第五章 結果與討論
6.2 建議
1. 本研究使用 QUAL2K 作為水質模擬模式，為美國環保署所發展之 軟體，建構在 Excel 介面下，雖改善操作介面，但運算時間過長，
提高模擬次數將使整體模擬時間大幅增加，若改以 QUAL2E 或其 他水質模擬軟體，可減少模擬時間。
2. 研究僅針對河川水資源調配及河川水質管理作探討，而未考慮成本 效益等因素，未來能整合其他因素考量，將可使系統更趨完善。
參考文獻
中文部分：
行政院環保署，『環境水質監測年報(民國95年1至12月)－河川水質篇』，
水質年報，2007
周乃昉，『高屏地區區域水資源最佳營運之研究(一)』，國科會專題研究 計畫，NSC 84-221-006-063，1995
林亮君，『不確定環境下的河川總量管制策略』，碩士論文，朝陽科技 大學環境工程與管理系，2005
南區水資源局，『曾文水庫越域引水工程計畫效益分析』，南區水資源 局宣導文宣，2007
屏東縣環境保護局，『東港溪流域「龍東橋」及「潮州大橋」、高屏溪 流域「里港大橋」測站水質改善整體規劃及細部設計計畫』，期末 報告，2005
胡秉軒，『系統動態於水資源管理之應用』，碩士論文，朝陽科技大學 環境工程與管理系，2005
康晉展，『新店溪水質模擬與不確定性分析』，碩士論文，國立台灣大 學環境工程研究所，1995
張乃斌、蕭代基、溫清光、許牧彥、楊磊，『事業廢水管理制度研究－
流域污染源削減最佳化策略與管理制度之研究』，研究報告，行政 院環保署，1999
張秀琴，『利用QUAL2E水質模式模擬淡水河系興建污水下水道之水質 影響』，碩士論文，中原大學土木工程學系，2004
張家豪，『動差法與馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法之頻率估測』，碩士論文，國 立清華大學通訊工程研究所，2005
陳明田，『貝氏方法選取最佳模式---GARCH與門檻GARCH模式』，碩 士論文，逢甲大學統計與精算研究所，2002
陳曉芬，『南部地區節約用水之經濟效益模擬分析』，碩士論文，國立 成功大學資源工程研究所，2001
陳臻祺，『馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法應用於河川砂礫啟動模式參數不確定性 之降低』，碩士論文，國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所，
2006
陳鶴文，『柔性計算科學應用於永續性水資源管理之研究』，博士論文，
國立成功大學環境工程學系，1999
黃聖授，『高屏溪涵容能力之評估』，碩士論文，國立中山大學環境工 程研究所，2000
黃鈺珊，『高屏溪流域水資源永續發展政策規劃之系統動力學研究』，
碩士論文，國立中山大學公共事務管理研究所，2001
甯蜀光、陳鶴文、張乃斌，『水庫容量最佳化設計』，第19屆環境規劃 與管理研討會論文，2006
劉峰旗，『具條件變異數異質性之自我迴歸模式其最佳子集之選取』，
碩士論文，逢甲大學統計與精算研究所，2002
劉德忠，『水資源預測及規劃之研究』，碩士論文，國立國防管理學院 資源管理研究所，2003
劉醇慶，『利用QUAL2K探討蘭陽溪氮鹽削減之影響』，碩士論文，國
立東華大學環境政策研究所，2006
鄭詩音，『我國水污染防治制度之比較研究』，碩士論文，國立中山大 學經濟學研究所，2003
謝盈弘，『馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法在外匯選擇權定價的應用』，碩士論文，
國立政治大學統計學研究所，2002
謝進南，『高屏溪水資源系統供水可用度分析研究』，財團法人曹公農 業水利研究發展基金會，1999
顏榮祥，『台灣南部地區跨流域水資源統籌調配動態模式建立之研究』，
博士論文，國立成功大學資源工程研究所，2001
英文部分：
Arhonditsis, George B., Papantou, Dimitra., Zhang, Weitao., Perhar, Gurbir., Massos, Evangelia., Shi, Molu. Bayesian calibration of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models and benefits for environmental management, Journal of Marine Systems 73 (2008), 8–30
Ashton, P. J., van Zyl, F. C., Heath, R. G. Water quality management in the Crocodile River catchment, Eastern Transvaal, South Africa, Water Science and Technology 32 N0.5–6 (1995), 201–208
Bergin, Michelle S., Milford, Jana B. Application of Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis to a Lagrangian photochemical air quality model, Atmospheric Environment 34 (2000), 781–792
Blasone, Roberta-Serena., Madsen, Henrik., Rosbjerg, Dan. Uncertainty assessment of integrated distributed hydrological models using GLUE with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, Journal of Hydrology 353 (2008), 18–32
Chapra, S.C., Pelletier, G.J., Tao, H. QUAL2K: A Modeling Framework for Simulating River and Stream Water Quality, Documentation and Users Manual Version 2.07 (2007)
Drolc, A., Koncan, J. Zagorc. Calibration of QUAL2E Model for the Sava River (Slovenia), Water Science and Technology 40 No.10 (1999), 111–118
Dungumaro, Esther W., Madulu, Ndalahwa F. Public participation in
integrated water resources management:the case of Tanzania, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 28 (2003) 1009–1014.
