第五章 結論與建議
5.2 研究貢獻、限制與建議
本論文主要之貢獻是延續 Kamara, Lou, and Sadka (2008) 之論文研究,並 將研究時間拉長至 2018 年底,觀察過去流動性 beta 和報酬性 beta 這兩個變數是 否有延續過去的趨勢。此外,在本論文中加入周轉率這一新的變數來觀察其時間 趨勢、與其他變數之交互關係、與機構投資人持股比例之關係,讓讀者與後續研 究者更瞭解以周轉率這個變數為切入點來觀察整個市場,是否有不同的見解。最 後,本論文除了將市場上的公司以規模區分外,更利用了股票報酬波動性來分組 探討,為後續研究者開啟”公司的股票波動性是否影響投資人交易趨勢、習慣”
等議題。
在研究限制方面,本研究在探討機構投資人持有比例與周轉率 beta 之關係 時,我們的資料是從 1981 年開始計算,然而我們的周轉率 beta 是從 1963 年開始 計算,由於受限於資料庫的資料不足,因此少了快 20 年的樣本。另外,在 Kamara, Lou, and Sadka (2008) 之論文中,有將機構投資人分類成更細的類型(銀行、保 險業等等),但礙於本論文研究資料庫之限制,因此並未能取得更詳細的研究資料。
未來若有相關研究,建議將機構投資人分類成更詳細的類型(銀行、保險業等 等),並且能加入不同衡量流動性的指標來度測這些指標的 beta 時間趨勢,以及 這些指標的 beta 交互關係、以及這些指標的 beta 與機構投資人持有比例之關係 等。
參考文獻
Acharya, Viral V., and Lasse Heje Pedersen. “Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk.” Journal of Financial Economics 77, (2005): 375–410.
Amihud, Yakov. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects.”
Journal of Financial Markets 5, (2002): 31–56.
Amihud, Yakov, and Haim Mendelson. “Asset Pricing and the Bid-Ask Spread.” Journal of Financial Economics 17, (1986): 223–49.
Amihud, Yakov, and Haim Mendelson. “Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury 0000Securities.” The Journal of Finance 46, (1991): 1411–25.
Anthony, John, Paul Docherty, Doowon Lee, and Abul Shamsuddin. “Liquidity Commonality in the Secondary Corporate Loan Market.” Economics Letters 161 (2017): 10–14.
Badrinath, S. G., and Sunil Wahal. “Momentum Trading by Institutions.” The Journal of Finance 57, (2002): 2449–78.
Benzennou, Bouchra, Owain ap Gwilym, and Gwion Williams. “Commonality in Liquidity 0000across Options and Stock Futures Markets.” Finance Research Letters 32 (2020):
101096.
Brennan, Michael J., and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam. “Market Microstructure and Asset Pricing: On the Compensation for Illiquidity in Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics 41, (1996): 441–64.
Brockman, Paul, and Dennis Y. Chung. “Commonality in Liquidity: Evidence from an Order-Driven Market Structure.” Journal of Financial Research 25, no. 4 (2002):
521–39.
Brunnermeier, Markus K, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. “Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity.” Working Paper. Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research, (2007).
Chordia, Tarun, Richard Roll, and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam. “Commonality in Liquidity.”
Journal of Financial Economics 56, (2000): 3–28.
Coughenour, Jay F., and Mohsen Saad. “Common Market Makers and Commonality in Liquidity,” (2004).
Coughenour, Jay, and Mohsen Saad. “Common Market Makers and Commonality in Liquidity.” Journal of Financial Economics 73 (2004): 37–69.
Hasbrouck, Joel, and Duane J. Seppi. “Common Factors in Prices, Order Flows, and Liquidity.” Journal of Financial Economics 59, (2001): 383–411.
Huberman, Gur, and Dominika Halka. “Systematic Liquidity.” Journal of Financial Research 24, (2001): 161–78.
Isshaq, Zangina, and Robert Faff. “Does the Uncertainty of Firm-Level Fundamentals Help Explain Cross-Sectional Differences in Liquidity Commonality?” Journal of Banking &
Finance 68 (2016): 153–61.
Kamara, Avraham, Xiaoxia Lou, and Ronnie Sadka. “The Divergence of Liquidity Commonality in the Cross-Section of Stocks.” Journal of Financial Economics 89, (2008): 444–66.
Koch, Andrew, Stefan Ruenzi, and Laura Starks. “Commonality in Liquidity: A
Demand-Side Explanation.” The Review of Financial Studies 29, (2016): 1943–74.
Korajczyk, Robert A., and Ronnie Sadka. “Pricing the Commonality across Alternative Measures of Liquidity.” Journal of Financial Economics 87, (2008): 45–72.
