第六章 討論
6.6 結論
本研究以全球猴痘以及新冠肺炎開放資料、以及臺灣地區傳染病實證資料 為例，發展新興與再現傳染病監測方法，首先透過由族群層次建立貝氏 DAG 之 SEIR、SIR 模式評估傳染病經介入措施效益，並藉透過四階段馬可夫連結至個人 之監測架構，最後由貝氏 DAG 階層模型評估介入措施包含疫苗以、NPI 與藥物治 療效益。以本架構下之結合多階段馬可夫模式多個層次之傳染病監測，為運用隨 機過程與 DAG 模型所建立之創新方法，有助於完整評估傳染病傳播風險以及發展 個人化之防治策略，以達精準防疫之目標。
圖二十、資料模擬不同自我相關函數 (a)
𝝀 = 𝟎. 𝟑 ， N=100 𝝀 = 𝟎. 𝟖 ， N=100 𝝀 = 𝟏 ， N=100
124
(b)
𝝀 = 𝟎. 𝟑 ， N=1000 𝝀 = 𝟎. 𝟖 ， N=1000 𝝀 = 𝟏 ， N=1000
(c) Covid-19 資料 New zeland(2021/01/01-)
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
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