大陸有效需求不足之分析

全文

(1)*~~~lWPj(>f'@Z7Hfr. 1. kJ 1Jl.fi3 (ti \!W ) ~HI. ,000 400. !$.. 200. 40. 200. 200. 200. 55. 40. 100. 40. 30. 30. 50. 100. 260. 400. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 100. 40. 200. 30. 140. 40. 40. 40. 300. 40. 49. 40. 55. 40. 40. 55. 55. 40. 40. 200. 200. 30. 30. 200. 40. 40. 40. 600. 300. 600. 600. 600. 400. 300. 300. 200. 300. 200. 300. 30. 40. 40. 40. 550. 40. 40. 55. 49. 200. 34. 200. 200. 400. • •. 55. 55. 40. 40. ~. m=lVf~ffrl!b'!!l!IVf~.). ~40. 40. 40. 40. i~. ( illl'Li&m*1!J!illlr;tlllQ'iIVf~,*,'C.'. ~4O. 40. 300. 300. ~. 55. 200. 200. 200. 200. *~fl~.*~JlZ7}fr. 60. 55. -~~A.~+~Q.t'*M*~• •a.~.~'**~£~*& M~***.' ~ ~.#.**~~·*~.*M.~ffl.ff~.. •• •• .~aa.~9.a.~~AD'.~.&M~*~•• ~4'M.*M. .~~M.a •• *M~~a**~~~a••a.a•• ~#·. *M~.*~• • **~~~~Wk • • ~~M.a~B~~.·~_ ~~,~li.i-ftg*~IjtA~&IfJt '1t1.!f-*M~±.-t".*>f.#,4jli.'Ii.~:tJli '. ~~~A~a**~~~~a*~~~~*#~·~~'~~~~.M.~ *T'~*I.~~m ~~Maa.'~~~m.~~Maa.~a.. ••. •• ~a*.4~.*· M.~:~at*·.&M*~••• ·Maa.· •• ~~M.. .~m~u~~_.~~~M.M~,*_*. *. •. .. ••. -ftftt~~M,* ~T.,.£.~·~ m~ T ' iff~*. *. -=p. .. ~ fJtl. -. *. •• ~~.*a.'~•• ~.ffwm.~ •• m.m.~ ~ ~·m.m.®~D•• &T.~ •• m.D~ft. mw.®J!I!~;fO.~I1'F='iliitfllfflitJLJBUtli (JohnMaynardKeynes). ••~~~~.*~.~.M*.~ •• ~®ffVI:;:~~ -ftftA~~~®~~$,*.~~ ••m •• ®.1'F~OO'~*~.~ ••M ®.*fig, •• ~mM~.M~.*~~'~.8.~~~®~.M ••• ~&. N~.#.~*.®~~~M •• 'liitfll.~m •• m.~D~w'.~~*AA.~ ®~~.*J!I!~.*.®m.ffi~~.OO' 0. ~D~~*~¥U'fflM § ~. ROO W•• *.~. ••. D. m~~. •• ~~M.*~~~~ ••*·.~~M2fi~~~.~·lli.~-~~~. ~lli~~~~U.·~&~M.~-B~~-.,*,·.

(2) .~*B.«mw·-ftft~~~.*B~wm7~D~fi~~*~~@·~~ ~~~~7fi~~*(m.~*~I~~~)ti~m*B~~~*~.~~mo*x ~m'*B~WJ~~~~~~#~~~~tt'~~~~M~M~~mOO.~m~,~. , 1IiU1lt~jlJf!:-{lE~iiJ~tjl~lZS]* ' ~:fJT~ft~i1lfrl'l~IMDiBi¥MiJD(iJD(mi.t~~~ilPJN~jI*P:IA~~$BfII mj:J ' ~:fJT*B klgtlti~. 0. *BIE~~I~ft;!iIiHp~ft;~ifHj~. 0. ~~~*~~~~IZS]~MiJD(iJD(m~iBi¥,~m~M~M~~~~ft~~~:fJT~~~iJD(. m~~'£~~~~*B=~~~~mmo*B§WJ~~W*~~m~~~~~tt~ ~~'W~.~~~~=~~i1lf~~~.~~~jlo. ~~*B~~~*~~~~~ffi~~'ffiW~~~~mW~§M~~~~.~tt MiJD(iJD(mti@~*B~.W*~~~.~. •• mM~§.?*x~~*B.~m.fi. ~~~MiJD(~m~~~iJD(m~~A~,m~M~M~~~~ft~~~1lt(~~~*~. ~~iiJx~~A,m.~~,~*~~~*,~~~tt~~)~~*B~i1lf=~~~'. i.t.WJ*B~~~~*~~~&ffi~~m~~M~:fJT~o~.~~.~,.*~.~ ~*B.~M~M~~~iJD(m~. •• ~~~tto.-·.~'m~M~~.~i1lf~~. 1lt~:fJT~~~*~~~.~o.~'~**BMiJD(iJD(m~~~~o.li·~~o. =OOOj ~.~~f ~~~~~. ~~rf'l'. ,t. ~-j. (=) m~ ~.~~~ ~I~Jf!::P ~~Aot. ~ 9\: it. iJD(tJ. . ' ~tl~W. ~~I.' WD~m?t. D~m'f:li. *~ft .®,~jM!. ~~rmM~ +)~Aitil. *B~.~MiJD(iJD(mJf!:m§-ftftA~~*'~~~~m~~~i1lf~.T'm. •. •. .~~~f.i. ~~.~~~M.ffl.m§~'~~.~fim~~'~MiJD(m~.~.£~~MiJD(. •• ~ •• ,~*~IZS]~~~~~~.ti*B~~~OO.~~.' W.M~IZS]~Jf!:*B~~~~~ ••• ~m~~~W*~~o*B~-ftft~~~M Wm~~ffl**.~·.£ •• ~Mm~~B~m.£~Mm~ ••T.m.o-ft ftA~~~~~'*B~ti~~•• *T.'WD~.~~~'~~~.~i1lfiJD(m, ~.ttxW~mo~. ~WJ~~r~~J~M~~m~~~~m(ft~~uWJ~~~~mU~~~M~~~ ~'ffi. •• w~,~~~m~I~§.Jf!:tiM~~~M). fjfl!~~i,!J'§iJD(m@. '~W.IT~.M~iJD(m~. 0. -ftftA~U*'*B~.M~iJD(mti~.M.ffl*~.~D~~~~m'~* GDP ~~*: ftJ\. B~~$r~MJ. 'fI.MiJD(~m&;tt51.~~:JjOO~.~m.ti ~~m-~li{lE~~~'R~~m~~. •••~~~~mU~~g~m~T~.~~. ~~~A;ftft~~~~~~*~~{lE~~~'.~GDP~**m~~~~~-;. tt® tt®. ~£~. r~~~~S~*~~ff~.*.~~.J. ·••~~·=oo=~~-m'~=li~=ho. EtI~*l!b!~IlIl'U!!~.f'fr· tHlu"UU-II~AfIi"~I!~m~*m~~l:'jflf~rr~' IZiIJIt.*iI~~ *1'fI'i!f~o. n® •• ~~.a.~*l!b!a~*m~~-hhh~=~·~h~~~A*=~*.m~~(a~IfI'~~) ~mlli*~o ••~~.a.~m~M~~~.am;~~.~~~~~~~£.~.·~.£••~· ~-nOO~m~.~w.·~~.*~.m~.'~.~.·x~S~*~o. 0. AU. llie.

(3) *1~U~j~WIf >1( l',IE, ztHfi. ':}tiff. *Jt. 'If] ° 'm$(. ,. JJ!. ,~~~,. 7HJT*~ ~~Wi&. =OOO~~R-l!itOO8:7t1!i'.~GDP~ ••• 8:7t~A'. *.~.m~~w. ••. 8:7t~tl!i~®o~~'~.Mi&·WMi&.~@tt'~~.~ •• RW8:7t~li·. 1\~ra'. , ~JIt§tt~&trft}!* ' t±f1::t~}!~W ' 11i'¥5Ifilt±f1::fflJE~ °. ~-tLtLA~~*''Jf.~n.liji&i&.aH••~.W:. ( = ) ilUW:iE~~fXi:&R5~.. 0. (. ~.~11. ~~A ° f:£-tLtLtL~~'Jf.6.*lmfil!ftt~. 5f;*SlM' )tftiP¥lfl ~iff~jiJ. SA. i'iIHI. 0. )~wm.~mo. llr~JJ1• • ~~. § ~:li!~:iD!1i&Jff~jf*mj}]~ra'~jf. fil.~~~~~j}]ilU~~.~.o~:li!*~'Jf.n.liji&i&m~~. ~1I*1f2. OOO~.Im~. o-~~R-mAOO8:7t1!i'.~GDP~ •••. w.~o. *slM11~. fflj fiJfNirr. 3. ~~.~~fil.M~milU.@o. (. ,. ••• ,:}tjf~*. )~ffl'Jf.6.*lmfilm~~*ti6.~Z~jf. , miR:~z*slM::t~ , ~/h*6miE '. ~*liji&~*ti6.jf~~A'~:iD!16$~Z~~wm.~m·~.~~~Ifi~'Jf. •• ~Ijfo.~.~,:7t.~*~N~~0. .~Ijf,:}t~.§~:li!~:iD!1i:&.~.~~®~A ••• ~m.~§~o (li) •• WDma*.*WDoWtitLA~~~~~~ ••• ~WD*~Nr~'~••• W. .,.~w*o (~)*~N~~0. Dma'~~WD~~N~.'mj}]~.~.o. *~n.liji&i&m.~.®M~:li!:~~~liji&~*·~fililU.~~~*~*~ jf®,~.~jf~.mj}]~.®~.,~~n. •• *m.W~.WDo-tLtLA~r. *~Im~,¥=OOO~~~filrr~milU.~~1\8~5f;,:}t~~*$:7t(~8:7t~tL. +) ~A~.m.~m ' IJ\$:7tffl~:iE~fXfii:&. ' ill:jimj}]~~ . $r~ . :iE~fta~. r,m'Jf. jf~W.rr •• t~li8m5f;°m •• ~*~~m:li!ill:jiW~~."~~,m~.m. fif~liji& ~~~,. t;~Im~ ~o-tL. tt@ . ~~~.. rft~.~m~M~~m~~fi'~.&~Ji.M~~j. 'R.~.ft. •• ~·=oo-~~~. M'R=A" tt® *g§~~~m~*~ffi:::'OO$~m~:-~~ ••ff•• m~·ftffOO~~*~~~~mA~~·~ ~~~m~~mw".·~ ••• ft·~.WW ••W.R~~.ftW~ff~*.~~M.gW.~·. ••• ~~m. ~i&m,. .~~.m~~~·~.m~~~§~2~+li~~·=.~~·~.~~R.m~~m. .~w~. ~·~~ •• ~~m~ftff~~.A~m·:::' •• ff~~~·~~.wOO~~ •• ff~~ ••• ftff~. I&i&mw. f]. ,_*. It: : tLJ\ tH~8:7t. t;1!i- ;. li":':::':h· it*.Il~. I. ff-ffli!i ). ~1iJi.M·. 1ilif!li1A~~·. tt® ~ft~.$~:-:h:hA~ffiM~.~~W~it~.~ff*ft-~Mft.MB.~m·m~~W.~B. •• ~.~~~m~§"-oOO~ftff . ~~m~~b[J~W.1mtll:A . :tl'ij'~W~.ltf,fj~.m . bll*i!!HIIIMft.1:. .·:h:h~ftff-~-§mft.MB.~~·m~~W.~B -~li§tlft.WlB.~m. •• ·=OO-~~~M~~ftff-~tlft.MB.~m~~~·ftff7E§mft~m~~,m ~:tW~$Mft·.*~ •• ~~mD::hn~t~-8~'~.Il%~~tIl: •• _*.~~~.~tIl: ~~~. itn~~mm;.~~~~~~.~m~~.lt~~~~§~.~~.m·~~~8~2~+g~~. m~mo~~~~~~.R$. •• ~A~~I.*~;.ff~~W~.r~.I~*1:m~~·.I~. .fj~~. J}jt.mIil:lltft!i~m.:::'~JliLti*.~; $.=oo-~~, ~~~W~~t§.A~¥~~~Ri. .~~*i* •• ~M~"~~.R$ •• ~ •• ~AA~ •• ~.·~~~W~ ••• ~AA.~~. ~·~ft~~~~W~. ••• ~AA~.~§~~.~~·.~$~m.~ •• ~.~~"~~·=o 8®·~mIil•• ~~fU. O-~~~M~~~m~.RM~~M~~-§:::'+litlft"~n:h~+-~. A!!.j3J(fl.~OOAm~m· ~;It)\~*g.il'JjiliD.m$li9~W~· :h:h~)(Pfij~~il'JjmD.m$· ~*g mD1It¥JJ~:q;:J$].m$ltnJ\~.il'Jjlifljli1i§*flj. . :it8~Z+li,l:. U • ~~~ . iilI'lI),( . R=J\ •.

