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Using Statistical Process Control to Control and Monitor Project Performance 、曾清枝

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Using Statistical Process Control to Control and Monitor Project Performance

、曾清枝

E-mail: 9708322@mail.dyu.edu.tw

ABSTRACT

Project management is applied in new product development and engineering indus-tries widely. How to manage and monitor the project effectively in progress which is the project manager concerns about all the time. The earned value management (EVM) is widely used in the estimation of project performance and the monitoring system. While the schedule Performance index (SPI) can not reflect the real circumstance in the later phase of execution of the project. So we use SPI(t) to improve the deficiency

above-mentioned. To master and monitor the performance during the execution phase of the project, we use statistical process control (SPC) and control charts to monitor the data of schedule progress to improve the quality of project. We use several cases to cal-culate the project performance and apply SPC to compare the difference between SPI and SPI(t). And discuss which kind of control charts is the most adaptive in monitoring the performance of project. It is helpful to administer a perestroika in monitoring an managing project performance for project managers.

Keywords : earned value management, earned schedule, SPC, SPI, control charts Table of Contents

中文摘要 ..................... iii 英文摘要 .....................

iv 誌謝辭  ..................... v 內容目錄 ....................

. vi 表目錄  ..................... viii 圖目錄  ..................

... ix 第一章  緒論................... 1   第一節  研究背景...........

.... 1   第二節  研究動機............... 2   第三節  研究目的..........

..... 2   第四節  研究流程............... 2 第二章  文獻探討...........

...... 4   第一節  專案與專案管理的定義......... 4   第二節  實獲值分析.......

....... 5   第三節  實獲時程分析(earned schedule, ES)..... 13   第四節  統計製程管制(SPC).

.......... 16 第三章  研究方法................. 29   第一節  研究架構...

............ 29   第二節  資料之收集與轉換........... 30 第四章  研究運用與分析

.............. 32   第一節  研究案例介紹............. 32   第二節  使用統 計程序控制(SPC)比較Earned Value與 Earned Schedule............. 36   第三節  運用Tukey管制圖監 控專案績效..... 48 第五章  研究結論與建議.............. 55   第一節  研究結果...

............ 55   第二節  研究建議與研究限制.......... 57 參考文獻  ......

.............. 58 表 2- 1 實獲?管理系統發展沿革............ 6 表 2- 2 各參數定義...

............... 7 表 2- 3 成本績效分析指標............... 8 表 2- 4 各參數定義..

................ 16 表 2- 5 非隨機變化的判圖法.............. 17 表 2- 6 品質參數的 系統狀況分類............ 20 表 2- 7 管制圖分類.................. 25 表 3- 1 K-S檢 定表.................. 31 表 4- 1 專案ㄧ資料.................. 32 表 4- 2 專 案二資料.................. 33 表 4- 3 專案三資料.................. 34 表 4- 4 專案四資料.................. 34 表 4- 5 專案五資料.................. 35 表 4- 6 Kolmogorov-Smirnov常態檢定SPI值....... 37 表 4- 7 Kolmogorov-Smirnov常態檢定SPI(t)值......

37 表 4- 8 專案一排序.................. 48 圖 1- 1 研究流程圖................

.. 3 圖 2- 1 實獲值分析示意圖............... 10 圖 2- 2 第一種情境實獲值圖..........

.... 11 圖 2- 3 第二種情境實獲值圖.............. 11 圖 2- 4 第三種情境實獲值圖........

...... 12 圖 2- 5 第四種情境實獲值圖.............. 12 圖 2- 6 SV與SV(t)比較........

........ 14 圖 2- 7 非隨機變化的判圖法.............. 18 圖 2- 8 系統存有變異的原因....

.......... 19 圖 2- 9 SPC各項技術整合應用展示圖.......... 22 圖 2- 10 統計管制圖的結構..

............. 25 圖 2- 11 Tukey管制圖................. 27 圖 3- 1 本研究之研究架構

............... 29 圖 4- 1 專案一「Revamp check in」SPI管制圖..... 38 圖 4- 2 專案一「Revamp check in」SPI(t)管制圖.... 38 圖 4- 3 專案一「Revamp check in」SCI(t)管制圖.... 39 圖 4- 4 專案二「Link lines

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」SPI管制圖....... 40 圖 4- 5 專案二「Link lines」SPI(t)管制圖...... 40 圖 4- 6 專案二「Link lines」SCI(t) 管制圖...... 41 圖 4- 7 專案三「Transfer platform」SPI管制圖.... 42 圖 4- 8 專案三「Transfer platform」SPI(t) 管制圖... 42 圖 4- 9 專案三「Transfer platform」SCI(t)管制圖... 43 圖 4-10 專案四SPI管制圖.........

...... 44 圖 4-11 專案四ln SPI(t)管制圖............ 44 圖 4-12 專案四SCI(t)管制圖........

