台灣地區失業類型與結構性失業的探討

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(1)*~~~~t.~.M.~~t~~ff. 1993ij=-6 ~. ~~~~~ t ~~~M.~~.~.ff. The Types of Unemployment and Structural Unemployment in Taiwan. *. ~ f::-1.i. Jen-Te Hwang. -t. #j ~<':)( Elfl'~1:r:t12-t~~-t. 1978 =?E 1990 q'zlUl .. . ~~ B;!jIH]fl'];f.§ii.®. ~ ~m I. ~$ i'l'~*i$&Jt W 1l:: iiII~. ~a':J ~\f.'! ~:¥,;fE. 0. .. '. i:i'i·.ttjt!>.~B"J~ ~ $.l:)Jj~- m. ;;P[i"il M 1\I.*= ~!f- ;f['J1J rn ~lj:fl':J&:W. r:Mlnt*=*i'l'~i'-¥:(£. .. ~:t~H5!l!JlQjf,; • i.5' i'JJj-t!>. g;;a':J*= . {if-.l.-:J..fl§lN·I1:*=~ ~.± • )$~'Ij:. iittj:t!>.lilhfJ"JElf.~*= ~$ ~~ tf.Jrs if·if.::(iiff*m"lia''lclt~ c. .. '. :(£~ - Hl:AAIUJ. 0.9% . (.bl'fHm R{jHllffiJt:£i8)Cl"J1tJilol. :f,nIJt:n raf~~tE ?t~$fJ''l~1f,m:. :t£~ - 1J lID. 0. i:J ilfttt\l. lEi~tlli %'l'r:i5t.'4Cl''Jclt~. •. 0. • i:J. ~1H-' ~. 1J"9:tE*=.$ l=iP~w.. • :(£k -- t.QBi'r<ll • §,tif.. ~~ffiJ~ •. ft 15 - 24. fJ':J~fJI!. f§.Jj";M:i!8!~if. m;!f.I'l.z.~i1:YittrtE:~illh1JB':J~"t ~~W. •. EI~ *=. & ~!fhr;a**,5 tPJ !mIJJ fi-*:. 1980i:f.f'C*tlll • *!i''JJd 1970 "'i'-f'C¥Mfl'Jiifii{g. It,=tt·J~.Hli. ;. ~~~*Jl.B"J~I"f.~~ftt£ ~ !Iih1Ja/'l ~ ~ • ~~ffl7JrJ:;;r-;fIJ. • ftlJfE'f'ftIJB"J ;. ~n~~~ffiJ ~·~ ~m~ft . u~z~.1J~~~·ffiJ;;p~m~ft .~. ~ ( ~ o:plHLt) z.·~[!h1Ja"JW.t :$. 0. 1978. ~. 1990if.z.FoiJ. 'i3 i'/1t!t!>.~tt'l~. tf:\ r;;J *UiMie~ ~"' fx;;P 15J i!lf ~M fl''l W.t ~ *,j!H,Uj> ~ t~*(J"Jc~ ~ • ffI. ':tm5:1-tlT. .Ilfljf,; • i3 l11ttt!>.[;11t* 'hfJ 1M3Ui5me''lcltW • ~jW. .;jf;:i5t1erfi*-~·a"J*= ~* ~~urf~:~. 0. ABSTRACT The data from 197R to 1990 are used to investigate the topics about types of unemployment. the change of relative importance for. *A~~~~~k.~~.~±·~~a~k.~~~~ft~o. -- 115-.

