Chapter 1 Introduction
1.3 Literature Review and Methodology
1.3.2 Methodology
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Karkusov, Viacheslav, the lead researcher of RAS Foundation for Electoral Systems and Kudin, Andrei, the Director of RAS Foundation for Electoral Systems, had an article, “The Chinese Presence in the Russian Far East: A Historical and Economic Analysis” in Far Eastern Affairs. They analyzed academically migration flows in Northeast Asia, including number, motivation and cause and effect, and other aspects of Sino-Russian cross-border interaction. (along the border and interregional.)24
Foreign scholars such as Alexseev, Mikhail A., Political Science Ph.D of San Diego State University, wrote an article, “Economic Valuations and Interethnic Fears:
Perceptions of Chinese Migration in the Russian Far East” in Journal of Peace Research. He took “Primorsky” as example, exploring Chinese immigrants in
Russian Far East economic and political dimensions. In the twentieth century, owing to the decreaseof the birth rate and the increase of the mortality rate, local Russians emigrated to the European part of Russia and the Chinese immigrants went to the Russian Far East for the development because of the economic factor.25
1.3.2 Methodology (1) Kremlin politics Approach
To learn more about how to develop a foreign policy in a country, it is necessary to observe the decision-making level. Therefore, in order to more understand the
countermeasures on the so-called Chinese immigration problem in Russia) Shijie Jingji Yu Zhengzhi Luntan (World Economics and Politics Forum) 3 (2005): 78.]
24 Karkusov, Viacheslav and Kudin, Andrei, “The Chinese Presence in the Russian Far East: A Historical and Economic Analysis,” Far Eastern Affairs, (Khabarovsk: Apr., 2002): p62-76.
25 Alexseev, Mikhail A. , “Economic Valuations and Interethnic Fears: Perceptions of Chinese
Migration in the Russian Far East,” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Jan., 2003), pp. 85-102.
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driving factors of the Russian Far East Chinese immigrants, this thesis will be analyzed in Kremlin politics. What Kremlin politics is that the former and the present Soviet Union leaders struggled for power and consolidated their position in the Kremlin power in the process of policy formulation. The power behind all the candidates has become a powerful force, using a variety of debates and skills as a tool to achieve the self-exclusionary goals. Through the observation of the interaction of the Kremlin is one means to view a particular political formation of Russia.26
Putin, Russian president, must keep an eye on the movement for the political factions in the movement to consolidate his regime. Thus, taking advantage of the trends in the Kremlin political forces interaction will help to understand driving factors of Chinese immigrants in the Russian Far East.
(2) Geopolitical and International strategy Approach
The origin of Geo-strategy was from the “political geography” before World War I.
The U.S. geo-strategists, Nicolas J. Spykam said, “The geography-based national security plan.” Therefore, the geo-politics and international strategy is closely related which is a study of the geographical conditions and the science of the relation between national strategies. After collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost 1500 kilometers from the center of Europe. Consequently, what the loss of geopolitical boundaries and their strategic space in Russia was much narrower than before.
Moreover, domestic political turbulence, severely frustrated economic reforms and deteriorated geopolitical situation happened. Russian Far East is closed to the Chinese border and Chinese immigration policy in its Far East will be subject to the
26 王定士，「俄羅斯千禧年總統選舉研究」。中山人文科學期刊2 (2000): 39。[Wang Dingshi, Eluosi qianxinian zongtong xuanju yanjiu （A study on the Russian presidential elections in the new
millennium） Zhongshan Renwen Kexiao Qikan (Zhongshan Humanities Journal) 2 (2000): 39.]
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geopolitical and international strategies.
(3) Documents Analysis Method
In social science, research methods as a tool, provide researchers with some reasonable scientific methods to explore the phenomenon in theoretical explanation.27
Literature analysis, that is from the collection of pre-existing information in a systematic and objective definition, evaluation and to determine the exact nature of past events and conclusions in proven methods. In addition, collect relevant researches to analyze their findings as suggestions, and take to validate the assumptions.
