promoting an international sustainable resource management

Current status and future trends for

promoting an international sustainable resource management

Dr. Stefan Bringezu

Member of the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management

Director

Material Flows and Resource Management

Wuppertal Institute Presentation

5th, 6th October 2009 Taipeh, Taiwan

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The presentation

Stefan Bringezu

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The presentation

What is the goal of sustainable resource consumption?

The 7 principles of sustainable resource management

1.  Secure adequate supply and efficient use of materials, energy and land resources as reliable biophysical basis for creation of wealth and well-being in societies and for future generations

2.  Maintain life-supporting functions and services of ecosystems

3.  Provide for the basic institutions of societies and their co- existence with nature

4.  Minimize risks for security and economic turmoil due to dependence on resources

5.  Contribute to a globally fair distribution of resource use and an adequate burden sharing

6.  Minimize problem shifting between environmental media, types of resources, economic sectors, regions, and generations

7.  Drive resource productivity (total material productivity) at a rate higher than GDP growth

Source: Bringezu and Bleischwitz (2009)

Stefan Bringezu

Three pillars of a sustainable resource use policy

Source : Stefan Bringezu

Goals (e.g. Dematerialisiation),

objectives (e.g. decoupling),

targets (e.g. Factor 4/10) - broad discussion

- indicators for orientation and monitoring

Incentive framework

- market based instruments (adjust subsidies, taxes etc.)

- planning (e.g. extraction licenses, construction standards)

- standards for sustainable cultivation (e.g. organic farming, FSC)

- no go zones for mining (e.g. national parks)

- no use materials (e.g. Hg, U)

Improved information - EU, national, regional, communities, firms, households

- institutional +

technological potentials for improvement

- good-practice examples - education and training

Objectives of the EU resource strategy

25 years GDP

resource use

env. impacts

reduction of resource specific impacts

increase of

resource productivity

eco-efficiency

⇒ How to effectively decouple resource use from economic growth?

⇒ Is it possible to decouple environmental impacts from resource use (at macro level)?

Stefan Bringezu

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A basic perspective

Stefan Bringezu

Processes
 Products
 Companies


Sectors
 Cities
 Regions
 Economies

Air

Soil Water

Spatial boundary

Functional boundary

Upstream flows

Downstrea m flows Imports

Systems perspective(s) on the metabolism

Exports

Specific environmental problems related to certain

impacts per unit of flow of

Substances e.g.

Cd, Cl, Pb, Zn, Hg, N, P, C, CO2,

CFC

Materials e.g.

wooden products, energy carriers, excavation, biomass, plastics

Products e.g.

diapers, batteries, cars

within certain

firms, sectors, regions

Problems of

environmental concern related to the throughput

of

Firms e.g.

single plants, medium and big companies

Sectors e.g.

production sectors, chemical industry, construc- tion

Regions e.g.

total or main

throughput, mass flow balance, total material requirement associated with

substances, materials, products

Types of material flow related analysis

Stefan Bringezu

Multi-level accounting and indicator system

Source: after Moll and Femia 2005

Economy-wide MF Analysis (EW-MFA)

Specification of the flows (materials, substances)

Partition of the economic system (branches, products)

Level of detail

-

+

Level of aggregation

- +

Substance flow accounts Substance flow

indicators

Substance Flow Analysis (SFA) - MF Accounts for

particular materials - Natural Resource

Accounts Resource

specific flow indicators

Material System Analysis (MSA)

Life Cycle Inventories Product specific

MF indicators

Life Cycle Analysis/

assessments (LCA)

MF Accounts by branch (PIOT, NAMEA-

type accounts) Sectoral and

structural MF and RP indicators

Input-Output Analysis (IOA) Decomposition Analysis Environmental Input-Output

Analysis (eIOA)

Economy-wide MF Accounts Economy-wide MF Indicators

(total material resources, groups of materials)

Material Flow Analysis - recent history

•  Ayres and Kneese, late 1960s

•  The ConAccount network, since 1997 (www.conaccount.net)