(2) ~. ~. 1ft,? &'= ~Il. ~N~~~t. ~ ~M~~~t~.ff. 1993-1- 6 f). different types of unemployment. the level and trend of natural rate of. )jtJl[ $:~ , *,,!!. * ;;P JEp~a';J~. ~. unemployment. the existence of structural unemployment. and the. ~. ~ AItW*lBb tJ a"J 1t:* mZ~ El?~. effect of structural change of labor demand on unemployment in. 0. ~~tt~~. (frictional unem. ployment) ~W t~!1;ix::tJC.~.IJt-Zf\,.~PIT. Taiwan. The empirical results show that cyclical unemployment is the. ¥){ e';J ~*. main unemployment type. the frictional unemployment rate in the end. 0. EI3}j~I f"F~.m.re.~1-. average natural unemployment rate is about 0.9%. and it tends to raise. . 1EI l1't,4Ji&A 1M:t£ ~ t~~ :tJ(: ~ I {'F a';J @! f~~~ tlf. as time passed. In the same period. the change of economic structure. P~ t£B';J ~*. is helpful to lower the male's unemployment rate. but it does not have. ft~ ~lI M1<O ~~.lJt B';J ffl t1. significant effect on the female's unemployment rate. In addition, it. ~~M1~ ~ *. (turnover une mploy. has especially unfavorable effect on the employment of the group 15-24. ment) , h 1* E!. El3m t~~~ J!IH'F pfT. years both sexes. and it has favorable effect on the employment of. ~ $ ~ ~ B';J *5 -*. other age groups. The study also finds that educated unemployment is. =~ ~ ~~ ~r!icffiJ. significant in Taiwan. that is. the one has a more of education is easier. 1:i:~~. of 1980 is twice as high as in the end of 1970. From 1976. to. ~ I?mJ;l)'Ij: B';J =1' 7t~. 1990, the. to suffer the unemployment than the one has a less of education.. 0. ~-.ffJW£~~IEI~. '. ' X fEim~. ~3jtlfil~Wl f'F a';J ~ ~. (structural unemployment) ~. a'J - ltt~ ~. 0. ~~~t.miWJ51' *5{.:I3::. *= ~ W ~~ t£ ~ ~ jf;:;;P ~$h ~-'-. Il~. 6. ~ l~ ~ L W-'f~ ~ ~5J-~fJeijlt'lj:. ~~ , *at.1j:~~& • • 1j:~~~ .=.7dt.R~ , {M!li!'Ij:~~~#d7t-e';J~ti ~~e';J*~fo. '. MHfij.~E!~~~. 0. fi~~e';J.~g~~$~mll.m~*~i~ .~W1t:ffiJ:t£E!~~~*Lr~8lIb. 0. iJ fJltm~e';J~~$~j[:.1:)J3~-tl.~J! ?Jll~3:. ? QlfB~flM';Jm~. ,. ;;P[5.J~Jt. ~ ~ ~ e';J fEltM1ti:~ 'Ij: *! :a ~5E ~1 t:. e';J~~)ti*-4 ' *r;~gt~JEtr",'~. 0. ~. ~L ' ~~e';Jm~~m:D~{JeIit'Ij:~ ~. , fgJ!iif-*gf~-jfC~~~~tbm. - 116. ,. ,. ~1l§". § ~~. 0. rate of unemployment). ~3l..fflj.Z1?;lC:S1-m:~O'J*=~*. .. f!fJ1:E'.ffi:-~***$ ~. • :1C5J-it B~1 § ~~ fBi It€. ~ e ~tJH~ fiX *N PI Friedman (1968) A'.J JE:4'l ' § ~ ~ "'''' 0. *h~{£. *'J] Wilt.. ~ *t~~E:~*JJ1. tm:~al:Jmt~t.5t1i~ ' Ij: ~. ( 'E!J"5mt 1':jG~ , f~~e';J~~w~ , :rwmI ('F~inR:W i:iJ ~ *JJJa\J-gft.