有無考量氣候變遷下中部區域缺水因應策略對照表

摘-24

為每日20、2.7、5.1及8.8萬立方公尺，故為滿足彰化地區 之供需缺口總量，建議之調適策略為採用彰化海水淡化廠。

若考量需滿足A2最劣情況供需缺口(每日16.64萬立方公 尺)，彰化海水淡化廠仍足以滿足其供需缺口。。

4、雲林地區A1B最劣情況供需缺口總量為每日5.03萬立方公 尺，根據多準則評估分析結果，調適方案優先執行順序分 別為雲林自來水管線汰換及雲林生活節水，各方案之增供 水量(或節省水量)分別為每日1.86及4.15萬立方公尺，故 為滿足台中地區之供需缺口總量，建議之調適策略組合為 採用雲林自來水管線汰換及雲林生活節水。若考量需滿足 A2最劣情況供需缺口(每日14.79萬立方公尺)，雲林自來 水管線汰換及雲林生活節水已無法滿足其供需缺口，需透 過其它調適策略(如跨區支援或地下水抽用等)來因應之。

摘表 8 有無考量氣候變遷下中部區域缺水因應策略對照表

情境 苗栗 台中 彰化 雲林 南投

無考量氣候變遷

(經理計畫) 天花湖水庫

天花湖水庫、大 甲大安聯合運 用輸水管線

項嘴人工湖 湖山水庫 項嘴潭人 工湖

A1B 最劣情境 (經理計畫+調適 計畫)

天花湖水庫

天花湖水庫、大 甲大安聯合運 用輸水管線、福 田污水再生 廠、生活節水

項嘴人工 湖、彰化海水 淡化場

湖山水庫、自 來水管線汰 換、生活節水

項嘴潭人 工湖

Abstract

Recently, owing to global climate change, extreme storm and drought happen frequently. The regional water distribution suffers a challenge. Therefore, how to control the water supply risk through risk analysis is an important issue.

This project aims to evaluate the spatial vulnerability distribution of water resources and propose the adaptive plan for centeral region of Taiwan. The main tasks of this project are water demanced senarios estimation, Rainfall trend analysis, , climate change impact analysis and adapative strategy proposing and analysis.

I. Future water demand senarios estimation

For furture domestic use water demand estimation(2031) in A1B secnario, the result shows Miaoli demand grows 3.4*10⁴ CMD as much as that without climate change, Taichung demand is the same as that without climate change, Changhua demand grows 5.9*10⁴ ~7.2*10⁴ CMD as much as that without climate change, Yunlin demand grows 5.4*10⁴ CMD as much as that without climate change, Nantou demand grows 3.6*10⁴ CMD as much as that without climate change.

For furture irrgation use water demand estimation(2031) in A1B secnario, the result shows irrgation use water demand change -1~3.35% as much as that without climate change .

II. Rainfall trend analysis

This study use Mann-Kendall Test, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt Test and Kruskal-Wallis Test to test the precipitaion, indensity and

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drought days variation trend. The result shows precipitaion doesn’t variate obviously during whole year, wet season or drought season.

But indensity and drought days have variated obviously during whole year, wet season or drought season. The variation points almost happened during 1980~1990.

III.Climate change impact analysis

The main tasks of climate impact analysis are sufacewater supply potentiality analysis, sufacewater supply system ability analysis and groundwater supply potentiality analysis under A1B、

A2 and B1 scenario. CSMK35, GFCM21, MIMR, MPEH5 and MRCGCM GCMs are seclect to be a respective for futrue (2020~2039) climate condition.

1. For sufacewater supply potentiality analysis, Zhonggang River potentiality change -9~10.6% that of without climate chang, Houlong River potentiality change -10.4~13.4% that of without climate chang, Dajia River potentiality change -21.9~17.5% that of without climate chang, Daan River potentiality change -19.7~16.3% that of without climate chang, Wu River potentiality change -21.7~17.8% that of without climate chang, Zhuoshui River potentiality change -82~141.1%

that of without climate chang.

2. For supply system ability analysis, Miaoli water deficit is 8.04*10⁴ CMD under A1B worse case. Taichung water deficit is 13*10⁴ CMD under A1B worse case. Changhua water deficit is 7.29*10⁴ CMD under A1B worse case. Yunlin water deficit is 8.66*10⁴ CMD under A1B worse case. Nantou water deficit

is 3.54*10⁴ CMD under A1B worse case. The result shows existent supply system in central region can’t fulfill future demand on 2031. It need proprose new strategies to improve the water shortage problem.

3. For groundwater supply potentiality analysis, Miaoli grounder potentiality change -5.47~8.07% that of without climate chang, Taichung grounder potentiality change -4.80~3.68% that of without climate chang. Zhuoshui River Plain grounder potentiality change -1.77~3.91% that of without climate chang.

IV. Adapative strategy proposing and analysis

Based on multi-criteria analysis and water deficit analysis, the optimal adapative strategies combination is proposed as below.

For Miaoli and Nantou, the furture demand(2031) can be fulfilled under Tiahuahu reservoir and Niaozueitan artificial lake is finished. Proposing adapative strategy is not necessary.

For Taichung, the furture demand(2031) can’t be fulfilled under Tiahuahu Reservoir and Water Transport Engineering of Conjunctive Use are finished. The optimal adapative strategies combination for A1B worse case are Water Saving and Futian Domestic Wastewater Treatment Plant. The optimal adapative strategies combination for A2 worse case are Water Saving , Futian Domestic Wastewater Treatment Plant and tap water pipe replacement.

For Changhua, the furture demand(2031) can’t be fulfilled under Niaozueitan artificial lake is finished. The optimal adapative

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strategy for A1B worse case and A2 worse case is seawater desalinization.

For Yunlin, the furture demand(2031) can’t be fulfilled under Hushan Reservoir is finished. The optimal adapative strategies combination for A1B worse case are Water Saving and tap water pipe replacement.. The optimal adapative strategies combination for A2 worse case are Water Saving , tap water pipe replacement and other strategies(such as groundwater pumping and conjunctive use).

Keyword〆climate change，vulnerability，hazard，water shortage risk map