•  International projects such as Resource Flows (1997) and Weight of Nations Report (2000)

•  MFA “re-invented” since 1992, Austria, Germany, Japan

•  International Society for Industrial Ecology, 
 since 2000

(www.is4ie.org)

Stefan Bringezu

Relevance to statistics in the European Union

•  EUROSTAT (2001): „Material Flow Accounts


and derived indicators - A methodological guide“

•  EUROSTAT (2001) (Ed.): Material use indicators 
 for the European Union 1980-1997;


and subsequent up-dates

•  Official MFA in EU Member States, e.g.

Austria, 


Belgium (parts), Denmark, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Finland, Spain, United Kingdom

•  EEA - reports considering resource flows 
 (e.g. Environmental Signals 2000, 2002;


„Kiev Report“ 2003; Outlook report 2005;

"Belgrade Report" 2007)

The OECD process:

Measuring material flows and resource productivity

Start 2003 (Tokyo)

Council Recommendations 2004, 2008

Series of workshops (Helsinki, Berlin, Rome, Tokyo)

Products (4/2008):

- Sythesis report

- Vol. I: The OECD guide

- Vol. II: The accounting framework - Vol. III: Inventory of country activities (coop. with EEA)

- Vol. IV: Implementing national MF Accounts ("guide light", jointly with Eurostat)

Stefan Bringezu

Scheme of the socio-industrial metabolism at the level of

Economy-wide MFA

Driving forces of the socio- industrial

metabolism in

terms of activities

and underlying

factors

Stefan Bringezu

Basic types of environmental pressure indicators

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Humans exert major pressures on the environment

GHG emissions

Mineral Resource

Flows

Land Use Change AIR

CLIMATE

SOIL

WATER

BIODIVERSITY Societies

Economies

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Billion Tons

Biomass Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Metal Ores Ind. & Constr. Minerals

"New Scarcity": growing implications of resource use

MOSUS Baseline scenario DEU

Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007

*not shown

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1,5 times

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Stefan Bringezu

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-> impacts of mining grow (waste, water, landscapes)

"New Scarcity": growing implications of resource use

Source: Mudd 2007, Australia

Foto Edgar Llamoca

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- fossil fuels, metals, other minerals, biomass (used + unused): 80 bill. t - earth excavation: 40 – 50 bill. t

- erosion in agriculture: 25 – 50 bill. t

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global adoption in 2050 -> 666 bill. t (factor 4-5)

-> Global adoption of current EU and/or US technologies and consumption patterns could lead to increase by factor 2 to 5

Global resource extraction expected to increase Some estimates

Source: Bringezu et al. 2009

Stefan Bringezu

Interim conclusion

Global extraction of mineral resources will grow

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 Environmental impacts may increase overproportionally

Global land use

(10⁹ hectare)

“agriculture“

deserts, glaciers, others settlements, infrastructures

2050

3.9 4.1

grass- lands

5.0 0.36 2000

crops1.5 1.5

arable land perma- 3.5

nent pastures

4.4 1.4 1961

3.1

agric. land:

+ 7% to 31%

cropland + 7% to 27%

+ 72% to 118%

+?

- 3% to -23%

-?

Sources: Benedikt-Kemp et al. 2002, MEA 2005, GEO 4, OECD (2008)

forests

Stefan Bringezu

Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will expand for feeding the world with protein rich meals

Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008

60 80 100 120 140 160

2004 2030

Index 2004 = 100

Population Cropland

Cropland per capita Cereals yields in DC

Meat consumption in DC

Cereal yields Cereal yields Cereal yields

Meat consumption

Interim conclusion

Only to feed the world population will require the expansion of global cropland

Any additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this

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Stefan Bringezu

Global production of liquid biofuels

Source: SCOPE 2009

2007: 1.8% of global fuel

2008 (estim.): ethanol 5.46%, biodiesel 1.5%

2007

Source: OECD/FAO 2008.

Source: SCOPE (2009).