~,5X* ' ;ft 5X*~). '!\HI§I~?J1f~1i~¥J.3Lwr. - M: ±S] ~ (Walrasian general equili brium) fl~a':]~~* {£~~iJ!I'7f.f1T L. 0. .. ~~ t~E! ?¢~. ~$J:E~~itTJIAA:®~~ H~*~ m ~~~1!1~Ii&$. (. ~ :imitIW3 HR$~. t117~ ~ttf1JO W-# !IfJ ~~~:rre';:]IJHf~. e~~ 7j1J I ~ :t£ :fj~ *511«:Ij:~ ~$5t.mf. :Jj~~J:E. f§~=S-~. 1j:*= ~ B';J ~ ~MII.& ~*. tY6m1f~~*$~~tt{£ §I ~~~. ~~m~m1j:~~:t£~. ,. JEt ~ ~ e';J ~ ~ t:p ffi ~J! - fi !E~e';Jjl:J @. ~¥U § ~~l1: ' i=;' .tmliiie';J ~. 0. ~$-&Httt:;¥mf§1ltm;;e';J*~. ,m. f'F. 0. '. ~ **tt. ~ ~~ ~~~~~E IiJ{t ~. (seasonal unem ploy. r",'UeiE B tlM1ti: ' *)C-ili.~- i*~t ~~l1'l:: - r",~fm. 831i~. 0. EI3:fj~ .~ ~~ a';J*aD t1. 0. *- g[) Xi' a';J ~ iJrt 51' ffi''''~.*Ba1lfflJ. ~1~ a';J ~;f9-. ,. ~l1't 11t~ ~~VJf~iMff. ff.R ,m t:p1i~ .m 'l~ mti ~ = ~ ZI. ~. ,. {JeIft'Ij:~~. ,. &*B.rHj:~~~~~. *at.'Ij:~ 0. {Jel!t'Ij:. ~~ (cyclical unemployment) ~~~. ,. 1itn~~:1c~ *w·. ,. {JO IR 'Ij:~. . fJ§lR ' I~~~OJ~ii!: ~~*Hiti: ~H* $W fflM~ itJ1§3H~$mt jllja';J ~*. 0. lii{t~'§ 1J a';J~~~~-j- ~t. E! ~~ ~*a'.JHJJifl:f~fH/j)a"J~WJ '. fB.t:EUft I El ~*=~~~~1:1:~~ W~m1j:~~~~z~O lEI l1'tfLi t 0. ~ifj 'lj: ~ ~!ix *am'l:~: ~ ~ ~E:~~5E ~sa'J!5I~. '. *m'Ij:W*,~. mtE ~* ~ 1:l: fOJm ~~?;tf ~ ~~. &*~. 0. ~~ fJe ~'Ij:~* $'t-. ~i~ ¥ L~ml!ff~~IMl5J-~. '. , fJeIRtt '. .. ~ ~¥* fr"j. ~)J~~ 5E. ment) ~ 5E ~ ?§Jib*gfj tE~~pJT. ffi it Bjj mi ' ~ltt i1tD~ j..:J,~F.¥,3:.a';J ~iJlft±w ' *!!fj' Ij:~~~El1it~. JJ{'Ij:~.. 0. *;rrJ 'Ij: ~ ~. ~~JE :rre';J m~ -ili.1fM ~*5f.'Ij:~ ~. ~"k-tfJlJ.~. fl~a';J~ ~ $. ~*$ I '"'F~~1b. ¥5ca';J ~*. 0. ). ~~~ "~ ~JII ~~::j>"~E:¥H:X ¥ U I. J!iif-*~F*If.J1J A~ttf1JOW*tJJ1J. WE '1 iJ iVl.i:mmle';J E! ~~~$¥u~lf ~ /p '1 *>C7:J~i[E~~11*-gjJPfT~~. ,. *=~*(natural. *"J:f3B';J ttij~~$:mj:117m ~ pfT 5 1~. has significant effect on Taiwan's total unemployment rate.. ~. *Mt4. ~ m;flJII~*5:f1i~ 5E~tx(I1L~*' I;Ic. Finally. no evidence is to support the' change of employment structure. 'E ... 0. (natural unemployment). ,. D~f:EfEiJ. PJT 7f~E: ~ ~ a';J iE7t JJ1*. '. ~. l1'l::~ Ji,r. ~* B';J *l!t1<D X m.Z~E§I~*. )E [li). *. 0. , tm~E!~:1c~* a';J i~ f.N -/Jtl.1:) f:t: I3';J 1iJf ~*,a-* ' ~. ~-!J El ~1c~$~@ft:m:~ !'J';J~* ~. A 0 1lSl*~OItlIj IJr ~ ~ !lib tJ.t:EfflD~. --- 11 ' -. ,. 0. iW ~ 'E2m~. if-(llItN.'I:17JIJ La';J51-~. ,.

