CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016

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Government of Macao Special Administrative Region Statistics and Census Service

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DECEMBER 2016

- The Composite CPI for December (108.86) increased by 1.44% year-on-year, with notable increase in the price indices of Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, Education and Transport.

- The Composite CPI rose by 0.17% month-to-month. New arrival of winter clothing and footwear, higher charges for package tours and rising airfares and gasoline prices drove up the price indices of Clothing & Footwear, Recreation & Culture and Transport. On the other hand, the price indices of Miscellaneous Goods & Services, Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco and Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages saw decline owing to lower prices of gold jewellery, alcoholic beverages, vegetables and fruits.

- The inflation rate for 2016 stood at 2.37%. Higher rentals for parking spaces, dearer charges for eating out, rising property management fees and increases in prices of motor cars and cigarettes together pushed up the annual inflation rate by 1.77 percentage points.

Consumer Price Index 10/2013 – 09/2014 = 100

Composite

CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Average index value for 2016 108.23 108.35 107.20 For December 2016

Index value 108.86 108.97 107.96

Year-on-year change (%) 1.44 1.33 2.42

Month-to-month change (%) 0.17 0.19 0.01

Annualised change (%) 2.37 2.30 2.98

Year-on-year change for the fourth

quarter of 2016 (%) 1.43 1.30 2.59

Movements of the CPI

103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Index Value Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Changes of the Composite CPI for December 2016 %

Sections of Goods and Services Weight Year- on- year

Month- to-

month Annualised

Index 100.00 1.44 0.17 2.37

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.97 1.85 -0.17 2.88 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.92 7.92 -0.62 21.73

Clothing & Footwear 6.46 1.86 3.00 -2.33

Housing & Fuels 26.70 -1.45 -0.12 0.61

Household Goods & Furnishings 3.29 0.65 0.06 2.54

Health 3.06 3.86 -0.07 4.14

Transport 10.96 6.69 0.81 6.99

Communication 2.53 -1.92 -0.05 -0.90

Recreation & Culture 4.79 -0.39 1.41 0.52

Education 2.91 7.38 - 8.39

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 9.41 1.02 -0.80 1.03 - Absolute value equals zero

Year-on-Year Change

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

% Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Annualised Change

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5

% Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B

Alameda Dr. Carlos d' Assumpção, No. 411-417, Dynasty Plaza, 17^th floor, Macao Tel: (853) 8399 5311 Fax: (853) 2830 7825 E-mail: [email protected] Official Statistics. Reproduction of these data is allowed provided the source is quoted.

www.dsec.gov.mo 2017.01

2016

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Annual Average Composite CPI

Section of Goods and Services Weight Index for 2016

Year-on-year Change Contribution to the Year-on-year Change of the

Index for 2016

2016 2015

%

Index 100.00 108.23 2.37 4.56 100.00

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 28.97 109.14 2.88 4.87 35.30

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.92 143.62 21.73 17.33 9.39

Clothing & Footwear 6.46 98.13 -2.33 -0.08 -6.02

Housing & Fuels 26.70 110.85 0.61 8.06 7.20

Household Goods & Furnishings 3.29 108.24 2.54 5.00 3.52

Health 3.06 111.17 4.14 5.67 5.40

Transport 10.96 108.68 6.99 0.83 31.05

Communication 2.53 98.61 -0.90 -0.26 -0.90

Recreation & Culture 4.79 102.74 0.52 1.23 1.01

Education 2.91 112.00 8.39 4.89 10.06

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 9.41 104.19 1.03 2.39 3.98

Movements of the Composite CPI by Month for 2016 %

Month Index

value

Year- year on-

Month-

month to- Annualised ▪

▪

The month-to-month changes of the Composite CPI for 2016 varied between -0.36%

and 0.96%. The Composite CPI for February showed the largest month-to-month increase of the year (+0.96%) on account of higher charges for package tours during the Lunar New Year period, as well as rising prices of vegetables, fruits, fresh fish and seafood due to the cold weather and pre-festival effects, etc.

Reduction in charges for package tours, airfares and vegetable prices after the Lunar New Year, as well as seasonal sale of winter clothing caused the Composite CPI to fall by 0.36% month-to-month in March.

The year-on-year changes of the monthly Composite CPI varied between 1.33%

and 3.88%. The CPI growth slowed down continuously since February owing to lower rentals for dwellings and reduced electricity charges. The year-on-year growth rebounded in November on account of higher charges for eating out, dearer rentals for parking spaces, as well as increases in property management fees and motor car prices.

The annualised growth of the Composite CPI decelerated from 4.48% in January to 2.37% in December. Analysed by section, the annualised growth of the price indices of Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, Education and Transport accelerated due to increased prices of cigarettes and motor cars, as well as rising tuition fees and rentals for parking spaces. On the other hand, receding rentals for dwellings and reduced charges for electricity and package tours tapered off the increase of the price indices of Housing & Fuels and Recreation & Culture. Moreover, the indices of Clothing & Footwear and Communication saw continuous decline.

January 107.36 3.81 0.04 4.48

February 108.39 3.88 0.96 4.36

March 108.00 3.31 -0.36 4.21

April 108.03 3.02 0.03 4.09

May 108.17 2.64 0.14 3.90

June 108.29 2.26 0.11 3.67

July 108.35 2.08 0.05 3.45

August 108.10 1.65 -0.23 3.20

September 108.18 1.59 0.08 2.98

October 108.36 1.33 0.17 2.75

November 108.67 1.53 0.29 2.56

December 108.86 1.44 0.17 2.37

2 | Consumer Price Index December 2016

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Movements of the Composite CPI by Section for 2016

Section of Goods and Services

Year-on-Year Change

Contribution to the Change of the

Composite CPI Movements of the CPI

%

Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.88 35.30 Notable increase was observed in the price indices of vegetables (+9.79%), fresh, chilled or frozen pork (+7.42%), fish & seafood (+3.80%) and eating out (+2.80%), while the indices of rice, edible oils & fats and fresh, chilled or frozen beef decreased by 3.81%, 2.83% and 1.94% respectively. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages provided the largest contribution to the increase in the overall index, driving up the annual inflation rate by 0.84 percentage points.

