Taiwan’s Democratic Hope?
How Partisans and Non-partisans Perceive the Function of Democracy
Cheng-shan (Frank) Liu NSYSU, Taiwan ROC
July 25, 2018 IPSA 2018
Francis Fukuyama (1992, 1995, 2012, 2014, 2015)
Could democracy be the cause of its own destruction?
How Taiwan’s data contribute to the reflection of democratic recession?
Partisans vs. non-partisans (independents)
• Most self-claiming non-partisans or intendent voters are less likely to be pure independent voters than
“closet partisans”
• Very little attention has been paid to whether or not and how partisanship and orientation toward
rejecting party identity associate with their views
about democracy.
Data for Exploratory Data Analysis
• Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study:
Survey of the 2016 Presidential and Legislative Elections (TEDS2016)
• January 17 ~ April 28, 2017 (N=1,690).
• Yes, it should be a representative sample.
25 Survey Questions drawn from TEDS2016
How closely do you follow politics on TV, radio, newspapers, or the Internet?
How interested would you say you are in politics?
Some people say: “People like me don’t have any say about what the government does”.
Some people say: “Sometimes politics seems so complicated that a person like me cannot really understand what is going on.”
Some people say: “Public officials do not care much about what people like me think.”
Some people say: “Most decisions made by the government are correct.”
Some people say: “Government officials often waste a lot of money we pay in taxes.”
When the government decides important policies, do you think “public welfare” is its first priority?
You feel you understand the most important political issues of this country.
Most politicians are trustworthy.
Politicians are the main problem in our country (i.e. Taiwan).
Having a strong leader in government is good for our country even if the leader bends the rules to get things done.
The people, and not politicians, should make our most important policy decisions.
Most politicians care only about the interests of the rich and powerful.
Would you say that over the past twelve months, the state of the economy in Taiwan has gotten much better, gotten somewhat better, stayed about the same, gotten
somewhat worse, or gotten much worse?
Would you say that in the forthcoming year, the state of the economy of Taiwan will get better, stay about the same, or get worse?
Different people have different opinions about voting. Some people think that voting is a responsibility, and you should vote even if you don’t like any of the candidates or parties. Other people think that it is all right to vote or not to vote, and the decision depends on how you feel about the candidates or parties. Do you think that voting is a responsibility, or do you think that it is all right either to vote or not to vote?
Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion?
1 Democracy is preferable to any other kind of regime; 2 In some circumstances, an authoritarian regime – a dictatorship can be preferable to a democratic system.
3 For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what kind of regime we have.
Some people say that no matter who people vote for, it won’t make any difference to what happens. Others say that who people vote for can make a big difference to what happens.
Where would you place yourself? (a 5-point scale)
In Taiwan, some people think they are Taiwanese. There are also some people who think that they are Chinese. Do you consider yourself as Taiwanese, Chinese or both?
Do you believe that cross-Strait relations will become warmer, more tense, or remain unchanged?
I like to know what you think about each of our political parties. After I read the name of a political party, please rate it on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means you strongly dislike that party and 10 means that you strongly like that party. If I come to a party you haven heard of or you feel you do not know enough about, just say so. The first party is KMT. (a 10-point scale) Using the same scale, where would you place, DPP?
Q1. Do you usually think of yourself as close to any particular party?
Q1a. Do you feel yourself a little closer to one of the political parties than the others?
Two factors / latent
variables emerge from the combination of
the set of the 25
survey questions.
Major Components of “Trust in Government” (X-axis)
• (dis)trust of politicians
• “most politicians care only about the interests of the rich and powerful”
• “politicians are the main problem in our country”
• “most politicians are trustworthy”
• (dis)trust of public officials
• “public officials do not care much about what people like me think”
• “government officials often waste a lot of money we pay in taxes”
• (dis)trust in government
• political self-efficacy
• political interest
Major Components of “Zeal for Democracy” (Y-axis)
• Party identification with the DPP or KMT
• ethnic identity
• prospective views about economy
• democracy as a preferable regime
• voting matters
• voting as a responsibility
• interest in politics
Data for 2nd Stage Exploratory Data Analysis
• Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study:
Survey of the 2018 Presidential Election (TEDS2008P)
• June 17 ~ August 12, 2008 (N=1,905).
• Yes, it is a representative sample.
• 16 questions drawn to match TEDS2016
unexpected findings
Democratic values are associated with (non)partisanship & party identification!?
Populism not yet found in Taiwan
Think about KMT supporters’ value other than democracy.
Beijing’s role in Taiwan’s partisan competition
KMT supporters’ perception about efficient government vs. democratic government
Exploratory data analysis
approach for theory development
Data-assisted meaning netting
Future Studies
Robustness check with more constructed datasets Creative variables + MCA for more meanings
cross-national comparison for theory development