Li, Chenlu, Ruochen Li, and Yuan Tian. “Measuring Liquidity Commonality of Currencies in the Emerging Markets.” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 0, (2019): 1–20.
Liu, Weimin. “A Liquidity-Augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model.” Journal of Financial Economics 82, (2006): 631–71.
Longstaff, Francis A., and Eduardo S. Schwartz. “Valuing American Options by Simulation:
A Simple Least-Squares Approach,” (2001).
Moshirian, Fariborz, Xiaolin Qian, Claudia Koon Ghee Wee, and Bohui Zhang. “The Determinants and Pricing of Liquidity Commonality around the World.” Journal of Financial Markets 33 (2017): 22–41.
O’Hara, Maureen. “Presidential Address: Liquidity and Price Discovery.” The Journal of Finance 58, (2003): 1335–54.
Pástor, Ľuboš, and Robert F. Stambaugh. “Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns.”
Journal of Political Economy 111, (2003): 642–85.
Sadka, Ronnie. “Momentum and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomalies: The Role of Liquidity Risk.” Journal of Financial Economics 80, (2006): 309–49.
Sadka, Ronnie, and Anna Scherbina. “Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity*.”
The Journal of Finance 62, (2007): 2367–2403..
附錄
Appendix 1-1 流動性 beta 歷年變化 (以市值分組)
Small Large Large minus Small
Date mean t-stat mean t-stat mean t-stat p-value 1963Q1 0.509 0.224 0.553 0.530 0.043 0.222 0.133
1974Q1 0.543 0.231 0.535 0.854 -0.008 0.018 0.150
1986Q4 0.412 0.323 0.670 1.215 0.258 5.762 <0.001
1999Q3 0.312 0.231 0.528 0.322 0.216 4.480 <0.001
2012Q2 0.314 0.714 0.831 2.710 0.517 9.893 <0.001
Small Large Large minus Small
Date mean t-stat mean t-stat mean t-stat p-value
1966Q4 0.725 0.940 0.810 1.083 0.085 0.582 0.116
1979Q3 0.641 0.874 0.852 2.833 0.211 3.594 <0.001
1992Q2 0.521 0.857 0.905 3.176 0.384 9.515 <0.001
2005Q1 0.562 1.420 0.851 1.614 0.289 6.326 <0.001
2017Q4 0.556 1.050 0.847 2.634 0.291 6.617 <0.001
Small Large Large minus Small
Date mean t-stat mean t-stat mean t-stat p-value
1972Q2 0.519 0.533 0.727 1.088 0.208 6.276 <0.001
1985Q1 0.464 0.560 0.834 1.574 0.370 10.273 <0.001
1997Q4 0.540 1.117 0.714 1.442 0.173 10.313 <0.001
2010Q3 0.610 1.132 0.730 1.478 0.120 5.447 <0.001
Small Large Large minus Small
Date mean t-stat mean t-stat mean t-stat p-value 1963Q1 0.597 0.335 0.627 0.358 0.031 6.674 <0.001
1965Q1 0.604 0.295 0.621 0.324 0.017 7.966 <0.001
1977Q4 0.651 1.265 0.497 0.755 -0.154 2.941 0.003
1990Q3 0.639 1.316 0.617 1.002 -0.022 3.311 <0.001
2003Q2 0.657 0.810 0.606 0.756 -0.051 2.862 0.004
2016Q1 0.872 3.339 0.645 1.814 -0.228 2.473 0.014 2016Q2 0.895 3.794 0.684 2.312 -0.211 1.583 0.114 2016Q3 0.889 2.790 0.637 1.536 -0.252 1.727 0.084 2016Q4 0.909 4.611 0.727 2.845 -0.183 1.180 0.238 2017Q1 0.883 2.827 0.651 1.523 -0.232 1.489 0.137 2017Q2 0.889 3.089 0.701 1.772 -0.188 1.593 0.111 2017Q3 0.932 3.107 0.765 1.847 -0.167 2.203 0.028 2017Q4 0.914 4.524 0.664 2.447 -0.249 -0.507 0.612 2018Q1 0.849 3.169 0.591 1.518 -0.258 3.715 <0.001 2018Q2 0.849 2.918 0.611 1.556 -0.238 2.987 0.003 2018Q3 0.889 3.125 0.712 1.777 -0.177 2.613 0.009 2018Q4 0.907 4.483 0.806 2.988 -0.101 1.185 0.237 2019Q1 0.835 3.133 0.666 1.711 -0.169 1.011 0.313 2019Q2 0.876 3.604 0.604 1.717 -0.272 -0.318 0.751 2019Q3 0.827 3.909 0.648 2.113 -0.178 0.254 0.799 2019Q4 0.923 4.552 0.716 2.728 -0.208 -0.403 0.687