Research-Problem

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infrastructure, airports, stadiums, among other projects. The less the economic development of a country, the more important is this kind of aid when their leaders have to decide who to have diplomatic relations with. Indeed, this was the trump card of Taiwan for many years, so an improvement of this area in China’s side would hurt Taiwan’s diplomatic relations. An example of the use of the economic growth that China does is the precondition that China established to initiate conversations with Peru about a possible FTA, which was their recognition of the status of China as a market economy. The same happened with Colombia when talking about another possible FTA in 2012. So even though the truce has eased the battle, it is definitely not over.

As we can see, the rationale for recognition has been evolving towards a more economic one. This analysis tried to see how this happened. It focused on the study of the Cold War years to try to figure out the depth of Taiwan-Central American relations, how important was the U.S. during the evolution of this relationship, and how the U.S. profound influence in Central American countries affected Taiwan’s alliances. To understand the future development of Taiwan-Central American partnership, it is important to go to the roots of its formation.

Even if the reason for recognition has indeed evolved from a Cold War ideological rationales towards economic self-interest factors, we still have to question whether or not the U.S. has lost today all its power in the region, or if is it still making a difference when it comes to Central American countries recognizing Taiwan.

1.2. Research-Problem

This thesis used a hypothetical-deductive method; therefore hypotheses are first formulated to then be derived empirically. This is to be able to analyse empirically whether or not there is any support for the hypothesis. A deductive approach is more suitable as the theory can be empirically studied through the use of a case study.

As the situation of the recognition of the ROC in Central America has evolved significantly since the Cold War, I used a comparative historical research to evaluate the importance of the U.S. influence in Central America during these years, and how this affected and shaped Taiwan-Central America diplomatic relations. Therefore the

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analysis is directed to answering the following: what are the main factors behind the decision by Central American countries to recognize Taiwan over the years?

1.2.1. Hypothesis

H1. The main factor for Central American countries to recognize Taiwan after the establishment of the PRC was the influence of the United States in the area.

1.2.2. Variables

To answer the research question and prove the hypotheses I used Recognition of Taiwan as a State by Central American countries as the Dependent variable. There are three Independent variables affecting the changes in recognition:

I. Foreign Policy: This variable focus on the influence the US policies had in Central American countries’ decision making, an influence that affected their decision when choosing the ROC as their ally. Also, it evaluates the impact of the US influence on the policy measures taken by both the ROC and the PRC.

Even after the US broke ties with Taiwan in 1979, Central America remained a key area for the ROC. Their proximity to the United States is not random. The U.S. strong relationship with these countries has marked their actions in international relations, affecting the ROC, whose relations with the region are in no way accidental. More recently, this closeness also has supposedly justified Taiwanese “unofficial” meetings with US officials during their official visits to its allied countries, a practice that has been called “transit diplomacy” (Esteban, 2008). Either way, the U.S. foreign policy in Central America has had a strong impact in these countries, and their disputes and reconciliations affected Taiwan-Central American diplomatic relations substantially.

II. Economic Factors: Most of the analysis about the diplomatic war between the PRC and the ROC focus on this variable, but they usually do so from the perspective of these two actors. Indeed, the amount of aid and investment gained importance after the Cold War, and it kept increasing till 2008 with the diplomatic truce. However, during the Cold War there was another type of economic interest involved that affects the dependent variable. Since the early nineteenth century the US had been investing money in Latin American countries, even more so in Central American countries as they were their closest

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allies and an important area for its national security. In fact, according to Keith Griffin, foreign aid had its origins in the Cold War as a “product of the ideological confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union” and the

“motives behind aid were always more political than economic” (Griffin 1991:

645).

III. Regime Type: This variable is important because the Cold War consisted in a confrontation between two different regimes and ideologies, democracy and communism. Democratic Triumphalists assert that democracies with shared norms are more likely to form alliances and are better able to cooperate with one another (Choi, 2003). The U.S. continuously used the idea of democracy when handling their foreign policy. The ideology was a central aspect of their policy, and it affected the ally countries, especially those with a lesser power, and therefore, more easily influenced by the U.S. This idea also affected Taiwan’s alliances as, at some point, they would use the idea of democracy as a vehicle to engage in better relations with both the U.S. and Latin America. This variable is also related to the importance that ideological processes had during the Cold War; processes that made the U.S. engage in actions not always rational, but that affected their relation with some Central American countries indirectly affecting Taiwan.

Figure 1. Conceptual Map.

Recognition of Taiwan as a State by Central American countries

Foreign Policy Economic Factors

Major Power Status Geographic

Distance Regime Type

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DV = Recognition of Taiwan as a State by Central American countries.

IV = Foreign Policy, Economic Factors, Regime Type CV = Major Power Status, Geographic Distance

Control Variables

There are two other important variables that are constantly affecting every independent variable, and therefore, directly and indirectly affect the dependent variable. The United States position as a major power status allowed them to exert enormous influence in Latin America, in political, economic and cultural terms. At the same time, geographic distance refers to the idea of the closeness of these two regions, the United States and Latin America. The U.S. considers Latin America to be an essential part to pay attention to as it greatly affects its national security. It is important to bear in mind that these two variables are constantly present when the governments, both of Latin America and the ROC, decide on their foreign policies.

Geographic distance also works the other way around, when Latin America deals with the government of the ROC, distance makes this relationship more difficult; making the influence of the U.S. even more important for their relationship.

The sections in which this thesis is divided are not casual. As I explained before I divided this study into three different parts –not counting this introductory part. This arrangement also matches the variables used to prove the hypotheses. This is, the first part focuses on the dependent variable, while the second part focuses on the independent variables. I believe this structure help us to understand why I chose these variables and how can they be applied to the different theories that I am using to prove my hypothesis. The third part, the case study, uses the previous two parts of the study to understand how the variables function in a real case.

1.2.3. Data

Most of the data collected for this research comes from books and academic journals as I used many theories that could help explain the dynamics occurred over the Cold War (Structural Realism, Balance of Power and Balance of Threat, Recognition in International Law). The last two parts of this thesis however, also use newspapers from the Cold War period, retrieved from the different regions involved in this

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analysis. This helped to find important events that might be missing in journals or books, and that could specifically explain how the US influenced Taiwan’s alliances, or the changes in Taiwan international status over the years. Looking at the sources retrieved from those years also help to understand better the evolution of the policies taken both in the US and Latin America.

Lastly, for a more comprehensive analysis I used the case of Panama to really grasp the processes that were taking place between the US and Central America during the Cold War. The reason to choose Panama is not only because it was the U.S. most important ally during, and before, the Cold War in the region and probably the most important ally of Taiwan nowadays, but also because Panama is one of the cases that has supposedly tried to changed its recognition to Beijing, despite the strong ties that connects them to the U.S. and therefore to Taiwan. Even if it weren’t the case, it is interesting to see how ideology marked the decisions taken back in the days of the Cold War because of the fight against communism, and how this influenced Taiwan’s international status and Taiwan-Central America relationship. Thus, I believe this particular case is the best to illustrate the changes in the dynamics of the PRC-ROC-U.S. relations and presence in Latin America.