(3) -=-. ~. *tl.J~*fi. $.}]. ~«~M~.OO ~ *&. '~& fi. ~ ij1f ~ ~~W!;JJa':J rtm {* ' :fX1r~~OJ. ~I.·~. ~ . ·m A &0 ~ M. i).~m*~ml~*~iI {'FS':J~.mffl. ~m~~~m~~ & . o. ~fI§~'I~~. ~:>f Ii!. ~ ,. ~ M ~ ~ ~...f *tr.J{-i;~. ( ff 1 ) ;. 1€ - :ir. &:jt:f-t!!rzg~{* • *m:k'I't:~W[Zgrm. :t1rQ~I{'F« ' j€{~A ~ cS':J~!' '. a iW±lli IMi S':J 1*: ~{fft~i- Wt~~« ~5J-~*J];x~~1§-&:JFm*~~. 0. ~. OJ ,~ ~ ~ ~JJ! 'I~ ~ •. unemployment). 0. (voluntary. fN1'~H)'LS':JJj!IU'Ji:. '. :JFm* ~ Jf,'&~~.a':JEljfrzg5J-~ : (1). :fX {r, ~.1t ~ tJI e':J ~ ~ A!&~ .I.-).n,~*lb. I{'FtRl pIT~..x. ' (2) 1ttW~I{'F:.f. tJ ' 5J-7JVH.tl:HJ8Jill~~.$ • ,.. j~~ , (3) 1lf~7f ~. t~'I~~.$ • *!![j ·I~~.$& ~ ffii~. ~~a~t~I {'F*a5R ' ~~ (8). J'tf-t!!. 0. (5 ). (4). *J1Pt~~. ~('Ij:*MW~. ~.$. j£~IJA~ =. ,. (. ~j:. 2 ). 0. *f!:k'I't: ' &. ljf~=:fX{r'OJ i).~t±:l ' ~ 1978. ~~-:fX{noJ i).~t±:l '. ~ 1990.$ , 13 ~tVti!?&ia':J~ • .I.-)'fJ!!JJi!!. ~f* '. , (6). ,. (7). ~ 1981:?£ 1990.$:JtEl F'Jl ' :J Fm. '* w. • $ t:f@"*+ ~ .${0.-'¥ &~.~.IJl.a~. ~I{'F:.f~~~pIT{Ci.ttm~rut* '. F'Jlm~s':J ~tb ' rmR~~-~~S':J ~. :m 1.1' ~ if E8. 1981.$ S':J. fl::rm ~8lf!b. 0. ~ _= m~a':J~. ' ~~*~~j1f~FIH~. J't*~I {'FtRlPIT~~PITd:i .ttm ' ill. ~S':JI~~ , ~~iUat.~1b B JtI'liJi~. - .ttm~~ 1981.$7t- ' J~ .$ *t~t:f. -El . ti!?mi *~1~~~fjf 1982 .$~~. 10% .I.-)'L ' !Z9*!![j'I~~~~a~'I~I{'F. 1!!i% a':Jm~' 1980 .$f'C*MS':J*~. *a*~¥~~.PIT{Ci.ttm~ 1987 .$~. ·1~~.$*tf0~ 1970 .${-'<:*MS':J~. ~r~~a':Jm~. {'is. fN~~-S':J~.mrrzgl 5J-~Ji: ' :fX. 0. *lfj'I~~~11:-El ifll:l:iEOOia':J~~. ~PITt;}?~S':JP:j"§.jft:.fm~ , ~* 1982. 1987.$$'t- ' *!![j·I~~.$±~:>f¥u. -. ~f-t!!lf~rmi1l"¥)(~*t~~,*~'I~~* ;. 0.1%. !Z9*!!IJ'I~~ma~'I~I {'F*a*rmrll¥~. S¥t~~:~ 0.2% ' 1£~**'~~S':J 1982. ~.t~~*!![j'I~~. ; jZgI{'FtRlpIT. -. ~x*rm)fl¥~~.t~~f*·!H~.1~~ ,. S':Jl~~. 