The research methodology of this paper will be analyzed with Chinese, English and Russian references.
Literature analysis is carried out by analyzing the data, such research methods will help researchers understand the past, insight into the present and speculate about the future in order to facilitate the research conducted. Documents belong to the general knowledge of historical value.28
I will attempt to collect raw data in Chinese and English, supplemented by Chinese, English and Russian, indirect information, including relevant research papers, theses, newspapers and magazines, or out of various spoken information, etc. In order to provide a research the analysis of the evidence, the collected data will be inducted and collated in a systematic way, so that this thesis will be in an objective, detailed and complete way.
27 王玉民，社會科學研究方法原理。台北：紅葉出版社，1994。[Wang Yumin, Shehui kexiao yanjiu fangfa yuanli (The principles of social science research methods)。Taipei：Hongye Publisher，1994.]
28 楊國樞，社會及行為科學研究方法。台北：東華 書局，1990, p.51。[Yang Guoshu, Shehui ji hangwei kexiao yanjiu fangfa (Social and behavioral science research methods)。Taipei：Donghua Bookstore, 1990. p.51.]
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Chapter 2
Russia’s policy toward Chinese immigrants in its Far East
The purpose of this chapter is mainly to investigate in the post-Soviet Russia, the Russia’s policy toward Chinese immigrants in its Far East, and then to understand the distribution, the issues and the migration policies of Chinese immigrants in the Russian Far East.
This chapter is divided into three sections. Section one is the demographic problem and the labor distribution in Russian Far East. Section two is the policies of Chinese immigration in Russian Far East. Section three is summary. Summarize how to formulate the policy toward Chinese immigrants in Russian Far East after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
2.1 The demographic problem and labor distribution in Russian Far East
Russia’s Far East, which borders on China’s three northeastern provinces, which is home to nearly 0.1 billion people, 15 times the Far East’s population. With this huge gap, China was anxious to find a way out for its large numbers of surplus labor, and Russia’s Far East became an ideal place.29
The Far East is extensive and has abundant resources, yet it is sparsely populated and is great need of manpower. Since Russia’s economic reform, the Far East’s
29 劉慧麗，「俄羅斯遠東地區的人口問題與中俄勞務合作」，俄羅斯中亞東歐市場2 (2007): 41。
[Liu Huili, Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou wenti yu ZhongE laowu hezuo (The population of the Russian Far East labor service cooperation with China and Russia) Eluosi Zhongya Dongou Shichang (Russia's Central Asia and Eastern) Europe 2 (2007): 41.]
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population had reduced by 14,500 persons in 15 years, or 2% of the population, from 8.066 million in early 1991 to 6.59 million in 2005. This decrease was far bigger than other areas in Russia. Presently, this area’s population continues to decrease. In the first half of 2004, in coastal border areas alone, the de jure population reduced by nearly 8,000. Over the ten years, two main factors leading to this crisis in the Far East’s population are: death rate higher than birth rate, and population outflow in large quantities.
In 1990, the Far Eastern Federal District had a registered population of 8.04 million. From then on, the situation became increasingly worse. As of 2005, the population was 6.59 million, decreased by 14,500 persons, or 2%. Although population loss is a common problem in Russia, as the overall Russian population tended to decrease, the Far East’s percentage is falling drastically, at nearly 1% in 15 years.30
2.1.1 Population decreases because of the mortality rate higher than the birth rate
From 1993 on, the Far East’s death rate has been surpassing the birth rate. In particular, in 1998~2004, its population had naturally decreased 145,700. In 1993~1999, the population fell by 110,900.31 A negative growth in population as a result of high death rate, low birth rate, and population outflow has led to a consequence which is inestimable economically and socially.32
30 Agarkov,Valery and Shatilova, Marina, “Migration is a bad headache in the Russian Far East,”
Itar-Tass Weekly New, (Moscow: Aug., 2002): p1.