...... 45 圖 4-13 專案五SPI管制圖............... 46 圖 4-14 專案五SPI(t)管制圖......

........ 46 圖 4-15 專案五SCI(t)管制圖.............. 47 圖 4-16 專案ㄧTukey管制圖....

.......... 49 圖 4-17 專案ㄧTukey管制圖.............. 49 圖 4-18 專案二Tukey管制圖..

............ 50 圖 4-19 專案二Tukey管制圖.............. 50 圖 4-20 專案三Tukey管制圖

.............. 51 圖 4-21 專案三Tukey管制圖.............. 51 圖 4-22 專案四Tukey管 制圖.............. 52 圖 4-23 專案四Tukey管制圖.............. 52 圖 4-24 專案 五Tukey管制圖.............. 53 圖 4-25 專案五Tukey管制圖.............. 53 圖 5- 1 專案一SPI管制圖............... 55 圖 5- 2 專案一SPI(t)管制圖.............. 55 圖 5- 3 專案一SCI(t)管制圖.............. 56

REFERENCES

一、中文部份 周祥東(2002),實獲值管理:基礎篇,周博士專欄[線上資料],來源: http://www.psig.com.tw/intelligence/article13.htm 許光 華(2002),專案成本管理,台北:中華專案管理學會,1-45。 曾清枝(2001),建立本院研發計畫管理資訊系統之研究,國防部中山科學研 究院業務研究發展九十年度研究報告,桃園:中山科學研究院。 陳建勝(2007),統計學:商業與管理的應用(再版),台北:智勝出版社。 陳柏 年(2004),統計製程管制於製程異常偵測之應用[線上資料],來源: http://www.1wen.com.cn/doc/tongji-guanzhi/ [2004,May 20]。 葉順 興(2002),SPC於具有多種變異來源之製程的應用,國立中央大學管理學院高階主管企管研究所未出版之碩士論文。 鄭春生(1996),品質 管理,台北:育有圖書有限公司。 賴瀚棠,梁高榮(2003),利用統計製程管制技術監測花會交易資訊,發表於2003資訊科技在農業之應用 研討會論文集,新竹:國立交通大學工業工程與管理學系。 潘曉寧(2003),台灣上市電子公司財務危機預警模式,朝陽科技大學財務金融 系研究所未出版之碩士論文。 二、英文部份 Alemi, F. (2004). Tukey’s control chart. Quality Management in Health Care, 29(5), 216-221.

Donald, J. (1994). Improve Schedule Forecasting via Earned Value. AACE Transactions, 1-9. Fleming, Q. W. & Koppelman, J. M. (1996b). The Earned Value Body of Knowledge. PM Network, 10(May), 11-15. Grant, E. W. & Leavenworth, R. S. (1998). Statistical Quality Control. NY:

McGraw Hill Company. Clifford, F. G. & Larson, E. W. (2006). Earned Value Project Man-agement(3th Ed), Project Management: The Managerial Process. NY: McGraw Hill Company. Henderson, K. (2003). Earned schedule: A breakthrough extension to earned value theory? A retrospective analysis of real project data. The Measurable News, 21. Kim, Y. W. & Ballard, G. (2002). Earned Value Method and Customer Earned Value. Journal of Construction Research, 3(1), 55-66. Kim, E. H., Wells, W. G., & Duffey, M. R. (2003). A model for effec-tive implementation of Earned Value Management methodology. International Journal of Project Management, 21, 375-382. Lipke, W. (2002).

Statistical Process Control of Project Performance. The Measurable News, June, 25-28. Lipke, W. (2004). Connecting earned value to the schedule.

The Measurable News, Jan, 6-16. Lipke, W. (2006). Earned Schedule Leads to Improved Forecasting. Proceedings of the PROMAC conference, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma. Leu et al. (2006). Improving Traditional Earned Value Management by Incorporating Statistical Process Charts. International Sympo-sium on Automation and Robotics in Construction(ISARC), 275-280. Meredith, J. R. & Mantel, S. I. (1989). Project Management. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Spinner, M. P. (1992). Elements of Project Management: Plan, Sched-ule, Control(2nd ed). London:

Prentic-Hall, Inc. Mantel, S. J., Meredith, J. R., Shafer, S. M., & Sutton, M. M. (2001). Project Management in Practice. NY: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Nassar, K. M., Gunnarsson, H. G., & Hegab, M. Y. (2005). Using Weibull Analysis for Evaluation of Cost. Journal of Construc-tion Engineering and Management, 1257-1262. Nelson, L. (1984). The Shewhart Control Chart-Test for Specia Causes. Journal of Quality

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(1995). True Project Management is Earned Value Based Cost Management. Project Management Consultant, Mantix Systems Ltd, 8-9.

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International Journal of Project Management, 24, 289-302.

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