0. ~ffiiltl~~~$1£@"*+~.$. 1987 .$ili~~:JtEl fYl ' 12~~f.i~I~~. m. ~t. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990. ~F. 1}(. ~. n. 51.56 41.12 36. 94 38.28 33.5 4 34.67 35.99 36.57 34.94 33.71. 48.44 58.88 63.03 61.72 66.46 65 .33 64.01 63.43 65.06 66.29. ~. ~. ~. f!tlWifl" I. ffl W. fiJT ~~. {'F ::fii~. ::f. 8.92 14.93 14.27 11.26 24.34 18.64 13.81 11.93 13.39 17.25. 26.34 24.45 26.6 1 29.51 24.85 28.11 34.13 35.59 37.47 35.60. {'F ig. I. ~JIl ~. ~. ~ T f~ ~:fX 1r~ pITH. t±:l ~HI':J {fill. 'I~~. ; mjA~~~~U~A:Hf!brfl. fl{'I~ ~ ~$ ~ ~ ij~~'DJ til. !5ta9c~l~. ~t~~I {'F ' :jt::t~~ I{'Fa':JifE~W. -}}(~S':J~j:b ' :fX1r~!t~7JutiJm 1979 ~. -- 118-. ~. ~. 1.98 2.39 2.61 2.54 2.11 2.61 2.24 2.85 2.18 1.99. -:ir .~~~ ~~~~~~ rlJ5}~ (. ). -. ~. ~IJ. 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990. *![jt1~ ~ ~ '11. t,('I1 ~ 9i. f'F *Ei. ~~~. I. *. 4.49 7.80 9.46 9.17 7.67 8.67 6.23 5.42 4.86 4. 16. »;:. W. ~F. 0.24 0.28 0.41 0.41 0.26 0.32 0.35 0.31 0.40 0.35. ~. 1*. 0.42 0.58 0.70 0.69 0.39 0.52 0.62 0.56 0.52 0.32. . ;pj. *¥! :. fTi&IttC.:Egt~. ,. *~jdt. 0.28 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.16 0.19 0.31 0.46 0.22 0.25. A :h iiilU 1tHfH fH990, ~ (27)]{. -- 119-. ~ f:iL. :%. ~. fti!. ~. 5.78 8.06 8.06 7.97 6.69 6.27 6.32 6.32 6.01 6.37. 0. ;;'E~ffill~. ,. ~. ~tl. ,. {r~~OJ~~jZg1ttW~I{'F:>f~it ' -!13. IH~1 ( L~P] ) ~mMpIT¥~. if. *~ ·I~~.~-El~:l:iEmi. 26.43% gfl 7t£ 1990.$S':J 35.60% '. 0. fIf {:iL : %. ·I~~.~I ' ~Q[QJ:jt:~ , fJ!!J~ 'I~~. !f11lt1§-~ * a':JmrjZg , ~.$*t~i).1tW. ill m .tt. it m~ ~ 1Nff.J ~ ~ Jij{rlJ 5}~. ~1i~jZg~. 1;('I~~ T ~agtJ9X~~ • .1.-).. .. ~ ~ ~ ~~t .~ .M.~~t~. ff. 1993.f6 fl. 0.

