Research Express@NCKU - Articles Digest
Research Express@NCKU Volume 26 Issue 10 - July 4, 2014 [ http://research.ncku.edu.tw/re/articles/e/20140704/1.html ]
A Salinity Projection Model for Determining Impacts of Climate Change on River Ecosystems in Taiwan
Jian-Ping Suen1,* , Hung-Nien Lai1
1 Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung university [email protected]
Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 493, 124-131 (2013)
The purpose of this study is to determine the potential impacts of climate change on river ecosystems by simulating changes in salinity. A neural network salinity model was developed to project future salinity concentrations in the Puzih River, Taiwan, and was applied it to assess potential impacts on the river ecosystems. 1,400 hydrological
conditions from 7 GCMs are used to calculate the projected salinity probability distribution for two periods (2030 and 2090) of future scenarios. Figure 1 shows the simulation
results. In the short-term period (2030), the salinity gradient is similar to the current condition; however, for the long-term period (2090), the salinity gradient shifts much more. Although freshwater fish communities may possibly adapt by moving upstream, they would face increased competition stresses with other freshwater species.
Salinity increases may affect survival of some mangroves and wetland plants, especially in dry season. Riparian mangroves and wetland plants near the river mouth would face increased high stress due to the increased salinity concentrations. Additionally, withdrawal of tap water from the protected upstream area will require additional checks for water quality and salinity violations. This ANN model developed in this research allows a potential threat caused by salinity change to be analyzed as precautionary information for water resources and river ecosystem management.
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