電動車用之新興鋰電池市場 - 政大學術集成

全文

(1)國立政治大學商學院國際經營管理碩士學程 International MBA Program College of Commerce National Chengchi University. 立. 政治大碩士論文. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Master’s Thesis. y. Nat. er. io. sit. 電動車用之新興鋰電池市場 n. Emerging Li-IonaBattery Market fori vElectric Vehicle l. Ch. n engchi U. Student: Koo, Ja UP Advisor: Professor Chester Ho. 中華民國九十八年十二月 December 2009. i.

(2) 電動車用之新興鋰電池市場 Emerging Li-Ion Battery Market for Electric Vehicle. 研究生：具滋業. Student: Koo, Ja Up. 指導教授：何小台. Advisor: Chester Ho. 學. ‧ 國. 立. 政治大國立政治大學. ‧. 商學院國際經營管理碩士學程碩士論文. sit. y. Nat. er. io. A Thesis. n. Submitted a to International MBA Program v. i. l. n C h Chengchi University National i U e ngch. in partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Master in Business Administration. 中華民國九十八年十二月 December 2009. 1.

(3) Acknowledgement. In the first place I would like to record my gratitude to professor Chester Ho for his supervision, advice, and guidance from the very early stage of this thesis as well as encouraging me to finish my thesis. I could never have embarked and finished safely the thesis without his positive support. Many thanks go in. 政治大. particular to the Specialist of IMBA program Lichi Ho who helps me a lot to. 立. finish well my whole causes. I'm sure that it would be very difficult to finish the. ‧ 國. 學. IMBA courses without her help. Furthermore, I would like to thank PhD Samuel Chen and PhD Jan-Juy Lin who approved the thesis oral test. Collective and. ‧. individual acknowledgments are also owed to my friends of IMBA.. y. Nat. sit. In addition, thank you to former LGChem Taiwan President Grant Jeong, Chul. a. er. io. Rai Jo, CFO Steve Kwon and General Manager Albert Kim and all LGChem. n. v Taiwan people who initiated l me to study and improve n i myself through the MBA course.. Ch. engchi U. Words fail me to express my appreciation to my wife Yeon Soo Yu whose dedication, love and persistent support for me, has taken the load off my shoulder. Also thank and sorry to my most lovely, cute and precious two children, MinJae and BoMin. It is my pleasure to thank to my parent. Finally I'd like to make a compliment to myself who finish the IMBA course without giving up under the various hard situations. "Randy! You did really good job and you can do it what ever you want in the future!".

(4) Abstract Emerging Li-Ion Battery Market for Electric Vehicle By JaUp Koo Depletion of oil, Increasing of oil price and rising of regulation for the environmental protection are leading the demand for the electric vehicles which are much more eco-friendly automobiles. Li-ion battery is most commonly used. 政治大. rechargeable battery for various mobile application devices and also can be used. 立. for the electric vehicles. The Li-ion battery market for EV will grow rapidly in. ‧ 國. 學. near future. To succeed in the emerging Li-ion battery market for EVs below 4 conditions should be satisfied in advance.. ‧. First, technology innovation should be achieved. The achievements of safety,. Nat. sit. y. high power and long life span are most important. Second, cost reduction and. er. io. long-term sourcing plan for Lithium are necessary. Now the Li-ion battery is. n. still much expensive compare a to NiMH battery of which v is used for current HEV. i l C n U Toyota Prius. The application of h elow i materials and economies of scale n gcost c hraw can reduce cost a lot. The pre-emptive preparation for Lithium resources are necessary because the amounts of natural Lithium are limited and the price can be fluctuated. Third, strategic alliance to win this emerging LIB market of EV is. mandatory. The joint venture and alliances among automobile companies and Li-ion battery companies can help each other because stable supplies of LIB and securing of large customers can be attained at the same time. Last, developing the new business related to the EV should be progressed in parallel. Launching of battery exchange station and charging station will affect to positively for expansion of Li-ion battery marker for EV market..

(5) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Basic Introduction of Li-ion Battery……………………………………………….….……1 1.1 What is Secondary (Rechargeable) Battery? …………………………………..……1 1.2 Rechargeable Lithium Ion Batteries (LIB) ………………………………...…….…..1 1.2.1 Characteristics of Lithium Ion Battery………………………………………..1 1.2.2 Application and Advantage of Li-ion Battery ………………………………...2 1.2.3 Shortcomings of Li-ion Battery. ……………………………………………...2 1.3 Li-Ion Battery Market …………………………………………………...…………...3. 政治大. 2. Introduction of EV (Electric Vehicle, Electric Cars) ………………………………………5. 立. 2.1 History of EV Development History………………………………………………..5. ‧ 國. 學. 2.2 Types of EVs: HEV, PHEV, BEV ………………………………………………….5 2.2.1 HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) ………………………………………………5. ‧. 2.2.2 PHEV (Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles) ……………………………………6 2.2.3 Full Electric Vehicles (FEV) or Battery Electric Vehicle……………………6. Nat. sit. y. 2.3 HEV Market……………………………………………………………………7. io. er. 3. External Conditions of EV Market. ………………………………………………………9 3.1 Depletion of Oil and Increasing of Oil Price ………………………………………..9. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. 3.2 Regulations for the environmental protection. ……………………………………..11. engchi. 3.3 Economical and Political Environments. …………………………………………..12 3.3.1 The US DOE’s ATVMLP. …………………………………………………12. 3.3.2 The Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 3.3.3 Tax credits for LIB factory investment in the USA 4 Li-ion Battery for EV. ………………..13. ……………………...13. …………………………………………………………………….14. 4.1 The Characteristic of EV Batteries. …………………………………………………14 4.1.1 EV batteries must have a large output ………………………………………14 4.1.2 EV batteries must have a long life span ……………………………………14 4.1.3 EV batteries must have great safety……………………………………..…..14 4.2 Structure of EV Li-Ion Battery. ……………………………………………………15 4.3 Trends in the LIB-powered Vehicle Market………………………………………..16.