Land use for fuel crops

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  Brasil:

-  Sugare cane 9 mill ha in 2008 (up 27% since 2007)

-  Potential area for soybeans: 100 mill ha (23 Mha in 2005) -  expansion at the expense of grasslands, savannahs

(Cerrado) and tropical forests

  Indonesia:

-  oil palm plantations often on cleared forest land (2/3) -  applications for expansion: 6 mio ha -> 25 mio ha -  forest clearing 1/4 on peat soils

Stefan Bringezu

GHG balance estimate*, in 2030

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0.17-0.76 Gt CO₂

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0.75 to 1.83 Gt CO₂

Implications of land use change

GHG emissions - mitigation by 1st generation biofuels questionable

*Ravindranath, N.H. et al. (2009) GHG Implications of Land Use and Land Conversion to Biofuel Crops. In: R. W. Howarth and S.

Bringezu (editors), Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Report of the Internatinal SCOPE Biofuels Project. (http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/)

Policy targeted BAU: biofuel demand will contribute to expansion of global crop land

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

2004 2030

square meter per capita

Global agricultural land for material biomass use in Germany

Global agricultural land for energetic biomass use in Germany

Global agricultural land for plant-based nutrition in Germany

Global agricultural land for animal-based nutrition in Germany

Domestic agricultural land in Germany

Cropland: World

Example of a net consuming country:

Global land use of Germany for biomass consumption

Source: Bringezu et al. 2008

Stefan Bringezu

Interim conclusion

Expansion of global cropland for fuel crops may lead to inreased net GHG emissions over the next 30 years as well as losses of biodiversity

This cannot be avoided by production standards and product certification as long as the demand for

biomass is growing globally (indirect land use changes)

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Wuppertal Institute

Stefan Bringezu 33

Material consumption decouples from GDP

October 2009

Total Material Requirement and economic growth

Stefan Bringezu

Total material consumption of abiotic resources

TMCabiot** (without excavation and erosion) – prelim. values

Source: Dittrich 2009, based on UN

Comtrade and Schütz and Bringezu 2008;

materialflowsnet

TMC_abiot** between 9 and 16

tons per capita

TMC_abiot** between 17 and 32

tons per capita TMC_abiot** between 33 and

65

tons per capita

TMC_abiot** > 65 tons per capita

TMC_abiot** between 2 and 4

tons per capita

TMC_abiot** < 2 tons per capita

(only Benin) TMC_abiot** without biomass, 2005

TMC_abiot** between 5 and 8

tons per capita

No data available or data with high uncertainties

Which way is China going to take?

China

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EU-15 1980 USA 1975

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factor 6

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increase in resource productivity

Stefan Bringezu

Physical trade balance of EC/EU considering hidden flows

Source: Schütz et al (2003)

PTB absolute PTB of HF

PTB TMR trade

Million tonnes

The EU

increasingly

uses foreign

resources

(import

surplus)

The importance of indirect flows is growing

Stefan Bringezu

Regional disparity of environmental pressure: Platinum-

Group-Metal production for Europe´s supply

Resource extraction prefers sparsely populated areas Conflicts and social control grow with population density

Population density (persons/km²)

Domestic TMR (t/cap)

Scource: Bringezu et al. 2009

Stefan Bringezu

Interim conclusion

Global resource extraction will grow further unless resource productivity will not increase drastically

Material productivity of industrial economies increases while resource and pollution intensive industries

(mining/refining) are dislocated (towards DCs and sparseley populated areas)

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The presentation

Stefan Bringezu

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Resource productivity increase (GDP/TMR)

Priority tasks for resource policies

Cross-sectoral challenges

GHG emissions (GWP)

Mineral extraction

(TMC_abiot) Global cropland

(GLUA_cropland)

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agricultural goods to levels which can be supplied sust.

