• 沒有找到結果。

第五章 結論與建議

第二節 建議

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第二節 建議

壹、 政策建議

本研究透過實證分析,發現新聞情緒與市場參與者預期呈現中高程度相關,

且新聞得以透過特定語調或強調特定事件以傳達或影響市場參與者心理預期,進 而造成房地產市場價格產生波動,因此,透過新聞情緒之監測,可以觀察不動產 市場參與者意向,瞭解市場未來趨勢。對於政府而言,透過監測新聞情緒之變化,

不僅得以增進對市場態度及潛在之動向之掌握,將新聞情緒納入市場分析範疇以 進行政策擬定及決策之依據,更得以提早作出相對應之政策。而新聞情緒分析快 速且即時之特性,亦得以加快政府對於市場之掌握,其所需之成本更大幅低於以 往進行市場調查所需耗費之人力與時間成本。

另外,經格蘭傑因果關係檢定之結果可發現,新聞情緒變數與市場參與者預 期間存在交互影響之關係,是以新聞情緒除傳達市場消息外,更可能加深市場參 與者對於未來景氣之態度,造成過度解釋、市場價格波動加劇之情形,因此,政 府對於新聞媒體之相關報導亦應有所規範,避免新聞媒體因不實或跨大報導造成 市場浮動、不穩定之情形。

貳、 後續研究建議

一、 各縣市房地產相關新聞情緒與地方次市場之分析

本研究受限於資料取得之限制,地方房地產新聞不足,無法將所有新聞劃分 為各縣市進行地方新聞與各地方次市場之關聯性分析,倘未來新聞資訊取得來源 更為多元,擴及各地方房地產相關新聞,則可針對各縣市之新聞進行情緒分析,

並探討其與各縣市房地產市場間之關聯,以觀察各縣市房地產市場潛在趨勢之差 異。

二、 增加其他新聞資訊來源進行短期之情緒分析

本研究欲瞭解長期之房價與新聞情緒間之關聯,為維持研究期間內新聞數量

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之穩定性,故僅得就國內唯一公開之聯合報系相關新聞資訊進行分析。然各報章 雜誌對市場態度可能存在些許差異,受限於資料限制,雖無法對各報章雜誌做長 期的情緒研究,然未來後續研究如欲瞭解短期內之新聞與房地產市場間之關聯,

則可以網路爬蟲抓取每日各大報相關之房地產新聞進行分析,除了可增進新聞來 源之多元性與代表性,亦可以掌握各報紙閱聽人對於市場態度之差異。

三、 增加其他媒體媒介進行分析

隨著電視與網路之普及,新聞節目、社群網站、網路影音、輿論等媒介之影 響力及市占率與日俱增,除新聞外,如能將多元的媒介有關不動產之訊息納入分 析範疇,將更能深入市場參與者之訊息途徑,增進對於市場參與者心理預期之分 析。

四、 加入各詞彙之詞極進行情緒分析

本研究依循 Soo(2015)之方式,僅將相關情緒詞彙分類成正、負面情緒進行 分析,未來後續研究如能將各詞彙之語意強度納入分析,將得以深化情緒分析之 精確度,並增進對於各項質化資料之解釋。

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