(6) 4.4 Supply Relationships for Automotive Batteries. ……………………………………19 5. How to Succeed in the EV Battery Business? ……………………………………………21 5.1 Technology Innovation. …………………………………………………………….21 5.1.1 Safety ………………………………………………………………………..21 5.1.2 High Power……………………………………………………………….…23 5.1.3 Long Life Span5.2 Cost Reduction and Long Term Sourcing Plan………….23 5.2 Cost Reduction and Long-Term Sourcing Plan……………………………………..23 5.2.1 Cost Reduction……………………………………………………………….23 5.2.2 Long-term Sourcing Plan for Lithium ………………………………………24. 政治大. 5.3 Strategic Alliances for Win-Win…………………………………………………….24 5.3.1 Purpose of Alliances………………………………………………………….24. 立. 5.3.2 Types of Cooperation – JV and Alliances……………………………………25. ‧ 國. 學. 5.4 Developing of New Business Model. ………………………………………………25 6. References…………………………………….……………………………………………26. ‧. 7. Web Information………………………….……………………………………………27. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v.

(7) Terminolgy BEV: Battery Hybrid Electric Vehicle ECU: Electronic Control Unit EV: Electric Vehicle FEV: Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle LIB: Lithium Ion Battery Li-Ion: Lithium Ion MWh: Mega Watt Hour. 立. 政治大. NiMH Battery: Nickel/Manganese Battery. ‧ 國. 學. PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle. US ATVM: US Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program. ‧. WTI: West Texas Intermediate xEV: any Electric Vehicle. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v.

(8) List of Figures Fig 1-1 Movements in the Global Secondary Cell Market (value based)…………………..…4 Fig 2-1 Comparison of HEV, PHEV and EV………………………………………………….6 Fig 2-2 Trends in the Volume of the HEV Market…………………………………………….8 Fig 2-3 Movements in the proportion of HEVs within US auto Sales…………………...……8 Fig 3-1 World Oil Production 1900-2080 by Peak Oil Theory………………………………10 Fig 3-2 Crude Oil: WTI Monthly Price for 15 years (US$ per barrel) ………………………11. 政治大 Fig 4-1 Comparison of Potential Demand for Automotive LIB Batteries in 202x…………..17 立 Fig 4-2 Forecast for Sales for EVs by Main Brand…………………………………………..18 Fig 4-1 Structure of Li-ion Battery for EV…………………………………………...15. ‧ 國. 學. Fig 4-3 Demand Outlook for Automotive LIB……………………………………………….19 Fig 4-4 Joint Venture of Automakers and LIB suppliers in Japan……………………………20. ‧. Fig 4-5 Supply Relationships for Automotive NiMH and LIB companies. …………………21. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v.

(9) 1 Basic Introduction of Li-ion Battery 1.1 What is Secondary (Rechargeable) Battery? Battery is a device to convert chemical and light energy into electrical energy so that it can be used as a source of energy. There are primary batteries which are not rechargeable, and secondary batteries which can be reused when discharged. A primary cell is any kind of electrochemical cell in which the electrochemical reaction is not reversible. A common example of a primary cell is the disposable battery. The reaction cannot be reversed by running a current into the cell; the chemical reactants cannot be restored to. 政治大. their initial position and capacity. Primary batteries use up the materials in one or both of their. 立. electrodes.. A rechargeable battery is a group of one or more secondary cells. Unlike a primary cell,. ‧ 國. 學. rechargeable batteries use electrochemical reactions that are electrically reversible. Rechargeable batteries come in many different sizes and use different combinations of. ‧. chemicals. Commonly used secondary cell ("rechargeable battery") chemistries are lead acid,. y. Nat. nickel cadmium (NiCd), nickel metal hydride (NiMH), lithium ion (Li-ion), and lithium ion. sit. polymer (Li-ion polymer).. er. io. Rechargeable batteries can offer economic and environmental benefits compared to. al. n. iv n C batteries can be recharged many times. h eProper h i Uof a rechargeable battery system can n g cselection disposable batteries. While the rechargeable cells have a higher initial cost, rechargeable. reduce toxic materials sent to landfills compared to an equivalent series of disposable batteries.. 1.2 Rechargeable Lithium Ion Batteries (LIB) 1.2.1 Characteristics of Lithium Ion Battery Lithium is the lightest of metals and it floats on water. It also has the greatest electrochemical potential which makes it one of the most reactive of metals. These properties give Lithium the potential to achieve very high energy and power densities in high power battery applications such as automotive and standby power. Lithium metal reacts violently with water and can ignite into flame. Early commercial cells -1-.

