellers' disposition effect and limits to arbitrage. Journal of Financial Markets, DOI:
10.1016/j.finmar.2019.100512.
Wang, D., J. TU, X. Chang, and S. Li, 2017. The lead–lag relationship between the spot and futures markets in China. Quantitative Finance, 17(9), 1447-1456.
Wong, K. P., 2011. Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin, Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2483-2487.
Wu, S. W., J. Dutta, and C. Y. Huang, 2018. The systematic biases in decision-making in the mutual-fund markets: Market states and disposition effect. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2018.1537538.
Yadav, S., 2018. Spot and futures stock market in India: Co-integration. Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance, 8(3), 31-39.
Yao, C. Z. and Q. W. Lin, 2017. The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 478(July), 188-204.
Zhang, X., J. Liang, and F. He, 2019. Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 58(December), DOI:
10.1016/j.pacfin.2019.101215.
Zhong, M., A. F. Darrat, and R. Otero, 2004. Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico. Journal of Banking &
39
Finance, 28(12), 3037-3054.