相互依存理論興起的背景及其發展過程

全文

(1)lrnn. ~I. ;{"'..)I~f'. !~:UJ". B'~~'N',". !'i}o(-i. tt- 'I. •••M~~.~K* •• ~ .... X. ¢ X. n. X. i\i. r. I'iiUIH:r'~. .~.. ijilti~IIIIl{). (. ~ - - , , ". ·V'. ,<JCvt:wpmem (;0 - operatwn: 1992 Report ( Paris: OECD, 1992 ) , p.109. \61 (.;olbert C. Held and Mildred McDonald Held, Middle East Patterns: Places, Peoples, and Politics ( boulder: Westivew Press, 1994 ), p.368. @ Paul Jabber, "Egypt's Crisis, American's Dilemma; ForeiJln AtlJtr. (Bummer 1986 ) ; p.965.. ~~~~ ~~,. i.f:~"::::~"::::~"::::::"::::~":::'::-::::~lIot!:::::"::::~IoIfl:~>:::::: ::::x::::~:::~..:::::~. X. 41111, ~~~~itl~'i!i;1DI'(~~.. X ~,~~~~~~.~~ I. X. -1m. .t.p'~. W. X ~,~~~~itl~~~~~ ,. 111II. ~::::"::::~':::~Mf,:::..::::::_:::::w.::::;.<:::.::::::w::::~..:::::;IIIf1~:::":::::;"::::::":::;. ~i. ~~ ,. ~. 0. 0. ~~~~~V~:UIIt~~ 11lllll~~~ftrl~~ ( interdependence ) ~• • !iE~ftrl~~ 1 UM;ru->~~~~~-P<fjitr ~ ~lI!\-m\!{f:t:l +<~~m~~ r \I!H1IdHH.(I!.~ J (physiocrats) ~ ~~*Hl1!!?f«~~~~ r -B--I@j~~ J (bourgeois) ~~~~~ ~}gW ~~~~itl~m~tHlI!M:Il=SllJStr ~ r ~ftrl~~itl~fIi J (Interdependence theory) .~~~ ~ l1lllllfffill+~~i(+.Il:l-~~§:~~ ~'Rf ~ ~-+J+.Il:l-~+c::~r<.~§: () ~ftrl~~M1~m 1~~~ ~ ~WIil~~~M1~mtr~i11 • ~ ru->~~~$l!(I!.l[)~:lnKilJ~~(I!.llC ~ ~~~~~~~(I!.llC~~jI@~\I!H1I~ () J.I:l ,..j( +.Il:l-~ ~ ~~mmw~.tH.(I!.llJS~m~M1~tH.(I!.llJS~~I$.g~:t:~Ii.!. • • ~IlI\l1fttH ~ r jI@1II~~ J (high politics) \lIfttH ~~l(l!.~~\lIft~ftrl~,,*M1~~~~·Inii'~\lIftIil~~~~ r tAA:lll !!lW.~fIi J ~ ffithl::iIi~I$.g~. Introduction ( New York: Free Press) , p. 661.. Edward L. Morse,"Interdependence in World Affairs," in James N. Rosenau, kenneth W. Thompson, and Gavin Boyd, ed8., World Politics: An. ~~(}@). 8>. <4-3. @) Ray Maghroori and Bannet Ramberg, ed., Globalism Versus Realism: International Relations' Third Debate, (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1982) ·lIinl~:l.l!l&IW~w( 1 ~IUIllIllll!IW~.il:m:.tH. "W(11 ~1II\!/.~IIiI!!mml!l&il:v;:~"~i;'IIiI!!mml!l& •. ~ftrl~,,*M1~~.~~~.~:InK~~~mt\.