(10) with metallic lithium cathodes were considered unsafe in certain circumstances, however modern cells don't use free Lithium but instead the Lithium is combined with other elements into more benign compounds which do not react with water. The typical Lithium-ion cells use Carbon for its anode and Lithium Cobalt dioxide (LiCoO2) or a Lithium Manganese compound (LiMnO2) as the cathode. The electrolyte is usually based on a Lithium salt in an organic solvent. Lithium batteries have now taken their place as the rechargeable battery of choice for portable consumer electronics equipment. Though they were expensive when introduced, volume production has brought the prices down.. 政治大 They are now used in very high volumes in low power applications such as mobile phones, 立 1.2.2 Application and Advantage of Li-ion Battery. laptops, cameras and other consumer electronic products. They have many attractive. ‧ 國. 學. performance advantages which make them also ideal for higher power applications such as automotive and standby power. High cell voltage of 3.6 Volts means fewer cells and. ‧. associated connections and electronics are needed for high voltage batteries. (One Lithium. y. Nat. cell can replace three NiCad or NiMH cells which have a cell voltage of only 1.2 Volts). io. sit. Li-ion battery has very high energy density (About 4 times better than Lead acid). For. er. example a 3.5 ton electric powered light van uses 750Kg of Lead acid batteries. The same. al. n. iv n C h e n gthe increased payload of half a ton. Alternatively i Urange of only 50 miles could be c hvan's. capacity could be provided by less than 200 Kg of Lithium batteries, allowing the van an. quadrupled by using the same weight of Lithium batteries.. 1.2.3 Shortcomings of Li-ion Battery. For high power applications which require large high cost batteries the price premium of Lithium batteries over the older Lead Acid batteries becomes a significant factor, impeding widespread acceptance of the technology. This in turn has discouraged investment in high volume production facilities keeping prices high and has for some time discouraged take up of the new technology. This is gradually changing and Lithium is also becoming cost competitive for high power applications. Stability of the chemicals has been a concern in the past. Because Lithium is more chemically -2-.

(11) reactive special safety precautions are needed to prevent physical or electrical abuse and to maintain the cell within its design operating limits. Lithium polymer cells with their solid electrolyte overcome some of these problems. The Li-ion battery should be certified by UL Safety Standard UL-1642 and designed to withstand in various abuse environments such as overcharging, crushing and short-circuits.. 1.3 Li-Ion Battery Market Recently, with the fast growing electronics, communications, and computer industry, the development of compact sized Rechargeable Battery has been highly demanded.. 治core strategic industries along with the three 政大 semi-conductor(brain), LCD(eyes) often compared to the hearts of telecommunication, has 立 Rechargeable. Battery. one. of. been key elements in satisfying the demand of Mobile Market of small-size, light weight, and. ‧ 國. 學. long-time duration.. ‧. The conventional applications are portable devices such as notebook PCs and cellular phones,. y. Nat. in which LIB cells have expanded their market by replacing NiMH cells since the mid-‘90s.. io. sit. Automotive LIB batteries are now certain to form a market as the second LIB application.. er. This application advanced through basic research and the beginning of development in the. al. n. iv n C h e nAtg long verification aimed at use in real vehicles. i Umass production will start within this c h last, 1990s, and from the start of the 2000s it made progress in performance, safety and cost. year. It is reasonable to state that market growth in the 2010s is guaranteed, but LIB performance will have to improve while costs fall by a large margin, particularly if BEVs are to spread in earnest. The electrical power-related field is becoming an increasingly likely candidate for the third LIB application. The potential of storage and load leveling applications combining batteries with conventional power systems, or with new energy sources such as solar or wind power, has been under consideration for some time.. Figure 1-1 shows the latest recorded results for the global secondary cell market, together with a long-term forecast. The red bar graph is for LIB for portable devices, and the blue bar. -3-.

(12) graph is for automotive LIB. The secondary cell market, built around these two main product groups, will become a JPY3.5 trillion industry in the latter half of the 2010s. Power-related LIB exists as a further addition to that market.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. ※ Source: IIT 2009. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Fig 1-1 Movements in the Global Secondary Cell Market (value based). Ch. engchi. -4-. i Un. v.