(4) ~~~~~g®~~~~mM~·~m~£~~~~~~~~~~~~~*~.~o. -j;.. ~~,.ft*.~#~~W£~~~~~'®~~W.fi£~~~~~~.*.~~. ~~if.. 1I&t3¥U.fEJfiJ~mt~. ~fJH~. 0. M••••• ~~.~ ••T•• ~aM •• aM•• ~~~M ••• ~ OO•• T-2~~~~mo~.aM •• ~~.~: ••• ~aMm~.,~*~. f/!f.f.i~~tff1.J : ~ji~fi~ •• 7*;~UlliilJm~ , 51~ifti~IU1Hj~it~~~ , fJ!~ mit.~~~m.~;~.~.fi~§.,~.ifti •• fi~.~~~'.~ •• ~~ fi.M•• ~a.~,~.~aMm.~OO'~fi~-ftftA~~~ •• ~T-*~ m~:~m~ifti •• fi~it~~~~.;ftJ\,ftft~~~~*~~7*2ff~~.$ o ••. 1f.~:#" ~mJj. ~R~. ~.~. *.~. fltJl3*ft. (mB~Z+=~~¥A) '~ftft~@ff~~~~.'~~t~B~~~ff~~.. •• A*~~ffit~~ •• ftftA~ ¥=oo- '~R~~.~&~it~~M •• B~Z+E~E'+=~E'+=~ ft'~+-~A· ••• ~.M•• -2~~~~tffM~M ••• ~.~@o .~~.~~ ••m.· •• ~.u •••• ~~~gm.~ •• ~H1.J •• ' ~A~A*~fJ!~'~~M.~A.DIl,m~~~AM* ••• o~®,m~ ••• f/!f~gfi••• f.i~m•• ~,.~.~.~~~~w,~~.*~.~ea~.~ W~Wtff.~~~~,~®~~~m.~.,~.~.®wlJ~.m.~~~~ •• .m~.~~~.~mm.~lliAB.~;. *mm~.~.oM~M. o. ••• ~fiW.~.~.*T~*,~mM.~'.ff.~. •• f/!ff~~wm;lk.~~~.f9J~ , ffi¥~'*.~~m.~~~~.2,tl*~.~*~.~~,~ ••• ~.~~~ ~!tkl5l~ffT*lm. '. ftJ\~~IZ!3*~ftft~m-*~. ~~*~.'~~~.M*~~~m~~**lmo. ••¥Um~ •• , mm1iX~.f.i¥U~f-J~.• f.i~m~~*tt.~'~*.M~M••• ~~~~~o* •• Mwm~M*~~~ ~M*~.~~.~~'ffi~~~*~-~.~~~~H.oM~M ••• W~.~ aM••• ~* ••• ~~M~~~-2~.~'ffi.~t3~~~~*'~.M.a M•• ~.~* •• *~.~:_~.~,g.~m~~~ffT.mo. ~;fOB$lJ~m®. •• f/!f~*~~~~M*.~~.~~'ffi~ •• ~~~.f/!f-~. 0. !t@. 1flllitJ\~*m/Wftfi~.Ql!:JlU,Uj(ml¥JlalJ~JJ!· ilJ#flJifl~~'. !t®. =j(;lti.~~~=:;:1If:W*!l\~!tftHl<pm~-f!lillmmfll¥Jt/6i1lS·Jltmfl~ft/jl,*,m~~.iIi#tEl¥Jo. ~~JJ!J. r ~m{Jfftfi~.1I!:a'~i&ml¥Jli. ·M.*.·=oo-~m+=~·R-t--A·. r=~J-~~.~mftHl<pm~llm••• m~Ml¥Jllmttm~.ttl¥J~~·~ftHl<p.~~$#tE. $r,.itIHlrdl&f.tlI¥Jif!Ji' Wlll.ltllmftHl(fJ:flJ'JJ ' ~ f/1Iflilltft; (fJ if! Ji ~. 0. IZ!3ti~. ~~f'J. 1:i'J5f1* 3tW1!!: tE. :fizra'. .~. ft;*~. ~z+. ~Uat~. m~g$lJ.~~.~~~' .m~IIJ. §~*.~. "*. ~.ll:. *m~.f!i!JI:f~jj.*~.f!i!Jl:frdl~~f/l!iII.m~mm. ... ~~J:. ~. ji~J~ ~o.

(5) • \I--q..-M ' 8'=+;1;-00= o. ·li.JIUUUI~'. 6il=-:==M • rm-~;I;=oo=·. • q..--¥-M ' :ts:11!fJ!! 'KtJ:tiltll @~ r Yf.fHIUI: fi"Wl!1*::g:=IlH¢ J ,Kt!!iltll @'ll • 6il=M ' :ts:11!fJ!! • • 'V::E @'ll • • 'V£ >®'ll. ~n:rli*lI.tUlfif'. r~~Wili*M';J~f!!¥4J. ~~.~~g~~¥:oo~~~.~.~~~ow~*~.~~(q~~,~~)*. ~~~~~~.~~'fim~~~~~~~~~.~~m'fim~~.~q~~M~ ~m.~~m±~~~~~.ofimm.~oYMqy~~.~. •• ~.¥¥,.~. ~.~~.~B9m~m~~'~W~.L~~~~~~m±~~W~m.o*M~ m~~ti~~~=~~~~~.~~~~~.~m~~~~~.'~~w~m.. , !I. .~~.~.wf:§§~¥,~~~o@~~.~~.~~~~.B~~m100~~.m~. H2*. ~lIlHii ' niBGaI~lfff ••U!*~=1Sie (-) oi!( ±~~L~iliHSnf~YJ$lr , ~~&i;I¥f,~~jt*;t(~~~ · .~~tlJ.~jtq~~~1jlf ~·~.~~fim~~.oY!.~~M~~~=m •• ~ti~.· •• ~.~ti • • · ~1.w ®1f1m.inl~~t~=~~~daD ~:r.~~t~-~~~.¥ll!~¥ ' ~lii41 otj~~=~~t~lf!~t~~ •• IID-m100~lUflH2* · ~m-+~M •• ~.~q4l~.r,* .¥'~WW •• *$~~41~ •• ~¥'~If.~lIDm' ••• ~~~~¥+~~ §!fi;f±¥HllniJY.~~+!E~tHi! · ~:rt~ ~ ~M!~m+f~ ••¥*i.HI.!!1! ' ~t.*~} ~mm± ' ~.!,EJ,¥~~lf!~=~tj~jt.M.~f:§§~¥ ' ~\Wti :OO~~t~=tj~ ••~~o@~~~~J$lrm~~o~IIDID'OO~~~.!!1!:o~~¥~~~~-~~~ ~ , ~t.I~%!~~tm.~~¥*~1W~ , ~~ti : OO~~}.I~.~~tm.~ o~~'iilt:rt~~}m-+lflm$~}m.~¥ ' +fEJ,¥~m~YJ$Ir&ly~[g/4i~¥~1iffi-M~ 0. .. ,i nll. M ~. ~~~~.g.!!1!'~Wm~$+f~'®Y~~=~MOYm.~~~,Y~-~~~. (Y.-.±&l.~.~.'.IID.=~~).~~.rn'E~ ••~~~(Y~~M , ¥+:=~~§!~M*~}m.~~¥ ' iT.~. ~) Y~-~~:=~MtPOY~~~iJg. 000-. 0. liiljlf~~}m.!t~<#~[g/ '1liti.~~t.I~.~~=~I1~~¥. !it:: ~\. lMi. ~~. .~~oOY~~W*~~.ij*&m.¥·~~$~~41.'¥~~•• ~'~~.. H2*ti. f1~~. YJ$Ir~.'.OOq~~.¥~ ••g· •• ~ti~~~=~.:rt·~ •• ~MH2*~¥ ~MEJ,¥o~+f~¥MEJ,¥~ro~1liMH2*~i!(ij.ij~ • .!!1!·~tiMH2*Mm~~ ••H2*M m~~~~lii1li.H2*m.,oo~-~o.~.H2*41.· •• ~.&i;I~g~·.~W~ •• q~~~~~~*,~.~~m.. $.. ~~~1liliJijm~Jt~!J1}. o. W.~~.~·~~~~.~W4i~~.!!1!.·. ¥Tj ~~. ~~.(M).&.m.o.¥~~~.¥~~'¥f,~.~OY~.~~w'Wm$ ~~~~~~,. •• mrovI~~&i;I~.¥~'OO~-o~~W~.~MEJ,¥Mm~.. M4I.q~~~.~~~~g~MH2*'~W&i;I!tIf!t~~tj~~=.H2*~.~¥.