(2) Y:. -. '\. ... 1r. ffJ~~. ~3!~~~~~ffJ~ffJ,~~~~*o~tt~=. :& A. Ji WJ. m; 1i. 11< ti fi. I J1I! ffi Jil: ~ ag. ~'A%~'. jffi. ~. ifiU. ~~. ®ffJ~~'. iJ\. :i!1;. *~~~. 3!,. Ii. {t( fi 7 0. ~~. ~B~o~fi. ~~~. Y:~~ftm~*m**~~*~~~,~~m. ~B~.~'R~'~~.~.~'. ~~~o~m~mffi~*~*~~~ rft~m~=7'~.* • • * • • ~mR~~tto~~~.~~ffJ~~ ~~~~~~~~~o~~'~ff* Bfi~·~ffJ*~~BffJ • • ~ffJ~ r1r'l~~7.~~ttft~.~0~~ :ffJ~~·~·~~&·~~~ti~ lAffJA*:&ffJffiffi~.*.ffJoffJ r~m.ffJ~~ff~7ffiffJ.~~fi ~~.~~.~~~~o~~~~~. iiffJff~Gtt~R~ ~. ffJ '. ~. jr. f~~~~~ •. 0. ••. ffJ ffJ. ••. *~0~. .5 • • ~ ~ ~~tt~~~, fitU. ~r~~~~~~·~o+m~~ p.. ~~'~ff~'~ffJ' ibb~~. ~:!~~~~m~~R~~~@~ ~ MhI=l~3!~~¥~~~' 't.B1T* ~ rl:J ft 5l f~ ~ ~ .:. ~ -w. ~ % ~ ~ ill, t~l.t~tt~~~fi~~'*-.~. ~ RO.ffJ~ffi~.-ft~~~.~ ~~~ • • ~Ii.#~~~AA~~ f~~Y:ili~~~~~~~~8.*. Sftm~~-fi-ffJfi.ffJ.~~.~. ',pJT ' • Z ffJ ~ rJJ r ~ fflj ~ tt ' . ~!m~~~~~ffJffJ.~.~~~. 1}. -lIJ,. ••. _.m~~~~~~~*. ••. ~~~.LaW.~~~ '~~ [!~ft7~.~.~.A~~~'. ~~~~~g~ • • ~.O~~.~ aAa-.~om.o~%~0** rn-~~B§ ~~ ~~~~~,. ~OO~.fi~. ~~ • • ,~ . . . ffJ~~~08 1~.ffJAg ~~_MDB l'. 0. >-. iI n'. ~@o~~o. Ja ~*,. '"'I. OO~ • • ~. tt>-M.~ Wtm~~. ft.~zM ftm~,z. ~~ffi.;. '~ffJmO. .~*~-. ~-fi~ffJ , ~ , '1~. ~~. ~.. ~~,*. ~~~tt • • R~ ffJffJ~* ~~~~ .~~.. .,.ffJ .~ • • .~*+ ,~~~ ~~~m. A.~'. Ji IJ\ ,. ~J. ti7~.. ~LZ~~~. ~~~. ~~~~ I~, II ~ ffJ.ffiR 0. ~~~ffJ ~'ffitt ~XIi~. .~{t(~. ffJ' ff. ~. ~~ffJ.. .. .~.~. 'ffJfi~ ~~ftffi. ~.~ .~o~ ~~m7. ~~R~. m~=$~a f~~* ~~fl*' ~ifcr.sRffJ ~ • • ~ffia~ • • • ~. *_ ~~Ii.ill~ ffJ~~~ ~~ W • B ~ ffi • ffJ ~ $ sm ~~ ~ • • ~.R ~ffJffJ. m.. 0. 0. ~.. II~. ffJ B. 1i.. 11< ;fj. ag. m. 1ft ~. ~+. ;!I.J 6'. ~. /\. :~. (I). ffim Ii=. {t(M. ff ffJ lJ1.. •. tt ~ ;. (2). ffi Ii {t( ff. f!i! :A mm ~ ~. ffJ. 'W ~ ;. (3). ffi. Ii. *. ffJffJft~~.. -$~ ~~~. ffJ.OO. fi. Ii.~. (4). ff ffJ. :A. BotfltR. ~~. m. • fU 1f tim *=. ff f!i! mfBA BA. ~ft ~~. hffi. '\. 7f'j~Jl.. .~. ~~ ~~. *. 1:£ JI\: r5.2 ~IJ ~. ~~IIJ. ~,. ~~. ~. • •~ ~.* 7 ~ Jf. ~~~1Il. 0. *>c. 0. ~*-tt,. .~~~O' ,~~.~~. ~~*.R~ ~~'ffJ.~. ~~~~M~. 7~~+'~ ~ ~ ;fL 1i ~ fi. ~~.. ~o7 •• ~. ffi~,. ~LOO ~. I¥!. 3i!lJ ;. *E aim.

