第五章 選民的一致與分裂投票
第二節 檢討與建議
一、檢證兩票交互作用的後續發展
雖然本文的多層模型結果並未證實兩票交互作用的存在，但如同本文所提 及，Herron 等學者(2001; 2005)以在模型中增加控制變數的方式，並無法解決依 變數與自變數互為因果的「內生性」問題，也就是政黨在單一選區提名候選人參 選會增加比例代表的選票。但政黨之所以在單一選區中提名，卻也是因為政黨在 該選區具有高度的版圖勢力。兩者之間誰為因？誰為果？實難以釐清。雖然 Maeda(2008)採用「處理效應模型」解決「內生性」的問題，並否證了兩票交互 作用的存在，但此一模型尚無法適用於僅舉行過一次混合選制的台灣。應如何檢 證即有待後續的發展。
二、多層模型與類別選擇模型的結合
黃紀（2008b）曾針對單一選區兩票制下選民的投票抉擇研究，提出「多層 混合勝算對數模型」(a multilevel mixed-logit model for voter choices under the MMM electoral systems，簡稱 MMXL)。嘗試將現行各自獨立發展的「多層模型」
與「類別選擇模型」(discrete choice model)相結合。除了依據選民握有兩張選票，
以及選民與選區之間相互隸屬的階層關係，藉由多層模型將總體層次變數同時納 入考量外，在類別選擇模型部分也將採取「混合勝算對數模型」，將個體層次的
「選民特徵變數」與「選項特徵變數」同時納入分析，並得以放寬對IIA 的假定。
若能將這兩種模型相結合，不但得以兼顧選區多層結構與兩票雙重抉擇的特性，
也 使 模 型 更 具 彈 性 及 務 實 ， 以 避 免 模 型 估 計 與 推 論 的 偏 誤 （ 黃 紀 2008b, 141-146）。目前這模型架構雖然僅止於統計學理的推演，但無疑將會是未來單一 選區兩票制下選民投票抉擇的重要分析方法。
三、長期追蹤的持續研究
本文針對單一選區兩票制下台灣選民的投票抉擇進行探討，但選民投票抉擇 的考量因素並非一成不變，制度的變革、外在環境的變化，乃至於選民個人心理 態度的成長，皆可能改變選民的投票抉擇考量（黃紀 2008a）。其中，從 SNTV 選制改變為單一選區兩票制，是否對選民的投票抉擇造成影響？台灣採取混合選 舉制度後，選民會不會因對選制更為熟悉而改變投票模式？這些問題皆屬於長期
追蹤(longitudinal)的研究課題，也需要更豐富的定群追蹤資料(panel data)來進行 分析與檢證。
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