(6) ~~.~~~-,~~~®'~mg~*~~~~m~.®~*~~'~ffi~.~' gm'.~.~ •• ~'fi.~.M•• ~I •••• ~*A;ffifi~.M'.~. ~m~.tt~. ••M~ •• ~,£*~~~mgm'.~'~ ••• Mtt.~~~o. tIOJlt ' ~~~.®~~gHI!. 0. .M~*~~~.=ft~~,~=ft~.~-ft~."~®~~~~~~~~~, ~~~*®.M~.'~~~*®~.~~~M~o_ft~.~."~~~~~~~. J1jIJM'. m~.$UM' W.ft.fi~'. ~1MfiHfl.~*®~.~fM.. 1±flJ1jlJM' ~.:sl:$'. *~, *A!~J1jIJM®~.'. ' ~~~:ii f9lJtlO ' ~mft&\~~*a9:1(i*~®p~ 0. .M'Wp~•• ®a9:~~~~AD®.~'~~~.MAD®~mftomJlt~~~ nOO®~*,~**~m~~.®.~o *~-nOO~~m~~~~~.~m$~."~®~~,g-M~~M~®~.. , IIJ1j1J~*fi~*®~~ a9:1(iim1ij{t),* ' ~~~-tL tL~~.'*~~.II~a9:1(iM•• *'a9:1(im.®.II.~.~~*.~o~~a9: 1(i®~~tt~m' •••• '.~fi~II.®a9:1(i~m.~~IAT.'~ •• ~' .~~*®.~o~m~~~M'Hfl~~~.'~ •• M,gm~ ••-*fla9:1(i m.®•• '~§®B~~n.-Wm~*~m® •• '~:sl:.~ • • • fi~'m ~~~I.1t;fO~m1t®~~. 0. m~~~m.Wa~~.~'~a9:1(i~~ ~."~m. 'ft.~MAm~'$.~.~.*®. •••. m~®II.a9:1(i~&=ft~~"~m~.®.M®~.$.'. ~~nOO~~~7Hfl.~*®.~o. ~).A. ••~.'.A9~.M'ti.R*.a~.~.~. m.~*A®ffi~,g~*A.~~m •• ~®oo~o*Afl~~~.®~~W ~1i1tt~;~fi.~*~g~*A®.~*Bfle.*i'f:E-tLtL-t;~:¥:=ooo~ ... 8.5 % ' 3.4 %'2.2 %;fO 1.9 %; OOO~.Mg~~~ A:I:!a*'11*A~ 2,253 ft ' .lttLtL~~. 43 ft ' ~~ , .~~ •• ~¥U®A:I:!a*A~ 1,091 lttLtL~.O/ 48 ft ' T~ 4.3 % ~.g~A:l:!aI'iJ:5[~*A.(Ji~g~~B ~~6.6% '5.1 %, 7.9 %;fO 7.2 % ; -ooo~~.g~~~A:I:!a*'11*A~6,280ft ~:ltt 426 ft ~:!ttti.lt.Mg~.W 8.9 m@ (~-) 1R.l~W:I GDP :!t**~gU~ 8.6 % ' 7.8 % ' 7.1 %;fO 8%@ ~~g~lft4j\ytJ:!t~®A:I:!a*A:lttfi.*il3.B)jDfJ£~ IR.lWJ®GDP:!t(Ji ~.~~~fta9:1(i®n.~WJ ' ~WJ~~$Jf&J&*Jt~~tJ Mg~A:I:!a*'11*A~gtl.~. I. 0. I. I. 0. I. 0. 0. ••. I. w~m~~tJm*~*X.~7.~~~®.flog~*A~.'~~~~*~AD ~B~~-t;+:¥:A+®.~*A:ltt(Ji~.'. •••• Mj\ytJ*.®~.'.dg~m. .~*.~o rtHltmJ/4l1J~~J&NjllfG~iE.*i'I9~.~. it@. I!t#••. !tt@. =oo=~CPLtl.It1F. ( ~tJj{ : a:pIPHlflIT~EtBrilH±) • fin'::: •. J. 'cpIlJl:tD&'. -oo-~m+=Wl' fil1!l/\·.

(7) *~:fi~W*1'JEz5tffl. ,!!~.~,. .-. r1.j&,qg:I* ,tifIJf*~. ~.f.S~. 0. fF151. iiJ~!a. J&A. iBlIl:l!Ji'. 7. nO~re~~~*~~~A~m.M~. ~.f.S~ IlHt~1f:l. ~.f.S~ ~.f.S~ 'H;jf.S~ J1fjf.S~ J1fjf.S~. J1fjf.S~. LP!$]mJlt. iiJ~!aJ&. A!$]~. ~J&A.it. ftJi iru. }JtJJ!l:1f!. J&A. ~If:l. (l;Qiru. 686.3. 584.63. 0.85. A!$]mJlt LP!$]mJlt. JJ!l:1f!. m~f,{?tnc. 1990. 1510.2. 1278.89. 0.85. 1l®l!m·. 1991. 1700.6. 1453.81. 0.85. 12.6 %. 708.6. 619.79. 0.87. 3.20 %. k~®p.. 1992. 2026.6. 1617.73. 0.82. 19.2 %. 784.0. 659.01. 0.84. 10.60 %. ::I3t1t~~~. 1993. 2577.4. 2110.81. 0.82. 27.2 %. 921.6. 769.65. 0.84. 17.50 %. 1994. 3496.2. 2851.34. 0.82. 35.6 %. 1221.0. 1016.81. 0.83. 32.50 %. 1995. 4283.0. 3537.57. 0.83. 22.5 %. 1577.7. 1310.36. 0.83. 29.20 %. 1996. 4838.9. 3919.47. 0.81. 13.0 %. 1926.1. 1572.08. 0.82. 22.10 %. 1997. 5160.3. 4185.64. 0.81. 6.6%. 2090.1. 1617.15. 0.77. 8.50 %. 1998. 5425.1. 4331.61. 0.80. 5.1 %. 2162.0. 1590.33. 0.74. 3.40 %. 1999. 5854.0. 4615.91. 0.79. 7.9 %. 2210.3. 1577.42. 0.71. 2.20 %. 2000. 6280.0. 4998.00. 0.79. 7.3 %. 2253.4. 1670.13. 0.74. 1.90 %. 5309.01. 0.77. 2366.4. 1741.09. 0.74. tf*®l!m ;t;lt:;li!-:iL :p°Iil~Ql( ;tc~Jj:tJD ' -~~UQl(1fi. ~J.t~. · {§ ,f,{rl31<®. 2001. Mmmn& '. •. 6859.6. "----. ~ .... .... 9.2% -. -. 5.00 % -. ••• M~ •• (t.:.~~fi~ZW.tl) . Ji=A=· -hh=••• M~ •• ( ~t1R : .~~1H"~.W.tl) . Ji=AJ\ ' :::.- -hh~ ••• M~ •• (t.:.~.fi~.W.tl) . Ji=A=·. =OOO•• EM~ •• (t1R:.~~fi~.W.tl) ·Ji:::'-=':::'-:::":::':::'O·. =OO-•• EM~ •• (t1R:.~~fi~.W.tl) ·Ji:::'OI1!l':::'O~·:::'==·. =OO=•••Mtt• • ( ~t. : .1lI~1H"~.W.tl) . Ji:::'== •. -hhJ'••• MIt!8W : -hhA. (~t. : .~~m:I:l.tlW.) . JiJ\11!I •. -hhh•••Mtt!8W : -hhh. (~t. : .1lI~1H"W.tlW.) . JiJ\O • }\11!1 •. ".~:-hh=. 0. i.1i;ffi ~®~~ffii. )OO1f:lI. "1m~~1f: \.:1$) !/){ A:;Ii! i?tl1tl~B. 6,2805C ' ~*?t11~~ llYUlfg~. i*l1J1J '. *~Ql(1fi~~~*,q*~~Jj:**®mn'm~!/){A*~~.u~m~,~* ~~®*lijHIJlSlTjtjJ. , tflJJVj\,1j , f!!m~®!/){A~fll1'flm • jt'iH~iln.E~iflli:*. 0. m.M®tl.,m~Jj:~:;Ii!.*~.~~~~fi.~*~.®Jj:~'J.t~-.m.~ ffii~. , ili:;li!ftilt*®~mrl31<~$~~dmijE~;ltPJT~®Jj:tJD. 0. ?t;fff®J.t~:;Ii!~~U. ••. m~m*~®~~~~(&~k)m.M'~$?tAft~~~*®m.~~~.*~ mo~ffii,§~*~~~*~~.~~,m~ffft~~=:7C~.'~~!/){A~~'~. i*~AD. ~~M~.'.MAD~~~.AD®B?t~t+~A+'*.®~!/){A~M~M*. ~~m~m. ~m. ' J1&~~*t*~. ~@. • JiI1!lJ\. 0. ~~m~OOA m'1Znc!/){A®iltfflf~J)( (Gini Coefficient>. @ ,. m. •• ~A~~~@~~~~~~ffi~~m·~ ' ~~tl1U~AFdl~ffl~~A~iI!iE* ' JiiziE/J\ . ~i!1Jl.t-l\tIH~ ,. ~~~.~m~m~~~~A~m~I~·~tl*~A~ ~.il"~. 0 ~ 1 zF,,' , .M~*. 0. ~.~. 0.2. j;XF1.U!!~2J'~. ~~~~m~~·x~h·. . 0.2-0.3. .m.ltrc2J'~. , 0.3-0.4. zrdl~.Itrc~Jll!. r@A~A~iI!~m~'~&®~~j. ' 0.4-0.5. r,,'.m~mrc*. ,a*'=OOO~A~·. ' 0.5.

(8) -1L-t1L1f.1¥J 0.33 ..tft¥--1L1Lli1f.1¥J 0.445 fD=O 0 01f.1¥J 0.458® ' =+-1f.ra'..t ft~~Z~+1L·~+=~A.~~~'B •• ~~0.I¥JMI¥JW.~(~gm~,. j§~m. I¥JJrm. m. .m.~fr~U¥M)@om.~T~etl.~A~.~~.~*'.~.~I¥J. NAQ.~~~A.~I¥JM~'~D3~AM~I¥J~A. •• W.ffi.~.o~A*.. ~I.~.m~~ •••• ~~*~.*e~~l¥Jm.,m*el¥J.~~~.~.. fD~m~~ft~~o~~'.~%~I¥J~~'.~*~I¥J~A.~.*W ••• ~. ~.o. J§offf _tt;J. l¥Jo mti~j$~. A~;(p JI7( f"!H:~' ?&ki~~.\!:t ki ~ l¥J~i'!faJJI~ , f~Jt ~1f~H?le~. :. ~rll¥J. ~~'rl~~I¥JAm~W*B.~W~~Wrl°~j$E*I¥J~A~~~~E*l¥Jm.. ~~'~~~~ki~~~'~~-~~m~.~ki~*~ki'~~mWm~.fD*~. .AI:] , m.\!:t~m~~Af~l¥J~mM~3Z.ki~Tm.~~ .*.NfD~m.mM~ I¥Jmmw*JI7(~,w*e •• ~~~I¥J~.\!:t~ki~*M~I¥J~~JI7(~'~~T~~1¥J ;J-J§o *em.w*I¥J•• ~-1L1L~1f.Z.~~~~.'~~.1LA·1L1L1f.°-1L ;\01f.f\: ' *eJi!i-~m.~rt:J~5I~~ , zp:j$Jm.ftirt:Jfoj§~m.ftirt:J~lltl. 0.8619 fI] 0.8995 ' :i1tA1L01f.f\:Z1~m.ftirt:JI#1~§!rr4~~' ~1L01f.f\:r*M (-1L1Lli 1f.¥1L1L1f.) ~;tt~D ' zp:j$Jm.~rt:JfDj§~m.~rt:J~llUrr4. 0.7904 fI] 0.4637@ 0. 0. .iZ'A01f.f\:*~Ji!i-~.~I¥J~A~'~~~~Z1L+m~~Mm.~W'~1L1Lli1f.¥1L1L1f.~~m~B~¥8~Z~+AoD~'1L01f.f\:~M~*,*em .W*.~~l¥Jo. fli! j§~~i. IlRr~1. $'. ~l. m~*P.. ~.lH'*! 1¥JU1f~~ *..tW~. at'W~i1. '1"1. fi.'W~. •• ·j§~. JI-iti). m.ftirt:J§!r~~~; (2)~-~M'~~A~~I¥Jj§~m.~rt:J~.~~~~A~. flJ$@'. ~~.Ji!i-~j§~m.~rt:J~i'~~~~: (1)~~~~~'~~A. ~1¥Jj§~m.ftirt:J;. (3). j§~m.fti~Jt.~~mm_I¥J~IitJEtt. ' ~-m.ff. ' j§. ~m.ftirt:J~~~Am~~.JEr~'~.§!~.r~'~~~~Z~~'~~.~ .*@o~.NJi!i-~j§~m.~rt:J~§!~Dr~~~'mw~.Ji!i-~I¥Jj§~m.~rt:J fEl~. , .ND~.~®. 0. ••• rt:J#~~D.~,*eJi!i-~~A.~M. .*,~~g.m.~rt:J~~o~~A~m.ftirt:J~'~~A~m •• rt:J~om~~ m~~~~AM~l¥Jm.ftirt:JfD. ~A~I¥J~A~~.~AI¥J~m.*(~~~~Z-t+~~) '~.~l¥Jm.~rt:J~ ~,~~*e~.Ji!i-~I¥JZP:j$Jm.r~'~'T~m.W*I¥J.*ozp:j$Jm.~rt:JfD iI!@ ~:il:2J'.' r Pfilfi?tfl:; : ml@~.:biJ(J9i1J:b J 'ClI¥t'<J.'::O O-lF.H1tJtll iI!@ fflll*I!lEliW:J'Es#t£Pfilfi?tfl:;' ?J1i#J:.1i'f!' r mf!;.i&A~iEflIH!llMila~~ J ,@iJtIlM'UlfiJttfll' 0. iI!@ ff*9<'. rftllm.II*~Ib~~lR:lJUi,tJIllbiJ(J.iI.I?ttT J. 'tfIlJlltefl::' ::OO-lFml1!lJtll, J!i-1t. iI!~. *.~, r.i&A?t~~iE:J'E~W~.Il~~~.~iJ(JJ '.~M~'::OO-lFmtJtll'J!iA-to. iI!@. *.~,. iWi:!IJt, l'H:;. 0. 0. lN~. flJ.§1. #~.Ltl.