(3) It. :t:ti4'rtm-~$' 0. -. .,. ,--.-.,. ~1,I!1~I~lllmifffi~-<~·:ltH~~lI!HIllHM:!tl$lK-IDl~amtl!111Hj:J<.4t1 ~ ~;w:!lI!!~~ w ,*,"li!!!!!-R~lC,*,.IJ *~~IiD~~~~*. ~. @) er.r-lllIRobert. o.. 0. !~,!)lf!m !t1~~~ ~um -B« W~lI!~i!!I..L! Iiti 1JE.f'-.~~!oo~. Keohan and Josephs. Nye, 2nd., Power and Interdependence (Boston: Little Brown, 1989 ). p. 3,. 0. ~~§m~K-~~QtlllHe;::~~~~~~_~ ~~~*-H[[W-tJO.lit-e;::~~~ ~ 1iD~.~~l!t~.1I1 ( AGENDA ~li!!!!!~~~ ) ~ ~~Bl<4t1n.JK-~tW!I!:~;;~IIf$!ll@!~~t?~~:lt1~.~o~W~~~~W.:lJ!Jlr<lf!m~~~e;::o@l~f!m$1mtW~~'~~,. ~4t1'~~~-<~~~~~~k~~~~~bo. 1lI! MI~~~ :a:m~W -tJO.lit-e;::~:I!IK!oo. ~1 ' ~ltri$!~m.~ll¢'~~. ~~~~~tr$;!fl:ll:!:~~:H~~• • ~~. ~ ~~~!WJ~$;!fl:ll~~~~~\lHIIl~~~~~~=~Ml~~~1Il!lt.l!!M. ~i!!t~~li!!!!!-RlC,*,~~~~!i1~~~~~~~¢$~!lIl!l-:!Z:!~~~~~Ml. ~~~fi~~~o~~~~:I!IK!oo~~~~*~.IiD~N~~~~~~~~~E;w:!o~~N~W_~'~~'-<~~fi~~M6 0. 0W!J!I,!)lll!~e::QS~. ~~~~~II:~!§~4a~~j\!!1JIffif'-.~~~*~~~St ~~*~Sf!~I~lI!~.:!tl~~~Wli~tf\l\1~~:!tl Illi£~f'-.0. 1~K<.lit-:l!lK!ooll!{rl~~~~~-trr:g:! ( Richard N. Cooper) ~ll!{rl~ W~fl:ll~~~!WJ~ .. +<fgI~:J:1(f@:Il1~~~~~.IJ (T he Economic of Interdependence:Economic Policy in the Atlantic Community) 1lItlIID.:a:~ ~ e;::1IR(f'-.!J!I,!)lll!~-R~*~ 0. 0. .IJ @. 0. :$1W9;1,!)l*.~~~*~. ( sensitivity ) ~=~. 0. 1~lll!{rl~tr~::liffi~. .IJ (§). 0. ~~.~BE~~~~~[!~. lE[~ ~ :$1~~ ~ ~~*~~Q~W1.:;W~~~t~fimr·fI:r.~l£1~f'-.fgI~!oo. ifffi1ID~~~*~ ~ ft.!Ml{lJ~N~=~~:fnKm~~~=~~lllm~=i\lW~f'-.tW!W. 1@wtl*6~m~ .. ~fl:ll~~~ 11iD~~~um~IiD~N. ~~ W~lItlIID.tr ~ -trr:W~~fgI~$1mt~ 1f!mtr'~lllli:lI1m~~~ W·W1mr~~-IHK-ttll{~*tErn:j.~~!oo~~~~[!~~IE*~~lI!!t:ft.!. 1!~H~!i1~.-. ~f@:iil? ~ 1><~gjS~~!OO~*~QMl~~~rm!$. ~Wm~ ~~~:tti*tr~Wll!{rlll1!~~~:!tl. 0. ~~~~~~~~~i!!I ·~tE-<~~~~_~~-<.:tti*~$I1m1llD@~ll!{rl w K-*~E~*tEmr~~~ ~ 1Il!lti:::J~ffiK!ooN~~fl:ll~ti:f~~m~m*~~~~=~~um~:a:~~~~~ 0. 0. ~r<-tJ+.lit-e;::~~ ~ =~~fl:ll~~~~~~$Wli~~:lt1f'-.HiE@~~ 1m~~I$~~~!lIl!l-l ~~~..L!~~fl:ll~~~~i:w:I$~ , :t{::J~~amt.~fl:ll~.W.g:~ r ~~~fl:ll~~ J ( Complex Interdependence) ~~ 11m~~II1.[~~n.JIlli£~~~N. .!i?J~~;tg. ~i:w:I$~.!i?J~Illi£~tr~~~n.J~~~~N~~~W.g:~$1mt~~~~fl:ll~~~~o. HiE@~~~f@:K+.lit-e;::~*~m~~~~~~St$;!~o:jmI~~~H=l+.lit-e;::*IffiK+.lit-e;::~~iP~~~-!f[:I!IK~~"fgI~~. ~~II1.[!§~~Illi£~*~m~~.~~fgI~~m*ifffi~!OO~~~~~~~~~~~.~~.~olE[~~~~~lI!~~$1mt~W (§) Ibid., pp. 264 - 266.. <~. @ Richard N. Cooper, The Economic of Interdependence: Economic Policy in the Atlantic community (New York: McGraw Hill, 1978), pp. 3 - 6,. ~fl:ll~~~~.~~~.~:fnK~um~~.

