行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告書
兩岸經濟互賴和平論第一期研究成果報告
A Theory of Cross-Strait Economic Interdependent Peace, Part I
執行期限：2003 年 8 月 1 日至 2004 年 9 月 30 日
主持人：童振源
國立政治大學 國際關係研究中心 助理研究員
計畫參與人員：
姚思敏 國立政治大學 東亞研究所碩士班研究生
林雅鈴 國立政治大學 東亞研究所碩士班研究生
中文摘要 由於兩岸仍然處於極端對抗的政治局勢中，緊密的經貿往來便引發台灣內部很多 政治與安全的爭論。基本上，這些爭論大約可以分為六類：國防安全、經濟制裁、 經濟誘惑、經濟戰爭、國家認同轉變、與經濟互賴和平。本研究針對最後一類辯 論---「到底兩岸經濟交流與互賴是否有助於兩岸關係的穩定與兩岸問題的和平解 決？」提出廣泛的實證分析，進而建構「兩岸經濟互賴和平論」。 關鍵字：經濟互賴和平、兩岸經濟交流、國家安全、經濟制裁、經濟誘惑、經濟 戰爭、國家認同、自由主義、李登輝總統訪美事件、兩國論、一邊一國論。 AbstractAmid severe political confrontation, close cross-Strait economic exchange stirs many political and security debates in Taiwan. Generally speaking, these debates can be divided into six categories: defensive security, economic sanctions, economic inducements, economic war, national identity transformation, and economic interdependent peace. Focusing on the last category of debates, this project will provide extensively empirical study on the subject whether cross-Strait economic exchange will facilitate the stabilization of cross-Strait relations and the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues. At the end, this project intends to construct a theory of cross-Strait economic interdependent peace.
Keywords: Economic interdependent peace, cross-Strait economic exchange,
national security, economic sanctions, economic inducements, economic war, national identity, liberalism, the incident of President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the USA,
two-state theory, one-country-on-one-side theory.
壹、前言
本研究案為三年的研究計畫，執行期間為 2003 年 8 月至 2006 年 7 月。本年 度為第一年研究計畫，執行期間為 2003 年 8 月至 2004 年 9 月。本研究案已經取 得國科會繼續支持第二年的研究經費。2004 年年底將會繼續申請國科會贊助完 成全部的三年期計畫，並將研究心得撰寫成一本專書。貳、工作進度
一、 文獻收集：本研究持續蒐集十二類相關文獻，包括中英文報章雜誌、論 文、專書、及網路資料： 1、 兩岸經濟關係的發展； 2、 兩岸與全球經濟分工的情勢； 3、 兩岸與全球經濟互賴的情勢； 4、 三次台海緊張對於兩岸經濟發展的影響； 5、 國際強權在三次台海緊張中的態度與政策； 6、 台商與台商協會在三次台海緊張中的角色； 7、 外商與外商協會在三次台海緊張中的角色； 8、 大陸地方政府在三次台海緊張中的角色； 9、 大陸領導人對於兩岸經貿關係的認知與政策，包括合作促進經濟發 展、經濟發展降低使用武力的動機、促進統一的期待降低使用武力的 動機； 10、 台商作為兩岸溝通橋樑的作用； 11、 兩岸經貿議題作為兩岸互動的機制。 12、 以兩岸經濟交流名義、透過各種產業公會或民間團體，大陸官員與台 灣官員接觸的情形。 二、 資料庫建檔： 1、完成 1979-1994 年的「大陸對台灣的態度與政策」資料建檔與統計。 三、 田野調查：1、 訪談台灣產業公會幹部（2 人）、台灣退休大陸政策決策官員（2 人） 2、 計畫主持人前往中國廣東省珠江三角洲進行田野調查，並整理完成訪 談資料。計畫主持人訪問深圳、東莞、及廣州，分別訪談大陸的台商 與台資企業協會幹部（17 人）、大陸學者（1 人）、大陸現任或退休對 台與經貿系統官員（3 人）。 四、 計畫主持人完成十篇論文，包括專書章節、學術性雜誌、及會議論文， 羅列在下面的研究成果當中。
參、研究成果
1、 童振源，2003 年 7 月，「兩岸經濟整合與台灣的國家安全顧慮」，《遠景基 金會季刊》，第 4 卷，第 3 期（2003 年 7 月），頁 41-58。2、 Chen-yuan Tung, “Cross-Strait Economic Relations: China’s Leverage and Taiwan’s Vulnerability,” Issues & Studies, vol. 39, no. 3 (September 2003), pp. 137-175.【SSCI】
3、 Chen-yuan Tung, “The Assessment of China’s Taiwan Policy of the Third Generation and Its Prospect,” Asian Survey, forthcoming.【SSCI】
4、 Chen-yuan Tung, November 2003, “The Assessment of China’s Taiwan Policy of the Third Generation and Its Prospect,” presented at the International Conference on Generational Change and China’s Future, sponsored by the Graduate Institute of Mainland China Studies, National Sun Yat-sen University, November 21-22, 2003, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
5、 Chen-yuan Tung, April 2004, “Cross-Strait Relations after Taiwan’s 2004 Presidential Election,” presented at the conference of “Taiwan at the Cross Road?: Analyzing the Presidential Election,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, April 6, 2004.
6、 Chen-yuan Tung, May 2004, “Cross-Strait Relations after Taiwan’s 2004 Presidential Election,” presented at the 33rd Sino-American Conference on Contemporary China, Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, May 27-28, 2004.
7、 Chen-yuan Tung, June 2004, “Cross-Strait Relations after Taiwan’s 2004 Presidential Election,” presented at the conference of Taiwan’s Domestic, International and Cross-Strait Politics in Presidential Chen Shui-bian’s Second Term, London School of Economics and Political Science, June 12, 2004. 8、 Chen-yuan Tung, July 2004, “Cross-Strait Relations after Taiwan’s 2004
Democratization and Regional Security, sponsored by the Seoul Forum for International Affairs and Institute of International Relations, National Chengchi University, Seoul Hilton Hotel, July 2-3, 2004.
9、 Chen-yuan Tung, “Cross-Strait Relations after Taiwan’s 2004 Presidential Election,” presented at the Japanese Association for Taiwan Studies, Tokyo, August 4, 2004.
10、 Chen-yuan Tung, 2004, “Trade Relations Between Taiwan and China,” and “Financial Relations Between Taiwan and China,” in Jing Luo (ed.),
Encyclopedia of Contemporary Chinese Civilization: 1949-Present (Westport,
CT: Greenwood Publishing Co., 2004), forthcoming.
肆、計畫成果自評
本計畫在目前仍在大量蒐集資料、進行文獻調查、與進行訪談階段，預計要 到第三年才會開始進行全面性的理論建構階段。預計第二年計畫期間，本計畫將 繼續收集相關資料、建構 1995-2002 年的「大陸對台灣的態度與政策」資料建檔 與統計、及進行台灣與中國長江洲的大量田野調查。 由於國科會贊助本計畫的經費有限，以致於無法聘請專任研究助理協助搜尋 資料，及前往中國進行田野調查時感到經費相當拮据。不過，計畫主持人都盡量 克服，並已經取得相當顯著的研究成果。本計畫執行至今一年，已經在國內外發 表、刊載如上述所陳列的十篇論文。相信在未來兩年的研究應該可以取得更為樂 觀的成績。伍、參考文獻
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