(9) r m.Ilt~i!i£[jij*~~iIit'ijl'i\l.jHI;IWIIfJ -. -. °1iYi\l¥:Vi!t!l:¥ill¥'S-+=Ef=;t=OO=. @:al. o~~M'W~i!t;t-OO='~~~~. iiII~[jij~1fl!$flt:i#I'it!l~BrlJty J. ,*.~. ~!.fillli. @:t!. o'lt-M'. o;pj,~~. ~~*M~. ••• ~.~~~'WWo. (-.)~~V+~§-~~§L. •• ~~~. '~~~~-+¥§~*~~~M~=+~-OO-~~~·~~g=~=+¥§¥ *¥~-M~-+~g¥~. ••• #.~M·g=~=~~§ •• ~V¥~+~~§. ~*M.#.~W~-·~=+~-oo=~~=+~g¥¥-,a. ••• ~~. o~ti;pj,~~.M~W.~~~~m.~.~w~,t.~.~. W~~~Bm;pj,~~M~~·~***M®:t.~ •• ~,tU~.~MM§.M : .ag:¥~"*~••~M~~~~~iif · *nt.tfgD:t.~mH~fHIUXlt. ~Y:1~t*nt. 0i~. ~~. .~$. .*S! ~ • • {j. ~~~!;. ~'.:i jJ~,. =oo=~~¥¥¥-oW.M~~tfg.~.~.¥~m-.. WY~. ' .~~inf;:gj~rnM:g b ~gj1ii"~)$Hi~~M. ' @*nt. b ~~~I!Hftrn~ld: ®.*VM.~. tfg~.M*M.w~,*~mo.*VI.~.~~x,m§~~M.~.~~~. *nt'~wM~tfg~mm~~~&~-m,~~*~~.~tfg~~~~.¥~~ o~~*~~~*~(~tfg.~.~~ .).tfg*M~ •• Mg.*o~~M±*~~~*.~~,@~ti-~V±~~* :ifg;.~!ifl1M ' ~ti.~M~}¥B!i*iJWt~ij!!iVg;.~Y1t.¥ ' lfB~~wae~M rnirt.llifffgJ±MbJ~~}I!ifl1MbJ~~}I.IW.¥~~*l}~ , ~lfB~g;ii.¥.m •• Y~IW-.~.m·~~.~}I.VM.¥~$ ·.~Mg;.~~m*.~~}lM. ·*.~~*.~~!~~g.-~~8~. •• ~MY~~¥fuo.M~~Xlt~'*. ~~~*.~~Xltm±.~·.~W~Wo~±M~gj.~~~M~'~~M.~~ ~~ij±~~~~M*ntlfB~Bm;pj,fII~M~iif''Jr~W~W Bm;pj,fII~M ' *~jJif •• ~'Y~~¥fu~~Xlt~gj~!i'~~~W~~.~MW~W.~ 0. *.'~. ~.¥,. -M· o. ®l£9fi. g¥¥ 6198'0 ¥-o. M?jq3L iJ~lfl. ¥~Dt~ .~M¥. :W;M:W;ii. ~*Y~. m~. ~fI1W~. ~M~gj.~.~~'~~.*~DB~~.,~~gj~~.~.¥~~·~~o~. ~~~~. o~~;pj,~. ~M~,~W31~~gj. •• =Ft.¥irt~ · 1{.!Il~~Y~M¥gJiif~W~=iJJ¥4. 0. ~.~~~W~=~~~~.M~±~gj~}I.~~§.¥·~fu~~M~~$. .M~~ ~6E1J~-·. •• ~jJif. , rfJJJiif·. o.~M;pj,.H"*~~~.~¥.M~gj.~.~M~'~.M ~M.~31W~·~~¥M~Y~~~~Y~'.~Y~®~M.~~~.

(10) fiI~ :ff-fiX if:~~.. 1995. 1996. ~n. 29662.3. 18Wl:ff-fiX. 5884.1. 7647.4. ~n. 8143.5. 18Wl:ff-fiX. )997. 1999. 2000. 200) 73762.4. 53407.5. 59621.8. 64332.4. 10053.1. 11615.9. 14666.7. 18190.7 22327.6. 8858.5. 7759.0. 7615.4. 6253.0. 4976.7. 7457.6. 1204.0. 1763.3. 2405.7. 2141.7. 3054.5. 3666.4. 5313.2. 18 Wl :ff-fiX/~ filIi:ff-fiX ( % ). 19.83. 19.85. 21.72. 1.75. 24.62. 8.27. 30.27. mWlJ.tf1JO.1 if: filii J.tf1J0.( %). 14.78. 19.90. 31.00. 28.12. 48.84. 73.67. 56.17. (ft7t). if: J.tf1Jo. (ft7t). 38520.8 446279.8. 1998. ~~~~~: (l).~g~*A*~~~~~'lli~~g~*A~~~ru~~@ 1lt~M!mlfff~1.J[1. 0. (2). .1\tHU*=;g§fU*-~~~IlR*. 0. Etruj~~!Wiil~I±Wl' ~. (;g § ) fIJ*~~~~Uj~~~IlR*~~~ , .~fu*:;r:m& ~~~'&W~M.~*~o (3)g~•• §~.tl.mM~:;r:a~ft°§.*~* ~fl~IIUjlJ~¥U!j\'~~lE~/j\)~~fJ~ , ~ •• ~~Ujfjfj:;r:lIi~~*~f¥f£ ' Slnm ~~~,~~,~~~o~~,§.*~~Ujtl •• ~~~~·~m,.~,~~, M~·.~~~oo~~m•• ~,g&.***AmM:;r:~'£~~~m~a••• ~om~, •• ~§~~ ••• ~m·~ •• m~:;r:.(~f¥a~~.a) ,.~. .~*~~Rn~.,&:;r: •• ~AM.o (4)g~ •• ~~.§~~~.~.* fit fU*~f~Brnr~ ••• ~*fit ' 51/t9• • mt~:ltf&~if~~ , m~1StmJlt ' #it. ~Uj~f&~if.~~ft •••• ft.~fit°g&~ ••• MUj=OO-~B~~t. m~,mA~ •• *~~:;r:~,~~ ••• ~#a •••a •• 'WH~f&~if.~' iI*~:;r:IT:Jtg~~~,. 0. ~U~Uj~~~*~if*m~~~~*.~(~.~~.:~m~m~.:;r:.A~'#. •• fJ.·m~m.~Hif~~.m~*:;r:~·m~~~ •••• ·if *~iI~~#f£~~o)@'Hm •• ~*,~~,~~~~ •• ~*fit~~ •• ~ :;r:~ , ~l!!Im~m~mmIJ\ , fflj;)• • ru.g&M.~J~~:ljU!~~ Wf'J*~iiJJ ••• #~~~~~iiJJW § , M;g § fU*~liiIA~ · 1mjfnfj~ •• ~!j. · ~mM#~.M~ ••f¥•• M~ft~.M~*~~w~~*m.(~=) ,.g~ M~~~·~M •• #.~DO'*M •• f¥~~~'#~~mtiiJJtt!j~o f£*.~~~. ~;fJ g~m)t. f¥a~Jj. jf~MJ. .1tJEi11. JimtrtiJ.lI1. ~ • •J:t. "H~f!fl fUIIJ~. ,. W~iiJJ1. ~~tt~. 1*' ~E. :;r: tJ~J1. 0. <=) *U$UU~It§N51f1.~. ~=.~,~*~~~*~.g&M.~~~m.,.jfnfj~n. ~*,~. jiltR. .Jt.1 ' f. ~DO' ~. 11 ' &1. •••• ~.M!j. ••~aMg~~M •• ~~~.'M.~*.~*~iiJJ1m~tto. fU,~~~.