(e.g. adjust biofuel quota)

Priority tasks for resource policies Sector specific challenges

Biomass

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Metals

Construction minerals

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construction

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Stefan Bringezu

Current features of metabolic development

Resource efficiency and carbon recycling

Future features of metabolic development

Resource efficiency and carbon recycling

Stefan Bringezu

Exemplary routes of carbon recycling

tonnes

Targets for long-term sustainable development of the

socio-industrial metabolism of the EU

Stefan Bringezu

  Resource efficient and recycling based industries

  Steady stocks societies

  Solarized technosphere

  Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

  Resource efficient and recycling based industries

  Steady stocks societies

  Solarized technosphere

  Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

Stefan Bringezu

  Balance between de-materialization and re-materialization

  Resource light product design

  Shift to more services, product-service-systems

  Recycling systems

- mining the technosphere ("urban mining")

- diversity of chemical elements -> challenge for separation technologies after collection

  Functional diversity of complex materials and micro/nano structures based on a common element matrix

- organic materials

- molecular design, nanotech, bionic

Resource efficient and recycling based industry

Characteristics

Environmental performance of different car types

‘

Stefan Bringezu

  Balance between de-materialization and re-materialization

  Resource light product design

  Shift to more services, product-service-systems

  Recycling systems

- mining the technosphere ("urban mining")

- diversity of chemical elements -> challenge for separation technologies after collection

  Functional diversity of complex materials and micro/nano structures based on a common element matrix

- organic materials

- molecular design, nanotech, bionic

Resource efficient and recycling based industry

Characteristics

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Resource efficient and recycling based industry

Major challenges

Stefan Bringezu

  Resource efficient and recycling based industries

  Steady stocks societies

  Solarized technosphere

  Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

The steady stocks society Characteristics

  Dynamic flow equilibrium

- of total technosphere stock (consisting of many durable product/

material stocks)

- concerning artefacts at different locations

  Approaching a saturation level of buildings and infrastructures

- living space per capita - roads etc.

  Shift from adding new constructions to renovation

  No net expansion of built-up land (114 ha/d, 2002-05)

  Improving quality of life in heterogenous regions

  Growing and shrinking infrastructures

  Resource light buildings "Featherweights" (also Vision One)

  Recycling and urban mining (- " -)

Stefan Bringezu

Downsizing of multi-storey buildings in Stollberg, Germany

Before the partial

deconstruction (above) and afterwards (below)

The steady stocks society Major challenges

  Stabilizing stock of fixed capital -> Re-directing investments into

a. renovation, quality improvement of existing buildings and infrastructures,

b. non-fixed capital formation ("brain-ware" instead of "hard- ware")

-> new assessment criteria for fixed capital changes in national accounts ?

  Stabilizing stocks of materials may not be sufficient to halt spread of built-up land ("flattening" and dispersion of buildings)

-> certificates for "built-up" land?

Stefan Bringezu

The steady stocks society Policy tasks

  fostering more efficient use of existing buildings

  expansion of highway system -> optimising existing network

  qualify paradigm of equal regional development

  minimise state owned fixed capital while considering social aspects and quality of public utilities

  market based instruments (esp. phasing out subsidies for additional constructions, land use certificates)

  resource light construction and renovation of buildings

  Resource efficient and recycling based industries

  Steady stocks societies

  Solarized technosphere

  Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

Stefan Bringezu

Solarized technosphere

Solar energy systems – potentials & trade-offs

  PV could supply 118 - 206 EJ/y electricity on 393,000 km2 (1 % of

"unused" land, mainly deserts)

  This would require 9 - 16 bill t/year mineral resource requirements (= double to triple TMR of Germany in 2000)

-> Renewable energy requires significant amount of non-renewables in the form of minerals

Biomass: captures 1-6% of solar radiation

Solar systems: 10-20% (currently, >40% reached, 60% under development)

Integration of solar energy functions into buildings and infrastructures

Photo credits see

Bringezu and Bleischwitz 2009

Stefan Bringezu

Solar Islands

© CSEM (Centre Cuisse d´Èlectronique e de Microtechnique), Hinderling et al. 2007