(13) 2. Introduction of EV (Electric Vehicle, Electric Cars) 2.1 History of EV Development History A recent working prototype of the HEV was built by Victor Wouk. Wouk's work with HEVs in the 1960s and 1970s earned him the title as the "Godfather of the Hybrid". Wouk installed a prototype hybrid drivetrain (with16 kilowatts, 21 hp electric motor) into a 1972 Buick Skylark provided by GM for the 1970 Federal Clean Car Incentive Program. The regenerative braking system, the core design concept of most production HEVs, was developed by electrical engineer David Arthurs around 1978. The vehicle exhibited 75 miles. 政治大 In 1989, Audi produced its first iteration of the Audi Duo experimental vehicle, a plug-in 立 parallel hybrid based on the Audi 100 Avant quattro. This car had a 9.4 kilowatts Siemens per US gallon (3.1 L/100 km) fuel efficiency.. ‧ 國. 學. electric motor and 100 kilowatts 2.3liter petrol engine. A trunk-mounted nickel-cadmium battery supplied energy to the motor that drove the rear wheels. ‧. Automotive hybrid technology became successful in the 1990s when Toyota Prius (1997) and. y. Nat. the Honda Insight (1999) became available.. sit. Audi was the first European car manufacturer to put in 1997 a hybrid vehicle into series. er. io. production, the third generation Audi duo.. al. n. iv n C Toyota and Ford entered into a licensing h e nagreement g c h i inUMarch 2004 allowing Ford to use 20. 2005 saw the first hybrid electric sport utility vehicle (SUV) released, the Ford Escape Hybrid.. patents from Toyota related to hybrid technology.. Toyota announced the new HEV car models continuously such as Highlander, Lexus RX400h (2005), Lexus GS450h (2007), Camry Hybrid (2007). Nissan announced the release of the Altima hybrid (technology supplied by Toyota) in 2007. The Ford Fusion Hybrid officially debuted at the Greater Los Angeles Auto Show in November 2008, and was launched to the U.S. market in March 2009, together with the second generation Honda Insight and the Mercury Milan Hybrid.. 2.2 Types of EVs: HEV, PHEV, BEV 2.2.1 HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) -5-.

(14) HEVs combine an internal combustion engine with a battery and electric motor in a power-assist function. The presence of the electric powertrain is intended to achieve either better fuel economy than a conventional vehicle, or better performance. HEVs allow for reduced fuel consumption and reduced emissions, yet they still allow the driver to rely on the existing fuel station infrastructure.. 2.2.2 PHEV (Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles) A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be. 治政大 combustion engine with the use of Like the HEV, the PHEV balances the use of a traditional 立 emphasis on the all-electric propulsion mode. As the name an electric motor, but has a greater recharged by connecting a plug to an electric power source.. ‧ 國. 學. suggests, PHEVs source electrical power by being plugged into a standard power grid. The car starts the day operating in an all-electric mode and only if the battery gets to a low. ‧. state-of-charge does it switch on the combustion engine. A PHEV could therefore operate solely on batteries for everyday commutes, but have the ability to switch to an HEV mode for. er. io. sit. y. Nat. longer rides.. n. 2.2.3 Full Electric Vehiclesa (FEV) or Battery Electric Vehicle v (BEV). i l C n U hengchi. The EV is the most environmentally friendly of the three battery-powered vehicles. Running purely on battery power, these vehicles produce no emissions during operation and completely eliminate the need for gasoline. The EnerDel battery systems for HEVs, PHEVs and EVs enable significantly longer driving ranges yet are compact and safe.. -6-.

(15) 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學 y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. Fig 2-1 Comparison of HEV, PHEV and EV. 2.3 HEV Market. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. The hybrid-electric vehicle did not become widely available until the release of the Toyota Prius in Japan in 1997, followed by the Honda Insight in 1999. While initially perceived as unnecessary due to the low cost of gasoline, worldwide increases in the price of petroleum caused many automakers to release hybrids in the late 2000s; they are now perceived as a core segment of the automotive market of the future. The overall HEV sales volumes have being continuously increased from year 2004 except for the year 2008 due to economic downturn. 500,000 HEV were sold in year 2007 and more than 80% of HEV were sold in USA and Japan markets. The HEV market showed the 50% of annual growth from year 2004 to year 2007.. -7-.

(16) 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. FCST: Forecast, ROW: Rest of World Fig 2-2 Trends in the Volume of the HEV Market. Even though the auto sales as a whole are slumping in 2008 and 2009, as Figure 2-2 shows,. ‧. the proportion of HEV sales within all autos sold remains steady and continuously increasing.. y. sit. io. n. al. er. 2008. Nat. The proportion of HEVs sales in USA auto market was increased from 1% in 2005 to 2.5% in. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Fig 2-3 Movements in the proportion of HEVs within US auto Sales -8-.

(17) 3. External Conditions of EV Market.. 3.1 Depletion of Oil and Increasing of Oil Price Peak oil as a proper noun, or "Hubbert's peak" applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history: the peak of the entire planet's oil production. After Peak Oil, according to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the rate of oil production on Earth would enter a terminal decline.. 政治大 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would 立 On the basis of his theory, in a paper he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in. peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970. Hubbert further predicted a. ‧ 國. 學. worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12. ‧. gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview Hubbert added that the. sit. y. Nat. actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the. io. n. al. er. peak for perhaps 10 years.. Ch. i Un. v. The concern for the depletion of oil and increasing oil price will make a positive impact to the growth of electric vehicle markets.. engchi. According to the Hubbert Peak Theory, the production rate of a limited resource (Oil) will follow roughly symmetrical bell-shaped and Peak oil passed in year 2005, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up. This means that if 2005 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2030 will be the same as it was in 1980. Consequently, oil shortage will occur and the price will skyrocket in 2030 due to increasing population and more industrialization than 1980 and oil dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.. -9-.