(4) l!11Hrn~j:j::. W;11+K@ W;111~. 0. ~o. ( Karl Deutsch) @~~~*llll1-.~ ( Kenneth Waltz) etllF-<:!f;~liilif.. (Joseph S. Nye). ,,~(. 0. Oran R.Young). ~~. (. 0. ~~~. 0. Edword Morse) ,,~~~ ( Robe. ~~+O:g!illP-<lDill~~~~ftr1~~~l;?$.m:-y.w~UJt.(. 0. lW-mm~[J(~{nIH$iii{G\ H w;tI~.~~~;w\tl1i ~ -h~~ftr1~~~~:g'+tJ!HH ~ [g{nIH~~. ~~ftr1~~~~~~:!f;$!I!~f.t~I\~~~11q ~~ftr1~~K-g!1K-m~itI~UJt.([gm~itI~~'\. "~~illP ~ :Yf~:lt1t@lIlE~~ngtl1i ~ ~ftr1~~:!tl~~~~f'-. "~J!b. g!1~~'~~l~mK-~~!al:oJ~~~~N~~,*, "l~iH~Kl!E~~ftr1~~~~:g'~~. rt 0 Keohane) 0. EEI:g. r ~ ~ ~~~~~5!:g'~~. 0. r tHE~ J. 0. ~I~@. r tHE. ~1~!1l~It~~§~K-m~~~~~.. {.lJ~W;mt-:l.R~1::;j:!f;~~ 1 !ilt!~~f'-. 1 !~Hlg.-Y:!f;. ~ ~~~~~Etf~1lIIll- 1 :!f;~~~~~~~~Etf~.@l$!~!1l~~itI,g::g'~~~ftr1~~. ~~~~l~~~~~.~~~~~itI~~l~~~~K-~~~~~~~~~m::!f;~~~~~~,,-<~W*"~~o~~~~ ~<41ffi'~~ftr1~~mJ:\1I!!:I+<~~1I@:@). 0. ~~itI~:'la-YoJ~~1::;j ~ g!1it1~~-YGllEoJ~~~~~~:!f;. ~~~1B~K+.lit~+<~~~~il?~~~~~i::;j. ~l;?$o. +t:: ~ 0. ~~¢$~I~~1~~~~~~~:!f;~9~~~~~ftr1~~!;l~IFlt{ll:g'~ 1 ~\lIll1l9li. 0. 0. !J!l~mWEEI~!~~ llW~~ 1. -y:g'~ftr1~~~l;?$ ~g!1~K-lHtmW~*~!1l~~~~~ o:g~ ~ ~~~~~~:g'~~ ~ ~~:!tl:g'~~~~~~lm1~rn~'{!~!ilt!-< ~:!f;m~. ~ftr1~~!;l~itI-\J+.lit~~K!!!Jt::~ 1 tl1i ~ g!1~f'-.-\J+.lit~*~~<+.lit~~~ ~ i.lJ$t:bK-+<~m;~fi. ~$:~*~liF~il?{P-<!~Et~iji~ ~ ,g:{$~~1Il~ ~ K-~}~~~lif~:g'~* .~1Ht~-Y1lII-\J+.lit~~~~* ~ :IllK~t@H~K~"~~. 0. 0. 0. 0. itI~~~l;?$!;l~!i><ii-e- ~ fitS13~~~~\lIll1l~~IW~!:g'~m. 0. ~ ~~~r<~!g:.tt '~:IllK~~~~tllK~I}:!f; r tfI$~,*~~l{nn~ J (Siberian Gas Pileline ) ~lm1 ··tHE~~~~~ 1 ~< 1 .litmmtfIl$':!f; r j:j::~1I@:~". J ( Cancun Summit) ~ ~~.~~$~ oJ~:!f; 1 ~1~ftr1~~!;l~oJK-~,gI~i!!~J:l'~il?~!al:rn., ~~:!f;~~~:'lal!E(~~~~ ~ftr1~~~!:g'!l!!!!iIlS-~~ 1 fitG\.r<~liEFa r ~~.~. ~ ( Neorealism ) :!f;Etf~ ~ ~ 1 fitG\ ~~$:.-e-Etf~liEFa:g' r ~m:~~ J ( International Regimes) "W ftr1~~. J (Reciprocity) ~~ r ~~~!I; J ( Poli cy Coodinationa ) illP~lm1 $:~~nt~ftr1~~!;l~!)l!!.{[IllK~~!al:-R. Et.g;;~~~:'la:!f;ll\>~{nIH-e-~K-~-<Gii$~~~ftr1~~!;l~Et~. Wesley. 