(11) *~:fi~~*~Ji!zfHJT. ~~. -~~~-=oo-.*tie~.ft~.D& ~f7}. 2001. 1.7 22327.6. i.7. 7457.6. ,.4. 5313.2. !7. 30.27. ,7. ~~lJS~m.AArtiJ. Ji!i~J!~m.AArtiJ. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 26.8. 20.1. 10.2. 6.8. 6.8. 9.7. 10.1. fR(ffj. 0.826. 0.810. 0.811. 0.798. 0.789. 0.796. 0.774. IlM. 0.831. 0.816. 0.774. 0.736. 0.74]. 0.741. 0.736. fR(ffj. 0.872. 0.687. 0.828. 0.551. 0.663. 0.897. 0.537. IlM. 0.823. 0.750. 0.275. -0.373. -0.267. 2.150. 0.628. (% ). n:~~.~~~~.=~ro$,*~ • •m~*·. iiflf*lI : -1L1LIi.~I'j:IIII.It~.. (~tJi( : t:jJllfJfit4'aHIl!\lii~). 'J'I=*=. t:jJllfJfl!t4'al:ll!\liitl) 'J'I:'=:'-=' , Ji:'=:':'=:'O • =OO-~I'j:IIII.It~. (~tEr : t:jJllfJfi!t4'al:ll!\liitl) 'Ji:'=:'Of19 , :'=:'OIi' :.=:.== =OO=~I'j:III.It~. ( ~~Ji( : t:jJllfJflH"4'al:ll!\liitl) 'J'I:'=:'=-' :'=:'f19= ' Ii t;J\ • -1L1LJ\~I'j:IIII.Itff6. : -1L1LJ\~ ( ~tJi( : t:jJllfJfitl:ll!\liitll:ll!\lii) 'J'IJ\f19. -1L1L1L~I'j:III.Itff6. : -1L1L1L~ (~tJi( : t:jJllfJfitl:ll!\liitll:ll!\lii) 'JiJ\O ' J\f19 • =OOO~I'j:IIII.It~.. 56.]7 L. ( ~tJi(. :. 0. ~m:ff=1k~. '~ J$i/fffi& ~::±rm. liW*~*. ,tE ' troffi. r ' ~ff. ••M~.~~~. 1995. ~tl:.~fHIJiJM"~Ii!tt:l.\l;,*. !.4 73762.4. II. '. ;mlmNlf~. , BPfimN. 1&fU,@J& IJlt ' fi;} 1&. f-J:ff-t1.it :Jiffj1! , A.'ff ~.'Jf ~Jf1rtrm ~!jii'. , BDJig ~. 5l:rffltH!1t. fH1T:jtJ]'(~: (1) Jig~J&APlJ~~*i. ' ~U~:ffl<:f11i~1.Jtt-JIfiYt~1.Jlt9PlJ~. 0. (2). Jig~ffial<:W!1t~WffiaJ&A/f.~~.Tm.tt-J!1t~o-.ffii,mJ&AMM'. ffmlWJj.~ml.lfjl*~fU§fm' !1t:IJnm.~$i:ffm. ; i'IliJ&AMM ' ~*m.E.Df!lW ' ~~m.~~.~~.,!1t~m •• ~~mMMfttt-J •• ;R:ff~.J&AMM'mNlf ~1EJEffim.ffHM/fJE ' m.rl3J(:tt-JflJ$i!J¥tt~* ' .,~±~5IitQ~.J&AMJllt9mN 1fV1t~BPWlm. ~*l: ' ~~f:E-~~JI ' 'ifW**J&AffiWli'lliffi]Jj.~/NJ~: , m.lt9 ••~!j~;ocz,m.lt9 •• M~~~o (3)Jig~~ttlt9m.ffiWl'~~~ffiW~ f!I.ftF~ , m.rl3J(:tt-JflJ$i!J¥'jg:~ , BP:jtm.rl3J(:/fJE (4) ~~W~£MftIDill~M ft?ID1& ' ifjIJf-Jm.W3J(:lt9M5I! (5) ~~ITm.Fa~ , tt~f~~~*."Htt ' r'lIi~i'Ili ffi.~/fao (6)J&Am~tt-JM*.f-J:ff~rl3J(:lt9PlJ~oJ&A* •• m.~~i'Ilimlt9 0. 0. 0. ~~tt~.'J&A~i'Ili,m.~~~mo§iW*~J&AMft/f%.'J&Am~M*~ ~'M~.~Jig~~~lt9m.WRJ&A*.m,.~IfiYtR1.J'.~$i~.WM~m. /f1.Jtt-JJ]'(~o. (=) *U$DU~f:tf~.~.e9;t*JT Mf~UfJj~~Wt~. , jf:~~Jf~Ji*lt9jf~~*WflJ*P¥i~.lt9~.~ , 'ifflJ. .~'~Wlt9~*(l<:Mlt9fU. !1t:IJ1l '. )~~'~~Jilt9~~~*/f~~'~Jflt9~J&~~. , 5IitQOO~1I~l: ~'~~M~~Jftt-J!j~om~'~.~*IDill.fl.m~.lt9fim~*, •• jf:~lt9 ~ ••• '.m.~lt9 ••• ~;ffimNlf~*lt9.~'~~~~~Jig~ •• ~Jf·. ~ffi]~JllU~~Jf. n@ ~j!lfz'. ; ~~flJ*~. '. flJllU~AfMRJ!~lt900~. f,tiiJfJtrk~.*ill\f;l~$W'IJ$(j(j~=. ~ii*ill\f;l~$ .l!Hn.l(j(j. ' ;E.*ill\f;l~**~'IJ$ , f,tii'lt~lfjf,t. ' ffiJ;).. , {!l.RlJ.Iii*ill\f;l~$*~'IJ$ , f,tiifJ.r<lJJt1J[J 0.

(12) ~ •••• *&~.~~~~ •• m.~o.~~~.~~'.~~~.~*fi~~ .~ ••• ~.*~~.M.~.~o. , J\~fU*T~ , M!*t!P$lJ~.Tmm~ , =~T~fIJ*~-tLtLJ\ ~,~~.~~ •• ~.~.*~tLli~~=~~.§~~,~tLtL~X~tLA~~ J\~J\.§~~ ~:jt;J.ij(~ : (l)m.~*~~'~~Tm' •• M.~~~,~~m.~~w•• ~~~* ~~'~.W*.~ •• ~£.'~~.~T,~.~a~ •• ~~.'~R~~~ * ' {JJ~~ifiU~~.~ ••l!j (2) ~.~mw)J&~*/J\~flJ* ' ~.~.W*~~ B~J\~T~flJ* ' ffim ftE~lffimBjj. 0. 0. 0. ~~~M.~~(~~~a*T~) ,.~~*~~,~.~.~.~~*~~;~ ~m. ••:Jtm: ' ~.i'iflj~rl'l'~uJ\ , ~.~ •• l!j~iI!1j. *~~. m. I. 0. :Hf~tl ~mfJJ. iL,r""Nj ~rfjl¥. t1 ~13.tJ ~~aI ~~\@. 0. lli~**~~.~ff-lli~~±~~~.'~.~.±~~~~~~~.~m~.. ~~i. ~.m~~~~'~.(~~)~.~.ffiti~~o~.~~~*'*~~OO~.lli. m~*. •• ~.~§~~+ -OOO~~OO~.~~-.liT~~'~~~.~~ •• ~.~§~~Iffi+. .~.,-tLAO~OO~.Rfi-§~+li~~'~~~.~~. A:. li'MAO~~tL+-fflo-tLtL~~~M'.TAtL·tLOM~~.~.~.~~ ~'~OO~.~.M.~M~§~~-+~~;tL~~§~~+tL~~,ftEtLt~~. [ttl.1. .~.~M.~f.~.A~~'tLA~~.*.§~~+,tLtL~.~mt,_o. ;;!jUUJ::. OO~fim@~'.§~~+J\o=OO-~'~OO~.~.*~~T~'.R~ •. J!*TQ!(i. •••~.~~~.§~~Am-w+=mt'{JJ~~~fi&:jt; ••• ~~~.~. §~~+-mA.o •••• M~e •• Iffi~'ffi~.~.{JJ** •• e~,~~.. D}~ltf.. .~.~.ti~.~~~ttflB$. JIU:H~1l. 0. tf1~WJJ. (3).~.W*~~*.tt(~.~••• )~§,*~~~.±~m~.M* ~:-~Mti~*~~#m •• ~.R~.R~.~.,g-~.~ •• ~.~~fi. ~ •• ~~°ti~*#m •• ~.a. •• R~.~.Ufi.~~i'i~'.*~~~*. .iI!1j'ffi~~~~.~~mfi~.~~:jt;~.~~fi.*.~,m.~.b.~~&. .~~~~~ •• ~'R~ti~~ •• ~.~om~'~R~~~~*~fi.*~.. ••~.~~fi~.~ti~*~~~~~~~'X~fi~. rdl. •• ~.~'.ff~.~m~.~@,m~,~~~*ti~fi~.~. m~J:. ~W*iliH~~~.~~o .~mMm:'~. ~m±~~~~~~.~~.'~M~~~ •• ~ ••• ~.ofin~W~~~Bjj'. mflJ*. ~m1iS ilt@. IIlIHi(;· !ut~.II!~I¥J-='Ji~1t; ( -=). ilt@. fln.fim~~~·~~~~'.~~· r~~w~m~~~~*~~J. ilt@. iiiJ-\:::;::;:I\II!'@'fi!-~W1~W1~iXl¥Jflj*EB~-::;:~l\II!iiiJI¥JS71Z+=J.Ii~1\·. http://macrochina.com.cn/zhtg/20020418028655.shtml. 0. 0. • • • *M·=OOO~~= 1\II!3BiJ.lil\li •• ~1i::~nIJ. .@.~W=f~B~~;§M~~~f~~~~".m_~I¥J~.~m·~M.*~1i::.·X • • ~fl1i::. •• ki!l!1if;(&:~l¥Jilt.il§:'ffi'liflln!~l¥JfFm ~J\::;:.,~<P . ~iXZP:~fU*.ltffiXZP:~fU*~ • • ~J.Ii= [email protected] • !lDJltIl4~-:!Ji'_~1i::.l¥Jflj,~~W *11~ , ~tJ;, r 1»~~i&i'fHf~.l'ln'Hl!l¥Jni~J ' 0. 0. ~~*M'=OO=~~liM,~to. M' JlI. fU.

