6.2 建 議
針對本研究所建立的作業工期評估模式，建議未來可朝下列研究 方向繼續進行：
一、模擬結果與實際執行結果之比較統計尋求風險權值
本研究因所選案例施工已近完工階段，模擬結果無法適時回 饋工地以調整排程，亦無法進行模擬結果與實際執行結果之比較 以修正風險權值，有待後續研究的補充，以建立標準作業估時的 合理風險權值。
二、選取各種適用機率分佈型態進行模擬比較尋求更佳模式基礎 本研究因時間有限僅採用三角形機率分佈為模式基礎，雖然 模擬結果已可信賴，然而未能將各種可用機率分佈納入比較模擬 以凸顯採用三角形機率分佈的簡易及精確則有待後續研究的補 足。
依據本研究之研究成果，對於公共工程工期合理化之研究課題，
本研究建議可進行下列之後續研究：
一、以風險分析概念，建立公共工程合理工期評估制度
為解決長期以來，國內公共工程因為工期訂定不當導致執行 效率不彰。建議公共工程主事單位在工程規劃階段，以風險分析 概念，實施合理工期評估制度，以確立所訂定工期之可行性。
二、建立公共工程各施工作業項目歷史工期資料庫
利用公共工程經費電腦估價系統（PCCES）依綱要編碼建立 公共工程各施工作業項目歷史工期資料，俾便統計分析，作為爾 後公共工程成本/工期估算之基準。
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