(18) 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Fig 3-1 World Oil Production 1900-2080 by Peak Oil Theory. ‧. Oil price has undergone a significant increase since year 2001 and reached to peak in July. Nat. sit. y. 2008. Due to the global financial crisis, the oil prices fell to US$30 a barrel on Dec 2008 and. io. n. al. er. then recovered to around US$ 75 Dec 2009.. Ch. engchi. - 10 -. i Un. v.

(19) 政治大. 立. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Fig 3-2 Crude Oil : WTI Monthly Price for 15 years (US$ per barrel). sit. y. Nat. 3.2 Regulations for the environmental protection. The environmental protection policy of many countries can accelerate the eco-friendly. io. n. al. er. automobiles. Now many nations, states and corporations are trying to slow global warming with using the mitigation activities.. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. After the negotiation of Kyoto Protocol which is the world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in 1997, many countries such as USA and EU have been controlled the Emissions Standards. Emissions Standards are requirements that set specific limits to the amount of pollutants that can be released into the environment. Standards generally regulate the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides, particulate matter (PM) or soot, carbon monoxide (CO), or volatile hydrocarbons (see carbon dioxide equivalent). In the United States, emissions standards are managed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The state of California has special dispensation to promulgate more stringent vehicle emissions standards, and other states may choose to follow either the national or California standards. - 11 -.

(20) California Air Resources Board set the California's emissions standards that major automakers must meet if they wish to sell into that market. In addition, several other U.S. states also choose to follow the California’s standards, so their rulemaking has broader implications within the U.S. Federal (National) "Tier 1" regulations went into effect starting in 1994, and "Tier 2" standards are being phased in from 2004 to 2009. On May 19, 2009 news reports indicate that the Federal EPA will largely adopt California's standards on greenhouse gas emissions. USA will make a liability to maintain the ratio of Zero Emission Vehicles to 12% out of overall automobiles sales in USA market from year 2012.. 政治大. The European Union has its own set of emissions standards that all new vehicles must meet. Currently, standards are set for all road vehicles, trains, barges and 'non road mobile. 立. machinery'. In late 2005, the European Commission started working on a proposal for a new. ‧ 國. 學. law to limit CO2 emissions from cars. The European Commission has received support of the European Parliament for its proposal to promote a broad market introduction of clean and. ‧. energy efficient vehicles through public procurement. The EU is to introduce Euro 4 effective January 1, 2008, Euro 5 effective January 1, 2010 and Euro 6 effective January 1, 2014. EU. y. Nat. 3.3 Economical and Political a Environments.. er. io. sit. will limit the amount of CO2 emission under 130g/km from year 2012.. n. iv l C n 3.3.1 The US DOE’s ATVMLP h e n g c h i U. Since the beginning of the Obama administration, the “Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program” (ATVMLP) has been put into practice, and an enormous low-interest loan facility totaling US$25 billion has been set up, prompting a very large number of applications from companies involved with LIB batteries and PHEV/BEVs. The ATVMLP (Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program) is intended to promote the manufacture of environment-friendly vehicles to improve fuel economy by 25% from the 2005 level, and to create related jobs. By June 23rd, 2009, the first three loan recipients had already been chosen and announced. The recipients, Ford, Nissan North America, and Tesla Motors, received US$5.9 billion, US$1.6 billion and US$465 million, respectively. Ford will mainly apply the money to - 12 -.

(21) improvements to 11 factories which will produce 13 models of low fuel consumption cars, but the other two loan decisions will have a great impact on automotive LIB.. 3.3.2 The Obama administration’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Within the economic stimulus package worth a total of US$787 billion that was passed by congress and signed into law by President Obama on February 17th, 2009, US$61.3 billion is budgeted for energy-related expenditure. Within that limit, US$2 billion is planned to provide funding for domestic battery manufacturing. NAATBatt (The National Alliance for Advanced Transportation Batteries) has applied to. 治政大 products for the US military, established a battery-manufacturing joint venture with Coda 立 Automotive.. build a LIB plant for US$600 million and Yardney Technical Products, a manufacturer of LIB. ‧ 國. 學. 3.3.3 Tax credits for LIB factory investment in the US state of Michigan. ‧. The Economic Growth Authority Board of Michigan state announced in April 2009 that it would permit tax credits worth US$543.5 million to four companies investing a total of. y. Nat. sit. US$1.7 billion in LIB factories.. er. io. The four companies such as JCS (Johnson Controls-Saft Advanced Power Solutions LLC),. al. n. iv n C US$200 million to US$700 million for manufacturing factory in Michigan, USA. h eLIB ngchi U. KD Advanced Battery Group LLC, A123systems and LGC/Compact Power decided to invest. - 13 -.