(13) *~:fj~liI*1'JE;;t7HJT. fIflJ1£ fLfLJ\ 1\~fJ&. ifi~* ~fJ&fIJ. 'f!!Eb. uu; 1m. 13. , flJ~tlhilj~~~~(fJ@ () , ~.M~.~Ji:-~ ••• fi~~M•• ~~~.M~,- •••••mm. Jj! () -~ffij ~ · ~fJ&fIJ~1!r~~-$IDJi~t'£.fimtraJJi*m~ , t1D:H~~••MJi ' a~~MJi •• ~¥afl~OOffffl,t'£.m(fJm*~ •• 'mm(fJ.~&.m.$~ (fJ.f!ij;f!!~,z.(fJ~*~.'Eb~*M!mm(fJ.*~e~~~m~~(fJ •• 'M JL\r","!HJJi'f.HI~~m~ , )Zm~!:f:1~)!:f:1 ' IJ\~F,,*~ , ;!ttJLJmI.~ft~1J~ , m~) , "*~t1 mm(fJ~Ji •• m.~~.ffij* ••• 'Ji*m.(fJ&••m() t'£~~~~t1~JiM.(fJ •• ffij~'A*~~~$~f!!~.m.~~~~*., ffijil.Jj\!:f:1*M~~fIJ~WmM~~fIJ~zrdI(fJfIJ~M. ' fi~!:f:1*M~~ (~Ji) *M!~F~tJ(fJ~~m~. ~~$~~~~(~.~~)!:f:1m~~~~~o~Jj!.~~D~~.,m~~~~~. ~tl1!r~J.'EJi~~~Ji!:f:1m~(fJ~~.~~T~ffij~~(A~Il9) o~~'*M!~~. Eb~H.. (fJ~Ji~.~'~$~~t1~JiM.(fJ. ~Jiil:\. m~*1t:~~Jj!~. 0. 7tz+. a~. ZIl9+. ••• f!ij~,~~~.~a.~*~(fJ~.ff. -nnn~=OO-~~. ~ffi'. ••ti~~. 1995. 1996. 1997. 1998. 1999. 2000. 2001. 17.50. 14.80. 8.80. 13.90. 5.10. 10.30. 13.00. ~M!t1i'fld5.t1i'fl1tm(%). 36.98. 37.40. 39.76. 41.95. 41.72. 40.79. 39.82. II-'UoM. J!:iT~~t1i'.d5.t1i'fl1tm(%). 16.48. 15.78. 15.72. 15.90. 15.02. 15.52. 15.92. i1f:Lt*. mitB~gU1t1i'.d5.t1i'.1t1l. 14.04. 12.74. 12.74. 23.72. 13.74. 15.14. 17.05. mJ.'EJi. tj:l~w)ii~1tIl(%). 21.17. 20.72. 20.65. 23.94. 25.57. 28.10. 35.02. ~~ID t;~~. '=0. ?£1.±1rrililJE.~t1i'.i1t~$. ( %). ( %). -. jff-HUll : -tLtLtL..if1lii1lalflt• • : -tLtLtL.. ( ~t1i( : l:\liUJt:ltlflllfHI:Iflf;&) • Ji)'\J\ =OOO.. l:\lliillalflt". ( ~t1i( : I:\lm~ltfF:alflf,/ffl:) , Jf1\I1!JO =OO=..if1Lilalflt... (~Uil: : I:\lmiltlltfF:alflf;&tI:) 'Jf--t;li' --t;1\' -'J\- , =.:::- , 1\1\ 0. ~m* 19~fl. 0. ~H&~ J&~)&. (1m) ~U$DJ~~Ja.~~g~.. k~Ji ~fl1£. ~.MJiM~.T~.fi~~'JmI..~ •• 1J~&1£~.~ •• (fJ.~~'ffi.. E~(fJ. •• ~~~.~M •• (fJ.~o~§~~~~Um~.MJi~*'f!!MJi~*~~~ M~~.~•• ~'&~MM~.~·M~m~tt.#~•• ~o*M!~M••(fJm .Eb~•• (fJ.~m.T •••• M.(fJ~ft' •••• M.W~M •• M.(fJ~t1 M·mWTa•••• ~(fJm~ •• o ~~~~t1~fl ••(fJ•• :Eb~*M!.fi~~ •• ,t1~~mfl.1£~,n~. ~. f!ij ,. shtml. o. )fF:~=. l:lt~nu ~mfj:lt. **11&=. 1fN> j. •. ~@. ~~. ~~I51fij, .:EllilIll'fi' r Jjiltll;Jf:#9tti'iil1l:mti""F~~i&matJ~*7Hfi j Jf-O--=o. tt.~· rl!ll."'JtlTatJ~"i&m'IIY"'J!l!liIilt~~=OO-fF:~':::Wl'. Jf-liJ\. 0. •. iit;A:ftJli . _0 O=fF:~lilUl '. '*liIiltiltll~"i&m'IIYlJatJf~*5\'!(lIj. • 1!:'1I1fi1lil2¥:·.

(14) -•• fi.~~Mmfi*~.~.'~~.~ ••• ~~~. •• *$.'~B~ •• ~.~.ff;~~fi~.~~~h •• T.~'**~~.ffW ~.~~~J.i1liR ' i£~ftflJ*flf!i!t-f~.~ft~fjgh m~~fi.ff~~fi~.~ffj ~ft.~*'mfi.ff. ~~fi.ff~'~~.~~~fi~~~~o~~.~~~fi~~~~'~~*~. 0. ~a~~-tt'~~mfi.fffimfi~.~MmM.~.'.~~.ffft.~&fi.. ~~.*~~'~M~.fi~fi~.M~~M.'~~fi.ff~A.~~*~~o~ ~:~&~~--.ffft.--~. •• M~mft.~fi~~om~,~.~.~.J.i. ' .ffm.*~1IAflJ~J&*ft~~lft"~.11~LA.J.i~J&/J\~ .ft'~*~~~fi.ff~ft ••• ~~~.~*D ~*ft.t-f~~fi~~~ •• :*.~.~.fI.M~~~mfi~ •••ffit-f. ~;:jF~fi.ffa~ , ~fi~.~;:jFmfi~.~iM!.r5~~~~~zp:~:t:m{il: l!DfiM~ ffj~.'~ ••* •• ~~~fi~ ••M•• ~&~~fi.ff~mft~M'XM~ffi. ~fE. R!~;:jF~fi.ffm~f-gft. ~'I1*.fffi~/J\.~.ft.~*tttt~~fi*~.ft. Mtt. •• ~.r5t£~.~~~*, m~.ff~.~~~fi.fi~~ft~_~~.;X~~~~fI~~~ ••••~'. m••~t£J.i.'MM.~~~•••~,~~~a~~W ••~~h~~~.o m~~7.'.~M~•• ~~.~~fI~.IIiR •• ~.ft'.ff~~ft~fI~ ~*~~~'.B.ff~••• *~.~ •• ~ •• '.ff~ft •• *o~ft.~. *.~.ff.M.~~.~~.'.~*ffW ••• ~.~•• '~~@~~.o~ ~ft •• *.~ •• ~~m •• ~'.~7W •••• ~,~~a*~mft.~~, ~~lfiIJ7W ••• (t~.~t£~fF ~~~~,m~~ •• a~~.~~w~~~.~~~~t-f.rnW7W ••• ~ .~ •• :~A* •• ~~~.~fi~.~mft' •• ~.~ti ••• ,mfi@~~. .>1<. 1IiR~.fllfiIJ~~*i5§ift. 0. .~*. 0. ' ~~lfiIJ~/J\~.~~.. jf£fiJ!t!J\.~~fI;jI~fi. 0. 0. &m.'.*&~~.~.*~M+~~~o. ••• $ • • • ·mm~ ••••• ~ •• • ~~1Im*t£"~'M*.M~ti ••• ~~~~~oM~ti ••• ~ffm~'~ .~a.".w~.ft~,.mM~. ~.~.-. ••~ ••• Mr~~~~~~~•• J '. ~'~.M.~.~ft~. ,. rm~~.J' r.*~.J. ••• ~~.mW~M.AA~.m.*.~~D~~:. (1). •• ~~;:jF~~~~~~; (2) •• I~~~).~.~ ~~~m; (3) mljm:~ •• * ' ~;:jFm •• *~:tt.; (4) mljm:.rM~.~~. ' ~;:jF&rd1~.~51 .: (5)~.~.m:~~ ••• *'~~Ah.*.MDm.~-ftftft.~~W m:.*~. -J!t~~m (~O : 3(tJF/J\.~mMjtf~ffl~~.IRVItI~~. , ~mJ&~J&~3(tJF.~.·. .~. ~lJ!. .~. ~~. .~. ~;f.!. ~3. *lfiIJ$!I!!.

(15) *~1if~tI*1',@Z5TtT. l::~~~1j. ~m~m~r~_tl~~~~J '~~~~jj~n~~~m~)@,m.&l'f~. 15. ••. ~tmifilJjj. L~WL~~.oW~~~**~~~i&~.~~~tI:I~~~tI:Il¥J~~:-~.~T. lO~jHrfD. rn~~~~~~~~~~~~iI\il¥J~W;-~~~i&~I~.~T~~ffljf~m~~. f:~~.. ~±~~~~~~~Mm~~~m±M~~~I¥J~~o~~~~ftW~'Mi&~~i&. 1ft & l'f iflj. ~Jf*~I¥J~~~*~f1.T-~I¥J~*;~iJl$~ftW~,m#H~~~~I¥J~.o. ~~o~. ~~Mi&i&~~.~I¥J~~i&~.~*~~~I¥J~~~~l'f-~I¥J~~'m~~. ~jf:~JiI,. .~~.~m'~~Mi&i&~W •• *~ft*I¥J~.:=~~.,.~wm~~l'fm. ~ft/J\1¥J. ~mo. (-) *!()Jf. iffiJfH!. =7t*iHI~lIftiU~ilr~m'j. !D~~~. ~OOl¥Jjt~~~'*~~~H-~~.~~fD~~~~~~q:r'~.fD.~~~. )(~pffi. ~~*,. •• ~~fD~fti&~I¥J~~o~~Mi&i&~ ~H~~~~fD~.~~~mr'~~~~~~*W~~I¥J.~~fD •• *~~'. iI*~ff~~'~.~~~•• *~~~~;~~Mi&i&~~-m ••• ~~~iI\il¥J. ~1t, ~. i&~o*~§~l'f~.*~~'~~W-~~~~=~~.fD.~Wmom~~~m~. kjf:~jf. QJWJ j{lIJfllU 0. ~m~IUWI¥J'WR~~~~~WI~*'. ~~I¥J~~Mi&i&~~. M~~~l'f~.*~~I¥J=~~.fD.~wm~~,~.~~~q:r§~.l'fW~o. j{~l¥J. ~.. 0. tlD. l~iI\i. '. •• i&~'M~ •• ~.iI*l'f-~I¥J~m,m~~~m*L. ~~Mi&i&~±~~~Wll¥JiI*~~i&.'m~Jf*Wlf1.~~~.* ••. orn , Mi&i&. , I~ft;fD~mft;B~:fG~ , ~~~.I¥J~1t~~B#~ ~~WI~m~*WI •• ~~fhjj~-~ m*~#H=~~.FQ~~ , I~ft;fD~mft;1¥J ~~X • • ~.'~Mi&i&~~~n ••• ~~WI~.'~m~ •• *Wlf1.~~' ~7t~~*m~ft;. 0. ~i&~f.$. ~~p~n~.*Wlf1.I¥J~.om~~*~~~=~fD.~Wml¥J~.tl:lf1'§.. t1~IIJJl!i. *~m~Mi&i&~~~*~WI~~.~~.~'~~~IIJ~~-~~."~fD~~. WJ"~I¥J~~' ~m*LM~l'f~.*~~FQ~~ ~m. 0. ~~, 'tt*~m~Mi&i&~I¥J~Jt.l. '. •• ~'*WI,fhjj~ •• fD~.'.h~i&~fD.~~IIJ'~~~~~T*~M. i&i&~~~l¥Jft~o. :'j39f. ' • • ~~L • *~~~l'f~~~~~l'f~~~H. U8.m!f1 UWI ' q:r. .#I¥J-~~.;WH~M~~. CP3i1 J. I¥Jffljfrn~.~I¥JW-~~.T.m~~~.I¥J~ft;'~~. : (1). ; (3). ;tjjl¥JiJl. ¥] M:i tI:I 'El. IF$jtjj·. ~.=. 0. ' *.m!jf:~~q:r!j\.m!jf:~. •• '~~M~ttrl¥Jm~~~~M.*~m~ttr. I¥Jm~~~~*M.*.~I¥J-~~.o~~'~_i&.I¥Jf.$.nOO,*g~MfI.. •• ~.~*M~~~.1¥J. ~.m'm.T~~i&.f.$.l¥Jffljf~~o m~~~~l'f~~I¥J~_.~'Jfjj~l'f. ••• *'fi~ •• ~m§I¥J~l'fjf:~. .ffljfil*~*~1t°~jj*~~OOW~'~~*M.*q:rI¥J~l'f~~.ff~~.~ 1¥J~*ffl.~~*.#~'~~*~~l¥Jffljfjj~~.,m~jj*~~~~~Lm~ ~R~~l'f~~$r~. tt@ Jiitt®o. , ~l'f*q:r.m!jf:~~~±~jf~.~. 0. ~F~~*MB*q:rI¥Jq:r/J\*.

