This research sought answers to one major and a number of narrow study questions. If it needs to offer concise answers to the questions posed in the opening pages of this research:
Main research question: What is the impact of energy security on China-US relations in the GME?
Energy security concerns have defined China’s contemporary relations in the Middle East. Because of certain geopolitical factors, China has thus far had to confront the United States on various levels (security, trade, human rights etc.) and areas (Iran, Sudan, Syria etc.) in the region. In this respect, China’s energy strategy has led to a strategic competition with the US in the Middle East in which Beijing’s economics-led policy clashed with the US’ security-led policy. Unlike the expectations of the US, China did not move toward marketization of its energy policy over time; rather, for various reasons, it maintained high-politics approach to energy. The US dominance in the Middle East, in the meantime, has continued to put China’s vital interests in danger.
Consequently, the impact mentioned in the question has remained largely negative.
Looking into the future, given the geostrategic developments in the Middle East as well as the ongoing power shift, the China-US relations in the Middle East are expected to remain contentious, if not altogether conflictual.
Four major sub questions have been derived from the primary question:
1. What internal and external dynamics shape China’s energy policy in the Middle East?
In essence, the internal dynamics of China’s energy security policy include economic sustainability and industrial development. The external dynamics are the provision of sea lanes and overland security, the US naval dominance in the Middle East, political stability in the source countries/areas, geopolitical considerations such as alliance-making and regional economic and security blocs, resource nationalism in energy exporting countries, etc.
188
2. How do China’s energy security policy in the Middle East impact on US-China relations?
The impact, as demonstrated, is negative because of the existing discord resulting from China’s economics-driven (soft-handed) energy policy which clashes with US’ security-driven (hard-handed) policy.
3. What are the consequences of the policy discord?
The immediate consequence of the China-US policy discord is a strategic rivalry for interest protection and greater influence in the Middle East. This, in turn, results in the deterioration of the regional and global security environment. The Iranian nuclear crisis is a case in point. If the policy discord continues and further deepens, the existing cold rivalry might lead to a hot confrontation. In Syria, an early signs of such a confrontation are clearly seen, although the war is fought through proxies.
4. What would be the implications of China-US strategic rivalry in the Middle East for regional stability and peace?
Without a doubt, the primary implication of China-US strategic rivalry in the Middle East would be a general deterioration of security in the ME and a Cold-War style
confrontation. Many in the region certainly finds that the emerging China-Russia axis might in fact balance the dominant presence of the US and keep it from unilateral action unlike what happened in Iraq or Libya. In this respect, the emergence of a bi-polar structure is considered a promising trend. But it may also be a precarious trend because the response of the existing dominant power, the US, to the idea of being balanced out is unclear. As seen in the case of Syria, Washington may be forced to a less militaristic posture. But, the Syrian case could simply be an exemption. Also, the crisis is far from being resolved as yet. Hence, in a nutshell, ideally, China-US rivalry is not to be desired in the Middle East although unilateral hegemony is equally unwanted. A rivalry that leads to a polarization in the region would be even less desired. However, if consensus is reached between China and the US (in a form that the US would be willing to
accommodate the rising contenders), then bi-polarization could be avoided through multilateralization and multipolarization.
189
It is often the case that governments give out contradicting signals when it comes to the issues related to their core national interests to lessen the degree of predictability. Energy security is one of such issues (that relates directly to national security); hence the importance to keep the big picture in sight even when one concentrates on and analyzes the policy in a detailed and critical manner. This study has strived to maintain such an approach: It looked in detail at a number of policies and cases with regards to China’s energy security strategy and the China-US relationship in the Middle East. At the same time, it also attempted to offer a
theoretical framework to make sense of the developments taking place on the ground from a broader perspective by articulating the causal relationship between variables. For this purpose, this study offered national power and policy discord as explanatory variables, drawing largely on concepts offered by various power shift models. It has maintained that energy security and the China-US strategic competition in the Middle East is part of a bigger trend currently in effect within the China-US dyad. Hence, it is argued that China’s policy behavior and China-US relationship cannot be fully understood if the larger framework of power shift between China and the US is not kept in sight. In doing so, it is hoped that this research is not side-tracked by contesting and conflicting statements and policies of international actors that often take policy analysts by surprise or render their analyses short-lived and quickly irrelevant.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market report, China consumed near to 9.6 million b/d of oil in 2012 although it produced only 44% of that consumption while the rest was imported. Over half of this oil came from the Greater Middle East region. As for the future consumption, the BP Energy Outlook 2030 estimates that China’s dependency on the oil from the Middle East and North Africa will grow to 80% of its total import in less than two decades. Domestic consumption in China, on the other hand, will grow by 7 million b/d to 17 million b/d in 2030, surpassing the US in 2029. The US demand for oil, in the same period, is projected to fall by 2 million b/d to 16.5 million b/d while the North American region will go through an “energy renaissance” that involves both oil and natural gas.126 According to EIA’s
126 The US Energy Information Administration has published its estimation in October 2013 that the United States will be the world's top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2013, surpassing Russia in the production of natural gas and Saudi Arabia, of crude oil. For the United States and Russia, total petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbon production, in energy content terms, is almost evenly split between petroleum and
190
latest report on world energy outlook, China's steady growth in oil demand has led it to become the world's largest net oil importer, exceeding the United States in September 2013 for the first time in history.127 However, on yearly basis, US will continue to hold the title as the largest importer, although this may change as early as 2017. Hence, China’s dependency on the hydrocarbon resources is obvious and the importance of the Middle East in this picture is beyond dispute. Although alternative energy resources, renewables, increased efficiency standards and source diversification will contribute China’s energy mix and usage, taken alone, they will not be sufficient to meet the increase in the rate of domestic consumption. Indeed, the major driver for consumption will continue to be the increasingly affluent middle class who will use more electricity and rely on private transportation.
In the same period China has grown dependent on foreign hydrocarbon resources, the country also experienced a dramatic rise in national power (clearly a huge difference from the 1950s and 1960s when China was both weak and experienced energy insecurity), leading a number of studies to project an eventual overtaking of the US by China as the most powerful nation in the world first in economic and then military realms. The increasingly obvious nature of China-US transitional relations is also reflected in their interaction in the Middle East. Energy security, in this respect, has become one of the important aspects that tie China to the region just as it tied the United States in the 1930s when Franklin Roosevelt realized the strategic importance of the Middle East for the US national security and established a strategic
partnership with Saudi Arabia. As is voiced in the power transition theory, achieving parity with the US in various key areas and overtaking it in others, China has boosted its national power considerably, which started to reflect in the nation’s more active and independent foreign policy in the Middle East, as in elsewhere, although China still has maintained its policy of non-interventionism, harmonious relationship, and respect for sovereignty. As a matter of fact, China’s concept of non-interventionism in others’ domestic affairs has in many cases put it squarely against the United States.
natural gas. Saudi Arabia's production, on the other hand, heavily favors petroleum. In 2012, the country was second to Saudi Arabia in oil production and to Russia in natural gas production.
127 See the report here, htps://www.google.com.tw/?gws_rd=cr&ei=I4DHUpSUA42flQWd24H4Dg#q=china+has+
become+largets+oil+importer
191