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(8) .fjh*~1i. $i. --t:. .=-. ~. $,jJ. ~ R ~~~t .~~ ~ . li ~t ~ . ~. 1993-+6 fJ. 1F<)\ : il' J1!iB l!ii~th j] 11iJ*~t1~lhfnWTf1)iJ~m fi ' 197 8- 1990~. i1.ttBliIi;t~~Zrr~)1-~' 1978-1990if.. f¥ fft. : % if- 5]~ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990. ~. .~ ~t ,. P. II!' f* ' t5c*. rm~& ±ti. i.ff... 1*~ ~. I. I. 24.93 21.48 19.50 18.83 18.85 18.63 17.59 17.45 17.03 15.29 13.72 12.90 12.84. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00. tOO.OO 100.00 ]00.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00. 0.96 0.88 0.85 0.80 0.74 0.65 0.5 7 0.47 0.43 0.39 0.36 0. 30 0.24. --t : il'.tt!!iiit~~Zff~)1-ftiC '. <!.t "*. ~ J2. 30.37 32.44 32.65 32.16 31.84 32.6] 34. 13 33.39 33.80 35.03 34.52 33.95 3 1.96. *-m~. ~5§ ~. ~*. 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.43. ~. 14.74 15.35 15.98 16.59 17.00 17.38 17.52 17.98 17.88 17.89 18.99 19.53 19.68. 1978 1979 1980 198 ] 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 "~ fi ~'Ohl. *. :. f'JjfX~I~t~. ~M. ~ &~ 18. :fJJ.JlE& I. H~mHE&. *. rJimUE~. 00 AijfUE. 5.51 5.88 5.9 1 5.80 5 .71 5.43 5.17 5 .22 5.27 5.35 5.32 5.45 5.54. ,. :%. jifiJU':i. ' HR I!&. A1J ji1w.~ Hif-¥fH990' ~ 4 1-43 J[. ...... 128 ....... 13.73 13.62 14.13 14.30 14.76 14.98 14.95 15.35 15.62 15.89 16.13 16.14 16.78 0. 1978 L979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990. 2.47 3.8 L 1.96 2.02 2.13 2.50 2.4 1 1.88 1.24 1.84 2.90 2.20 4.1 2. 8';] ~;f4H~ffijf~. 0#[1'1& '. 1.78 1.87 2.12 2.29 2.44 2.46 2.49 2.56 2.74 2.86 3.32 3.76 4.28. WTtE UJ ~ t13f£(%). ,. I. ~;f4~O~ : fR~fJi& ~ 1:HWr1 ' A1J Ji1W. waJ WMt~ if. ~&1990 '. 1978-1990if. (M) ff!l fft.. if 5]U. I. 7.54 8.04 8.44 8.76 8.17 7.40 7.13 7.01 6.79 6.91 7.26 7.58 8.23. if. 75U. 0. :t~fB[~f=ri@w*Sffi. * I. ' ~1JlIDfljffl[PJ - M fM:l a~ M i5! ~IJ 9'J .$'«*4:imf=r [PJ;j:1. B'J;@I!f/i7J-·ffi ' It*lj~S7jUt,mCl)~ &.. T {-t*S~ I'bEJ If:I~ ' RUL f-t*~}JE~. (2):r\; :. *~~,. MI'l'J~~ $ · S I.m WT:ff)lJ~m l5( ,. * * W * * * 7j- 7jUf-t~:t:E 5% &. t *-ftHf@ M ~. ~ *-'JPfTfE H8'J:@ ~$*ff~. RU = 0.14 - O.M T+ 0.008 S1 + 0.93 RUL, (2.01)** (0.38) (0.32) (2926)***. (1). t *-ft~tflli ±?J ~ M ~. ~ 1990 if. zr~. 1'l'J25:c ~. R2 = 0.99, D-W = 224;. ~. RU = 2.18 - 0.U78 S1, (3.69 )*** (0.55). ,. ,. 1%. fljffl jj@:fj! , SI flf-i.!li3'J 0. , ~~~:t:E 1978. , -giiilt1E~~ r~IUljt:M:. ~ 33c~jjJ::tJ m * ff.S.e'J25:c. .~IH§t:w~t~~ $ @:~£JUf~8,:]~. (2 ). Fi ' ~~ R2 = 0.558, D- W = 128 J...j...t~j'\$'. RU. 0. {-t~~~*. *)C8'Jm~ M m. ' -- 129 . ' f:f 1978 ~.

