日本與中共貿易發展近況之分析

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(31) Japan-Mainland China Trade Ties: Recent Developments Bo-chih Chen Abstract After providing a review of the trade developments between Japan and mainland China since 1994, this papers analyzes the reasons for the changes in Japan-mainland China trade ties, discusses existing problems, and explores future prospects. The conclusions of this paper are: (1) Japan-mainland China trade relations, which developed rapidly in the early 1990s, showed signs of slowing down in 1996. The main reasons for this include the continued stagnancy of Japan's economy, the decline of Japan's direct investment in mainland China, the nontariff barriers existing in Japan, and languid domestic demands within mainland China. (2) Over the past two years, Japan has become mainland China's largest trade partner, largest importer of Chinese goods and second-largest exporter to China while mainland China has become Japan's second-largest trade partner, second-largest importer of Japanese goods, and third-largest exporter to Japan. (3) According to Japanese statistics, from 1988 to the first half of 1999, Japan had trade deficits with mainland China every year, with the amount increasing since 1995. According to Beijing's statistics, however, mainland China has always been the side facing trade deficits except in the years of 1990 and 1996-98. The differences are caused by the different statistical methods and periods adopted by the two sides. (4) When political tensions arise between them, their economic and trade ties are often affected. Such tensions, however, have so far all been resolved by the joint efforts of the governments and enterprises of both sides. (5) In order to further develop bilateral economic and trade ties, Beijing must continue to promote the readjustment of industrial structure, deepen the market-oriented economic restructuring, and implement more measures for encouraging imports and exports, while Tokyo must continue to expand market opening, boost technology transfers, and increase direct investment in mainland China..

(32) On the whole, the bilateral trade volume between Japan and mainland China in 1999 is expected to be larger than the 1998 figure, exceeding U S $60 billion again. As both sides are witnessing economic resurgence, their bilateral trade will grow further in 2000.. Keywords : Japan-mainland China trade; Jiang Zemin's visit to Japan; Keizo Obuchi's visit to mainland China; peaceful and friendly relations; mutual benefit and reciprocity.

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