國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
71
5. Conclusion
The U.S. has a long history of intervention and influence in Central American Affairs, a history that started way before the Cold War, but it would be strengthen during this period, and this period was essential for the ROC. After their retreat to the island of Formosa, the alliance with the U.S. would help them immensely during their conflict with the PRC for recognition. The U.S. didn’t just help them militarily or economically, but it used its international influence as a major power to help the ROC maintain their alliances with a number of countries that would constitute the most important bastion of allies for Taiwan. Latin America and the small countries of the Caribbean compose more than half of the total number of allies that Taiwan has nowadays, and Central America counts with the strongest countries supporting the ROC. There is no doubt of the importance of this region for the international status of the ROC.
The reason for this is the way the international system works. Over the years it has evolved towards one in which the support from other countries is fundamental when a region wants to become a sovereign state. The UN has become the most important entity to decide the statehood of wannabe states, and it can be said that their opinion is the most important variable to prove the statehood of any given entity. However, the organization is highly influenced by the power of its members, and many times political considerations would be more important when considering admission of a new state. This is the case with the ROC, a nation that according to international law has every criteria expected from any given territory to be considered a State in the international system. However, the UN –constrained by some powerful members- has rejected the statehood of Taiwan since 1971 by denying their entrance in the organization. The fact that the ROC was a founder member of it does not matter.
International law norms has been violated repeatedly over the years by powerful nations, who used the system in their benefit, no matter how it affected less powerful nations like Taiwan. The ROC didn’t have any other option but to circumvent the norms of recognition by creating a new approach to diplomacy that would allow them to stay in the system, without really being on it. Meanwhile, the international system accepted the status quo of Taiwan, leaving any dispute to be solved between the PRC and the ROC, the only requisite being that they have to avoid conflict at any cost. The
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
72
main problem with this is that the PRC’s opinion, as a major power, always weighted more than that of the ROC. Taiwan’s economic development and democratization would help them stay in the system, but only as long as they stayed as a ‘pariah’ state.
The alliance with Latin American countries would be of great importance to Taiwan and the U.S. would be the main reason for this region to keep their alliance intact. U.S.
influence in Latin America was everywhere, from economics to politics, they would become so entangle that Taiwan, being kilometres away, was highly influenced by this relationship. The reason for Central American countries to recognize Taiwan over the years was indeed the influence of the United States. We have seen how the Cold War and the U.S. fight against communism shaped the policies that the U.S.
implemented in Latin America, and how the ROC also used this battle in their benefit.
Anti-communism and democracy would become political tools for both the U.S. and Taiwan, but the U.S. as a major power would be the one controlling the dynamics of this triangle relationship. The geographic distance between the island of Taiwan and Central American countries would also reinforce the role of the U.S. in the ROC’s alliances with the region. The U.S. would shape this relationship through its foreign policy, its economic influence and both its support for democracy and fight against communism. Foreign policy would be used by the U.S. to increase their influence as a way to protect their national security. In order to protect their interests, foreign aid and private investments would become a basic mean to gain influence in Latin America, while in Taiwan it would give them the means to develop both their economy and a democratic system, and later the international legitimacy they needed to get international support. Meanwhile, anti-communism and the defence of the democratic system would serve as the perfect excuse to implement all those policies.
Thus, foreign policy, economic factors and regime type would be interconnected and would become the main variables influencing the recognition of Taiwan as a state by Central American countries.
All these variables can be seen in practice when looking at the events occurred during the Cold War. The history of interventions by the U.S. in Central American countries would often affect Taiwan as it happened in Panama, where the ROC would be indirectly affected by Panama’s dispute with the U.S. over the Panama Canal.
When the Cold War was coming to an end, the U.S. would not have a reason to be overly involved in Latin American affairs anymore, and this would diminish the
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
73
political factor when deciding between the PRC and the ROC. This would greatly affect Taiwan’s diplomatic relations.
The set of variables used in this thesis has helped to analyse what are the roots of the actual situation of the ROC in the international system, and why Central America has become the main region of allies for Taiwan. Today, the U.S. presence is still important in the region, even if they are not official allies, and Central American countries are still the main block protecting Taiwan’s status. It is hard to know how long their loyalty will last. We have seen how easy is for them to break their diplomatic relationship with Taiwan, and if the PRC were to break the diplomatic truce many would probably choose the economic safety that China can provide, over political loyalty to the ROC. Understanding the foundation of the problem helps figure out the solution for the problem, therefore, this analysis adds to the literature of the Taiwan Strait looking at the past and hopefully will help in the future development of the conflict.