(22) 4 Li-ion Battery for EV The future of battery electric vehicles depends primarily upon the cost and availability of batteries with high energy densities, power density, short charge time and long life. By the year 2020, an estimated 30% of the cars driving on the road will be battery, electric or plug-in hybrid. Lithium batteries are expected to be mainly used for EV. Compared to the nickel-hydrogen type batteries which are used in HEV cars like the Toyota Prius, Lithium ion batteries have twice the amount of energy given the same weight which. 政治大 Long life is also a big merit of lithium ions. EV automobile guarantees more than twice the 立 life span since lithium ion batteries have no memory effect when repeating charge and. enables EV to guarantee longer mileage and have double the output for the same volume.. ‧ 國. 學. discharge. Due to this merit, lithium ion batteries are mainly used as the batteries for EV automobile.. ‧ sit. y. Nat. 4.1 The Characteristic of EV Batteries. 4.1.1 EV batteries must have a large output. io. n. al. er. The motor of EV automobile runs in start, hill driving and high-speed driving. At this moment. i Un. v. lithium batteries should be able to supply energy instantly to the motor, which means the. Ch. engchi. battery must output 50 times larger energy than a laptop computer.. 4.1.2 EV batteries must have a long life span For battery use without change while using EV automobile, a long life span (15 years of use period, 25,000km of mileage and 5000 times of cycle life) is necessary.. 4.1.3 EV batteries must have great safety Since batteries that with enough of a large output to drive a car is necessary, much electric current is added during the charge. As a result, great safety is necessary. In addition, fire by the impacts of car accidents must be prevented.. - 14 -.

(23) 4.2 Structure of EV Li-Ion Battery. As shown in the Fig 4-1, Li-ion cells, battery ECU (Electric Control Unit), EV ECU which controls the whole EV automobile and cooling system are major components for the EV batteries.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Fig 4-1 Structure of Li-ion Battery for EV. - 15 -.

(24) 4.3 Trends in the LIB-powered Vehicle Market 2008 was a year which saw a flurry of announcements of medium-term investment plans and schedules for automotive use of LIB batteries. Currently there is little need for LIB batteries in HEVs (hybrid electric vehicles). Compared to NiMH, they are lighter, more compact, and will be cheaper in the future, but the motivation to choose LIB is not as strong as it is in BEV and PHEV vehicles, which cannot be commercially and technically developed without LIB batteries. Also, from the LIB supplier side, BEVs and PHEVs are clearly more attractive in terms of business scale, as Fig 4-1 illustrates.. 治政 2% (=2 million a year), PHEV will be 6% and HEV will大 be 12%. 立. It is assumed that within 100 million units of annual vehicle production in 202x, BEV will be. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. - 16 -. i Un. v.

(25) 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Note) SC/WF: Solar Cell/Wind Farm.. ‧. Fig 4-1 Comparison of Potential Demand for Automotive LIB Batteries in 202x. sit. y. Nat. al. n. future of the market.. er. io. Figure 4-2 is the outlook for sales of HEV/PHEV/BEVs, which is the base for forecasting the. Ch. i Un. v. In CY09, the New Prius and New Insight are expected to sell 500,000 and 200,000 units a. engchi. year, respectively, so the HEV market, which uses almost entirely NiMH batteries, will surpass one million vehicles for the first time. NiMH-equipped HEVs will grow rapidly to reach a peak of approximately 2 million cars in CY11-12. Later, with the planned shift of the Prius to LIB, and Honda’s transition to LIB with the startup of Blue Energy, NiMH will be superseded by LIB.. - 17 -.

(26) 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學 ‧. Fig 4-2 Forecast for Sales for EVs by Main Brand. sit. y. Nat. But these HEV markets are not important for the LIB industry. The real targets for the LIB. io. er. industry are BEV and PHEV vehicles. In Fig 4-3, the latest forecast for CY2018 is 4.85 million HEVs (with 3.81 million using LIB), 780,000 PHEVs and 1.67 million BEVs. Many. n. al. Ch. i Un. v. automobile companies such as GM, Nissan Renault, Toyota and Tata Motor (India). engchi. announced the usage of LIB for their future PHEVs and BEVs.. - 18 -.

(27) 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. Fig 4-3 Demand Outlook for Automotive LIB. ‧ y. sit. Nat. 4.4 Supply Relationships for Automotive Batteries.. Figure 4-4 shows the joint venture of automakers and LIB suppliers in Japan. All the Japanese. io. n. al. er. automakers have made their choices of LIB sources. Sanyo have been taken over by the. i Un. v. Panasonic Group, which is likely to distance them from Honda.. Ch. engchi. - 19 -.