1979) • pp, 129-160.. fiN " tfI+t::~~ii\Hi!~:I$~~~:g'Et.g;;-e-iii1::;j:g'~ftr1~4¢!;l~!. in World Politics, International Journal 24 (Autum 1969 ) . pp. 726 -750.. 0. ~ ii\~~Hi!~:ll;?$!;l~!:g'~~~~.fii:g'. 0. ii\i.lJ. Morse, Modernization and the Transformation of International Relations (New York: The Free Press . 1976 ); Oran R. Young, Nlnterdependence. Rebert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, eds., Transnational Relations and World Politics (Cambridge: Harvard Univresity Press, 1972);Edward L.. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of Internationsl Politics ( Reading, Mass.: Addion. @ Karl. W. Deutsch, The Analysis of International Relations ( Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 1978 ) • pp. 255 263.. G+<.~.w°l~I • • ~.~itI~O.lit~:g'.~liilif.tl1i~~~ftr1~~!;l~~\lIll1l~~~~m:~~IW.~~m:~:'la~~.Et~~. <8 @). :g'.~. ~~~~~~.~~~~~~~=~~~~~~!;l.~:!f;~~~~~~*~~:!f;"~o.

(5) - - - -••• -. .... 0~N. H. .... "'LO", ,neory or lnternationsl Politics ( Reading, Mass.: Addion - Wesley, 1979) , pp. 129 -160.. ~ 1fI~g{tt.J\{ll~~Hm~~~~~~~${!'~tr~1:::1~~\trl~.j¢Ml~! ~ ~~:t::Hm~~~Ml~~~~m1Q{qI!Jlm(ii~. 0~{~. Morse, Modernization and the Transformation of International Relations ( New York: The Free Press . 1976) ; Oran R. Young, "Interdependence in World Politics, International Journal 24 (Autum 1969). pp. 726-750.. @) Rebert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, eds., Transnational Relations and World Politics (Cambridge: Harvard Univresity Press, 1972);Edward L.. ~\IIIHl~. ~~.~~~.~{qI!fi~~~~~~.~~~~ • • ~~~~~~~~*~~~~.o. .;>~~~~m.~~~~ ;:;~ ~ ~¢I!t\ 1i~~~.~~. ~1(+.at:t:=~~~~ ~ ~\trl:&~.~!~~'M~~~~'h:t~~~ ~ :F-lo::Qm't~~~ 1 ~l{w. ~ ~m]!;! ~ ~\trl:&~.~!~P-:1~~. «. 0. ~~~~g{tttr~ 1 @.~! ~ ~m]!;!W-\J+.ll1-:t:=tr~~~~~~~ 0:InK:t:=1lR<-<~{qI!.~ ( Edward L.Morse) ,.~~~ ( Robe rt O.Keohane) ~~~!!b ( Joseph S. Nye) ~ .~~:t:=1lR<~~m]!;! ~:t:=~~~~~~~a~» (Modernization and the Transformation of International Rela tions) ~ :¥!