(9) !E 'I). 1990 if- z fi,Ej ,. i:l aJl:tm mia':J~~1~ .L-:J,.. f~ lii t j: 1k ~ F.S 3=:. ' ,_. ~ t~. L;R: ~ 1£. M ' *- *':J ~ 1970 if- ft *Me':J~fg: tE~- HzM rdl . -aiW i 980 .fF. {-\: *. 0. :tmr&s':J §. ?&1k~ $.if i5]}.%. fBlf~8~FJj iffim:i% s':JftJ!rt:J. 0. zr;. *4lt JjfJ1Ja'J l?vt~u~~ ~. :7]'.fRs':J. ~ iJ~lffiJs':J. ~5( ~ ~5U:b. z #;i;i] 1J e':J l¥!. ,. *'. H. ~Ii!. q. 1* '. ffiJ /f flJ. 1i~jZ:~~ !I!Q~ ( i% ~&l-:J.L ). ~ Et3 ~ I-. lin 1J s':J l¥! ~. Z 93'. -' f~ U@rH ~ [QJ J£. 1978 ~ 1990.!:f. zOO ' # ~:ttEmis':J ~. , ~ffiJ OJf'jg -~~ ~ ~~**. t±l ~* *5 m 23c ~~!& ~ [5J iJf*Fdls':J. - Mr~. 5ix ~lU5m~ ~{N *- 8':J2~~' m .~. 24 ~.fF. (;lMJ3.B':J~'i'~t *tJJ. :tJS'Jl¥!*. ' ~~¥.f7Jtl/fflJs':J >l'-~. fB ~tAP~ ~.fF. «iMJ3.z ~t~tW~tt~. ~~~-t3zmH¥t£#fJi. (cointegration) a':J MIl. a W b PWf~1*~~tfJl-ffli t ~ftH:7]'~cs':J. ~W O. tt 5 :. iHfM~~t7frOJ~&~*~!'t=j~~~ffiJ~r:xe':J~~ , OJm~ .~·I:j:~*,am 'I:j:~*. 0. t.:tx.4t. 0. i:l 1iil:tm lI1i ~~i~*5 ms':J 23c~ , :t:E~ roJ t~W 15 -. .. ~u[~ ·I:j:{fJ3..g-~~JE~a':J·. *D~ 23c ~ . ~~ $ ¥x~f~*'n m *. ~$eP~~j,f~:B':J~~. , tH 15 - 19 ~ .fF. r!l%*.l3.B':J~. e,,]~~:t. * s':J ~t±l ~. e';J c~~. t:es- :1Joo '. Granger (1987). •• ~~ Ma ~~t~.ff. 0. ~11~t~~*$a"J~ f~' ~tfttE* 0. ~~~~~. 1993J¥-6fl. :WfiJ1i~ '¥t. 0.9% '. . lfflJo~'. 0. *a* [QJ ffiJ !lJtt:r~ , Jt[.fF.*. lJJj:tE mJ~~*5m s':J23c~. :73'.fR • :fi:1r~ s':J*¥i:*5 :~I(!JI~/J ' . £@J ~+ ~if- ff~;~*5 m s':J23cW. ,. 'Jl. Casson, M. (1983), Economics of Unemployment: An Historical Perspective. Oxford: Martin Robertson.. :73'.fIT!JJtff- i:l ~:tlli ml9'f jfJ 1J WJ* $5.. Driehuis. W. (1978), "Labour Market Imbalances and Sturctural Unemployment,". s':J 23c~. Kyklos, 31, pp. 638-661.. • ~ ~~lf1¥t1k*$£~~~~. a';J ~~ o. Dungan, P. and A Younger (1985), "New Technology and Unemployment: A Simulation of Macroeconomic Impacts and Responses in Canada," Journal of Policy Modelling,76, pp. 595-619.. ft. *'. Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), "Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation. and Testing," Econometrica, 55(2). pp. 251-276 .. . 1 : ~ A ~gf~:emM *;@~ -t3~e:i§III~ fIH:J<¥UIf'F ' WIf'Fm:~~fU~, &I {'F ~ ~t~:r7:WWI)J 8':Jr!A11* :ff Jl ~'ft?f'j§fiiJE. 