(28) 立. 政治大. Fig 4-4 Joint Venture of Automakers and LIB suppliers in Japan. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Figure 4-5 summarizes the procurement relationships between major automakers and NiMH and LIB suppliers in world wide.. y. Nat. sit. A123system are attracting close attention for their forceful progress in this area. GE has raised. er. io. their stake in the company, and is strengthening their business as a pack supplier using A123. al. n. iv n C GE and A123 has also become thehmain supplier forU e n g c h i the Chrysler ENVI Project. They also have possibilities for winning business with a current total of 19 vehicle models, including. cells. GE have also invested in Th!nk, and will be responsible for part of their LIB supplies.. Betterplace and mid-grade sedans from BMW and Mercedes. LGChem, Korea’s strong Li-ion battery manufacturer became the sole vender for GM and Hyundai Motors.. - 20 -.

(29) 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Fig 4-5 Supply Relationships for Automotive NiMH and LIB companies.. - 21 -.

(30) 5. How to Succeed in the EV Battery Business?. How to succeed in the emerging Li-ion battery market for Evs? What kind of preparation and response are necessary to be the winner in fast growing Li-ion battery for EV market? Based on the previous various studies about LIB, EV and external conditions, below 4 things should be prepared in advance. - Technology Innovation - Cost Reduction and Long-Term Sourcing Plan - Strategic Alliances for Win-Win - Developing New Business Model.. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. 5.1 Technology Innovation.. The first priority to win the battery business in EV market is to achieve the technology. ‧. innovation. The most important technical factors for battery of EV are safety, high power and long life span based on the improvement in the related technology and localization of the raw. sit. y. Nat. material.. al. er. io. The nationwide efforts are being collected in Japan to achieve the technology innovation.. n. About 20 organizations and companies joined the next generation battery development project. Ch. i Un. v. ‘All-Japan System’ in Japan. They are trying to make triple longer driving distance than. engchi. current by year 2020 and the government will use total 210billion Japan dollar for next 7 years. 5 Japanese automobile companies, 7 battery manufacturer and 10 University joined this union.. 5.1.1 Safety The safety concern of Li-Ion battery is one of the big reasons for delaying of mass production of EV which adopted the LIB. The Li-ion battery has been used for mobile devices such as laptop computer and mobile phones but experienced several safety issues such as heating and explosion. Originally Li-ion battery is very weak for impact and high temperature. Even though these weakness was not so important in mobile devices but it is very important in EV because cars can receive the big impact in case of small car collision and can be exposed to very high temperature during the summer. - 22 -.

(31) To prevent the safety issue, the LIB manufacturers have to reinforce the safety features of the Li-ion battery for EV. The application of ceramic coated separator to improve the mechanical strength and application of Phosphate contained cathode materials which is very stable in high temperature will be very helpful for more safe Li-ion battery. In the other hand, the co-development of BMS (Battery Management System) between LIB manufacturer and automobile companies will be also good choice.. 5.1.2 High Power HEV and Plug-in HEV have their own internal combustion engine and the extra energy during driving could be restored in the battery which does the role of supportive supplying. 治政大 more important than the capacity engine type vehicles. The high power of battery is much 立 which is related the battery consumption time in HEV and PHEV. power. The combined power of both engine and battery should be superior to the conventional. ‧ 國. 學. Different from the battery of HEV and PHEV, the capacity is also important in BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle, Full EV) because the BEV only apply the battery as a power source.. ‧. 5.1.3 Long Life Span. Besides the cost reduction and safety improvements, several problems still need to be. sit. y. Nat. solved.. al. er. io. To minimize the exchange cost for the battery, the life span of Li-ion battery is very important.. v. n. For the mobile application devices, 2 or 3 years of life span guarantee were enough but more. Ch. i Un. than 10years of life span for EV battery is necessary because average possession period for. engchi. cars were 9years in USA and 8years in France. Which means that the users buy the EV can use the vehicle around 10 years so the life span of Li-ion battery for EV is very important. Frequent exchange of battery in EV will be a big burden to user because the exchange cost of NiMH battery need around US$8,000.. 5.2 Cost Reduction and Long Term Sourcing Plan 5.2.1 Cost Reduction Toyota tried to apply the Li-Ion battery to their Prius HEV but the mass-production data was delayed 2 years from year 2007 to year 2009 because they didn’t solve cost, safety and other problem of Li-Ion battery for EV. First of all the cost of LIB for EV is still expensive than NiMH (nickel-metal hydride). The - 23 -.

