Conclusions

The recent wave in the telecommunications and information advancement does not make the telecom and IT industry radically different from previous industrial experiences. Although this telecom slowdown has caused a severe setback in global telecom development, history has shown that full use of any new technology will arrive eventually. However, the new technology must be made user friendly, and new business models must be developed to make it happen. This evolutionary process may take several decades. On the upside, it would be well to remember that, from batch mainframe computing to desktop computing, and wireless technologies to Web-based services, new digital information technologies are continuously being developed (Arthur, 2002). The wire-line and wireless Internet evolution will be an ongoing process that will have a far-reaching impact in the future. Broadband 3G wireless

manufacturers and service operators are re-structuring and re-positioning themselves in order to prepare for the next wave of opportunities to arrive.

Even though the telecom industry is going through the restructuring process, telecom carriers are faced with fast growing Internet data traffic that exceeds traditional voice traffic.

Gigabit Ethernet technology holds the promise to relieve the critical bandwidth bottleneck in the access network. As Ethernet technology has evolved into multi-gigabit bandwidth with applications extending from LAN, MAN, and even to WAN, Gigabit Ethernet offers several technical advantages against the incumbent SONET/SDH technology. However, selecting the best technology for MAN network not only needs to address the technology issue, but also needs to evaluate network operations, services, and compatibility issues. In other words, it is important to analyze a problem from a “system and multi-criteria” perspective to derive an optimal solution. Using the fuzzy MCDM method to study the issue can help telecom carriers to address both quantitative and qualitative issues in a complex business environment. The ranking of the criteria also provide insight on enterprise business and service priority to avoid any prejudgments or oversight while establishing an MAN access strategy.

Given that this is a first attempt to address the qualitative issues while selecting an access technology by using fuzzy MCDM, it is believed that significant insights have been observed and a foundation for future research has been established. In order to achieve a more complete and pragmatic MAN access strategy, the evaluation hierarchy system will need to be examined at a lower level to further reflect network and business issues. A number of extensions could be further explored, including survey design, the use of group decision-makers, correlation among various criteria, evaluating the weights for the hierarchy relevance system using ANP (Analytic Network Process), and different de-fuzzy ranking methods.

Because of the lack of bottleneck access in the “last mile” of the telecom network, there is little competition in the global local loop of telecom network. This lack of competition in the local loop could severely hinder the development of broadband service access and content availability for the local loop subscribers. As a result, how to stimulate the local loop competition has become a critical issue for the telecom regulators. At the same time, there are several emerging access technologies that are being developed to address these market needs.

Fiber, cable and wireless solutions are three main access technologies that offer alternatives for existing copper network. Each access technology has its pros and cons while trying to meet customer’s service demands. Among these technologies, WLAN deserves particular attention because of Taiwan’s leading WLAN manufacturing capability and industry output.

If WLAN could be extended to serve the long range and outdoor environment while meeting the carrier’s performance and operations requirements, there will be tremendous market opportunities for Taiwan’s wireless industry to penetrate into the telecom local loop access market. At the same time, WiMAX is emerging as the MAN access wireless solution. Unlike previous MMDS and LMDS broadband access technologies, which were designed for fixed units, WiMAX is expected to be used in laptop computers for broadband data access. The mobility aspect of the WiMAX application together with the existing base of the laptop users could stimulate the growth of broadband data applications for wireless WANs. At the same time, the fiber access system continues to hold promise for the last mile broadband services.

Managing access technologies from the carriers, manufacturers and government perspectives could have different focuses. For example, manufacturers will continue to look for technology innovation in access technology areas while carriers will look for technology that can help them to provide services that will meet subscriber’s needs in a cost effective manners.

Government regulators will primarily endorse technologies that can create a fair competition

environment to meet subscriber’s needs. Therefore, it is important to understand the objectives and perspectives of the issue at hand while managing various access technologies.

Future growth and investment in telecommunications will depend on how well policy-makers can bring sustainable competition into the local loop. As the telecom industry continues evolving, it will be a challenge for regulators to set proper regulatory policies and guidelines to promote local loop competition.