0. ' ~~*[ZQJ}t~JjiH!J~t1:~*. 0. ~i§1,mJ}t. 0. iJfE. Friedman, M. (1968), "The Role of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, 58, pp. 1-17.. El mr:fi: fFJ~ygm~~~ Jl-t AJJ~mf~li;'t'I:1:1k~ , 9)ZgfJ!m Hart, P. E. (1990), "Types of Sturctural Unemployment in the United Kingdom,". .iim~o. International Labour Review, 129, pp. 213-228. ftz :m~• •~~ 1J~.~~.w ~ ~. ,~J}~p~m.fF.RMmlf'*~ ttH~. Hoque, A and B. A Inder (1991), "Sturctural Unemployment in Australia," Applied Economics, 23, pp. 723-730.. I:t 3 :. :wgf~s':J:1J ?$:1t~~,EfH:J.13gt§ ?&~~ $ , :jt~ fi~tlll8':J:1J ~$:~ 13gt I lii ~ f~~~ 1k ~* ziQJ~ s':J:1J~ ~ , ffiJl~ ~~t±lW-~ JEz~ ~lN~HN: $f§ t1tl!! a':J*:*$ f'Fm ~~ ?ia':J §?&~*$. 0. :95 - 11!mThlH~s':J:1J~*m13H~. ~~~ f~IR'I:1:~IiHM1If'1:1: ~1}£(z iIDlS[ a~:1Jl~~. , ffiJf~Et3*at$lt1:~I5(f3H. §?&1k*$o 4 : RUI55J. RU. Johnson, G. E. and P. R. G. Layard (1986), "The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Explanation and Policy," in O. Ashenfelter and R. Layard, eds., Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. II (Amsterdam: North-Holland), pp. 921-999. Lilien, D. M. (1982), "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Poli. CJ~g~~FJEJi~. (nonstationary) W~ ,. - 130. f!f1f~~[]lft. • fN:f1J Engle. tical. ~conomy,. 90(4), pp. 777-793.. - 131.

(10) Lilien, D. M. and R. E. Hall (1986), "Cyclical Fluctua ions in the Labor Market," in 0. As henfelte r and R. Layard, ds., Handbook of Labor. conomics, Vol. II. (Amsterdam: North-Hollan ), pp. 1001 -1035. M itchell, W. F. (1987), "What is the Full Employment U ne mployment Rate? Some Empirical E vid e nce of Structural Unem loyment in A ustraJja, 1966 to 1986," Au traIian Bulletin of Labour, 14, pp. 321 -327. Nicke ll, S. (1990), "U nemp loyment: A Survey," Economic Journal, 100, pp. 391-439. R issman. E. R. (1986), "W hat is the Natura l Rate of Unemployment?" Fed ra l Reserve Bank o f Chicago Economic Perspectives, pp. 3- 17. St ikov, V. (1966), "Some Determinants of the Level of Frictional U n mployment: A Com parative Study, " International. ~. abor Review, 93(5 ), pp. 530-549.. 132 -.

(11)