31 杜立克，「淺析俄羅斯遠東地區的人口危機問題」，內蒙古大學學報4 (2003): 97。[Du Like, Qianxi Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou weiji wenti (An Analysis of the Russian Far East's population crisis) Neimenggu Daxiao Xiaobao (Journal of Inner Mongolia University) 4 (2003): 97.
32 牛燕平，「俄羅斯遠東地區人口與勞動力資源問題」。西伯利亞研究6 (2004): 14。[Niu Yanping, Eluosi yuandongdiqu renkou yu laodongli ziyuan wenti (Russian Far East population and labor
resources) Xibaliya Yanjiu (Siberian Research) 6 (2004): 14.]
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Statistics show that in the first 7 months of 2003, the Far East’s birth rate was 10.83‰ and death rate 13.19‰, and the population naturally decreased by approximately 12800. Compared with 1990, the birth rate decreased by over 30%, while the death rate rose by 60%.33
In terms of birth rate, in 1991~1999, the Far East’s birth rate had fallen from 13.7‰ to 9‰, or 33.6%. On the other hand, Russia’s overall birth rate decreased from 12.1‰ to 8.3‰, or 30.4%. Currently the Far East’s birth rate has reached a degree where a simple re-production process can no longer be guaranteed. On average, a childbearing age woman only gives birth to one child; but only giving birth to 2.3 children can guarantee the minimum regeneration. The low birth rate is due to bad survival conditions. A great many families can afford to bear the heavy burden of raising children. Meanwhile, the younger generation has their lifestyle and a change in attitude. Families which would only have one child or none are increasing.34
In 1991~1999, in terms of death rates in the same period, the Far East rose 40.7%, while the entire Russia increased 28.9%. In other words, the entire Russia’s population decreased naturally at 25.5% in 10 years, the Far East’s population reduced naturally 1.4 times that figure. Currently in some parts in the Far East, their death rate still surpasses their birth rate by 50%. For instance, in the coastal and border A survey (2002) shows that 58% of the interviewees in the Far East believed that, under the current economic conditions, having a child is better. This percentage is higher than the overall Russia (44%) and Siberia (55%).
33 Мотрич, Е., “Демографический потенциал и присутствие китайцев на российском Дальнем Востоке,” Проблемы Дальнего Востока, No. 6, 2001, p. 57-60.[Motrich, E., demographic potential and the presence of Chinese in the Russian Far East (在俄羅斯遠東地區的人口潛力和存在的華人), Problems of the Far East, No. 6, 2001, p. 57-60.
34「俄羅斯將向西伯利亞及遠東移民數十萬人」[Eluosi jiangxiang Xibaliya ji yuandong yimin shushiwanren (Russia will immigrate hundreds of thousands of people to Siberia and the Far East)]，新 華網[Xinhuawang (Xinhua Network)]，20060630,
http://www.chinaxinjiang.cn/news/gjxw/t20060630_128425.htm
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areas, in the first half of 2004, the number of dead exceeded the number of newborn by half, with a natural decrease of about 5,799 in population. In Amur, in January to July, the death rate grew 8% from the same period in 2003, with a natural decrease of about 2,600 in population.35 In respect of causes for high death rate, in addition to a decreased level of living and low quality of life, the natural and climate conditions are more severe and the risks for prevalence and death are high, but medical benefits are far fewer than before.36
In terms of the average life, in 1999, the life expectancy of the entire Russia’s population was 65.9 years old, males 59.9 and females 72.4. By contrast, the life expectancy of Far Easterners was 64.4 years old, males 58.9 and females 70.6, the gap being nearly 12 years. By 2003, the life expectancy of the entire Russia’s population was 65.4 years old, males 58.5 and females 71.99. On the other hand, that of the Far East’s population was 62.95 years old, males 56.4 and females 69.5.37 These figures suggest that over the 5 years, the life expectancy of the Russians including Far Easterners had been falling, by nearly 2 years. The life expectancy of the Far East’s population was the lowest among Russia’s 7 federal districts and was 2 years lower than the average figure of the entire Russia. In the foreseeable future, the life expectancy of the Far East’s population will still not reach the average figure of the entire Russia. Among males of labor age 16, only 58% will be able to live to 60.38
35 杜立克，「淺析俄羅斯遠東地區的人口危機問題」，內蒙古大學學報4 (2003): 97。[Du Like, Qianxi Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou weiji wenti (An Analysis of the Russian Far East's population crisis) Neimenggu Daxiao Xiaobao (Journal of Inner Mongolia University) 4 (2003): 97.
