Becoming One China or Creating a New Country?
Taiwan Voters’
Political Identification Profile
Frank Cheng-shan Liu May 10, 2019 @ KU Leuven
Course Lecture for “China and Global Politics”
Today’s talk can be
politically sensitive.
“Please feel free to leave or put on your earphone.”
Outline
• Brief History about Taiwan Identity Politics
• Updated the Profile of Taiwanese Identity Politics
• Myths and Prospective
• Discussion
TWO CHINAS !?
• “Who” Owns the Flag? Whose Flag?
KMT and ROC
• Kuomintang / Chinese Nationalist Party
• Founded in 1884 by Dr. Sun Yat-Sen
2015 Taiwan’s
official
South China
Sea Map
Free China Magazine
• Free China” Magazine (1949.11~ 1960)
• From supporting Chiang to opposing Chiang
• 1954 – Lei-Zhen 雷震
• 1960 – the failure of “China Democratic Party”
• Cultivated democratic movement in the 1970s.
1979. 12. 9 A rally for the World Human Right Day.
1979.12.13 Kaohsiung
1979. A teacher took her students cheered
for the arrest of the “criminals” .
1986.10.7 C.C.K revealed to Mrs. Katherine Graham (Washington Post) that ROC is going to uplift the martial law.
The March Movement and Its Statue of Spirit
左：1990年李登輝與民進黨主席 黄信介在探討民主憲政改革的“國 是會議”握手
李登 輝與 蔣經 國
Taiwan’s Political Parties
• 2008.8.12 Taiwan Communist Party registered as the 141
stpolitical party
• There are now 214 valid registered parties by 2019.5.
https://party.moi.gov.tw/pgms/politics/party!list.action
• Two political camps: Pan-Blue and Pan-Green
2008 Presidential Election
2012 Presidential Election
2016 presidential election
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2016-01-17/69309
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2016-01-17/69309
https://www.cmmedia.com.tw/home/articles/13011
before 1983
1983 ~ 2003 2003.9
2008
Taiwan’s textbook reform
started in1994, practiced in 1997,
and
established in 2006
Outline
• Brief History about Taiwan Identity Politics
• Updated the Profile of Taiwanese Identity Politics
• Myths and Prospective
• Discussion
Research Questions
• What are the determinant factors that
influence Taiwanese people’s identification with the state, the nation, and the
relationship with PRC, among all that scholars and observers expect to be important?
• How people in Taiwan think about
themselves in terms of nation and country?
• How do Taiwanese think about future? Do Taiwanese people as a whole remain the legitimate foundation of ROC on Taiwan?
Concepts and Definition
• State Identification (guojia rentong)
• National Identification (minzu rentong)
• Ethnic identification (zuchun renton)
• “Independence”
• “separationism”
• “unification” and “reunification”
Data
• 2013 Survey (January 23 to February 4, 2013), N=1,078
• 2014 Survey (January 10 to 24, 2014), N=1,072
Measurement Generations of
• 1st generation (born by 1931)
• 2nd generation (born 1932~1953)
• 3rd generation (born 1954~1968)
• 4th generation (born 1969~1978)
• 5th generation (born 1979~1988)
• 6th generation(born 1989~1993)
Students Protest against ECFA
NYT 2014.3.30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=t57URqSp5Ew By May 10, 2019: 7,935,043 views
Do you find thing strange in this video?
Hint: date
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9MoBXGEEiM
Back to Jan 15, 2016:
will this KMT
campaign
poster work?
Published on Jan 15, 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=Xl6-o3woKd4
Now Let’s Talk about One China
Or at least think about its meanings
1993 @Hong Kong
2015.11 @Singapore
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=mVYNZUm790w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j23Eth2aio
Conclusion
• Taiwan’s identity politics is a result of historical conflicts.
• Taiwanese people’s public
opinion about mainland China policies is driven by national and country identification.
• Relationship with Mainland China: more like friends than family.
• Rejection to unification has become a consensus.
Discussion
• Legitimacy of ROC in Taiwan
• Is ROC the last greatest common denominator?
• How to re-conceptualize
“Taiwan independence”?
• Democratic Prejudice vs.
Democratic confidence
• Future Studies:
• Taiwanese peoples’
perception about the roles of the U.S. and the rise of PRC.
• A new battery of
measurement questions for the concept of state/country identification.
Liu, F. C.-S. (2016). Taiwanese voters’ political identification profile, 2013–2014: Becoming one China or creating a new country? Asian Survey, 56(5), 931–957.
Liu, F. C.-S., & Li, Y. (2016). Generation matters:
Taiwan’s perceptions of mainland China and
attitudes towards cross-strait trade talks. Journal of Contemporary China, 104, 263–279.
NOW, WHAT DO YOU SEE?
Contact Info
• Frank Cheng-shan Liu
• Professor,
Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-Sen University Kaohsiung, Taiwan
• csliu@mail.nsysu.edu.tw
Measurement of State Identification
• 2013 data:
• Some people say that our country‘s name is Taiwan. Do you agree?
• Some people say that our country's name is Republic of China (Zhonghuaminguo). Do you agree?
• Some people say that we should be proud of
being a citizen of Republic of China. Do you agree?
• Some people say that Taiwanese should establish own country. Do you agree?
• Some people say that Hong-Kong and Shang-Hai are foreign cities. Do you agree?
• 2014 data:
• Do you hope that one day ROC changes its name to Taiwan or Republic of Taiwan?
• Do you hope that Taiwan and the mainland China become one country?
Measurement of National Identification
• 2013:
• Some call themselves Taiwanese, some Chinese and some both. What about you?
• 2014:
• Some people say they are Taiwanese, some say Chinese, and some say both.
What about you?
Measurement of Unification Preference
• 2013 data:
• If both China’s and Taiwan’s political system are democratic, do you like to see the unification of Taiwan and
China?
• Some people say that the two sides of the Strait ultimately will be come one country. Do you agree?
• 2014 data:
• Do you hope that Taiwan and the
mainland China become one country?