~~\trl:&~¢'alftltlKf~~~tIlt'~~-Y~~\trl:&~ ( strategic interdependence) ~Q]~~~~~~~-Y~~\trl:& ~ ( economic interdependence) 0 ~.~~~~*~ ~ ~~-Y~~\trl:&~;;'~~~~lri!I~-Y~~\trl:&~ 0 Q]~~~~~. ~~~~\trl~~~~~~HmW~~~(~~~~~~(~~~~"~~~{wtIlt')~~~~~~:¥!~~~~~~~*~~~~0. r ~ffiI{f!~~~* J. ~~1~ 1 ~~~~!~~+<~:W~~HE 0~1!'J!!!~\trl:&~~~~~~ ~ ~~lBil~;;:~~~~tH!* 1 +<~~ ~ ~!I~m]!;!~:t:=~ ( modernizatio n ) ~1llil~ 0~~ 1 $\iWl~~~l!¥& ~ -Yn:!m~~~m]!;!~~m~~~ r ffil{f!~~* J (zero sum game) !~1~ 1 ~*~~~~~~~l!t (non - zero sum game) ~m~*,~m 0 ~~<wa~~~~~~~ffiI-m*<~ ~ ~~~~~~qj:W{qI!~~~~I~!!!. ( Power and Interdependence ) m]!;!tnlB~. r ~\trl:&~.~! ~ ~.+<~.J\{Il. 0W~~~~tr~iI?a~~\trl:&~ ~ m]!;!~~~~~.~. o:¥!. DI\~ ~ .1llf:~~\trl:&~~~tr~~~ ~ :F-l~~D(~~lBil~~~~tHR 1 +<~~**,I!l ~ ~Q]~~~~*iI?a ~ ~HE1j:!\-R~$(~~. «$!!!-R~~\trl:&~». .~~~~~.~~~~~$~~~HE1j:!\-R:F-l~~.{qI!~~~~~~l~.~~~~*~o© ~~~~~~!!b~~~. r ~~.~.~}L-{W.~lit'i! ~ ~\trl:&~~ljn@~~m]!;!~\trl~:&~~~. ~:jmI~~~\trl:&~~*,~}L-{W•... ~. Revisited," International Organization, Vol. 41, No.4 ( Autumn 1987 ) . pp. 725 -753. Morse, op. cit.,. ~1. Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, 2nd., Power and Interdependence (Boston: Little Brown, 1989) .. ~~"Power and Interdependece. @ Edward L Morse, Modernizationa the Transformation of International Relations ( N.Y.: Free Prss,1976 ) .. ©. ~\trl:&~ • • • ~~ • • ~~~~~~.

(6) ~IDl~~. !1IRll+K~. !1IR111~. --'_-:SS!:-". "',;::~"""-"""--~-----:::-",,,--:.;;,,,.:;.,....--. .,. ~I. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o~~~r~~JN~~~~~~~W~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~g ~m~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*oJ@. 0. ~~¢:~tr*~J!;~~~lfImw. 0. interdependence) J ~f'-.:ti~$g~ ~~~~~~ ~ Wl!t$. r ~Ill J11i!!llR~~s{"'1il5i*\IlII!! ~. W9;1~~ 1 ~~ip"!.JL- ~ ~~:i§~~!tb~ 1 %¢:~f'-.~~~i¢~~~~;;1atrlf!!-R~~~~*,f'-.~~~~ • . ~~~~i¢~ r J UIW~~~ 1I!!zC~tlJl;~1Il ~~~~~~~i¢~-'%~~~!llR~~trlf!!