Galbiati, L., Bouraoui, F., Elorza, F.J., Bidoglio, G. Modeling diffuse pollution loading into a Mediterranean lagoon: Development and application of an integrated surface–subsurface model tool, Ecological Modelling 193 (2006), 4–18
Gallagher, Mark., Doherty, John. Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis for a watershed model, Environmental Modelling and Software 22 (2007), 1000–1020
Golightly, A., Wilkinson, D.J. Bayesian inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusion models observed with error, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 52 (2008), 1674–1693
Jia, Yangwen., Niu, Cunwen., Wang, Hao. Integrated modeling and assessment of water resources and water environment in the Yellow River Basin, Journal of Hydro-Environment Research 1 (2007), 12–19 Khare, Deepak., Jat, M.K., Deva Sunder, J. Assessment of water resources
allocation options: Conjunctive use planning in a link canal command, Resources, Conservation and Recycling 51(2007), 487–506.
Korol, Rafalina., Kolanek, Agnieszka.. Stronska, Marzenna. Trends in water quality variations in the Odra River the day before implementation of the Water Framework Directive, Limnologica 35 (2005), 151–159
Lee, Chih-Sheng., Chang, Shui-Ping. Interactive fuzzy optimization for an
economic and environmental balance in a river system, Water Research 39 (2005), 221–231.
Lee, Chih-Sheng., Wen, Ching-Gung. Fuzzy goal programming approach for water quality management in a river basin, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 89 No.2 (1997), 181–192
Miloradov, R. M., Marjanovic, P., Cukic, Z. Water resources assessment as the basic tool for sustainable and environmentally sound river basin management, Water Science and Technology 32 No.5-6 (1995), 45–53.
Munkin, Murat K., Trivedi, Pravin K. Bayesian analysis of the ordered probit model with endogenous selection, Journal of Econometrics 143 (2008), 334–348
Norvotny, Vadimir. Integrated water quality management, Water Science and Technology 33 No. 4–5 (1996), 1–7
Paliwal, Ritu., Sharma, Prateek., Kansal, Arun. Water quality modelling of the river Yamuna (India) using QUAL2E-UNCAS, Journal of Environmental Management 83 (2007), 131–144
Palmieri, Vivian., de Carvalho, Roberto José. Qual2e model for the Corumbataí River, ecological modelling 198 (2006), 269–275
Papadopoulos, Christos E., Yeung, Hoi. Uncertainty estimation and Monte Carlo simulation method, Flow Measurement and Instrumentation 12 (2001), 291–298
Park, Seok Soon., Lee, Yong Seok. A water quality modeling study of the
Nakdong River, Korea, Ecological Modelling 152 (2002), 65–75.
Reis Jr.,Dirceu S., Stedinger, Jery R. Bayesian MCMC flood frequency analysis with historical information, Journal of Hydrology 313 (2005), 97–116.
Shangguan, Zhouping., Shao, Mingan., Horton, Robert., Lei, Tingwu., Lin Qin., Ma, Jianqing. A model for regional optimal allocation of irrigation water resources under deficit irrigation and its applications, Agricultural Water Management 52(2002), 139-154.
Simonovic, Slobodan P. World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources, Journal of Environmental Management 66 (2002), 249–267 Tredoux, Gideon., King, Peter., Cavé, Lisa. Managing urban wastewater for
maximising water resource utilization, Water Science and Technology 39 No.10-11 (1999), 353–356
Unami, K., Kawachi, T. Universal optimization of water quality management strategy, Advances in Water Resources 26 (2003), 465–472.
Wang, Q.J. A Bayesian method for multi-site stochastic data generation:Dealing with non-concurrent and missing data, variable transformation and parameter uncertainty, Environmental Modelling and Software 23 (2008), 412–421.
Xevi, E., Khan ,S. A multi-objective optimisation approach to water management, Journal of Environmental Management 77 (2005), 269–277.
Yuceer, Mehmet., Karadurmus, Erdal., Berber, Ridvan. Simulation of river streams: Comparison of a new technique with QUAL2E, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 46 (2007), 292–305
網路部份：
水文水資源資料管理供應系統，http://gweb.wra.gov.tw/wrweb/
行政院環保署環境資料庫，http://gweb.wra.gov.tw/wrweb/
經濟部水利署，http://www.wra.gov.tw/default.asp 美國環境保護署，http://www.epa.gov/
附錄
附表1 續 荖濃溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表1 續 荖濃溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表1 續 荖濃溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩
十月
Q100 Q90 Q80 Q70 Q60 Q50 Q40 Q30 Q20 Q10 Q0
Q90 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 40.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 58.3% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 22.2% 33.3% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 50.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0%
十一月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q100 十一月
Q90 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 58.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 41.7% 66.7% 6.3% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 56.3% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.3% 66.7% 50.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
十二月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
附表2 隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表2 續 隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表2 續 隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表2 續 隘寮溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩
十月
Q100 Q90 Q80 Q70 Q60 Q50 Q40 Q30 Q20 Q10 Q0
Q90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 66.7% 25.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 16.7% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 50.0% 71.4% 50.0% 60.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 10.0% 20.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%
十一月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q100 十一月
Q90 50.0% 66.7% 28.6% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 33.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 50.0% 0.0% 57.1% 50.0% 33.3% 17.6% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 70.6% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 25.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0%
十二月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
附表3 旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表3 續 旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表3 續 旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
附表3 續 旗山溪流量馬可夫鏈轉換矩陣
十月
Q100 Q90 Q80 Q70 Q60 Q50 Q40 Q30 Q20 Q10 Q0
Q90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
十一月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q100 十一月
Q90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q60 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q30 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q20 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
十二月
Q0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%