36 Галенович, М. Ю.,“Россия и Китай в ХХвеке：Граница,” Москва : АСТ, 2001.[Galenovich, M.
Yu, Russia and China in HHveke: Limit (在二十一世紀的俄羅斯和中國：邊界), Moscow:AST, 2001.]
37 劉慧麗，「俄羅斯遠東地區的人口問題與中俄勞務合作」，俄羅斯中亞東歐市場2 (2007): 41。
[Liu Huili, Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou wenti yu ZhongE laowu hezuo (The population of the Russian Far East labor service cooperation with China and Russia) Eluosi Zhongya Dongou Shichang (Russia's Central Asia and Eastern) Europe 2 (2007): 41.]
38 牛燕平，「俄羅斯遠東地區人口與勞動力資源問題」。西伯利亞研究6 (2004): 14。[Niu Yanping, Eluosi yuandongdiqu renkou yu laodongli ziyuan wenti (Russian Far East population and labor
resources) Xibaliya Yanjiu (Siberian Research) 6 (2004): 14.]
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(See Table 2-1)
Tab le 2-1：The birth and death population in Far East(Unit: 100 million people)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Birth Rate Mortality rate
Source from: 俄羅斯聯邦國家統計局[Russian Federal State Statistics]
http://poccuu.org/0-tongjiju.htm
2.1.2 Massive outflow of population
Compared with natural population decrease, population outflow in large numbers is the main cause which has resulted in a rapid decrease in the Far East’s population.
After the USSR dissolved, more population flowed out from the Far East, mainly including high quality specialists, technicians and young laborers.39
Immigration used to add substantially to the Far East’s population. Nevertheless, from 1990 to today, due to various reasons, Far Easterners have migrated to the west of the country, while immigrants have decreased drastically. The population outflow has reached more than 1 million, making up over 80% of the district’s total population
39 Motrich, Ekaterina, “Demographic Potential and Chinese Presence in the Russian Far East,” Far Eastern Affairs,( St. Petersburg: Jan., 2002): p77-78.
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decrease.
In the Far East, in particular the north, the economic and social conditions are far worse than other districts and survival is not an easy thing. As a result, population outflow is more serious. The original preferential policy which aimed to attract migrants is no longer there.40 Currently the Far East’s population outflow continues, and so do some of the federal subjects. Leaving the Far East, the migrants move toward the south of the Far East, such as residents in Yakut, Sakhalin, Magadanskaya, Kamchatka, Chukotka continues to move toward Khabarovsk, Primorsky Krai, Amur, Jewish Autonomous Oblast. The number has decreased from 160,000 in 1991 to over 50,000 now.41
Between 1940 and 1985, every 5 years on average, the immigrants accounted for 37.9% of the Far East’s population growth. From 1986 on, this factor began to lose its effect. From 1986 to 1990, the immigrants only made up 17.2% of the population growth. Those of the immigrants who stayed in the Far East only accounted for 5.7%, down 61.54% from 1971~1975. From then on, the migration trend continued to become worse, and the immigrants’ factor for population growth was no long present.
In 1999, the population outflow in the Far East was 7 times than in 1986. In 2003 alone, the emigration population reached up to 24,300. Cities lost many professional technicians, and some villages and Boreal areas were absent of human traces. From the 1990s to today, Chukotka has lost two-thirds of its population,
40 Мотрич, Е., “Демографический потенциал и присутствие китайцев на российском Дальнем Востоке,” Проблемы Дальнего Востока, No. 6, 2001, p. 60.[Motrich, E., demographic potential and the presence of Chinese in the Russian Far East (在俄羅斯遠東地區的人口潛力和存在的華人), Problems of the Far East, No. 6, 2001, p. 60.]