(16) • •fth~. JltIi~1. t1;jP~~~fJ'f®{~.5t~~~~h o,.ff[g*~~iliJ~~JHr~mfifjjjft®I1lUfIJi!. fJ8!Mil. ff~.,m~~e.~.~~~*,_.& • • ®~~,~ • • ~~mM~~-~#. :fJO*t11 miJ. ~~~~e._.®.~'XM~~.m¥~~~,m~~.~.~~,. ,@ ,. liJFff ~ fJ'f ® tp IJ \:& ~ illl .liar ®~:& l1li f~ , mJ:J. ~1fJ ~ 1:!}J!® Ji 3ilt1)Jj l1li f~ tB§ii 0. 7t~. <=) *1Ii~mrr;,mtfmil.7l jffi1i~.~~~itEhIff.i®mIbT. '. lSLT' ~. Wmjj~. *~=~ 1!1ti ! mill ~i. ~tI~im~1i. m.~1. e?&®"¥Umjj~fJ'f; ffij*~®mjj~fJ'f~. N~~~~fJ'f®itE~,~rA~J~~®'~~~.m®~.tt~~o:&~~}J!~~ ®~,@~;it.m1i:Ji!t1mjj~ft~~t1~aiflil~' JX)Jj~~ilj)H. fJ'fffllft:l®-*9U$U1l'®liltlO. 0. m~~tJlfli.l~.~. *'. fm~~~. ~Ji3il~*~.WJi~m~~~~~.m®-ft~~~~o. 0. §J-1iiID'. , ~J!: ' )tft ' 1*1! '. 0. .rl:l~m. iID®~~~*'ffij~~~mMm~~~®o .fi~.*~®tl.~Ib#.~'M.'~~,m.,§ii~~-*~®.1l'ffl. i:&~. , J:J&ttm '. il~~~. ,. ~w. ' gm~1iiIDi!ffm~ft ' -a'~fti:&1ti ' Iil)* ' •. m'.A~~~.-.~m)Jj®.m;Iil) • • • ~~~M~A®~.'R.~ • •" .~~~,t1*~.® • • ffij~,~m.M~.m~.® • • • &ft,elb~,mm. *5!Ii$lJtt®~• •ml*.~~~~A~Ib®~f#. ; :fJ1Jl:A1Mt1~fJ'fi:&1tiHUm®~fI~ , m~~Ib§ii~~~Am~m.~&g • • • ~)Jj®m~~.o*~mjj~'tl • •M i:&1ti~*~~,~m*~~a~fJ'f • • ®mlb~~~.o. MggM• • • ®~Jldi!*.~)Jj , J1P.Jff~:fJD®5tlli ' jj~mjj3lff51~-*9JJ ~~JX)Jj , ft~Iil)~J&A~jfjlgm.{I;~rPJ®ffl.tI:fJ1J ; mm~)Jj®.m~~~1W.~ 0. m~1W*~®.mM~:Ji!~mTIf~~m~~JX)Jj®tl.~fJ'f~~o.~l:,tl.~ 0. tJ!fJ:J~j. EltlZi .~_1. ~~,. <=) flfjM~~m.~rr;,f,*f.f~3i;~It. fJ'f~~tp::f~M*I't-JA1M®jf~m.MrPJ~::ff~~®. ~;. mJ:J ' .Jfft1~~.r~®w:. '. J. m.~' ~ifliI~ ::fm~. ( ?&~~. , 7t~.ftff;Wi~Lr.r::f~ , ft~!¥.®Iil)~~Ait.tB. _$lJ". *~m~o*~m~.m'~*::fft~Be.l't-Jm~'.W5tllitl~ffijitE~®~Ait. t&:;$:'M:. ~~;itm51~®~~JX)Jj®~~. :fJ1J® '. J1P~*.*-~fJ'fit.-M.:ttt~I't-J~**~m~3tjj 'iig~~~W~Dm~EI. ;. i±@ jj1Jllif~(/f,fxtl:\~lJ;lp'jMU{]iftlJll1ji~~~~liI~tl:t'l9lltil;l(iI;l(f4ri'iJ513i!(II~JllI:AJ~jlft'l9jj1JIl' lItJlllm1i!l~ ~ • • ·~~KM~~m.~~t'l9~~·.~*~~~B~~m.M~·gW~~m.~~.~~·. ~. K t'l9iit.i}l:tM : K =.6.Y/ .6.1 -=.6.Y/ ( .6.Y. .6.C). = 1/ ( 1 -. .6.C/.6.Y) = 1/ ( 1 - b) l:t. ~·.6.I~~~.t'l9~~·.6.Y~~JllI:At'l9~~·.6.c~~m.t'l9~~·b~~~~m.~~(O<b<. 1) • mf!liJ!l!iilfljt'l9~*miillijjijm~: (1) il:fI~~II$1J~~fi7 .J!\.7!Mft'l9ifj~tlUtlj; (2) RJ!:(£~ /ti,g$t'l9a{lfl'"' ilIllfti!:t*E!f&"{t1!.l~.; (3) JllI:A~;fU1f151~m.t'l9~~· g1'flrHflJn!t:~. ~~{t; (4) il:fI~~~B~~J~!!!l • 1Itil:*.!iI§*~~~ • Rfl51~'((:It~1!1 ' 1'fl51~1JU&~IJJ· &® ftft.MaJlll:A~ftA • • JllI:-+E~~+A~~·=OOO.X.JllI:-+ft~E+-~~·_OO .jj~=+ft~t+~~~'~~~ffi~-$~.~Mffi$~lltil;l(iI;l(~~*t'l9o.~. r~~~.ftll .~t'l9M~Maa.~ • • • ~iI;l(.J. ·~~~~ft • • ft·=oo=.m~M·R-~·. rPJ'~. *_JlI.. ~~I:!. $lJi:&~. JIt,gJ. (:.

(17) *~:fi~lI*:;Y;;JE.;;t'HJT. i~f1~1Jl'. B9[ij{JfUi1! gftJ-®;JF 11* tB¥,t ~. 0. ;~~~:ff!: ~~J.1Ua~. :Wm~~. ~lm~::15 $lJJ.t;f~.. 17. •• *B9R1J·W~~ M~M•• mB9.~.~~mo~*.M •••• mtt.tt,~J.ttta~ •• (~: ~*~tt •• ~Il~B9m)")B9 •• ·~* ••MftJ•• B9mii'l'mR.~~.W *·WfiR.Il~".'M.ft~.~.~.B9.~·~ ••••••••¥®~~· R~.a~ ••Jfj§o ~.~.M •• m:ff!:-.2fi.~ •• W~Il~ •• ·~m •• ~~.~.Z. ~r·~.~~ •• ~.~l'~B9.~r~m~.~~m~ •• ~~a~om:ff!:·~ *.=~M._.ftJ.~_.~.m~·M ••• ~~ •• fi• • M~Il~~~ffi~ ~~o~.·.~~~l'~.l'm.~ff~-~ •• ~~~~rr~m@ffi~B9.~· Wfi~mR.-~~*~ •• w~~rr •• o~=~~~M•• #r·~.~¥.~ m.~tt~M •• m·Wl'*m.~~M ••• ~ ••• ~m~.~tt~.ftJ=~M .~B·.~~~~~ •• BJ.t~.*o ft~Jfj§~.B9mii.mwa*~:ff!:-~ttB9·~.~M.~. ~*'Jj1. .-!- ,. ~.:J:. " ,\,,'17. .:;;~ ...1If,J. z:ti\1t". ft • ~.fI iFfl5i::· ~*Il$lJ. a*~·*. •• ~.~~~~~~.~.~~.~~.m~~l'~o~.~.~. •• ~ftJ~J.tM.~~.~jJ£oW*.~nO~~~lltt.±.m.~~ §.Z.·m••• ~~·~~~fi~.~ •• 1'.~2.ft~~W.·~~=~M .m.~~~.a~~~ •• *~.~o~~~~~~#~®*~·~*.B9~.tt ~~~~M. ~.,m~~~'M.1Jl'~·~.*~~.*fi~a~.,~&~~~.~mii'. ••M~.W*ffi.~~:II•• ~aaft~~~M ••• m~~~.~aM~m.·.~ ••••• ~fi.o~ft'~~·~M ••• ~~¥,t m.~~.B9.Nr·.m. ~-~1~. rujJ£@o. tt*~ Jt~ii · .:II~tB. 1&)..:11. Jfj§ ;. J!DffflllUJ IE.l:to~. - b)j't. O<b< ~JU:E:!$]. JiI£N''if 1f~1';. 0. :00 gilllUl!!lJ. l'~l'~~*.ffl..a~®~~tt:. (-) *.m.ft.$lJ_.~~~ ~ffl.~m •• 1J!f1~fttr ' m.~~$lJJ.tM~e ~.~fi.~'~~M ••••fiW•• l'¥~~m*~~~m.~.o~w,m~ .$lJ_.ftJM.WI~ · .ffl.fiIlJ*,i!tl!fj!tlm•• ~ , mm~~.~j!U~fUtg~.~B9m@ m*tt_~·~*.~~M •••• ~~~~~~o* •• ~Il~~~~~m.a~ ~·.~ •• ~B9~~::I5~,m~~~ •••• ~&.~~B9.~:W.ll ••~~ • ••~Z~#~ffi ••~~ ••Mo*.ffl..~~r·.~_ •• *~~·fi~~. Wfi~ •• ~#~~~ •• ~.W.~W.~~¥~~-.tt~~~~R •• ·Wa ~~~~:ff!:M ••••• ~a~X •• T~*M.~M•• ~~~~a*~.~·~ ft·.~~~M •••• -~ •• ~ft~~M •• WI~W.~~~ffiM~o (~*.~.Mm~~~~.o~~i1!m ••• ~.,m~m.~·I.~e~ ~~·.~Mmffi •• ~·~~Mm~~l'm.mM •• WI~.~o~.*.'#m ~~1*~:II~B9:ff!:MmIJlJr.!-!~IIJ~.fi ~W*M;ffIJ~~r · ~£M;ffIJ*1i~.~:ft~ , .~~:II*~*nWffl.r~~T~~MmM~ ••• *MmB9.m~~'.£Mm~ ~~~.Mm·W •• M;ffIJ~~~~~Mmo*M~**.fi*~~.~mii·~~ 0. 0.