Among the food items, vegetable prices saw significant increase as compared with 2015, with the average retail prices of hairy gourds, Chinese cabbages and carrots rising by 19.16%, 16.12% and 13.84% respectively year-on-year; meanwhile notable decline was observed in the prices of rice from Vietnam (-4.70%), rice from Thailand (-2.74%) and oranges (-1.73%).

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 21.73 9.39 Price index of tobacco went up by 33.21% due to the rise in cigarette prices, while that of alcoholic beverages rose by 0.20%.

Clothing & Footwear -2.33 -6.02 Price index of Clothing & Footwear recorded the largest decrease in 2016. Price indices of footwear and clothing dropped by 4.29% and 1.70% respectively, with the indices of men’s footwear, other articles of clothing & clothing accessories and women’s footwear falling by 5.82%, 3.58% and 3.47% respectively.

Housing & Fuels 0.61 7.20 Higher property management fees and rising charges for maintenance & repair of dwellings pushed the price indices of miscellaneous services related to dwellings and maintenance & repair of dwellings up by 19.03% and 6.89% respectively; meanwhile, the growth of price index of Housing & Fuels slowed down due to decreases in rentals for dwellings, electricity charges and Liquefied Petroleum Gas price.

Household Goods & Furnishings 2.54 3.52 Rising wages of domestic helpers drove up the price index of household goods &

services by 3.51%. Price indices of household tools & equipment (+1.60%) and glassware, tableware & household utensils (+0.41%) also increased. Meanwhile the index of household textiles (-1.48%) saw a large decline.

Health 4.14 5.40 Price index of inpatient services (+9.87%) saw a marked increase, while the indices of paramedical services (e.g. physical therapy and medical checkup) and dental services of outpatient services rose by 6.95% and 5.11% respectively.

Transport 6.99 31.05 The contribution of Transport to the increase in the overall index was second to that of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages in 2016, pushing up the annual inflation rate by 0.74 percentage points. Price indices of other services related to vehicles and purchase of vehicles rose by 16.85% and 7.82% respectively on account of rising rentals for parking spaces and increased vehicle prices due to higher vehicle tax in the end of 2015. On the contrary, lower airfares and gasoline prices led the price indices of passenger transport by air and automotive fuels & lubricants to fall by 9.56% and 5.03% respectively.

Communication -0.90 -0.90 Price index of Communication decreased further in 2016. Price index of telecommunications equipment dropped by 10.72% due to receding prices of telecommunications equipment, while the index of telecommunications services increased by 0.13%.

Recreation & Culture 0.52 1.01 Price indices of package tours & hotels (-4.08%) and audio-visual, photographic &

information processing equipment (-3.35%) showed decrease; meanwhile, price indices of cultural services and recreational & sporting services went up by 7.09% and 4.17% respectively, leading to a year-on-year increase in the price index of Recreation and Culture.

Education 8.39 10.06 As the increase in tuition fees of the schools not joining the free education network was higher than the rise in Government subsidies, price indices of secondary education (+22.92%) and pre-primary & primary education (+20.05%) registered notable growth. Meanwhile, price index of tertiary education dropped by 1.84%.

Miscellaneous Goods & Services 1.03 3.98 Except for the decrease in the price index of other personal effects such as women’s handbags (-8.18%), price indices of all other groups recorded increase. Dearer charges for children nursery & elderly care services, tuitorial classes in schools, beauty & hairdressing services and medical insurance drove up the price indices of social protection, other services, hairdressing & beauty services and insurance by 5.90%, 4.41%, 3.91% and 2.11% respectively.

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Historical Data for the Composite CPI %

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual inflation rate 5.81 6.11 5.50 6.05 4.56

For December 2016

Year-on-year change 6.81 5.83 5.72 5.59 3.73

Month-to-month change 0.74 0.85 0.79 0.29 0.25

Annualised change 5.81 6.11 5.50 6.05 4.56

Year-on-year change for the

fourth quarter 6.72 5.58 5.89 5.96 3.89

Explanatory Note

Methodology

The CPI series with the base period of October 2013 to September 2014 were revised according to the results of the 2012/2013 Household Budget Survey.

Due to the varying consumption patterns of households, the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) compiles three separate CPI series after excluding the lowest and the highest 10% of households in spending. The Composite CPI reflects the impact of price changes on the general households. CPI-A relates to about 50% of the households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP10,000 to MOP29,999. The CPI-B relates to about 30% of the households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP30,000 to MOP54,999.

The CPI-basket contains 761 items of goods and services. In 2016, an average of 8,373 prices were collected every month from 1,187 outlets for the compilation of CPI.

Glossary

Base period : The period for which the value of the index is set equal to 100, and the index of the base period is used to compare with index in other periods.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) : An economic indicator which measures changes in the price level of consumption goods and services acquired or used by households.

Contribution to the change of CPI : The percentage change in the price index of a section, class or group to the change in the CPI.

Inflation : An indicator derived from the CPI to reflect the changes in general consumer prices.

Weight : The relative importance of the goods and services as measured by their shares in the total consumption of households.

For additional information:

http://www.dsec.gov.mo/e/cpi.aspx