41 杜立克，「淺析俄羅斯遠東地區的人口危機問題」，內蒙古大學學報4 (2003): 97。[Du Like, Qianxi Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou weiji wenti (An Analysis of the Russian Far East's population crisis) Neimenggu Daxiao Xiaobao (Journal of Inner Mongolia University) 4 (2003): 97.
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Magadanskaya 50%, Koryak 37%, Kamchatka 25%, Sakhalin 20%.42 In the past 10 years, the Far East has lost a total of 0.9 million residents; of them, the immigrant outflow was 828,900 persons, making up 92.4% of the total loss of the Far Eastern population. The Far East’s population outflow rate stood at 13.6‰ in 1995 and below 8.7‰ in 1999.43 In the first quarter of 2004, compared with the same period of 2003, Primorsky Krai’s population outflow had grown 12.9%, and in the first half of the year the number of emigrants exceeded the number of immigrants by 2,000.
Amur had increased 6% in the number of emigrants compared with the same period of 2003.
2.1.3 The potential of labor force declines: population decreases and population density constitutes deterioration
In respect of the imbalance in population distribution, a decrease in population had led to a drop in the percentage of the Far East in the overall Russian population, from 5.4% in 1991 to 4.5% in 2004. And its population density had fallen from 1.3 persons to below 1 person per kilometer square, far below the average Russian population density of 8.4 persons/kilometer sq. The situation in the north is even worse: Sakha (Yakutia) 0.3 person/km. sq., Magadanskaya 0.4 person/km. sq., Chukotka 0.07 person/km. sq. The fact that the population is becoming sparser and more imbalanced in distribution will confine exploitation of natural resources and development of the economy in the Far East. Meanwhile, the fall in the Far East’s population has also contributed to an unfavorable change in the geographical
42 劉慧麗，「俄羅斯遠東地區的人口問題與中俄勞務合作」，俄羅斯中亞東歐市場2 (2007): 41。
[Liu Huili, Eluosi yuandong diqu de renkou wenti yu ZhongE laowu hezuo (The population of the Russian Far East labor service cooperation with China and Russia) Eluosi Zhongya Dongou Shichang (Russia's Central Asia and Eastern) Europe 2 (2007): 41.]
43 Lukin, Alexander, “The Image of China in Russian Border Regions” Asian Survey, Vol. 38, No. 9 (Sep., 1998), pp. 825.
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distribution of Russia’s entire population.44
The 6.59 million people in Russian Far East are scattered over an expansive land of 6.216 million km. sq., or 1.06 persons per km. sq. And the population mainly concentrates in cities by the southern Amur River and along the railway, while other areas are sparsely populated. Statistics from the National Office of Statistics show that the urban population of the Far East was 4.89 million in 2005 and that the rural population was merely 1.70 million.
(See Table 2-2)
45
Tab le 2-2：The estimation of settled population and labor resources in Russian Far East (1000 persons/per year)
1994 1995 1996 1997 2000 2005
Source from: 俄羅斯聯邦國家統計局(Russian Federal State Statistics) http://poccuu.org/0-tongjiju.htm
A decrease in the population of newborns, high death rate in the labor-age population, and high population outflow, will inevitably leads to an aging population.
Statistics for 2002 suggest that the Far East’s population below labor age accounted
44 牛燕平，「俄羅斯遠東地區人口與勞動力資源問題」。西伯利亞研究6 (2004): 14。[Niu Yanping, Eluosi yuandongdiqu renkou yu laodongli ziyuan wenti (Russian Far East population and labor
44 牛燕平，「俄羅斯遠東地區人口與勞動力資源問題」。西伯利亞研究6 (2004): 14。[Niu Yanping, Eluosi yuandongdiqu renkou yu laodongli ziyuan wenti (Russian Far East population and labor