-R~~~~~ ~ ~~f'-. r ~~~ J (sensiti. ~~Ilr~. r ~.~~~~i¢ ( complex. vity ) ~ r ~~~ JI (vulnerability) ~~~l!~ o!;:!lUIW ~ !iEl!t$~~.1+l.~~~l'$N~. ( .lIlagenda ) ~-ffi~~~lf!!-R~ij-~~~~~.~$~~~*~{p..!. 0. -ffi~. r ~~ JI. ~~$~~m~~~~.~. ~~.1+l.tr~~~Ii!~$~~m~g.~~.~~~~~o~f'-.~~~m~~*~~~~~~~UIW~.-R.o~~Ii!~~ ~~~~1Il. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~UIW~.-R.~~~~~~~~~~.~mw-ffi • •-R.~¢:$*~~~o~!llR~;;1aW~~~~~. ~1Il51Sftr~miE ~ ~51Sf*<I3><~zc~~.-R1i!i ~ ~~~-K.-R~~~~mW$~~~:t:i ~ ~~~~iS!lIll~~~~mW~~"-R. .~¢:$~~~~o~~~~~~.(~~UIW~4n~)~~-RW~~~~~~~~~~-K~~~~~-R~~~mw:ti~~~~ o. 1. ~ ~$~~W~~Ii.-I(:tK~~~~tr. W< +.ut:t:.a-~~f'-.~~~« Ii.N~ .. ~~~~~~~4n~mK~iijjj:» (Afte. o~I!!~.1+l.~~~m$m~em~~~~~~i¢~~• •. ~~~~~~.~.tf W~~~~\W~~~~~~mtltr ~ ~~:i§ ~. r Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy). 0. ~ -ffi~~*~ r ~!llRIll~ J fS.$~~:!iI]"AZ~ ~ ~Ia'E~~~l!!mtl~~~P-:1 ~ ~.~~~~~~~~ ~~IfI¥i:~~¥i: (Ri chard Rosecrance) W« _~Ii!~~~.\Ii!» (The Rise of the Trading State) 1 .tr~~~~ ~ ~~+OO~jI!!j-46-~~~ • •~1+l1ll~5~Ill~tr.~~~~~~~~1+lIll~~~Ill~~~!llRIll~o~\w~~.mK~+.ut:t:~~ ~~~~~~5~~. 0. ~.¥i:~~~~~Iitl$~~:lS !J!l~ 1 5i~!tb~IfI¥i:~~¥i:~.5i~~UIW r ~{[!-ffi1+l. JI ( Neoliberalism ) mK r ~~.1+l. J (Neorealism) N:ti~ ~ ~*,~P-:1~~ffitJ!; o@IJR~ ~ ~~~~\W~~~.~$g~~~ ~~DI~tm: (Robert D. Putnam) ~~ ( Nicholas Bayne ) ~ «~4nW 1 .\Ii! .. ~~1nj[s?f• •~4[]~m!(~~» ( Hanging Together:Cooperation Conflict in ~. @ Keohane and Nye,op. cit., p. 8-9.. Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World (New York: Basic Books, 1986 ) .. @ Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy ( Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press, 1984 ) ~. r ~~~~lnJ[sl• • J. ~ $H~~~~~~~~1Jm~tf. @ Joseph S. Nyc, Jr" "'Neorealism and Neoliberalism,'" World Politics, Vol. 40. No.2 (January 1988) , pp. 235-251.. .~o. 0. r ~~-• •Iilf!!$1l!! JI ~ r ~~lilf!!~~ J tr~i¢W 1 ~1~~~i¢\W$~~l!~ W r ~~-~.. the Seven-Power Summits) ~~f'-. o~fi~I@H~~~Ii!~.~ ~~~~i¢\W~~~.5i ~.