Solarized technosphere

Tasks for research, policy and technology development

  analyse non-renewable mineral flows associated with

renewable energy use and the related environmental impacts,

  assess the trade-offs and potential synergies between climate, energy and resource policies

  foster the development of integrated energy technologies (e.g.

multi-functional wall and roofs for the solarisation of buildings), and explore the potential of "solar islands"

Stefan Bringezu

  Resource efficient and recycling based industries

  Steady stocks societies

  Solarized technosphere

  Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy

Characteristics

  Bio-economy largely based on biomass use,

interwoven with and nested in natural eco-systems

  Balanced with regard to

- food vs. non-food (food first)

- production consistent with local environmental conditions (e.g.

risk of erosion, eutrophication): "Sustainable Production"

- domestic and foreign supply and consumption level not exceeding local, regional and global capacities:

"Sustainable Consumption"

  Long-term vision: Bioniconomy

- making use of biological principles ("bionic") - carbon recycling and industrial photosynthesis

Stefan Bringezu

Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy

Key challenges for technology development

  Extension of the bio-refinery principle to the whole economy:

cascading use of materials and energy from biomass (first as material, second for energy)

  Recycling and re-use of carbon from end-of-life products (in particular organic waste)

  Carbon capture from exhaust gases and ambient air -> carbon capture and re-use (CCU) instead of CCS

Visions of a sustainable resource use

A future vision in 2050: Brazil and Indonesia flourish with their natural resources

Stefan Bringezu

Balanced Bio-Economy and Bioniconomy

Policy tasks

  halt global expansion of cropland (e.g. by economic instruments to value natural ecosystems, REDD etc.)

  direct expansion of cropland to degraded land: research on potentials and trade-offs ongoing

  develop integrated land use planning for agriculture, forestry, settlements/infrastructure/mining, and conservation areas (also in DCs)

  monitor global land use for domestic consumption

  develop incentive framework to adjust consumption of biomass to levels which can sustainably be supplied:

- revisit targets and subsidies for biomass consumption (e.g.

biofuel quota and tax exemptions)

- foster material and energy efficiency (e.g. fuel efficiency of car fleets, minimisation of food waste, healthier diets)

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The presentation

Stefan Bringezu

The
Resource
Panel
was
established
to
:



o  provide
independent,
coherent
and
authorita5ve
scien5fic
assessments
of
policy
 relevance
on
the
sustainable
use
of
natural
resources
and
in
par5cular
their
 environmental
impacts
over
the
full
life
cycle


o  contribute
to
a
be:er
understanding
of
how
to
decouple
economic
growth

from
 environmental
degrada5on.


It
currently
has
four
working
groups:


o  Decoupling


o  ^Biofuels

o  Priori5za5on
of
products
and
materials


o  Global
metal
flows


Interna1onal
Panel



for
Sustainable
Resource
Management



Outlook: Institutions of a global sustainable resource

governance

Stefan Bringezu

Growth Competitiveness Index increases with Material Productivity

Note: GDP in PPP U.S. $; t-statistics and F-statistics significant with p<0.05; Source: Bringezu and Bleischwitz (2009)

Chances of employment grow with resource productivity of industrial branches

Note: Spearman rank correlation highly significant: r_s = 0.6756, p<0.001. Source: Bringezu et al. 2009

The example of Germany

Stefan Bringezu

Interim conclusion

Industries with enhanced resource productivity provide benefits

- for both climate protection and resource conservation - employment and international competitiveness

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The presentation

Stefan Bringezu

Conclusions and outlook (1/2)

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Conclusions and outlook (2/2)

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- resource efficient and recycling based industry - the steady stocks society

- solarised technosphere

- balanced bio-economy and bioniconomy

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experiences with resource policies considering both domestic and foreign resource use

Many thanks for your attention !

[email protected]

CONTRIBUTING EDITORS:

STEFAN BRINGEZU

AND

RAIMUND BLEISCHWITZ

ISBN: 978-1-906093-26-6 RETAIL PRICE: €50

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