(32) price of Toyota Camry HV which adopted the NiMH battery is US$ 25,350 which is US$4,000 expensive than conventional Camry model. But if the Li-ion battery is adopted, the battery cost will be tripled than Ni-MH battery. Battery occupies 15% of total manufacturing cost of automobiles. If automobile company couldn’t reduce the cost of battery, they have to increase the sales price of cars. So the Li-ion battery suppliers have to make continuous efforts to decrease the cost of Li-ion battery for EVs. Applying the low cost active materials such as Mn, Fe than current widely used expensive Cobalt can be a necessary effort for LIB manufacturers.. 5.2.2 Long-term Sourcing Plan for Lithium. 治政大 will be increased continuously sourcing of Lithium in advance. The demand for the Lithium and the securing of Lithium立 sourcing will be the biggest task to solve. The China took the Lithium is basic raw material for the Li-ion battery so, it is very important to secure the. ‧ 國. 學. very positive foreign policy for Bolivia because Bolivia has the 50% share of overall buried Lithium amounts in the world.. ‧ y. Nat. 5.3 Strategic Alliance for Win-Win. sit. The 3rd important thing for the Li-Ion battery manufacturer is to secure the confirmed. er. io. customer through the strategic alliance with major automobile companies.. 5.3.1 Purpose of Alliancesa. n. iv l C n manufacturers do h notebuild the cooperative ngchi U. If the battery. relationship with automobile. companies, it is very difficult to survive in very competitive market and will die out. The Toshiba which succeed in the commercialization of Li-ion battery for mobile devices next to Sony gave up the business in 2004 because they didn’t have the secure customer. Providing the battery for more than 2 major automobile companies and achieving the scale of economy based the good product quality and cost leadership are necessary. The automobile companies will need more than one battery supplier to hedge the risk. For example, Panasonic merged the Sanyo and invested huge amounts of moneys for the battery of EV market. Automobile companies such as Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi made the joint venture with battery companies for stable battery supply for their EVs. LGChem became the battery supplying partner for the GM Volts. To build the battery manufacturing site very close to automobile companies will be a good - 24 -.

(33) strategy to be became long-term battery supplying partner for them. LG Chem decided to build the Li-ion battery factory in USA to support the GM.. 5.3.2 Types of Cooperation – JV and Alliances Various companies joined the battery business for EV from different business fields such as electronics, automobile, chemical and energy. Joint venture and strategic alliances can be win-win strategy for both automobiles company and battery manufacturer. The automobile companies can have the stable supplying partner of battery and battery companies can have fixed customers. Japan companies prefer the Joint venture and strategic alliances are more common in USA. The Ford is developing the battery. 政治大. for HEV which will be launched to sell in 2012 with Johnson Controls and Saft together (JCS).. 立. 學. ‧ 國. Some automobile components companies cooperate with battery companies. The world largest car components company, Bosch, entered the joint venture with Samsung SDI which is world 2nd largest Li-ion battery manufacturer.. y. ‧. Nat. 5.4 Developing of New Business Model.. sit. The last important thing to be considered was the new business model related to the battery. er. io. for EVs. The one of the worst disadvantage of EVs is that it needs long charging for the. al. n. iv n C USA Company, Better Place, is preparing exchange business which is very similar h e ntheg battery chi U. batteries. The ‘battery exchange system’ needs to be reviewed to solve this problem. One of. concept with mobile battery exchange. Automobile companies can sell the car without the battery to consumers and the battery exchange companies provide the batteries to customers and charge the usage fee to consumer based on the mileage. If the consumer can save US$1,500 with using the EVs, they can pay that amount as a cost of battery exchange fee Israel, Denmark and Japan are preparing the networking of battery changing station and battery exchange station. When the Smart Grid became common in the future, the application of battery for EV will be expanded. The expensive battery of EV can be recycled for home application as EPS (Emergency Power Supply) or accumulation of electricity for another use.. /End/. - 25 -.

(34) 6. Reference. 【1】Taeyun Lim, Jaeyun Kim, (2009). SERI. Emerging Secondary Battery Market for Automobiles. 1-11 【2】Hideo Takeshita, (2008). IIT, LIB-related Study Program 08-09, 24-43 【3】Hideo Takeshita, (2009). IIT, LIB-related Study Program 9-10, II-1 – II-26\. 政治大. 【4】JaeHoon Yun, (2009). Hyundai Investment, It’s time to focus on the green cars. 1-4. 立. 【5】Carlos Gomes, (2009). Scotia Capital, Global Auto Report, 1-2. ‧ 國. 學. 【6】Christina Lampe, (2009).Boston Power, Batteries In A Green Economy, 1-22. ‧. 【7】Ines Seidel, (2009), Finpro. Electric Cars - Global Trends, 1-18. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. - 26 -. i Un. v.

(35) 7. Web Information. 【1】http://www. lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ Peak Oil, Matt Savinar, Life After the Oil Crash 【2】http://www. gm-volt.com Klein. GM-VOLT Chevy Volt Electric Car Site. 政治大. 【3】http://www. ev-li-ionbatteryforum.com. 立. EV Li-Ion Battery forum. 學. ‧ 國. Electric vehicle. 【4】http://electronics.howstuffworks.com. ‧. How Lithium-ion Batteries Work 【5】http://www.hybridcars.com/. y. Nat. 【6】http://www. wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_standard. n. al. Ch. Emission standard - Wikipedia, 【7】http://www. convert-2-ev.com. engchi. Chevy Volt Battery Crash 【8】http://www.byd.com BYD Auto, Build Your Dreams 【9】http://www.WSJ.com Auto Sales - Markets Data Center. - 27 -. er. io. sit. New Hybrid Reviews, News & Hybrid Mileage (MPG) Info Hybrid Cars. i Un. v.

(36)