(7) (CJ. Keohane and Nye, op. cit., p. 8-9.. 0---",. -. -O-vu_~.'-"vVpv.l(:lI,lUU. \.JunIllCt In. @ Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy ( Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press, 1984 ) Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World ( New York: Basic Books, 1986).. ~. 0. ~;r,;;;~~-\J!!!!!H~:I:R~IIm~.~. r -\J1Im~~1nI!ff• • J. ~ $.H~~~:lfi~.~~@4+lm. Joseph S. Nye, Jr" "'Neorealism and Neoliberalism," World Politics, Vol. 40. No.2 (January 1988), pp. 235-251.. the Seven - Power Summits ) :E~f'-, lH!1f.iflo. 0. , r ~~.lI!~~ J trWiI~itll ~l~Itrl~-I!t:I!W~:!fil[4rQ W r ~:m-Bml-lH!1f. ( George Modelski ) ~~~W.$!!I!~:tK$S\ ~ ~~:l::H$... ~ ~mWlmK~~:jDj!1. r ~:m-Bml-lH!1f..lI!~!!i ~. J tr ~ J;!:i~~~mWi1rr.fEt- ( Robert Gilpin). ~~Itrl~~I!W~~:!fiil5li ~ .lI!~~ 0. 0. ~l!V:W~:!fi r $1JBt~$. J ~~ r $.• • lI!~$. J g!lW~4r-~tf.fl:f\®i~iIW:!f;$1JBttr ~ ~~l!V:W~Iii'~r.E-~ r $1JBt~$. = ~tf. ~$. ~ *:%{W ~ tEmWIii'~~~ 1~1 r ~~.lI!~!!i ~ :!fi:jDj!1m-~IIm• • 'tii:~$S\ ~ W~4r-:!f;+HmM• •$1JBttr ~ ~$:g;ae r ~~\l!HI1 r W!J~\l!HI1W+H~ ~ :!fi1tJl!~ ~ ~tEiIW~$1JBt~I!i:!f;~~~~¥I1If~{nlllifl-N~:!fi~~. W+H~ ~. M~~\II\$~'l\t~. ~~.~~*_~<+~~tr~(~~mW~1~<~~~~5Ii)$1JBt~~:E~~~~:!f;~~O~trl~mW~~m~:!fi~ 0. 0. 0. W~:m-Bml-lH!1f.~1§ ~. {ill 1. <~~+. 1 rrr:::!fim.g:~~~1oI[ff~. 0. ~:tti.~ 1 ~<~~111rrr::1If1';:;j:!fi~iI;~HJ~-H<~~ ~ itlllm.g:~~ r ~~ J ffii( r ~~ J ~~ ~ ru:;t«.$.~;ae.~t:~~~~ ~ llli:1!!i~lt:(~~~ , .It:~:m~~ DR~ ~ ~~~~~ r ~m~~ ~ ~ \lIII1l~$1JBt:!fi~Itrl~-I!t: ~ ~;aeBml-lH!1f.~.:!f;:!;::1lE ~m:j~~Hm. 0. ~ ~tr-N. 1 W~~ r W:~t!l~{W. <-\J~1!!i~~~~~4+l1§~~~..ytr~~~(~Z~)~~°Iii'~~~~~-N~~r~. 4rr~~m:g4!1~lH!1f.~ ~ ~~=$;l;ae~ ~ .~~~..y:!f;~Itrl~-I!t:. r ~~~ J. 1 < ~~~~~~~~IKI(~~~~~~. .i!!:~. ~~*~~~~~~101[~~~~1. 1E-iP' ~ ~~ ~. 0. 0. ~$S\. J (Pluzza Accord) ~ 1ti:i~~ ( James Baker) 'itit~-IDi. :!fi1ll!H.$~~ ~ ~~~~:jDj!1*..yW;~{ill-mt2:~~;aell!l&iA:!fi~~ ~ g!lmW~11ti:i~~:!fi1ll!H.$~~ ~ W~~. 1ll):(~.$S\ ~ ~~~~~~~1l:;~~~~ ~ ~~<:::;t«~~t2:~ ~ ~~~~~~ll!l&~~lg~~ ~ ~~~~\~~:!f;~~11€d.11". ~~~~~r.E-~~~~~~1oI[~~~~o~uQ(~m~~~.:tti~~) '~~~~~~§~1If~~Itrl~-I!t:r~I!WJ:!f;+HmM ~'tii:0 0. Robert D. Putnam and Nicholas Bayne, Hanging Together: Cooperation and Colflict in the Seven - Power Summits (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard. 0. ~1~~ ~ w< +~~tr~$S\:E~~~~~}.trj~-I!t:~~:!f;.1\>( ~~llli:t!!iilm:E~f'-,-\J+~~tr~*~~:!f;\lIII1l~~{W~Itrl~~ $1JBt:!f; 1~I\l!Hl1~tEHI* ~ 1 ~mWW~~ r ~~~~+H~ J ~ ~+H~~~mWNAFTA ( ~~{ill-m~~~~{W ) ~ ~ U ( ~~~ ~. Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, ( Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987 ) .. Robert Gilpin, War and Change inWorld Politics ( Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981 ) .. University Press, 1984 ) .. ~. ~111. ©. ~}.trj~-I!t:I!W~!!i.~:!f;~.~~~m:g~mtl.

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)