(18) ~~~~m~~~~~m~'~~~~~r,~~~~~~,~*~§oo~m~.~'. ~~*.M~~~.~.~.~o~~'*.~ •• ~ ••~.~~.~~.*M*. •• '~.~.~.~M~~'~.~M.#'.~§~~.o~~,* •• ~.~ ~~ttwff~~m~~m~~~.~~~~~~~*~$~M~.~~*'~.=~ .~".mi!~~~M~iJH>!1JJ. ' ng. ~1&/\jtml~iJ~~ft~~ •• m.M*~~fg;. ~o. ~~'~M~~m~n~~~L~~~~~~AA~ •• ~~'~.~*.~.~ 11lm.~.:. ~)~~~ffi~~.W.M*.~#~~. •• ~M~o.~ •• ~.~ •••. r~§J '~~*~~~~11l~~~'~~~*~~~~~L'~jt~.~W.~~ 9®1&*.~~ •• o~~,*~+~*~*~.~.* •• ,~.tl.N.o.oo. *.OO.~ •• ~~tt~.~,*.~~jt •• ~M*OO*.h •• ~*'*.~ffi. •• W~7-~~ •• m~, ~~§*~~{5~fJtti •••• ~~*~~ , 5IlJ~tlfl"I!•• fI~ , • •WWf.!§ ~~ •• ,~~ •• ,~~w~~m.~n~.m •• o~~, ••• ~~tlflN • • ~ •• 'M.AM•••• ~.~.*ttm~'~~ ~11lm.,~~~~tl .N••~W*~,.-*m~~ffing.M.~~~N.I~o.li~%.W~1&/\~ ~.~~~'~.M~~ffi~~mft •• ~tt.'~~/\.'.~~nOO~~~.~ ~~~~~~.tt~~Wo.~. ••• W~ ••. '*~. ••••. r.om. 0. ~).~%.tlfl.~~.'.li.*ng.MW**tlflN.~~~m6'.fi~. •• o~.'~~~.~~ffi~.~,,~~~~*,tt.,.~m~ Tif~nOO~~.~~~N:f±••~~lWWr{l~~Hll ~"'~.~~ffi~ , ••m$I , m~~~Tif1& •• ~'M~~nOO~~WffiW.~,~m.~~mM1&/\*~ffiWW ~m~tt.~~. 0. ?ajo. •• ~olli.~1&/\jtml~~'*~1&/\~ .~~·mM1&/\~~·mM~W.~ •• ~~ng.M§~m.~~~so (~)~.~~.M1&/\'~ •• Mm.'~ •• *~M~m~o* •• M~§* ~m~ffi~'.§~~L.*~m •• e'M~~~*M~m~~m~'w~~m. ~'~mm.£~.*.*om~,.m~M~~m.*~,~nOO.~~~~~ • • ~~£; :!i3-nOO' .~•• tJO.M~1&/\' 5'~.M.rr~~~~~*ii~~Jt, ~)~1JJ1&/\jtml'~~.Bng.~~. ~~m1JDtlfj?aj~~£. (Ii.) ~~~£. 0. ' ~~.iJ~~. 0. 'i'm.~tMm.~II1. •. tI~ , m$Ij;J:&mWn. ~~~mw~ •• *.'~~~~~~~~~'~~~~~~~*~~m~.~'~. ~*ii~tt~~~~*om~'~~~~~*~m.M*~~~~m*~m.~,~. kf.1/-~. , ~ftiE.~. '. ~iE.~lEWm:li§W~fI~~fg~fIl(~. 0. ~~~~*ii.*.

(19) *1~jH!~II*1' ,lE.Z,HIT. ImlfJtlf*6 ' ~.*"* 1!*@~*6.. ':fJJlMf=7C 1I*1fJ~{~. *1!*1fJ.~ 1~1-UI~. ~.@~~. *lIft o 1iiW '~'ff4'f§. •• 'Mm•• ~ft.*.~ffik:l1ift'~•••• ~.,.m*6~.re~ (*).m:fJJlm~~~m.~mlfJmm'B~n+~~IfJ~.M~~.,~mo~ ~*~~m~~~M&~~-~~~'~~~m~,m~~~,~~fI]~~~ff~o. ~~,~m~~mWlli*iI'~=OO=~+-~~*~ff~.~mp~~=.p* H·~~=~.=+-.P,tt-OO-~~iI~li~liTI.n.p,~~.~fI]ff ~.~mp~~.=oO-~iI.TI~~-+AmAfI]_+tmno=OO_~'~. ~.~.ff~m~-W. •• IfJ~~T'*~~.ff~ •• ~mm •• 1.:.'M~1l!.. ~~.~~'~~W§m®o .*6-nnA~~~IfJ~~~'*~~~.@. ••• IfJ~~1JOO£*~.~~~. •• ~mM~.M •• *~~offij*g§iWlfJm~~~@~-7Ck:l1i. &;tt.~~.,~ffij~~~~.*4'~fI]~~m.4'~~.#~o~~,~.~ •• 1i.~~fimM.*.~IfJ~.'~ ••MlfJm•• ~o. MIfJ.*.~,. &1fUIH{g , ~lIJfI]tl!{~. ~tt*f*1Ift i~um~tt. *. ~{~J&A~. *. *. I¥UIfJ.~. " ' if§ffij~ .tiffl]~. ftifm$f , ~jff!fIU1tl! 1{~J&AiI. fJ1l!E:* 1.:mmW ~~;tt". tftiiMm,. &mJt1J iI~'~ ~'fJfif§. ~k:l1i.* }\-t:h. 0. 19. iIt@. http://macrochina.com.cn/news_speed/cjbd/20021231042979.shtml •.

(20) Analysis of Deficiency in the Effective. Demand of Mainland China Shu-fen Hung. Abstract During the last four years the mainland's macroeconomic policy has been basically Keynesian's demand management to due to short-term aggregate de mand. This article deals with the active fiscal policy, monetary policy, Keynesian macroeconomics, economical dualistic nature, and shortage of effective demand in mainland China. The present macroeconomic deficiency of the mainland China is related to its economical dualistic nature and the reform of the system. The city-rural dualistic nature has led to significant difference of revenue and total demand, and subsequently led to deficiency of effective demand and effective supply. Because of these reasons, if Beijing only simply applies the expansile fiscal policy but doesn't eliminate the factors of fiscal policy which led to deep rooted systemic and dualistic nature problems, it would be difficult to achieve the ideal results.. Keywords: effective demand; Keynesian macroeconomics; fiscal policy; economical dualistic nature.

(21) *~fj~lI*1'..@z~;tJT. :tive. 21. *~3tJti. • ~J~UtlT ( 1992) ,. f-J~. ~~~~0Rl. **)t (2002) ;\+;\1f. «g.t~, flJ,\~UDj!f~I¥J-fd§tfJUfB» ,~~t: ~~:>c{UI:l~1E:. 0. , (gg/J*-!l!~~;g.~m!B:! (1934-1980». ,~~t: lIB~tI:l~tl' ~~. 0. IJJ~~ (2002) ,. r 'ilMr:p~*-!l!~~*I¥J~~~*~JfJ~~ J '. (*-!l!~f4~O. '1'. 35-39 f*-!Ir$~ (2002) , r fJt~.:tnB6H~Mi&i&~I¥J1f:.a ' ~*&:jtJl~~~ J ' (J5U~~ at1li~W~fu) '4' 28 ~~~(2001) , rat1li~ • •fiW• • ~~i&~l¥JliJfJ~~J ' (m.~M) ,~, 0. 0. as been ~ate. de. ynesian. iemand. 17-18 .:E/J\3 (2002) , r :lJiXmf~W~~~* J ' (*-!l!~f±flatJJlt~) '1' 23-24 I!t*~ (2001) , r r:p ~ = 7G it:i5ffU~H~ : .. illut;ffi J ' (~fi*-!l! ~litF~) '12' 17-18 1!t• • (~01) , r~~~:IJiX.g~~A~~~m.*I¥J~~J ' (r:p~Mi&) , 0. 0. 0. related. :y-rural. emand,. supply_ ~. fiscal , deep. lchieve. wlicy;. 12 ' 48. 0. (=OO=1fr:p~~lIT1f£). '~t8: r:p~~~1f£tI:l~f±'. 53. 0. .:E~JJ. (2000) , r 11IA~A~ml¥J:f]31* ' ro~JI!fD~~ J ' (~lJ) f*-j'[ZfS (2001) , rjijijt:i~f~: m~WfIJJI¥J~JfJJJ J ' (~lJpg~) '19 (2001) , r g~~A~ffiro~!m~rnuk*~J ' (~~~MBW*-!l!~~~) '9' 78-79 ~~~(~01) , r~~m.w*.JfJw.~:.a • • JfJI¥J.m~;ffiJ ' (~~m~ f~) '4' 19 $;J;a (2001) , r ~A~~~ffi~~DW~W~pgj:~~f@1¥J J ' <~~litF~) '7' 0. 0. :ifu:*. 0. 0. fr7°. • • *(2001) , r~~.~~#~~$i&~I¥J~~--g~~~_ • • • *-!l!~~*I¥J~rnufD ..mJ ' (~~litF~) '7' 35 *~ (2002) , rmj@j~~.*m~~~fi~$I¥J:E-=f~~J ' (*-!l!~Bi1i) '2' 65 ~¥jIf , 1J¥i& (2000) , r~rnu~~{;tUSW~W*~JE J ' (wrnt~~) '2' fr7° *m¥ ' ~fJ) ( 2002) , r rnu~~i&~W~~m~l¥Jgf* J ' (Jf:\7~~M) '5' 7 ~~lSrnt ' .:EJIfflw (2002) , r ~~l@~F~ftjjt~m~~~.,~,i&~I¥J~*~;ffi J ' (Jf:\ ~~¥'. 0. 0. 0. 7~~~). '5' 1()'12 ° .~~(2001) , r~.~I¥J~~i&~ • • ~rnu~.--.rnu~~W~i&~.~I¥J~ *~~ J. '. (*-!l!~aitU~lJ) '3' 158. Ja:>cm (2002) , r .,~, ' 3' 3. 0. 0. ?JF*W&"M*IU!l!~i&~I¥J~f'F~rf'l'. J '. (M*-!l!f4~). ,.

(22) &BJJ (2002) , ~1f~fIJ). ~f,t. (2002) , 78-79. r IElitWJIDlfX~'l'Jjl!H0tlfjMi&i&JifHDfj{tl~'Mlfi&~ J. '4' 14. '. (J~,;f:!U1l!.~. 0. r fX~g~m.i'I*:ttt:f.Hi1tI¥J±~I~:g~)}tJf J. (~i1!fliff~). '. •5 •. 0. • ~t~ : !f1~*ftgf~atl:H~1± • 282 (-::h::h=~!f1~*ftgf~a) • ~t~: ~*ftgf~atl:H~1±' 286 ' 311 (-::h::h1i~!f1~*ftgf~a) ,~t~: !f1~*ftgf~aWMi1± • 262 (-::h::hJ\~!f1~*ftgf.~ : -::h::hJ\~) • ~t~ : !f1~*ftgfWMif± ' 84 (-::h::h::h~!f1~*ftgf.~ : -::h::h::h~) • ~tEt : !f1~*ftgfWMif± • 68, 80 ' 84 ( OOO~!f1~*ftgf~ID' :!f1 *ftgf~aWMif±' 312' 313' 330' 640 (=OO-~!f1~*ftgf~a)· : !f1~*ftgf~I'iWMi1±' 304' 305' 322 (.=OO=~!f1~*ftgf~l'i) ,~t : !f1~*ftgf~aWMif± • 53' 175' 176' 181 ' (-::h::h=~!f1~*ftgf~a). 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 231 ' 320 ' 321 ' 324 ' 578 ' 662 (=OO=~!f1~*ftgf~a). 0. • ~t~ : !f1~*ftBt~aWMif± • 53. 0.

(23)