Second Demographic Transition or Rigid Family Values?

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6.1.3 Second Demographic Transition or Rigid Family Values?

Based on evidence from both survey and interview data, it is clear that neither Second Demographic Transition theory nor rigid family value theories completely describe Taiwan’s current situation. Analysis of survey data from 1985 and 2015 clearly shows that all values, including family values, are shifting over time toward the

nonconformist side. The family module survey from 2011 also clearly showed that older respondents were more conformist and younger respondents were less conformist. In addition, nearly all women in the interview sample demonstrated valuing the higher order need of self-development over the materialist need of earning money and most women in the sample valued meaningful work over work with a high salary. The majority of women showed respect for individual choice over obedience to family when making decisions and valued raising children to be independent over being disciplined and respectful, despite more women believing family needs were more important than

individual needs. These responses show individualization even within the family context.

Interview data similarly showed support for more equal gender roles in the home and tolerance for nontraditional decisions like not getting married, choosing not to have children, and cohabitating with a significant other. Overall, value shifts shown by the survey data and the values reflected in interview data both indicate a rise over time in prioritizing higher order needs and individualization, which lends support to evidence of the SDT occurring.

However, proving the SDT is occurring requires more than just value shifts.

Values must be connected to demographic behavior. According to Surkyn and

Lesthaeghe (2004), a connection between “value orientations and the life course choices concerning living arrangements and family formation” are a “crucial element,” which is why this research adapted their framework for testing the SDT in Taiwan (p. 45).

Ultimately, evidence from survey data failed to support a connection between value orientation and household type. Instead, gender, age, and income were significant in most of the regression models.

However, interview data does show support for a connection between value orientation and life course choices, especially concerning relationships. Among younger

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unmarried women, those with nonconformist values prioritized their careers and had fewer relationships. Relationships they did have were of shorter duration. Women with conformist family values and conformist overall values initially prioritized work and then changed to prioritizing relationships. They also had the highest number of relationships overall, indicating more effort to seek out a partner. Those with conflicting values had fewer relationships, but they were the longest in length. Ultimately, women with conflicting values showed less interest in marriage and no interest at all in having

children. Women over the age of 40 in the interview sample were all married regardless of value orientation and most also had children.

As mentioned in the previous section, excepting the two women with conflicting values, value orientation did not appear to be related to the desire to marry or have children but it did appear to influence a woman’s choice to prioritize work or relationships. This finding suggests that most women want to get married but their values may influence them to postpone marriage, therefore increasing the likelihood of encountering unintended consequences that make it difficult to get married later in life.

Only women with conflicting values showed little interest or a deliberate rejection of marriage and children. It is unclear from the interview sample to what degree lower marriage and fertility rates are due to deliberate choice and to what degree they are due to the unintended consequences of focusing on a career for Taiwan overall. In the interview sample, unmarried women with conformist overall values or conformist family values have postponed marriage and childbearing due to seeking higher education or career development, but they appear more likely to marry in the future than women with nonconformist values who spend less time seeking relationships.

From the connections shown in interview data between a woman’s values and her behavior, the women with conflicting values were following life course choices predicted by theories of rigid family values. Both women had conformist family values but highly valued individual freedom. One woman directly said she felt she had to choose between love or freedom and she decided to reject the responsibility associated with marriage and family. The other woman said she would possibly marry if she found the right person, but she absolutely did not want children because of the burdens involved. Other

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unmarried women were postponing marriage and children for the sake of pursuing self-development or fulfillment through their careers, as predicted by SDT theory.

Though some women in the interview sample followed SDT predictions of delaying marriage or childbirth for career satisfaction, SDT theory does not provide an explanation for the women with conflicting values. However, theories of rigid family values do not explain why only two women in the sample rejected having a traditional family while the other women were either married or still want to get married and have children eventually. Since the two women with conflicting values were close in age and were also around the age when fertility in women decreases, one explanation could be that value conflict increases for women in that age range because they need to make a decision imminently. Those two women may initially have thought they would marry and have children, but as they got closer to an age when they had to decide, they became increasingly resistant to the idea of giving up their freedom. Both women reported following traditional expectations when they were younger but later began to make their own decisions. From the small interview sample, it is impossible to know if the

connection between the two women’s ages and value orientation was a coincidence or if it is indicative of a larger trend.

Additionally, neither theory alone explains the failure to find significance between values and household type. For SDT theory, overall value orientation should have been significant and for theories of rigid family values, nonfamily values should have been significant. Either the value questions included in the Taiwan Social Change Survey were too limited to provide an accurate indicator of value orientation or the Taiwanese population is divided, with some of the population displaying characteristics of the SDT and some of the population displaying a conflict between rigid family values and higher order needs.

The factors involved in determining household type in Taiwan may also be more complicated and include additional factors beyond values. Some factors that may be complicating the connection between values and demographic behavior are some of the circumstantial reasons women in the interviews mentioned when asked why the

prevalence of remaining unmarried and childfree is increasing. Women of all value

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orientations focused on their educations and careers, but some women mentioned that high education levels or successful careers made it more difficult to find a partner. Long work hours also made it more difficult to find the socializing time necessary to meet new people. Additionally, about half of women thought economic concerns influenced the decision to marry or have children. Survey data supports this conclusion because income was also a significant factor in regression models. Respondents with lower incomes were more likely to be divorced or single rather than married, compared to those with incomes in the reference category of 30,000-59,999 NTD per month.

Overall, research findings suggest that Taiwan is not exclusively following either the Second Demographic Transition model or models of rigid family values. Overall values shifted between 1985 and 2015 in general survey samples, with family values showing the greatest change, but the 2011 family module survey showed lingering traditional values. SDT theory predicts an increase in nontraditional households, such as

“premarital single living, cohabitation, and parenthood within cohabitation,” but in both the survey data and interview data, alternative household types were rare¹⁵ (Lesthaeghe, 2014, p. 18114). Nearly all women in the interview sample reported feeling pressure to follow the traditional expectation to marry and have children, even if some of them chose to ignore it. The continued prevalence of a traditional family structure is predicted by theories of rigid family values. Due to strong cultural norms, SDT theory allows for a lag before certain demographic features like cohabitation or childbearing outside of marriage appear in a society. According to Lethaeghe (2014):

The main correction [to the theory] by now is that the changes in partnership formation and the postponement of parenthood are not necessarily as closely connected [in other parts of the world] as in the West. The Asian pattern is characterized by early postponement of fertility but a slow transition from marriage to cohabitation (p. 18115).

15 This may be partly due to underreporting because of the stigma around cohabitation or childbirth outside of marriage. The only cohabitating woman in the interview sample also said she does not usually tell others.

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One explanation is that a period of conflicting values caused by family values changing slower than other values is an additional phase in the demographic transition of societies with strong familial systems. One of the interviewed women in her fifties said she felt she was part of a transitional generation. During her life she felt a conflict between strong societal pressure to follow traditional expectations and the desire for individualism. The two women who showed the strongest conflict in values were in their thirties and forties, however. Another explanation is that certain women in Taiwanese society are following the predictions of SDT theory while others are following

predictions of theories of rigid family values, even in younger generations. Based on women’s values and life course choices, some women in the interview sample fit the SDT model while others fit models of rigid family values. The sample size was too small to identify what differentiated women who conformed to the SDT model from women who conformed to the rigid family value models, though patterns in the sample suggest it may be related to an age threshold after which the chances of marriage and children decrease. Additionally, it is unclear how other factors like income interact with values to determine demographic behavior or other life course decisions in Taiwan.